Trump, Carson still leading GOP pack

October 20, 2015 • 9:20 am

We have more good news from the USA, for it presages a Republican defeat a year from now. Donald Trump and Ben Carson, a pair of future losers if ever there was one, are still way ahead of all the other GOP candidates. My CNN newsfeed sent me this:

Donald Trump and Ben Carson now stand alone at the top of the Republican field, as Carly Fiorina’s brief foray into the top tier of candidates seeking the GOP nomination for president appears to have ended. A new CNN/ORC poll finds Fiorina has lost 11 points in the last month, declining from 15% support and second place to 4% and a tie for seventh place.

At the same time, Carson has gained eight points and joins Trump as the only candidates in the field with support above 20%. As in early September before Fiorina’s spike in support, Trump and Carson are the first choice candidate of about half of the potential Republican electorate.

All told, nearly two-thirds of Republican voters choose Trump or Carson as either their first or second choice for the nomination. [JAC: can you believe that figure?]

No other candidates made significant gains since the last CNN/ORC poll conducted just after the Republican debate hosted by CNN and the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library.

This is a bit embarrassing for America, for the rest of the world can’t understand how a loudmouthed, sexist businessman and a creationist neurosurgeon who equates gays with pedophiles can become Presidential timber. But to us liberals it’s all good, for neither of these men stands a chance defeating any potential Democratic candidate (and, barring indictment for the email kerfuffle or some unforeseen embarrassment in the upcoming House hearings on the Benghazi affair, the candidate will likely be Hillary Clinton). I’m willing to suffer the embarrassment of Trump and Carson to have another Democratic President.

Trump is truly a Teflon™ candidate, too: seemingly nothing he can do or say will hurt him. That shows that Republicans are, by and large, reactionary rather then visionary. Meanwhile, Trump has again inserted his metatarsals into his buccal orifice. Not long ago he claimed that the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq were both mistakes. Now he’s backtracked, claiming not only that he supported the invasion of Afghanistan, but that he never claimed otherwise. The record clearly shows he did. But that dissimulation won’t hurt him: all Republicans see is a loudmouthed conservative who wants to build a Big Wall to keep out immigrants.

I suppose they find Trump’s “populist” candor refreshing (if a billionaire can be a populist), reprehensible though his views may be. But I’m all for either Trump or Carson getting the GOP nomination, for it will make a 2016 Democratic victory a cakewalk. Better yet—a Trump/Carson ticket! Can you imagine?

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The GOP dream ticket for liberals

Go, Canada!

October 20, 2015 • 8:30 am

My Canadian friends and readers have been freaking out about yesterday’s election: a crucial one given the dire reign of Stephen Harper and the Conservative party, and all the polls showing the Liberal Party neck and neck with conservatives. But the news is all good. As The New York Times reports, the Liberal party had a decisive victory:

The nine-year reign of Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his Conservative Party came to a sudden and stunning end on Monday night at the hands of Justin Trudeau, the young leader of the Liberal Party.

Starting with a sweep of the Atlantic provinces, the Liberals capitalized on what many Canadians saw as Mr. Harper’s heavy-handed style, and the party went on to capture 184 of the 338 seats in the next House of Commons. The unexpected rout occurred 47 years after Mr. Trudeau’s father, Pierre Elliott Trudeau, first swept to power.

While the Liberal Party had emerged on top in several polls over the past week, its lead was short of conclusive and Mr. Trudeau was an untested figure. There was no ambiguity, however, in Monday’s results.

The Conservatives were reduced to 99 seats from 159 in the last Parliament, according to preliminary results. The New Democratic Party, which had held second place and formed the official opposition, held on to only 44 seats after suffering substantial losses in Quebec to the Liberals.

I’m sure all the Canadian readers here are celebrating, but before you do read this piece at 3D Policy: “Who will be the biggest losers in this election? Young Canadians.”  Highlighting the slump in the Canadian economy and the lack of prospects for external forces to improve it, the unnamed author argues that neither the Liberal nor the New Democratic Party has the means to fulfill its promises to revamp the stagnant economy:

The growth strategy of the Conservatives has always been clear -cut taxes, cut spending, balance the budget, cut the size of government, hope the U.S economy recovers, and pray for higher oil prices.  The entire April budget is based on this failed strategy. The economic and fiscal projections underlying the April budget can only be described as “pure fantasy”.

What is strange is that the Liberals and the NDP are twisting themselves into knots to put together economic growth strategies that are supposed to be different from that of the Conservatives, while at the same time adopting the Conservative orthodoxy that all deficits are bad, all debt is bad, and small government is good.

Like most Americans, I’m shamefully ignorant of Canadian politics and economics, but the author recommends “renewed federal-provincial trust and cooperation, with strong federal leadership, something that has been painfully lacking for years,” eliminating barriers to movement of goods and services across provinces (I didn’t now these existed!), a revamped tax structure, rebuilt infrastructure, and a comprehensive environmental protection and energy-development strategy. I’ll add here that the government needs to fund science more heavily: a continual complaint of my Canadian colleagues. Finally, the author recommends that, since interest rates are low, Canada adopt the International Monetary Fund’s recommendation to increase government borrowing to support infrastructure.

Canadian readers (or those who know the situation) are welcome celebrate as well as to weigh in on this pessimism, but the author of the 3D Policy piece doesn’t have much hope, ending like this:

The federal government clearly has a strong sustainable fiscal structure, thanks to actions taken over the past 20 years, whereas many provinces do not. The federal government is in a position to act and should do so by adopting the recommendations of the IMF and take the lead in financing a new strategy to strengthen potential economic growth.

Is any of this likely to happen? Probably not.  Except for a lot of empty rhetoric from all three parties, a new “built in Canada” growth strategy does not appear to be on the agenda for this election.

It is young Canadians who will suffer the consequences.

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Readers’ wildlife photographs

October 20, 2015 • 7:45 am

Reader Karen Bartelt proclaims it “Reptile Day!”, and so it is. Her photos and captions:

Madagascar Gold Dust Day Gecko (Phelsuma laticauda).  Introduced to Hawaii; picture taken on the Big Island:
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Green iguana (Iguana iguana), breeding plumage.  Near John Pennecamp State Park, Florida.  Another introduced species:
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American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis).  Everglades National Park:
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Northern caiman lizard (Dracena guainensis).  Peruvian Amazon:
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Tuesday: Hili dialogue

October 20, 2015 • 4:48 am

I am home at last, but slept fitfully, and am writing this at 4:30 a.m. This almost always happens when I return after a long trip: there is so much to do! Meanwhile in Dobrzyn, life goes on without me, and the Furry Princess of Poland, who’s apparently been reading her Bible, paraphrases Matthew 4:4:

A: Oh, you are eating your dry food.
Hili: Not by mice alone shall a cat live.

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In Polish:
Ja: O, jesz suchą karmę.
Hili: Nie samymi myszami kot żyje.

Spot the snakes!

October 19, 2015 • 3:01 pm

by Greg Mayer

Late this past summer, I caught a brown snake (Storeria dekayi) at the Root River Environmental Center in Racine, Wisconsin, so that the REC (as it’s known) could put it on display in a terrarium for visitors to see. Although I did not realize it, it was a pregnant female, and she gave birth to a litter of babies within a week. On September 27, the REC staff and I liberated the mother and her offspring behind the building, just a few yards from where the female had been captured. Can you spot the babies? And, how many of them are there?

Baby brown snakes (Storeria dekayi), being released at the REC, Racine, WI, 27 September 2015.
Baby brown snakes (Storeria dekayi), being released at the REC, Racine, WI, 27 September 2015.

Brown snakes feed on earthworms and slugs, and there was an abundant supply at the REC. Here’s a video the staff made of one of the babies feeding on a garden slug.

This is where we released them; the mother was caught about 10 feet to the right of the picture. (The grass and weeds around the spot I caught her had been trimmed, so we released them in denser cover.)

Snake (and slug) habitat behind the REC building, Racine, WI.
Snake (and slug) habitat behind the REC building, Racine, WI.

For the snake counting, we can distinguish an easier headcount (i.e., count them only if you can see their heads), from the total count. Answers, of a sort, in a couple of days.

Does disbelief in free will make people cheat?

October 19, 2015 • 12:15 pm

I’ve posted before about Greg Caruso, a philosophy professor who writes about the down side of believing in free will, including its support of a “just world” view in which people deserve what they get, and so shouldn’t get government help. (Many Republicans hold such a view.) Caruso’s also the author of Free Will and Consciousness: A Determinist Account of the Illusion of Free Will, as well as Science and Religion: 5 Questionsbooks that are on my on my reading list.

Caruso continues his exploration of the social consequences of believing in free will in a new article in Psychology Today, “Does Disbelief in Free Will Increase Anti-Social Behavior?”  The answer has long been “yes,” but that was based on a single article by Vohs and Schooler (reference below), showing that if you “primed” students with readings that either reinforced or denigrated free will, they were more likely to cheat on a subsequent computer test when primed against free will.

The problem with that study is that two attempts to replicate it have failed. One has yet to be published (see here), while the other was part of the recent and widely-cited study in which psychologists replicated 100 experiments published in respected journals. One of the many failures to replicate involved Vohs’ and Schooler’s 2008 paper (see here).

Caruso’s column points out these failures, adds another failure to replicate, and notes other methodological flaws in the Vohs and Schooler paper:

While [Vohs and Schooler’s] findings appear to support concerns over the anti-social consequences of relinquishing free will belief, I advise caution in drawing any universal or sweeping conclusions from them. There are powerful criticisms of the methodology of these studies that put into doubt the supposed connection between disbelief in free will and any long-term increase in anti-social behavior. First of all, the passages used to prime disbelief in free will appear to be priming the wrong thing. Several critics have noted that instead of priming belief in hard determinism or hard incompatibilism (the view that free will is incompatible with determinism and indeterminism), the Crick excerpt subjects read [the anti-free-will prime] is actually priming a scientific reductionist view of the mind, one that is proclaimed to demonstrate that free will is an illusion. Free will skepticism, however, need not entail such a reductionist view and the priming passages may be giving participants the mistaken impression that scientists have concluded that their beliefs, desires, and choice are causally inefficacious—a claim not embraced by most philosophical skeptics.

Secondly, subsequent studies have had a difficult time replicating these findings. Some readers may be familiar with the recent unprecedented attempt to replicate 100 studies published in three of the top psychology journals. Surprisingly, the Reproducibility Project was only able to replicate 35 out of the 100 studies and one of the studies that failed to replicate was the Vohs and Schooler—as highlighted in this recent New York Times article. This, however, was not the first time there have been difficulties replicating these findings. Rolf Zwaan at the University of Rotterdam, for example, attempted to replicate the findings but was unable to do so (see here). Eddy Nahmias and Thomas Nadelhoffer also attempted to replicate the findings and, as Nahmias describes their difficulties (here), “the effects don’t always replicate and they only seem to work with the over-the-top primes that suggest all kinds of threats to agency.” He goes on to say, “no one has shown that telling people they lack just what philosophical…skeptics say they lack and nothing more has any bad effects on behavior or sense of meaning.”

I wasn’t aware of Nahmias and Thomas’s “failure to replicate” (it’s described in a comment by Nahmias on a blog post by Caruso), but it’s good of Nahmias to mention that, as he’s been a big proponent of free will, at least of the compatibilist form.

But let us no longer claim that we have to believe in free will because experiments have shown that it makes us cheat. Even if that were true, cheating on a computer test given immediately after a real prime demonstrates only short-term effects, not ones that last longer than a few hours. Just as we don’t need the illusion of God to be moral, so we don’t need the illusion of free will (or some jerry-rigged compatibilist version) to be honest.

It’s sad, then, that some people still adhere to the belief that we should tell people fictions so they will behave properly. One of those people is described by Caruso:

Saul Smilansky, for example, maintains that our commonplace beliefs in libertarian free will and desert-entailing ultimate moral responsibility are illusions, but he also maintains that if people were to accept this truth there would be wide-reaching negative intrapersonal and interpersonal consequences. According to Smilansky, “Most people not only believe in actual possibilities and the ability to transcend circumstances, but have distinct and strong beliefs that libertarian free will is a condition for moral responsibility, which is in turn a condition for just reward and punishment.” It would be devastating, he warns, if we were to destroy such beliefs: “the difficulties caused by the absence of ultimate-level grounding are likely to be great, generating acute psychological discomfort for many people and threatening morality—if, that is, we do not have illusion at our disposal.” To avoid any deleterious social and personal consequences, then, and to prevent the unraveling of our moral fabric, Smilansky recommends free will illusionism. According to illusionism, people should be allowed their positive illusion of libertarian free will and with it ultimate moral responsibility; we should not take these away from people, and those of us who have already been disenchanted ought to simply keep the truth to ourselves.

That’s the Little People Argument, and it’s condescending and dishonest. (Note that Smilansky is recommending genuine lying: telling people—or not dispelling their misconception—that they have dualistic, libertarian free will.) The best strategy, I think, is to tell people the truth about reality, and then convince them why they still shouldn’t lie, cheat, or exercise retributive punishment.

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Vohs, Kathleen D., and Jonathan W. Schooler. 2008. The value of believing in free will: Encouraging a belief in determinism increases cheating(link is external). Psychological Science 19:49-54.

 

Was Darwin lactose-intolerant?

October 19, 2015 • 11:56 am

by Matthew Cobb

The other week I gave a talk at the Ilkley Literature Festival, about my book Life’s Greatest Secret. It was a great event – although traffic problems meant I was slightly late, despite setting off with 45 minutes leeway – and was sold out!

Ilkley is a lovely town in Yorkshire, surrounded by fantastic hills and a moor which is the subject of a very well known English song (“Ilkley Moor Bar T’At”) which recounts what happens if you go walking on the Moor, and even courting Mary-Jane on the Moor, without your hat on (spoiler: it finishes badly. In worms, then ducks, then the singers of the song…)

This version of the song has the guitar chords, and a transcription, though give it’s still in Tyke, you may have a hard time understanding it:

Anyway, it is a little known fact that when The Origin of Species was published, Darwin was not at Down House in Kent, where he lived, but in Ilkley. I learned this because my talk was chaired by Professor Greg Radick of the University of Leeds. Greg is Professor of History and Philosophy of Science, and in  2009 he wrote a slim book called Darwin in Ilkley, which he co-wrote with a retired Professor of Gastrointestinal Pathology and local historian, Mike Dixon. (It’s available in the US and in the UK on Kindle – you can also read it with the Kindle app on the tablet of your choice).

Darwin was in Ilkley because of the local water-based health cure, and he was in search of relief from his mysterious debilitating illness, which dogged Darwin throughout his life. Radick and Dixon noticed that when Darwin was in Ilkley, eating a reduced dairy diet in the hotel where he was taking the ‘hydropathic cure’, his symptoms abated. When he returned to Down House, his malaise returned.

There’s a lot more to their story than a simple correlation, and if true, it would not only settle an issue that has concerned Darwin’s biographers down the decades – was his disease ‘real’ or psychosomatic, and if it had a recognisable cause, what was it? – it would also add an intriguing coda to the interaction between the man and his science.

Up until a few thousand years ago, humans did not drink milk after weaning and they did not have the necessary enzymes to be able to digest the key part of milk, lactose – they were lactose intolerant. Consuming milk products as adults would have made them ill.

However, in several communities around the world, which had begun to domesticate mammals, mutations arose which enabled some individuals to digest milk throughout their life. Presumably those mutations had occurred repeatedly in evolutionary past, but there was no animal milk to drink (try milking a mammoth!), so no advantage was gained and those mutated genes were not passed down.

Today, there are important parts of the world where lactose intolerance is prevalent – Japan and China, for example, although it is rare (but not at all absent) in Europe and parts of Africa. This map from New Scientist shows the distribution of intolerance:

If you want to know more about lactose intolerance, this New Scientist article is pretty good.

Maybe if Darwin had known, he could have made himself feel a lot happier…

 

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Molly Worthen defends the traditional college lecture

October 19, 2015 • 11:00 am

We all hear that traditional college lectures are on the way out. I don’t know the facts, but I’m told that they’re not nearly as “educational” as “active learning” experiences, in which students use computers or teach each other, or as Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs), in which a professor lectures online and the students take e-tests.  There are presumably data that back up the inferiority of traditional lectures, although I don’t whether the newer learning experiences have been compared to, say, small humanities seminars.

I don’t have strong feelings about this, for if one method teaches students better than another, we should by all means use the best one. And of course MOOCs, like the one on genetics and evolution taught at Duke by my ex-student Mohamed Noor, have brought high-quality education to students who either aren’t near a college or don’t have the substantial dosh it takes to get a regular college education.

But in some ways I mourn the passing of the lecture. Yes, they may bore students, or not teach them what we want, but I suppose I’m being selfish in saying that I’ve always found a good lecture fascinating and entertaining, and, from behind the lectern, it’s simply great fun to try to bring your subject alive.

In Sunday’s New York Times, writer and professor Molly Worthen defended the traditional lecture in a piece called “Lecture me. Really.” It’s a spirited defense of tradition, but in the end the data will tell—and Worthen gives precious little data. What she does give, upfront, is a pretty transparent motivation for her defense:

But there is an ominous note in the most recent chorus of calls to replace the “sage on the stage” with student-led discussion. These criticisms intersect with a broader crisis of confidence in the humanities. They are an attempt to further assimilate history, philosophy, literature and their sister disciplines to the goals and methods of the hard sciences — fields whose stars are rising in the eyes of administrators, politicians and higher-education entrepreneurs.

Now one could take this to mean that scientific demonstrations (i.e., surveys and data) showing that active learning trumps lectures are to be feared—in other words, a cry of “scientism.” But, so it seems, Worthen just feels that the humanities are different in how they get students to learn, and that learning humanities (Worthen teaches history) is best done by traditional lectures. Those lectures, she says, foster a set of skills unattainable by newer methods. What works for science education shouldn’t automatically be transferred to the humanities:

Listening continuously and taking notes for an hour is an unusual cognitive experience for most young people. Professors should embrace — and even advertise — lecture courses as an exercise in mindfulness and attention building, a mental workout that counteracts the junk food of nonstop social media. More and more of my colleagues are banning the use of laptops in their classrooms. They say that despite initial grumbling, students usually praise the policy by the end of the semester. “I think the students value a break from their multitasking lives,” Andrew Delbanco, a professor of American Studies at Columbia University and an award-winning teacher, told me. “The classroom is an unusual space for them to be in: Here’s a person talking about complicated ideas and challenging books and trying not to dumb them down, not playing for laughs, requiring 60 minutes of focused attention.”

I too banned laptops from my required evolution course, for I once watched from the back of the room when my co-teacher lectured, and observed that most students weren’t taking notes on their laptops, but reading email and playing on Facebook. Worthen continues:

. . . [Harvard President] Eliot was a chemist, so perhaps we should take his criticisms [of lectures] with a grain of salt. In the humanities, a good lecture class does just what Newman said: It keeps students’ minds in energetic and simultaneous action. And it teaches a rare skill in our smartphone-app-addled culture: the art of attention, the crucial first step in the “critical thinking” that educational theorists prize.

Fine. Where are the data? Or does Worthen, while abjuring the methods of science teaching, also abjure the need for empirical support of her views?

Worthen goes on to elaborate on the skills that a good lecture imparts—so long as students know how to listen properly, which involves not frenetically taking notes, but listening hard and mentally arguing with the professor as she speaks. Worthen calls this “an exercise in mindfulness and attention building, a mental workout that counteracts the junk food of nonstop social media.” Worthen considers the art of note-taking especially important, for if you do it right, you learn to distill a complex argument to its bare essentials. Such a skill, she says, imparts the lesson that “listening is not the same thing as thinking about what you plan to say next — and that critical thinking depends on mastery of facts, not knee-jerk opinions.”

I have some sympathy for Worthen, for that is exactly how I trained myself to learn as an undergraduate. I limited myself to a half-page of lecture notes per session (except for complicated science courses), and would go over those notes each evening for several hours, trying to reconstruct the lecture from which they came. And I found that technique both fulfilling and instructive—and I did okay in college. Now that I’m on the other side of the lectern, I also follow Worthen’s methods, which she describes as follows:

Holding their attention is not easy. I lecture from detailed notes, which I rehearse before each class until I know the script well enough to riff when inspiration strikes. I pace around, wave my arms, and call out questions to which I expect an answer. When the hour is done, I’m hot and sweaty. A good lecturer is “someone who conveys that there’s something at stake in what you’re talking about,” Dr. Delbanco said. Or as Ms. Severson told me, “I’m a pretty shy person, but when I lecture, there’s a certain charisma. This stuff matters to me — it saved my life.”

This is precisely what I do, and when I lecture I’m pretty much exhausted for the next few hours, covered with sweat and chalk dust and requiring caffeine (I rarely show Powerpoints in science class). But if the lecture went well, I feel great.

But that is a bit self-indulgent. In the end, what really matters is this: which method of instruction is the best way to impart both the knowledge and the learning and thinking skills we want students to acquire? To answer that question, of course, requires data, which in turn requires us to find ways to measure the intangible results we’re hired to promote. Worthen gives no such data, but merely an assertion that the traditional lecture is the best way to teach humanities students how to dissect arguments and think for themselves.

That may well be, but an assertion is just that—an unsupported claim. There may be data backing Worthen’s argument, but I suspect not, or she would have adduced them. From a more self-aggrandizing viewpoint, it might feel a bit dispiriting to be removed from the role of authority figure and entertainer that constitutes the lecturing professor. After all, there are few things as gratifying in academia as having given a good lecture that excites the students and prompts a lot of questions.

Because I was brought up on traditional lectures, from both sides of the podium, I sympathize with Worthen’s views. And she may be right. I’d just like to see the data.

As always, readers are invited to weigh in on this argument.