Stephen Hawking to give the 2015 Reith Lectures

September 7, 2015 • 3:15 pm

Professor Ceiling Cat is going home to rest, but before I do I want to call your attention, courtesy of reader Dermot C., to the fact that Stephen Hawking will be giving this year’s series of Reith Lectures for the BBC. This prestigious series has featured leading thinkers since 1948, when Bertrand Russell first spoke on “Authority and the Individual.” They’ve been a mix of science and non-science talks, but the lineup has been great. Here’s the series for this decade so far:

  • 2010 Martin Rees, Scientific Horizons
  • 2011 Aung San Suu Kyi and Baroness Manningham-Buller, Securing Freedom
  • 2012 Niall Ferguson The Rule of Law and its Enemies
  • 2013 Grayson Perry Playing to the Gallery
  • 2014 Atul Gawande The Future of Medicine

The 2015 lectures (it’s not clear yet if there will be more than one) will be on black holes, and Hawking will be recorded at the Royal Institution in London on November 12. (Presumably he’ll use his voice synthesizer).

And there’s more: at the link above you can actually email questions to Dr. Hawking (Askstephenhawking@bbc.co.uk), and he’ll answer a few of them.  You can also get tickets here. Though they’re not available yet, you can get put on a mailing list to find out when they are.

The BBC has archived all the Reith lectures in one place, so if you find some of the topics and speakers intriguing, go here to listen.

The correlation of high religiosity in America with everything bad

September 7, 2015 • 12:45 pm

I wasn’t aware of this collection of plots until Jeffrey Tayler highlighted it in today’s Salon piece, “Bill O’Reilly’s nonsense ‘nihilism’: now the Fox News host is even lying about God.” I won’t reprise Tayler’s essay, which deals with O’Reilly’s mistaken notion that without God, life has no meaning and “anything goes.” In view of the pervasive atheism in countries that are more moral and more healthy in societal terms than is the US (24% of Danes and 16% of Swedes believe in God, compared to about 90% of Americans), O’Reilly’s thesis simply won’t wash.

Frankly, I’m surprised that the “atheism = immorality” trope is still with us in light of all the palpable evidence against it, including the fact that American nonbelievers aren’t running amuck in the streets. Tayler disposes of it neatly, but I want to show you some graphs that his essay links to; figures on the characteristics of different US states that have been collated and presented by Josh Sager at The Progressive Cynic. His notes are indented; mine are flush left:

Human development (well being) by state:

The first map is color-coded based on a meta-measure of a society called the “human development index.” This index was created by the Social Science Research Council as a composite measure of the health, education and income levels within each state—the higher the number (or darker-colored the state on the map), the more developed the state.

As this map clearly shows, the most developed states are clustered in the northeast, around the great lakes, and on the west coast, while the least developed states in our country are almost exclusively in the Deep South and Appalachia.

american-human-development-index
Map created by the Measure of America project, using 2010 and 2011 data. See here.

Levels of poverty by state:

As you can see in the map [below], American poverty is concentrated in the south, from Arizona all the way to the East Coast; additionally, Michigan, West Virginia and Kentucky are high-poverty states.

american-living-in-poverty

Economic mobility:

As you can see in the map [below], income mobility and the ability to “work your way up” (or down) is tied to the state in which you are living. All but one (Utah) of the states which have higher than average upward income mobility rates lean progressive, while all of the states with low upward income mobility rates lean conservative.

economic-mobility

Education:

As is illustrated in the map [below], there are wide disparities in high school graduation rates, both on state and regional levels. For the most part, the northern United States has higher graduation rates, while the southern United States has lower graduation rates.

high-school-graduation-rate
Map created by the Rural Assistance Center, using Census data

Corporal punishment in schools:

In addition to having lower levels of educational achievement, right-leaning states in the south and Midwest account for virtually all instances of corporal punishment (hitting students) in the United States—this is simply because these states are the ones that have refused to ban the practices.

corporal-punishment-in-primary-schools
Map created by the New York Times, using data from the American Civil Liberties Union

Life expectancy: Healthy years of life beyond age 65:

As the map [below] illustrates, the right wing’s southern stronghold is composed of states that have, far and away, the worst life expectancies in the United States. This isn’t a purely a partisan issue, and involves a mixture of culture and bad policy.

The south is home to extreme poverty, a lack of accessible health care (ex. Texas leads the nation with 25% uninsurance), lax worker/environmental protections, and a culture that consumes massive amounts of fatty fried foods. These factors create a perfect storm of bad health that severely erodes the life expectancy of huge portions of the southern population.

life-expectancy-after-65
Map created by Real Clear Science, using 2012 data

The site gives higher rates of obesity, stroke, and heart disease in the South. I’ll skip those and just give you one plot of:

Overall accessibility and quality of health care:

Given the lower life expectancies and higher prevalence of chronic diseases in conservative states when compared to progressive state, it is unsurprising that there are similar disparities in the quality/accessibility of health care.

As you can see in the map [below], the health care systems of the Deep South and southwest are the worst in the nation, while those in the northeast and north-central regions are the best. This defies a purely partisan divide (ex. a lot of rural states suffer from low hospital accessibility), but the fact remains that the most conservative states in the nation tend to have the worst health care systems. This lack of health care is a particular problem for the south because, as previously described, it is the site of such an epidemic of chronic and life-threatening disorders.

health-system-performance

Finally, two other indices of social dysfuncationality:

Teen birth rate:

The map [below] illustrates teen birth rates for teenagers aged 15 to 19. The obvious pattern is that conservative southern states have far higher teen pregnancy rates, while northern states, particularly in the progressive northeast, have far lower teen pregnancy rates. [JAC: There’s also a similar map for teen pregnancies in mothers between 10 and 14!]

teen-birth-rates-total
Map Created by Zara Matheson, of the Martin Prosperity Institute

Incarceration rate: The U.S. has the highest incarceration rate of any First World country—higher even than many third world countries. It’s a national shame, and the inmates are largely black, and involved in drug offenses.

As the following map illustrates, conservative states—particularly in the south—have significantly higher rates of incarceration than progressive state. Many of these incarcerated Americans are in jail for non-violent crimes, including millions of Americans who are simply non-dealers in jail for drug possession.

incarceration

All of this illustrates the point that the states that are the most socially dysfuncational in the U.S. are those in the South. Those also happen to be the most politically conservative states, and we might wonder whether conservatism itself has caused this dysfunction. It’s possible. But what Tayler emphasized, and what I want to reprise here, is that these conservative and dysfunctional states also have the highest degree of religiosity, as shown in the following graph:

Religiosity:

The American right wing has long been allied with a coalition of Christian religious organizations. Originally, these organizations were mobilized in opposition to the school desegregation movement, but they shifted to focus on restricting abortion in the late 20th Century and, more recently, to fighting advances in gay rights.

Given this alliance, it makes sense that there would be a correlation between the religiosity of a region and the likelihood that they would vote conservative (most highly religious Americans are Christians).

As you can see with the [following] map, the right wing southern block is in thrall to religious adherence (mostly Evangelical and Baptist Christianity, with a Mormon outpost in Utah) to a degree not seen in any more progressive state. This isn’t to say that progressive states are secular, merely that their residents are, on average, less extreme in their religious adherence than residents of conservative states.

religiosity

Now these are all correlations, and there are a number of hypotheses to explain them. Those include the notion that conservative politics is the prime mover here, which leads to both social dysfunction and higher religiosity. That’s possible because conservatives don’t do much to help the dispossessed, and American conservatism is historically allied with high religiosity. Alternatively, there could be historical reasons for the high levels of crime, poverty, teenage births, and low levels of health and education in the South, and that could not only be at least a partial result of conservative governments (which repress minorities), but also a cause of higher religiosity. Or, higher religiosity could itself promote political conservativism. Finally, more conservative religions could promote more conservative politics. Surely several of these factors must obtain.

In fact, there’s substantial evidence that worsening social conditions, irrespective of politics, have a profound effect on religiosity. When income inequality fluctuates in the U.S., so does religiosity—in the same direction, but a year behind. That implies that when people feel worse off than they did before (and income inequality is a biggie in terms of how people feel about their social well-being), they become more religious. There is also  striking correlation among First World countries between social dysfunction and increased religiosity, in the same direction (more successful societies are less religious). Greg Paul’s paper on this correlation (see his figure 1) give the conclusion in its abstract, though he doesn’t partition out liberal versus conservative governments, and such a distinction might be hard to make in countries like Switzerland which are socially conservative but also liberal in many policies. Part of Paul’s abstract:

The historically unprecedented socioeconomic security that results from low levels of progressive government policies appear to suppress popular religiosity and creationist opinion, conservative religious ideology apparently contributes to societal dysfunction, and religious prosociality and charity are less effective at improving societal conditions than are secular government programs. The antagonistic relationship between a better socioeconomic conditions and intense popular faith may prevent the existence of nations that combine the two factors. The nonuniversality of strong religious devotion, and the ease with large populations abandon serious theism when conditions are sufficiently benign, refute hypotheses that religious belief and practice are the normal, deeply set human mental state, whether they are superficial or natural in nature. Instead popular religion is usually a superficial and flexible psychological mechanism for coping with the high levels of stress and anxiety produced by sufficiently dysfunctional social and especially economic environments. Popular nontheism is a similarly casual response to superior conditions.

The solution is easy: vote out the conservatives and loosen the grip of faith on America.

Readers’ wildlife photos

September 7, 2015 • 9:30 am

Most of these photos arrived in the last few days; I’ll soon get to the backlog, but wanted to put these up before (as I’m wont to do) I lose them!

Reader Chris Taylor in Oz sent three cool birds:

After your request for some more wildlife pictures, here are a few to demonstrate that not everything in Australia is dangerous!  The photos were taken by myself and my wife Jayne at our home near Canberra.

The first two are King Parrots,Alisterus scapularis, a male and a female, that were making free with tomatoes in our garden.  The male is the one with the red head and bill.  The female has the green head and pale bill.  They are quite common along the east coast of Australia, and the Great Dividing Range from the south to the Queensland, but are missing from parts of the tropical coast. The way the male in this picture looks makes me think he looks a bit contrite about being caught so red-handed.

King Parrot IMG_9130 #3
King Parrot IMG_9131 #1

The other photo is of a Flame Robin. Petroica phoenicea, sitting on the fence wire of our place.

Their distribution is the New South Wales and Victoria ranges and coastal areas, but mostly in the cooler parts around the snowy mountains.  We see them here near Canberra mostly in the winter months. The local ones migrate up to the high peaks in the spring, and come back again as the temperature drops.  Seeing the first ones arrive on our farm, we know that winter is really here.

Flame Robin IMG_7148

Will somebody please invite me to give some talks in Australia so I can see all these wonderful creatures?

Reader Randy Schenck sent some pelican pix:

Around 3:30 PM a large group of American white pelicans (Pelecanus erythrorhynchos) landed on the lake.  It is very warm and humid today in Southwest Iowa so it’s surprising to see these on the move.  I estimate this group to be around 75 strong, but they stay too bunched up to count.  Sometimes they stay overnight and there have been some that stayed a few days and got in a little fishing.  Most likely they just want to rest up and move on.  I am taking the photos from the house as I do not want to spook them. In the last photo you can see that many of them are going to sleep.
Pelicans 4 Sept. 2015 #2 009
Pelicans 4 Sept. 2015 #2 010
Pelicans 4 Sept. 2015 #2 013
Two birds from Stephen Barnard. Let’s see if you can tell which raptor is which, for we’ve had plenty of photos of these on this site:
Swainson’s Hawk (Buteo swainsoni) and Red-tailed Hawk (Buteo jamaicensis).
RT9A6744 (1)
RT9A6791

Buffalo Springfield Week: “Flying on the Ground is Wrong”

September 7, 2015 • 7:45 am

Buffalo Springfield, one of my favorite bands of all time, lasted just a few years (1966-1968) and produced but three albums. But their influence on music was profound—if for no other reason than that the band helped mold the later careers of both Stephen Stills and Neil Young. But the Springfield’s songs stand on their own: things of beauty—as novel at the time as many of the Beatles songs were in theirs.

Besides Stills and Young (both on vocals and guitar, with Stills also on keyboards and Young on harmonica), the band featured Dewey Martin on drums, Richey Furay on guitar and vocals, Jim Messina on guitar and, Bruce Palmer on bass. There were other itinerant members, but that was the heart of the group.

I’ve always said that if I could come back as someone else, it would be Steve Stills. He was enormously talented, and in all four ways possible for a musician: he was a great singer, with a gravelly blues voice, a fantastic songwriter, a super guitarist, and multitalented, able to play many instruments (piano, dobro, banjo, drums, acoustic and electric guitar, and so on). On the wonderful song “Do for the others,” from his first solo album, he plays every instrument and does all the vocals. His bandmates in the later group Manassas called him “Captain Manyhands” because of his multifarious instrumental talents.

And, of course, Stills was wickedly handsome. I wouldn’t have minded at all looking like this when I was in my twenties.

Stephen Stills-VS-ID40-2012-08-03 02 44 00

Here’s the rest of the group, with a very young Young. If you’re Canadian, you’ll know that Young, Palmer, and Martin were born in your land. It was truly an American/Canadian group.

911643

And here they are recently (they had a brief reunion five years ago, but it was sad: Stills’s voice is gone, and their music was a thing of the time):

buffalo-springfield

Many of the best songs recorded by the Springfield were written by Neil Young. Sadly, he didn’t sing most of the ballads: that was left to Richie Furay, who, it must be said, had a great voice—perhaps better than Young’s for songs like the “Flying on the ground is wrong”. (Neil was allowed to sing the “weird songs,” some of which I’ll feature this week.) Stills was responsible for the rockers like “Bluebird” and “Rock and Roll Woman.”

And, as I implied above, for the next ten days or so I’ll feature my favorite songs from Buffalo Springfield, a band that was never commercially successful, didn’t get the recognition it deserved, and is now largely forgotten. (Their only hit, which I won’t feature as it’s become a cliché, is “For what it’s worth.“)

Here’s one of Neil Young’s ballads, sung by Richie Furay. I’m not exactly sure what it’s about, save for a rocky romance between disparate personalities, but most Young songs are enigmatic and defy easy understanding (just wait until you hear “Broken Arrow”!). But this one, from their first album, “Buffalo Springfield” (1966), is lovely and haunting. No music like this was being made in 1966.

Monday: Hili dialogue (and Leon lagniappe)

September 7, 2015 • 6:34 am

Professor Ceiling Cat is under the weather today (and the external weather, such as it is, is HOT), so posting may be very light. I will do my best. In the mentime, Hili, confabbing with Cyrus, reveals that she is confused:

Hili: I have a cognitive dissonance.
Cyrus: What about?
Hili: I don’t know yet.

P1030330

In Polish:
Hili: Mam dysonans poznawczy.
Cyrus: W jakiej sprawie?
Hili: Jeszcze nie wiem.
And the Black Tabby is sensing, as animals do, the end of summer:

Leon: It smells like autumn.

10620648_1017960934891174_4798722506488992083_n

Far from the madding crowd

September 6, 2015 • 3:00 pm

by Grania

And now something to relax and soothe the brain after all the vexatious stuff.

If the ISS has done nothing else, its public outreach has provided humankind with a wealth of images.

Click the blue button to play

Dr. Kjell Norwood Lindgren is a NASA astronaut on the ISS since July this year. His team posed for this delightfully nerdy poster to commemorate their mission.