A reasoning puzzle– *the* answer

April 17, 2018 • 8:33 am

by Greg Mayer

So, here’s the answer given by Manil Suri to the puzzle he posed in the New York Times on Sunday. First, restating the puzzle:

Four cards are laid in front of you, each of which, it is explained, has a letter on one side and a number on the other. The sides that you see read E, 2, 5 and F. Your task is to turn over only those cards that could decisively prove the truth or falsity of the following rule: “If there is an E on one side, the number on the other side must be a 5.” Which ones do you turn over?

And here is his answer:

Clearly, the E should be turned over, since if the other side is not a 5, the rule is untrue. And the only other card that should be flipped is the 2, since an E on the other side would again disprove the rule. Turning over the 5 or the F doesn’t help, since anything on the other side would be consistent with the rule — but not prove it to be true.

In the article, Suri points out that this is the Wason problem, which many readers recognized it as (I’d never heard of it). He goes on to point out that studying math improves a person’s ability to answer such problems correctly, ans argues that the Wason problem is an especially good way to teach critical thinking, and its use should be encouraged.

He notes that on average 10% of people get it right. I haven’t done a count, but many readers got it correct in the comments– far more than 10%, I would venture. One thing I learned from the responses is that many readers read the problem as referring to just these 4 cards, and that was useful in finding the answer. It never occurred to me– indeed, I think it would never have occurred to me– that the problem referred to just 4 cards. I assumed they were a random sample from a potentially infinite universe of cards. And that, to me, is where the real interest of the problem lies. Different people will read the same puzzle, and think the set up or the question are quite different. This matter of interpretation also occurred to many readers, and it is one to which I will return in a later post.

The Steve Pinker video I posted yesterday is the exact same problem, and Pinker gives Suri’s answer. My apologies to readers who were looking for my reveal yesterday, but Pinker was the reveal. But, as I mentioned above, Suri and Pinker’s answer was not the item of interest to me, and reading through the many comments yesterday made me realize my own interpretation of the problem was one of many, and so I have needed to think through my interpretive analysis further.

Apalachicola: Day 2

April 17, 2018 • 8:30 am

The lazy days of fishing, strolling by the Gulf, and eating continue. On Sunday we took Carolyn to the airport in Tallahassee, as she has to go back to her medical practice in Michigan (she’ll be moving down here next January). In the meantime, here’s the house where we’re staying. Carolyn and Doug have another house right across the street; this one appears to be used for guests:

Carolyn and Cap’n Doug on the front porch of the other house:

Two trees in our front yard: perhaps readers can recognize them, as I forgot the names. This one has bark that naturally peels off:

I believe this is a pine:

The trees and vegetation grow very quickly here because of the warm and humid climate. Here’s a tree that has absorbed the wire fence like an amoeba absorbs its prey:

Every day for breakfast we head to the Apalachicola Coffee & Chocolate Company for the ideal breakfast: coffee and pie. This is a fantastic chocolate and coconut pie with meringue:

On the way to Tallahassee, we took a route through a region that harbors the rare and endangered red-cockaded woodpecker (Leuconotopicus borealis). This woodpecker has hardly any red color; as the Cornell website notes, “Males have a tiny, nearly invisible red streak (“cockade”) at the upper border of the cheek. (Females are red-less.) Here’s a photo of a male from the Audubon site that shows the red streak pretty well.

The Cornell bird site notes the reason for the species’ rarity:

This endangered species is a habitat specialist that is strongly tied to old-growth pine forests that burn frequently, leaving the understory mostly clear of younger pines and hardwoods. They were once common in vast tracts of longleaf pine; now they also occur in loblolly, slash, and some other pine stands in the southeastern pine flatwoods

These old-growth forests are rare, and burning is now done by the Forest Service rather than by lightning strikes. We drove through one, and naturalists had marked with a white ring every tree that harbored a red-cockaded nest. There were quite a few white-ringed trees, but the area is small. Here’s one; can you spot the nest hole?

Note that the burn is clearly visible as the charring of the trunks, the absence of undergrowth, and the new, bright green fern fronds:

Here it is; and it looks as if it’s been lined with a piece of pipe or something. Maybe readers can explain.

We did see one red-cockaded woodpecker, but I couldn’t photograph it as it was simply a dark blob hopping on the side of a tree. Still, it’s on my life list, and I gather that few people who set out to see one of these birds actually succeed.

We then drove to the tiny town of Sumatra, Florida (population 148 in 2010), which has a restaurant well known for its fried grouper.

Like many towns in this area, Sumatra is religious. There are plenty of churches to be seen and plenty of evangelical signs. I’m not quite sure what this one means. I suppose you could construe it as meaning that we’re going to live again after death, but are now inhabiting a world that’s transitory and torturous.

The old post office in “town” (if you can call it that; it’s just a few buildings and houses). A very atmospheric old place—no doubt once the center of the town’s social life:

The Family Coastal Restaurant, an old-time restaurant with friendly local waitstaff:

There was a Sunday buffet, which I didn’t get but Doug and Carolyn did. John and I opted for the grouper dinner with fried green tomatoes and hush puppies, for grouper (not on the buffet) is the restaurant’s signature dish.

I changed the buffet sign’s dessert feature from “chocolate cake” to “chordate cake”. I’m a bad boy:

A grouper dinner, with delicious fried fillets of the fish, fried green tomatoes, and two crunchy hush puppies. It was great. I washed it down with sweet iced tea (“the table wine of the South”); John also had a bowl of oyster stew, which he couldn’t finish as it was the size of a huge soup tureen.

After lunch we combed the roadside to find the local carnivorous plants: pitcher plants and sundews. We found both, though we got wet. (These plants live in marshy, nutrient-poor soils, which is why they’ve evolved to catch insects.) I can’t remember the species of large pitcher plant, but perhaps a reader can oblige (to me it looks like the hooded pitcher plantSarracenia minor, which flowers in April and May; the purple flower is not the pitcher plant’s).

Photos of two flowering pitcher plants. Insects fall into the pitcher and are digested by enzymes in the pool of liquid in the pitcher’s bottom. To the right you can see a dead reddish-brown pitcher:

A very strange flower:

And a sundew. This species isn’t known to me but resembles the pink sundew, Drosera capillaris. The plants are very small—just two inches across. The leaves have sticky tentacles that entrap attracted insects, and then curl inward, dissolving the insect with enzymes and absorbing the digested goo into the plant.

Wakulla, Florida, a town that loves Jesus, but appears to have done so for only a decade:

In Wakulla, Doug made us stop at the local general store, 95% of which was devoted to fishing gear. I had to walk around for about an hour while these guys looked at fishing porn, as they’re doing in the photo below.

At the counter Doug had a chat with a guy buying a case of Dr. Pepper (a soft drink beloved in the South). They chatted briefly about the guy’s boat parked outside, which was a flat-fronted skiff different from Doug’s boat. Doug observed to Mr. Pepper that “you can never have enough boats.” The guy replied, “Yeah—the problem is convincing The Wife of that.”

A sign outside the store. For the life of me I can’t figure how they could spell one word right and the other word wrong. It’s possible that “swimware” doesn’t mean “bathing suits” but “all accoutrements for swimming,” in which case it might be correct, but I’ve never heard that word.

The whole road was dotted with “watch out for bear” signs, as American black bear (Ursus americanus) are fairly common around here.

Tomorrow: a birding trip on which I meet reader and videographer Tara Tanaka,whose videos have often graced this site.

Tuesday: Hili dialogue

April 17, 2018 • 6:30 am

by Grania

Good morning from a rainy, grey Ireland.

At least we are not the only ones experiencing sucky weather.

From Twitter:

A fly you probably haven’t seen before.

The critter in flight

Cats are cats, no matter the century.

Speaking of cats, Hili is discussing her most favorite subject of all time: food.

Marta: Do you like such sausages?
Hili: I suspect that I like them very much.

In Polish:

Marta: Lubisz takie kiełbaski?
Hili: Zdaje się, że bardzo.

Other cats are contemplating adventure and far horizons.

Leon: So? Are we going to fly?

Matthew found the eponymous scaredy-cat

And a cunning disguise.

JAC addendum: my friend Andrew Berry found this toilet seat in Hong Kong and sent me the photo with a note:

I’m surprised to find that in these parts the image you use to represent yourself online (ceiling cat) has made it on to toilet seats.  I confess to being impressed by the reach of your brand. But you might want to talk to your licensing people about whether bog seat decoration is the right direction for you as you lay the foundations of your globalization strategy.

Back to Grania:

Instead of world history, today I am going to do some vicarious eating. (Blame the weather).

There’s an eclectic bunch of Youtubers who cover cuisine that you may not be able to get in local neighborhood. Here are my favorites.

TabiEats hails from Japan and has a mixture of reviews and recipes of local Japanese food by Shinichi and his partner Satoshi. Shinichi grew up in Hawaii so he has an instinctive feel for what Westerners need to have explained to them and what they will find weird or strange.

Mark Wiens lives in Thailand and has traveled all over the world to sample local delicacies and street food.

The Food Ranger, a.k.a. Trevor James, is a Canadian living in Chengdu, Sichuan, China. He specializes in street food and has traveled the world in search of food that Westerners often never get to see or try. If you want to see food from remote places that are far off the beaten track, this one’s for you.

Canadian husband and wife team, Simon & Martina used to live in Korea but have now moved to Japan. Their channel covers more than just food, and includes (mostly) urban life, culture, customs from the view point of a foreigner living abroad.

Chris Broad is British and living in Japan. His channel Abroad in Japan is not only about food, and is from the perspective of a foreigner visiting Japan. He is frequently joined by his friends Natsuki and Ryotaro who accompany him on food adventures across the Japanese countryside.

Demand for Catholic exorcisms rise

April 16, 2018 • 2:52 pm

For those who think that the Catholic Church is becoming saner and more liberal, have a gander at this article from the Guardian (click on screenshot to read it). I’ve reported before on the frequency of exorcisms in the Church (see here for a number of posts), and on the unofficial Vatican exorcist, Gabriele Amorth, who died two years ago claiming to have exorcised 160,000 demons.

As is clear from the article, the Vatican has neither denied the existence of demons nor distanced itself from exorcism as a way to expel them. The report deals with Father Cesar Truqui of Mexico, and the many exorcisms he’s performed. While he admits that many of them don’t involve actual demons, but still provide some psychological relief for people (I’m willing to accept that), there are some true demonic possessions:

Despite what Hollywood would have us believe, Truqui says full-on demonic possession is very rare. The vast majority of people who see him have normal problems or mental illnesses, and he says he has sent people to seek psychiatric help. But he says 2-3% show signs of demonic “vexation”.

These people, he claims, are capable of feats of superhuman strength. Sometimes their voice changes and they growl or speak in tongues. He claims to have witnessed people with vexations who can suddenly speak in Hebrew or Aramaic even though they have never studied the languages. Some are obsessive and show knowledge of what Truqui calls “secret things”, like what a person who is not present is doing or wearing, and they are sometimes overwhelmed by feelings of discomfort when they are in places of worship.

“Most of the time, the people who see me are victims,” he says.

Truqui also spoke at length about Satan, who he described as a pragmatic foe. “The devil tempts the holy man in his holiness and the sinner in his sin,” he says.

And here are some other instances of the Hornéd One’s appearance as a malefactor:

In his decade working as a Roman Catholic exorcist, expelling demons from individuals who he believes are possessed or vexed by the devil, the Mexican priest says the oddest thing he witnessed was the sudden appearance of a “satanic nail” on a tabletop.

“There had been nothing on the table and then suddenly it was there, a rusted black nail. We all saw it. I wanted to keep it but then I thought, no, it’s like keeping a radioactive thing,” he said.

And these are clearly signs of Satan’s power:

[Truqui’s] subjects, he says, have problems that cannot be explained in normal medical terms. One, who he believes may have been cursed by her mother-in-law, feels an almost constant sensation of daggers entering her legs, knitting needles in her arms, and a clenched hand at her chin. Another was so obsessed by self-gratification that he masturbated 40 times a day. “Normally speaking it is humanly impossible … so that is a satanic thing,” says Truqui.

I’m not going to pronounce on the demonic implications of a high frequency of masturbation, but clearly the Church’s belief in demons and the ability of ritual to expel them is a delusion. Again, I’m willing to admit that a ritual may help people who are anxious or have mental health issues—what better placebo is there than a caring priest and your feeling that he really can cast out demons?—but I suspect that treatment by a health care professional, who doesn’t have to decide which aberrant behavior really does result from demons, is superior.

In the meantime, it’s been reported in several places, including USA Today and Newsweek, that this month the Vatican is holding a week-long conference in Rome to train priests how to expel demons. This is necessary not only because it takes skill to recognize and get rid of real demons, but also because private practitioners are horning in on the Vatican’s monopoly of de-demonizing. As the New York Post reports (my emphasis):

While many of the reported cases are actually related to psychological or spiritual problems, Palilla conceded, they must still be investigated.

But the church is concerned that many priests either haven’t learned or refuse to learn exorcism techniques.

“We priests, very often, do not know how to deal with the concrete cases presented to us. In the preparation of priesthood, we do not talk about these things,” Palilla said.

In France, the demand for exorcists has also soared, but independent contractors have taken up the jobs — charging $178 an hour — as the Catholic Church neglected training priests in the practice, The Economist reported.

Palilla warned against using an amateur exorcist because they “certainly make errors.”

Exorcism is recognized under the Catholic Church’s canon law and can only be performed with permission from within the church. The Vatican-backed International Association of Exorcists was founded in 1990 and has licensed some 200 members across the world.

Note that the Vatican officially backs the practice of exorcism and supports the International Association of Exorcists. It’s also well known that Pope Francis, like Antonin Scalia, believes that Satan isn’t just a metaphor but a real figure, which he says is “a personal being who assails us.”

That is the Church’s beloved and liberal Pope, who still believes in a literal Satan. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

h/t: Grania

My interview with Freethought Matters (FFRF)

April 16, 2018 • 10:30 am

My affection and respect for the Freedom From Religion Foundation (FFRF) is well known, and I was delighted to visit there last month and do a few “events”. Here’s one of them: a half-hour interview with Annie Laurie Gaylor and Dan Barker, the co-Presidents of FFRF,

As always, I can’t bear to watch my own videos, and I probably don’t say much that’s new to readers here. So be it. For the record, the video:

City of Manchester are the soccerball champs!

April 16, 2018 • 10:16 am

by A. Lone Chipmunk*

In the weird world of UK soccerball, the First League champions are the City of Manchester team – often known as Man City, because all the players are men. The City play in light blue shirts, except when the shirts are dark red or a kind of muddy grey-green. They are owned by a very rich man from the Middle of East who has bought victory by buying lots of great players and the greatest manager in the history of the great game, Pepito Guardola, playing great soccerball and bringing great joy to the hearts of UK soccerball fans up and down the great nation of United Kingdom.

As is their tradition, the City became soccerball champs without kicking the ball, as their great friends, the United Manchester – who play in red so you can tell the two teams apart – were beaten at home by a team known as the Baggies because of the long shorts they wear. Because of this win by the Baggies, United of Manchester were banned from winning the First League and joy was unconfined over the whole of Manchester and the East of Middle.

You can see how happy the captain of the City was in this video. Vince Company, a Belge-man, was at his wife’s family’s house watching the Baggies win, clustered round an iPhone. The whole family was very happy, especially the United of Manchester fan in the red shirt, whose name is Sharp:

And, as we know with Soccerball, it will all start again very very soon:

* As told to Bat Womb Tech.