Even before the pandemic struck, I was fairly certain that Donald Trump would be defeated this November. Well, least the polls—which of course are not 100% trustworthy at this point—said so. As I recall, both Biden and Sanders were potential defeaters of the Orange Maniac, and the various polls were fairly consistent, and remain so through early March.
Now that Trump has bungled the handling of the epidemic, makes daily statements about it so palpably stupid that even a “deplorable” can see through them, and gives himself a ten out of ten in handling the crisis, I think his chances of victory are even slimmer. And that’s on top of the economy, which is heading south so fast it will reach Antarctica before the summer.
Because of this, I bet a friend in my department one hundred dollars that Trump will lose in November, no matter whom the Democrats run (I bet on Trump losing). I made the offer after my friend said, “Trump’s gonna win whatever happens.” (He dislikes Trump at least as much as I do.) I replied, “Would you like to bet on that?” “Sure”, he said. I said, “How much?” And he mentioned a hundred simoleons, and I said, “You’re on.” Because we can’t shake hands, we bumped elbows.
Now this isn’t the kind of bet I usually make during an election. I usually find a fairly sure thing, like an Obama win in his second term, and then find a Democrat who’s so scared of Republicans winning that they are willing to bet on Obama losing. I always point out to said mark that if the Democrat wins, he’d be glad to pay me, and if the Democrat loses, he’d at least get some dosh as consolation. (These sucker bets have all been with men.) I won twice on this during Obama’s two runs, accruing two duck dinners—those were the days before my duck-tending started—and several hundred bucks to boot.
This time I made a lose-lose bet, because if Trump wins, I not only lose $100 but I also have to face the country degenerating even further in The Moron’s second term. I still am comfortable with my bet, but what do you think?
Would you bet on Trump losing at this point? If so, how much? Or would you bet on Biden losing; and if so, how much?