Why Evolution is True is a blog written by Jerry Coyne, centered on evolution and biology but also dealing with diverse topics like politics, culture, and cats.
As you may know from following the Botany Pond reports here, Vashti had one brood that vanished from the pond two days after the babies jumped into the water with Mom. I was out of town and nobody has any idea where it went.
About a week ago, another (unnamed) hen jumped down to the ground with nine of her ducklings (I had rescued one the previous afternoon and had it conveyed to a wildlife sanctuary). Getting that hen to the pond with her babies was tough: she was followed by only three or four, and she tried to go to the Pond the wrong way around the building, which would require that everyone climb the stairs. The ducklings couldn’t manage stairs that big, so I herded the four (or five) around the south end of the building, around the bend, and through the vegetation into the pond. That wasn’t easy given the intervening bushes. Then I went back to see what was left below the nest. There were five or six ducklings wandering around disco0nsolate, peeping plaintively for mom, and some of them had gotten themselves jammed in the window well. Fortunately, I had my trusty net and captured all of them without undue stress and no apparent injury (I mostly used my hands).
I took the babies around to the pond, placed them two by two on a rock, and their peeping, combined with Mom’s quacking, quickly reunited the brood, winding up with one proud and nine ducklings. It was hard, but I was heartened when the two major drakes in the pond (Armon and his “buddy”, whom he doesn’t like) left the brood alone. But then another drake flew in and the combination of three of them was too much for the mother: the hen walked out of the pond with her babies and into the vegetation on the other side of the south fence.
They did not reappear and I can presume only that they are gone, with the babies probably dead. This was heartbreaking and I still haven’t recovered. I kick myself because I could have sent every baby to rehab, which would have required breaking up the family. I made a guess, and it turned out to be the wrong decision–but only in retrospect.
But now I am pretty sure that Vashti and her first brood were also driven out of the pond by those odious drakes. I say “first brood” because Vashti has re-nested, laid seven eggs, and her second brood is going to hatch in mid-June. This time, if there are too many drakes around, I think the best thing would be to capture the babies and have them taken to rehab. That, of course, will break up her second family, and I can’t believe that derailing her maternal efforts twice won’t break her heart, in a ducky kind of way. It’s also sad because one of my great joys, and that of the pond’s visitors, is to see a brood of tiny fluffballs turn into full-size mallards, ready to fly away come late summer or fall.
The upshot is that I have photos of the latest brood but am not yet ready to put them up and relive the misery. I will post them as soon as I recover.
In the meantime, it’s sunny and warm, and the five turtles in the pond are busy sunning themselves on the rock. Here’s a photo from the other day of three of them performing what we call “turtle yoga”: stretching out their limbs and necks to get as much sun as they can. I explain to some of the Pond’s visitors that they are trying to get their body temperature up after immersion in cold water.
I’m not going to reread this because going over what happened upsets me, but here is Turtle Yoga. Click the photo to enlarge it: This photo was taken with my iPhone, so the quality is worse than usual. The photos that are coming will be better.
Presumably you have put together a bunch of good wildlife photos this long weekend. Well, we need ’em, so please send them in. Thanks!
Today’s batch comes from Rik Gern of Austin, Texas, who sends us photos of seeds and seed pods. Rik’s captions are indented, and you can enlarge his photos by clicking on them.
I’ve got some seeds and seed pods for you today. The pictures of seed pods were taken on a walk around the block last January before the plants were in bloom:
Crape Myrtle (Lagersrtoemia ‘Natchez’) is usually known by its extravagant frilly, petticoat-like flowers, but here are the rustic seed pods. (1&2) They are not as flamboyant as the flower, but attractive in their own right.
The pointed tips of the Red Yucca (Hesperaloe parviflora) pods make them a good companion to the rest of the plant with it’s stiff, aggressively pointed leaves. (3) The seeds in these pods are just starting to get exposed.
Unlike the Crepe Myrtle and the Red Yucca, the pods of the Mexican Buckeye (Ungnadia speciosa) hang down from the branch. They make me think of some ancient bells. The smooth polished look of the seeds contrasts nicely with the rough hewn, weathered look of the pod casing:
The next two examples come straight from the grocery store.
Here are a few seeds from a Red Delicious apple (Malus domestica). Their host was delicious!:
These Cantaloupe Melon (Cucumis melo) seeds (first photo below) made me think of textbook illustrations I saw of cell division when I was in school, so I did some digital daydreaming in the multiverse called Photoshop and played around until this emerged. I call it “Kaleidoscopic Mitosis” (second photo below):
Welcome to Monday, May 25, 2026: it’s Memorial Day, a holiday in America. From Wikipedia:
Memorial Day is a federal holiday in the United States for mourning the U.S. military personnel who died while serving in the United States Armed Forces. It is observed on the last Monday of May. It is also considered to be the unofficial beginning of summer.
Memorial Day is a time for visiting cemeteries and memorials to mourn the military personnel who died in the line of duty. Volunteers will place American flags on the graves of those military personnel in national cemeteries
One of those graves is at Arlington National Cemetery, where my father is buried (he was a retired Lt. Col. when he died, and had served twenty years.) Here’s a photo of the graves at Arlington, and a photo of my dad, inscribed to my mother (I think this was before they were married).
Remember, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
There’s a Google Doodle honoring the day (click icon below to see where it goes); the folded flag, which covered a coffin, is given to a deceased soldier’s wife or relatives after the funeral.
It’s also National Wine Day and National Tap Dance Day. Here’s one of my favorite tap performances: Fred Astaire and Rita Hayworth dancing to the “Shorty George”. Watch the whole thing. The dance if from the 1942 film “You Were Never Lovelier“. Info from YouTube:
You Were Never Lovelier was Rita’s third and last film released in 1942 and her second time as Fred Astaire’s dancing partner. Except for “The Shorty George” number, all their dances were rehearsed in the attic of a funeral parlor! They had to stop every time a funeral procession came through and couldn’t start up again until all the mourners had left. But if those conditions disrupted rehearsals, it didn’t show on-screen. The results were fabulous. Rita later called this movie one of her favorites, but it was also memorable to her for another reason. During rehearsals of “The Shorty George”, Rita experienced one of her “most embarrassing” moments when she fell down during the dance and knocked herself out cold! The film is set in what was one of Hollywood’s favorite locales at the time, Buenos Aires, and also features Xavier Cugat and his Orchestra to add to the Latin flavor of this memorable musical.
A synthesis of American Swing or Jive with virtuoso tap dancing is performed by Astaire and Hayworth, both in top form and exuding a sense of fun in an arrangement by Lyle “Spud” Murphy. The title refers to a popular dance step of the time, attributed to George “Shorty” Snowden, a champion African-American dancer at Harlem’s Savoy Ballroom and reputed inventor of the Lindy Hop or Jitterbug dance styles. Here, as in the “Pick Yourself Up” and “Bojangles of Harlem” numbers from Swing Time, Kern belied his claim that he couldn’t write in the Swing style.
Readers are welcome to mark notable events, births, or deaths on this day by consulting the May 1 Wikipedia page.
The United States and Iran have agreed in principle to a deal that could wind down the war in the Middle East, but the final approval by leaders of both sides could take days, a senior U.S. official told reporters on Sunday.
The deal would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and commit Iran to disposing of its highly enriched uranium, but how Tehran would do so was still being negotiated, said the U.S. official, who spoke anonymously because they were not authorized to speak publicly. President Trump has insisted that the United States seize the material as part of his vow to curb Iran’s nuclear program.
Iran’s leaders and official state media have not publicly commented on what is in any potential agreement or what is being discussed. Officials from both countries have said any agreement would be an initial framework that would lead to further negotiations, rather than the last word.
News of a possible deal came after a roller-coaster few weeks, with Mr. Trump at times threatening to restart attacks on Iran, and at others saying there was progress in last-ditch negotiations to stave off a return to full-scale war — all while offering few details. Then, on Saturday, the president announced on social media that the two countries had “largely negotiated” a memorandum of understanding “pertaining to PEACE.”
On Sunday, however, he said he had ordered his negotiators “not to rush into a deal.”
If a deal were certified, Mr. Trump said in his social media post on Sunday, the United States could end its blockade of Iranian ports, which it had used to pressure Tehran to reopen the strait.
Over the last 24 hours, both American and Iranian officials have emphasized the concessions they hoped to secure.
Three Iranian officials said on Saturday that a potential deal would stipulate only that nuclear matters would be negotiated within 30 to 60 days. Like the U.S. official, they spoke anonymously because they were not authorized to speak publicly.
The possible deal does not address Iran’s supply of missiles, nor does it stipulate a moratorium on enrichment, the U.S. official said on Sunday. Those issues would be addressed in future negotiations, the official said. In previous rounds of negotiations, the United States has sought at least a 20-year commitment.
Everything is being put off, as usual. What will happen, I think, is that Iran will retain its abilities to make a nuclear bomb, the people will remain oppressed, and Iran will keep accumulating missiles to fire at Israel and the Gulf States. Even in nascent form it’s a bad deal.
*Readers seem to agree that whatever deal is hammered out won’t work. As of this morning, here are the totals for the poll about Iran I posted yesterday. As you see, 90% of those responding don’t think the war will wind down completely within two months. I voted “no” as well.
Israel’s military has deepened its hold on the Gaza Strip, significantly expanding the territory it controls under the seven-month cease-fire and fortifying the line that separates it from areas controlled by Hamas.
Israel now holds around 59% of the enclave, up from 53% at the start of the U.S.-brokered cease-fire in October, people familiar with the matter said. The increase came as Israeli troops moved the so-called yellow line, which marks the division of territory, deeper into Hamas’s zone of control, the people said. In at least one spot, Israel moved the line forward a few hundred yards to intersect with Salah al-Din Road, Gaza’s main north-south artery.
In addition, in central Gaza, the Israeli military has been fortifying the line with a deep trench and high sand berms along its length, satellite images show. Similar earthworks can be seen in areas of northern and southern Gaza, but the fortifications through the center, where much of the population lives, are longer, more continuous and designed to be harder to breach since the area is more vulnerable to attack, Israel’s military says.
Satellite images show the line is now dotted with at least seven new outposts, each protected by sand berms. Some are paved with asphalt and host more than a dozen buildings. They beef up Israel’s position on the line and add to dozens of outposts scattered throughout its side of the enclave.
The fortifications show how the division of Gaza is hardening amid a logjam in President Trump’s peace process, as Hamas resists pressure to disarm its fighters and Israel continues to attack them. The situation means extended limbo for Palestinians who are still living among the ruins, and has created a no-man’s-land inside the enclave, a territory that Israel has long denied it wants to occupy permanently.
. . .As long as Hamas remains in control of part of Gaza, Israel insists it won’t withdraw its troops, and many Arab governments say they won’t fund reconstruction of the enclave. The U.S.-led Board of Peace is pushing to get on with the task of reconstruction, including erecting new housing developments on the Israeli side of the line for Palestinians—a step some Arab governments as well as Hamas are resisting, according to Nickolay Mladenov, the diplomat leading the Trump-brokered effort to end the conflict.
“The more we stabilize the status quo, the more that status quo becomes difficult to remove,” Mladenov said in mid-May, warning of a situation in which Gaza becomes permanently split in two.
Asked about the movement of the yellow line, Israel’s military said it was operating on orders from the country’s political leadership. The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu didn’t respond to a request for comment.
The Gaza Peace Plan of Trump et al, which is an unholy mess, decreed that the strip should be disarmed in Phase 2 (beginning last January) and Hamas should give up power as well as its weapons. But you know it won’t do that: its latest excuses are that it won’t do that until a) there are two states in place and b) Israel withdraws from Gaza. The a) bit simply ain’t gonna happen, and the b) bit won’t happen until Hamas disarms. I’m pretty sure that if it did disarm, Israel would withdraw—after all, Hamas is tying up IDF troops needed elsewhere. So, the conclusion is that the line will stay, though I don’t see why Israel shouldn’t say why they moved it further south. But the Trump Peace Plan is prety much DOA.
*Jonathan Kay has been reporting on the apparently fictitious burials of indigenous children at the First Nations Residential School in Kamloops, British Columbia. As you may know, it was pretty much the Scandal of the Year in Canada (over several years), carrying the implication that indigenous children had either died or been killed secretly, and were buried on the grounds of the school. But so far they haven’t found any graves, nor are they looking for them. Kay reports in Quillette that “Canada’s newspaper of record asks: ‘What if they ultimately find nothing?’” The answer is pretty much, it wouldn’t matter.
A month ago, I offered some predictions about how Canadian journalists would cover the five-year anniversary of the country’s infamous “unmarked graves” social panic, which began on May 27, 2021. On one hand, this kind of important landmark would be difficult for news outlets to ignore. (After all, this was considered the Canadian “Story of the Year” at the time.) On the other hand, any intellectually honest retrospective that these outlets produced would require at least some passing explanation as to why the entire Canadian media establishment had fallen hook, line, and sinker for a story that turned out to be fake—something that most journalists have so far proven unwilling to do.
On Wednesday, it will have been exactly five years since the Kamloops First Nation in British Columbia claimed it has found 215 unmarked graves of Indigenous children on the grounds of the community’s former residential school. In the weeks that followed, gullible reporters transformed the narrative into a kind of horror-movie script, complete with mass murdering priests and midnight burials.
It all turned out to be complete nonsense. In five years, not a single actual grave has been found.
The only evidence that had been offered in support of the original claims consisted of a ground-penetrating radar (GPR) survey of the former residential school grounds. As reporters (belatedly) learned, GPR technology merely detects sub-surface soil dislocations—not actual graves. These dislocations canbe associated with graves, but also with pipes, rocks, tree roots, and a dozen other common subsurface artifacts. To truly identify actual graves, one must dig—something that the Kamloops First Nation leaders who originally advanced these false claims have conspicuously failed to do; despite having received more than $12-million from Canada’s (equally gullible) government for search activities.
In polite Canadian society, it is still considered ideologically outré to admit frankly that none of these supposed “unmarked graves” have been found, or even to suggest that evidence was ever necessary to prove their existence in the first place. From the start of the social panic, these (unidentified) children were cast as sacred martyrs, and their grim fate was attested to by (equally sacred) Indigenous elders who’d claimed to have experienced some kind of mystical “knowing.” The whole movement quickly became an ersatz religious movement for Canada’s upper middle-class lawn-sign set.
. . . In that aforementioned April 21 column, I tried to imagine how Canadian media outlets would square this circle. And this is what I came up with:
We’ll get a lot of studiously vague interview pieces, illustrated with photographic portraits of [Kamloops First Nation chief Rosanne Casimir] or other Indigenous figures staring morosely into the middle distance. These pieces will feature an early passing reference to the original unmarked-graves announcement from Kamloops—that moment of moral ‘reckoning,’ according to the usual stock phrase—but then segue hurriedly to emotional laments about the ‘unfinished work’ of reconciliation. This will be followed by carefully worded references to the ‘doubts’ that some Canadians have about the existence of unmarked graves, and then a substantial section about the scourge of ‘denialism.’
Yesterday, the Globe & Mail—sometimes referred to as Canada’s “newspaper of record”—published its big fifth-anniversary spread, giving me an opportunity to put my predictions to the test. And it turned out that I got things mostly right. Indeed, the words “doubt” and “denialism” are right there in the Globe & Mail’s sub-headline (“Five years after a grim announcement in B.C., uncertainty gives rise to doubt and denialism.”) National “reckoning” gets a shoutout, too. And the Globe & Mail photo pool supplied readers with the obligatory image of a Kamloops First Nations “knowledge keeper” staring resolutely out into space.
. . . But the article also served up a few surprises, which are worth exploring in some detail. The “unmarked graves” farce is arguably the greatest journalistic scandal in Canada’s history. Over the last half-decade, several outlets have (grudgingly, in most cases) admitted that they got the original story wrong—including the National Post, New York Times,and, more surprisingly, the CBC. But many others, including the Globe, had never (to my knowledge) explicitly done so—whether out of embarrassment, fear of being labelled an enemy of Indigenous “reconciliation,” or, more likely, some combination of both. The new Globe article offers clues as to whether the newspaper(and similarly herd-minded legacy media outlets) will ever fully pivot to a genuinely truth-based approach to the subject.
And here’s the “it doesn’t matter” bit:
In paragraph eight, the writers try a second motte-and-bailey gambit. We are informed that “regardless of what they find [in Kamloops], the fact remains that more than 3,500 children are named on the National Centre for Truth and Reconciliation‘s registry of students who died as a result of the residential school system, which operated in Canada for more than 160 years.” This is absolutely true. But it’s also completely irrelevant. No one disputes the information published by the National Centre for Truth and Reconciliation, which, unlike the Kamloops hysteria, was based on careful research. In that case, researchers had names, dates of birth, and other identifying details for the victims. None of that exists in the case of the Kamloops story.
The Globe’simplicit argument here is that it doesn’t really matter all that much if those 215 children actually existed or not, since we have the names of 3,500 other children that can be trotted out for the same purpose—so, at worse, we’re still batting 94% on dead-child statistics.
And so they probably won’t dig up the “graves”, which probably are artifacts and not dead bodies. It is to Canada’s (and its media’s) eternal shame that this has become a sacred story that cannot be contradicted, especially by evidence. The default answer is, as Kay notes, that it doesn’t matter because the story still instantiates the fact that First Nations people were discriminated against, though they are not sacred. And the discrimination was true, but you can’t simply accept stories that are right there waiting to be either falsified or verified.
This reminds me of Wilfred Reilly’s book Hate Crime Hoaxes, in which he shows that a number of, say, black “hate crimes” on campuses and elsewhere (e.g., the placing of nooses, graffiti using the “n-word”) were actually perpetrated by members of the group supposedly attacked. Why would a black person write anti-black graffiti? Well, to get personal attention (while remaining anonymous, of course), but also to keep alive the idea of their group being persecuted. And most places, especially campuses, buy into this, for when a hate crime is revealed aas a hoax, the college rarely reveals that, or says, like Canada, that it doesn’t really matter because bigotry remains a problem. This is no way to seek the truth.
*Some people grouse when a black actor takes on a “white” role, as is going to happen in a new movie of “The Odyssey”, but it seems verboten to have a white actor play a “black” role, like Barack Obama or Martin Luther King. Well, I can see why the latter holds, since the significance of both Obama and King rested on their connection with being black, but in his latest column, John McWhorter gives three good reasons supporting this asymmetry—at least for the time being.
The director Christopher Nolan has confirmed that in his film of “The Odyssey,” Helen of Troy — the mythical figure who launched a thousand ships — will be played by the dark-skinned actress of African parentage Lupita Nyong’o.
Some people have implied this is a denial of history, a performative woke gesture. Would we tolerate white actors playing Black historical figures, they ask? “Casting a Black woman to play a White woman in a foundational work of European literature is no more right than casting a White man to play Shaka Zulu!” Elon Musk objected. The “End Wokeness” X account has pitched in to the outrage with a tableau of hypothetical movie posters of films with white actors playing various Blacks in Wax, such as Anthony Hopkins cast as Nelson Mandela.
. . .The people who think it’s wrong to cast Nyong’o because Brad Pitt shouldn’t be Shaka Zulu pretend there is no diachrony involved in how we judge such things. Never mind that Helen of Troy was a mythical character. There are perfectly good reasons white actors should not be playing Black characters in our moment.
For one, Black actors don’t have as many opportunities as white actors. They should at least be the default choice for playing characters of their own race. It is true that opportunities for Black actors are opening up: a Black military commander in “Game of Thrones,” a Black Little Mermaid, and Black characters in the Regency romance series “Bridgerton.” However, it has only been this way for about 10 minutes, and Black actors still work under limitations. No one would say that a Black young actor, regardless of hotness or talent, could most likely have the opportunities that Timothée Chalamet or Sydney Sweeney has.
The critics also ignore power relations. If Mark Wahlberg played Muhammad Ali, as End Wokeness’s mock-up has it, Wahlberg would be taking a role from actors in a not so powerful group. If Michael B. Jordan played John F. Kennedy, it would be punching up.
Plus, white actors playing Black figures in “blaccents” of various degrees would verge on minstrelsy. It’s one thing that Black British or African actors such as Idris Elba and Thandiwe Newton do American blaccents in roles (and uncannily well). But Reese Witherspoon or Steve Carell? Um — no.
. . In some future time we should have no problem with a talented white man playing the lead in “A Raisin in the Sun,” a white woman cast as Representative Barbara Jordan, or white people singing in “Porgy and Bess.” I didn’t say tomorrow — but sometime.
These three answers convince me that McWhorter is right, but I can see that all the points are arguable. Yes, there are fewer black actors, but should you go for race over talent in an affirmative-action move to create equity? The “power” reason is to me the least convincing. It’s a postmodern variant of a), and “punching up/down” arguments never convince me (they’re used in sciencc, for example, to try to get powerful professors to avoid criticizing assistant professors, but nobody’s beyond criticism). I’m not sure that white actors playing blacks have to assume a black accent or argot, so the minstrel argument isn’t too strong, either. But taken together, all three seem okay to me, though there are probably some black people who could be played by whites right now, like Matthew Henson, a black man who explored the Arctic with Robert Peary. Insofar as his blackness wasn’t instrumental in his accomplishments, would it be so bad if he were played by a white, Hispanic, or Asian? But yes, there are some black people now who could be played credibly only by black actors.
For a much longer discussion of this issue, which in the end agrees with McWhorter (but at daunting length), read Cathy Young’s “Homeric Heresies” at Quillette.
Meanwhile in Dobrzyn, Andrzej is overworked, as usual (he’s just written a book):
Hili: You said you were taking a break. Andrzej: Yeah, except I forgot how to actually do that.
In Polish:
Hili: Powiedziałeś, że robisz sobie urlop.
Ja: Tak, ale zapomniałem jak się to robi.
From Masih, who’s obviously angered at Trump trying to forge a peace with Iran and not giving a fig about the freedom of the Iranian people:
While Trump negotiates a deal with the Islamic Republic, a deal with zero human rights clauses, regime is hanging people in silence. Today they hanged another innocent Iranian.
Mojtaba Kian was arrested, tried, and executed in less than 50 days.
“Peace for our time” was, of course, the phrase uttered by British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain on September 30, 1938 after he returned from signing The Munich Agreement with Hitler. That treaty allowed Nazi Germany to occupy the Sudetenland, part of Czechoslovakia, in return for Hitler’s promise to leave the rest of Czechoslovakia—and Europe—alone. That was a lie, of course, and Germany invaded Poland, beginning World War II, on September 1, 1939. Chamberlain, and other dupes who believed Hitler, had thought that the treaty would avert war in Europe. Skeptics like Churchill disagreed, and Chamberlain resigned on May 10, 1940, giving the PM slot to Churchill.
It doesn’t say much about Israel except Trump had a “very good call” with Netanyahu. Israel is being shoved aside in Trump’s hell-bent desire to get some kind of peace with Iran. But what kind will we get? We can see more details in The Times of Israel. which partly quotes the NYT (headings below are mine, extracts from the ToI are indented, and my words are flush left):
Uranium:
Iran has agreed to give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium as part of an agreement with the US to end the war, two US officials tell the New York Times.
According to the officials, Iran has committed in a general statement to giving up the uranium, rather than reaching an agreement with the US on exactly how it will relinquish it. Instead, the exact details will be worked out during the negotiations that will begin once a deal is reached.
The report comes days after Iranian sources claimed that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, had issued a directive that the near-weapons-grade uranium should not be sent abroad.
Iran has a stockpile of more than 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium in its possession, which Israeli officials have said is sufficient for 11 nuclear bombs if enriched further.
Earlier this month, a senior Israeli military official said if the uranium wasn’t removed, the war launched in February could be considered “one big failure.”
More on uranium:
And, reports the Times, the officials say issues relating to Iran’s nuclear program will be put off, to be negotiated within 30 to 60 days.
The Times adds the caveat that it is “not clear if the proposal Iranian officials said they had agreed to was what President Trump was referring to in his post on social media.”
Citing Middle East officials, The Times also says the leaders of Arab and Muslim-majority countries with whom Trump spoke in a conference earlier today told him that they support the proposal and urged him to accept it.
The Strait of Hormuz:
While Iran’s Fars news has derided President Donald Trump’s talk of a deal being nearly done, with the Strait of Hormuz to reopen, three senior Iranian officials tell the New York Times that Tehran has agreed to “a memorandum of understanding that would stop the fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.”
The deal would release $25 billion in Iranian assets frozen overseas, the officials are quoted as saying.
The Times says the officials say the agreement “would halt fighting on all fronts, including in Lebanon.”
They add that its terms focus “on opening the strait— including lifting the US naval blockade against Iran and allowing free commercial traffic without Iran charging any tolls.”’
. . .Iran’s Fars news agency says the Strait of Hormuz will remain under Iran’s management under the provisions of the latest exchanged text for a deal between Iran and the US.
Fars, a semi-state outlet close to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, dismisses as “incomplete and inconsistent with reality” Trump’s announcement two hours ago that the deal was now being finalized and would include the reopening of the strait.
Trump posted on social media that an agreement with Iran “has been largely negotiated.” He specified that the deal would include the opening of the strait, the key pathway for the global oil supply that Tehran has largely blocked since the beginning of the war some three months ago.
Regime change:
None, of course. Although some in the Trump administration say there has been regime change, all that means is that the Ayatollah Khamenei is dead, his son, the Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, may be alive but isn’t doing much, and military hard-liners still run the country and the war. The Iranian people are no closer to freedom than they were before the war.
Lebanon and Hezbollah:
No information yet; see Segal’s excerpt below in which Iranian sources claim that the agreement would stop fighting in Lebanon (but would presumably not require Hezbollah to disarm).
As you see, not much is clear, and the fate of Iran’s uranium stockpile—the reason Trump says we attacked Iran—remains unclear.
Over at It’s Noon in Israel, Amit Segal’s post about it is called “The art of a bad deal,” with the subtitle, “Trump’s proposed deal threatens to leave Iran stronger than it was before Operation Epic Fury.” Excerpt:
t’s Sunday, May 24, and at the outset of Operation Roaring Lion, there were two definitions of victory on the table: capturing Iran’s enriched uranium or toppling the regime altogether. Given that regime change does not appear to be materializing and one of the parties appears hesitant to make the necessary investments for such an outcome, the sole remaining path to victory appears to be securing the uranium.
The most recent proposal—which Donald Trump claims is already “largely negotiated”—seemingly attempts to follow this path. According to a report from Channel 12, the agreement would reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the lifting of the naval blockade and substantial financial relief. However, the core issues regarding the nuclear program and the extraction of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile would not be resolved upfront; instead, they would be deferred for separate negotiations over a 60-day period. Critically, Senior Iranian sources speaking with The New York Times said the deal would release $25 billion in Iranian assets frozen overseas. They added that the agreement “would halt fighting on all fronts, including in Lebanon.”
If the enriched uranium is indeed surrendered to the United States, it is indeed a notable achievement, but there are two caveats:
The first caveat concerns the actual scope and reality of the nuclear concessions. According to current reports, the negotiations slated to follow the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will focus exclusively on uranium enriched to 60 percent—the roughly 440 kilograms currently believed to be buried beneath the rubble of the Natanz facility. Meanwhile, the tons of uranium enriched to three percent appear destined to remain inside Iran, with any future restrictions on its enrichment left dangerously ambiguous. Compounding this uncertainty, a senior Iranian official bluntly told Reuters today that Tehran has not actually agreed to hand over any material at all, emphasizing that the preliminary agreement does not even formally address the nuclear issue.
The second caveat is procedural, but no less critical. The framework currently on the table is not a finalized treaty, but merely a temporary Memorandum of Understanding meant to serve as a baseline for future talks. All the thorny details regarding the nuclear stockpile are slated to be ironed out over a 60-day negotiation window. The official justification for this delay is logistical—that safely extracting highly enriched uranium from bombed-out, irradiated rubble is a highly complex operation. In practice, however, it is far more likely a calculated delay, offering Tehran an extended opportunity to rest and recover before entering their next phase of nuclear intractability.
Israel has greeted the news with deep skepticism and more than a touch of fear. The reported memorandum makes zero mention of ballistic missile restrictions. What began largely as a defensive shield for Iran’s nuclear ambitions has mutated into a formidable threat in its own right. Even without the ultimate deterrent of a nuclear warhead, an Iranian ballistic arsenal numbering in the tens of thousands is more than sufficient to paralyze any military action against the Islamic Republic. According to Channel 12, this critical issue—whether through an immediate American concession or a simple lack of interest—never even made it to the negotiating table.
The current form of the deal also leaves the Islamic Republic holding another critical asset: the Strait of Hormuz. While the strategic waterway is slated to reopen, it does so not by virtue of an American victory, but rather by Iran’s sufferance. The current framework temporarily ensures toll-free passage, but absolutely nothing in the agreement guarantees that Tehran won’t eventually set up a toll booth—or abruptly choke off shipping the moment they feel the subsequent 60-day negotiations are stalling.
A secondary, but equally pressing concern in Jerusalem is that the regime has not yet fallen. While never explicitly declared as a military objective, regime change has been the unofficial policy undercurrent of the entire conflict. So far, Tehran has successfully managed to cling to power. Yet, senior Israeli intelligence officials maintain that a collapse from within remains a distinct possibility—provided the crippling economic blockade is sustained through the end of 2026. If the blockade and economic warfare are traded away for a partial agreement today, that window permanently closes. Meanwhile, domestic repression continues apace; just this morning, Iran executed a man accused of sending information to the US and Israel during the war. Cutting this deal now would not just throw Tehran a financial lifeline—it would constitute a total abandonment of the Iranian protesters who began this entire conflict.
Segal also discusses Lebanon, where fighting has escalated but Israel has pretty much held its fire until Iran stopped fighting. Tehran wants to link the Iran peace deal to Lebanon, allowing Hezbollah to continue attacking Israel. Israelis won’t stand for that, or so I think. Segal sums up the deal this way:
For a leader who has spent decades building his brand as the sole guarantor of Israeli security, accepting a deal that leaves the regime intact, Hezbollah armed, the ballistic missile program recovering, and Tehran flush with sanctions relief is electoral assisted suicide for Netanyahu. Hanging in the balance of these negotiations is the fate of more than one regime.
To me, this seems like a bad deal for the U.S. and especially for Israel. Nuclear enrichment could continue with the unenriched uranium possessed by Iran, it could eventually build a bomb, Hezbollah might persist as a threat to Israel, there is no regime change (we’re blowing a chance for one, says Segal), and the fate of the Strait of Hormuz remains unclear. Trump just keeps putting up deadline after deadline and then ignoring them, hoping that something will fall into place.
So I ask readers to weigh in by checking one box in this unscientific poll. I’ve given a deadline, but am just assessing reader sentiment here; so please check a box:
Once again I’ve stolen some photos (with permission) from the Facebook page of Scott Ritchie of Cairns, Australia. Scott has documented a trip to Queensland, and his text and IDs are indented. You can enlarge his photos by clicking on them.
Artemis Station, Cape York Peninsula, Queensland, Australia. The name that signifies excellence in Australian birding. This past weekend, I went on a wonderful camping trip with the Cairns Birders, led by Shane Kennedy and Doug Herrington, to Artemis Station. Doug then led us on a drive past Musgrave Roadhouse to Marina Plains. The last time I went up the Cape with Doug, we saw an adult Southern Cassowary with its chick at the top of the Kuranda Range. Well, lightning did strike twice.
Up the cape. It was magic. The weather was great, the sunsets so beautiful. The night sky was full on Milky Way. The sunrises were full of bird song. And the key “lifers”, the iconic Golden Shouldered Parrot (GSP) and the Red Goshawk, were on show. Here are some of my favourite photos from this trip.
My hat goes off to the staff of Artemis Station. Not only for hosting us, but for their heroic conservation efforts to save the last of the “termite” parrots in Queensland. Thank you Sue and Tom Shepherd, who own the station and tend to the parrots.
Adult Southern Cassowary (Casuarius casuarius). Great way to start the trip!:
And his chick!:
Galahs (Eolophus roseicapilla) were common, flying around in noisy flocks at dawn and dusk:
Galahs, in the outback!:
Patrick of Artemis Station shows us the ant (termite) mound used by Golden-Shouldered Parrots (Psephotellus chrysopterygius). They dig a tunnel in the mound. An electric fence barrier us used to keep out marauding snakes and monitor lizard. Great lengths are taken to maximise survival and production of these critically endangered birds.
The ant hill also has interesting camouflaged invertebrates, such as this cicada:
Female and male Golden-Shouldered Parrots (GSP) at a feeding station. Wild birds are provided with a feeding station of grass seeds to enhance survival:
An immature male GSP flies past a trail camera at the feeding station. They keep an eye out for predators, and to monitor bird health and numbers:
Another critically endangered bird, the Red Goshawk (Erythrotriorchis radiatus), also lives in Cape York. A male goshawk keeps a sharp eye on his partner:
. . .who is building a nest for the seasons brood:
“What do you think, is it sturdy enough?”:
We were greeted at the campsite by an Australian Boobook (Ninox boobook):
This cute owl kept a close eye on us for 2 nights.:
An Australian Hobby (Falco longipennis), a species of falcon, was seen regularly at a nearby pond:
Welcome to Sunday, May 24; the Sabbath that was made for gentile cats, and Asparagus Day. And here’s the answer to everyone’s question about asparagus (and yes, I am one of the victims):
Readers are welcome to mark notable events, births, or deaths on this day by consulting the May 24 Wikipedia page.
Da Nooz:
**PEACE FOR OUR TIME? The news is full of reports that the U.S. and Iran (and Israel, which appears not to have been consulted) are close to striking a peace deal. See the next post for more on this–and a poll.
Many readers asked: Given the volume of the critical response, do you stand by this column?
Kathleen Kingsbury: Yes.Nick built upon a growing body of evidence regarding the mistreatment of detainees in Israel. Numerous human rights organizations and reputable news outlets — including prominent Israeli media — have documented abuse by Israeli security forces and settlers. Previous accounts include reports of sexual violence and physical degradation.
Before publication, Nick’s reporting underwent a rigorous vetting process by Opinion’s fact-checking department to ensure that every testimony and anecdote he personally reported was supported by independent sources, as is the case with all sensitive pieces. The Times’s standards and legal teams also reviewed the column and offered feedback. After publication, we reviewed the factual challenges that readers and others raised, as is standard practice with any published piece. Editors found no errors.
Readers have said the allegations involving dogs abusing detainees is not only impossible but also a “blood libel” against Israel and its citizens.
Kristof: This passage provoked the most disgust and disbelief. A Palestinian journalist detained in 2024 told me he was held down, stripped, blindfolded and handcuffed while a dog was brought in and, with encouragement from a handler, mounted and penetrated him. Before he spoke to me, he confided his account to the Public Committee Against Torture in Israel, an Israeli human rights organization.
I thought carefully about whether to include this. In the end I did because he had told his account previously and because what he described has happened before. Other Palestinian prisoners and human rights monitors have cited reports of dogs sexually assaulting prisoners. The Pinochet regime in Chile used a dog to rape political prisoners. Peer-reviewed medical literature documents rectal injuries caused by canine penetration.
Readers will have their own take on the use of anonymous sources, biased sources, and sources who have changed their stories. But the last sentence is garbage: the “medical literature documents” cited by Kristof on X were cases of bestiality, not forced rape by dogs.
You might want to read, as a (free) counterpoint, a fairly balanced column by Rabbi Steven Abraham called “This is who Nicholas Kristof is” (h/t Suzy). One excerpt:
So here is where I have arrived.
The abuse inside the Israeli prison system is real, and Israel must reckon with it, both because reckoning is a Jewish obligation and because the alternative is rot. Ben-Gvir is a disgrace to the office he holds. Netanyahu’s coalition is failing in its basic duty to govern sovereign power with discipline. A rabbi who loves Israel must say so, and must keep saying so, regardless of who else is in the room.
And: Nicholas Kristof’s column is a smear built on propaganda from an organization committed to Israel’s erasure. He chose those sources because they travel further than the credible, documented, Israeli-sourced indictment that was available to him. He has done this kind of thing before, against other targets, across decades. He will do it again. The Times will let him.
Both of those sentences are true. Neither cancels the other. The discipline of holding both, at the same time, without flinching from either, that is what Torah asks of us when we read.
This is who Nicholas Kristof is. The Times knows, and lets him be it. We are not obligated to pretend otherwise.
Mi-d’var sheker tirchak. Keep far from a false thing. Even when the false thing is dressed in the typography of the paper of record. Especially then.
Most applicants for green cards will need to go abroad to apply for permanent residency at an American Consulate, rather than filing from within the U.S. as they do now, the Trump administration announced Friday.
Under the new policy, most foreigners—from tech workers to spouses of U.S. citizens—would need to prove they have “extraordinary circumstances” to apply for permanent residency within the U.S., or else risk being denied. Most would need to go abroad to apply at a U.S. Consulate, where they risk losing whatever legal status they held in the U.S. and being unable to return.
The change marks a shift in how the U.S. immigration system has functioned for decades, and will affect immigrants in the country illegally as well as foreign professionals sponsored by U.S. companies.
The new approach would particularly affect the millions of immigrants who are living in the U.S. illegally, but gain legal status either by marrying a U.S. citizen or having U.S. citizen children sponsor them once the children turn 21. If an immigrant without legal status leaves the country, they could face anywhere from a three-year to a lifetime ban on returning.
“This policy allows our immigration system to function as the law intended instead of incentivizing loopholes,” said U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services spokesman Zach Kahler in a statement. “When aliens apply from their home country, it reduces the need to find and remove those who decide to slip into the shadows.”
People with green card applications currently pending may be able to complete the process without leaving the country if they are determined to “provide an economic benefit,” though others may be asked to go abroad to a U.S. Consulate, Kahler said.
This is fair reporting, without opinion. Just the facts. But on the NBC News on Friday, their entire “news” report on this was slanted towards saying how unfair it was, interviewing lawyers and undocumented immigrants who weighed in against the decision (which is clearly made to cut down on illegal immigration). It was one of the most blatantly biased “news” stories that I have seen on major television news
In the run-up to the Feb. 28 attack on Iran, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel was not only in the Situation Room with President Trump, he was leading the discussion, predicting that a joint U.S.-Israeli strike could very well lead to the demise of the Islamic Republic.
Just a few weeks later, after those sanguine assurances proved inaccurate, the picture was starkly different. Israel was so thoroughly sidelined by the Trump administration, two Israeli defense officials said, that its leaders were cut almost entirely out of the loop on truce talks between the United States and Iran.
Starved of information from their closest ally, the Israelis have been forced to pick up what they can about the back-and-forth between Washington and Tehran through their connections with leaders and diplomats in the region as well as their own surveillance from inside the Iranian regime, said the two officials. Like others for this article, they spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.
The banishment from the cockpit to economy class has potentially significant consequences for Israel, and especially for the prime minister, who faces an uphill re-election battle this year.
Mr. Netanyahu has long sold himself to Israeli voters as a kind of Trump whisperer, uniquely capable of enlisting and retaining the president’s support. In a televised speech early in the war, he portrayed himself as the president’s peer, assuring Israelis that he talked to Mr. Trump “almost every day,” exchanging ideas and advice, “and deciding together.”
He had led Israel to war in February with grand visions of achieving a goal he has pursued for decades: stopping Iran’s push for nuclear weapons once and for all. As the war began with a stunning decapitation of much of the government in Tehran, it seemed as though an even more grandiose dream might come true: the toppling of the regime.
But many in Mr. Trump’s inner circle had always viewed the idea of regime change as absurd. . . .
I’ll say it again: we will not stop Iran from pursuing nuclear weapons unless there is regime change. Trump now seem satisfied with an Iranian promise that “we won’t pursue nukes for 15 years”. But he’s president for only 2.5 more years, and Iran has violated agreements repeatedly. If people don’t know how much Iran wants nuclear weapons, they must be deaf or blind. The report above jibes with the news about a proposed peace deal that will be the subject of the next post.
*I’ve stopped subscribing to Andrew Sullivan’s column since he went full-on anti-Zio and anti-Israel a while back. But I will still get his lucubrations until my yearly fee runs out, And of course there are good and thoughtful bits among the bad. In his piece this week, “The ‘Learned Helplessness’ of 2026,” he had some advice for Democrats and an analysis why they’re advancing a message that will help them win.
Yes, the polls are showing a real slide for Trump. But it’s still incredible that a president this corrupt, this incompetent, and this vile still commands 37 percent support. Yes, this week there were some tiny signs that the constitutional corpse is twitching: maybe paying off violent criminals in a giant, far-right slush fund is not so great, and maybe a ballroom fit for a Russian oligarch can wait — mutter some men pretending to be Senators. But don’t kid yourselves. This is a one-man cult, not a party. They’ll cave. They always do.
And when you look at the alternative that’s supposed to rescue us, the learned helplessness really kicks in.
The Democrats are still ideologically split, have a lame bench of candidates for 2028, and haven’t shifted an iota from the positions that lost them the last election. Their 2024 “autopsy” says nothing of any consequence, and dodges the Biden age issue and the Harris uselessness issue. Even now, with Trump at 37 percent, “70 percent of all registered voters said they were dissatisfied with Democrats. 64 percent said the same of Republicans.” Does it get any more damning than that?\
The next paragraph is a severe but true indictment of what the Democratic party seems to stand for, though it’s largely from the “progressive” part of the party.
And yet the current Dem mood is to do nothing but win the midterms by default — then use that as an excuse to do nothing again. Check out the cross-tabs in the NYT poll. Only 38 percent of Dems think they need to shift on transing children or having boys compete with girls in sports. They still love mass migration and will promise another massive influx in 2028 (as long as it’s “orderly”). “White” is still a term of abuse. Gay men and lesbians are still “queers”. Men are still women and women are still men. When you ask Democrats what they mean by moderation, it’s the exact same far-left policies as Biden’s, but delivered more nicely. Woke isn’t dead. It’s merely waiting.
. . . . So many normie friends of mine have just stopped engaging the news. Every day, another headline is like another electric shock we have become used to. If you actually care — about America, the Constitution, basic decency — the psychic impact is greater: you will be slowly ground down into the dust. There is no point resisting and so, eventually, no point in even paying attention. Reason and deliberation are irrelevant.
That’s why, I suspect, so many very online folks have become crazy caricatures. It’s the only way to survive mentally. It’s psychologically Sisyphean to try to retain intellectual honesty or complexity or a grip on truth in this environment. So many people have just put on a performative partisan mask, and pander. The alternative — to keep being assailed by both sides with brutality and venom most humans naturally recoil from — becomes too much to bear.
I have tried to resist the depression this Weimar culture engenders. It’s my job. I’ve tried to tell the truth about both extremes. I haven’t given up on liberal democracy. But I’d be a fool to believe I have gotten anywhere these past ten years of trying. Trump’s re-election really was an extinction-level event for our former way of life. I was right in 2016. We could have escaped after 2020. But then Biden shat the bed.
All the mountains of ink spilt on Trump’s malfeasance? Hasn’t changed a thing. All the arguments about immigration, crime, transing children, and “white supremacy”? The Democrats are where they were in 2015 and not budging. Only the about-to-die — like Barney — have a chance of saying anything honest, and among Republicans, only those headed for the exits. Obama? A sphinx with a giant ugly stump in Chicago, Netflix gigs, and trips on yachts with billionaires. The few ordinary folks who have stood up in office? Like Massie, they’re just play-putty for the mad king.
Like the rest of us for the foreseeable future.
I am not going to argue about Sullivan’s views on Israel, as there’s nothing novel about them. He just hates the place, and I’m tired of his rants. But ehe lesson in this week’s column is that the Democrats need to clean up their act and realize what the country really wants (and that includes what Democratic voters want). Many voters have become news-weary, and I suspect that translates into a lack of motivation to go to the polls. I too am news-weary, but have to read it, and I will go to the polls.
*NASCAR driver Kyle Busch, one of the best there ever was, died suddenly last week at only 41. Up until now all we knew is that he called for a doctor while in a race, and was coughing up some blood. Earlier in may he reported a “sinus cold” and a caugh. He was taken to the hospital on May 21, where he died after a short while. Now it’s been revealed that he had “severe pneumonia that progressed into sepsis.”
Kyle Busch died after severe pneumonia progressed into sepsis, resulting in rapid and overwhelming associated complications, according to a statement released by his family.
Dakota Hunter, vice president of Kyle Busch Companies, said in a news release the family received the medical evaluation on Saturday.
Busch, a two-time NASCAR champion, died at 41 on Thursday, a day after passing out in a Chevrolet simulator.
Sepsis is considered a life-threatening medical emergency that occurs when the body has an extreme, overactive response to an infection, causing the immune system to damage its own tissues and organs, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Typically the immune system releases chemicals to fight off pathogens like bacteria, viruses or fungi, but with sepsis the response goes into overdrive. The results can cause widespread inflammation, form microscopic blood clots and make blood vessels leak.
Busch was thought to have had a sinus cold while racing at Watkins Glen on May 10 and radioed in to his team saying that he needed a “shot” from a doctor after the race.
. . .Busch, who was preparing to race Sunday at the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway, was testing in the Chevrolet racing simulator in Concord on Wednesday when he became unresponsive and was transported to a hospital in Charlotte, several people familiar with the situation told The Associated Press.
During the emergency call placed late that afternoon, an unidentified caller calmly told the dispatch: “I’ve got an individual that’s (got) shortness of breath, very hot, thinks he’s going to pass out, and is producing a little bit of blood, coughing up some blood.”
You can read about sepsis here. Busch and his wife had an 11-year old son (who plans to race) and a four-year-old daughter. It’s very sad. Please get your pneumonia shotl, though they’re recommended mostly for young children and adults over 50.
Meanwhile in Dobrzyn, Andrzej enlightens Hili:
Hili: History repeats itself. Andrzej: Yes, but it stutters while doing it.
In Polish:
Hili: Historia się powtarza.
Ja: Tak, ale się przy tym jąka.
From Masih: two more Iranian political protestors executed:
While all the mainstream media are talking whether Ahmadinejad is going to replace Khamenei, innocent people are being executed in in Iran every day.
The New York Times, spent this week doing political analysis on a regime that, as you were reading it, was dragging two Kurdish… pic.twitter.com/L08K99ckGp
Posting will probably be limited to this very short Hili today; I am dispirited because the brood of nine mallards (plus mom) that I rescued yesterday was driven out of the pond area by aggressive mallards. I do not know if they will return. This is of course the second time this has happened, and it may well be a duckless summer. I will show pictures when I can bear to look at them.
The drakes are simply too aggressive and mean to permit new broods in the pond; there are too many of them and they attack the mother.
Readers are welcome to mark notable events, births, or deaths on this day by consulting the May 23 Wikipedia page.
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