I did not expect this to happen so soon. Last night Israel, with the knowledge of the U.S. (but not necessarily with its material help) attacked Iranian bases and officials, and apparently did considerable damage to facilities, as well as killing nuclear scientists and the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. From the NYT:
Israel launched a stunning series of strikes on Friday morning against Iran’s nuclear program and killed three of the nation’s security chiefs, in a remarkable coup of intelligence and military force that immediately decapitated Tehran’s chain of command, prompted threats of severe retaliation and raised fears of a wider conflict.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel described the attacks as a last resort to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran, which Israel views as an existential threat. In addition to targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, Israel’s strikes killed top Iranian officials and nuclear scientists and hit Tehran’s long-range missile facilities and aerial defenses.
Israel has exchanged previous volleys of strikes with Iran and fought its proxy forces across the Middle East, but this was the first time it successfully hit Tehran’s nuclear facilities after years of preparation and threats. Though the extent of the damage at the nuclear sites was not yet clear, the scale of the strikes stunned Iranians and Israelis alike.
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said that Israel “should anticipate a harsh punishment.” Later on Friday morning, the Israeli military announced that Iranian forces had fired about 100 drones at Israel, as Mr. Netanyahu vowed the fighting would last “as many days as it takes.”
It was also not immediately clear whether the United States, Israel’s most important ally, had blessed the attack. For weeks, President Trump’s envoys have been holding talks with Iranian officials on a new agreement to curb Iran’s nuclear program. As recently as Thursday evening, Mr. Trump suggested that Israel should not yet attack Iran because such an assault would “blow it” for the nuclear negotiations.
Three other bits of news and a NYT map of where the attacks occurred:
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Iranians assassinated: The strikes dealt a heavy blow to Iran’s military leadership. Mohammad Bagheri, the commander in chief of the military and the second-highest commander after the supreme leader, was killed, according to the Israeli military and Iranian media, as well as other top security officials.
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Here’s who was killed:
Iranian Military Generals
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Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri, chief of staff of the armed forces and the second-highest commander after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
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Gen. Hossein Salami, commander in chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, Iran’s primary military force.
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Gen. Gholamali Rashid, deputy commander in chief of the armed forces.
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Nuclear Scientists
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Fereydoun Abbasi, the former head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran.
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Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, a theoretical physicist and president of the Islamic Azad University in Tehran.
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What was hit: Israel said Iran’s main nuclear enrichment facility at Natanz was among the targets. Rafael Grossi, the chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said that Iran had informed him that there was no increase in radiation levels at Natanz. Another nuclear site, at Isfahan, “has not been impacted,” Mr. Grossi said.
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How it happened: Israel attacked at least six military bases around the capital Tehran, residential homes at two highly secured complexes for military commanders and multiple residential buildings around Tehran, according to four senior Iranian officials.
The operation was stunning in planning and scope. Read this from the Times of Israel:
Israel spent years preparing for the operation against Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, a security official tells The Times of Israel, including building a drone base inside Iran and smuggling precision weapons systems and commandos into the country. [JAC: note how far Iran is from Israel. Those are some brave commandos.]
The effort hinged on tight joint planning between the IDF and the Mossad intelligence agency.
According to the official, Mossad agents set up a drone base on Iranian soil near Tehran. The drones were activated overnight, striking surface-to-surface missile launchers aimed at Israel.
In addition, vehicles carrying weapons systems were smuggled into Iran.
These systems took out Iran’s air defenses and gave Israeli planes air supremacy and freedom of action over Iran.
The third covert effort was Mossad commandos deploying precision missiles near anti-aircraft sites in central Iran.
The operations relied on “groundbreaking thinking, bold planning and surgical operation of advanced technologies, special forces and agents operating in the heart of Iran while totally evading the eyes of local intelligence,” says the official.
Iran launched 100 drones at Israel in response, but none of them made it (see below).
Two other pieces of good news for Israel: First, the Jordanian air force helped take down the Iranian drones sent to Israel in response.
Jordan’s air force intercepted missiles and drones entering its airspace Friday, according to its state news agency.
The interceptions took place because the missiles and drones were likely to fall within Jordanian territory, posing a threat to civilians, it said. Israel has been intercepting some of the 100 drones launched by Iran outside Israeli airspace, the Israeli military said.
And Jordan has warned Hezbollah not to try to retaliate against Israel:
Lebanon’s government informed the Hezbollah terror group that it would not tolerate the Iranian proxy joining in Tehran’s response against Israel following the attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, the Saudi news outlet al-Arabiya reports.
“The time when the organization bypassed the state in deciding to go to war is over,” the group was told, according to the report.
The report adds that Lebanese authorities also warned Hezbollah that it would bear responsibility for dragging the country into war.
Israel’s setting up a full drone base in Iran without the country detecting it (along with trucks bearing weapons, which would have to cross Iraq somehow] is an amazing feat, but that’s what Mossad specializes in (remember Beepergate?) The pronouncement by the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency that Iran was not adhering to its agreements probably prompted Israel’s attack, giving them a reason to take out nuclear facilities. And the semi-breakdown of the U.S. negotiations with Iran didn’t hurt, either.
It’s early days yet, and more retaliation from Iran can be expected, if not a full-scale war, but Israel saw Iranian nukes as an existential threat, which they were, and the bombs could be made within a few months (it would take longer to construct delivery missiles). My fondest hope, which is probably a pipe dream, is that the Iranian people would rise up and throw out the theocracy that they despise and set up some kind of democracy, but the military still has the power.






