Thursday: Hili dialogue

November 30, 2023 • 3:39 am

by Matthew Cobb

PCC(E) is off for some much-needed R&R so posting will be light/non-existent today and tomorrow.

As winter approaches, Hili, like all cats, is wary:

A: Why are you so suspicious?
Hili: I heard the weather forecast.
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In Polish:
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Ja: Czemu jesteś taka podejrzliwa?
Hili: Słuchałam prognozy pogody.
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You will probably have seen that Henry Kissinger has died, aged 100. As Tom Lehrer said, (the precise words vary on the internet): ‘Political satire became obsolete when Henry Kissinger was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.’
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However, Kissinger may have been responsible for what was probably the only good thing that President Nixon ever did. In November 1969, Nixon unexpectedly and unilaterally discontinued the US biological warfare programme; within two years Us bioweapon stockpiles were destroyed. These weapons all used existing microbes to infect humans or animals and were of the kind that had been developed during and after the second World War (the Japanese used them and Churchill was keen on the idea, ordering 500,000 anthrax bombs from the United states). In 1972 the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) was created and eventually signed by eighty-five nations including the United states and the Soviet Union, coming into force in 1975.
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There are many problems with the BWC (it is toothless and did not prevent the USSR from developing terrifying bioweapons, and probably other countries too – including the USA and Israel. But it was still a step forward.
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One factor behind this still unexplained decision (Nixon did not refer to it in his memoirs) may have been the friendship between Kissinger, who was Nixon’s National security Advisor and Matthew Meselson, molecular biologist and long-time opponent of biological warfare.
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For more about this, see Dyson, F. (2003), New York Review of Books, 13 February 2003. And my book on genetic engineering, AS GODS (in the USA) and THE GENETIC AGE (in the UK and elewhere).
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Feel free to chat away BTL about Kissinger, anniversaries, or whatever  you want.

44 thoughts on “Thursday: Hili dialogue”

  3. Important to note, very concise, thank you.

    [ … typity typity click ]

    OH, “Below the line”, that makes sense.

        1. Collective-action problems are insoluble when some actors can profitably cheat with impunity, and so do, beggaring the co-operators who are played for fools. Insoluble problems are simply facts of life. Therefore they cannot be “important” any more than that it is “important” that I will die some day.

          An important problem is one that I can mitigate by taking specific action, like having saved wisely for my retirement, or raising my children responsibly, or doing my job diligently and prudently.

          1. Ah, the argument for business as usual?
            The argument that dooms everyone. The answer is simple – collective rules we all abide by.

            I am sure you will have some come back to that, but there is clearly no point in me trying to convince you.

          2. I wonder, if you apply this logic to all collective-action problems where actors can profitably cheat.

            Relationship fidelity is the first that comes to mind. Do you also throw up your hands and proclaim that cheating spouses are a simple fact of life and one has to just accept it?

            Edit: dom beat me to it. While I agree, that it’s unlikely for Leslie to be convinced, I think push back is valuable. If there is no cognitive dissonance, one can comfortably rest in a position that dooms our children even more than they already are.

          3. @Thrombocyte,
            This is not to argue about climate change. (Thank D*g.) But it’s important to be clear on what collective-action problems are. The hallmark is that the cheater profits off the other player’s fidelity and both players are thereby incented to cheat. That doesn’t happen in unfaithful relationships. The faithful spouse doesn’t repair her loss at the expense of the wayward spouse by deciding to cheat in retaliation. In a CAP she would. In a marriage she just gets revenge and might undermine her divorce claim, depending on local law.

            The simplest example of a true CAP is a joint chequing account between two (or more) parties who have no shared incentive to co-operate. Rather, they all aim to loot the account before the other ones do, hastening the ruin of all. There are two ways to prevent this:

            1) open joint bank accounts only with people you have a deep trust bond and shared goals with* (which common sense says we do only in committed romantic dyadic relationships. Not even relationships between siblings or between aged parents and adult children meet this test.) …

            or 2) appoint a neutral incorruptible guardian who must approve cheques on the account written by either co-owner but does not have withdrawal privileges himself.** (Applied to climate change this would mean a One World Governing Sovereign who had state military powers to enforce Dom’s “simple — collective rules” but was not himself a state actor with a stake in the game. In our world of post-colonial nation-states this would have to be a powerful imperial alien from Mars able to terrify us into obeying the rules.)

            My reference to climate change as a CAP is not to say that CAPs don’t lead to disaster. They absolutely do. The difficulty is breaking out of a CAP when the other actors are pretending to co-operate but are in truth cheating, showing that they don’t really value the shared purpose they claim to support. After all, let us allow for the moment that an unfaithful romantic relationship really is a CAP. If your partner cheats, your rational response is to exit the relationship, no? It’s not rational to stay in a CAP where you are being taken advantage of. (And clean out the joint chequing account before you slip out the back, Jack.)
            —————
            * “Let us be lovers, we’ll marry our fortunes together
            I’ve got some real estate here in my bag.”
            — Paul Simon, “America”
            ** Yes, you could require both (instead of either) signatures on the cheques but this could be awkward to arrange and becomes impractical if there are many co-owners of the account, if all must sign.

          4. @Leslie
            Collective Action Problems are not too uncommon. I see monogamy as one, since both spouses gain from cheating (at least from an evolutionary perspective – the male gets to father additional offspring, the female gets increased genetic diversity for her offspring) and both spouses gain from the fidelity of the other (the male profits by not raising someone else’s child and the female profits by not having time/resources of the male diverted to potential other children).

            Basic property rights are also a collective action problem, since one could take the other’s stuff by force. Yet we have implemented systems to limit ourselves and regulate the behavior of the group. You mention divorce claims yourself. They didn’t come about, because people threw their hands up and went “Whelp, cheaters gonna cheat. Nothing you can do about it. So it’s not an important problem.”

            Your initial post claimed that CAPs “cannot be ‘important'” and implied that there are not actions you can take to mitigate the climate problem. Yet there are.
            In the case of climate change, you can change your behavior to add less to the problem and you come down harder on those that ‘cheat’. If a country would face massive climate tariffs for cheating, the calculus of incentives would change. If energy is more expensive, incentives to grow prosperity in a less energy intensive way grow. Yes, we in the “first world” would have to take a hit on living standards. No doubt about that. But from where I stand, we have been growing on borrowed environmental resources and it’s now payback time.
            What is the alternative? Rearm and force others to bear the climate consequences? That would reduce our standard of living as well.

          1. While I don’t agree with the conclusion of the blog post, I think it does an excellent job of stating the problem.

            Thank you for sharing it.

  5. Oops, caught out by the early arrival of today’s Hili.

    On this day (Part 1):
    1786 – The Grand Duchy of Tuscany, under Pietro Leopoldo I, becomes the first modern state to abolish the death penalty (later commemorated as Cities for Life Day).

    1803 – The Balmis Expedition starts in Spain with the aim of vaccinating millions against smallpox in Spanish America and Philippines.

    1872 – The first-ever international football match takes place at Hamilton Crescent, Glasgow, between Scotland and England.

    1936 – In London, the Crystal Palace is destroyed by fire.

    1939 – World War II: The Soviet Red Army crosses the Finnish border in several places and bomb Helsinki and several other Finnish cities, starting the Winter War. [The Finns have just closed the border after Russia began channelling asylum seekers to Finland. Usually, 30 cross in a month but in November there have been 900!]

    1941 – The Holocaust: The SS-Einsatzgruppen round up 11,000 Jews from the Riga Ghetto and kill them in the Rumbula massacre.

    1947 – Civil War in Mandatory Palestine begins, leading up to the creation of the State of Israel and the 1948 Arab–Israeli War.

    1954 – In Sylacauga, Alabama, United States, the Hodges meteorite crashes through a roof and hits a woman taking an afternoon nap; this is the only documented case in the Western Hemisphere of a human being hit by a rock from space.

    1972 – Vietnam War: White House Press Secretary Ron Ziegler tells the press that there will be no more public announcements concerning American troop withdrawals from Vietnam because troop levels are now down to 27,000.

    1995 – Official end of Operation Desert Storm.

    1995 – U.S. President Bill Clinton visits Northern Ireland and speaks in favor of the “Northern Ireland peace process” to a huge rally at Belfast City Hall; he calls IRA fighters “yesterday’s men”.

    1999 – Exxon and Mobil sign a US$73.7 billion agreement to merge, thus creating ExxonMobil, the world’s largest company.

    1999 – In Seattle, United States, demonstrations against a World Trade Organization meeting by anti-globalization protesters catch police unprepared and force the cancellation of opening ceremonies.

    1999 – British Aerospace and Marconi Electronic Systems merge to form BAE Systems, Europe’s largest defence contractor and the fourth largest aerospace firm in the world.

    2005 – John Sentamu becomes the first black archbishop in the Church of England with his enthronement as the 97th Archbishop of York.

    1. On this day (Part 2)
      Births:
      1485 – Veronica Gambara, Italian poet and stateswoman (d. 1550).

      1554 – Philip Sidney, English soldier, courtier, and poet (d. 1586).

      1667 – Jonathan Swift, Irish satirist and essayist (d. 1745).

      1810 – Oliver Winchester, American businessman and politician, founded the Winchester Repeating Arms Company (d. 1880).

      1813 – Louise-Victorine Ackermann, French poet and author (d. 1890).

      1817 – Theodor Mommsen, German jurist, historian, and scholar, Nobel Prize laureate (d. 1903).

      1835 – Mark Twain, American novelist, humorist, and critic (d. 1910).

      1843 – Martha Ripley, American physician (d. 1912).

      1858 – Jagadish Chandra Bose, Indian physicist, biologist, botanist, and archaeologist (d. 1937).

      1874 – Winston Churchill, English colonel, journalist, and politician, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Nobel Prize laureate (d. 1965).

      1909 – Robert Nighthawk, American singer and guitarist (d. 1967).

      1915 – Brownie McGhee, American folk-blues singer and guitarist (d. 1996).

      1915 – Henry Taube, Canadian-American chemist and academic, Nobel Prize laureate (d. 2005).

      1919 – Jane C. Wright, American oncologist and cancer researcher (d. 2013).

      1929 – Dick Clark, American television host and producer, founded Dick Clark Productions (d. 2012).

      1929 – Joan Ganz Cooney, American screenwriter and producer, co-created Sesame Street.

      1930 – G. Gordon Liddy, American lawyer, radio host, television actor and criminal (d. 2021). [His account of the raid on Timothy Leary’s house is hilarious.]

      1935 – Woody Allen, American actor, director, and screenwriter.

      1936 – Abbie Hoffman, American activist and author, co-founded the Youth International Party (d. 1989).

      1937 – Frank Ifield, English-Australian singer and guitarist.

      1937 – Ridley Scott, English director, producer, and production designer.

      1943 – Terrence Malick, American director, producer, and screenwriter.

      1945 – Roger Glover, Welsh bass player, songwriter, and producer.

      1947 – David Mamet, American playwright, screenwriter, and director.

      1950 – Patricia Ann Tracey, American Naval Vice Admiral.

      1952 – Mandy Patinkin, American actor and singer.

      1953 – June Pointer, American singer and actress (d. 2006).

      1955 – Billy Idol, English singer-songwriter, guitarist, and actor.

      1957 – John Ashton, English guitarist, songwriter, and producer.

      1960 – Gary Lineker, English footballer and sportscaster.

      1965 – Ben Stiller, American actor, director, producer and screenwriter.

      1966 – John Bishop, English comedian, presenter, and actor.

      1966 – David Nicholls, English author and screenwriter.

      1978 – Gael García Bernal, Mexican actor and producer.

      1985 – Kaley Cuoco, American actress.

      1990 – Magnus Carlsen, Norwegian chess player.

      Death must be so beautiful. To lie in the soft brown earth, with the grasses waving above one’s head, and listen to silence. To have no yesterday, and no tomorrow. To forget time, to forgive life, to be at peace:
      1016 – Edmund Ironside, English king (b. 993).

      1761 – John Dollond, English optician and astronomer (b. 1706).

      1900 – Oscar Wilde, Irish playwright, novelist, and poet (b. 1854).

      1930 – Mary Harris Jones, American Labor organizer (b. 1837).

      1934 – Hélène Boucher, French pilot (b. 1908).

      1958 – Hubert Wilkins, Australian pilot, ornithologist, geographer, and explorer (b. 1888).

      1972 – Compton Mackenzie, English-Scottish actor, author, and academic (b. 1883).

      1977 – Terence Rattigan, English playwright and screenwriter (b. 1911).

      1979 – Laura Gilpin, American photographer (b.1891).

      1979 – Zeppo Marx, American actor and comedian (b. 1901).

      1996 – Tiny Tim, American singer and ukulele player (b. 1932).

      1997 – Kathy Acker, American author, poet, and playwright (b. 1947).

      1998 – Janet Lewis, American novelist and poet (b. 1899).

      1998 – Margaret Walker, American author and poet (b. 1915).

      2006 – Shirley Walker, American composer and conductor (b. 1945).

      2007 – Evel Knievel, American motorcycle rider and stuntman (b. 1938).

      2017 – Marina Popovich, Soviet pilot, engineer and military officer (b. 1931).

      2018 – George H. W. Bush, American politician, 41st President of the United States (b. 1924).

      2022 – Jiang Zemin, Chinese politician, former General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (paramount leader) and President of China (b. 1926).

      2022 – Christine McVie, English singer-songwriter and keyboard player (b. 1943).

      2. And today (or maybe last night?) Shane MacGowan died. I’m surprised he made it to 65! I’ve always liked The Pogues, though…RIP.

        1. Oh…that’s too bad. Thanks. He had stopped drinking and got his teeth fixed last I heard. I’ll have to be sure to play “Fairy Tale in New York” this Christmas.

        2. I had no idea that he had been privately educated and had attended the (super posh) Westminster School. Admittedly, he went to Westminster on a scholarship and was kicked out after a couple of years, but still….l

    1. The man also extended the Vietnam war by treasonously interfering with negotiations before his election. And it was congress that deserves most credit for the EPA. Nixon was fixated on being seen as a great statesman and contemptuous of domestic policy, which he referred to as “building outhouses in Peoria,” so he went along with what congress put in front of him.

  7. Thank you, Matthew, for providing Hili continuity. When I visited the National Cancer Institute (NCI) labs at Ft Dietrich, MD back in around 2003, my memory is that the Director told us the the NCI lab program was set up very quickly with the shutdown of bio-weapons research at the creation of the 1972 Biological Weapons Convention. The lab facilities that had been used for weapons development had all the infrastructure components necessary for a world class cancer research facility and was quickly converted. Talk about a swords into ploughshares moment!

  8. In his tribute to Kissinger, Antony Blinken said he was receiving advice from him just last month.

  10. “Kissinger may have been responsible for what was probably the only good thing that President Nixon ever did.”

    That was a long time ago, so many people may not remember that Nixon signed the Clean Air Act, the Clean Water Act, and the Endangered Species Act, and created the Environmental Protection Agency.

  11. I bring politics and then – of course – evolution!

    1. This Is Not a Drill –
    The Anti-Semitism Epidemic     by Abigail Shrier : https://www.commentary.org/articles/abigail-shrier/hatred-unites-leftist-activists/

    2. [David Steensma]: “Did you ever wonder why our marrow is located inside of our *bones*, #MedTwitter? There’s no a priori anatomical reason it should be sited there. Blood cells could form in our spleens & livers, as they do during our fetal lives; or elsewhere, as in some animals. Let’s discuss! /1”

    https://x.com/davidsteensma/status/1729925873145389089?s=46

    (The evolution is further down).

    1. I can’t follow the thread, but maybe a reason is that the embryonic cell lineages between bone and blood are very close.

      1. They’re both connective tissues.
        And now that I think about it, osteoclasts are derived from the same marrow cells that give rise to leucocytes and macrophages. So the connection goes way back.

      2. There’s a TL;DR and im pretty sure you almost have it (not that I did!) but I’ll try to test my understanding:

        Hematopoietic Stem Cells – the oceans shield them from radiation. Air does not. Bone shields HSCs from radiation – so bone developed in land animals because it was shielding the HSCs from radiation.

        *relevant radiation : gamma and neutron – also period-dependent levels on Earth.

  12. … my comment is in moderation – any help?

    It’s links to an Abigail Shrier piece and an evolution-medicine eXtwitter thread (hyperlinks, or what ever they are called now).

    2. This has been happening to my comments, too, and I know, Wanderer Friend, that you and I have been loyal readers of WEIT for several years. In addition, I haven’t been able to use the Jetpack or Reader apps to comment on WEIT. I’m doing so now using a Web browser. I know a couple of other WEIT readers have been experiencing the same strange difficulties. Is there anyone else with this issue?

      1. Thanks – in this case though, I expected the links (two) were going to send it to moderation.

        FWIW I always use a browser.

        … oh right – Shield-like Wanderer – I remember that comment! I might have to keep the bizarre pseudonym after all.

        1. One day, if it’s safe for you, I, and perhaps others on this site, hope for a revelation of your real name.🤞🏻

      3. I use the regular web browser page (I am not sure what to call it), and don’t have problems. But there is also the copy of the web site straight out of WordPress. When I am having a problem, if I go to the WP site, I typically don’t have a problem.

  13. Walter Isaacson’s “Kissinger: A Biography” is excellent. A detailed and balanced account.

  14. Thanks for keeping the flame alive while the boss is out.
    I’m a big fan of your work.
    D.A.
    NYC

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