Category: diplomacy

Dissident Saudi journalist in America probably killed on Turkish soil after going to Saudi consulate in Istanbul

October 8, 2018 • 12:45 pm

I’m not absolutely sure that Jamal Kashoggi has been murdered, but it’s pretty likely. Kashoggi, a Saudi journalist became self-exiled when he began criticizing —in the pages of the Washington Post—the new Saudi government (i.e., Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and his father King Salman). Last Tuesday, Kashoggi went to the Turkish consulate in Istanbul to get a document saying he had divorced his ex-wife so he could marry his Turkish fiancée. He never left the consulate, and had warned his fiancée that this might happen. It’s not clear why he didn’t emerge, but Turkish officials say he was killed. As the BBC reports:

Turkish officials made the accusation [of murder] on Sunday. They said their investigators had “concrete proof” of the killing which, they said, was carried out by a 15-person Saudi team who arrived in the country last week.

No evidence has been presented. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has previously said officials are welcome to conduct a search as there is nothing to hide.

The Saudis claim that there was no foul play, and don’t even admit that Kashoggi entered the consulate, though there’s likely video documentation. SInce he wasn’t seen leaving, the Saudis have to explain what happened to him.

The Washington Post, or at least its editorial page editor Ruth Marcus, also suspects the worst.

BBC security analyst Frank Gardner says it’s a big mystery:

The allegations of what the Saudi authorities may have done to one of their most prominent critics are – if proven – horrific. But the evidence has yet to be produced, leaving everyone guessing what could have happened to him after he entered the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.

I have known Jamal Khashoggi for 18 years and although outspoken, he was not one to take unplanned risks. Yes, he knew he had riled the all-powerful Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman with his widely read criticisms of MBS’ increasingly heavy-handed rule. But Mr Khashoggi thought he had the situation under control.

Instead, Saudis I have spoken to believe that, despite official denials, one possible scenario is that he was abducted inside the consulate, driven out in a diplomatic vehicle and “rendered” back to Saudi Arabia to either face retribution or be held incommunicado under indefinite house arrest.

The worrying thing is, we may never know.

Everyone is excited because the new Saudi rulers are said to be slowly liberalizing the country, but I suspect that’s just window-dressing. Women can drive! But remember that in August the Saudis arrested two women activists, part of a continuing suppression of dissident writers and other activists. The Crown Prince is simply pretending he’s liberalizing the country, tossing progressives a few scraps like women’s permission to drive. Saudi Arabia is as repressive as ever, and the U.S. is in bed with them.

This latest event is horrific: the possible abduction and murder of a self-exiled dissident journalist on foreign soil by an imported squad of goons. The U.S., like Turkey, should be demanding answers now. 

If you want to read a selection of Khashoggi’s columns for the Washington Post, go here.

 

Trump screws up in Singapore

June 12, 2018 • 6:41 pm

Of course Trump wasn’t going to get Kim Jong-un to give up his nukes; that was never on the table. There is a lot of talk of how Trump gave away the farm (no more joint U.S./South Korean military exercises) and got precious little in return, while the DPRK got a propaganda triumph. Still, that doesn’t really change much, although it makes Trump look ridiculous and weak. But we knew that anyway. No, the biggest screwup he made was coddling the world’s worst dictator and, according to the New York Times, making statements like this:

Trump praised Kim in the news conference and, astonishingly, even adopted North Korean positions as his own, saying that the United States military exercises in the region are “provocative.” That’s a standard North Korean propaganda line. Likewise, Trump acknowledged that human rights in North Korea constituted a “rough situation,” but quickly added that “it’s rough in a lot of places, by the way.” (Note that a 2014 United Nations report stated that North Korean human rights violations do “not have any parallel in the contemporary world.”)

Incredibly, Trump told Voice of America that he had this message for the North Korean people: “I think you have somebody that has a great feeling for them. He wants to do right by them and we got along really well.”

That’s just palaver, of course, but it’s a craven and disgusting series of statements. Kim Jong-un wants to do right by the North Korean people? Who is Trump kidding? Dear Leader wants to crush them under his boot, and is responsible for starving most of them and killing many of them.

Call me naive, but I still cherish the American ideal of fostering freedom and liberty throughout the world. When you laud the world’s worst dictator in a way like this, the ideal is gone—at least until Trump is gone.

“It’s rough in a lot of places, by the way.”  Ceiling Cat help us.

Tom Nichols on the Big Summit

June 12, 2018 • 12:45 pm

I’ve been appalled at how ham-handedly Trump has handled the Singapore summit with Kim Jong-un, and how casually he seems to take it. On again, off again. . . “I can size him up in 10 seconds”, “I know everything I need to know”, and so on. Trump doesn’t have near the knowledge or savvy to handle this, and though I haven’t followed what’s going on, Tom Nichols is boasting on Twitter how prescient he was. (Nichols is a professor at the Naval War College and at Harvard’s extension school, an expert on the Soviet Union, author of seven books, and, according to Wikipedia, “a five-time undefeated Jeopardy! champion.”)

Well, I looked up his piece on USA Today, published on March 9. Click on the screenshot to go there:

And here are Nichols’s predictions from that piece:

Given North Korea’s track record, here is what is more likely to happen. Kim and Trump will meet, and Kim’s regime will reap hours of footage of an American president shaking the hand of the “supreme leader” that will run forever in North Korea and go viral around the world. Kim will play the gracious host and agree to everything, knowing that this kind of flattery will trigger a torrent of praise from Trump and perhaps even elicit reckless talk about lifting sanctions. (The North Koreans will surely have done their homework on the president’s psyche, which is on display all day, every day, on social media.)

After the summit, Pyongyang will then dig in on further negotiations. When those talks fail, Kim will blame Trump, leaving the president bewildered and angry. Trump will go back to his insulting ways, which will pave the way for Kim to exit any preliminary agreements. The whole business will fall apart, and North Korea will look like the sure winner: the co-equal of a U.S. president who has been humbled in front of America’s allies and embarrassed in front of its enemies. The unveiling of a functional, nuclear-armed North Korean ICBM will follow.

I hope I’m wrong. Talking to the North Koreans is certainly a far better idea than war. Trump and Kim could surprise us all and begin the process of removing nuclear weapons from North Korea. But it’s far too early to think about any calls to Oslo just yet.

Well, Trump has already been humbled and embarrassed before the entire world. As for the propaganda victory, the North Koreans already are subject to a constant barrage of anti-American propaganda and pro-Dear-Leader sentiments. What difference will it make to the world if they see Trump shaking hands with Kim Jong-un and become extra proud of Dear Leader? None that I can see: the people will still be slaves. And the rest of the world, including China, isn’t suddenly going to start admiring Kim Jong-un more because he took advantage of a moron. Really, what is this propaganda victory supposed to consist of?

My own prediction: nothing will change except for perhaps a draw-down of U.S. forces in South Korea. But that won’t change anything, either, as we still have missiles on subs around the peninsula, and ICBMs pointed at Pyongyang. Neither South Korea nor the DPRK will be any more secure. As for the sanctions, we’d be fools to drop our support for them.