I did not expect this to happen so soon. Last night Israel, with the knowledge of the U.S. (but not necessarily with its material help) attacked Iranian bases and officials, and apparently did considerable damage to facilities, as well as killing nuclear scientists and the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. From the NYT:
Israel launched a stunning series of strikes on Friday morning against Iran’s nuclear program and killed three of the nation’s security chiefs, in a remarkable coup of intelligence and military force that immediately decapitated Tehran’s chain of command, prompted threats of severe retaliation and raised fears of a wider conflict.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel described the attacks as a last resort to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran, which Israel views as an existential threat. In addition to targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, Israel’s strikes killed top Iranian officials and nuclear scientists and hit Tehran’s long-range missile facilities and aerial defenses.
Israel has exchanged previous volleys of strikes with Iran and fought its proxy forces across the Middle East, but this was the first time it successfully hit Tehran’s nuclear facilities after years of preparation and threats. Though the extent of the damage at the nuclear sites was not yet clear, the scale of the strikes stunned Iranians and Israelis alike.
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said that Israel “should anticipate a harsh punishment.” Later on Friday morning, the Israeli military announced that Iranian forces had fired about 100 drones at Israel, as Mr. Netanyahu vowed the fighting would last “as many days as it takes.”
It was also not immediately clear whether the United States, Israel’s most important ally, had blessed the attack. For weeks, President Trump’s envoys have been holding talks with Iranian officials on a new agreement to curb Iran’s nuclear program. As recently as Thursday evening, Mr. Trump suggested that Israel should not yet attack Iran because such an assault would “blow it” for the nuclear negotiations.
Three other bits of news and a NYT map of where the attacks occurred:
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Iranians assassinated: The strikes dealt a heavy blow to Iran’s military leadership. Mohammad Bagheri, the commander in chief of the military and the second-highest commander after the supreme leader, was killed, according to the Israeli military and Iranian media, as well as other top security officials.
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Here’s who was killed:
Iranian Military Generals
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Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri, chief of staff of the armed forces and the second-highest commander after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
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Gen. Hossein Salami, commander in chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, Iran’s primary military force.
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Gen. Gholamali Rashid, deputy commander in chief of the armed forces.
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Nuclear Scientists
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Fereydoun Abbasi, the former head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran.
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Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, a theoretical physicist and president of the Islamic Azad University in Tehran.
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What was hit: Israel said Iran’s main nuclear enrichment facility at Natanz was among the targets. Rafael Grossi, the chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said that Iran had informed him that there was no increase in radiation levels at Natanz. Another nuclear site, at Isfahan, “has not been impacted,” Mr. Grossi said.
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How it happened: Israel attacked at least six military bases around the capital Tehran, residential homes at two highly secured complexes for military commanders and multiple residential buildings around Tehran, according to four senior Iranian officials.
The operation was stunning in planning and scope. Read this from the Times of Israel:
Israel spent years preparing for the operation against Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, a security official tells The Times of Israel, including building a drone base inside Iran and smuggling precision weapons systems and commandos into the country. [JAC: note how far Iran is from Israel. Those are some brave commandos.]
The effort hinged on tight joint planning between the IDF and the Mossad intelligence agency.
According to the official, Mossad agents set up a drone base on Iranian soil near Tehran. The drones were activated overnight, striking surface-to-surface missile launchers aimed at Israel.
In addition, vehicles carrying weapons systems were smuggled into Iran.
These systems took out Iran’s air defenses and gave Israeli planes air supremacy and freedom of action over Iran.
The third covert effort was Mossad commandos deploying precision missiles near anti-aircraft sites in central Iran.
The operations relied on “groundbreaking thinking, bold planning and surgical operation of advanced technologies, special forces and agents operating in the heart of Iran while totally evading the eyes of local intelligence,” says the official.
Iran launched 100 drones at Israel in response, but none of them made it (see below).
Two other pieces of good news for Israel: First, the Jordanian air force helped take down the Iranian drones sent to Israel in response.
Jordan’s air force intercepted missiles and drones entering its airspace Friday, according to its state news agency.
The interceptions took place because the missiles and drones were likely to fall within Jordanian territory, posing a threat to civilians, it said. Israel has been intercepting some of the 100 drones launched by Iran outside Israeli airspace, the Israeli military said.
And Jordan has warned Hezbollah not to try to retaliate against Israel:
Lebanon’s government informed the Hezbollah terror group that it would not tolerate the Iranian proxy joining in Tehran’s response against Israel following the attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, the Saudi news outlet al-Arabiya reports.
“The time when the organization bypassed the state in deciding to go to war is over,” the group was told, according to the report.
The report adds that Lebanese authorities also warned Hezbollah that it would bear responsibility for dragging the country into war.
Israel’s setting up a full drone base in Iran without the country detecting it (along with trucks bearing weapons, which would have to cross Iraq somehow] is an amazing feat, but that’s what Mossad specializes in (remember Beepergate?) The pronouncement by the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency that Iran was not adhering to its agreements probably prompted Israel’s attack, giving them a reason to take out nuclear facilities. And the semi-breakdown of the U.S. negotiations with Iran didn’t hurt, either.
It’s early days yet, and more retaliation from Iran can be expected, if not a full-scale war, but Israel saw Iranian nukes as an existential threat, which they were, and the bombs could be made within a few months (it would take longer to construct delivery missiles). My fondest hope, which is probably a pipe dream, is that the Iranian people would rise up and throw out the theocracy that they despise and set up some kind of democracy, but the military still has the power.
Thanks for the detailed report. Been following this on X most of night. I think Israel picked a good time to get in there and do what they knew they had to do sooner or later. They are master planners.
Thank you for this very complete early report, Jerry. I was awakened earlier this morning by an urgent Claire Berlinski post on the strike. She too was surprised and pre-empted her planned post of the morning but obviously had few details at the time. Good to see Jordan helping out. I guess this will stress test the Abraham Accords and see where US comes down.
I am always amazed by Israel’s capability to hit individual targets. Their human intelligence must be really good.
No idea what is next. But… wow. There is now a very difficult problem about flying over intervening airspace, and I don’t know how Israel will do it.
I doubt there’s much of a flyover issue. (1) I’m pretty sure Israel has access to all the US bases in and around the Gulf, e.g. in Kuwait, that it might want. (2) Saudi Arabia hates (and fears) Iran just as much as Israel does, so might allow covert fly over, though it would never admit it. Similar with Jordan, which also actively helps Israel shoot down Iran’s retaliatory missiles and drones.
The nice thing about stealthy aircraft is that a country can plausibly claim its air defence radars detected no unusual activity that night, so the Zionist terrorist planes certainly didn’t fly over us!
Speaking of (non-)detection, all IDF people home safe? No word on losses?
Yes, thank you for the detailed report. I saw the initial news last night about the strikes but it was too soon for any concrete info. I’m stunned at Israel’s ability to get people and facilities into Iran like that. It’s also a very good sign that both Jordan and Lebanon are (sort of) helping Israel’s side for a change. Let’s hope this ends soon, for all our sake’s. (Of course I’m selfishly invested as I’m flying through Doha in a couple month’s time…)
According to the BBC:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyg0yywr4no
Oops!
Edited to add link.
It was hard to sleep last night, knowing that this was happening. Iran is 75 times the area of Israel, has ten times the population, and Tehran is almost 1000 miles from Tel Aviv.
According to some sources, some Israeli defense experts thought that Iran was within days of having an atomic bomb, not weeks. Israel had to act at some point. If the Israeli War Cabinet was convinced that Iran was only days from having a bomb, now was the time to act. Waiting until President Trump declared that negotiations with Iran have failed (he was hinting at this the past week, but was pressing on nonetheless) would have limited Israel’s element of surprise.
The United States is so large and powerful that it’s hard for us in the States to be fearful that a war could destroy our country and way of life. But every war in Israel is existential, and a single nuclear weapon aimed at Israel would mean another Holocaust. That is what this Israeli action is intended to prevent.
Mixed feelings: pride in Israel for once again doing what is right and when needed. But worry about what comes next.
I mentioned this a little while ago but, once again, Dylan’s famous song seems appropriate for the moment:
“Well, the neighborhood bully, he’s just one man
His enemies say he’s on their land
They got him outnumbered about a million to one
He got no place to escape to, no place to run
He’s the neighborhood bully
The neighborhood bully just lives to survive
He’s criticized and condemned for being alive
He’s not supposed to fight back, he’s supposed to have thick skin
He’s supposed to lay down and die when his door is kicked in
He’s the neighborhood bully”
(Bob Dylan, 1983)
To me, Tr*ump en route to Camp David last Sunday arched my eyebrow at least as much as his tripping on the steps of AF1. Rubio was with him too. I think this is what that was all about. Plus, I read that Israel said that they had informed Washington on Monday.
I imagine a lot of women in Iran are cheering, too.
Yes, Norman. You are right. Iran must not get nuclear weapons. Anything Israel does to prevent that is justified.
Looks like the other Arab nations are calling for restraint and not defending Iran.
Russia and China aren’t jumping into this either.
I wonder what happens to Hamas now. They are on their own.
The U.S. will be replenishing Israel’s weapons I’m sure but not jumping in but a real threat to Iran.
This is all good news on a job well done.
Note that Iran is not an Arab nation.
FWIW, since most of you know I caution against speculation on aviation accidents until all data are recovered and analyzed, I think that Captain Steeeve, a senior Boeing 777 pilot who comments on you tube has a decent 17 minute video up that softly speculates on three possibilities and talks about the general take-off procedures for the Boeing 787 Dreamliner accident aircraft versus the limited video observations associated with the crash. Should be at url
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7EZkungFEE
Capt Steeeve is not my favorite, but here seems to provide some useful what I would call soft speculation. I believe that the Dreamliner has a very modern flight data recording system that should record flight data and cockpit conversations right up to impact. So investigators should be able to get to the root of things eventually.
Globe and Mail today printed an article “Tactics Without Strategy” pointing out that it was a brilliantly executed attack without a clear political goal or end game in sight.
Witold Jurasz writing for onet.pl similarly recalled how Bonaparte ordered a member of French nobility and a potential king murdered. Talleyrand called it “worse than a crime: a MISTAKE!”
These two remind me of a common saying that some countries win many battles but lose wars.
The trouble is Israel may lose out in the end because Iran will be that much less motivated to sign a deal that will stall its nuclear programme. It may be delayed for years, but it is pretty much guaranteed it will continue. I hope I am proven wrong on this one.
The claim that Iran’s nukes are an existential threat to Israel is of course true, but still nine (as claimed) Hiroshima-style weapons are not a match for Israel’s 100-400 arsenal according to estimates. So the risk that Iran will use them in the immediate future is very remote.
Sadly, it looks more like Netanyahu’s attempt to appease the right wing and keep his coalition government going than a well thought-out strategic move.
History will tell.
Well, that was certainly instant analysis. Way to go, Mope & Wail.
At the attached link, Bari Weiss asks Naftali Bennett, former Israeli Prime Minister and opponent of Benjamin Netanyahu, what the end game is for the Israeli attack. His answer was simple: to save his country.
https://youtu.be/80ysRuuALKU?si=f8jTMcHtTJfZyk1k
A 400-to-10 force advantage won’t deter a suicide mission, especially a holy one.
And, lest one get complacent, even 60% U-235 more than suffices for “dirty bombs” to make a city completely uninhabitable for a very long time, without needing any precision engineering.
Iranian regime may be autocratic but it is not so far suicidal. They are unlikely to initiate such an attack (for now) because they know they wouldn’t have a country to govern after the fallout settles. As for dirty bombs, uranium is an extremely poor choice for these because of long half-life and consequently very low doses to any potential victims. Annoying, yes. Deadly, no. Leslie, you could do better with your critique. Who’s wailing?
Peace. It’s just an old nickname for Canada’s self-styled national newspaper.
I stand corrected re U-235. A “better” material would be nuclear waste, which AIUI is up to an order of magnitude more radioactive than uranium metal. And presumably some chemical processing of the raw waste could fairly readily increase the concentration of highly radioactive nuclides. IAEA inspections hopefully look for evidence of such processing.
If Israel did indeed knock out air defenses, and can keep them mostly out, then Iran may be forced to negotiate a peace. Otherwise Israel will demolish Iran’s infrastructure bit by bit, and Iran’s people will at some point rebel.
Was the Revolutionary Guards guy the head of the division that blinds women for not wearing a head scarf?