The exaggerated or false assertions of extreme gender activists are starting to wane—thanks to scientific research. The fact that the article below appeared in a liberal magazine, The Atlantic, is a sign that these activists can no longer bully the public into accepting bogus arguments and claims (e.g., “would you rather have a dead son or a live daughter?”), for research shows otherwise. The article below concentrates on two especially distressing antiscientific phenomena:
1.) The persistence of “zombie” facts: false assertions that nevertheless hang on because they suit a liberal, virtue-signaling ideology. One of them is the supposed increase in suicide among youth who aren’t given “affirmative care” for gender dysphoria.
2.) The reluctance of organizations like WPATH and the U.S. government to publish research that goes against the accepted ideology.
Both of these can lead not only to public ignorance, but also to real harm of children and adolescents pushed into transitioning genders without complete information (or with false information). I am not saying, of course, that changing genders, or having surgery, or taking hormones to do so, should never be permitted. In many cases those allowed to transition report that they are happier for having done so. (One must nevertheless be wary of such self-reporting after the fact.) But while I don’t believe in bans on medically changing gender, I do object to affirmative care and to unscientific assertions, which can lead young people to make poorly informed decisions. (Older people, say over 21, should have the ability to weigh the facts and make their own decisions.)
The fact that MSM like the New York Times and The Atlantic can now get away with publishing articles like these is a sign that the times are a-changin’. And I’m glad that they are changing because the change is coming from science.
The Atlantic article below was published here, but unless you subscribe it will be paywalled. However, you can find it archived here, and clicking the headline below will take you to the archived version.
The article begins with an anecdote about the ACLU attorney and deputy director for transgender justice Chase Strangio, whom we’ve met before. Strangio, a trans-identified woman, is the lawyer who advocated the banning of Abigail Shrier’s book on social causes of gender dysphoria Irreversible Damage: The Transgender Craze Seducing Our Daughters. Few reasonable people now doubt that Shrier was right: some transitions are promoted by social pressure.
Strangio later removed these tweets, which incorrectly characterize Shrier’s book. And the ACLU was arguing for banning books? Oy!
Strangio argued, and lost, a case in the Supreme Court, one of the reasons being he adduced a false “zombie fact” (all quotes below are from Lewis’s Atlantic article, and are indented):
“We often ask parents, ‘Would you rather have a dead son than a live daughter?’” Johanna Olson-Kennedy of Children’s Hospital Los Angeles once explained to ABC News. Variations on the phrase crop up in innumerable media articles and public statements by influencers, activists, and LGBTQ groups. The same idea—that the choice is transition or death—appeared in the arguments made by Elizabeth Prelogar, the Biden administration’s solicitor general, before the Supreme Court last year. Tennessee’s law prohibiting the use of puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones to treat minors with gender dysphoria would, she said, “increase the risk of suicide.”
But there is a huge problem with this emotive formulation: It isn’t true. When Justice Samuel Alito challenged the ACLU lawyer Chase Strangio on such claims during oral arguments, Strangio made a startling admission. He conceded that there is no evidence to support the idea that medical transition reduces adolescent suicide rates.
At first, Strangio dodged the question, saying that research shows that blockers and hormones reduce “depression, anxiety, and suicidality”—that is, suicidal thoughts. (Even that is debatable, according to reviews of the research literature.) But when Alito referenced a systematic review conducted for the Cass report in England, Strangio conceded the point. “There is no evidence in some—in the studies that this treatment reduces completed suicide,” he said. “And the reason for that is completed suicide, thankfully and admittedly, is rare, and we’re talking about a very small population of individuals with studies that don’t necessarily have completed suicides within them.”
Here was the trans-rights movement’s greatest legal brain, speaking in front of the nation’s highest court. And what he was saying was that the strongest argument for a hotly debated treatment was, in fact, not supported by the evidence.
Even then, his admission did not register with the liberal justices. When the court voted 6–3 to uphold the Tennessee law, Sonia Sotomayor claimed in her dissent that “access to care can be a question of life or death.” If she meant any kind of therapeutic support, that might be defensible. But claiming that this is true of medical transition specifically—the type of care being debated in the Skrmetti case—is not supported by the current research.
Here Strangio and the ACLU lost out because they adduced a “zombie fact”. Yes, thought of “suicidality” might increase if blockers aren’t given, but the data are inconclusive, and we should always remember that the great majority of children and adolescents with gender dysphoria who don’t transition turn out to be cis, gay or bisexual, outcomes that doesn’t lead to more dysphoria, much less sterility, medical complications, bone problems, and so on.
Zombie facts, like zombies themselves, are hard to kill, not least because people who adduce them are ideologues who are resistant to facts. In this respect they resemble creationists.
Marci Bowers, the former head of the World Professional Association for Transgender Health (WPATH), the most prominent organization for gender-medicine providers, has likened skepticism of child gender medicine to Holocaust denial. “There are not two sides to this issue,” she once said, according to a recent episode of The Protocol, a New York Times podcast.
Here’s one result of those zombie facts:
When red-state bans are discussed, you will also hear liberals say that conservative fears about the medical-transition pathway are overwrought—because all children get extensive, personalized assessments before being prescribed blockers or hormones. This, too, is untrue. Although the official standards of care recommend thorough assessment over several months, many American clinics say they will prescribe blockers on a first visit.
This isn’t just a matter of U.S. health providers skimping on talk therapy to keep costs down; some practitioners view long evaluations as unnecessary and even patronizing. “I don’t send someone to a therapist when I’m going to start them on insulin,” Olson-Kennedy told The Atlantic in 2018. Her published research shows that she has referred girls as young as 13 for double mastectomies. And what if these children later regret their decision? “Adolescents actually have the capacity to make a reasoned logical decision,” she once told an industry seminar, adding: “If you want breasts at a later point in your life, you can go and get them.”
Yes, you can go and get them. “Two new breasts, please.” Of course those breasts will have no sensation, sexual or otherwise.
Finally, the organization that perhaps promulgates the most zombie facts is The World Professional Association for Transgender Health (WPATH), which has spread the false rumor that Britain’s 2020 Cass Review, was shoddy and wrong. That report concluded that “the evidence base and rationale for early puberty suppression was unclear, which led to a UK ban on prescribing puberty blockers to those under 18 experiencing gender dysphoria (with the exception of existing patients or those in a clinical trial).” This led to the closure of the UK’s main Gender Identity Center (GIDS) and a revision of the way patients are referred for treatment. But WPATH, firmly wedded to affirmative care and the transitioning of those not of age to make such decisions, opposed the report, spreading misinformation about it:
The reliance on elite consensus over evidence helps make sense of WPATH’s flatly hostile response to the Cass report in England, which commissioned systematic reviews and recommended extreme caution over the use of blockers and hormones. The review was a direct challenge to WPATH’s ability to position itself as the final arbiter of these treatments—something that became more obvious when the conservative justices referenced the British document in their questions and opinions in Skrmetti. One of WPATH’s main charges against Hilary Cass, the senior pediatrician who led the review, was that she was not a gender specialist—in other words, that she was not part of the charmed circle who already agreed that these treatments were beneficial.
Another: the Biden Administration’s Rachel Levine, a trans-identified man who was the Assistant Secretary for Health and Human Servies, even tried to completely get rid of any age minimums for “affirmative care”. She said in emails that having age limits would make it harder for people to allow youths to transition. But what’s wrong with that given we have age limits for decisions (like driving or drinking) with health import? As far as I know, Levine failed,
But to me as a scientist, the worst part of the whole mess is when scientists get data showing that the claims of gender activists are wrong, and then the data are withheld or delayed. This is exactly the kind of ideological distortion of science that Luana and I described in our Skeptical Inquirer article. But it’s even worse, because distorting medical issues not only misrepresents the facts, but also leads to uninformed medical practice, something far more harmful to people than, say, attacking evolutionary psychology on ideological grounds. Here are two examples of data being withheld or delayed because it didn’t support “accepted” gender medicine (words are from The Atlantic):
A) The Alabama litigation also confirmed that WPATH had commissioned systematic reviews of the evidence for the Dutch protocol. [The Dutch Protocol, developed in the Netherlands, is pretty much what we call “affirmative care” in the U.S., involving blockers followed by hormone treatment and perhaps surgery.] However, close to publication, the Johns Hopkins University researcher involved was told that her findings needed to be “scrutinized and reviewed to ensure that publication does not negatively affect the provision of transgender health care.” This is not how evidence-based medicine is supposed to work. You don’t start with a treatment and then ensure that only studies that support that treatment are published. In a legal filing in the Alabama case, Coleman insisted “it is not true” that the WPATH guidelines “turned on any ideological or political considerations” and that the group’s dispute with the Johns Hopkins researcher concerned only the timing of publication. Yet the Times has reported that at least one manuscript she sought to publish “never saw the light of day.”
B) The Alabama disclosures are not the only example of this reluctance to acknowledge contrary evidence. Last year, Olson-Kennedy said that she had not published her own broad study on mental-health outcomes for youth with gender dysphoria, because she worried about its results being “weaponized.” That raised suspicions that she had found only sketchy evidence to support the treatments that she has been prescribing—and publicly advocating for—over many years.
Last month, her study finally appeared as a preprint, a form of scientific publication where the evidence has not yet been peer-reviewed or finalized. Its participants “demonstrated no significant changes in reported anxious/depressed, withdrawn/depressed, somatic complaints, social problems, thought problems, attention problems, aggressive behavior, internalizing problems or externalizing problems” in the two years after starting puberty blockers. (I have requested comment from Olson-Kennedy via Children’s Hospital Los Angeles but have not yet heard back.)
Clearly this study was delayed because it showed that puberty blockers did not relieve symptoms of gender dysphoria—a claim that is part of the “dead son or live daughter” trope. Author Lewis’s quote about how evidence-based medicine is supposed to work is absolutely appropriate here. Two studies didn’t show what they should have, so people didn’t want them published.
Now Lewis, like me, is not in favor of total bans on young people getting transitions. But given the fact that the bulk of young people who don’t get affirmative care wind up as gay is, to me, a powerful argument for making it very hard to undergo medical gender transitions. Even Lewis has changed her mind a bit in view of the fact that puberty blockers are not (as everyone thinks) always completely reversible, and also we lack good long-term studies of their effects. As Lewis notes:
However, the revelations from Skrmetti and the Alabama case have made me more sympathetic to commentators such as Leor Sapir, of the conservative Manhattan Institute, who supports the bans because American medicine cannot be trusted to police itself. “Are these bans the perfect solution? Probably not,” he told me in 2023. “But at the end of the day, if it’s between banning gender-affirming care and leaving it unregulated, I think we can minimize the amount of harm by banning it.” Once you know that WPATH wanted to publish a review only if it came to the group’s preferred conclusion, Sapir’s case becomes more compelling.
Lewis concludes that it shouldn’t be embarrassing to revise one’s views in light of scientific data. That, in fact, is how science works. But when it comes up against ideologues—particularly the diehard advocates of gender ideology—many people don’t want to change their minds. This is a palpably unscientific attitude, and one harmful to young people.
Despite the concerted efforts to suppress the evidence, however, the picture on youth gender medicine has become clearer over the past decade. It’s no humiliation to update our beliefs as a result: I regularly used to write that medical transition was “lifesaving,” before I saw how limited the evidence on suicide was. And it took another court case, brought by the British detransitioner Keira Bell, for me to realize fully that puberty blockers were not what they were sold as—a “safe and reversible” treatment that gave patients “time to think”—but instead a one-way ticket to full transition, with physical changes that cannot be undone.
Lewis’s conclusion seems sound, at least until we have more data:
We can support civil-rights protections for transgender people without having to endorse an experimental and unproven set of medical treatments—or having to repeat emotionally manipulative and now discredited claims about suicide.
I’m not sure why this one issue has evoked so much rancor and attempt to distort science, but somehow permissiveness to undergo “affirmative care,” combined with the sacralization of those who change gender, has turned this into an argument about virtue rather than science. In the end, though, you can’t decide what is virtuous unless you have the data. As Richard Feynman said, referring to the Challenger disaster, “For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled.”
h/t: Norman



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