Good news for secularism: Part II. Belief in the supernatural declines in U.S., acceptance of evolution rises

December 19, 2013 • 9:06 am

This is a post about a poll, but it’s a very interesting poll, both because it shows the high level of superstition in the U.S. and also shows that that superstition—which includes religious belief—is steadily declining.  Do read the results if you have time.

According to a new Harris Poll (2250 U.S. adults surveyed this November), belief in the supernatural is declining on all fronts, and acceptance of evolution is rising.  I think this secularization is inevitable as we follow other First World Nations; and acceptance of evolution will be a byproduct this waning irrationality. That’s the good news.

The bad news (which we’ve had to live with for a while), is that acceptance of stuff like heaven, Satan, the virgin birth, and the divinity of Jesus far outstrip acceptance of evolution. But that will change!

Here are the salient results (direct quotations from the site are in quotes):

  • “[W]hile a strong majority (74%) of U.S. adults do believe in God, this belief is in decline when compared to previous years as just over four in five (82%) expressed a belief in God in 2005, 2007 and 2009.
  • “Also, while majorities also believe in miracles (72%, down from 79% in 2005), heaven (68%, down from 75%), that Jesus is God or the Son of God (68%, down from 72%), the resurrection of Jesus Christ (65%, down from 70%), the survival of the soul after death (64%, down from 69%), the devil, hell (both at 58%, down from 62%) and the Virgin birth (57%, down from 60%), these are all down from previous Harris Polls.”

The data are below. Note that the “don’t believe ins” are 12% (this figure varies between 5 and 15% among polls), but at the least these people can be described as “atheists.” And note that the “not sures” are 14%; these are the on-the-fencers who are most susceptible to reason.  It still astounds me that 58% of people believe in “the devil” (note: that’s not simply “estrangement from God,” as Sophisticated Theologians™ now construe “hell”)—11% higher than those who accept evolution.

Still, virtually all indices of superstition are declining, and the one declining most markedly is “belief in God”.

  • “Belief in [JAC note: bad characterization!] Darwin’s theory of evolution, however, while well below levels recorded for belief in God, miracles and heaven, is up in comparison to 2005 findings (47%, up from 42%).”

Note that it’s not clear in this precis whether they asked people about “Darwin’s theory of evolution,” or just “evolution.” Note, too, that most Americans who do accept evolution accept a God-guided form of evolution—theistic evolution (almost a 3/1 ratio).  Even if they accept “Darwin’s theory”, they might misconstrue it as “guided by God.” The table below show that belief in creationism has also declined, though 36% of Americans still believe it and 33% are not sure.

  • Belief in God (data not shown here; but you can see it at the Harris site) wanes in older groups, with Echo Boomers (whatever they are) showing less belief than Generation Xers, who in turn show less belief than “matures.” On the other hand, “matures” show less belief in paranormal phenomena like ghosts, witches, and UFOs. I wonder if this has to do with increasing skepticism, over one’s life, about everything but those beliefs that will give you an afterlife.
  • As for the political breakdown (data not shown here; see Harris site), Republicans express higher levels of belief in God and other Judeo-Christian myths in the table below, and lower acceptance of evolution. No surprise there.

Picture 1

General religiosity is declining and “not at all religious” status increasing, especially in the last 4 years. Could it be. . . . .those strident New Atheists?

As expected, certainty about God is higher in Republicans, those with less education, Southerners, and African Americans (historically a highly religious group). But of course they didn’t separate these factors, for there are correlations between education, ethnicity, political belief, and so on.

What about how certain you are of your belief? Certainty about God is dropping, too.

  • “Just under two in ten Americans (19%) describe themselves are ‘very’ religious, with an additional four in ten (40%) describing themselves as ‘somewhat’ religious (40%, down from 49% in 2007). Nearly one-fourth of Americans (23%) identify themselves as ‘not at all’ religious – a figure that has nearly doubled since 2007, when it was at 12%.”
  • “[T]wo-thirds of Americans (68%) indicate being either absolutely or somewhat certain that there is a God, while 54% specify being absolutely certain; these figures represent drops of 11 and 12 percentage points, respectively, from 2003 testing, where combined certainty was at 79% and absolute certainty was at 66%.Meanwhile, combined belief that there is no God (16%) and uncertainty as to whether or not there is a God (also 16%) are both up from 2003 findings (when these levels were 9% and 12%, respectively).Outside of specific religious samples, the groups most likely to be absolutely certain there is a God include blacks (70%), Republicans (65%), Matures (62%) and Baby Boomers (60%), Southerners (61%) and Midwesterners (58%), and those with a high school education or less (60%).”

Picture 3

Picture 254% certainty that there is a God is pretty scary to me, especially in the absence of evidence for God.  But the “doubters” comprise the last three rows, and they add up to 32%. That’s heartening!

As for how Americans see God’s control of Earth, here are the data:

  • “There also a continuing – and increasing – lack of consensus as to how much control, if any, God has over what happens on Earth.
    A 37% plurality of Americans (including 52% of Catholics) believes that God observes but does not control what happens on Earth – down considerably from 2003, when half of Americans (50%) expressed this belief. Just under three in ten (29%) Americans, including majorities of those who self-identify as very religious (60%) and/or born-again Christians (56%), believe that God controls what happens on Earth.”

Good news, but too late to impede any religiously motivated disbelief in global warming:

Picture 4Finally, two other results:

  • “Just under half of Americans believe that all or most of the Old Testament (49%) and the New Testament (48%) are the “Word of God,” representing declines of six percentage points each from 2008 findings.”

So much for Leon Wieseltier’s claim, in his debate with Steve Pinker, that “only a small minority of believers in any of the scriptural religions, for example, have ever taken scripture literally.” I don’t think that nearly half of all Americans (many of whom aren’t believers) is a “small minority of believers.” In fact, it’s most believers!

I find this next statistic hilarious.  How can you know what gender God is, unless you take the word of Scripture? Yet Sophisticated Theologians™ tell us repeatedly that god is not a “person,” but some kind of spirit outside the universe.  Why, then, do 39% of Americans think that God has divine but discernible genitalia, while another 10% think that God is “both male and female”? What sense does it make to conceive of the sex of a disembodied divinity?

  • “There continues to be no consensus as to whether God is a man or a woman. Nearly 4 in 10 Americans (39%) think He is male, while only 1% of U.S. adults believe She is female. However, notable minorities believe God is neither male nor female (31%) or both male and female (10%).Women, perhaps surprisingly, are more likely than men to believe that God is male (43% women, 34% men), while men are more likely to believe that God is neither male nor female (34% men, 28% women).”

Overall, I think this is terrific news, for the change has happened within the last decade. I can’t be sure what’s caused it, but I think this kind of secularization is inevitable not only for the reasons Pinker cites in The Better Angels of Our Nature (spread of Enlightenment values, etc.), but because we’re following the lead of Europe. We lag behind insofar as we’re held back by America’s social dysfunctionality (see post later today). In my view, the best way to promote evolution is to get rid of religion, and the best way to get rid of religion is to get rid of those social inequalities and holes in the social network that grow faith from the soil of insecurity.  And the best way to fix those problems is to reduce income inequality and enact government-sponsored medical care for all, along the lines of many European countries.

Good news for the holidays!

Good news for secularism. I. Meatballs make baby Jesus cry in Florida

December 19, 2013 • 5:55 am

If you can’t lick ’em, join ’em—or rather, slurp them. Tallahassee.com reports for the first of today’s Good News for Secularism posts (there will be several):

The most recently approved display in the Florida Capitol is one from the Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster.

A desk chair with a shredded cardboard representation of its deity – an eyed blob of noodles grasping two meatballs – with a sign reading: “A closed mouth catches no noodly appendages.” – ProvHerbs 3:27,” arrived Tuesday and now joins four other holiday displays in the marble rotunda.

Here it is, in all its glory!

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Amanda Richard, a Pastafarian in the Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster, places the group’s holiday display in the Florida Capitol. The attached sign says: “A closed mouth catches no noodly appendages. – ProvHerbs 3:27.” / Provided by Ben Wolf/ Department of Management Ser

Members, described as Pastafarians, believe, according to the church’s website that “The only dogma allowed in the Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster is the rejection of dogma,” and “Most of us do not believe a religion – Christianity, Islam, Pastafarianism – requires literal belief in order to provide spiritual enlightenment.”

Peter Wood, a Florida State University graduate student who applied to include the display, said the church’s members look toward “reason and rationalism in public discourse, a mutual understanding and having discussion on government, religion and viewpoints, without being hostile,” Wood said. “It’s OK for us to have different views in society and I think its important to realize there are more than one way to view things.”

Wood said the idea was not to mock other religions, instead to show “we can learn a lot from each other. Some ideas are deemed better than others and a lot of the time they’re equally humorous and equally valid,” he said.

The Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster has been associated with atheist and secular groups for the past decade or so, said Amanda Richard, who dropped of the display Tuesday afternoon.

“The point is to show that we are a part of a pluralistic society,” Richard said. “If you’re going to have inclusion of one religion in a public space, then it encourages all the others as well.”

deathandtaxes adds:

2013 was a banner year for Pastafarian acknowledgement, with a Texas man becoming the first to win the right to wear the traditional Pastafarian garb in his driver’s license photo—a pasta strainer on the head. The victory followed Pastafarians’ landmark victory in 2011 to wear pasta strainers on their heads in ID photos.

Other atheist displays in the capitol by a manger. I bet Christians are fuming, but it’s an object lesson in the First Amendment:

Picture 1h/t: Ant

Ken Miller, Joe Levine—and evolution—win in Texas

December 18, 2013 • 8:12 pm

If you’ve followed the Texas Textbook Kerfuffle (see my post here), you’ll know that the Texas School Board approved all of the high-school biology textbooks submitted to them except for one: Ken Miller and Joe Levine’s best-selling and evolution-heavy Biology, published by Pearson. That one was held up by a creationist reviewer who demanded all sorts of ludicrous changes, changes that were patiently but forcefully rebutted by the authors (see my earlier post for some examples).

Now, thank Ceiling Cat, the process is over, and Miller and Levine won. As this evening’s New York Times reports, the panel vetting this book overrode the creationist’s objection, and Miller and Levine will apparently be available in Texas without redaction:

. . . an unidentified volunteer reviewer complained to the Texas State Board of Education that it presents evolution as scientific fact rather than a theory, which conflicts with the creation story written in the Book of Genesis in the Bible.

The reviewer concluded that the text, which includes lessons on natural selection and the Earth’s cooling process, are errors that needed to be corrected by publisher Pearson Education, one of the nation’s largest producers of school textbooks and a unit of Pearson Plc.

The opinion caused the board to delay approval of the textbook and appoint a three-member panel of science experts to analyze the book’s lessons and report any factual mistakes.

“The professors didn’t recommend any changes so the book is now approved,” Texas Education Agency spokeswoman Debbie Ratcliffe said in an email. “Schools can purchase it this spring for use in the fall.”

Until the expert panel ruled, Pearson was not able to market its book as approved by the board to school districts in Texas.

The state’s more than 1,000 public school districts are permitted to order their own books and materials, but most follow the state-approved list.

Well, at least that battle appears to be won. The ID crowd will be fuming over at the Discovery Institute (after all, 6 of the 11 textbook reviewers were evolution denialists). Just this year they’ve lost at Ball State, they’ve lost at Amarillo College in Texas, and now they’ve lost big time in Texas, with not a single creationist criticism enforced on the book publishers.

When Walter Cronkite reported, after visiting Vietnam in 1968, that the war was unwinnable, Lyndon Johnson supposedly said, “If we’ve lost Cronkite, we’ve lost Middle America.”  Well, if the IDers have lost Texas, they’ve lost all of America.

h/t: Greg Mayer

Elizabeth Taylor’s cowboy boots auctioned off

December 18, 2013 • 1:16 pm

How many of you know that Elizabeth Taylor collected and wore cowboy boots? I knew it because when I visited Lee Miller’s shop in Austin several years ago (and I’m near the top of his waiting list by now!), I saw a pair he’d made for her, which were returned for some reason.

Christie’s finished auctioning off her estate yesterday (you can find the boots and everything else here), and by chance I found the boots that were sold. The prices were of course high; here’s one example:

Picture 1As a November article in Forbes about her clothing noted:

Here a series of rooms, formerly, I suppose, a guest suite, had become one vast dressing-room carpeted in her favourite lilac. All it lacked was the star on the door. In this eyrie, Taylor kept the clothes she had chosen, worn out in public and laid aside for another day. Her handbags were swathed in tissue paper or in specially made bags and stacked neatly by colour. So were her shoes and the more than 30 pairs of cowboy boots, of which more later. . .

The 1980s and early 1990s represented Taylor’s rock chick moment, and coincided with the Milan period in her wardrobe. Leather, jeans and cowboy boots looked good on the back of Malcolm Forbes’s motorbike (the publisher of Forbes magazine was a close friend).

Here’s another pair, the well-known “Killaz” from Liberty boots (an off-the-rack but good brand), with sterling silver skulls:

Picture 2

And here’s a small photo of Taylor on the back of Malcolm Forbes’s bike, wearing a brown pair. This is from another article in the magazine by Moira Forbes, Malcolm’s granddaughter:

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My verdict on her taste? Not bad, but with her dough she could have afforded better boots, and in fact should have had only custom boots.

From a 2009 interview in Stylelist:

StyleList: Are there any particular clothing items you think all women should own?

Taylor: Lingerie is so important, and I need jewelry more than clothes. I think every woman should own something that makes her feel sexy, as well as something that makes her feel happy. I love beautiful scarves… jackets…a great pair of blue jeans. Hats are always fun. My cowboy boots at the moment are bringing me a lot of pleasure. I think every woman has to decide for herself what truly turns her on.

Perhaps she developed a taste for boots while filming the movie Giant (1956), set largely in Texas. Here she is with director George Stevens (James Dean and Rock Hudson were also in the movie), wearing boots.  Stevens was given an Oscar for best director, and the movie, which is great, garnered eight other Academy Award nominations.

Picture 1

Here’s the infirm Taylor in her later years, wearing the Killaz (photo and gratuitous inscription from Perez Hilton’s site). Geez, were I a woman with her shoe size, I would gladly have anted up $3,360 to have boots that she wore:

fp_5092276_rij_liz_taylor_0__oPt

I was hoping she’d be an atheist, so I could further tout cowboy boots as The Official Atheist Footwear™ (after all, Pinkah wears them), but it turns out she converted to Judaism in 1957. Well, close enough.