When the Big One hits the U.S.

July 20, 2015 • 11:00 am

Professor Ceiling Cat has an article that he highly recommends you read. It’s in the latest New Yorker, and is called “The really big one” by Kathryn Schulz (subtitle: “An earthquake will destroy a sizable portion of the coastal Northwest. The question is when.”). It’s a superbly researched and written account (also free to access) of what’s going to happen when the Big Earthquake hits not California, but the Pacific Northwest.  The scenario is not pretty, with at least 30,000 deaths and massive destruction of the infrastructure. Here’s a short excerpt:

When the next very big earthquake hits, the northwest edge of the continent, from California to Canada and the continental shelf to the Cascades, will drop by as much as six feet and rebound thirty to a hundred feet to the west—losing, within minutes, all the elevation and compression it has gained over centuries. Some of that shift will take place beneath the ocean, displacing a colossal quantity of seawater. (Watch what your fingertips do when you flatten your hand.) The water will surge upward into a huge hill, then promptly collapse. One side will rush west, toward Japan. The other side will rush east, in a seven-hundred-mile liquid wall that will reach the Northwest coast, on average, fifteen minutes after the earthquake begins. By the time the shaking has ceased and the tsunami has receded, the region will be unrecognizable. Kenneth Murphy, who directs FEMA’s Region X, the division responsible for Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Alaska, says, “Our operating assumption is that everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast.”

In the Pacific Northwest, everything west of Interstate 5 covers some hundred and forty thousand square miles, including Seattle, Tacoma, Portland, Eugene, Salem (the capital city of Oregon), Olympia (the capital of Washington), and some seven million people. When the next full-margin rupture happens, that region will suffer the worst natural disaster in the history of North America. Roughly three thousand people died in San Francisco’s 1906 earthquake. Almost two thousand died in Hurricane Katrina. Almost three hundred died in Hurricane Sandy. FEMA projects that nearly thirteen thousand people will die in the Cascadia earthquake and tsunami. Another twenty-seven thousand will be injured, and the agency expects that it will need to provide shelter for a million displaced people, and food and water for another two and a half million. “This is one time that I’m hoping all the science is wrong, and it won’t happen for another thousand years,” Murphy says

In fact, the science is robust, and one of the chief scientists behind it is Chris Goldfinger. Thanks to work done by him and his colleagues, we now know that the odds of the big Cascadia earthquake [magnitude 8.0-8.6] happening in the next fifty years are roughly one in three. The odds of the very big one [magnitude 8.7-9.2]  are roughly one in ten.

. . . Together, the sloshing, sliding, and shaking will trigger fires, flooding, pipe failures, dam breaches, and hazardous-material spills. Any one of these second-order disasters could swamp the original earthquake in terms of cost, damage, or casualties—and one of them definitely will. Four to six minutes after the dogs start barking, the shaking will subside. For another few minutes, the region, upended, will continue to fall apart on its own. Then the wave will arrive, and the real destruction will begin.

Don’t miss this article. If you live west of Interstate 5, you may want to move, as the quake is way overdue.

h/t: Diane G.

Arizona, part deux

July 20, 2015 • 9:30 am

The first of the Arizona travelogues was yesterday’s post on Kelly Houle’s art, which I saw when we visited the home she shares with her husband Ken and her son Benny in Mesa. After looking at the art, we took the short drive to Tempe to pick up Ben Goren.  The thermometer in the car gave the outside temperature (top right): 113° F is the equivalent of 45° C!  That temperature is not unusual for the Phoenix area this time of year, but oy, was it hot!

Temp

Here’s Ben, posing (at my request) next to his 1968 Volkswagen Bus, the vehicle that all of us in who hitchhiked in the 1960s prayed to see coming down the road. VW buses were always driven by hippies: a guaranteed ride when you were thumbing. Ben says this vehicle has about 750,000 miles or more on the original body, though the engine has been replaced several times and a bit more work has been done.

Ben VW

Ben’s trumpet, carefully ensconced in a foam-lined plastic case:

Ben trumpet

We all know that Ben allows Baihu to scratch and bite the hell out of his arms, the sign of true fealty of Cat Staff. Here’s a photo of some of the damage:

Ben Baihu scratches

The Dewey-Humboldt home of Karen and Mike Houle, Kelly’s parents, where we spent a pleasant three days and nights chewing the fat, both literally and figuratively, and hanging out on the front porch (not shown), watching the sun set and Venus and Jupiter appear.

D-H house

An “appetizer” before the first night’s Italian meal. (Karen is of Italian descent.) Just the ticket with the nice Rioja I brought. Best not to eat too much, as plenty more is coming (see below):

D-H, antipasto

A family style Italian meal: pasta with sausages, bread, salad, and Italian wine. From left to right: Kelly, Ken, Karen, Mike, and Ben. This being a table full of heathens, there was no grace, just occasional discussion of the follies of believers.

DH Sausages

And breakfast with bagels, and italian vegetable-and-egg scramble, English muffins, homemade raspberry jam, fried ountry ham, great coffee, and orange juice.

D-H breakfast

Ben considers himself a secular Jew, although only his dad is Jewish. When I told him that his mom had to be Jewish for him to be considered Jewish under THE LAW, he said that he underwent a “conversion” when he was young. I’m not sure that such an act is possible.

I told Ben that if he wanted to violate Jewish dietary law in the biggest way possible, he should eat ham and cream cheese on a bagel. That violates the “no ham” law as well as the “no mixing meat and dairy in one meal” law. He proceeded to do just that. He said it was good, but I prefer lox on my bagel with the schmear.

D-h, ben nonkosher

Mike Houle is an accomplished woodworker (he made the box for Kelly’s book that I highlighted yesterday), and has an immaculate and well-appointed shop in a separate building. Here it is: I’m sure Kelly inherited (culturally or genetically) Mike’s artistic abilities, craftsmanship, and penchant for order.

D-H Mike woodshop

Here’s a pine knot he carved into a grotesque figure:

DH Mike carving

Ben with his BIG LENS photographing the goldfinches at the birdfeeder. You can see the photos in this morning’s “readers’ wildlife” post.

Ben shooting goldfinches

As Kelly is interested in typesetting her miniature books, we stopped in to see Schuyler (Sky) Shipley at his Skyline Type Foundry in Prescott, one of the very few places in the world that still handcasts metal type for use in printing presses. Sky is a fascinating character: he flew 747s as a commercial pilot, and, after retirement, took up making type and collecting and using antique machines connected with printing. He also flies a restored Lockeed P-38 Lightning training plane, and plays bass in a local jazz band. The man is a polymath.

Printer
Here’s one of the machines Sky uses to make type. I believe it’s from the late 19th century. It’s very complicated and requires exquisitely manipulated tuning to make usable type. The hopper in the top is where the metal (a mixture of lead and other metals) is kept molten.


Printer type machine

The end product is superb. I believe Sky can make about 2000 different kinds of type. Here’s one set, which of course has multiple copies of most letters, necessary for setting entire lines of type. The price is remarkably low: this hand-made set goes for about $30.

Printer type

Here’s Sky’s collection of antique printing machines, most of which he uses. They range in size from tiny ones (perfect for Kelly’s miniature books) to big ones good for printing newspapers.

Printer, presses

A linotype machine, which replaced time-consuming hand setting of letters with a typewriter-like scheme in which each slug was set by typing a key (you can see the tricolored keyboard at the bottom). This was the way most newspapers were printed until a few decades ago, when offset printing run by computers eliminated the need for metal type. Sky wants to keep the old craftsmanship going.

Printer linotype

Sky’s Foundry is filled with weird geegaws that he’s collected, like this miniature electric chair in a bottle. He was told that it was made by a prison inmate, but doesn’t believe it.
Printer electric chair

Sedona, the Woo Capital of America (and also the home of rich people who go there in winter) is in a superb setting of red rocks, hills, and outcrops. It’s very New-Agey, with stores selling crystals claimed to have various healing powers, and much palaver about “conjunctions”, “vortexes,” and “harmonics.” There are also many ritzy art galleries catering to the tourists who flock here.

Sedona

Well, if you must have a Catholic church, this one has a lovely setting, embedded right in the rocks.

Sedona church

Lunch at a local restaurant: typical New Mexican food, which is Hispanic but heavy on green chiles. I had a chile relleno (“stuffed chile”: a whole chile stuffed with cheese, or sometimes meat), then battered and deep-fried. This one was coated with a blue-corn batter, which was scrumptious. The chile relleno is one of the glories of Mexican cooking.

Sedona lunch rellenos

A kitschy kat in a local art gallery:

Sedona kitty

We then went into Prescott, a cute little town not far from Dewey-Humboldt. When we stopped in a brewery for lunch, Kelly revealed to my astonishment that she had never tasted beer in her life. Not a sip! So I inveigled her into taking her first sip (remember W. C. Fields’ “The Fatal Glass of Beer”?), and photographed that epochal moment.

She didn’t like it much. This was a local brew made with chocolate, which I thought was good, though far too rich to be a session pint.

Note the use of two hands to hold the glass, a sign of someone who’s not hoisted many brewskis:

Kelly's first beer

We finally went home to drop off Ben and take me to my car, as I was headed for Las Cruces. When we pulled into Ben’s driveway, Baihu was sitting in the window with a most reproachful look:

Z Baihu at home

Thanks to Kelly and Ken, and to Mike and Karen, for their generous hospitality.

Readers’ Wildlife Photos: Gulls & Eagles redux

July 20, 2015 • 8:00 am

by Grania

Reader Joe Dickinson wrote in saying:

I was surprised by Grania’s post on eagle vs. gull combat.  When we lived in Utah, we often saw gulls and eagles in close proximity at Farmington Bay, which supports one of the largest wintering populations of Bald Eagles (Haliacetus leucocephalus) in the lower 48 states.  We never saw any sign of aggression on the one hand or particular concern on the other.

That’s interesting, so I thought I should check this out in case it was a freak occurrence, however Birds Flight confirms that Bald Eagles do in fact prey on gulls.

Bald eagles are carnivores and they are opportunistic feeders. These birds of prey predominantly feed on fish, salmon, and trout across Pacific Northwest. In winter, they prefer to consume carrion. Bald eagles are also capable to devour large mammals like whales together with the carcasses of ungulates. These types of eagles also feed on garbage dumps. Other bald eagles diet includes raccoons, beavers, hares, muskrats, rabbits, lizards, and deer.

As far as avian prey is concerned, coots, egrets, ducks, grebes, alcids, gulls, and geese are mostly favored. Though occasionally, bald eagles also prey on birds in flight. These species rely on swans, reptiles, crustaceans, and amphibians. Bald eagles plunges over the water to grasp the fish at the surface with its strong talons. These birds of prey tend to eat by one claw and tearing down with the other. Other foods include foxes, coyotes, gulls, vultures, and corvids.

Nevertheless, Joe was able to supply some gorgeous photos of the two co-existing peacefully. Maybe gulls are just gullible. (Sorry). Or perhaps plentiful fish mean that gulls are not prime food source in this area.

gulls & eagles3

 

gulls & eagles1

 

gulls & eagles2

 

 

Monday: Hili Dialogue

July 20, 2015 • 3:50 am

by Grania

Good morning everyone. Reports of my “retirement” may have been a little overstated yesterday. I’m not gone, just on reduced hours. Bl*gging will continue, as much as everyone is able.

Today’s Hili is a little obscure, and requires some background. As you know Małgorzatą and Andrzej run a Polish rationalist website of their own, Listy z naszego sadu with Madam Hili as Editor In Chief. They translate many articles from multiple sources on science, secularism, religion, politics etc.

Małgorzatą explains:

Hili just gave her approval to the decision to publish the interview of Michael Shermer by Sam Harris.

A. Have you already read Sam Harris?
Hili: Yes, tasty.

P1030100
In Polish:

Ja: Czytałaś już Sama Harrisa?
Hili: Tak, smaczny.

Thanks to Grania!

July 19, 2015 • 3:27 pm

You’ve doubtless noticed that the vast majority of all the posts on this site since I’ve left Chicago have been put up not by me, but by Grania, who has kept the website ticking along—nay, flourishing—in my partial absence.  This past week she’s been on “holiday,” but much of her time during that week has been devoted to keeping up this site.

When she goes back to work tomorrow, things will drop off as I’ll be headed to Texas and Louisiana with only sporadic Internet connection. So while I get the chance, I’d like to thank her, and so should you all, for her great and numerous posts. I suspect that she’ll put her hand in once in a while until I return to Chicago, but we shouldn’t expect the effort she’s put out—effort given without any recompense except my thanks (and I’ve promised her elebenty gazillion beers if we ever meet!).

Thanks, Grania!

Up close and personal with Pluto

July 19, 2015 • 12:47 pm

by Grania

Pending a few more black and white images still to be taken, the New Horizons odyssey to Pluto is done. It may still have work to do in the Kuiper Belt, but that has not yet been decided.

They’ve already learned some new things, such as Pluto is geologically active. C.C. Peterson at The Space Writer writes:

In the center left of Pluto’s vast heart-shaped feature – informally named “Tombaugh Regio” – lies a vast, craterless plain that appears to be no more than 100 million years old, and is possibly still being shaped by geologic processes. This frozen region is north of Pluto’s icy mountains and has been informally named Sputnik Planum (Sputnik Plain), after Earth’s first artificial satellite. The surface appears to be divided into irregularly-shaped segments that are ringed by narrow troughs. Features that appear to be groups of mounds and fields of small pits are also visible. The blocky appearance of some features is due to compression of the image.

NASA/JHUAPL/SWRI

From NASA’s New Horizons site:

This fascinating icy plains region — resembling frozen mud cracks on Earth — has been informally named “Sputnik Planum” (Sputnik Plain) after the Earth’s first artificial satellite. It has a broken surface of irregularly-shaped segments, roughly 12 miles (20 kilometers) across, bordered by what appear to be shallow troughs. Some of these troughs have darker material within them, while others are traced by clumps of hills that appear to rise above the surrounding terrain. Elsewhere, the surface appears to be etched by fields of small pits that may have formed by a process called sublimation, in which ice turns directly from solid to gas, just as dry ice does on Earth.

Scientists have two working theories as to how these segments were formed. The irregular shapes may be the result of the contraction of surface materials, similar to what happens when mud dries. Alternatively, they may be a product of convection, similar to wax rising in a lava lamp. On Pluto, convection would occur within a surface layer of frozen carbon monoxide, methane and nitrogen, driven by the scant warmth of Pluto’s interior.

You can view a simulation of the flyover here created from the closest-approach images.

There’s also an amazingly detailed picture of the mountains at the equator.

Credits: NASA/JHU APL/SwRI

From the NASA site again:

A new close-up image of an equatorial region near the base of Pluto’s bright heart-shaped feature shows a mountain range with peaks jutting as high as 11,000 feet (3,500 meters) above the surface of the icy body.

The mountains on Pluto likely formed no more than 100 million years ago — mere youngsters in a 4.56-billion-year-old solar system. This suggests the close-up region, which covers about one percent of Pluto’s surface, may still be geologically active today.

“This is one of the youngest surfaces we’ve ever seen in the solar system,” said Jeff Moore of the New Horizons Geology, Geophysics and Imaging Team (GGI) at NASA’s Ames Research Center in Moffett Field, California.

There are also new pictures of Charon, Pluto’s moon.

Image Credit: NASA-JHUAPL-SwRI

From NASA’s site again:

A swath of cliffs and troughs stretches about 600 miles (1,000 kilometers) from left to right, suggesting widespread fracturing of Charon’s crust, likely a result of internal processes. At upper right, along the moon’s curving edge, is a canyon estimated to be 4 to 6 miles (7 to 9 kilometers) deep.

Mission scientists are surprised by the apparent lack of craters on Charon. South of the moon’s equator, at the bottom of this image, terrain is lit by the slanting rays of the sun, creating shadows that make it easier to distinguish topography. Even here, however, relatively few craters are visible, indicating a relatively young surface that has been reshaped by geologic activity.

In Charon’s north polar region, a dark marking prominent in New Horizons’ approach images is now seen to have a diffuse boundary, suggesting it is a thin deposit of dark material. Underlying it is a distinct, sharply bounded, angular feature; higher resolution images still to come are expected to shed more light on this enigmatic region.

NASA has handled the publicity for this mission really well, there has been a genuine swell in public interest for space exploration. So much so that there is also an earnest campaign underway (apparently supported by a couple of the mission scientists) to reinstate Pluto as a full planet as opposed to a dwarf planet. I’ve kind of got mixed feelings about this myself. It’s wonderful that so many people are prepared to get passionate about space and planets. I’ve been giddy about them myself since I was a small child, so I get it. But this is a perfect way to dig the ground out from under your own feet the next time any scientist wants to point out that science is not decided by popular vote. (Remember when some eejit in Indiana wanted to change the value of pi by legislation?)

This is really endearing.

And so is this.

You can sign the petition here, if you want. I’m still not sure if I am going to, because I don’t think this is the right way to promote science literacy. Perhaps I am wrong, and perhaps I am a cranky curmudgeon. Maybe just getting people to be excited about science is the right way to start. After all, all it took for me as a small child was the shiny photographs in Time Life’s glossy coffee table books on space and the planets, I cared nothing for the scientific method then.

As a last note, don’t miss NASA’s hour long documentary The Year of Pluto.

The art of Kelly Houle: biology, tiny books, and The Origin of Species

July 19, 2015 • 10:45 am

Kelly Houle is the Official Website Artist and Calligrapher™, and we’ve encountered her several times before. She is, for example, engaged in the Illuminated Origin of Species Project, in which she, over at least a decade, will both reproduce Darwin’s Origin in calligraphy and then illuminate it with natural history drawings, just as medieval monks wrote out and illuminated the Bible. (The Origin, of course, is far more worthy of such treatment than fictional books.) You can find more on the Origin project, with the latest updates, on its Facebook page  Kelly also produces miniature books, various drawings of natural history subjects (beetles, birds, and so on), and a whole gamut of work involving watercolors and calligraphy. You can see much of this at her website and Facebook page, and if you like it, you can buy some (it’s remarkably inexpensive for the quality) to support the Origin project. I myself have a bunch of her beetles prints (Darwin, as you remember, was a lover and collector of Coleoptera) and her “I think” phylogeny greeting cards. Finally, Kelly was the illuminator and illustrator of the multiply-autographed edition of WEIT that sold for over $10,300 on eBay, with all proceeds donated to Doctors Without Borders. (Those ingrates never thanked us for the donation!). You can find the artwork to gawk and and to buy at her art-and-book-and-calligraphy webpage. I finally got to meet Kelly last week when she, her husband Ken, Ben Goren, and I journeyed to the home of her parents, Mike and Karen, for a three-day bout of relaxation, local traveling, and noms. Much of this has been documented, and there’s more to come. Before we took off, I visited Kelly at her home in Mesa and was allowed to photograph some of her art and see the way its made. This is Kelly with the two opening pages of the Illuminated Origin: title and frontispiece. These are the final copies (you can see them better here), so you can see how large the entire manuscript will be (each chapter will be separately bound as the book is so large):

Kelly-2
The circular tree of life combined with a drawing of the Beagle, all on a deep blue background with a gold-leaf phylogeny, is one of my favorite of her works (see a better reproduction here): Origin covers 2 The manuscript will be lettered and illuminated on fancy, thick Italian paper. Here’s one of the earliest pages of the manuscript. It takes several hours to letter each page (all of it laid out in advance), and there is no room for error: if she makes a mistake, she has to do the entire page over.

K-3
Here is the introduction title page, still in progress. As Kelly reports:

The introduction title page features a life-size Toxodon platensis skull as analyzed by Richard Owen. There are links with info and the source image, a drawing by George Scharf, from Zoology of the Voyage of H.M.S. Beagle, here, here, and here.

 From the above AMNH page:
“This particular animal belongs to a group without modern descendants, but many of Darwin’s fossils seemed to be huge variants of the same general kind of animal he had seen roaming the landscape during his explorations. This led him to wonder if the fossils might be evidence of ancestral forms. In later years Darwin would write that the South American fossils were essential to the “origin of all my views.”

Introduction One thing that struck me about her work is the immense amount of preparation that takes place before anything is done on the final Origin, her books, and her paintings. Calligraphy is practiced, paint samples are made and worked out in detail, and each step of a beetle drawing, for instance, is done in a notebook, with all details recorded so that it can be reproduced in the final version. She has three workstations; this is the one for preparing The Origin: Darwin table Practice samples of calligraphy adorn the walls: Darwin preparation Color swatches are consulted (and palettes made) so that colors can be exactly reproduced after she makes samples. Here are swatches from the manufacturer: Paint samples Only a small part of her equipment. Below are plastic palettes with premixed, dried watercolors so that a particular color can be used several times: Darwin equipment This is the work station for natural-history watercolors, currently occupied by Kelly’s beetle paintings. Beetle table This is how individual beetle paintings are planned. Each step of the final image is documented and described so that it can be reproduced precisely. I was pretty damn impressed by this degree of care: Beetle notebook Kelly also makes miniature books (I believed they’re strictly defined as books no larger than three inches on a side). They are avidly collected by miniature-book mavens; I had no idea that this area even existed. This is the station where she assembles the books. Book table I’ll let Kelly describe her latest project, an amazing tiny book encased in a handmade box and with a morpho butterfly that appears when you open the box. It’s all in service of the story told in the book:

The Artist of the Beautiful by Nathaniel Hawthorne can be read as an allegory of the conflict between the pursuit of artistic beauty and utilitarianism. Owen Warland, a clockmaker’s apprentice, neglects his duties in his retired master’s clock shop to pursue his dream of creating a lifelike, mechanical butterfly. Inspired by nature and his love for Annie, the shop owner’s daughter, Owen vows to put “the very spirit of beauty into form and give it motion.” When he experiences setbacks and failures, he regains his focus and resilience by turning to nature and his boyhood pastime of studying the intricate forms of birds and insects. Owen submits to his pursuit of beauty so completely that he loses all track of time and his work in the clock shop suffers. By the time he finally reaches his goal and presents his marvelous creation to Annie, she is married to a blacksmith, and they have a child. Owen hands Annie a box. When she opens it, a delicate butterfly emerges, steps onto on her finger, and proceeds to fly around the room. Annie and her husband are amazed, but when their child attempts to capture the butterfly, it is destroyed in an instant. Surprisingly, Owen remains calm and content, having experienced the numinous through the creative process.
The box for this miniature book edition of Hawthorne’s classic was inspired by his description of the box in which Owen presents the butterfly to Annie:
“He produced, as he spoke, what seemed a jewel box. It was carved richly out of ebony by his own hand, and inlaid with a fanciful tracery of pearl, representing a boy in pursuit of a butterfly, which, elsewhere, had become a winged spirit, and was flying heavenward; while the boy, or youth, had found such efficacy in his strong desire that he ascended from earth to cloud, and from cloud to celestial atmosphere, to win the beautiful.”

Morpho book box

The box was handmade by Mike Houle, and the book was designed and digitally typeset by Ken Howard. I designed the pearl inlay, sewed the books by hand, and bound them in cloth with hand-marbled endpapers by Ann Muir. I also painted the pop-up butterfly on both sides with iridescent watercolors. The book was made in an edition of 8. There are 6 copies remaining, one of which is listed on the Books of Kell’s Press Ebay auction site booksilluminated
A percentage of the sales from this book is being donated to DebRa of America, an organization that funds medical research and helps children with and their families cope with Epidermolysis Bullosa, also known as “The Worst Disease You’ve Never Heard Of.™”
This lifelike morpho butterfly, painted on both sides, pops up when you open the box:

P1080618 The marbled endpapers: Morpho book end papers The calligraphy of the book’s text: Morpho book type One of Kelly’s miniature beetle books: Beetle book Finally, Kelly gave me this lovely watercolor of Darwin’s orchid, Angraecum sesquipedale, a Madagascar orchid with an enormous nectar spur (27–43 cm, or 10.6–16.9 in). As Wikipedia notes:

[The orchid] is noteworthy for its long spur and its association with the naturalist Charles Darwin, who surmised that the flower was pollinated by a then undiscovered moth with a proboscis whose length was unprecedented at the time. His prediction had gone unverified until 21 years after his death, when the moth was discovered and his conjecture vindicated. The story of its postulated pollinator has come to be seen as one of the celebrated predictions of the theory of evolution.

My gift My friend Phil deVries recently captured the first video of the moth actually pollinating the orchid. You can see the video, and my post about it, here.  The picture above was one of the illustrations that Kelly added to our auctioned-off copy of WEIT.  This copy, however, will grace my wall. I ‘ll post more on our adventures in Arizona when time permits.