I’m writing this early as I may not be posting much today. This is a thread where you can vent, cheer, or worry about the election as the results roll in. I’ve discovered, as this day approached, that many of my friends who aren’t Americans, and who don’t live here, are nevertheless just as worried as we are. As one of my friends wrote me, “It is not just the US that will suffer if Trump wins, but the populist leaders around the world will gain strength as well. It is also a real test of the Republican Party; we will see if they have the guts to uphold ‘American values’ if Trump refuses to concede.”
The New York Times has a handy guide about when the results will come in, and what counts as good news (if you’re for Biden/Harris). Click below to read it, but the real purpose of this post is to give readers a place to vent joy, disappointment, or frustration.
As I said, I voted for the Biden ticket, and posted a video on this site of me blacking in the “Biden/Harris” oval on my mail-in ballot. I had to take that down as it violated Illinois’s “ballot selfie” laws (a felony here!), but readers know that my loyalties have always been with the Democrats. I’m not that nervous today, and I hope my equanimity is justified.
Have at it!
Subscribe, joy or chagrin later.
The most important thing is not despotism but Climate Change!
So a zero-carbon despot would be OK?
Actually yes.
Actually no.
Regarding the longer term effects of global warming, one expects the future will see an ecological disaster unlike any in recorded history. Vast geopolitical upheavals and the like. If that is the case, I would take a despot who gets us out of that in a heartbeat. They only last for so long, but the global warming thing will go on for I dunno, thousands of years.
How about a zero-carbon despot who says a nuclear war against North Korea is certainly in the definite planning unless they simply surrender in the next 48 hours?
That’s just an example to make a point about single issue questions, despite climate change being very clearly the most important question here for any other nation looking at this election.
On one hand I can’t believe the country that elected Obama twice can’t pull together and elect Biden.
On the other hand…..
One optimistic view offered by a correspondent on BBC Radio 4 was that while the polls were wrong in 2016 because of “shy Trumpers”, he suspects that this time there are a significant number of Republicans who aren’t willing to say publicly that they’re not voting for him to have a second term. We’ll see how that plays out, of course…
I really do worry. Good luck, America.
OY VEY ! me too. I wish I still believed in prayer.
Special thoughts and cares to you all today.
Thank you. I worry, too. The Trumpists have shown their true colors and I don’t know how we come back from the damage he has done.
I voted MAGA (Make Asshole Go Away)!
I’m hoping for a Biden landslide. My prediction back on October 13:
139 million votes (10 million more than 2016 – this now looks low)
74 million Biden 53.3% 338 Electoral votes
63 million Trump 45.2% 200 Electoral votes
2 million others 1.5% 0 Electoral votes
I would like to see a Broadway play where Trump sits on a bus stop bench and next to him sits George Orwell.
And just imagine the conversation between the two of them,
the man that invented newspeak, and the man who became president using it….
It would play longer on Broadway than cats.
I’d settle for seeing a play with him playing Willie Loman.
Sub.
According to Maggie Habes & crew at the NYT, despite being fed happy talk and phony polls regarding his reelection prospects by his inner circle, in his darker moments the Donald has taken to fretting over facing prosecution once he’s been bounced from office (as well he should).
Jane Mayer has an article on that subject in The New Yorker:
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/11/09/why-trump-cant-afford-to-lose
That’s it in a nut shell. Trump should be getting ready for the crowbar hotel. A room without a view.
Altogether now, “Lock him up!”: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/temporary-security-fence-to-enclose-white-house-complex-park-service-says/ar-BB1aDmSH
Forgot to add, “Hey, he finally built a wall”!
I heard him on Fox today, and he sounded disheartened. He even said “we had a good run.” As if he knows his fate is dark. OTOH, Biden sounded confident and chipper. I know these observations mean nothing, but it cheered me up.
Crowbar hotel is not in the cards. In January, The Donald and his whole brood will move in with Edward Snowden in Moscow, with Gerard Depardieu serving as their chef.
That would make a great reality TV show: “Housemates From Hell.”
And be entertained by Steven Seagal.
Could he just piss off permanently to, say Poland, to avoid this? Would that be desirable?
Yes! It will be harder for Trump to make trouble overseas. (He can probably find a way, but he’ll have less of an impact if he’s not actually in America.)
How you gonna keep him down on the farm, after he’s… been the star of Celebrity President for four years? He luvs him his mindless, adoring crowd.
What I would like is to no longer hear about him. No more of his utterances to a flocking press who will broadcast his spew over the air. No more tweets. No more news about the giant orange baby.
I doubt it; Trump said in a tweet yesterday that “the Poles are closed!”
Also, hasn’t Poland suffered enough?
That law strikes me as being of dubious constitutionality under the Free Speech clause of the First Amendment, particularly as applied to a selfie involving a ballot filled out other than inside a voting booth.
In Wisconsin, state law prohibits any and all camera use in a polling area, so people voting in person cannot take ballot selfies. There is also no cell phone calling (placing or receiving) in polling areas except by election personnel on election business. There is nothing that prohibits ballot selfies on absentee ballots filled out at home or any other location where photography is not restricted.
The law exists to prevent creative camera users from violating other voters’ ballot secrecy. We have people who use their cell phones to get online to consult voter guides (no different than bringing in a newspaper with endorsements published), or to look up residence information when registering (Wisconsin has election day registration).
Since the law prohibiting photography is a blanket ordinance covering all photography, it is not considered in violation of the first amendment – news crews are also prohibited from filming or otherwise making recordings inside polling places.
Yeah, polling places themselves are generally treated as sancta sanctorum of privacy to preserve a voter’s right to cast a secret ballot, which is why I drew the distinction above. If I recall correctly, there’s also generally a set-back zone near the entrance to polling stations within which persons handing out campaign literature and carrying political placards are prevented from approaching voters on their way to the polls.
A prohibition on photographing one’s own mail-in ballot from elsewhere, on the other hand, would be no more constitutional under the Free Speech clause than a blanket prohibition on voluntarily disclosing to others how one had voted.
I am totally stressed out. This will be the only political site I will go to for a while. Had enough ‘doom scrolling’.
Tonight I’m watching anything on Netflix.
… … one there upon Netflix, Dr Sturtevant,
which I heartily recommend and had I, long and long ago,
been lucky enough to ‘ve realized a goal of then
to become a film actress … … THE role I would ‘ve
loved with which to have begun that: the Queen’s Gambit.
One, if one wishes, which can easily, easily
through all of its seven episodes … … binge.
Too, there is the excruciatingly exquisite performances
by both the gorgeous Ms Rosamund Pike and
the darling Mr Christian Bale within The Hostiles.
As well as the dynamite seven episodes of
G O D L E S S ! ALSO binge – worthy Godless be !
Blue
We’ve (my family and I) been watching Queen’s Gambit. I think its one of the best shows I’ve seen yet, and that’s saying a lot given how good “TV” has gotten in the past 10 or so years. Acting, writing, cinematography, all very well done.
I watched two episodes last night. The thing I don’t like about the camera work is the shallow depth of field they seem to favour. I was having hard time focusing yesterday (no idea why but could be indicating a migraine coming) & it was really hard to watch.
Me too (stressed out).
I’m flipping back and forth between coverage and other shows.
It ain’t looking good in Florida. As of 8ish, Biden’s underperforming Clinton in Miami by 10 points, and the counties with the least reporting at this point are in the panhandle.
I am watching PA tonight. If Biden takes Penn his chances of winning will be good given his leads in WI and MI.
I doubt PA will be announced tonight. There are too many absentee ballots to be counted and they will be counted if they come in still until Friday.
I’m hoping Florida goes blue. We’ll know the answer about FL tonight, probably early. It could be over right then.
Wouldn’t that be nice.
If that happens, I’m going to blast The Beach Boys’ “Wouldn’t it Be Nice”! Here on the West coast, we might even find out before the beer runs out. 😉
And if the unthinkable happens, there’s always this: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Let%27s_Go_Away_for_Awhile
If that happens, I think we’d need to go for a loooong while…to Canada or New Zealand. 😬
Don’t expect concrete numbers from Wisconsin until late Wednesday or maybe Thursday.
America has some growing-up to do…
* Respect the Second Amendment in its entirety, so that every gun-owner has to belong to a ‘well-ordered militia’ which involves regular training sessions, and whereby all guns are held at militia HQ.
* Black folk have to learn that the police are NOT the law, because only a judge can send you to prison, so that being arrested doesn’t automatically mean a jail sentence…So stop resisting arrest.
* Dems as well as Reps have to stop demonizing each other, and realise that a democracy demands equal representation of both world views. Look for what you have in common, not at what divides you.
* The excellent journalists must develop a greater world view so that the American people can be told about how other nations are tackling major problems such as Global Warming. America is looking increasingly old-fashioned.
* Part of tackling Global Warming is that Americans do not know about modern technologies such as two hundred mile an hour trains, or the switch to non polluting heating systems.
I love the USA; lived there 50 years ago which was a golden age; had an American wife; bought land in California overlooking the ocean and built a cabin in the redwoods…a golden age, sadly gone forever..
George in France
I don’t see Biden losing any states that went to Hillary in 2016.
I do see Trump losing some swing states from 2020.
So hard to see how Trump wins.
I thought that, too.
Furthermore, Trump won four states by 1.2% or less: Florida (29 EVs), Pennsylvania (20 EVs), Wisconsin (10 EVs) and Michigan (16 EVs). Had these states been won by Clinton, she would have won the Electoral College by a 307-231 margin.
It’s difficult to imagine that he’ll win all four of those again, but I could be wrong.
As of this morning, Biden looks like he’ll take Wisconsin but that’s not firm, Trump won Florida, PA and MI are still up in the air but Trump leads in both. 🙁
Looking at the various house and senate races, it looks like practically all of the “too close to call” races broke in favor of the GOP.
Biden wasn’t expected to win FL. But FL wasn’t as close as expected.
“Biden wasn’t expected to win FL. But FL wasn’t as close as expected.”
I should qualify that – it depends on which pollster you believe for FL, because 538 DID favor Biden 69 to 31.
Damn, Trump is only up 5 points in Missouri right now. In 2016 he won by 18.5 points. That’s a staggering loss of support.
I don’t drink very often, but tonight seems like a good night to get drunk. It will help with going to bed early instead of relentlessly checking news sites and when I wake up the hangover will be nothing compared to my joy if Biden wins. And if Trump does then a hangover is an appropriate way to greet the further decline of America.
I don’t imbibe much either, but will enjoy some this evening while I am busy NOT watching the returns. I am way too nervous. If we cannot rid ourselves of Donald Quisling Tr*mp and the Vichy Republicans, then the divine-whatever help us all.
“[T]onight seems like a good night to get drunk” – but what if you don’t taste very nice? (Sorry, blame Douglas Adams and his “It’s unpleasantly like being drunk” / “What’s so unpleasant about being drunk?” / “Ask a glass of water!” )
I’m in for the long haul, since I don’t think we’ll have a winner declared probably until Friday.
To make it through till then, I’ve stashed away two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, and a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers… and also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of Budweiser, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.
Oh, wait, that’s not me; that was the contents of the trunk of the Red Shark when my 300 pound Samoan client took a trip to Las Vegas to cover the Mint 500 motorcycle race and a district attorneys’ convention.
Sorry, sometimes I get these things confused. 🙂
Decadent and depraved is the worst kind of decadent.
I hope that convention was pre-COVID.
anxious, worried and scared. I’ve never been an optimist unfortunately.
I thought I was happy when Justin Trudeau and the Liberals defeated Stephen Harper and the Conservatives here in Canada in 2015, but that will be nothing compared to the joy and relief I’ll feel if Biden and the Democrats defeat the deplorable disaster that are Trump and the Republicans. And I’m not even American.
I’ve got relatives in Canada, and my general impression is that the Canadian conservative party is far less hardline than the U.S. Republican party. (But since 2016, that’s not saying much, I guess.)
sub
“If Trump refuses to concede”…? All he’s said is that he’ll wait until all the votes are counted — and that may be awhile. The worst the Dems can do is hold up an official agreement on the count until after Inauguration Day — in which case, Trump will be out and *Nancy Pelosi* will take over until the last ballot is verified. I don’t think the citizens will put up with that, though.
Here is George Carlin who had politics figured out decades ago.
Hoping the country votes the pro-science ticket and also mourning that this is even a thing.
+1. Succinctly stated, Ms Houle. Perfect.
How, within y2020, is this questioning – deal
.e v e n. a thing ?
Blue
Texas Blue. I want Texas to go blue. This time. Now. C’mon man. C’mon Texas. Go Blue.
I’d rather Florida go blue since we’ll know that a lot earlier than Texas, but yes, Texas going blue would be an amazing political victory. Not to mention a massive symbolic defeat for Trump and his corrupt party.
Well, a few polling places closed back east so the pundits can get started now. I saw James Carville, political consultant, make a few comments. He said there should be no problems and the democrats will win. There are a few democratic bed wetters out there but it should be no problems.
I think that the blatant voter suppression the GOP tried backfired bigly. Pretty much all their lawsuits to not count ballots after the election failed, their attempts to throw out 127,000 Texas votes failed, their astonishing efforts to subjugate the USPS failed (and I bet this turned off a lot of independents, seniors and veterans). And we owe a debt of gratitude for those on the ground and in the courts who fought back against the GOP’s undemocratic actions.
Earlier today, DC district court judge Emmett Sullivan — the same federal trial judge who told the government “not so fast” when attorney general William Barr ordered prosecutors to move to dismiss the criminal case against Trump’s former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn after Flynn had already pleaded guilty — ordered US postal inspectors to do a sweep of all USPS facilities to make sure that every mail-in ballot in their facilities gets delivered to its designated polling place today.
It’s good to know there are judges who won’t tolerate electoral fuckery.
And I can add this action as another positive for my comment above.
But the USPS failed/refused to abide by the order.
And Judge Sullivan is calling them on the carpet for it today. As far as the mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania and North Carolina are concerned, they’ll still be counted if they’re delivered now.
Surely the GOP attorneys are already drafting a suit to disqualify all votes for Biden and Harris, on the constitutional grounds that the Founding Fathers never once mentioned either Biden or Harris. Justice Barrett will presumbably write the opinion for the SCOTUS majority ruling.
Not too far from the truth, I’m sure. They more than likely are preparing to challenge a significant number of votes.
I’m worried.
Yup, me too.
Worse for me. I’ve got a sense of foreboding.
Miami-Dade not looking too great…!
Florida is toast.
Definite sense of dread here. And I’m a meager Canadian.
Yes, Biden is under-performing with Hispanics.
About 30% of Hispanic men liked DT. He’s tough.
They call him Superman.
And they fear socialism.
He’s a freakin’ pendejo.
Trump has more or less telegraphed his intention to try to prevent those mail-in votes from ever being counted — to find some excuse, any excuse, for stopping the clock tonight. This would be crazy, a violation of every democratic principle — but with a 6-3 Supreme Court, it could happen.
— Nate Cohn, NYT
I found it sad and ironic that a MSM outlet like Politico would post articles with skepticism regarding our vulnerable voting systems on the DAY of an election. Where was this concern months or years ago?
We voted on machines owned by Republican operatives and which are fully protected from ANY form of forensic investigation. Untouchable. If there is hacking or manipulation we cannot audit these systems. So, if Trump manages to steal this election it will be because of these compromised voting machines.
I desperately hope this doesn’t happen. But we urgently need to address the insecure and vulnerable voting systems that are in place in our country if we want to preserve our democracy.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/02/one-big-flaw-in-how-americans-run-elections-433820
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/03/2020-election-recount-ballot-machine-technology-law-433871
I genuinely fail to understand how the election of the president of the entire country isn’t covered by federal rules and is instead allowed to be decided at the state or even county level.
It’s eleven minutes past midnight here in the UK – I’ve been extremely, giddily confident about Trump getting a thrashing for a while now but all I had to do was spend three minutes on Twitter and the nerves set in. I will not torture myself any further, so I’m off to bed.
I really mean this from the bottom of my heart: good luck America. This has been a truly f***ing nightmarish four years and the damage that grotty, ugly little man has done to the fabric of liberal democracy, to political discourse, racial discourse…just to basic good manners…is incalculable. It has affected my own country hugely.
He is a toxic pied piper, and the effect he has had has been like mainlining a couple of pints into the bloodstream of every racist, sexist scumbag on earth. They feel very, very confident because of him. He has intoxicated them.
I don’t know if the genie can ever be put back in the lamp, but a sound kicking from Biden would be the bare minimum necessary. Make it so.
I just think it is terribly depressing that people are boarding up their businesses in expectation of post-election violence.
Poll worker training in Milwaukee included how to deal with potential voter location disruption and even violence, but in the ward where I worked, no such incidents occurred.
Sad it has come to this, isn’t it? I used to look back at video of race riots in the US and think about how foreign a feeling it was. Now it’s worse than ever.
A dire moment, for sure.
In other but related news, the Polish populist party pushing against abortion has made the younger population mad and the party support has dropped huge in polls.
And thus we see the pendulum of folly swing wildly. Fortunately it centers automatically.
Florida is almost dead even with 80% of the vote counted at this time. Not looking too good for Biden in Florida.
Nail biter.
Yeah, I think we are going to lose Florida but Texas, although early, is looking interesting. That would be a real surprise if Biden could pull that out. Texas has been turning more to the blue almost every year.
Looks to me like Trump carries Florida. Depressing.
On the plus side, the next president will be pretty hilarious, too. We‘ll find out which genre of comedy it is. In other circumstances, I‘d prefer absurdist, black humour, but I root for cringe comedy in this case.
Results from my home county in East Central Florida.
This is very bad. Indian River County Trump vote 2020- 60.3% 2016 — 60.8%
100% reporting.
Drinking Game, Anyone?
https://taibbi.substack.com/p/official-2020-election-night-drinking
Don’t worry baby. Everything will work out alright.
Just as additional info, North Carolina is starting to look good for the democrats and that goes for the Senate pick up as well. North Carolina was not necessary for Biden to get the 270 but it will certainly help. You know they are going to pick up a Senate seat in Arizona as well.
NYT has Trump at 71% chance of winning NC. It’s not looking to good for Biden, America and the world at large right now.
Biden pretty much needs at least one of NC, Georgia, and Arizona, and it looks like he could lose all three.
Nick Nurse (American), coach of the Toronto Raptors, was just on the CBC explaining that he was involved in an effort to get Americans living in Canada to get out and vote. He said there were 650,000 (!) Americans living in Canada who were eligible to vote. Who knew!?
They walk among us.
Full panic mode. If I’m going to live in a banana-ish republic I’d rather be in Belize.
Belize is rather right-wing and virulently anti-LGBTQ, last I heard.
Biden 119
Trump 92
Colorado’s mail balloting system shows again how it should be done. Push the tabulate button at 7 and results are known shortly thereafter. At least this state showed Trumpite Gardner the door, and a solid thumbs down on Agent Orange.
So basically the tight “non-landslide” race that everyone feared, which bodes ill for a sh*tstorm either way, is happening?
Well, I haven’t seen any reports of individual districts (or states) where the final tally was so close as to require a recount. I’m sure there will be some, but as a major problem, we seem to have avoided that happening all over the place. Other than Trump’s threat to go to court over mail-in ballots, it doesn’t look like there will be a lot of suits or judicial involvement in the various district counts.
But yes, in terms of electoral college votes, it’s very very tight. It’s now coming down to the last few critical races (e.g. PA, some others), with Trump being slightly ahead in most of them.
Many blue Americans assured that Sanders’s popularity on the internet doesn’t mean anything, and that Biden has a huge cavalry standing by, but who are just not online. I didn’t buy this, but I didn’t place much confidence in my doubt, because I’m not an American. But again, Trump does too well. This already makes it harder for Republicans to get rid of the Trumpstain, and does not bode well, even if Biden emerges victorious.
Based on the portents, I think we are in for four more years of the same. I will never trust 538 again.
I stopped trusting them after 2016. Haven’t looked at them since.
Our son’s prediction model consistently outperforms Silver’s. This year he took into account all of the polling failures of 2016, and his final analysis came up a tie at 259 with the election being decided by Pennsylvania. 20 to Trump for a 279 win. I hope he’s wrong. Electoralmap.net
Surprised no one has posted this yet. It’s from Terry Pratchett’s Going Postal:
“What sort of man would put a known criminal in charge of a major branch of government? Apart from, say, the average voter.”
Then there’s this:
Friends, it looks to me now that Biden will get 264 EV or less.
Well, there now seems to be a chance Biden can pull off upsets in Tx and Iowa. Patience will be needed.
And still a chance the Georgia’s mail-in ballots will flip that state to Biden. This will definitely be a nail-biter for the next few days.
I’m worried.
Nobody ever lost an election underestimating the intelligence of the American public.
And while I’m (mis)quoting Mencken, I found a beauty from him:
On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.
That should have been graffitied all over the White House for the last four years.
cr
It is a little past 9:30 PM and I have just gotten home from working as an election inspector¹ in Milwaukee. I was, in fact, chief inspector, meaning I was the boss of the polling site, and I had twenty inspectors working for me. That also meant arrive by 6:00, working straight through to 9:00 PM with no breaks. We ended with a ballot count of 394 (out of a list of registered voters numbering around 1,200), but there were lots of people listed as absentee or early voters (normally, my voting ward² has 60% – 75% turnout, so I’ll have to wait until the absentee/early vote numbers get counted and posted. We had no disruptions except for one rowdy voter and one troublesome observer and no major glitches, hitches or incidents. Our final results for the presidential race was Biden 317, Trump 71, Others & Write-Ins 6. My ward is a heavily blue ward in the Riverwest neighborhood of Milwaukee, also known as The Place Where Aging Hippies Go To Die. I was vastly overstaffed; where I usally have trouble covering all the positions, today I had trouble finding enough tasks to keep everyone busy. My staff, despite most of them being on their first election, did an admirable job, and I gave them all good marks at the end of the night. Now I get to watch returns and lament the fact that the rest of the state and nation didn’t vote like my ward did.
¹”Election Inspector is Milwaukeean for “poll worker”.
² In Milwaukee, a voting ward is what most other places call a precinct. For some reason, the city avoids the word “precinct”. Our police are organized into districts and the voting areas into wards.
If Trump wins, I will wager that he immediately starts to talk about a third term.
By the time he’s ready for a third term, the country will be beyond repair. Nothing will matter.
The rest of the world will matter, at least to the rest of the world even if not American voters, if tRump hasn’t managed to fuck it up even more.
But then, the rest of the world doesn’t get a vote.
If the Orange Shitgibbon gets back after everything it’s done, it will be even more insufferable.
cr
It’s a good thing Biden will win. These hypotheticals are fun, but really, we will have to get used to a president who doesn’t tweet. At least he is unlikely to tweet on the toilet at 3 AM. 🤔
That’s a nice positive view. I do hope you’re right. For the sake of the world.
cr
Of course I’m right. I wouldn’t let the world down.
🙂
AZ for Biden, 218-148! (Fox News)
Did anyone ever tell y’all your election process is seriously screwed up? The Electoral College is a pretty stupid idea, with the daft rule that 51% secures ALL the state votes for the ‘winner’ (except in a couple of states). That can obviously distort results, like all FPP systems. And apparently, a ‘faithless elector’ could vote against their state’s results, and in some states nothing could legally be done to correct it. Wtf?
And you’ve got a national election process run according to state laws, so different in every state.
It’s almost as if someone had designed it to create employment for lawyers.
cr
A very good point. Sadly, as we have found in the UK, electoral reform is almost impossible to achieve as those who are advantaged by the current imbalances are not prepared to give up that advantage and they hold the whip hand.
Oh yeah, our current Liberal party in Canada promised electoral reform and of course did nothing when they got in power (as predicted by people expert in these matters). I recently wrote to one of the party leaders to hold them accountable to this but my hopes are not very high. We even had a referendum one year but there was so much misinformation that people voted against it thinking that not doing “first past the post”, was unfair. Hilarious & sad.
We (NZ) succeeded a couple of decades ago and got MMP (Mixed Member Proportional). We get one vote for a local electorate MP and one for a party. If a party gets less MP’s than its percentage of party votes then it gets ‘topped up’ from the party list.
It certainly helps smaller parties who previously might have got 10% of the vote but no seats.
And as a voter I can say it’s great. I don’t have to ‘strategic vote’ for the-most-likely-opposing-candidate (if I could even tell who that was) or worry about splitting the vote and letting the ‘other side’ through, and there aren’t any ‘critical constituencies’ where a handful of votes can swing the election. And it’s impossible for a party to win a majority of seats with a minority of votes.
When the referendum was held we got all sorts of propaganda about how FPP gave ‘strong government’ as if that was a good thing in itself. Mostly funded by big business interests.
MMP has led to coalition governments but it has worked.
There are a few minor glitches in our implementation – there’s a rule that a party getting less than 5% does not get any seats (unless it captures an electorate seat) – I think this was a relic of FPP mentality to avoid any ‘funny little parties’ getting into Parliament. That has occasionally led large parties (usually National) to throw an electorate seat to a small party (e.g. Act) who will support them. 5% is a lot of ‘wasted’ votes, I think it should be lowered to say 3%.
But still, way way better than FPP.
cr
Yes your electoral system is like Germany’s. It’s the one I want here. But during the referendum people were filled with fears we’d get a Nazi party or something. Ridiculous.
The federal government has nothnig to do with that; the states decide for themselves whether to do that or not.
Most choose to do it because it gives the state more leverage on candidates (i.e. the candidate will take PA more seriously and cater to PA issues more, if they know PA will be a 20-vote swing one way or the other.)
Again, the federal government doesn’t control or regulate this, each state does. IIRC many of them have laws preventing faithless electors.
Maybe not lawyers, but certainly designed with the State in mind as the primary political unit, not the country.
As an aside, in 2016 there were ten ‘faithless’ votes, of which three were overturned by state laws.
cr
At this point the most likely outcome is a Biden Presidency and a Republican Senate.
Expect absolutely nothing to be done for two years then for Dems to get massacred in the midterms. Then we likely head for Trump 2.0 in 2024.
Trump just spoke and of course claimed to have won the election and will release his lawyers.
The nightmare scenario everyone worried about has come true.
2020. The year that keeps on giving.
I have a bad feeling about this. Trump is well ahead in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin and he seems to have done better in Florida than last time.
They are probably just counting the day’s, in-person voting. Just wait until they get their hands on that big stack of early votes in the back room next to the furnace.
Trump is doing his best to ensure those votes wont get counted. 🙁
Don’t tell the Trumpies that the votes are next to the furnace. They’ll arrange an “accident”.
The small glimmer of hope I have comes from the fact that both PA and MI count their in-person votes first, then their absentee votes later. So both might experience a blue shift as voting continues over the next couple of days.
However, I think that’s a pretty thin thread at this point.
Doing some back of the envelope math, things look even grimmer. The way I calculate it, Biden would have to win ~62% of the uncounted PA votes to take the state. I would believe he could take 55% of them. I do not believe 62% is going to happen.
Here’s my basis: AP is reporting 64% returns in, with Trump having 2,965,636 and Biden having 2,290,624. That would means Biden has to take about 700,000 more votes than Trump out of the roughly 2,956,646 uncounted ballots. Which means 1,828,323 of them…or about 61.8%.
Here’s how it could shake out even if Biden loses PA:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/NxdAW
Need MI and Nevada though in this scenario…
It seems Biden has taken Wisconsin. As of the moment it hasn’t been called yet. But 99% of the vote is now counted and there aren’t enough outstanding to give it to tRump.
Frankly, how can someone the likes of Trump have any chance of making a career in politics at all? Already the fact that Trump has a chance at winning is a confession of failure for a country, its idiotic electoral system, and its mindset in general. The United States of Arseholes. Actually, I think you deserve four more years of Trump, just as you deserve each and every gun victim. A moron president for a moron people.
Many of us despise Trump, and yet you tar the whole country as a “moron people”, the “United states of Arseholes” with an odious mindset.
You don’t deserve to post here because of that ridiculous remark. Yes, Trump is a moron and those who voted for him are deplorable. But you dismiss the entire country. Speaking of arseholes, maybe you should look in the mirror. You don’t have the civility to post here, and you won’t be posting any more.
Robert, although our host rightfully came down hard on you, I will agree that you accurately described a minority group in this country. We have suffered much from minority rule for the past 4 years, and may face the same for another 4. Those of us living in blue states are somewhat less affected by the pernicious Trump administration, but we need support not aspersion.
Unfortunately, it seems to be a very large minority. Something that I can’t understand is, how is it even possible that such a patently, blatantly unsuitable character as Trump could get elected? I find it easier to explain Hitler – he arrived in politics at a traumatic time, after years of national hardship, when people desperately wanted a leader to get behind, and he reportedly was a powerful speaker and had heaps of charisma. None of those things applied in Trump’s case.
It really is as if half the population had a sudden catastrophic loss of IQ.
And while I think your electoral system is irrational, I can’t suggest any ‘fixes’ that would guarantee ‘never Trump’. Straight majority voting might help a little. ‘Elect better politicians’ would help a lot, I think, but how to achieve that?
cr
Wow, kick ’em when they’re down. I’d say the electoral college needs eliminating as well as “first past the post”. You’ll see that the majority of people voted for Hilary last time but through unfairness and cheating, they got this guy as their president. It’s unfair to tar the whole country “assholes”.
Trump’s speech to the Whitehouse this morning (UK time so during the night/early hours in the US) in which he claimed he had won and that it had been stolen by the democrats, was outrageous. On a par with the sort of trashing of democracy that we used to denounce Robert Mugabe for.
That trumpism was not flooded away is a huge victory for him. It is very sad that a lot of people think he has done a good job during the last 4 years.
The BBC is using adjectives like “falsely” and “baseless” in respect of Trump’s claims. This is quite remarkable because they do not normally make subjective judgements about what people say. They’re normally the ultimate fence sitters.
Desperate times call for pejorative modifiers.
😀 OMG I really hope I remember that one when necessary.
Robert Mugabe? I was thinking Idi Amin. Or maybe Muammar Gaddafi.
cr
But we knew this would happen. We just need to stay calm and stick to the plan, which is mostly staying calm until all the votes come in.
0700 Eastern…it’s not looking good. It’s probably going to come down to PA and MI. Right now, Trump has a small lead in both. More concerning (at least in my thinking) is that the republican candidate won the Governor race and Senate race in both states with about a 10 point lead, which bodes very badly given that most voters nowadays vote straight ticket.
Dammit, dammit, dammit.
Ah that’s completely erroneous info. The IS NO Senate or Governor race in PA, and no Governor race in MI. Though the GOP looks to win the Senate race there.
I must’ve accidentally pulled up a site from 2016 or earlier, my apologies…
I am ineffably sad for the Very Divided State(s) of America. I never thought that it would come to this. Here I am, wishing for a miracle … as an Australian in Japan. It should have nothing to do with me, but the prospect of another four years of what you’ve/we’ve been through, or something even worse, is devastating.
Marina Hyde in The Guardian has her usual comedic take. Her opening paragraph is a parody of Tony Blair’s press statement when the Good Friday Agreement was signed ( “This is no time for sound bites – I feel the hand of history on my shoulder!”) https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/04/ok-america-so-what-the-hell-happens-now
Mail-in ballots for the win. Biden’s flipped WI and will very likely flip MI. That’d be game over. Surprising to see a nearly +12 Trump lead hold all night only to go up in smoke in the wee morning hours.
So we saw the nearly “worst case” result for election credibility: an early Trump win flipped by mail-in ballots. At least it didn’t drag out for a week before they found ‘em. 😛
I can’t help but wonder how things would have turned out differently if everyone voted in person. I expect the “can I change my vote?” search trending on Google wasn’t from Trump supporters discovering a sudden love of Biden…
I was pretty depressed last night as I thought Biden was done. I really hope he takes this. The reputation of the US has taken a hideous blow and needs to reverse course. Frankly, it is disgusting that this is even close.
On twitter I follow a lot of self identified centrist intellectuals and I think their behavior has been pretty shameful. To be more specific, I am referring to centrist intellectuals that I think at heart are perhaps significantly further right than they would admit. Certainly, a lot of folks on this blog are left leaning centrists and I agree with them on much. Thinkers that can see both sides, acknowledge frustrating trade offs, and still act virtuously and reasonably are not a problem. Sam Harris, I think, is a good example of this latter case and I very much admire him. To return to the problem group, a lot of them just use any ideology they consider woke as total justification for voting Trump. Admittedly, a lot of wokeness is absurd and does not do the Democrats any favors. The problem is that they use this as a cheap excuse to tar all enthusiastic Biden supporters. I am thinking of folks like Dave Rubin and the obscene shit they pulled in support of Trump.
Anyway, I’d pray to God, but he has never helped me.
I worry what 4 more years of Trump will mean to Europe and NATO. A very emboldened Trump with a Russia that knows the US will not back NATO if they invade a NATO country like say, Lithuania. Suddenly NATO forces are engaged in a proxy war with Europe. Troops are pulled from other missions including peace keeping ones. The war can escalate while the US sits by and they won’t join late like in WWII.
As a classical liberal, I could care less who wins the presidential race. They are both authoritarians who only care about themselves: “No one will really understand politics until they understand that politicians are not trying to solve our problems. They are trying to solve their own problems — of which getting elected and re-elected are No. 1 and No. 2. Whatever is No. 3 is far behind”.
– Thomas Sowell, Economist