Thursday: Hili dialogue

April 9, 2026 • 6:45 am

Welcome to Thursday, April 9, 2026, and National Chinese Almond Cookie Day. These are good, but I’ll digress a bit and show what’s inside their partner: fortune cookies. BuzzFeed has a page showing 41 funny fortunes, and here’s one:

u/JessLovesNaps / Via reddit.com

It’s also Appomattox Day, marking the surrender of Robert E. Lee to Ulysses Grant at the Appomattox Courthouse in Virginia in 1865, Jenkins’ Ear Day (look it up), National Gin and Tonic Day, National Pimento Cheese Day, and National Winston Churchill Day (Churchill was neither born nor died on April 9, and nobody likes him anymore, either, I suppose because he’s considered a white supremacist and a defender of the British Empire).

Readers are welcome to mark notable events, births, or deaths on this day by consulting the April 9 Wikipedia page.

Da Nooz:

Everything in the Middle East is a dumpster fire this morning. First, a short summary from It’s Noon in Israel:

It’s Thursday, April 9, and Operation Roaring Lion is over. For the last time, here are the latest developments while you were asleep:

  • President Donald Trump ordered U.S. naval, air, and ground forces to remain deployed around Iran, describing the posture as “armed monitoring” and warning of a “bigger, and better, and stronger” response if the ceasefire is breached.
  • Vice President JD Vance will lead the US negotiating team in Islamabad this Saturday, joined by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Iran is said to prefer Vance at the table, having accused Witkoff and Kushner of misrepresenting Tehran’s positions in previous rounds.
  • Hours after a two-week ceasefire with Iran came into effect, Israel launched its largest wave of strikes against Hezbollah, codenamed “Eternal Darkness”—50 fighter jets dropping 160 bombs on 100 targets across Beirut, the Beqaa Valley, and southern Lebanon within ten minutes. Targets included command centers, intelligence headquarters, rocket and naval units, and assets of the elite Radwan Force.

*Iran kept the Strait of Hormuz closed in response to Israel’s continuing attacks on Hezbollah, which tells you that Iran still bolsters terrorism: they want to protect Hezbollah, which by UN mandate is to lay down its arms (UN Security Council Resolution 1701 from 2006).

The cease-fire between the United States and Iran entered its second day on Thursday despite confusion over the status of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway that Iran has effectively blockaded, and over Lebanon, where Israel continued attacks against the Iran-backed militia Hezbollah.

On Wednesday, Iran said Lebanon was included in the cease-fire and accused the United States of not upholding its end of the deal. Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, said Washington had to choose between a cease-fire or continued war via Israel. Pakistan, which mediated the truce, said the deal covered Lebanon, a claim disputed by the White House.

Israel, which said that the cease-fire did not extend to Lebanon, attacked more than 100 targets there on Wednesday, and Lebanese officials said 180 people were killed and 900 were injured. Hezbollah said on Thursday that it had targeted Israel with a rocket salvo in retaliation, and that it planned to continue attacking until Israeli aggression against Lebanon ceased.

Late Wednesday, President Trump wrote on social media that the U.S. military ships, aircraft and personnel would stay near Iran until a “REAL AGREEMENT” is reached between the two countries. If not, he said, fighting would resume “bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has seen before.”

Peace talks hosted by Pakistan were scheduled to begin in Islamabad on Saturday morning, and Vice President JD Vance was expected to travel there with a group that includes Steve Witkoff, the president’s special envoy, and Jared Kushner, Mr. Trump’s son-in-law.

. *Elliott Abrams gives his take at The Free Press:

Well, there is a ceasefire. Or perhaps not. It includes Lebanon. Or it doesn’t. Iran’s 10-point plan is an acceptable working document for the United States. Or it isn’t the one U.S. negotiators saw. The Strait of Hormuz will be open. Or passage requires Iranian approval and a toll.

All this confusion is unsurprising, because the only meeting of the minds between President Donald Trump and whoever is ruling in Tehran was that the United States would stop attacking Iran. In return, Iran would stop attacking all its Arab neighbors and Israel—though not immediately, we soon learned. My own guess is that at the end of two weeks allotted for negotiations, two more weeks will be allotted, and then two more. There may never be much more than a ceasefire agreed, given the distance between Iranian and American demands. (A random thought: Trump could never have done this if Iran had captured the second crew member. It would have been a display of weakness of the kind that he’s avoided.) A simple ceasefire may be far from the worst outcome, because it avoids U.S. concessions that might be part of any detailed bilateral agreement.

An accounting of gains and losses for the United States is therefore temporary and incomplete. If the ceasefire really breaks down (for instance, because Iran insists that Israel stop responding to Hezbollah attacks, which Israel will not do) the president will have to do something more than the air attacks of last week. That will mean a broader bombing campaign which, though it will not destroy Iranian civilization, will destroy a number of bridges and power plants. That should not be surprising or unacceptable, because Iran spent the first hours after the ceasefire announcement attacking power and desalination plants and oil sites in the Arab Gulf countries. Or, Trump might decide the time has come to seize some islands in the Gulf. This would all be unwelcome for Trump, who wants the war over, the stock market up, and oil prices steadily (if slowly) descending. He will only do it if the Iranian regime leaves him no other choice.

They might. We know little about how decisions are being made in Tehran, except that they are not being made by the new Supreme Leader, who may be in a coma. Until Mojtaba Khamenei speaks to the nation, it’s fair to assume that every word issued in his name is a product of the opaque group running the country. And that group may at some point decide that another round of fighting would be useful—to head off an internal uprising, for example.

Whatever we may say about the ruling group, it consists exclusively of hard-line regime survivors, mostly from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or closely tied to it. Trump’s and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s claims that there has been regime change because new thugs have replaced older ones are absurd, and this lie undermines everything else they say about the war. The new group of top apparatchiks overlaps with the older one—the one that killed over 30,000 unarmed fellow citizens in January.

The last paragraph shows how duplicitous–and Nineteen Eighty-Fourish—the administrations claims of “regime change in Iran” are. The New Boss is the same as the Old Boss.  Given the Iranian demands (see next item), Abrams is probably right that we should prepare for a long series of extended American deadlines.  As of right now, the only goal the US has met is to destroy much of Iran’s military, which can be rebuilt.

*The WSJ lists Iran’s ten demands for a ceasefire. When you read them, you’ll see that if Trump accepts them, we’ll have lost this war.

President Trump said Iran has put forward a 10-point peace plan that, in a social-media post, he said “is a workable basis on which to negotiate.”

Nour News, an Iranian publication backed by Iran’s Supreme National Supreme Council, published this list:

1. The U.S. must fundamentally commit to guaranteeing non-aggression.

2. Continuation of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz.

3. Acceptance that Iran can enrich uranium for its nuclear program.

4. Removal of all primary sanctions on Iran.

5. Removal of all secondary sanctions against foreign entities that do business with Iranian institutions.

6. End of all United Security Council resolutions targeting Iran.

7. End of all International Atomic Energy Agency resolutions on Iran’s nuclear program.

8. Compensation payment to Iran for war damage.

9. Withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from the region.

10. Cease-fire on all fronts, including Israel’s conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Right off the bat I can see several items that the US should not accept, or, if they do, it’s dire: items 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 (depending on what they mean by “the region”).  I have a sinking feeling, as I write this on Wednesday afternoon, that the war will end leaving Iran damaged but pretty much where it was before: a center for terrorism, oppressing its people, and busily working to enrich uranium to bomb Israel.

The NYT discusses the basic demands in the list above, item by item, though their list has the ending of fighting in the Middle East, including Lebanon. (their item #3)

Note that the Times of India has a different list, most notably involving stipulation #1, given by the paper as this:

  1. Complete cessation of the war on Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen.

It is this that has kept the Strait of Hormuz closed, as Israel is still at war with Hezbollah—not the government of Lebanon. Nobody seems to be sure whether Lebanon is part of Iran’s demands; Iran says it is, the U.S. says it’s not.

*More information on the deal comes from the Associated Press, and it’s not propitious.

Trump has suggested there has been “regime change” in Iran after U.S. and Israeli strikes killed the 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the first day of the war and a slew of other top officials and military leaders thereafter.

. . . The political class devoted to maintaining Iran’s Shiite theocracy remains intact. Many Iranians are angry at their leaders, but there has been no sign of an uprising since authorities crushed mass protests in January, before the war.

. . . All of Iran’s highly enriched uranium remains in the country, likely entombed at enrichment sites bombed by the U.S. during a 12-day war last June. Iran hasn’t enriched since then but maintains it has the right to do so for peaceful purposes and denies seeking nuclear weapons.

. . .Before the war, ships freely passed through the Strait of Hormuz, in the territorial waters of Iran and Oman. Since the war, Iran reportedly has been charging as much as $2 million a vessel to allow them to pass.

Iran and Oman are working on a proposal to split fees in the waterway, and Tehran insists it will maintain military control there, potentially granting itself a new source of revenue in the face of international sanctions.

Trump says America will be “hangin’ around” to ensure traffic passes. The U.S. and other countries are likely to oppose the new system, setting up a potential flashpoint.

. . .Gulf Arab nations can’t be happy about how the war has turned out.

Iranian attacks caused widespread damage to oil and gas facilities, airports and other sites, piercing their carefully cultivated image as stable business and tourism hubs. Qatar, one of the world’s top natural gas producers, has said it will take years to restore its output.

Gulf countries’ distrust of Iran has never been deeper and their faith that the U.S. will defend them has been shaken. U.S. bases across the region suffered direct strikes, but there’s no indication of any American withdrawal, as Iran has demanded.

It’s a right mess; I tell you that!  I don’t see any satisfactory conclusion to the war that doesn’t involve U.S. boots on the ground, as that’s the only way I can see to effect regime change. But that solution will not be satisfactory to the American people who already oppose the war by a substantial majority.  I still see this as a just war to eliminate terrorism, but it’s turned into a quagmire.

*Over at the Free Press, Eli Lake extols the ceasefire, claiming that “Trump’s madman act delivers in Iran.”

President Donald Trump just saved his war in Iran. On Tuesday evening, he announced that the planned bombing of Iran’s power plants and bridges would be called off for at least two weeks after the regime’s envoys had agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

. . . Now that Trump has postponed his threat to end Iranian civilization, America has won twice. First, the Iranians agreed to end their attacks on shipping through the Strait if the U.S.-Israeli military campaign stopped, according to a statement from Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi. That will greatly diminish the prospect of an oil shock and help keep markets calm. More importantly, Trump will not go forward with an insane atrocity against the people he promised to liberate.

As I wrote on Sunday, bombing Iran’s power grid would be an act of unspeakable cruelty. Aside from being a war crime that would almost certainly lead to the diplomatic isolation and censure of America and Israel, it would also kill the prospect for a color revolution down the line. People do not organize demonstrations when they are deprived of the basic necessities for life.

. . . . All of that said, Trump’s threat just may have worked. His high-stakes brinkmanship—an update to Richard Nixon’s strategy to persuade the Soviet Union and China that he was a madman—forced the Iranians to blink.

To be sure, Iran’s rulers are presenting their capitulation as a victory. The AP reported that Oman and Iran would begin collecting fees from ships passing through the Strait. As of this writing, Iran was still firing missiles at Israel and its neighbors.

And yet, if this is the deal, Iran didn’t get much. Trump did not accept the terms of their vaunted 10-point proposal, which would have enacted a permanent peace deal, lifted international sanctions, and ended Israel’s war against Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy. Trump merely agreed that the Iranian proposal, along with a 15-point U.S. plan, would be the basis for future negotiations. In other words, Iran is opening the Strait for two weeks in exchange for a maybe.

. . .On Tuesday, China and Russia vetoed a watered-down UN Security Council resolution demanding Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But last month, Iran’s two most important allies abstained from a resolution that condemned its attacks on Gulf allies. China also pressured Iran to accept the terms of the ceasefire in negotiations brokered in Pakistan this week.

All of this leaves Iran’s battered regime in a difficult position. It has survived for now. But it’s never been poorer, weaker, or more isolated. Trump’s domestic critics may crow that he has once again chickened out. But that barb doesn’t sting. Considering the alternatives, TACO Tuesday has never been sweeter.

Nope, not a maybe; as of Wednesday afternoon, the Strait is still closed. Lake’s ebullience is unwarranted. If Taco Tuesday is so sweet, why do I feel so sour?

Meanwhile in Dobrzyn, the two downstairs cats are worried about the upstairs d*g:

Hili: You’re also not certain whether that dog is shut in.
Szaron: No, but all signs point that way.

In Polish:

Hili: Też nie jesteś pewny, czy ten pies jest zamknięty.
Szaron: Nie, ale wszystko na to wskazuje.

*******************

From Now That’s Wild:

From My Cat is an Asshole:

From The Language Nerds:

:Masih must be going nuts what with all the rapidly-changing news about the war. Here’s a tweet from yesterday, in which she talks about a ceasefire inside Iran (there isn’t one):

Two from Luana. If you want to know the dangers of affirmative therapy, read this account.  The upshot: kids don’t get enough information, but are pushed onto the one-way treadmill ending in puberty blockers, hormones, and perhaps surgery:

And the poor guy testifies himself:

And two from the Number Ten Cat

This was in response to someone’s cat named Miles whose watching of the Artemis launch came to the attention of NASA, which responded with the “pspsps.”

One from my feed; cats will be cats, and cats have always been cats.

One I retweeted from The Auschwitz Memorial:

This Jewish boy was gassed to death along with his mother upon arriving at Auschwitz. He was one year old.

— Jerry Coyne (@evolutionistrue.bsky.social) 2026-04-09T10:17:34.266Z

And two from Dr. Cobb. He says of this first one “Some pecksniffs say it’s AI but the reasons they give don’t hold for me. Notice the carpet moving slightly under the dogs feet at the end.”  Sound up!

I couldn't breathe because I was laughing so hard. That bird's an asshole! 😂😂😂😂😂Best with volume up.

— Fergi Jo Lisa 🏳️‍🌈 (@lolafaglana.bsky.social) 2026-04-08T01:50:28.551Z

Sound up for this one, too:

Common loons call out in the morning quiet: 🔊 #AGoodPlaceSource: http://www.reddit.com/r/NatureIsFu…

— Michelle says: Be kind. Always. ❤️ (@snarkysillysad.bsky.social) 2026-04-08T10:59:51.588Z

22 thoughts on “Thursday: Hili dialogue”

  1. I still like Churchill.

    I agree with Dr. Cobb that the video is not A.I. In general, it is too complicated. There are too many moving elements, including the dogs breathing. The man watching in the background is an unnecessary element. Not only the rug moves, but also the couch when the dogs scatter. I’ve noticed that in dog videos one of the key things to watch is the dog’s mouth. Often everything else is animated, but the mouth hangs open unnaturally.

    Reply

    1. It’s definitely AI. As the dogs run away, you’ll see one towards the top right run right thru a wall into the kitchen. These cutesy pie videos of animals are all suspect these days. Also FWIW, Grok says it’s AI.

      Reply

    1. Yep, it’s an excellent and educational channel. I watch it regularly now.

      The news on the Strait is bad: Iran is forcing ships through a “toll booth” where tankers are being charged $2 million to cross.

      Iran now has the idea that the Strait can become a permanent revenue source, like the Suez Canal for Egypt.

      Sal explains that the Strait is a natural waterway and attempts to block it violate the UN Convention on the Law of Sea.

      But Iran figures it will do whatever it can away with!

      Reply

      1. Sal called it the “Ayatolla Booth”…clever I thought.

        As we (U.S.) tend toward being less a nation of laws, it will be harder to justify complaining about Iran with a straight face.

        Reply

      2. France and the UK might consider a charge for going through the
        English Channel which narrows to 22 miles.

        Reply

  3. “I don’t see any satisfactory conclusion to the war that doesn’t involve U.S. boots on the ground”

    I do. Arm the Resistance! 30,000 of them basically committed suicide last month because they couldn’t defend themselves against cowards with rifles.

    Supposedly, Trump sent arms to the Druze to be distributed to the Resistance. The Druze kept them for themselves.

    If this conflict fizzles out, and we abandon the Iranian people to these murderous despots without giving them the means to defend themselves and win their freedom back, it will be the biggest military and ethical gaffe of the modern age.

    Reply

  4. On nobody likes Churchill any more: we should like Churchill for his response to the massacre at Amritsar, a machine gun attack on unarmed civilians, ordered by Reginald Dyer. Churchill was outstanding in his recognition of Dyer as a murderer, and his insistence that there be official punishment for Dyer, when much of the British public and officialdom condoned the attack.

    Reply

  5. One thing Trump should do is demand that Iran publicly explain the so called “peaceful purposes” of their enriched uranium. They will have no answer. For nuclear power plants uranium is never enriched beyond 25% or so. Some reactor designs only require 3% enrichment. Too much enrichment is counterproductive for a large reactor since one must achieve a carefully controlled fission chain reaction rather than a runaway chain reaction. The only exception to this is the very small reactors used in nuclear vessels and submarines. Those reactors use weapons grade (i.e. 90% enriched) uranium. Because the nuclear pile is so small, the reactor can be fully controlled with such rich fuel.

    Reply

  6. Of course it’s ridiculous to claim that there has been regime change in Iran. If anything, the assassinations of ayatollahs has put the IRGC in power, which may be even more radical. One silver lining is that the IRGC is not monolithic. Many of the beards are vying to become the big boss, so the organization may be unstable.

    I know about the 10-point plan that has been published, but I’m not confident that the published plan is accurate. Even if it is accurate, Trump saying that it provides a basis for negotiations doesn’t mean that he’s going to accept those absurd terms. I certainly hope not. My guess is that Trump was desperate to pause the war, so he agreed—not to accept the terms themselves—but to accept that the proposal is enough to enter into negotiations. I agree that accepting those terms would be disastrous.

    Reply

  7. As often happens, the NYT is blaming Israel for threatening the ceasefire by continuing to attack Hezbollah. (The attacks are on Hezbollah, not Lebanon, you barnacles on the backside of journalism).

    Perhaps they should delve a bit into recent history. Israel has experience with truces with Hezbollah, including those “enforced” by the UN. It wasn’t that long ago, really. Try googling UN resolution 1701. We remember how that worked out for us.

    Edited to add: I also like Churchill. In addition to his many other contributions to humanity, his multi volume history of WWII is terrific. And yeah, it was written from a thoroughly British viewpoint. (I am not saying that Churchill was perfect, but he was miles above anyone on the current political stage.)

    Reply

    1. “As often happens, the NYT is blaming Israel for threatening the ceasefire by continuing to attack Hezbollah. (The attacks are on Hezbollah, not Lebanon, you barnacles on the backside of journalism).”

      Same with CNN, which I watch for a few minutes each day while at the gym. Israel is attacking Lebanon (not Hezbollah, Lebanon), displacing Lebanese civilians from their homes. And, for good measure, Israel’s attacks on Lebanon (not Hezbollah terrorists, which they didn’t even mention) is risking the fragile truce between the U.S. and Iran. If the truce fails to take hold, obviously, that’s Israel’s fault which, by the transitivity principle, is Netanyahu’s fault.

      Most so-called news is advocacy, not news. It’s easy to be taken in by it, especially if you stick to one or a few sources.

      Reply

      1. Most of it is advocacy – (every state broadcaster except Japanese NHK) – for Palestine, Norman. The NYTimes particularly: odious rag.

        Nobody is reporting what actual Lebanese say – which is what many told me personally in Beirut in 2006 in very similar circumstances – that a good percentage of Lebanese are actually rooting for Israel. Esp since Israel can shoot straight and targets Hezb. exclusively.

        D.A.
        NYC 🗽

        Reply

        1. Yes. One might even wonder if the Lebanese government is rooting for Israel to help them get rid of Hezbollah, but the government has no official choice but to at least pretend not to want Israel attacking its sovereign territory.

          I’m glad that the Israeli and Lebanese governments are meeting next week. There have been hints that the two governments have some important interests in common—particularly the expulsion or, better yet, eradication of Hezbollah.

          Reply

        2. Well, we target Hezbollah exclusively, but that does not mean that casualties are limited to Hezbollah. We do what we can to limit collateral damage.

          Thursday night, 01:00, Hezbollah furred a missile at the southern Israeli city of Ashdod. We downed it, but debris caused sirens in Tel Aviv. (No casualties reported as of this writing.) A perfect illustration of why the truce should not include Hezbollah.

          I am no fan of Netanyahu. He has been a disaster for this country: economically, socially, and most important, for security. But this war is something that every Israeli understands is necessary. We have lived for decades under Hezbollah threat, and it is time to put an end to it.

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          1. Yes. Absolutely.
            Canada’s Prime Minister says the cease-fire should include Hezbollah. Therefore the cease-fire should not include Hezbollah, on the principle that whatever the Canadian Prime Minister says about the Middle East is wrong.

          2. There is video on YouTube purporting to show that not only does Hezbollah store missiles and munitions in residential houses in southern Lebanon, but they actually fire missiles from the inside of these homes.

  10. My guess (and it is just a guess, I have no inside information) is that hostilities between the US and Iran will resume. My sense of it, is that Iran is committed to controlling the Middle-East (starting with the Strait of Hormuz) and the US is quite opposed. I don’t see any middle ground. The latest hostilities are (in my opinion) just a continuation of a conflict that began 47 years ago.

    Reply

  11. It would be a strategic error to end this war without forcing open the Strait of Hormuz. The task isn’t easy and security cannot be guaranteed, even if we destroy 99% of Iran’s known anti-ship missiles. The US military has long known that Iran could close the Strait at will, assumed it was willing to do so, and prepared for that scenario. But opening it would take time and patience. For anyone interested in details of that, mine clearing, island seizing, and related matters, the below podcast is an interview with two retired US Navy admirals, one of whom commanded all US naval forces in the Middle East for three years and has extensive experience in the region. Though part of the title mentions saving downed pilots, this is a secondary segment that was apparently tacked on because the F-15E shootdown was fresh news at the time of recording.

    https://warontherocks.com/2026/04/reopening-the-strait-of-hormuz-saving-downed-pilots/

    Reply

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