Trump just lost any chance he had to be President

July 27, 2016 • 5:57 pm

Donald Trump has recovered from many missteps, but he’s just made one that, I think, is fatal. I refer, of course, to his call that Russia should get hold of Hillary Clinton’s deleted emails and give them to the United States press. See below:

This is, of course, a call for either espionage or the handing over of material obtained already by espionage. And it’s unprecedented.

Now Trump, clueless and ignorant as he is, may be conflating Clinton’s personal-server emails with the Democratic National Committee emails released by Wikileaks, which were probably obtained by Russian hackers and perhaps by Russian government hackers. As his erstwhile ghostwriter says, Trump has zero attention span and may simply be confused.

Regardless, this is an extraordinarily stupid thing to say, and of course the Democrats will make bales of hay out of it tonight.  Even Mike Pence, Trump’s vice-presidential pick, said that releasing illegally obtained emails is a serious matter. Republicans, probably in a state of shock upon realizing who they’ve chosen, have said very little.

My take: although I’ve always thought that Trump wouldn’t win the Presidency, now I’m absolutely sure of it. He won’t recover from this one. Even if he’s leading in some polls, the Democrats will surely get a post-convention bounce.

And, if any of you still think Trump can or will win, please contact me, as I’m willing to bet you good money that he won’t. That’s a bet you can’t lose, because anybody reading this site will be glad to pay off a bet if Trump loses!

“I’ll follow the sun”

July 27, 2016 • 2:30 pm

Reader Su called my attention to this lovely time-lapse video of cats following sunlight. Two hypotheses arise: 1. Cats like sitting in the sun, or 2. Cats require solar power to live. Which is it?

Unlike the music accompanying most cat videos, I like this music.

And if I’ve posted this before, which is entirely possible (the site started in January 2009), don’t remind me!

Book on bees of the world has a mimetic fly on the cover – update

July 27, 2016 • 1:30 pm

Matthew Cobb, who does social media, called my attention to a post today by environmentalist and writer Brigid Strawbridge; it’s about a book on the world’s bees. Here it is. Notice anything strange? Hint: count the wings:

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Bees, in the order Hymenoptera, have four wings, like this:

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What we see above on the cover of Bees of the World, an authoritative reference book, is a  fly: a hoverfly—or “syrphid”—to be exact. Strawbridge’s post points this out, and explains why the authors might have made the error.

Hoverflies are in the order Diptera, which means “two wings”; and of course all flies, like the one on the cover, have two wings. I’m not sure how this slipped past the authors, but one reason is that these hoverflies are Batesian mimics: harmless flies that have evolved to resemble an insect (a bee in this case) avoided by predators.  Many species of syrphids, as Matthew Cobb pointed out in an earlier post, mimic bees and wasps. Here’s a big group of syrphids that are Batesian mimics. The one on the upper left is especially convincing. And, as Matthew pointed out, syrphids can mimic the behavior of hymenoptera as well, further deluding potential predators.

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When Brigit pointed out the embarrassing cover illustration in her post, she added this:

However, the internet is awash with wonderful, well researched, articles about bees that have been illustrated with photographs of hoverflies.

She goes on to explain Batesian mimicry, but since I’ve done that here several times before, I’m sure you all understand it.

h/t: Michael

UPDATE: There’s undoubtedly a name for the taxonomic version of the well known phenomenon of someone complaining about a typo or some other error, and including an error of their own. We – and Brigit Strawbridge – are guilty of exactly this error. For, as pointed out in the comments below and on Twitter by Morgan Jackson, the fly on the cover of the Bee book is *not* a hoverfly. It’s a muscid, and is NOT a mimic, as close inspection reveals. Nostra culpa. That having been said, many media outlets do indeed illustrate articles about bees and wasps with pictures of hoverflies. And while that is annoying to taxonomists (almost as annoying as mixing up a muscid and a syrphid), and can be used to tut-tut at the ignorance of photo editors and journalists, it also underlines the fact that these are often amazing mimics, which can fool a lot of the people, a lot of the time. – MC, p.p. PCC(E)

The growing autocracy in Turkey: more journalists detained

July 27, 2016 • 12:30 pm

We are witnessing a once vital country, the most secular and vibrant nation in the Mideast, become an autocratic theocracy. I refer, of course, to Turkey, where President Erdogan continues to use the recent coup to get rid of anyone who opposes (or even criticizes) him. As Reuters reports, Turkey just detained another 47 journalists, bringing the total number of people arrested after the coup to around 8000, and total number detained to around 15,000. In this case the journalists were suspected of being sympathetic to Fethullah Gülen, a Turkish cleric and writer who was once Erdogan’s pal but fell into disrepute after criticizing his regime for corruption. Erdogan sees Gülen as the mastermind of the failed coup. Reuters:

The detention of journalists ordered on Wednesday involved columnists and other staff of the now defunct Zaman newspaper, a government official said. Authorities in March shut down Zaman, widely seen as the Gulen movement’s flagship media organization.

“The prosecutors aren’t interested in what individual columnists wrote or said,” said the official, who requested anonymity. “At this point, the reasoning is that prominent employees of Zaman are likely to have intimate knowledge of the Gulen network and as such could benefit the investigation.”

However, the list includes journalists, such as Sahin Alpay, known for their leftist activism who do not share the religious world view of the Gulenist movement. This has fueled the concerns that the investigation may be turning into a witch-hunt of the president’s political opponents.

On Monday, media reported that arrest warrants had been issued for 42 other journalists, 16 of whom have so far been taken into custody.

After all dissent is quashed, the free press dismantled, and the army officers put away for a long time (if not executed), I predict that the Islamist-ization of the country will begin, with imams being given greater power and secularism correspondingly diminished. I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t think I am.

 

Has the evolution of consciousness been explained?

July 27, 2016 • 11:00 am

Michael Graziano is a neuroscientist, a professor of psychology at Princeton University, and, on the side, writes novels for both children and adults. His speciality is the neurology and evolutionary basis of consciousness, about which he’s written several pieces at The Atlantic.

His June 6 piece, “A new theory explains how consciousness evolved“, attempts to trace how consciousness (which I take to be the phenomenon of self-awareness and agency) could arise through evolution. This is a very good question, although resolving it will ultimately require understanding the “hard problem” of consciousness—the very fact that we are self-aware and see ourselves as autonomous beings. We’re a long way from understanding that, though Graziano is working on the neuroscience as well as the evolution.

In the meantime, he’s proposed what he calls the “Attention Schema Theory,” or AST, which is a step-by-step tracing of how consciousness might have arisen via evolutionary changes in neuronal wiring. To do this, as Darwin did when trying to understand the stepwise evolution of the eye, you need to posit an adaptive advantage to each step that leads from primitive neuronal stimuli (like the “knee reflex”) to full-fledged consciousness of the human sort.

That, of course is difficult. And we’re not even sure if the neuronal configurations that produced consciousness were really adaptive for that reason—that is, whether the phenomenon of consciousness was something that gave its early possessors a reproductive advantage over less conscious individuals.  It’s possible that consciousness is simply an epiphenomenon—something that emerges when one’s brain has evolved to a certain level of complexity. If that were the case, we wouldn’t really need to explain the adaptive significance of consciousness itself, but only of the neural network that produced it as a byproduct.

Now I haven’t read Graziano’s scholarly publications about the AST; all I know is how he describes it in the Atlantic piece. But, as I’ve already said, if you’re describing some complex science in a popular article, at least the outline of that science should be comprehensible and make sense. And that’s what I find missing in the Atlantic article. Graziano lucidly describes the steps by which a lineage could become more complex in its sensory system, with each step possibly enhancing reproduction. But when he gets to the issue of consciousness itself—the phenomenon of self-awareness—he jumps the shark, or, rather, dodges the problem.

Here are the steps he sees in the AST, and when each step might have occurred in evolution.

1.) Simple acquisition of information through neurons or other sensory organs. This could have happened very early; after all, bacteria are able to detect gradients of light and chemicals, and they were around 3.5 billion years ago.

2.) “Selective signal enhancement,” the neuronal ability to pay attention to some environmental information at the expense of other information. If your neuronal pathways can compete, with the “winning signals” boosting your survival and reproduction, this kind of enhancement will be favored by selection. This will confer on animals the ability to adjudicate conflicting or competing signals, paying attention to the most important ones. Since arthropods but not simpler invertebrates can do this, Graziano suggests that this ability arose between 600 and 700 million years ago.

3.) A “centralized controller for attention” that could draw one’s “overt attention” among inputs from several different sensory systems (for example, you might want to go after the smell of food rather than toward the darkness, as in that moment it’s better to get food than to hide). This, says Graziano, is controlled by the part of the brain called the tectum, which evolved about 520 million years ago.

The tectum, Graziano adds, works by forming an “internal model” of all the different sensory inputs. As he says,

The tectum is a beautiful piece of engineering. To control the head and the eyes efficiently, it constructs something called an internal model, a feature well known to engineers. An internal model is a simulation that keeps track of whatever is being controlled and allows for predictions and planning. The tectum’s internal model is a set of information encoded in the complex pattern of activity of the neurons. That information simulates the current state of the eyes, head, and other major body parts, making predictions about how these body parts will move next and about the consequences of their movement. For example, if you move your eyes to the right, the visual world should shift across your retinas to the left in a predictable way. The tectum compares the predicted visual signals to the actual visual input, to make sure that your movements are going as planned. These computations are extraordinarily complex and yet well worth the extra energy for the benefit to movement control. In fish and amphibians, the tectum is the pinnacle of sophistication and the largest part of the brain. A frog has a pretty good simulation of itself.

I’m still not sure what this “internal model” is: the very term flirts with anthropomorphism. If it’s simply a neuronal system that prioritizes signals and feeds environmental information to the brain in an adaptive way, can we call that a “model” of anything? The use of that word, “model,” already implies that some kind of rudimentary consciousness is evolving, though of course such a “model” is perfectly capable of being programmed into a computer that lacks any consciousness.

4.) A mechanism for paying “covert” as well as “overt” attention. Covert attention is stuff that we attend to in our brains without directly paying attention to it. An example is focusing your hearing on a specific conversation nearby and ignoring extraneous sounds. Of course the very concept of “paying selective attention” sort of implies that we have some kind of consciousness, for who is doing the “paying”?

The part of the brain that controls covert attention, says Graziano, is the cortex. That evolved with the reptiles, about 300 million years ago.

And here’s where the problem with the article lies, for Graziano subtly, almost undetectably, says that with this innovation we’ve finally achieved consciousness. His argument is a bit tortuous, though. First he gives a thought experiment that implies cortex = consciousness, then undercuts that thought experiment by saying that that that doesn’t really explain. consciousness. He then reverses direction again, bringing consciousness back to center stage. It’s all very confusing, at least to me.

Here’s the part where consciousness comes into his piece. Graziano starts with crocodiles, which have a selectively attentive cortex, and describes a Gedankenexperiment that explictly suggests consciousness:

Consider an unlikely thought experiment. If you could somehow attach an external speech mechanism to a crocodile, and the speech mechanism had access to the information in that attention schema in the crocodile’s wulst, that technology-assisted crocodile might report, “I’ve got something intangible inside me. It’s not an eyeball or a head or an arm. It exists without substance. It’s my mental possession of things. It moves around from one set of items to another. When that mysterious process in me grasps hold of something, it allows me to understand, to remember, and to respond.”

But then Graziano takes it back, for he realizes that selective attention itself could be a property of neuronal networks, and doesn’t imply anything about the self-awareness and sense of “I” and “agency” that we call consciousness. (Note that the words “I’ve got something intangible inside me” is an explicitly conscious thought.) But in denying the intangibility of consciousness, he simultaneously affirms his presence. Here’s where the rabbit comes out of the hat:

The crocodile would be wrong, of course. Covert attention isn’t intangible. It has a physical basis, but that physical basis lies in the microscopic details of neurons, synapses, and signals. The brain has no need to know those details. The attention schema is therefore strategically vague. It depicts covert attention in a physically incoherent way, as a non-physical essence. And this, according to the theory, is the origin of consciousness. We say we have consciousness because deep in the brain, something quite primitive is computing that semi-magical self-description. Alas crocodiles can’t really talk. But in this theory, they’re likely to have at least a simple form of an attention schema.

But an “attention schema” isn’t consciousness, not in the way that we think of it. Nevertheless, Graziano blithely assumes that he’s given an adaptive scenario for the evolution of consciousness, an evolution that’s only enhanced because you also have to model the consciousness of others—what Dan Dennett calls “the intentional stance.” Graziano:

When I think about evolution, I’m reminded of Teddy Roosevelt’s famous quote, “Do what you can with what you have where you are.” Evolution is the master of that kind of opportunism. Fins become feet. Gill arches become jaws. And self-models become models of others. In the AST, the attention schema first evolved as a model of one’s own covert attention. But once the basic mechanism was in place, according to the theory, it was further adapted to model the attentional states of others, to allow for social prediction. Not only could the brain attribute consciousness to itself, it began to attribute consciousness to others.

So here he’s finessed the difficulty of self-awareness by simply asserting that once you have mechanisms for providing both covert and overt attention, you have consciousness. I don’t agree (though of course I’ve read only this article). Why couldn’t a computer do exactly the same things, but without consciousness? In fact, they do those things, as in self-driving cars.

Graziano goes on to say that figuring out what other members of your species do, based on the notion that they have consciousness, is itself a sign of consciousness. And again I don’t agree. A computer can have an “intentional stance,” using a program and behavioral cues to direct its own behavior, without consciousness. The “hard problem”—that of self-awareness—has been circumvented, assumed without a good reason.

Graziano finishes by talking about semantic language, something that’s unique to humans and surely does require consciousness (I think! Maybe I’m wrong!). But that’s irrelevant, for the evolution of consciousness has already been assumed.

I admire Graziano for realizing that if consciousness, which is closely connected with our sense of agency and libertarian “free will”, evolved, there may be an adaptive explanation for it. He doesn’t consider that consciousness may be an epiphenomenon of neural complexity, which is possible.

I myself think consciousness and agency are indeed evolved traits, traits whose neuronal and evolutionary bases may elude our understanding for centuries. I take a purely evolutionary view rather than a neuroscientific view, for I’m not a neuroscientist. And using just evolution, one can think of several reasons why consciousness and agency might have been favored by selection. I won’t reiterate these here as I discuss them at the end of my “free will” lectures that you can find on the Internet.  And I always say that the problem of agency is unsolved. It still is, as it is for consciousness.

Graziano is making progress with the neuroscience, but the AST is still a long way from being a good theory of how consciousness evolved.

44 killed by bomb blasts in Syria, ISIS claims responsibility

July 27, 2016 • 9:15 am

This morning a largely Kurdish town in northern Syria has been attacked by two bombs, with ISIS claiming responsibility.  As the Guardian reports:

Media reports said a truck loaded with explosives had blown up on the western edge of the town of Qamishli, followed by an explosives-packed motorcycle a few minutes later in the same area. The blasts caused massive damage in the area and rescue teams were working to recover victims from under the rubble, the Sana news agency said.

Qamishli, near the Turkish border, is mainly controlled by Kurds but Syrian government forces are present and control the town’s airport.

. . . Isis said it had carried out the attack in Qamishli, describing it as a truck bombing that had struck a complex of Kurdish offices. The extremist group has carried out several bombings in Kurdish areas in Syria in the past.

The predominantly Kurdish, US-backed Syria Democratic Forces have been the main force fighting Isis in northern Syria, capturing significant territory from the extremists over the past two years.

Wednesday’s explosion came as US-backed Kurdish forces pressed ahead with their offensive to take the Isis-held town of Manbij, also in northern Syria but to the east of Qamishli.

We can’t stop this kind of terrorism in the West, and are even more impotent in the Middle East. I suppose, if you were a mendacious apologist like C. J. W*rl*m*n or Glenn Greenwald, you could blame this on U.S.’s backing the Kurds. But that won’t wash because this is the deliberate targeting of civilians, which can’t possibly be justified by any form of oppression or colonialism.

Florida, 1995: Walmart removes “Someday a woman will be president” tee shirts after shoppers complain

July 27, 2016 • 8:45 am

How far we’ve come! Last night Hillary Clinton accepted the Democratic Presidential nomination, becoming the first woman to run for President with a major party. Yet it wasn’t so long ago that parts of the U.S. considered this unthinkable. (It’s the same, of course, for blacks, and yet our President is black. But we won’t see an atheist President in our lifetimes).

Matthew Cobb pointed out a tw**t by Nick Kapur, professor of Professor of Japanese and East Asian History at Rutgers University. It’s unbelievable that nearly 20 years ago, a major retail chain removed an innocuous tee-shirt because the notion of a woman President was so offensive. It was, of course, in the South—in Florida and Arkansas.

The link is above, and I’ll reproduce the newspaper article after I show the offending garment:

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The article. What’s even worse than people complaining is Walmart capitulating to the complainers!

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Remember, this was 1995, only 21 years ago.  I wonder how all those offended Floridans feel now?

The next step, of course, is to make tee-shirts saying, “Someday an atheist will be President.” I have a feeling those would also be pulled from the shelves.

 

Jesus ‘n’ Mo ‘n’ humility

July 27, 2016 • 8:00 am

The “new” Jesus and Mo strip, “pride2,” is actually from 2008, since the artist is on vacation. It’s about a competition between faiths, but it could also be a metaphor about the competition between science and religion to understand the Universe.

“Humility” is, of course, a word much beloved by apologists—the supposed opposite of arrogant “scientism.” If only we scientists were more humble!!  But in fact that gets it precisely backwards. Scientific papers are loaded to the gunwales with caveats, doubts, and reservations, for we know we might be wrong, and it often behooves us—as it did Darwin—to point out the problems with our theories or results before others do. Remember that a chapter in Darwin’s On the Origin of Species is called “Difficulties On Theory,” in which Darwin raises possible objections to his ideas.

In contrast, theology rarely does any such thing. “Difficulties On Theory” for theology would be, for instance, “Why does God allow animals to suffer and little children to die?” If we had no answer for that type of question in science, like “Why are some fossil plant species, like Glossopteris, found in disconnected places like South America, India, southern Africa, Antarctica, and Australia?”, we’d have to start questioning our theory—or trying to find answers. (The answer we found: continental drift.) In contrast, theology, confronted with The Problem of Undeserved Evil, either makes up foolish answers or claims that the mind of God is unfathomable. There is no way to check its claims or arguments.

Now which discipline—science or theology—is humbler?

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