The two-state delusion

As I reported recently, UK foreign secretary Ed Miliband (under Labour) announced that a new government’s policy would (if passed) include imposing sanctions on companies in the West Bank, but only Jewish ones.  I also quoted Miliband at length to show that he deemed this policy essential to effect the one thing he and Labour thought would end the enmity between Israel and Palestine: the vaunted TWO-STATE SOLUTION. A couple of quotes from the Secretary himself.

So Madame Deputy Speaker, there is a deeply painful contrast between our professed commitment to a two state solution, and the reality on the ground in Gaza and the West Bank.

. . . We should always be proud that it was a Labour government that took the historic step of recognising the State of Palestine.

What we seek today is to salvage the only course for peace and security for Israelis and Palestinians – the two state solution.

. . .Ethnic cleansing is defined by the UN as ‘a purposeful policy designed by one ethnic or religious group to remove by violent and terror-inspiring means the civilian population of another ethnic or religious group from certain geographic areas.’

The British government agrees that there is ethnic cleansing of Palestinians in areas of the West Bank – perpetrated by settler terrorists.

To advance the two state solution, we also need viable and effective Palestinian governance.

So I urge the Palestinian Authority to accelerate reform and I urge Israel to lift its withholding of revenues that is financially crippling the provision of essential services in the West Bank.

The set of measures I have announced represents a clear message to the government of Israel, to the Palestinians in the Occupied Territories, and to the world that we will not acquiesce in the destruction of the two state solution.

Now anybody who says something like this is a complete chowderhead on several fronts. First, as we see later in this post, neither Israel nor Palestine wants a two-state solution. Palestine has rejected one repeatedly: at least a half-dozen times, and often on favorable terms for Palestine That’s because the powers that be in Palestine want a one state solution: a state that would ostensibly harbor Jews and Palestinians, which is like wanting a state that would harbor both dynamite and matches. Such a state would eventually lead to the expulsion or mass death of Jews, which is what most Palestinians want.

Nor do Jews want such a state. They used to, when several times they offered one to Palestine, but after October 7 they realized that having a state run by promoters of terrorism right next to Israel, whether those terrorists be Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, or the Palestinian Authority, would simply guarantee more attacks on Israel.  In fact Gaza was, in effect, a Palestinian state, and how well did that work out?

Finally, the “viable and effective Palestinian governance” that Miliband calls for simply does not exist. People have bruited about the Palestinian Authority, but anybody who knows anything about the PA knows that that organization is also a hotbed of terrorism that pays off Palestinians for killing Jews, and is also rejected by Palestinians in both the West Bank and Gaza in favor of the even more terroristic Hamas.

And so a new Pew Poll, as reported in the Times of Israel, shows that neither side thinks that a two-state solution is the solution to coexistence of Palestinians and Israelis. Ed Miliband, and other European countries who will sanction Israel in hopes of effecting that solution, are speaking from their nether orifices.

Click below to read the ToI article:

Quotes:

A large majority of Palestinians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem and a majority of Israelis say they do not believe Israel and an independent Palestinian state can coexist peacefully, according to a new Pew survey.

Just 17% of Israelis said they believed a path to peaceful coexistence could be found, compared with 56% who said it could not. Among Palestinians surveyed in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, 21% said coexistence was possible, while 68% said it was not.

The Israeli result is a low point in more than a decade of Pew polling on the issue. The share saying coexistence was possible had already fallen to its lowest level in 2025 and remained roughly unchanged in 2026.

The year 2026 was the first time that more than half of Israeli respondents explicitly said it was impossible.

Among Jewish Israelis, 16% said a two-state solution was possible, while 64% said it was not. Among Arab Israelis, 46% either said they did not know or declined to answer, while 23% said peaceful coexistence was possible and 26% said it was not.

Pew surveyed 1,001 people in Israel and 1,038 Palestinians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Israeli interviews were conducted from April 5 to May 6, while Palestinian interviews took place from March 30 to April 28, in Hebrew and Arabic.

The fieldwork coincided with the Iran war, beginning while fighting was still underway and continuing after an initial ceasefire was declared on April 7. Gaza was not included because Pew said it was unable to conduct fieldwork there.

First, the data. Note that Israeli Arabs don’t really want to answer, perhaps because they fear being demonized if they think peaceful coexistence is possible. Overall, Palestinian adults in the West Bank and East Jerusalem are as pessimistic as are Israeli adults:

Now some wishful thinking:

Why do some Israelis and Palestinians think Israel and an independent Palestinian state can coexist peacefully?

Small shares of the populations in both Israel (17%) and the West Bank and East Jerusalem (21%) say a way can be found for Israel and an independent Palestinian state to coexist peacefully.

When asked why they think so, some Israelis and Palestinians offer similar reasons: Both see peace between two states as the inevitable conclusion to their conflict and acknowledge that a diplomatic peace process would bring about clearly-defined borders and independence from each other.

But there are also some differences in their open-ended responses. Palestinians tend to emphasize the benefits of peace, such as economic prosperity for both peoples, while Israelis explain that peace is possible under certain conditions, like increased trust or political will.

Among those who say peaceful coexistence is possible, an interest in peace is a common sentiment. Some say that they personally want peace or – in the words of one respondent – that “both sides want to live in peace.” And others see peace as an imperative, saying, “we must make an effort.”

In addition, some point to interpersonal relationships between the two sides as evidence that they can coexist. “Just as Arabs and Jews live in harmony in Jaffa, so it is possible between countries,” said one Jewish Israeli woman. And a Palestinian woman expressed similar reasoning, saying, “There are friendships between Arabs and Jews, and peace can be achieved.”

“We need to find the path to peace for the sake of our children and their children.”
Jewish man, 29, Israel

“We tried coexistence before and it was successful.”
Man, 27, West Bank/East Jerusalem

I wonder when that was.

“We complement each other in work, trade and security, so that we may live together.”
Woman, 18, West Bank/East Jerusalem

In the West Bank and East Jerusalem, some recalled periods of trust and cooperation in the past. “We used to coexist and could accept each other,” said one Palestinian man. “Previously, coexistence and peace existed, and peaceful coexistence is possible now, just as it was before,” said another.

Many Palestinians stress the economic benefits peace would bring. Peace is “the way to improve the economic situation of the Palestinians,” one Palestinian woman said. Others mention the economic interdependence between the two peoples: “We work for them, they need Palestinian labor,” said one Palestinian man, adding, “We share the same economy and the same currency that Israel uses.”

Palestinians are more likely than Israelis to explain, in their own words, that peace between two states can be achieved because they see it as a desirable outcome. This is the most common theme in the open-ended responses from people in the West Bank and East Jerusalem who say a two-state solution is possible.

This strikes me as a sentiment along the lines of “If wishes were horses, even beggars could ride.” Just because peace is desirable for some people doesn’t mean that it will come, simply because (in my view, of course), peace was never desirable for most Palestinians, and while it was desirable for many Israelis as well as for me, that desire vaporized on October 7.  So long as Hamas and the Palestinian Authority are in control of the Arabs in Gaza and the West Bank, there will never be peace, as both of those organizations are dedicated to extirpating Israel.  And there is as of yet no viable alternative. UNRWA, for example, has helped teach a generation of Palestinian children to hate Jews and love martyrdom. It is not until those children grow up and their own children are brought up under a different system—not something that seems likely—will there be hope for peace.

The figure below shows the waning confidence in a two-state solution over the past thirteen years. It’s fallen by about two-thirds among Israelis of all stripes!:

Finally, there’s a lot about why Israelis and Palestinians think they cannot coexist. Here are some of many reasons:

Why do most Israelis and Palestinians think peaceful coexistence is not possible?

Most Israelis and Palestinians say a two-state solution is not a viable option. Over half of the people surveyed in Israel (56%) and roughly seven-in-ten in the West Bank and East Jerusalem (68%) cannot see a way for Israel and an independent Palestinian state to coexist peacefully.

When asked to explain their answer, Israelis and Palestinians say coexistence is not possible because their differences are too great to overcome. People on both sides agree that they are enemies with competing belief systems who are fighting over the same land, and some also mention the violence between them, which has culminated in the most recent war. Small shares in both places accuse the other side of rejecting peace.

But there are points of disagreement about why they cannot coexist, in their own words. While Israelis explain that an independent Palestinian state would pose a threat to Israel, many Palestinians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem say coexistence is not an option while they live under Israeli control.

One of the top reasons that Israelis and Palestinians alike say peaceful coexistence is not possible is disagreement over the land.

Some think there is not enough land to split. For example, one Palestinian woman said that “Palestine cannot be divided into two states.” Another said that “there cannot be two peoples when there is no room for two peoples.” Israelis express similar sentiments – saying, for example, that “Israel does not have enough territory to divide into two states” or that “there is no land to establish a Palestinian state.”

In both places, there are people who believe they are the only rightful owners of the land. One Jewish Israeli woman said, “This is our land alone,” and another stated that “the Holy Land belongs only to the Jewish people and was given to them by God.” Similarly, some Palestinians say Israel “stole our land” and that “the homeland belongs to the Palestinians.”

They didn’t survey Gazans for obvious reasons, and the “under Israeli control” reason wouldn’t have as much force before October 7, 2023.  I have every reason to think that had Hamas (much less the PA) not controlled Gaza (they were voted in by its residents), the territory would now be a seaside tourist destination. Yes, Israel did maintain control over air, land, and sea crossings into and out of Gaza, but so did Egypt, and nobody blames that country for an “occupation” (Egypt also refused to let Palestinian refugees settle in their land after the October 7 war began). Those restrictions were, of course, largely due to terrorism, and yet Gazans were largely free to work in Israel as well as to use its transportation facilities to leave the area. And with few exceptions they could get treatment in Israeli hospitals.  It’s undeniable that Palestinian terrorism is the main reason that Israel has put restrictions on Gaza and the West Bank, and why Israeli enthusiasm for the West Bank has cooled.