Preliminary Iowa caucus results: Mayor Pete and the Bern on top

As of 5:45 pm Eastern time, with 62.5% of the precincts reporting in the Iowa caucus, here’s the delegate count from CNN (where there are live updates):

I’m of course not a prognosticator, but Mayor Pete isn’t a surprise given the paucity of African-Americans in Iowa. Biden is a surprise to me, running right behind Warren but with both of them well behind both Mayor Pete and Bernie, who are running pretty close to even. Given Iowa’s unwarranted influence, this will give Bern a big shot in the arm heading to New Hampshire, where he’s one of the favorites, though I’d prefer Mayor Pete as President.

It’s early, it’s one state, and an unrepresentative one, but what else is there to take our minds off the narcissistic loon we call “President”? To many of us this fall is a supremely important election, as we want someone sane in charge, but most of all we want someone to beat Trump.

37 Comments

  1. Mark R.
    Posted February 4, 2020 at 5:01 pm | Permalink

    I hope the remaining vote comes out tonight and not too late. We need to get this primary over with and forgotten.

    • Posted February 5, 2020 at 7:19 am | Permalink

      I don’t think the GOP is going to let you forget the fiasco that was the Iowa Caucuses.

      • sugould
        Posted February 5, 2020 at 8:50 am | Permalink

        My one right-wing friend has already done three nasty posts on it, one of them linking it to the Clinton server scandal.

      • GBJames
        Posted February 5, 2020 at 9:07 am | Permalink

        The appropriate response to those who make this argument is:

        “2012.”

        (The Republican Party in Iowa called the caucus for Mitt Romney, only to change it to Santorum later on. The actually winner is still unknown since half a dozen precincts remained uncounted.)

  2. Posted February 4, 2020 at 5:04 pm | Permalink

    Pete has spent much more time in Iowa and New Hampshire than anyone else, so this is not a big surprise. He will probably not do well in South Carolina where Biden should win.

    That brings us to Super Tuesday which to me is a big unknown. Biden still leads in the polls in most of the Super Tuesday states. Remains to be seen if he can maintain that lead.

  3. rickflick
    Posted February 4, 2020 at 5:06 pm | Permalink

    I wonder how representative the current batch of results is? It could be a good cross section of sentiment, which puts Mayor Pete in the cat bird seat, or highly skewed. The full report could be drastically different.

    • Posted February 4, 2020 at 5:21 pm | Permalink

      I think Iowa should have waited until all of the precincts can be reported.

  4. Randall Schenck
    Posted February 4, 2020 at 5:34 pm | Permalink

    In case anyone is interested, here is some of the dope on what happened. They knew a week ahead that the app was not working but did not get it fixed. There were 1681 precincts to report so when the app did not work they all tried to call it in. The state democratic people had only one phone line to call in on – that was their big mistake. So when they all called in, they went on hold for hours.

    To give you an idea…last election they all called in on automated lines that were there to handle it.

    • GBJames
      Posted February 4, 2020 at 5:45 pm | Permalink

      It is a fiasco. But I’ll support a tree stump if it wins the nomination.

      • rickflick
        Posted February 4, 2020 at 7:12 pm | Permalink

        Great idea. It wouldn’t become fatigued by weeks of stumping. 😎

  5. Ken Pidcock
    Posted February 4, 2020 at 6:03 pm | Permalink

    Most of our friends voted for Trump in 2016, which may be why I can’t get this thought out of my head as this season proceeds: What if we made the billionaire president? Could you go along with that?

    • rickflick
      Posted February 4, 2020 at 7:14 pm | Permalink

      Mayor Bloomberg hopes you don’t dwell on that. 😎

    • Taz
      Posted February 4, 2020 at 8:11 pm | Permalink

      I’ll go along with anyone who’s not Trump.

      I think Bloomberg scares Donald the most.

  6. Ken Kukec
    Posted February 4, 2020 at 6:26 pm | Permalink

    Dear Leader gives his (hopefully last) State of the Union address tonight. According Deputy press secretary Hogan Gidley, the Very Stable Genius wrote the speech all by himself. (Trump, according to Gidley, “is a best-selling author and deeply gifted orator who packs arenas and has a meticulous and carefully honed method for writing his speeches[.]”)

    Gidley says the Donald has been writing it out by hand, page-by-page, and giving it over for assemblage to Vince Haley and Ross Worthington, a pair of adjutants to Minister of Propaganda Stephen Miller.

    No doubt “everyone is telling” him it’s the GOAT SOTU speech.

    • Randall Schenck
      Posted February 4, 2020 at 6:47 pm | Permalink

      Yes, the only thing for those with enough stomach to watch to know…it’s all about me.

  7. Posted February 4, 2020 at 6:47 pm | Permalink

    Down with the Caucus, up the Secret Ballot!

  8. danstarfish
    Posted February 4, 2020 at 7:03 pm | Permalink

    I’m pretty excited about Buttigieg’s result. I did vote for him in the poll here, but was concerned it might be wishful thinking.

    In the last while, I have been worried that Biden and Warren have been showing signs that they won’t mount a good campaign in the general election. I don’t want the dems to field a candidate that can’t win the general.

    Warren repeating the thing about how she would have a trans child approve her secretary of education doesn’t show good instincts for effective campaign messaging. It is one thing to say that in the middle of a debate, but to bring it up on her own months later. I saw someone describe it as she is trying to pander to her audience, but her pandering isn’t particularly good and she isn’t pandering to the audience in front of her.

    With Biden, I think the Hunter Biden thing will sink him. I don’t think Joe is corrupt or did anything wrong, but he is handling the problem very badly. I don’t fault him for his loyalty to his son, but just saying Hunter is a good boy isn’t going to cut it. I don’t think he is doing a good job of debunking the idea that his son was selling influence to him. Why doesn’t anyone talk about Zlochevsky’s $23 million that was frozen in London? When Ukraine’s prosecutor’s office helped get that money unfrozen that is when everyone decided that the Shokin had to go and that he was helping Burisma instead of investigating them.

  9. Posted February 4, 2020 at 7:41 pm | Permalink

    As a matter of fact, Buttigieg rushed to report he won based on merely partial results while the app his campaign has helped to funded caused a mysterious delay and all of that by pure coincidence helps Buttigieg produce a good headline or prevent the headline “Sanders won Iowa”. Interesting.

    CNN writes: “While Pete Buttigieg is the initial leader in Iowa when it comes to state delegates, Bernie Sanders is leading in the popular vote.”

    None of this makes the Democrat Party look good.

    • EB
      Posted February 4, 2020 at 8:46 pm | Permalink

      That wasn’t a nice move by Pete, who seems desperate to gain in the polls, where he is trailing badly just about everywhere. Even Bernie, who flubbed IMO by releasing his partial internal numbers, at least did not declare victory, but only predicted that he had done “very, very well”.

      Klobuchar made me laugh when she said that the Iowa results made clear that this was a five-person race (with her in it!), this despite her abysmal numbers, where she is behind longshots like Yang and barely doing better than Gabbard.

  10. David L Jorling
    Posted February 4, 2020 at 8:35 pm | Permalink

    I can’t watch the State of the Union. I despise the man entirely. But the big news from Iowa, IMHO, was not the mess-up, but the turnout, which roughly equaled 2016. It lagged far behind the 2008 Obama year. According to news reports, election officials anticipated 400,000 to show up. This tells me there isn’t enough excitement for any of the current slate of candidates. The other depressing news is that in spite of everything, Gallup just released a poll that shows Trump’s approval rating up to 49%.

    https://news.gallup.com/poll/284156/trump-job-approval-personal-best.aspx

    Unless something drastic happens, he’s on his way to re-election, and our democracy is over (if it isn’t already).

  11. Deodand
    Posted February 5, 2020 at 3:07 am | Permalink

    The problem is if Sanders wins, all Peoples of NonColor (Types 1 (White) & 2 (Jew)) of NonGender (Straight Male) will be hauled off by Servants of the People, Ninth Class (Secret Police) to Sensibility Training Centers (Re-Education Camps) where they will be required to accept their personal responsibility for the crimes of their ancestors and hand over their assets to the Peoples of Color (Types 1 (Black), 2 (Brown), 3 (Asian) & 4 (Muslim)) as ‘reparations’ or be subject to Extreme Remedial Training (Execution.)

    • Posted February 5, 2020 at 3:17 am | Permalink

      Do you actually believe that? How so, given that Sanders is himself of pale complexion?

      • Deodand
        Posted February 5, 2020 at 5:58 am | Permalink

        Nope, just being sarcastic.

  12. Stevec
    Posted February 5, 2020 at 3:12 am | Permalink

    Re-election of Trump = democracy over?

    How is electing someone into office the end of democracy? Sort of the essence of democracy.

    Are elections going to be abolished after this election?

    Or you don’t like the candidate (I don’t either) and your preference is the essence of democracy?

    • Posted February 5, 2020 at 7:25 am | Permalink

      Have you not noticed how Trump is dismantling the US democracy? For example, he’s packing the judiciary with Republican stooges. Once the supreme court is packed with Trump toadies, everything the Democrats do will be challenged inn the courts and they will lose.

      • Posted February 5, 2020 at 8:07 am | Permalink

        And the Senate is also now just a cult of personality, and the nation’s institutions have been gutted (many departments now run by people who once publicly vowed to destroy them); there are no checks and balances.

      • GBJames
        Posted February 5, 2020 at 9:10 am | Permalink

        I think it is more correct to say that the Supreme Court has been packed with Mitch MacConnell toadies.

    • Saul Sorrell-Till
      Posted February 5, 2020 at 8:53 am | Permalink

      The idea that Trump’s election is an example of a healthy democracy is thoroughly dismantled in ‘How Democracies Die’ – most of the last century’s anti-democratic, authoritarian dictators were voted into power.

      They then proceeded to do exactly what Trump has started doing: threatening the press, rigging elections, dividing the public, purging the civil service of neutrals and filling it with loyalists, skewing the judiciary, sotto voce encouraging violence against opponents, etc.

    • Saul Sorrell-Till
      Posted February 5, 2020 at 8:56 am | Permalink

      …so yes, electing someone into office is often the precursor to “the end of democracy”.

    • Keith
      Posted February 5, 2020 at 9:16 am | Permalink

      Our system of governance has survived largely because of the checks and balances in the constitution and a reasonable adherence to norms of behavior from elected leaders and their political parties. When the electoral college elected Trump–someone with an obvious personality disorder and no regard for established norms or empirical reality–the flaws in our system have been exposed. If one party simply refuses to uphold its constitutional duty and hold another branch accountable, our representative democracy as we know it ends. I don’t think it is alarmist at all to say we are sliding toward fascism, thanks to the GOP.

      • Stevec
        Posted February 5, 2020 at 3:53 pm | Permalink

        Interesting comments.

        Well, let’s check in again in 2025.
        My prediction is Trump will leave office then and a newly elected president – probably democrat but could be republican – will enter office.

  13. Posted February 5, 2020 at 9:41 am | Permalink

    Don’t get your hopes up. Trump is a narcissist loon. But what do you think will happen if the choice is the loon or Uncle Grumpy, a doddering old man, an out-of-touch school teacher, or a “Sodomite.” Heaven help us.

    • ladyatheist
      Posted February 5, 2020 at 11:25 am | Permalink

      I for one don’t look forward to a debate between a cranky old man from Queens and a cranky old man from Brooklyn.

  14. ladyatheist
    Posted February 5, 2020 at 11:24 am | Permalink

    I think this speaks to the reality that Democrats are not as radically liberal as the Bernie Bros. want us to believe. His rabid fanbase helps his turnout in caucuses, but in actual elections, when people don’t have to commit to hours spent with neighbors in order to have a voice, he doesn’t do as well.

    Of course there will be a conspiracy theory about this, because the Bernie Bros. are the mirror image of Trumpists.

  15. Curtis
    Posted February 5, 2020 at 11:34 am | Permalink

    This just shows how sexist men are. The mens’ preferences were Buttigieg, Sander, Warren, Biden and Klobuchar. The women did badly. The womens’ preferences were Buttigieg, Sander, Warren, Biden and Klobuchar.

  16. sugould
    Posted February 5, 2020 at 12:33 pm | Permalink

    Seen on the Stephen Colbert Show: One older female Iowa voter found out that Buttigieg was married to a man. She was shocked and asked to have her ballot back.

    Given this “knowledge” of the candidates, how can anyone predict with accuracy?


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