It’s one of those weeks when I don’t really have a lot to say based on what’s happening, nor any juicy articles to analyze or criticize. Instead, I’d like to start a discussion.
Here’s the question, which could be phrased in several ways: “Does America want Israel to lose the war with Hamas?” Or, “Does the U.S. care much if Israel loses the war?” or, perhaps the least debatable question: “Is the U.S. doing things that will help Hamas win the war?” (I think the answer to the last question is “of course,” though the U.S. may not be doing it with that intention.)
One thing is for sure: if Israel is to win, Hamas must be eliminated and there can be no cease-fire long enough to enable them to resume power. You don’t win a war with terrorists without destroying their organization,
Yet here’s what we see (or rather, what I see)::
- Chuck Schumer is calling for elections to depose Netanyahu, right in the middle of a war. This is us interfering with a democracy, and is inappropriate. I believe Netanyahu, now that the war has begun, is doing a pretty good job. I’m pretty sure he’ll be deposed when the war is over, and I’m not a big fan of his. But to call for his replacement now?
- Israel is allowing as much humanitarian aid into Gaza as arrives; it’s certainly not stopping humanitarian aid. But of course the world thinks otherwise. I’ve never seen a country act this way; certainly during Vietnam the public didn’t demand that we provide humanitarian aid to the North Vietnamese or South Vietnamese civilians fighting us. And in that case the U.S. did very little to avoid killing civilians; indeed, they wiped out whole villages of civilians indiscriminately.
- Biden and many others are demanding that the IDF do not take Rafah (remember, Israel does have a plan to evacuate civilians there). But if Israel doesn’t take Rafah, then Hamas will stay in power for sure.
- During last night in Gaza, the IDF attacked Al-Shifa hospital. Hamas had returned there to resume its occupancy, and fired on Israelis approaching the hospital. During the ensuing fight, many terrorists were killed as well as one IDF soldier, but no civilians were killed. The IDF even brought doctors in case patients needed extra care. Yet the world is baying at what Israel did. How dare they go back into a hospital. Apparently the IDF should have let Hamas take over the hospital, but of course Hamas, in doing so, was committing a war crime. Nobody worries about Hamas’s war crimes, though; once again Israel is held accountable.
- Blinken has proclaimed that it should be Israel’s highest priority to ensure the safety of Palestinian civilians. That’s not what you say to an ally prosecuting a war and already trying to kill as few civilians as possible.
- The death tolls provided all come from Hamas, which doesn’t distinguish between terrorists and real civilians. And “children”, to Hamas, are anybody under 18, which can and does include many members of Hamas. Yet these figures are all taken to represent “civilians.” I suspect, but don’t know, that they include many more terrorists than the media implies.
- The U.S. has blown hot and cold on a ceasefire. If there is a permanent ceasefire now, Israel has lost, for Hamas will regroup, recoup, and take up power in Gaza again, as well as continuing to steal aid sent for humanitarian reasons
- The U.S. has floated the idea that postwar Gaza should be governed by the Palestinian Authority, one of the craziest ideas I’ve ever heard. The P.A. is a corrupt, Jew-hating, and terrorist-promoting organization, still handing out money to terrorists who kill Jews—the “pay for slay” program.
- Americans are touting the two-state idea as a “solution.” It is not a solution—at least not right now. It is a recipe for more enmity and killing. Palestine never wanted it (it wants one state run by Arabs), and now Israel doesn’t want it, either. Only the addle-brained thinks that this will bring peace.
And, of course, we hear little from anybody about the war crimes or perfidies of Hamas. Americans seem willing to exchange 1,000 Palestinian terrorists in Israeli jails for what must be now only about 100 hostages. Does anybody think about whether that’s a fair deal? Further, all the news about casualties we read in the news comes from Hamas, but is presented as “the facts.”
These matters make me wonder what the deuce the U.S. intends by behaving this way. What does it want? You may respond that Israel, on its side, has no plan for how to deal with postwar Gaza, and perhaps that’s true, though I’m pretty sure this is an object of serious discussion in the war cabinet. But Job One is for Israel to win the war, and it can do that only by taking Rafah and, as it does so, kill as few civilians as possible. (Of course we see little in the media about the Hamas strategy of trying to get Palestinians killed to sway world opinion. People who think that Hamas is desperate to prevent the killing of Palestinian civilians are simply wrong. Part of Hamas’s strategy is to gain the world’s sympathy by getting its own civilians killed and then calling attention to that.)
In the end, does the U.S. not want Israel to win this war, or achieve only a partial victory, if that’s even possible? Sure, Biden, conscious of the votes he needs from young pro-Palestinian Americans as well as Muslim-Americans, is constantly hedging his bets, but all the points above have not only baffled me, but, as someone on Israel’s side, produced a real emotional and political roller-coaster ride.
Discuss!
Two thoughts.
First: Pay attention to what the various actors do, and less what they say. I am given to understand that Israelis grok perfectly well that Biden’s domestic political concerns may require him to issue rhetoric that sounds bad–but what really matters is what he does. And on that front, he has gone above and beyond what they could have expected.
Second: My indispensable source for understanding what’s going on in Israel week to week is Dan Senor’s podcast. Two of the last three episodes (March 12 and March 18) are almost entirely about exactly the questions you ask, with respect to how the American politics are playing out and what they mean in real-world terms for Israel. They feature well-informed, well-connected guests. I wish transcripts were available for the podcast-averse, but sadly, they’re not. Still, well worth a listen, IMHO. https://www.dansenor.com/podcast
Thanks for the tip re: Dan Senor’s podcast. I used to listen to it, but not lately.
+1
Yes, thanks for the link and your sage advice to watch actions more than to listen to talk. You’ve helped right my ship
FWIW Apple’s podcasts app now has transcripts & they seem comprehensive for the show you linked to.
Nice to know. Thanks.
Chris Gorman: I have never used Apple’s podcast app (I’m on Spotify). But I tried it just now on my iPad, found the app, found the Call Me Back podcast, but I’m not seeing any transcript or link to transcripts. What am I missing?
Ah–never mind. I found the problem. Apparently this is a brand-new feature, and I had not updated my iOS to the latest version. I did that, and now I see the little transcript button on the player.
I just finished reading an excellent book – “The Grand Delusion” by Steven Simon -which provides an insider’s account of US relations in the Middle East from the end of the Yom Kippur war to the beginning of the Biden presidency (it ends before October 7). Before answering the questions posed here, I strongly recommend reading it. The key takeaways for me were that a) the intersections of all the regional rivalries and animosities makes navigation by the US incredibly difficult; b) over the time in question, the two US strategic aims of securing the futures of Israel and Saudi Arabia have been overall successful, and c) the bottom line US strategic strategic interest continues to wane relative to Europe and Asia. I would very much like to read the author’s response to October 7 – it certainly upset many mainstream assumptions – but to me the important question is whether this (or any) administration implementing policies that are both in our enlightened self-interest AND in the interest of pursing overall stability (including for Israel) in the Middle East.
What the U.S. government run by the Democratic Party wants is very simple, that is, the complete withdrawal of Israel from Gaza. I believe that it does contain elements of anti-Western and anti-white ideology, because Israel’s failure can become another positive example of people of color defeating white people. of course it doesn’t matter what Jews think, just like it doesn’t matter what white evangelicals (one of the most pro-Jewish groups in the United States) want to support Israel, it’s just that most American Jews have rejected and even denigrated it over the past few decades. I bet that even if the Democratic Party introduced a completely anti-Semitic presidential candidate, most American Jews would still vote for the Democratic Party.
As for suggestions? American Jews must make it clear that if the Democratic Party refuses to suppress internal anti-Semitic and even anti-white sentiments (the basis of modern anti-Semitism on the left), they will not vote for the Democratic Party and will vote for explicitly pro-Israel candidates, including evangelical politicians.
I don’t think I agree with your first and last sentence.
Our public library has the book you mentioned. I just put it on hold. Thanks.
It’s unclear to me if the Biden Administration is just trying to pander to the regressive Left, or if they are philosophically anti-Israel. On so many issues that Administration seems to be supporting and championing regressive policies that I suspect they are now anti-Israel, and what minimal support they are giving is in order to placate moderates.
Agree.
+1
I don’t think that you’d find John Fetterman prominently supporting Israel if that was the case.
There should be no confusion on this. Biden has a decades-long track record of strong support for Israel. It’s almost impossible to imagine a stronger response from a US president: Sending two aircraft carrier groups to the region, publicly telling Lebanon and Hezbollah, “Don’t even think about it,” defending Israel in the UN against all the calumny being lobbed there, and personally flying to Israel during a hot war. I do not believe any other president in my lifetime (62 years) would have done as much.
And, yet, he keeps pushing cease-fires and supports Schumer when he call for new elections against Netanyahu. And this port for Gaza lark? That IS going to require boots on the ground, so now we’ll have American troops protecting part of Gaza. With friends like these. . . .
It will be UNRWA that mediates between the US suppliers, and the Gazans. Yeah, I know the issue with that.
It is all pandering. Who would want our only ally against our greatest enemies weakened and made to live with and near terrorists? Hamas has one major goal. The destruction of the Israeli nation. Ironically, they also have the destruction of the USA as a major goal. And here you have the creepy cadaver doing everything in his power to accommodate Hamas.
The only answer is that this is typical Biden politics. Pander, pander, pander. Give money to students, knowing the law won’t pass. Give billions to his “climate agenda,” then don’t spend the money, etc. (we have had 1 of 500,000 charging stations built) which doesn’t bother me, but it is the same nonsense. They have been spending time finding politically correct companies to get the contracts. A blind black, lesbian in a wheelchair as owner or CEO would be a shoo-in.
What is so politically dumb here is that the people he panders to, i.e., defund the police, open borders, trans ideology, Climate fear mongers, etc. are only about 20% of the population. He needs a calculator. He has to go.
Umm. . . .I don’t like the bit about the “blind black lesbian being a shoo-in”. Please curb that kind of exaggeration or vitreol. And if you are saying that you want Biden to go in favor of Trump, I’m against you 100%.
You know I voted for Biden as the least woke, partly because I don’t agree with a lot of it, and partly because I thought he would most likely win against Trump. I think Craig has a point. Everybody knows the border is not working and most people, including Hispanics want something done about it. President Obama was labeled the deporter-in-chief, he still got reelected. The Republicans are using the border to stop Ukraine funding which is wrong but it could have been used as a way for Democrats to not shoot themselves in the foot. He could have taken away the open borders issue and secured Ukraine. And it seems that Trump has a good chance of reelection.
Biden has betrayed and hurt Ukraine so badly that, despite Trump’s professed love to Putin, I start to think that he might be the lesser evil.
I would like to hear more about the quiet attitude of some Arab states that Malgorzata mentioned last week. That none of those with diplomatic ties to Israel: Egypt, Jordan, UAE and at least one other have broken those as a result of Israel’s fighting back.
Also about the things that were under way from talks between Egypt and Israel (and Jordan too?) before Oct 7, that in some analyses was the real impetus for Oct 7 – that Hamas struck because it saw that as a threat to its corrupt empire.
There must be an Arab faction that is sick of all of this crap and wants to become part of the rest of the world. Are there others besides the ones who have diplomatic ties with Israel?
Suddenly, there are plenty of Saudi Arabia products in Israeli shops. This might be a clue.
Very interesting. Another key insight! Thanks! (As long as this isn’t a means of smuggling explosives etc into Israel at the same time.)
I just found this in https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/20507/gaza-war-israel-schumer:
Syrian journalist Ghassan Ibrahim, founder of Global Arab Network, recently wrote:
“If all the Arab countries had signed peace with Israel in the time of [slain Egyptian President Anwar] Sadat, today we would be busy with economic and technological competition instead of a gang like Hamas or Hezbollah controlling the fate of the region.”
Might be a good time to be glad that Saudi Arabia is not a democracy.
The monarchies / dictators need to pander to their “Arab Street” much more than Biden needs to pander to his “progressives”; it’s a literal matter of life and death for them. IMO, the Arab Street is paved with dumb-as-rocks, and that’s not going to change anytime soon.
“There must be an Arab faction that is sick of all of this crap and wants to become part of the rest of the world. Are there others besides the ones who have diplomatic ties with Israel?”
I’m pretty sure, that many Arabs in leadership positions are fed up and would rather have good economic ties with Israel. However, those Arabs often have legitimacy issues and the population is relatively poor and take solace from Islam – which gives them a.. uhm.. simplistic view of the Jews and their state. So the leaders have to pander to them, lest someone else rouses the population. Egypt was inching toward an Islamic state with the Muslim brotherhood in charge. Should a monarch decide to be buddies with the Jews, populists could use that to overthrow. Thus they rather keep power, even if means they must make suboptimal choices.
In my opinion the US (taken as a whole) is comfortable with the idea that “there’s always strife in the Mideast” and wants Israel to both win and lose the war enough that things can go back to normal — though with some terrorists “on both sides” punished. October 7th was just another skirmish in an ongoing battle unlikely to ever end for good, but also unlikely to make any real difference to either side.
At least, that’s my guess on what the American Public is assuming.
In agreeing with all the points made, and looking for a deeper explanation of the oblivion to them in the world …
Woke is loud. Media gives them airtime and cred. TicToc is enormous in bending the minds of youngest generations toward a misguided over-empathy which wipes out reason and facts.
Yet, combining 9 million citizens of Israel and 330 million USA, 80% support the points made in this post. Woke is trying to create a GeorgeFloydIncident.
What is behind Woke? Marx. I know I keep saying that and get labeled for it, but Islam is rooted in the same hatred of capitalism and The West as Marxism. They are savage in their resentment in the success of capitalism. They are playing an end-game.
+1
I neglected to write my last line and QED ….
… and Israel is a successful nation, free and prosperous, a proud example of “The West” and capitalism.
+1
John, I am going to label you also as a person who equates Marxism and wokeness.
The label:Someone who has logic and sees what is happening. He also understands the subtle nuances of the methodical brainwashing of our citizens, especially the youth.
Vermont has a new program called “Let’s grow kids.” Run by leftists, they want every child under 5 to be raised by them during working hours for mom and dad. Not too subtle.
This post is a good reason (to me) for a new button – “subscribe to all”.
I was wondering if that is in any plan.
Biden has a two-state solution, it’s called “Michigan and Minnesota”; the administration understands that it is losing the moderate/independent vote and needs “every other” vote it can get/find – it’s willing to sacrifice moral clarity for it.
Biden, Blinken, Schumer and the administration have veered far left (rather, “lunatic left”) and will continue to do so as the election draws nearer. Yes, the aid to Israel is still flowing, but so is the direct/indirect enabling of Iran and its proxies.
The Biden administration is supporting Israel, even as it supports terror (via proxy). It’s surreal. Our tax $$$ are paying for the bipolar horror show.
Israel’s first priority is to safeguard the lives of her people and Schumer has no business bullying/pressuring Israel to “evict” Netanyahu. The insult is doubly abhorrent because both Blinken and Schumer are jewish. I find the behavior disgusting and cynical.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/schumer-is-a-friend-of-israel-but-he-made-a-mistake-in-calling-for-elections-gantz-says/
“War cabinet minister Benny Gantz calls Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer a “friend of Israel who helps us a lot, including recently, but he made a mistake in his speech” calling for elections in Israel to replace Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
“Israel is a strong democracy, and only its citizens will determine its leadership and future. Any external intervention in the matter is incorrect and unacceptable,” Gantz tweets.
Does the Biden administration want Israel to lose? I don’t think the Biden administration particularly cares, like the rest of the far left, it’s become far more important to modify Title IX to accommodate gender ideology (bound to happen sometime over the next couple weeks, forcing institutions to accommodate males in female sports and more) and double down on DEI than to stick with a coherent and laudable foreign policy supporting Israel in both action and words.
Gross.
NOTE: THIS IS FROM GREG, NOT JERRY
What does “winning” mean? Although IDF casualties seem to be much lighter than I expected, it is stuck in grinding urban guerilla warfare where its technical and training advantages are minimized, especially against a foe that will accept any level of civilian casualties– indeed, a foe that seems to welcome them. No matter how much Hamas exaggerates civilian losses, there are enough verifiable losses to score major propaganda victories.
An in-and-out ground engagement might have worked, but Netanyahu foresees a long ground war, which necessitates a long occupation. Occupying a hostile population rarely turns out well; it tends to degrade both occupiers and occupied. (See the history of the Greeks under the Ottomans.)
I see no possibility of handing off the occupation to a third power or powers– who would do it? In Lebanon 40 years ago, the West was a plausible intervenor because of the large Christian and Francophile population that existed at the time– but it still didn’t work. Iraq has sort of worked because there are enough Kurds and Sunnis to maintain a sort of balance of power. Afghanistan sort of worked for awhile after major combat operations by the US ended, because a few thousand American troops were enough to stiffen the spine of the Tajik and other anti-Taliban elements. (Until, of course, the US withdrew). I don’t see any plausible occupation force: Jordanian troops, say, backed by UAE money, would not be welcomed by anyone in Gaza.
Many of the criticisms of the IDF are off base (some way off). But war is an extension of politics, and Hamas is playing its political cards well. It is of course benefiting from many retrograde tendencies in Western countries, such as the SJP; but recall that before Pearl Harbor America had an active German-American Bund.
An extended urban war with a subsequent occupation is very much against Israel’s best interests. It is this strategy that Biden has been trying to talk the Israelis out of. I was hoping that the IDF had some clever military strategy in mind, but despite winning essentially every encounter on the battlefield, as the US did in Vietnam, Israel is losing the war politically.
GCM
(Jerry and I have discussed the war previously, so he will already be familiar with many of my points here.)
From Jerry: So what is your view on what Israel should have done after October 7. Nothing? Or strike Palestine from the air, killing more civilians and inspiring more opprobrium of Israel?
There’s a dearth of suggestions here as opposed ot criticism.
From Greg: Israel, of course, had to and was entitled to respond. From what I can see in the media, it has responded lawfully. But fighting a just war that adheres to the laws of war is not enough. I mentioned in my comment the possibility of a short term ground engagement– as I said, I was hoping the IDF had some clever strategy in mind. Israel needs a strategy that leads to long term success, and this is what is not in evidence. Success is not the long-term occupation of a hostile population from which insurgency will sprout and resprout.
GCM
Obviously, the solution is that we all become Bible thumping born agains and then we could celebrate the “fact” that, finally, the end of the world is near and we will all be saved!
I’m kidding. I’m KIDDING!
U.S. foreign policy at the moment must be understood in the context of domestic politics, especially the looming election in November. The left wing of the Democratic Party is overtly hostile to Israel, and Biden and other erstwhile moderates feel, rightly or wrongly, that they cannot afford to alienate the “progressives.” So to put it succinctly, the Biden Administration’s message to Israel is “Cut it out! You’re embarrassing me! I’ve got an election to win!” Whether Hamas might survive to launch another genocidal attack on Israel doesn’t even enter into the calculus.
Solution?
Without saying a word, Israel ought to rule Gaza. After destroying Hamas, Israel will “have” Gaza, right? Well, don’t relinquish it, period. Retain fierce military and civil control of the Gaza strip. The ‘world’ will scream. Let it.
Let a Palestinian leader emerge with a secular constitution in hand, and let a negotiation develop for gradual statehood. Call on the 400 million Arabs.Muslims to pour money into the new country. Jews should move into Gaza.
NO MORE “EthnoStates.”
Israel has to stay in control to assure the new state is disarmed, as USA did to Japan for generations.
EDIT to add: some entrepreneur (Elon?) should convert the tunnels into a rapid transit system
+1
Yes, why not? And, nice idea about the tunnels.
I think this is probably the right take, I wrote in another thread that Gaza needs to be occupied for like 20-30+ years in order to put in place the institutions required to actually manage peaceful governance of the territory. Israel definitely needs to reform the education system and even probably have some influence over what is being preached in the mosques in order to stamp out the perpetual hate machine.
Yeah, the world will scream but eventually they’d forget about it and move on…
One gets the impression for some time that Biden is trying to play two tunes. One – which we hear about mostly – is where he frequently makes all of these admonitions to Israel about how they should hold back, be more careful, and have a cease fire + other calls that would in effect assure a Hamas victory of sorts. This I think is to pay lip service to those on the left who will be deciding to vote (or not) come next November. But meanwhile he is supporting all aid to Israel and at times assuring Israel of our full support. That is the other tune where he is signaling to Israel (and to American Jews, political moderates, and to other listeners in the Middle East), that we are not about to change our policy and our unwavering support toward that great democracy in that part of the world.
He also buttressing Iran, aiding terror by proxy.
I haven’t seen any better suggested plan than what the Elder of Ziyon blogger proposed, which Jerry too talked up a little while back. Turn Gaza into an Emirate of the UAE…
“There is a lot of money in the Gulf to rebuild Gaza – but no one wants to spend a dime if there is a chance that Israel will destroy the new buildings in a few years, virtually a guarantee if Hamas or a successor has a role there. But Israel would fully support the UAE’s ambitions for Gaza. It will never attack an ally.
A Gaza emirate instantly converts Gaza from an enemy to a friend. Isn’t that what everyone dreams of? Besides those who want to destroy Israel, that is.
Moreover, the UAE has been negotiating with an Israeli firm to build a “land bridge” of trucks from the Port of Dubai to Israeli ports to bypass the Red Sea and the Houthis for shipping to Europe. If the UAE were to build a port in Gaza, it could be on both ends of the shipping traffic.
The UAE is uniquely positioned to turn the Gaza lemons into lemonade. This is the real reward for the Abraham Accords – a port on the Mediterranean, access to gas reserves off Gaza, and the opportunity to solve the Gaza quagmire not just for a few years but forever.
It is easy to poke holes in any idea, especially one as out of the box as this one. The political obstacles are formidable. But can anyone suggest anything that is better? Or one that could be expected to last for decades?
This plan is a win for Israel, a win for the UAE, a win for Gazans, a win for Egypt, and a win for the West that wants to solve the Middle East crisis. It is a real solution, and a permanent one.”
https://elderofziyon.blogspot.com/2024/01/the-emirate-of-palestine-uae-is-key-for.html?
Just a note since you touched on gas reserves off Gaza. They sound like a lot, but I learned when I dug into this a couple wks ago that they’re only about 2% of what Israel has, and are about equal to the reserves of one field that is currently capped, untapped, or whatever the correct terminology is.
But becoming an emirate sounds like a great solution.
The plan looks like it would keep Iran out of the loop, which I think should interest Saudi Arabia. They have to clamp down on Jihadists, but they (Saudi Arabia) have a history of doing that when it suits them, so I have read.
+1
This idea is being floated around many circles, and why not? It’s a good one. It makes sense and it would (yes) eliminate Iran from the equation.
The main problem with this idea is the people on the ground. Who is going to actually enforce law and order on the ground and prevent resentment towards the new overloads away in the UAE from festering and turning to terrorism?
Sure if you had law an order rigidly enforced on the ground you could make this work and I think Israel would support it but it relies upon a large and well armed security force from the UAE being sent in to actually ensure peace and security.
This is all the more reason for Israel to become less dependent on US and any other foreign aid. I am not saying that Israel has not done a great job on its own defense, but that it needs to continue down this road of military technology independence from the US. It cannot count on the fickleness and waning international influence of the West.
That could help. But wouldn’t they need some sort of natural wealth, like oil or other resources, to finance a wider military industrial complex? I am not aware of any such resources for Israel.
Singapore and Hong Kong have no natural wealth, just human capital.
There’s nothing in the Arab world remotely like Singapore or Hong Kong. What material success they’ve had comes from oil.
Israel I don’t think of as being in the “Arab world”.
https://www.mediaite.com/media/candace-owens-endorses-wild-anti-semitic-conspiracy-theory-about-jews-being-drunk-on-christian-blood/
There’s some very strange ideas floating around. The crazy fringe is very active since Oct 7.
Daniel Pipes, no amateur in this field, contends that there is at least a reasonable possibility that Israel could organize a post-war administration of Gaza by anti-Hamas Gazans. This would require Israeli military protection, at least for a time. It might (who knows?) evolve into something more independent, in effect a substitute for the PA. Pipes presents these ideas in the segment from ~5 min to ~20 min of a longer discussion at:
https://jcpa.org/video/the-day-after-the-war-ends-options-and-a-recommendation/
I agree, mostly. No easy answers to this war. Hamas has to be eliminated, but how to do that without harming civilians is the big problem. I still to think that a two-state solution is the only answer that can solve this in the long run. Yes, Hamas has never been for this–by their charter, they’re only for a one-state solution under them. I still believe that there are Palestinians, mainly in the West Bank, who would opt for a true two-states of Israel and a real Palestinian state, if that would mean long term peace, though I certainly don’t know anybody who’s directly involved on either side who could confirm this. For such a solution to happen, it couldn’t if only the Israelis and the Palestinians were involved–it would have to be driven by outside powers such as the USA, maybe other Western Nations, and other Arab states.
At the risk of oversimplifying, my thinking is that the U.S. wants Israel to win the war and get rid of Hamas, BUT (and this is the problem) it wants Israel to win in a way that doesn’t risk the U.S. administration’s support from the left and its relationships with the international commmunity.
As I’ve said before, the Biden administration is bobbing and weaving to both support Israel and keep its political base. Hence, out of one side of its mouth we hear that “Israel has the right and obligation to defend itself,” and out of the other side we hear that “We oppose Israel going into Rafah without a plan to protect civilians.” And out of the third side of its mouth—even *with* a plan, as the Israeli war cabinet claims it has—the U.S. “Hasn’t yet *seen* the plan, so still can’t approve a mission into Rafah.”*
As I say, the Biden administration wants Israel to win the war, but not in a way that will alienate his voters. Sadly, this is how our political system works, and Israel is both a beneficiary and a victim.
Israel must remain faithful to its own interests, and not let foreign pressures determine the outcome of this war.
*In fairness, those are not direct quotes, but they are close. I’m not representing what I’ve read.
I agree with your analysis. What I don’t understand, however, is why the Biden administration isn’t calling loudly and daily for Hamas to surrender and release their hostages. It seems to me that has no political negatives in the US. Am I missing something?
Yes, I’ve always wondered about that. I suppose one response might be that, since Israel went into Gaza and civilians have died, many Americans are on the side of Hamas and simply can’t tolerate civilian casualties.
What does the U.S. want with Israel?
If by the U.S. we mean the Biden administration, I think it’s conflicted. It doesn’t explicitly want Israel to lose (although there will be some in the government who quietly do), but it also wants to virtue signal to the pro-Palestinian lobby. I don’t see the situation being reached in which necessary materiel is withheld from Israel, at least this side of the election. In the meantime, it’s going to be a messy tightrope walk between actions and words.
Edited to add that Norman had expressed the conflicted nature of the administration more clearly than myself and I only saw his comment after posting my own.
So, here is what a left-wing substacker thinks…I believe he has a notable following…
“Israel’s Trojan Horse
The “temporary pier” being built on the Mediterranean coast of Gaza is not there to alleviate the famine, but to herd Palestinians onto ships and into permanent exile.”
https://chrishedges.substack.com/p/israels-trojan-horse
Out of this world.
There’s no reasoning with the far-left (nor the far right).
Where does he think the Palestinians will be exiled to? After they are herded onto ships?
They could be put down into small boats out at sea and left to fend for themselves, as North Vietnam did to the Boat People after it liberated the South. Those who washed up on foreign beaches could claim political asylum and could eventually make their way to Marseilles or Dearborn. I don’t think for a moment that this is what Israel intends, of course, but that is how the Left-wing Substacker might be thinking, looking to his favourite Peoples’ Republics for inspiration.
There was a video posted here a week or so ago, showing a market supposedly in Gaza that was open (and thus Gaza is hardly starving to death). It looked like a vendor with a lot of spices and such. I can’t remember if it was in a post or a comment, but if anyone remembers that, has that been verified?
I’m beginning to recall that the timestamp on the video was March 8.
I wonder what the total cost of the conflict -including lost economic activity over the next few years- will be for Israel. It’s going to be at least $100 billion. That’s enough money to make every Gazan family rich, and convince the Arab countries to take them in. If there was a referendum in Gaza about this proposal, my bet is that it would be accepted by a large majority.
The title question is “What does the US want with Israel”.
It seems to me, that they want rather little. During the Cold War, Israel was the bastion of the West against Soviet influence in the region. After the Cold War, Israel was the foot in the door in the region that held the oil. Now with the US oil independence, there are historic and domestic reasons to support Israel, but once the domestic reasons swing the other way, Israel has become an issue the US wants to distance itself from. The US focus has long shifted from Europe and the Middle East to Asia and the Pacific. Hence its dithering on Ukraine as well. “Doing the right thing” is much easier, when it directly serves strategic foreign interests.
Pure cristalline analysis. What left zionists like me should contemplate is an alliance of liberal Iranians, Kurds and Jews. Forty years of theocratic tyranny has produce a growing pro Israel sentiment in Iran and its diaspora. The alliance would have to start in the diaspora communities of those groups
“Sure, Biden, conscious of the votes he needs from young pro-Palestinian Americans as well as Muslim-Americans, is constantly hedging his bets”
I’m not sure you have to look any further than this to explain the shit-show of Biden Administration policy at the moment.
The U.S. is conflicted. First it (Biden) supported Israel in its effort to eliminate Hamas, a dire threat. But there was politics and dissent. Now Biden wants the war to end, and to win back some sympathizers with Palestinians, fearing he’ll lose the election. Fear of election loss has overcome desire to support Israel in its justified response to outrage that no nation should endure, ever. (PS the U.S. should support its friend, doubly because Israel is right. Sadly, Palestinians have made their bed.)
Perhaps because I haven’t yet surrendered hope that a shred of human decency still resides in Washington DC, I don’t believe that any of the key players in the Biden Administration or the senior leadership in Congress want to see Israel “lose.” What they appear to want is for Israel to be safe, for no more innocent people to die, and for no sizeable number of Palestinians to be aggrieved with the results. We can call this the land of magical thinking. Part of it arises from a surfeit of empathy; most of it is sheer ignorance.
Some here have suggested that it is something else, that we should watch what our politicians do rather than listen to what they say. What, our politicians and other government officials don’t believe the stupid things that they say? Let’s rephrase that: the words of our political leadership are not to be trusted. How’s that work? We can call it pandering. We can call it “talking out of both sides of the mouth.” We can call it being attune to domestic politics and constituencies. Let’s call it what it is: dishonesty. That’s the old-fashioned term for saying something that you do not believe because you want to deceive some people into thinking that you mean what you say. And then you wink and nod at the knowing crowd. Later, you can point to either your words or your actions, whichever is convenient, to assert your “true” position. Some here have far more confidence than do I in trying to discern the “true” policy positions of dishonest people.
A thought: It has been some time now since we have had leaders in Washington DC who endured the Great Depression, who served together during WW2. Social trials like these can focus the attention; they can recalibrate for an entire generation the difference between “important” and “nice to do or have.” There is something about serving and fighting together that can create strong personal bonds across party lines. I wonder whether similar bonds are being forged in Israel today, whether our leadership is seriously misreading the Israeli population. The Israelis have had their 9/11 moment rolled in with their Pearl Harbor: I expect that they will remain hawkish for some time to come, and that they will set aside preexisting political strife to focus on this mission—and they will rightly ignore Biden and his minions.
+1
Excellent comment.
I don’t share your (faltering) optimism re: DC. I also don’t think the Biden administration is serious about Israel winning the war. If it were, it wouldn’t be buttressing Iran by approving sanctions waivers for that nation.
Quote:
“Just six weeks after an Iran-backed drone strike killed three American soldiers in Jordan, President Biden has approved a sanctions waiver giving Tehran continued access to more than $10 billion — money it can use to import goods and repay debts, freeing up $10 billion elsewhere to spend on terrorism, missiles, nuclear weapons and the repression of Iranian women.”
https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2024/03/14/biden-continues-irans-access-to-10-billion-just-weeks-after-its-proxy-killed-three-american-soldiers/
Money is fungible, Biden appears indifferent to reality.
Re: the Israeli population:
From what I read, and from my conversations with jewish friends both in Israel and out, it appears that the jewish population is coalescing around a common goal: defeating Hamas and ensuring the safety of the nation’s residents. I wouldn’t call the aspiration Hawkish, it’s common sensical.
Survival is a worthy goal.