Can therapists diagnose Trump as mentally ill, and warn people about his potential to promote violence, without examining him?

June 13, 2023 • 9:00 am

I’ve written twice about this subject:  the controversies involving Yale clinical and forensic psychiatrist Bandy X. Lee (no longer at Yale). Lee has been accused of violating the Goldwater rule, which involves giving professional psychiatric opinions about public figures you haven’t examined—in this case Donald Trump. The article below from Mother Jones magazine describes her travails around “diagnosing” Trump and warning of his potential to incite violence. As I wrote in November of 2020:

I agree that Donald Trump is mentally ill, but I’m not a professional, and thus am not bound by the strictures of professional associations to avoid diagnosing someone you haven’t personally examined. And those strictures exist most prominently in the American Psychiatric Association’s (APA’s) “Goldwater rule“, created after a number of psychiatrists pronounced Barry Goldwater unfit for office in 1964. Here’s the rule from the APA’s “Principles of Medical Ethics,” and this rule is still in force:

On occasion psychiatrists are asked for an opinion about an individual who is in the light of public attention or who has disclosed information about himself/herself through public media. In such circumstances, a psychiatrist may share with the public his or her expertise about psychiatric issues in general. However, it is unethical for a psychiatrist to offer a professional opinion unless he or she has conducted an examination and has been granted proper authorization for such a statement.

There doesn’t seem to be a penalty for psychiatrists who flout this rule, however, as psychiatrists who have diagnosed Trump as ill, or even lobbied Congress to proceed with the Trump Dump, have suffered no penalties.

In general I tend to agree with the Goldwater Rule, even if it’s nonbinding and the APA levies no penalties for flouting it (other people, as you’ll see, can punish violators). Yes, I think Trump is mentally ill, afflicted with narcissistic personality disorder, but I still think, as I did three years ago, that giving a professional diagnosis, whether you be a doctor or a psychiatrist (who are doctors), is pretty close to slander, and has far more potentially deleterious consequences than a statement by average Joes like me. “Professional” statements can be used for impeachment, removal from office, and so on. That said, I don’t see a problem with professionals warning the public about the dangers of someone based on their past behavior, without giving them a professional diagnosis. That’s what Lee claims to have done, and she was fired for it.

But in the past, Lee, who never examined Trump, appears to have come pretty close to diagnosing him. In a debate in Salon, Lee not only pronounced Trump to be mentally ill, but then went on to say the Goldwater Rule is itself harmful. Wikipedia notes this:

Lee then stated in an interview with Salon in May 2017 that Trump suffers from mental health issues that amount to a “state of emergency” and that “our survival as a species may be at stake.” She also discussed her political views, linking what she sees as increasing inequality in the United States to a deterioration in collective mental health.

And she discusses the 2020 debate with Biden.

[Salon]: Trump spent most of the debate heckling and interrupting, mixed with some blatant lying. How would you assess his debate performance?

[Lee]: The huge error was in allowing the debate to happen in the first place. “How was his debate performance?” is the wrong question to start. A debate presupposes mental health. We cannot pretend to have one when management of psychological impairment is what is warranted. The majority of the country may be horrified at what he is doing, but we continue to help the disorder in every way possible by treating his behavior as normal. It applies first to the politicians, then to the media and then to pundits who do not come out and honestly say: “This is beyond anything I have seen and beyond what I can understand — can we consult with experts?” And experts, for a psychological matter, would be mental health experts. Perhaps even specialists of personality disorders or sociopathy would be necessary, given the severity.

To me that comes close to giving a professional opinion, but it’s not 100% clear cut. She does say that he has a mental health disorder, and to me that’s a professional opinion. (After all, one psychiatrist said that “he may just be a jerk.”)  There is, of course, a continuum between jerks and the mentally ill, and where to draw the line is unclear.

Bandy went on to organize a conference of mental-health professionals in April, 2017, that resulted in a collection of essays by various therapists,  The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump, a book that became a bestseller. (Note: I haven’t read it.)

Mother Jones reports on the fallout, and on Bandy’s firing from Yale (click on screenshot):

Bandy certainly has the expertise to warn people about potential violence, and that’s what she continued to say about Trump after her book came out: the man has the behavior that tends to lead to violence among his followers, something instantiated in January of 2021.  She has studied criminal gangs and their leaders, and sees their behavior mirrored in Trump’s. She also notes that these leaders lose their influence when they are put in jail. (Bandy also argues that since 1900, violence tends to spike whenever there’s a Republican President.)

At any rate, Bandy continued her warnings about Trump’s likelihood to inspire violence, which of course came true. And she continued to be criticized by the APA.  She appears to have been skirting the Goldwater rule, saying that she didn’t violate it, yet also asserting that the rule doesn’t really apply when there’s another rule that overrides it. This is from her Wikipedia bio:

Lee says that when meeting with lawmakers, she was adhering to the American Psychiatric Association’s guideline, which precedes the Goldwater rule, and which urges psychiatrists “to serve society by advising and consulting with the executive, legislative, and judiciary branches of the government.” In an interview she also said, “whenever the Goldwater rule is mentioned, we should also refer to the Declaration of Geneva, established by the World Medical Association 25 years earlier, which mandates physicians to speak up if there are humanitarian reasons to do so. This Declaration was created in response to the experience of Nazism.”

And from the Mother Jones article:

According to Lee, Trump’s extreme dangerousness puts him in a completely different category from previous Republican presidents, who merely endorsed a set of harsh economic policies that are associated with increased violence. In contrast to past presidents with likely personality disorders, she believes, Trump has a psychological profile that is common among violent offenders. “There is typically a developmental arrest caused by early trauma or abandonment,” Lee says. “As adults, they still act like children in the playground; convinced that might makes right, they often can’t stop bullying others. “Trump’s mother, Lee points out, became chronically ill when he turned two, and his father was cruel and emotionally unavailable, repeatedly urging his son to be “a killer.”

. . . Despite the scolding directed her way by influential psychiatrists, Lee contends that she has never broken the Goldwater Rule, which, as she wrote in 2017, “is the norm of ordinary practice I happen to agree with.” In The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump, she and her co-authors challenged Trump’s fitness to serve based on his behavior rather than on a diagnosis per se. “The issue that we are raising is not whether Trump is mentally ill,” Gilligan writes in his chapter. “It is whether he is dangerous.” As proof of the psychological peril at hand, the authors point to Trump’s angry tirades and verbal abuse of subordinates, his admiration of authoritarian leaders, conspiratorial fantasies, aversion to facts, and attraction to violence.

You can see the conflict here. In the first paragraph, Lee implies that Trump has a personality disorder, and has a psychological profile—connected with childhood abandonment—that leads to bullying and promoting violence.  That sounds very much like a claim derived from professional psychiatric experience. Yet in the second paragraph she says she’s never broken the Goldwater Rule: she was just warning people about Trump’s propensities given his behavior.  But this is a distinction without a difference: that warning comes from professional experience. (Of course, people like us could also make such prognostications without penalty, but a prediction derived from professional experience comes awfully close to violating the Goldwater rule.)

Well, does it matter? Lee turned out to be right, of course, and Trump was impeached (unsuccessfully) as Democratic members of Congress, like Nancy Pelosi, called him “unhinged.” And then there was January 6, and other calls from Trump for his supporters to beat up people.

In the meantime, Lee was fired from teaching at Yale after 17 years following a Twitter kerfuffle with Alan Dershowitz (she said Dershowitz “had taken on ‘Trump’s symptoms by contagion'”, which again skirts the Goldwater rule). Dershowitz complained to Yale about this “violation,” and Yale dumped Lee.  She’s now suing the University and, as she’s become un-hireable in universities, got a degree from Yale Divinity School. She’s now a visiting professor at Union Theological Seminary, where she’ll start a violence prevention institute.

So, if Lee turned out to be right, did she still violate the Goldwater rule? This is a close call, but on balance, and based on the fact that her opinions and warning were derived from her professional expertise, I’d say “yes”.

But two questions remain. First, is the Goldwater rule a good one? I’d say “yes,” given the dangers of chilling public discourse by giving quasi-professional medical opinions. It’s for the same reason that administrators of the University of Chicago don’t make pronouncements on public issues, even when speaking for themselves. It’s because even in private speech, their words carry an imprimatur of authority, and that could chill speech in the University. In some cases violations of the Goldwater rule are clear; if Bandy had diagnosed Trump from afar with narcissistic personality disorder, she would be in violation of the APA’s rule—even though she wasn’t a member of the APA.

But there are no professional sanctions that come with violating the rule.

This leads to the third question: should Bandy have been fired by Yale, even if her predictions about Trump were right? Here I say “no.”  She was fired because Dershowitz complained to Yale about her violations of the Goldwater rule. But even if she violated it, Yale didn’t have an obligation to let Bandy go. And given that she claims, with some justification, that she warned about Trump based on his behavior, not a clinical diagnosis, I don’t think she should have been dumped. After all, Yale derailed the career of an accompanlished psychiatrist. Note how Wikipedia begins her bio:

Bandy Xenobia Lee is an American psychiatrist whose scholarly work includes the writing of a comprehensive textbook on violence.  She is a specialist in public health approaches to violence prevention who consulted with the World Health Organization and initiated reforms at New York’s Rikers Island Correctional Facility.  She helped draft the United Nations chapter on “Violence Against Children,”  leads a project group for the World Health Organization’s Violence Prevention Alliance, and has contributed to prison reform in the United States and around the world.  She taught at Yale School of Medicine and Yale Law School from 2003 through 2020.

That is positive accomplishment, which to me argues against her firing.

And had she been wrong about Trump’s incitement of violence, I still don’t think she should have been fired.  And, as I said, there is some justification for what she did even if she did break the Goldwater rule. After all, she didn’t give a formal diagnosis just to criticize the man: she did it to warn people about what he was capable of doing. (Remember, psychiatrists are allowed to break rules about professional confidence if they think their patients are likely to commit crimes of violence.)

As I said, I haven’t read all of Lee’s writings. But based on what I have read, and on the description in Mother Jones,  which of course does lean way Left, I think Lee was acting according to both her training and her conscience.  Although her warnings didn’t have any effect in impeaching Trump or preventing the insurrection he promoted, she didn’t deserve to have her career forced off the rails by Yale.

Bandy Lee (from her Twitter account)

h/t: Fred

Tuesday: Hili dialogue

June 13, 2023 • 6:52 am

Good morning on The Cruelest Day of the week: it’s Tuesday, June 13, 2023, and National Cupcake Lover’s Day. Given the position of the apostrophe, is only one one cupcake lover being honored here?

Here’s a fancy duck-in-a-pond cupcake to celebrate the day, although Botany Pond is still duckless:

There will be no readers’ wildlife post today as I am down to only a few contributions and must dole them out sparingly.

It’s also Call Your Doctor Day, Weed Your Garden DayWorld Pet Memorial Day, World Softball Day, and International Albinism Awareness Day.

Here is my memorial to Teddy, my beloved cat and the last cat I had. A three-year-old feral street cat, he came in through the cat door and never went out again:

Readers are welcome to mark notable events, births, or deaths on this by consulting the June 13 Wikipedia page.

Wine of the Day:  This puppy below, priced at $26, is a 2020 Rioja, made from 100% garnacha grapes, And it’s named after a cat. How could I not buy it?  I drank the first half it two days ago with my weekly T-bone, which in this case was a fat strip steak—well marbled and even tastier than a T-bone.

The wine was medium-bodied (on the full side) but delicious, redolent of roses and of raspberries. I know this because that very morning I’d had toast with seedless raspberry jam on it. There aren’t many reviews online, but here’s one from the store where I bought it:

“This stylish Garnacha hails from a vineyard that was planted in 1917 and occupies an amphitheatre at 650 meters. The red soils give this some ferrous grip, with subtle reduction, fine tannins, deftly handled new wood and a long, mineral etched finish. 2024-2030.” – 94 Points, Tim Atkin (2022)

The wine store adds this:

The “Peña El Gato” comes from a single, tiny .5-hectare vineyard of organically-farmed, low-yielding, hand-harvested 100-year old Garnacha vines planted at a high elevation of 2100 feet on limestone/clay soils. This special parcel, which he inherited from his grandfather, yields a mere 1200 bottles of wine! That is only 100 cases!

It’s not often I buy a wine that was made in only a 100-case lot.   I finished it off last night with roast chicken, and it had improved in the bottle. After all, a three-year-old Rioja from a good estate will improve for some years and some aeration. (Sadly, I have only one bottle.) As for the value, I’d say this was worth at least 1.5X more than I paid for it. And, as always, I recommend that, if you want a good red at a price that won’t break the bank, ask your wine merchant to recommend a good Rioja. Or, better yet, check the reviews online.

Da Nooz:

*Obituaries first. Silvio Berlesconi, Italian media mogul and then controversial Prime Minister, died of leukemia yesterday morning in Milan. He was 86.

His victory demoralized a generation of the left. Opponents were both obsessed with Mr. Berlusconi and utterly vexed by him, a politician who seemed to be made of electoral Teflon despite a raft of international faux pas, failures to deliver on pie-in-the-sky promises and the tanking of the Italian economy.

Liberal politicians, and the prosecutors he demonized as their judicial wing, watched in dismay as he used appeals and statutes of limitations to avoid punishment despite being convicted of false accounting, bribing judges and illegal political party financing.

His governments spent an inordinate amount of time on laws that seemed tailor-made to protect him from decades of corruption trials, a goal that some of his closest advisers acknowledged was why he had entered politics in the first place.

*Trump will be arraigned today. The NYT tells us what to expect.

Mr. Trump has said the hearing will be at 3 p.m. His team has been discussing security arrangements and procedures for the event with the authorities, and it is not yet clear how certain details will be handled.

Criminal defendants who are taken into custody before an initial court appearance are often handcuffed, fingerprinted and photographed for a mug shot. In April, however, authorities in New York only took Mr. Trump’s fingerprints and did not handcuff or photograph him.

It is also not yet clear which judge will oversee the hearing.

Mr. Trump’s case has been assigned to Judge Aileen M. Cannon, who earlier handled a lawsuit he filed challenging the F.B.I.’s court-authorized search of his Florida estate and club, Mar-a-Lago. That search came in August, after Mr. Trump had not fully cooperated with a subpoena requiring him to give back all the documents with classification markings that he still had.

Mr. Trump never appeared before Judge Cannon during the earlier lawsuit, so if she handles Tuesday’s hearing, it would bring them face to face. But such hearings are often instead overseen by a magistrate judge. On Tuesday, that could be the magistrate who works with Judge Cannon, Bruce Reinhart — who signed the search warrant for Mar-a-Lago — or it could be whatever magistrate judge is on duty at the Miami courthouse.

. . . At the hearing, Mr. Trump is likely to stand quietly next to his lawyer until the judge gives him permission to speak. It is also not yet clear whether Mr. Trump will return for an arraignment later or enter his expected plea of not guilty on Tuesday to eliminate a need to come back for that step.

AN UPDATE:  Mr. Trump was expected to be arrested on Tuesday, but it was unclear whether U.S. marshals would take his fingerprints or photograph him. Those measures are normally used to help identify defendants, but when Mr. Trump was arraigned on unrelated state charges in New York in April, officials felt they were unnecessary given the former president’s level of fame.

Still, it was possible they could happen on Tuesday. Mr. Trump also could have to surrender his passport.

It was also unclear whether the public would get a glimpse of Mr. Trump as he arrived at the courthouse. The former president was expected to enter and exit through an underground garage. In the federal court system, there are no photographs or cameras allowed in the courtroom.

No perp walk; at least not one that we’ll see. Apparently The Donald will enter the courthouse through an underground tunnel, so we don’t get to see him in cuffs with his arms held by the feds.  And I’m upset that, even if he’s convicted, he may not spend a day in prison.

h/t: Dom

*Yesterday’s poll on whether Trump will wind up in jail gave a depressing results: most people (56%) think that Donald Trump will never go to jail (and remember, he’s already indicted and has three more investigations going, and less than half that (26%) think he’ll ever see the inside of a cell.  The rest don’t know, and of course that’s the wisest choice, but it’s no fun. Given that his own attorney general, William Barr, thinks that the evidence in the Miami trial is so strong that Trump is “toast”, I guess these folks think he’ll be convicted and then sentenced to house arrest—at Mar-A-Lago.  And what if he’s convicted several more times?  What this shows is that our readers don’t believe in “equal justice under the law”, with the rich getting off easier.

Chat GPT is in the last column:

As an AI language model, I cannot predict the future, so I cannot say for certain whether Donald Trump will go to jail or not. The question of whether someone goes to jail depends on various factors, including legal proceedings, evidence, and the decision of a court. As of my last knowledge update in September 2021, Donald Trump had not been convicted of any crimes that would result in his imprisonment. However, political and legal situations can change over time, so it is advisable to follow the news and consult reliable sources for the most up-to-date information on any ongoing investigations or legal proceedings involving Donald Trump.

*You’ve surely read about the small-plane crash in a Colombian jungle that killed three people and the mother of four children, who were also aboard. (The father wasn’t on the flight and is still here to take care of the children.)  The remarkable thing is that the children, seated in the rear of the plane, all survived—for more than five weeks in the jungle. The WaPo gives some details:

The four children found alive after surviving for 40 days in a Colombian jungle were told by their mother to leave the site of a plane crash and seek help, their father said. According to the oldest child, their mother lived for about four days after surviving the impact of the crash that left the group stranded in the wilderness, their father, Manuel Ranoque, told reporters Sunday.

Rescuers found the siblings, ages 13, 9, 4 and 1, on Friday, after combing the remote area of Amazon wilderness for five weeks, tracking scattered signs of their survival that included a makeshift shelter and half-eaten fruit. The children are recovering in a hospital.

Last month, searchers found the wreckage and the bodies of three adults, including the children’s mother, but the siblings — who are members of the Huitoto Indigenous group — had left the crash site. Details are slowly emerging about how they managed to survive for 40 days.

I would have thought that in this circumstance—a crash in a very remote area—it would have been best to stay with the plane, but what do I know? It goes on:

Fidencio Valencia, an uncle, told reporters over the weekend that the siblings initially sustained themselves on cassava flour known as fariña, which was being transported aboard the aircraft, according to the Associated Press. The flour is a common source of carbohydrates in the Amazon region. “When the plane crashed, they took out a fariña, and with that, they survived,” Valencia said. “After the fariña ran out, they began to eat seeds.”

In an interview with El Tiempo newspaper, rescuer Henry Guerrero said the children also found one of 100 emergency supply kits scattered by the military — as well as wild fruits and plants in the jungle.

On Sunday, Colombia’s military released images of two colorful drawings produced by the two eldest children from their hospital. “This drawing represents the hope of an entire country,” military officials tweeted.

It’s amazing that the children, including the youngest, survived, but very sad that their mother died after about four days at the crash site. Here are their two drawings; the first one has a cat! (Click drawing to see. Could it be Ceiling Cat, who may have wrought this miracle?)

 

*Once again we have social media canceling the publication of an already-reviewed and published scientific paper—on ideological grounds. As is reported widely (as summarized here by Leor Sair and Colin Wright, and there’s a long explanation here), From the first link:

A case in point: Springer, an academic publishing giant, has decided to retract an article that appeared last month in the Archives of Sexual Behavior. The retraction is expected to take effect June 12.

The article’s authors are listed as Michael Bailey and Suzanna Diaz. Mr. Bailey is a well-respected scientist, with dozens of publications to his name. The other author writes under a pseudonym to protect the privacy of her daughter, who suffers from gender dysphoria.

Their new paper is based on survey responses from more than 1,600 parents who reported that their children, who were previously comfortable in their bodies, suddenly declared a transgender identity after extensive exposure to social media and peer influence. Mr. Bailey’s and Ms. Diaz’s sin was to analyze rapid onset gender dysphoria, or ROGD. Gender activists hate any suggestion that transgender identities are anything but innate and immutable. Even mentioning the possibility that trans identity is socially influenced or a phase threatens their claims that children can know early in life they have a permanent transgender identity and therefore that they should have broad access to permanent body-modifying and sterilizing procedures.

Within days of publication, a group of activists wrote a public letter condemning the article and calling for the termination of the journal’s editor. Among the letter’s signatories is Marci Bowers, a prominent genital surgeon and president of the World Professional Association for Transgender Health, an advocacy organization that promotes sex changes for minors.

The social-media mob, who doesn’t like the idea—surely correct in some instances—that people can become transsexual in part because of social-media pressure, swung into action:

Nearly 2,000 researchers and academics signed a counter letter in support of the article. Springer nonetheless decided to retract the paper without disciplining its editor. Springer initially asserted that the study needed approval from an institutional review board. But it quickly abandoned that rationale, which was false.

The publisher now maintains that the retraction is due to improper participant consent. While the respondents consented to the publication of the survey’s results, Springer insists they didn’t specifically agree to publication in a scholarly or peer-reviewed journal. That’s a strange and retrospective requirement, especially considering that Springer and other major publishers have published thousands of survey papers without this type of consent.

Anyone familiar with the controversy over transgender medicine knows what is going on. Activists put pressure on Springer to retract an article with conclusions they didn’t like, and Springer caved in. We’ve become accustomed to seeing these capitulations in academia, media and the corporate world, but it is especially disturbing to see in a respected medical journal.

The publisher’s excuse is thing gruel: the participants agreed to have the data published (it’s anonymous, of course), but Springer argues, “well, they didn’t agree to have it published in our journsl.”  That is pathetic; it’s crystal clear that the paper was retracted simply because it was ideologically offensive to gender activists.

Meanwhile in Dobrzyn, Hili wants to dine al fresco:

Hili: It’s time for a little something.
Szaron: That’s right, but I’m going to the kitchen.
In Polish:
Hili: Pora na małe co nieco.
Szaron: Zgoda, ale ja idę do kuchni.

********************

From Nicole:

From Pet Jokes & Puns:

From Jesus of the Day:

From Masih, another tweet on the latest murder of an Iranian protestor:

From Barry: the owl binary:

From Malcolm, what a rainbow looks like from above:

 

An eloquent 6-minute speech by a woman arguing for “women’s spaces”. Reader Rosemary adds that “This ‘speech’ was made during Posie Parker’s LetWomenSpeak event in Vienna on June 10.” (This isn’t Posie Parker.)

From the Auschwitz Memorial, a 7-year-old girl gassed on arrival. Look at that smile!

Tweets from Dr. Cobb. The first one shows an American enchanted by the Brit habit of sharing a packet of crisps (potato chips) in pubs.  There aren’t many chips in those pub bags, either!

I know a lot of people who dance like this:

This is apparently real, as recounted by the CBC. Nobody was swallowed, though.

New Zealand authors: using complexity theory is the only way to achieve equity

June 12, 2023 • 12:45 pm

Here we have another article in a science journal (Nature Human Behavior, which has published stuff like this before), which says almost nothing, but uses a lot of words to do so. I recognize some of the writers as New Zealand activists, including Priscilla Wehi, first author of a dreadful article in Journal Roy. Soc. New Zealand (JRSNZ) arguing that Polynesians made it to Antarctica in 700 A.D. This is, of course, a Māori-centered article, and Wehi was trying to “empower” her people by making a palpably false claim, one that was later refuted even by Māori scholars. (Note that a couple of authors work in other countries.)

Click to read, or see the pdf here.

I really don’t want to analyze this paper in detail (you can imagine how wearing it is to deal with this stuff for several hours a day), so I’ll sum it up in a few points.

1.) Structural racism has operated in science (indeed, is promoted) by science to keep minorities down. Here’s one sentence:

Science has been described as promoting exclusion and oppression by rewarding those who practice entrenched norms, including individualism, hypercompetition and productivism, and penalizing those who challenge them.

2.) Attempts to solve this problem by creating new organizations and dispensing grant money haven’t been successful.

3.) Of course we still need to keep boosting the Māori through affirmative action and dispensing more money,but the real solution to the problem requires “embracing complexity theory“.

The idea of interconnectedness is an important part of Māori “ways of knowing” (Mātauranga Māori, or MM), and article’s point is that making more connections between people and organizations will, in the end, bring equity.

H0w does that work? The authors give a helpful diagram, starting with the fact that birds do better when they fly in flocks than singly (this is “complexity”).The bird point is made in a) below:

(From paper): a, The ordering of birds into a flock is an example of a complex system. Triangles represent actors (for example, individuals, communities or institutions). The actors on the left are homogenous, disconnected and unable to effectively respond to interventions. The actors on the right are connected to one another; their ability to receive and respond to feedback enables rapid transitions to an ordered and collective state, such as birds flying in a shared direction of travel. In the flock example, regular switches between leading and trailing positions also share and reduce the overall energetic cost of flight. Image courtesy of Jo Bailey. b, An adaptation of the six conditions of systems change, translated into Māori by M. Kirby (Ngāti Whakaue) for Healthy Families Rotorua. This heuristic identifies six conditions required for sustained and equitable change in complex systems. Adapted from ‘The Water of Systems Change’ FSG, by John Kania, Mark Kramer, and Peter Senge, 2018.

The diagram at the bottom, which isn’t all that enlightening (and is also given in Māori, a language not customary in Nature) , argues that poor health outcomes for Māori (“health inequities”) can be solved by the complexity-theory solution diagrammed in (b) above:

In Aotearoa–New Zealand, our health system has also been unsuccessfully grappling with how to address long-standing and increasing inequities. Although these emergent outcomes have been known for decades, and despite targeted policy and resources, our underlying health systems — and thus trajectories of community health and well-being — remain largely unchanged12.

The whole-of-community systems approach (Fig. 1b) taken by Healthy Families NZ has been described as a game changer in its most recent evaluation report. The initiative makes a strategic move away from fragmented, small-scale and time-limited programmes by supporting existing local action on health, while influencing local and national funding and policies to be more responsive to communities and their diverse contexts (Box 1). Sharing success and failures across the community teams has been key to the initiative’s success, along with fostering a responsive, timely and trusting contractual relationship with the central agency funder.

If you can understand how this works (the caption supposedly will help enlighten you), please explain it in the comments.

At any rate, I’ll close giving the five lessons from “complexity theory” that, say the authors, will help bring equity:

How we act.  This is their explanation of necessary change:

We encourage scientific communities and organizations to identify their shared values and uphold contextually responsive ethical and professional principles. For instance, our approach to research at Te Pūnaha Matatini (a Centre of Research Excellence in Aotearoa–New Zealand) is guided by four principles, which are expressed through a Māori lens. Pono, or a commitment to truth and genuineness, provides the foundation principle to guide both the purpose and practice of our research, and thereby frames the following: tika is to undertake research in ways that are just or right for a given context; and tapu is to do so in ways that recognize the intrinsic value, and rights, of every person and thing. Manaakitanga is to do so in ways that enhance reciprocal relationships of care.

These are taken from MM, and include both moral and technical principles that are often fuzzy (what does it mean to undertake research “in ways that are just or right for a given context”?).

How we lead.  They call for more mentorship and respectful collaboration and trust. That’s fine, but is it either novel or an outcome of complexity theory?

How we resource. What they mean is to incorporate principles of Equity, Diversity, and Inclusion into giving money; in other words give more resources to Māori.

How we evaluate others.   The paragraph below suggests getting rid of traditional merit-based evaluation, replacing it with “community-driven approaches to research evaluation” and “narrative-style CVs”, which to me means obscuring traditional indices of scientific merit (scores, grants, publications) by telling a story. (Pardon me for being cynical):

Many institutions and funding schemes — even those designed to address complex intergenerational challenges — still rely on narrow market-based metrics such as publication productivity and journal impact factor to evaluate ‘excellence’. We support the San Francisco Declaration on Research Assessment (DORA), which promotes practical, robust and community-driven approaches to research evaluation. DORA’s recommendations have informed NSERC Canada’s recent guidelines and the widespread introduction of narrative-style CVs, including in Aotearoa–New Zealand. Initiatives such as these can be used to recognize and affirm diverse expertise, societal impact and care work (such as equity work, mentorship, teaching and peer support) in promotions, hiring and funding decisions.

How we evaluate ourselves. This seems to me to be a long-winded way of saying “adopt the principles of DEI”:

We encourage reflexivity when performing relational duties of care. We urge scientific communities, organizations and funding bodies to recognize diverse histories; to investigate how funding and authority are distributed; to attend to qualitative and quantitative data about why people enter, leave and remain in the science system; and to evaluate and adapt policies accordingly. In general, ongoing reflection on how we are situated in relation to others in the science community — including the purpose and consequences of our work — will help to navigate real-world complexity in ways that are consistent with our principles, and which support the messy work of ‘getting along’ in just ways.

When I got to this point I was getting burned out, for that paragraph (and the entire paper) looks to me like a lot of abstract language about justice and equity without any concrete proposals save “give more power to the indigenous people.”  And even if that were the solution to unequal representation, you don’t need “complexity theory” to implement it.  What the authors seem to have done is appropriate technical language as just a different way of indicting New Zealand for systemic racism, but beyond that add very little of substance. I’m again chagrined that a respectable journal would publish this stuff, but what editor would dare refuse it? What they would refuse to publish is a critique of the authors’ arguments. There is no social-justice paper about STEM so dreadful that a journal will refuse to publish it.

Oh, I forgot to put the authors’ closing challenge:

Our challenge:

Kia mau tau ki tēnā

Kia mau ki te kawau mārō

Whanake ake! Whanake ake!

Stick to that, the straight-flying cormorant!

–Maniapoto

The leading kawau (cormorant) extends its neck forward as it flies, knowing that when it tires another will move forward into its place. Maniapoto, ancestor of the people of Ngāti Maniapoto, translated this phenomenon into an effective military strategy based on coordinated, collective action: te kawau mārō.

To be responsive to the critical challenges of our time, the global science community needs to travel forward in a shared and purposeful direction — one that moves us closer to a better, more just society. We challenge the science community to harness the processes of complexity with intent and urgency to build a science system that is prepared to address the complex global challenges in which we all have a stake.

What is says to me is that “to progress we need to progress, but we should use complexity theory.”

A comment on the MSM’s coverage of trans issues

June 12, 2023 • 11:10 am

On my recent post called “The UK’s National Health Service bans puberty blockers for minors except for clinical trials; NYT reports it without mentioning potential physical harms of blockers,” reader Peter left a very good comment that I’m reproducing here in case you missed it.  (I’ve changed some of the bolding to dispel confusion.)

I agree with dd and disagree with Mike:  The New York Times’ coverage on transgender youth medicine and trans issues in general is subpar. And this is not because the Times does not have excellent journalists. It’s because of editorial decisions made at the top of the Times hierarchy.

This is from a journalist who left the Times in July 2016, after almost 12 years as an editor and correspondent:
Michael Cieply: Stunned By Trump, The New York Times Finds Time For Some Soul-Searching. Nov 10, 2016

. . . it’s important to accept that the New York Times has always — or at least for many decades — been a far more editor-driven, and self-conscious, publication than many of those with which it competes.

. . . Historically, the Los Angeles Times, where I worked twice, for instance, was a reporter-driven, bottom-up newspaper. Most editors wanted to know, every day, before the first morning meeting: “What are you hearing? What have you got?”

It was a shock on arriving at the New York Times in 2004, as the paper’s movie editor, to realize that its editorial dynamic was essentially the reverse. By and large, talented reporters scrambled to match stories with what internally was often called “the narrative.” We were occasionally asked to map a narrative for our various beats a year in advance, square the plan with editors, then generate stories that fit the pre-designated line.

Reality usually had a way of intervening. But I knew one senior reporter who would play solitaire on his computer in the mornings, waiting for his editors to come through with marching orders. Once, in the Los Angeles bureau, I listened to a visiting National staff reporter tell a contact, more or less: “My editor needs someone to say such-and-such, could you say that?”

Here are four indicators to judge the quality of journalism when the topic is transgender stuff:

1) Does the article claim that puberty blockers are reversible? – We don’t know that. The evidence we have rejects this claim.

2) Does the article tell you that many medical associations in the US support gender affirming care? – True, but misleading. There is not one medical association in the US that has based its statements in support of gender-affirming care on a rigorous systematic review of the evidence. Not one! Not the American Academy of Pediatrics. Not the Endocrine Society – it’s guidelines are about the how of gender transition not about whether puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones are a good idea in the first place.

3) Does the article claim that the rate of detransition is low or that experts believe it to be low? – This rate is unknown. There are no good-quality studies on this issue. Even the statement that experts believe that rate to be low is misleading. What is low? Who cares about what experts believe if these believes are not supported by scientific evidence?

See Scott Gavura: Fooling myself.(June 2, 2016)

The first principle is that you must not fool yourself — and you are the easiest person to fool. – Richard Feynman

“The three most dangerous words in medicine: in my experience.” – Mark Crislip

And here: David Isaacs & Dominic Fitzgerald: Seven alternatives to evidence based medicine. British Medical Journal (BMJ), 18-25 December 1999, Vol 319, page 1618

4) Does the article use the expressions “culture war” or “moral panic” to avoid telling the readers what opponents of the radical trans agenda think?

There are some journalists whose writing on trans issues are trustworthy: Lisa Selin Davis, Jesse Singal, Bernard Lane, Leor Sapir (not a journalist, Harvard Ph.D. in political philosophy or political science, writes for City Journal, published by the right-leaning Manhattan Institute, New York). The first three are mainly writing on Substack. Coincidence? Certainly not!

I’ve been reading the New York Times for 25 years. In the last three years the Times has published about 6 good-quality articles on trans issues. The overwhelming majority of Times articles on trans issues are distorted and misleading because the issues are viewed through a partisan/woke lens. Transgender people, because of a history of discrimination, are viewed as sacred victims. Hence, what radical transgender activists say goes. They can’t be wrong. If you criticize their views, then you are ipso facto transphobic. You are charged of arguing from a position of hate, fear or ignorance. (Analogous to Jerry allegedly “punching down,” when he criticizes the howlers that were published recently in Scientific American.)

A critique of woke language

June 12, 2023 • 9:30 am

The Atlantic is beginning to publish a number of articles critical of wokeness, and the one below is one of the best.  George Packer, a staff writer at the magazine, makes the case that “equity language” (you’ll know what it is, but I’ll give some examples) is proliferating, and that’s part of a deliberate strategy to hide uncomfortable truths from people as part of an ideological strategy. It is also, as he says, a form of performative political action: pretending to change the world while actually doing almost nothing.  While the aims of the language-purifiers are good—to help those who are less well off—they do no such thing, and the exponents of language purification actually realize this.  The gap between their aims and their accomplishments, argues Packer, bespeaks a deep pessimism about their ability to actually change anything.

Click to read; if you haven’t read the magazine lately it’s free, and I also found the article archived here.

 

I’ll put a few main points (and quotes) under my own headings, and compare Packer’s thesis to that espoused in Orwell’s wonderful essay Politics and the English Language (free online), as there are many similarities. Quotes from Packer and Orwell are indented; unless I say otherwise, I’m quoting Packer.

The ubiquity of equity language:

Equity-language guides are proliferating among some of the country’s leading institutions, particularly nonprofits. The American Cancer Society has one. So do the American Heart Association, the American Psychological Association, the American Medical Association, the National Recreation and Park Association, the Columbia University School of Professional Studies, and the University of Washington. The words these guides recommend or reject are sometimes exactly the same, justified in nearly identical language. This is because most of the guides draw on the same sources from activist organizations: A Progressive’s Style Guide, the Racial Equity Tools glossary, and a couple of others. The guides also cite one another. The total number of people behind this project of linguistic purification is relatively small, but their power is potentially immense.

Indeed it is. While you may refuse to stop using “field work” to refer to biology done outdoors, terms like “Latinx,” “enslaved person,” and “diverse person” have worked their way into everyday prose.  I myself have used all three of these, and of course you have to be au courant since the words keep changing as the ideological arguments shift. But one result from reading Packer’s work is that I will no longer sacrifice clarity to truckle to the ideology of a few people who decide what terms are proper. Terms like “brown bag lunch,” “Americans”, “blind to this idea”, and similar ones (all demonized) will remain in my vocabulary

Examples of equity language:

In the spirit of Strunk and White, the guides call for using specific rather than general terms, plain speech instead of euphemisms, active not passive voice. Yet they continually violate their own guidance, and the crusade to eliminate harmful language could hardly do otherwise. A division of the University of Southern California’s School of Social Work has abandoned field, as in fieldwork (which could be associated with slavery or immigrant labor) in favor of the obscure Latinism practicum. The Sierra Club offers refuse to take action instead of paralyzed by fear, replacing a concrete image with a phrase that evokes no mental picture. It suggests the mushy protect our rights over the more active stand up for our rights. Which is more euphemistic, mentally ill or person living with a mental-health condition? Which is more vague, ballsy or risk-taker? What are diversityequity, and inclusion but abstractions with uncertain meanings whose repetition creates an artificial consensus and muddies clear thought? When a university administrator refers to an individual student as “diverse,” the word has lost contact with anything tangible—which is the point.

Or, as Orwell said, “words and meaning have almost parted company.”

Why these changes are ideological.

When the San Francisco Board of Supervisors replaces felon with justice-involved person, it is making an ideological claim—that there is something illegitimate about laws, courts, and prisons. If you accept the change—as, in certain contexts, you’ll surely feel you must—then you also acquiesce in the argument.

Likewise, banning the term “paralyzed by fear” (verboten because it’s ableist) has the rationale that describing one form of inaction or indecision somehow worsens the lot of people suffering from physical paralysis. There is of course no evidence for this; it’s an argument made purely to demonstrate that this kind of language hurts groups of people. If there were evidence that it really did, that would be one thing, but there is no evidence for such claims except in the worst cases of ethnic slurs. Can you find anybody actually injured by somone saying, “Tom is off in Montana doing field work”? No; the argument for harm is purely hypothetical. However, as Orwell realized, gaining power over language gives you political power—and that is the point of his essay (and one of the points of his book Nineteen Eighty-Four).

As Packer notes, these changes don’t occur the normal way words and phrases change: through an organic process that people adopt gradually. Instead, the ideological changes are imposed from above by diktat—imposed by a cadre of those who think they know what language will improve society and what language will not.

Why these changes suck the life out of prose. Both Packer and Orwell rewrote passages, putting them into politically correct language, to show how ludicrous the changes are:

Here’s Packer (by the way, I’m going to read Boo’s book):

Katherine Boo’s Behind the Beautiful Forevers is a nonfiction masterpiece that tells the story of Mumbai slum dwellers with the intimacy of a novel. The book was published in 2012, before the new language emerged:

The One Leg’s given name was Sita. She had fair skin, usually an asset, but the runt leg had smacked down her bride price. Her Hindu parents had taken the single offer they got: poor, unattractive, hard-working, Muslim, old—“half-dead, but who else wanted her,” as her mother had once said with a frown.

Translated into equity language, this passage might read:

Sita was a person living with a disability. Because she lived in a system that centered whiteness while producing inequities among racial and ethnic groups, her physical appearance conferred an unearned set of privileges and benefits, but her disability lowered her status to potential partners. Her parents, who were Hindu persons, accepted a marriage proposal from a member of a community with limited financial resources, a person whose physical appearance was defined as being different from the traits of the dominant group and resulted in his being set apart for unequal treatment, a person who was considered in the dominant discourse to be “hardworking,” a Muslim person, an older person. In referring to him, Sita’s mother used language that is considered harmful by representatives of historically marginalized communities.

Equity language fails at what it claims to do. This translation doesn’t create more empathy for Sita and her struggles. Just the opposite—it alienates Sita from the reader, placing her at a great distance. A heavy fog of jargon rolls in and hides all that Boo’s short burst of prose makes clear with true understanding, true empathy.

Orwell did a similar thing:

Now that I have made this catalogue of swindles and perversions, let me give another example of the kind of writing that they lead to. This time it must of its nature be an imaginary one. I am going to translate a passage of good English into modern English of the worst sort. Here is a well-known verse from Ecclesiastes:

I returned and saw under the sun, that the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the wise, nor yet riches to men of understanding, nor yet favour to men of skill; but time and chance happeneth to them all.

Here it is in modern English:

Objective considerations of contemporary phenomena compel the conclusion that success or failure in competitive activities exhibits no tendency to be commensurate with innate capacity, but that a considerable element of the unpredictable must invariably be taken into account.

This is a parody, but not a very gross one.

Why the changes are made.  Of course we already know about the purpose of wokefying language. Although motivated by a form of compassion, the ultimate result, as the proponents may realize, is not only to gain linguistic and hence political power, but to take the sting out of hard reality: to make words like “slave” easier on the ear by calling them “enslaved people.”  And it of course is authoritarian, not only giving power to the language-changes but to demonize those who refuse to go along.  Both Packer and Orwell make these points.

Packer:

The whole tendency of equity language is to blur the contours of hard, often unpleasant facts. This aversion to reality is its main appeal. Once you acquire the vocabulary, it’s actually easier to say people with limited financial resources than the poor. The first rolls off your tongue without interruption, leaves no aftertaste, arouses no emotion. The second is rudely blunt and bitter, and it might make someone angry or sad. Imprecise language is less likely to offend. Good writing—vivid imagery, strong statements—will hurt, because it’s bound to convey painful truths.

. . . and Orwell:

Consider for instance some comfortable English professor defending Russian totalitarianism. He cannot say outright, ‘I believe in killing off your opponents when you can get good results by doing so’. Probably, therefore, he will say something like this:

‘While freely conceding that the Soviet regime exhibits certain features which the humanitarian may be inclined to deplore, we must, I think, agree that a certain curtailment of the right to political opposition is an unavoidable concomitant of transitional periods, and that the rigors which the Russian people have been called upon to undergo have been amply justified in the sphere of concrete achievement.’

The inflated style itself is a kind of euphemism. A mass of Latin words falls upon the facts like soft snow, blurring the outline and covering up all the details. The great enemy of clear language is insincerity. When there is a gap between one’s real and one’s declared aims, one turns as it were instinctively to long words and exhausted idioms, like a cuttlefish spurting out ink. In our age there is no such thing as ‘keeping out of politics’. All issues are political issues, and politics itself is a mass of lies, evasions, folly, hatred, and schizophrenia. When the general atmosphere is bad, language must suffer. I should expect to find — this is a guess which I have not sufficient knowledge to verify — that the German, Russian and Italian languages have all deteriorated in the last ten or fifteen years, as a result of dictatorship.

(Note how well Orwell writes here, using metaphors that actually make you visualize something!)

In the end, politicizing language in this way (and I freely admit that there are a few words that should not be used; you can guess them), corrupts and kills language, corrupts thought, and gives power to those who don’t deserve it. The use of power is particularly invidious because those who mandate language changes are not the same group that the changes are aimed at helping. Language-changing is the purview of the privileged, of professors, and of those who realize that there’s an easy way to control the behavior of other people.

We all recognize that most of the suggested changes in words and phrases are performative; that is, they don’t effect any positive social change. (This is reminiscent of the drive to improve society by getting rid of the common names of all birds named after people, whether those people be good or bad.) The linguistic changes don’t bring different groups of people together or reduce divisions in society. Now perhaps some of the language police really think their efforts will make big changes in society, but it’s hard to argue that convincingly.

Instead, the main result is to make the privileged exponents of language change feel better about themselves—a form of linguistic narcissism.  But Packer does make a new and important point at the end: language-policing bespeaks a deep pessimism about the possibility of social change. Perhaps this is because its promoters realize that to really produce meaningful social change, we need long-term, difficult, and expensive work done to ensure, as far as possible, that all people get equal opportunities from birth. This is a practical impossibility, but we can surely get closer to that goal, though it will require real work and financial sacrifice from those who are better off off.  It’s curious, but not coincidental, that the both rejection of the idea of real progress and the drive to purify language, comes from the left, once the habitat of Free Speech.

Packer:

This huge expense of energy to purify language reveals a weakened belief in more material forms of progress. If we don’t know how to end racism, we can at least call it structural. The guides want to make the ugliness of our society disappear by linguistic fiat. Even by their own lights, they do more ill than good—not because of their absurd bans on ordinary words like congresswoman and expat, or the self-torture they require of conscientious users, but because they make it impossible to face squarely the wrongs they want to right, which is the starting point for any change. Prison does not become a less brutal place by calling someone locked up in one a person experiencing the criminal-justice system. Obesity isn’t any healthier for people with high weight. It’s hard to know who is likely to be harmed by a phrase like native New Yorker or under fire; I doubt that even the writers of the guides are truly offended. But the people in Behind the Beautiful Forevers know they’re poor; they can’t afford to wrap themselves in soft sheets of euphemism. Equity language doesn’t fool anyone who lives with real afflictions. It’s meant to spare only the feelings of those who use it.

The project of the guides is utopian, but they’re a symptom of deep pessimism. They belong to a fractured culture in which symbolic gestures are preferable to concrete actions, argument is no longer desirable, each viewpoint has its own impenetrable dialect, and only the most fluent insiders possess the power to say what is real. What I’ve described is not just a problem of the progressive left. The far right has a different vocabulary, but it, too, relies on authoritarian shibboleths to enforce orthodoxy. It will be a sign of political renewal if Americans can say maddening things to one another in a common language that doesn’t require any guide.

And Orwell’s ending:

. . . one ought to recognise that the present political chaos is connected with the decay of language, and that one can probably bring about some improvement by starting at the verbal end. If you simplify your English, you are freed from the worst follies of orthodoxy. You cannot speak any of the necessary dialects, and when you make a stupid remark its stupidity will be obvious, even to yourself. Political language — and with variations this is true of all political parties, from Conservatives to Anarchists — is designed to make lies sound truthful and murder respectable, and to give an appearance of solidity to pure wind. One cannot change this all in a moment, but one can at least change one’s own habits, and from time to time one can even, if one jeers loudly enough, send some worn-out and useless phrase — some jackboot, Achilles’ heel, hotbed, melting pot, acid test, veritable inferno, or other lump of verbal refuse — into the dustbin where it belongs.

Speaking of dustbins, I’m making an effort to unwoken my language, and I’d recommend that you think twice before you automatically adopt the politically correct recommendations.  I’ve been using some PC language, even on this website—going along to get along. But that’s not a good reason for changing one’s writing.

h/t: Merilee

Readers’ wildlife photos

June 12, 2023 • 8:15 am

There will be a hiatus tomorrow as the photo tanks is dangerously low.  But today we have photos from central California by UC Davis ecologist Susan Harrison. Her narrative and IDs are indented, and you can enlarge the photos by clicking on them.

 

Lake Berryessa and its Ospreys

The easternmost valley of Napa County is covered by Lake Berryessa, a reservoir that sends water to the burgeoning ‘burbs and Budweiser brewery of Solano County.  The dam was built by the Army Corps in 1957 over bitter protests by the valley’s farmers, ranchers, and other residents who called their then-home an agrarian paradise. The valley’s demise was hauntingly chronicled by famous midcentury photographer Dorothea Lange.

(Oh well – giant vineyards would probably have been the valley’s modern fate, elsewise.)

Lake Berryessa:

The dam lies at a narrow gorge called Devils Gate, formed by – guess what – an earthquake fault.  “If you want to find a fault, look for a dam,” once quipped late UC Davis geologist Eldridge Moores.  If the Monticello Fault ever lets rip, the towns of Winters, Dixon and Davis would be inundated as shown in this simulation.

Devils Gate and Monticello Dam:

Because the canyon was too narrow for a conventional spillway, the dam has a huge vertical drain known to all as the Glory Hole, which is quite a dramatic sight when water spills into it.  A Double-Crested Cormorant (Nannopterum auritum) was once filmed swimming into the Glory Hole; it emerged unscathed at the dam’s base 200 feet below!

The Glory Hole:

Lake Berryessa made national news in 1969 as the scene of a Zodiac killing, and in 2020 when California’s wildfire “Year from Hell” was epitomized by incinerating homes and habitats around the lake (no-one was hurt, thankfully).

Fire devouring Berryessa Senior Center, courtesy New York Times:

But let us speak of happier things:  Osprey nesting season!   The lake has at least eight Osprey (Pandion haliaetus) nests ranged along its western shore.  Some nests, but not all, are on the nesting platforms meant to keep birds away from power lines.

Ospreys incubate their eggs for 36-42 days and feed their 1-4 nestlings for another 50-55 days, per  AllAboutBirds.   That’s parental dedication!

Nesting Osprey:

Calling to their mates who are hunting nearby:

Giving a photographer the stink-eye:

Taking a wing stretch:

Beneath at least two Osprey nests, House Finches (Haemorhous mexicanus) were nesting.  Are finches doing this only because big nests are a nice shelter, or also because Ospreys scare away medium-sized predators like Cooper’s Hawks (Accipiter cooperii)?  Hummingbirds and other songbirds are known to nest in the comparatively safe neighborhood of large hawks’ nests.

House Finch at Osprey nest:

Besides year-round Ospreys, Lake Berryessa supports wintering Bald Eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus), American White Pelicans (Pelecanus erythrorhynchos), Western Grebes (Aechmophorus occidentalis) and Clark’s Grebes (Aechmophorus clarkii).  Perhaps this abundance of large fish-eating birds is some compensation for Paradise Lost?

Monday: Hili dialogue

June 12, 2023 • 6:45 am

It’s the top of the work week: Monday, June 12, 2023, and National Peanut-Butter Cookie Day. Perhaps, if you’re in Alabama, you can have a yellowhammer cookie, the new Official State Cookie made with peanuts, walnuts, and peanut butter:

It’s also Magic Day, Red Rose Day, National Jerky Day, Women Veterans Day, World Day Against Child Labour, and Loving Day, the anniversary of the 1967 Supreme Court decision (Loving v. Virginia) that legalized mixed-race marriages throughout America. (I can’t believe that mixed-race marriages were still illegal in some places the year I graduated from high school.)

Here they are in life. Mildred and Richard Loving:

And they rest together in death:

Readers are welcome to mark notable events, births, or deaths on this by consulting the June 12 Wikipedia page.

Da Nooz:

*The NYT reports that Ukraine expelling all Russians from their territory is an “unlikely” outcome of their spring offensive.

Much rides on the outcome. There is little doubt the new military drive will influence discussions of future support for Ukraine as well as debates about how to guarantee its future. What remains unclear, though, is exactly what the United States, Europe and Ukraine view as a “successful” counteroffensive.

Publicly, American and European officials are leaving any definition of success to President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine. For now, Mr. Zelensky has not laid out any public goals, beyond his oft-stated demand that Russian troops must leave the whole of Ukraine. He is known as a master communicator; any perception that he is backing off that broad ambition would risk undermining his support at a critical moment.

Privately, U.S. and European officials concede that pushing all of Russia’s forces out of occupied Ukrainian land is highly unlikely. Still, two themes emerge as clear ideas of “success”: that the Ukrainian army retake and hold on to key swaths of territory previously occupied by the Russians, and that Kyiv deal the Russian military a debilitating blow that forces the Kremlin to question the future of its military options in Ukraine.

Does that qualify as winning? Not if you’re left with less than you had before.

Some battlefield success, whether by decimating Russia’s army, claiming some territory or both, could help Kyiv secure additional military aid from Europe and the United States. It would also build confidence in allied capitals that their strategy of remaking Ukraine’s forces into a Western-style military is working. And most importantly, such an outcome would build more support in Europe for some sort of long-term security guarantee for Kyiv and strengthen Ukraine’s hand at a bargaining table.

Success is not guaranteed. Throughout the war, the Ukrainian army, with deeply motivated troops, creative military operations and advanced Western weaponry, has outperformed Russia’s military. But the Ukrainians have also found it difficult to dislodge the Russians from their entrenched defensive positions in the last few months, with the front lines barely moving.

The report adds that American analysts think that victories would be smaller: retaking parts of the Dobas, retaking the nuclear plant at Zaporizhzhia, and, importantly, retaking the land bridge between Ukraine and Russian-controlled Crimea, cutting off Russia’s access to resupplying that once-Ukrainian land that’s now a fortress.

*The WaPo explains why Trump has been charged with possessing secret government documents, and Pence and Hillary Clinton were not (and why Biden surely won’t be as well). We went over that a bit yesterday but here’s some additional news:

Notably, however,the indictment does not charge Trump with the illegal retention of any of the 197 documents he returned to the archives.

That shows that if Trump had simply returned all the classified documents he had, he probably never would have been charged with any crimes, said Robert Mintz, a former federal prosecutor.

“This is not a case about what documents were taken, it’s about what former president Trump did after the government sought to retrieve those documents,” said Mintz, who noted that willful-retention cases often hinge on how much evidence prosecutors can find that a person deliberately hid material or refused to give it back.

The indictment offers anecdote after alleged anecdote charging that the former president sought to hide and keep some of the classified papers, so much so that Trump and Nauta are accused of conspiring to obstruct the investigation and scheming to conceal the truth not just from the government, but even from Trump’s own lawyer.

“This is not a case about what documents were taken, it’s about what former president Trump did after the government sought to retrieve those documents,” said Mintz, who noted that willful-retention cases often hinge on how much evidence prosecutors can find that a person deliberately hid material or refused to give it back.

The indictment offers anecdote after alleged anecdote charging that the former president sought to hide and keep some of the classified papers, so much so that Trump and Nauta are accused of conspiring to obstruct the investigation and scheming to conceal the truth not just from the government, but even from Trump’s own lawyer.

To my great dismay, the NBC News reported last night that even if convicted, Trump is unlikely to spend any time in jail. That’s because, they said, there’s no way the Secret Service could protect an ex-President, which they’re required to do, if he’s in jail.  I suggest solitary confinement with rotating Secret Service agents sitting outside the Donald’s cell.

Let’s have a poll! (Please vote.)

Will Donald Trump ever be put in jail?

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*Affirmative action (race-based admissions) will soon be declared illegal by the Supreme Court, but they’re already illegal in California. How did a Democratic Party core issue get overturned in that state?

Mr. Romero was one of millions of California voters, including about half who are Hispanic and a majority who are Asian American, who voted against Proposition 16, which would have restored race-conscious admissions at public universities, and in government hiring and contracting.

The breadth of that rejection shook supporters. California is a liberal bastion and one of the most diverse states in the country. That year, President Biden swamped Donald Trump by 29 percentage points in California, but Proposition 16 went down, with 57 percent of voters opposing it.

. . .But Proposition 16 suggests the politics of affirmative action are different. The results exposed a gulf between the party establishment and its voters.

To make sense of its failure, The New York Times analyzed the 2020 vote, focusing on Los Angeles County, the nation’s most populous county, and spoke to dozens of voters across demographic groups.

Los Angeles voters, an ethnically diverse and liberal lot, passed the proposition by a mere whisker, 51 percent to 49 percent. And the Times analysis of electoral precincts found across all races, support for the referendum fell well short of support for Joe Biden on the same ballot.

This was true across majority Black, Asian, Hispanic and white precincts.

. . . the Times analysis and interviews showed support for Proposition 16 is often divided along racial lines, with Black voters supporting it, while Asian voters rejected it. In fact, nearly all majority Asian precincts in Los Angeles voted against the proposition. And across racial and ethnic groups, support for the referendum fell short of support for Mr. Biden.

This was true even of majority Black precincts in Los Angeles, which supported Proposition 16 by wide margins. Mr. Biden outpaced that support by an average of about 15 percentage points

. . .Valerie Contreras, a crane operator, is a proud union member and civic leader in Wilmington, where half the voters were against the referendum. She had little use for the affirmative action campaign.

“It was ridiculous all the racially loaded terms Democrats used,” she said. “It was a distraction from the issues that affect our lives.”

Asian voters spoke of visceral unease. South and East Asians make up just 15 percent of the state population, and 35 percent of the undergraduates in the University of California system.

Affirmative action, to their view, upends traditional measures of merit — grades, test scores and extracurricular activities — and threatens to reduce their numbers.

. . . He was not surprised, however, that many Asian Americans balked. “The notion that you would look at anything other than pure academic performance is seen by immigrants as antithetical to American values,” he said.

Overall, blacks favor affirmative action, but make up such a small proportion of the population (less than 6%), and there are a lot of Hispanics and Asians, who aren’t so keen on race-based admission.

*It’s been reported that Ted Kaczynski, the “Unabomber”, who was found dead in his cell on Saturday, actually committed suicide. I figured he was terminally ill when I heard that was transferred from Florence ADX, America’s toughest prison, to a prison hospital in North Carolina. And, to be sure, his illness is likely the factor that caused him to kill himself:

Ted Kaczynski, known as the “Unabomber,” who carried out a 17-year bombing campaign that killed three people and injured 23 others, died by suicide, four people familiar with the matter told The Associated Press.

Kaczynski, who was 81 and suffering from late-stage cancer, was found unresponsive in his cell at the Federal Medical Center in Butner, North Carolina, around 12:30 a.m. on Saturday. Emergency responders performed CPR and revived him before he was transported to a hospital, where he was pronounced dead later Saturday morning, the people told the AP. They were not authorized to publicly discuss Kaczynski’s death and spoke to the AP on condition of anonymity.

Kaczynski had been held in the federal Supermax prison in Florence, Colorado, since May 1998, when he was sentenced to four life sentences plus 30 years for a campaign of terror that set universities nationwide on edge. He admitted committing 16 bombings from 1978 and 1995, permanently maiming several of his victims.

In 2021, he was transferred to the federal medical center in North Carolina, a facility that treats prisoners suffering from serious health problems. Bernie Madoff, the infamous mastermind of the largest-ever Ponzi scheme, died at the facility of natural causes the same year.

*Two giant inflatable ducks were released in Hong Kong’s harbor on Friday. By Saturday, one of them had deflated.

 Two giant inflatable ducks made a splash in Hong Kong’s Victoria Harbor on Friday, marking the return of a pop-art project that sparked a frenzy in the city a decade ago.

The two 18-meter-tall yellow ducks by Dutch artist Florentijn Hofman resemble the bath toys many played with in their childhood. Shortly after their launch, dozens of residents and tourists flocked to the promenade near the government headquarters in Admiralty to snap photos of the ducks.

Hofman said he hopes the art exhibition brings joy to the city and connects people as they make memories together.

“Double duck, double luck,” he said. “In a world where we suffered from a pandemic, wars and political situations, I think it is the right moment to bring back the double luck.”

Double duck, double luck! After the launch

(from AP): Members of the public photograph an art installation called “Double Ducks” by Dutch artist Florentijn Hofman at Victoria Harbour in Hong Kong, Friday, June 9, 2023. Two giant inflatable ducks made a splash in Hong Kong’s Victoria Harbor on Friday, marking the return of a pop-art project that sparked a frenzy in the city a decade ago. (AP Photo/Louise Delmotte)

One of the two giant inflatable ducks floating in Hong Kong’s Victoria Harbor deflated on Saturday, just a day after they were unveiled to revelers.

Crowds of residents and tourists flocked in the scorching heat to the promenade near the government headquarters in Admiralty to snap photos of the ducks by Dutch artist Florentijn Hofman. But many who arrived in the afternoon only found one duck intact, with the other reduced to a puddle of yellow plastic.

Organizers said their staff found one of the ducks was overstretched due to the hot weather and rising air pressure.

Duck and tourists both deflated!:

(From AP): An art installation called “Double Ducks” by Dutch artist Florentijn Hofman as one of the duck is deflated at Victoria Harbour in Hong Kong, Saturday, June 10, 2023. (AP Photo/Louise Delmotte)

Meanwhile in Dobrzyn, Hili is spouting bromides:

Hili: Nature is like a book.
A: In what sense?
Hili: Sometimes fascinating, sometimes boring.
In Polish:
Hili: Natura jest jak książka.
Ja: W jakim sensie?
Hili: Czasem fascynująca, a czasem nudna.

And a photo of a cute but sleepy Baby Kulka:

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From Doc Bill:

From Pet Jokes & Puns:

From Mark:

A tweet from Masih, showing another protestor who was killed. The Google translation:

IRGC officers shot and killed Kian’s mother’s cousin#Poya_MolayiRad today on his birthday. Khamenei and his agents are responsible for all the crimes and destruction of this land. Let’s not let them fill our innocent children one by one. It is the duty of all of us to stand by the Kian family and against the murderers and demand their innocent blood. #Woman_Life_Freedom.

From reader Jez and his wife:

From Barry: a firefly taking off. “Lights on?” “Check.”

 

The British Library apparently removed this tweet. Do you suppose it realized that sequential hermaphroditism in fish has nothing to do with either human transsexuality or homosexuality? Or did the tweet get “ratioed”

From the Auschwitz Memorial, a woman who escaped, was eventually recaptured and sent to another camp, but survived and was liberated!

Tweets from Dr. Cobb, still in Norway, I believe. If you EVER get to Boston or Cambridge, go see the glass flowers at Harvard’s Museum of Comparative Zoology. They are the most stunning glass objects I’ve ever seen, so realistic that you have trouble distinguishing them from real plants. They are a fantastic and underappreciated wonder.

This is really scary!

We’re seeing this fantastic conjunction as it looked 160 million years ago!