It snowed here again last night! Just when you think spring has arrived, Ceiling Cat hits us with a reminder that He’s in charge. Fortunately, it was only a light dusting. In the meantime, we have Hili, who seems to be worried about Russia. . .
Hili: I’m looking anxiously to the East.
A: You are not alone.
In Polish:
Hili: Z niepokojem patrzę na wschód.
Ja: Nie ty jedna.
Putin does seem to be trying to restore the old Russian Empire so I guess Poland is next.
Poland is a NATO member. Any attack on Poland by Russian forces will be immediately repelled by NATO troops (including US, German, French, British, etc.)…WWIII, in other words.
Even if Putin is crazy enough to do that sort of thing — and I see no indication of either a desire to go that route or the insanity it would take to carry out such a desire — I very much doubt that the Russian military leadership would press the MAD button. Putin would simply have some sort of sudden onset of a tragic medical condition and that would be the end of that.
The former Soviet member states, on the other hand, should be shitting their pants. That, and the Second Cold War is clearly upon us; Russia is clearly poised to re-annex Ukraine, and, though the West isn’t going to intervene militarily, I’m pretty sure there’s going to be no-holds-barred economic retaliation. Russia still has much of Europe on a tight oil and gas leash, but those are fungible commodities and soon nobody anywhere is going to have much interest in Russian petrochemicals.
That might actually be a significant part of this; Putin could be looking to hoard Russian petroleum reserves against peak oil, and using this as an excuse to do that and “circle the wagons” at the same time. (And, of course, he could simply be as insane as Angela Merkel thinks he his.)
Hili’s right to be anxious, but for her cousins in Ukraine. She herself is as safe as anybody is these days.
b&
Part of Putin’s problem is that he needs the oil/gas money from Europe. Most European countries are preparing to get oil/gas from some place else, so anytime soon any blackmail attempts will stop working. The Russian economy isn’t as strong as Putin &Co. would like us to believe. Foreign companies withdrawing from Russia would be bad news.
I agree, the 2nd Cold War is already on. I think Hili thinks of the times where Poland and the Baltic States were very much part of the soviet empire, old fears die hard.
Does Hili know that this summer is the 100th anniversary of the start of WWI? If the Russia/Ukraine/Crimea situation becomes a full-fledged war, that’d be a bitter irony.
We are faced with the spector of christian dominated Russia and christian dominated America and Europe igniting a third world war on the approching anniversery of WW1, and nuclear arsenals could be in play.
Same here, Hili. Our thoughts are with you and A and M and the people of Ukraine.
Spot the nightjar
Why not let Crimea split off? They’re Russian.