by Greg Mayer
So, here’s the answer given by Manil Suri to the puzzle he posed in the New York Times on Sunday. First, restating the puzzle:
Four cards are laid in front of you, each of which, it is explained, has a letter on one side and a number on the other. The sides that you see read E, 2, 5 and F. Your task is to turn over only those cards that could decisively prove the truth or falsity of the following rule: “If there is an E on one side, the number on the other side must be a 5.” Which ones do you turn over?
And here is his answer:
Clearly, the E should be turned over, since if the other side is not a 5, the rule is untrue. And the only other card that should be flipped is the 2, since an E on the other side would again disprove the rule. Turning over the 5 or the F doesn’t help, since anything on the other side would be consistent with the rule — but not prove it to be true.
In the article, Suri points out that this is the Wason problem, which many readers recognized it as (I’d never heard of it). He goes on to point out that studying math improves a person’s ability to answer such problems correctly, ans argues that the Wason problem is an especially good way to teach critical thinking, and its use should be encouraged.
He notes that on average 10% of people get it right. I haven’t done a count, but many readers got it correct in the comments– far more than 10%, I would venture. One thing I learned from the responses is that many readers read the problem as referring to just these 4 cards, and that was useful in finding the answer. It never occurred to me– indeed, I think it would never have occurred to me– that the problem referred to just 4 cards. I assumed they were a random sample from a potentially infinite universe of cards. And that, to me, is where the real interest of the problem lies. Different people will read the same puzzle, and think the set up or the question are quite different. This matter of interpretation also occurred to many readers, and it is one to which I will return in a later post.
The Steve Pinker video I posted yesterday is the exact same problem, and Pinker gives Suri’s answer. My apologies to readers who were looking for my reveal yesterday, but Pinker was the reveal. But, as I mentioned above, Suri and Pinker’s answer was not the item of interest to me, and reading through the many comments yesterday made me realize my own interpretation of the problem was one of many, and so I have needed to think through my interpretive analysis further.