Welcome to a Hump Day (“Laa Hump” in Manx): Wednesday, November 13, 2024. It’s National Indian Pudding Day, celebrating the very best of America’s indigenous desserts. I love the stuff when I can get it. Sadly, this culinary masterpiece is almost impossible to find (don’t even bother leaving New England). In Boston, try the Union Oyster House, or make it at home, though it takes a while to cook. Here’s a photo with the best way to serve it: warm, with a dollop of vanilla ice cream on top:

It’s also Sadie Hawkins Day (some of the readers “of a certain age” may remember that from the “Li’l Abner” comic), National Bread Pudding Day (also a toothsome comestible), and World Kindness Day.
Readers are welcome to mark notable events, births, or deaths on this day by consulting the November 6 Wikipedia page.
Da Nooz:
*The NYT morning newsletter, by German Lopez and Ian Prasad Philbrick, note areas in which Congress, if it really does go Republican, will change government policy. To quote:
There are four areas in which a Republican Congress is most likely to make policy changes. For three of them, the party seems mostly united, and legislation does not necessarily have to overcome a filibuster in the Senate. (Some budget bills can pass with a simple majority.) For the last — aid to Ukraine — enough Republicans oppose a bill to keep it from becoming law.
1. Tax cuts: The signature legislation Trump signed in his first term was a 2017 law that cut taxes for almost all Americans, but especially the wealthy and corporations. Many of those cuts expire next year, and a Republican Congress is almost certain to extend most of them.
The biggest question is whether Congress will cut taxes even more, as Trump has said he favors (on tips, for example). That would make an already expensive tax bill even more costly — and lawmakers who are worried about the federal debt, including some Republicans, might oppose it.
2. Immigration: Nothing animated Trump on the campaign trail like immigration. He has promised mass deportations, which he could start by himself with executive action. But fully executing his plans will require money from Congress — for example, to hire border agents and build more of the wall.
Bigger changes to the immigration system would require bipartisan support to overcome a filibuster. Democrats have backed stricter entry rules before, but they might refuse to work with Trump on his signature issue. Some of Trump’s wealthy supporters have also pushed him to allow more legal immigration, but it’s unclear if Congress would agree.
3. Energy and climate: Congressional Republicans will probably reduce clean-energy funding, and Trump can unilaterally permit more oil and gas drilling and cut environmental regulations. Those moves will likely worsen climate change, but Republicans hope they will reduce energy costs.
There may also be opportunities for bipartisan legislating. Lawmakers from both parties want to streamline the permitting process, which could help oil, gas and clean energy projects move forward.
4. Ukraine: Trump and many congressional Republicans are skeptical about providing more aid for Ukraine’s defense against Russia. The aid approved earlier this year will probably run out sometime in 2025, at which point Ukraine’s struggles on the battlefield will grow.
Trump has promised to DELIVER on his campaign promises, so we shall see. I agree with limits on immigration, but Trump will be fighting a Democratic Congress that seemingly wants open borders, and will want them even more now as a form of retribution. As for the rest of the policies, I disagree with them. I don’t care much for tax cuts for the rich and corporations, I think it’s imperative to make good on producing clean energy, and I have always supported Ukraine and the U.S.’s funding of that small, plucky state. Yes, it’ll cost us money, but I for one am willing to pay more taxes to defend liberty, especially against the tentacles of the grasping Putin.
*Florida Senator Marco Rubio (R) appears to be Trump’s leading candidate for Secretary of State, and other Republicans are being vetted:
His early picks include two Republicans from New York — Representative Elise Stefanik to serve as the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, and former Representative Lee Zeldin to lead the Environmental Protection Agency. Both were loyal to Mr. Trump in his first term, fiercely defending him during his first impeachment.
The president-elect has not announced his nominees for the highest-profile jobs, like secretary of state or attorney general. He is expected to name Senator Marco Rubio of Florida as his secretary of state, three people familiar with his thinking said on Monday, cautioning that he could still change his mind at the last minute.
His cabinet choices will require confirmation by the Senate, which takes time and can sometimes present political problems. Mr. Trump was less prepared during his first term for the transition into office and complained that he had made bad choices, including picking Senator Jeff Sessions of Alabama to be the attorney general.
This time, aides to Mr. Trump have been considering their choices and vetting potential candidates for months, if not years, in anticipation of his election victory.
Stefanik, you may recall, was the main House Republican who grilled the Presidents of MIT, Harvard, and Penn, almost bullying them on their views about whether their campus’s rules permitted calls for the genocide of Jews. When the Presidents answered (correctly) that “it depends”, Stefanik came down on them like a ton of bricks, and that sparked a campaign that ultimately led to the resignation of Claudine Gay of Harvard and Liz Magill of Penn. Remember this?
I have little use for the conservative policies espoused by Stefanik or Rubio, but there is a silver lining. Like Trump’s previous UN ambassador, Nikki Haley, Stefanik will be good for Israel, which, after all, is the main issue that seems to occupy the UN these days. And the UN hates Israel, so I think the U.S. needs a strong pro-Israel voice in the organization.
Rubio, too, seems pro Israel; here he is being questioned about Israel some time ago (tweet from reader Jay). This is not Anthony Blinken!
This man @marcorubio is going to be our next Secretary of State. G-D Bless America!pic.twitter.com/LrOnHCf8ZY
— Dovi Safier (@safier) November 12, 2024
*Paleogeneticist David Reich and his colleagues have now been able to analyze DNA from the bones of victims in Pompeii who were killed in the eruption of Mount Vesuvius in 79 AD). First, a description of the eruption from Wikipedia:
Mount Vesuvius violently spewed forth a cloud of super-heated tephra and gases to a height of 33 km (21 mi), ejecting molten rock, pulverized pumice and hot ash at 1.5 million tons per second, ultimately releasing 100,000 times the thermal energy of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The event gives its name to the Vesuvian type of volcanic eruption, characterised by columns of hot gases and ash reaching the stratosphere, although the event also included pyroclastic flows associated with Pelean eruptions.
The death toll is at least 1,500, but the cities destroyed had a total population of 20,000. The number of victims remains unknown. The bones were extracted from ash-covered casts of the victims that were undergoing restoration. The results of the DNA analysis were surprising:
When a volcanic eruption buried the ancient city of Pompeii, the last desperate moments of its citizens were preserved in stone for centuries.
Observers see stories in the plaster casts later made of their bodies, like a mother holding a child and two women embracing as they die.
But new DNA evidence suggests things were not as they seem — and these prevailing interpretations come from looking at the ancient world through modern eyes.
“We were able to disprove or challenge some of the previous narratives built upon how these individuals were kind of found in relation to each other,” said Alissa Mittnik of the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology in Germany. “It opens up different interpretations for who these people might have been.”
Mittnik and her colleagues discovered that the person thought to be a mother was actually a man unrelated to the child. And at least one of the two people locked in an embrace — long assumed to be sisters or a mother and daughter – was a man. Their research was published Thursday in the journal Current Biology.
. . .Researchers focused on 14 casts undergoing restoration, extracting DNA from the fragmented skeletal remains that mixed with them. They hoped to determine the sex, ancestry and genetic relationships between the victims.
There were several surprises in “the house of the golden bracelet,” the dwelling where the assumed mother and child were found. The adult wore an intricate piece of jewelry, for which the house was named, reinforcing the impression that the victim was a woman. Nearby were the bodies of another adult and child thought to be the rest of their nuclear family.
DNA evidence showed the four were male and not related to one another, clearly showing “the story that was long spun around these individuals” was wrong, Mittnik said.
Researchers also confirmed Pompeii citizens came from diverse backgrounds but mainly descended from eastern Mediterranean immigrants – underscoring a broad pattern of movement and cultural exchange in the Roman Empire. Pompeii is located about 150 miles (241 kilometers) from Rome.
Here’s the mother and child who were presumably analyzed, presumably from the archaeological museum in Naples:

*Bakari Sellers, a CNN commentator, has suggessted that Sobnioa Sonia Sotomayor should resign and be replaced as a Supreme Cour Justice by—wait for it—Kamala Harris.
The CNN pundit Bakari Sellers suggested Sunday that Joe Biden should call on his ex-prosecutor vice president to replace Sonia Sotomayor as a justice on the Supreme Court.
That hypothetical would be quite the career whiplash for Kamala Harris, 60, who still isn’t a week removed from a crippling election defeat that saw her lose in all seven swing states. It’d also require Sonia Sotomayor to abruptly call it quits—something the Wall Street Journal reported Sunday she isn’t interested in doing.
Still, it’s an ask that Sellers and a handful of liberal activists have floated amid fears that, should the 70-year-old progressive die during Trump’s second term, she’d be replaced with yet another uber-conservative justice.
Sellers, a former Democratic lawmaker from South Carolina, indicated he’d be happy with a number of liberal replacements for Sotomayor, including Sri Srinivasan, 57; Robert Wilkins, 61; and Michelle Childs, who is 58.
Most important to Sellers, he said, was that Sotomayor—who has diabetes—call it quits and put to bed any risk she might die with Trump in office.
“Sotomayor needs to resign,” Sellers posted to X. “The court is currently 6-3 [in conservative’s favor]. This would limit Trumps ability to make it 7-2. It’s silly to believe there is no difference.”
Sellers said Sotomayor could “very likely be another story much like RBG” if she ignores calls to resign. That’s a reference to the trailblazing justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who died during the final months of Trump’s first term and opened the door for him to quickly appoint Amy Coney Barrett to replace her in 2020.
This is a sign of the desperation of Democrats, given that Kamala Harris has no judicial experience and no sensible person would stick her on the court. Yes, she would be the “Justice of Joy,” but seriously, is Sotomayor on her deathbed? Yes, she has type 1 diabetes, which at her age is serious, but calling for her to resign at this point seems uncaring—as if one is saying to her: “You’re going to die soon, so get out of the way and make room for a replacement.” Ugh!
*The pro-Palestinian students at Columbia are still being misguided and morally obtuse. And they’re certainly not helping their cause when they celebrated Veterans Day by rejecting the honoring of U.S. vets in favor of honoring Hamas’s “martyrs”. From the Jerusalem Post:
While many Americans honor US military servicemen on Veteran’s Day, November 11, some students at Columbia University have declared they “reclaimed” it for “martyrs” killed by the “Israel-US war machine,” the group responsible and American media reported on Sunday.
Columbia University Apartheid Divest, an unsanctioned student group, hosted “Martyr’s Day’ in opposition to the day usually dedicated to servicemen, according to flyers for the event. The same group erected a “liberation sukkah for Palestine,” according to their Instagram.
“Veterans Day is an American holiday to honor the patriotism, love of country, and sacrifice of veterans. We reject this holiday and refuse to celebrate it,” a flyer for the group’s event read.
The University pushed back:
Student veterans and supporters placed American flags in protest of the event, according to the New York Post.
“Columbia is proud of our students, faculty, and staff who are veterans, and we are grateful for their service and sacrifice and the invaluable contributions they offer to our community,” a campus spokesperson told The New York Post. “The University honors its veterans on Veterans Day and every day, and we are proud to be participating in the New York Veterans Day Parade tomorrow, as we have for more than a decade.”
“We are aware that a small group has called for a demonstration tomorrow, and our public safety team is monitoring for any disruptions to campus activity. As always, we are committed to preserving our core mission to teach, create, and advance knowledge,” the spokesperson added before the event.
Two posts from Elisha Baker showing the crowd of masked cowards.
It’s Veteran’s Day. A day to celebrate American patriotism and our heroes.
Take a look at the crowd who, in their own words, “rejects this holiday and refuses to celebrate it.”@Columbia pic.twitter.com/e3qhKOKDC9
— Elisha (Lishi) Baker (@LishiBaker) November 11, 2024
and
“We stand here to honor all our martyrs. Those who resisted, whether violently or non-violently.” — masked students @Columbia protesting against Veterans Day on campus.
Really really sad, reprehensible behavior. pic.twitter.com/r2Ugybyztc
— Elisha (Lishi) Baker (@LishiBaker) November 11, 2024
Here’s the Instagram post put out by Columbia’s Apartheid Divest:
How can you take these people seriously when (in addition to their worship of terrorists) they are too cowardly to even show their faces?
Meanwhile in Dobrzyn, Hili resorts to profanity!
Hili: I’m looking for logical fallacies.A: In the garden?Hili: This bullshit is now everywhere.
Hili: Szukam błędów logicznych.Ja: W ogrodzie?Hili: To świństwo jest teraz wszędzie.
*******************
Nicole found this spiffy duck kettle: watch the video! It quacks!
A medieval drawing (turned into a meme), courtesy of Diana:
From Cat Memes:
From Masih; an Iranian woman gets sexually assaulted, and guess what happens? She gets arrested for not wearing a hijab! Yep, that glimpse of hair must have provoked the assault thus it’s her fault. .
Her name is Roshank Molaei—a woman who dared to defend herself against sexual assault in public. But guess what? In the twisted logic of this regime, it’s not the assault that’s the crime; it’s the fact that her hair was showing while she did it.
So now, instead of punishing the… https://t.co/W8jGIL0uIV pic.twitter.com/hyxeDOvBtX
— Masih Alinejad 🏳️ (@AlinejadMasih) November 12, 2024
From Keith: duckling therapy. And they all were cured! From Poultry DVM:
Splay leg, also known as spraddle leg, is a type of leg deformity that is usually seen in young, newly hatched ducklings. It is most commonly caused by raising ducklings on a ground surface that does not provide adequate traction, however it can also be the result of problems during incubation, and less commonly genetics.
Duckling physiotherapy. They all had ‘splay leg’ and had been abandoned. Ended up with 5 healthy ducks.
— Julia Stone (@juliastonewriter.bsky.social) 2024-11-11T18:22:52.614Z
From Simon. first, the news:
President-elect Donald Trump has selected South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem as his next secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, according to two people familiar with the selection.
Noem will be tapped to take over the agency as two key immigration hardliners — Stephen Miller and Tom Homan — are slated to serve in senior roles, signaling Trump is serious about his promise to crack down on his immigration pledges. With his selection of Noem, Trump is ensuring a loyalist will head an agency he prioritizes and that is key to his domestic agenda.
The Bluesky “tweet”:
dogs getting the Kristi Noem news this morning
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.bsky.social) 2024-11-12T14:12:11.090Z
From my feed, a wonderful photo:
Timelapse of Europa & Io orbiting Jupiter, captured by the Cassini space probe pic.twitter.com/QsUkz2iUeW
— Space 8K (@uhd2020) November 11, 2024
This will come to no good end:
AOC is asking for names of accounts and podcasts that Trump voters listened to: pic.twitter.com/ENTWqmZDAg
— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) November 11, 2024
From the Auschwitz Memorial, one that I tweeted:
Dutch infant gassed to death on arrival; age: two months. https://t.co/blSd2kzZlV
— Jerry Coyne (@Evolutionistrue) November 13, 2024
Two “Skyposts” from Matthew. The first one has the upstairs bathroom at the end, and you’ll know why he sent it to me:
It's important that you look through the gallery for this listing until you get to the top floor bathroom. Important.www.cbmaritimerealty.com/listing/2024…
— David Hull 胡大衛 (@hushuo.bsky.social) 2024-11-12T01:30:52.122Z
This is for evolution nerds:
Geometriphylogenetics xkcd.com/3010/



Oh wow, I made Indian Pudding and Grape-Nut(TM) Pudding a year or two ago because PCC(E) posted it!
Never got back to refining the recipe – used a slow-cooker, I believe… was good, esp. with fresh whipped cream!
Recently thought about getting back into it… maybe after my bread project…
I might try that Indian pudding recipe. Question for Jerry: when you refer to it as an indigenous American dessert, do you mean only that it originated in America (using locally available maize, “Indian corn”)? It was an adaptation of a British pudding recipe that used wheat. None of the other ingredients (except possibly eggs) were known to the pre-Contact indigenous peoples of the Americas. I realize this peculiarly Canadian use of “indigenous” that may be causing my confusion.
In one of the aerial photos of the surroundings of the house on Morris Street, Halifax, you can see the hospital where I had my bone marrow transplant!
I wll always remember Stefanik for her open mic comment after Biden told the story about his uncle who was eaten by cannibals (he wasn’t): “Never trust a man whose uncle was eaten by cannibals.”
Jerry…Jerry…Jerry. I am so tired of people lamenting the tired “tax cuts for the rich” BS. The reality is we in the middle and low income class are a bunch of freeloaders when it comes to paying taxes. Here is IRS data as compiled by the Tax Foundation:
* The top 1 percent’s income share rose from 22.2 percent in 2020 to 26.3 percent in 2021 and its share of federal income taxes paid rose from 42.3 percent to 45.8 percent.
*The top 50 percent of all taxpayers paid 97.7 percent of all federal individual income taxes, while the bottom 50 percent paid the remaining 2.3 percent.
The top 1% get more than a quarter of all the income and you are trying to convince me that they are paying too much tax?
There’s a reason why higher earners pay relatively more tax. It’s because they can afford it. If you tax everybody at the same rate, you’ll push the net income of poorer people below the level that they need to survive.
How about cutting taxes on wages and compensating by raising taxes on gains from assets? The latter portion drives inequality and is much less earned than the former one.
One more thing…Justice Sotomayor should resign because she’s not very good. Her opinions are intellectually thin and border on being rants. At times her questions during oral arguments are embarrassing because she gets law wrong. More than once her colleagues or the lawyers she has questioned have tactfully saved her from further embarrassment.
Philosophically, I’m a Justice Alito type of guy. But I appreciate the legal intellect Justice Jackson has brought to the court. So Justice Sotomayor, do the country a favor…and resign.
True. But you want idiotic judicial opinions? Then VP “Justice” Kamala Harris says “Hold my beer!”
We do not need a joy justice.
D.A., J.D.
NYC
I don’t understand. If Sotomayor resigns, there’s nothing in law that says Biden has to appoint Harris as her successor.
I think Sotomayor should resign as should all judges when they reach the age of seventy.
I think they should be replaced by justices who have shown competence in interpreting the law rather than those whose political views are the same as the President. Of course, Tr*mp doesn’t agree with me and that is why you have a politically biased supreme court. The last thing you want is for Supreme Court justices to be replaced by GOP presidents. They have no respect for impartiality.
I had a negative opinion of Jackson with her “I’m not a biologist” comment during the confirmation hearing, but I’ve been impressed by Jackson as well. Her opinions have been well reasoned and based on her interpretation of law. Kamala Harris is nowhere near that level of intellect.
I don’t see a realistic way to replace her in time. It takes too long.
And we’ve already seen the GOP block Obama’s attempt at a late stage appointment. This would just be handing another seat to Trump.
On cat kissing: There’s an old lady near me whose yorkie has a permanent lipstick- ed forehead. She wears bright red lipstick and she confessed – it is a kissing “injury” to the doggie.
With us it goes in the other direction. Puppers always wants to kiss me but as you can see from my WEIT picture, doggie kissing is not my thing.
https://whyevolutionistrue.com/2020/06/10/photos-of-readers-93/
I have to dissent with PCC(E) on Judge Sotomayor. I think he might be a bit touchy on age related issues. She’s diabetic type 1, overweight, and the possible loss or disability of her would be terrible. Retire your honor, I say. (Not PPC/E – he’s doing a great job).
D.A.
NYC
It seems that The Guardian is throwing a strop and no longer Tweeting out its articles to its 10 million followers on Twitter. All because people with other views also get to Tweet on Twitter.
Trump’s appointees are interesting, and scary. I do agree that Stefanik and Rubio will be friends of Israel, and I particularly hope that Stefanik has the stones to stand up to the Israel-hating U.N.—even if she is a bully (and maybe because of it).
Regarding Sotomayor, I don’t think she should resign simply because she is 70 and has diabetes. I think that Bakari Sellers is being a bit of an alarmist. But let’s imagine that Sotomayor retires on Thursday and that Biden immediately names a successor. Would her successor be a slam dunk for Senate confirmation? Would the Democrats be able to prevent a filibuster? Or would special maneuvering be required to get the successor across the finish line before Trump and the Republican Senate take office, shut Biden’s nominee out, and put their own conservative justice onto the bench? It seems to my untrained eye that there is less risk in Sotomayor staying on than there is risk in trying to make a change now.
Finally, the more the country sees of the campus protestors—this time denigrating our veterans—the more the public comes to reject them. That’s a good thing. That’s how the social contract works. Rejecting the deranged protestors disincentivizes them from further protests.
Yes, Sotomayor resigning now would be much too risky.
” When the Presidents answered (correctly) that “it depends”…’
This is embodies the Achille’s heal of the hyper-rational.
What Achille’s heal? Avoiding categorical answers to questions where one lacks adequate information? ISTM we’re in far more danger from the hypo-rational.
It was surely an inept performance politically, but why blame rationality? What’s your preferred alternative?
From NYT, question asked by Stefanik:
“Does calling for the genocide of Jews violate Harvard’s rules on bullying and harassment?” she demanded of Claudine Gay, the new president of Harvard University.
“It can be, depending on the context,” Dr. Gay responded.
“What’s the context?” Ms. Stefanik shot back.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/07/us/politics/elise-stefanik-antisemitism-congress.html
Talking about context doesn’t seem right to me here. When it can possibly be right?
Just speculating here, but it seems hypo-rational of her white-shoe legal team to not anticipate that kind of followup question to a “depends on the context” response. She was clearly not adequately prepped for the hearing.
And her whole testimony seemed based on hypo-rational wishful thinking that her entitled status at Harvard would automagically carry over into the Congressional hearings.
The hyper-rationalism is the editorial comment “(correctly)”– a less one-dimensional, more grounded view on the situation would lead to seeing the political context and so how ridiculous the answer was.
I truly do not understand how our host’s editorial use of “(correctly)” indicates excessive rationality, rationalisation, or anything else related to rationalism. Please expand on this.
Only in a narrow, technical sense is it correct to assert that whether calling for the genocide of Jews violates rules against harassment depends on context. (E.g., if someone was quoting Hitler).
Not so narrow and technical, unless one considers the First Amendment and its case law to be narrow technicalities.
Re: taxes – why is it that legislation to decrease taxes is framed as “costing money”? It is our money in the first place, not the government’s. By reducing taxes, the govt. is not incurring a “cost”, as defined as spending; it is taking in less revenue (or potentially more revenue, as illustrated by the Laffer curve).
Also, corporations don’t pay taxes – customers do.
Think about it in simple terms: you are a single person consulting firm. You charge your client $100k per year for your services. That $100k includes $30k in taxes that you pay, leaving you with $70k to pay expenses, rent, food, etc., and maybe put $10k in profit in the bank. Now, taxes get raised by 10%, so you now only have $60k at the end of the year. Do you say, well, so much for my savings account, because it’s your civic duty to pay more taxes? No, you look for some efficiency improvements to offset some of the increase, and then you raise your consulting fee so that you can still have $70k to cover expenses and maintain your $10k profit. Same thing happens at big corporations on a larger scale.
The risk is that you may not be able to raise your prices enough to pass the tax on to your customers. If what you are selling has a legally fixed price, like medical services in Canada, then you pay the tax increase right out of your pocket. The tax increase is transparent to the consumer. This is the extreme case for illustration. There are other free-market reasons why you may not be able to pass on the tax increase. If demand for what you sell is highly elastic, your customers may simply buy less from you if you try to raise your price. Customers may be able to buy the same thing from foreign corporations who don’t pay taxes to Uncle Sam. (This is where firms faced with an increase in the corporate tax might find themselves supporting tariffs on imports to keep that business at home.)
For these reasons, corporate America should lobby to reduce taxes on its profits and not rely on passing them on. That they do is why corporate taxes can be pushed down. It is a necessary anti-democratic political activity to protect shareholder value. And if they fall in America, Canada will be forced to follow suit in order to stem capital flight.
That is not a good description of a single person consulting firm. No single person consulting firm is paying corporate taxes. Ever. A whopping 95% of business are pass-through. Pass-through corporations pay individual income tax, not corporate.
Expenses for the business are deductions, and thus reduce the amount of taxes. The profit you make for the business is also your take home, i.e. pass-through company. So, in your analogy, your expenses could be 40K especially since you must pay both employer and employee SSI and Medicare. Thus reducing your business income to 60K, which in the state of Colorado means you pay about 13K in total taxes: including employee SSI and Medicare, which as business expenses those are already deducted, so lets call the income taxes 8K. Leaving you with 52K. You pay your rent/mortgage and food from that. And if your personal expenses are low, you can put 10K in the bank still.
Now, what happens when the Feds decide to raise individual income taxes by 10%, which is most analogous to your scenario? In that case, your 8K goes to 8.5K because part of your 8K was Colorado income tax. So you adjust your 100K fee to 100.5K and end up with the same take home. So, 10% increase in taxes should cause a .5% increase to the consumer in my more valid scenario.
But worse, in that scenario, all the salaried and waged employees just had their income taxes increased too. Which means the big corporations will either ignore it, and every employee outside the C-suite will take an effective cut in wages; or the big corporation will increase their pay and have more expenses, thus decreasing their net revenue and thus their taxes go down (unless the Feds increased the corporate tax as well). Of course, big corporations need their net revenue to increase for shareholder value, and thus they will pass on some of the increase to customers. And those customers are also the workers from all the companies, whose effective salary was just decreased or at best held steady. Thus, inflationary. Or perhaps the big corporation will lay off workers. But the key is the big corporations are going to pass on increases anyway because they must pad their ROI for shareholders – a tiny fraction of which is increased corporate taxes. Either way, inflationary. Since it is inflationary, that consultant probably wants to increase the 100K fee to 102K anyway because the overall economy in good times better be slightly inflationary.
The point is that big corporations are never the same issue as that 95% of corporations that are pass through. They run under a completely different set of rules. If you change the corporate tax, you only affect 5% of companies.
Dragon, I completely understand your point. I was attempting to just illustrate a simple case, and I perhaps should have added that this was not realistic in terms of a typical single-proprietor business.
On the other hand, we do agree on the point I was trying to make: big corporations will pass on some of the tax increase to their customers. Per your point, their concern is ROI for shareholders of course. I also concur that the cycle you mention is causes prices to rise in a chain reaction based on this.
Your post clarifies this greatly, thank you for that.
Also, per Leslie’s point, an increase in corporate tax can push companies to push for tariffs on goods from countries with lower tax rates as a tool to allow for increases in prices without losing price competitiveness.
Darryl’s sketch is pretty close to how it does work for an incorporated solo contractor in Canada, which is why I found myself grooving along. An increase in the corporate tax rate has to be absorbed, compensated for through improved efficiency, or offset through higher prices or increased sales volume. The least painful choice, a price increase, may not be possible.
To add, governments may, and often do, adjust corporate tax rates without changing personal rates. So if the corporate rate goes up, the Canadian small business in my example will see a higher tax bill without there being, necessarily, any change in the personal rates paid by its employees or in the wages paid by the business deductible in its hands. Nor will there, necessarily, be any change in the personal tax on the salary or dividends the owner of the corporation takes out for himself.
Disclaimer: this is how it works for incorporated professionals like physicians, the only small-business corporation I am personally familiar with. An unincorporated sole proprietor or partner pays the personal rate on the entire profit of the practice which would be more similar to Dragon’s scenario. Many small business people need to draw their entire profit to fund their living expenses and personal savings. They will end up paying the personal rate on that profit, as it comes out of the business, even if they are incorporated. (There are other good reasons to be incorporated, of course.)
My point was actually a little more that the big corporations use any excuse to raise prices so they can far exceed record profits. They did it during the pandemic, they do it now. As I tried to explain, the cost of increased taxes is a tiny fraction of any increase in the cost of goods and services. The more they complain about taxes, the more consumers think the increase is from taxes – but it isn’t. Quick proof: did cutting taxes anytime since 1980 ever reduce the cost of goods and services? Nope.
In the US (I don’t know about Canada), the C-suite also get much of their compensation in stock. Then they mortgage the stock so they never sell it and never pay capital gains taxes. All their personal expenses are paid from the loans, even for yachts. But more importantly, all their political contributions to buy politicians are paid from their loans. And the politicians are happy to give them even more tax breaks so they will retain more and more wealth and buy more and more politicians. Because the Supreme Court ruled bribery isn’t bribery, it is just a gratuity/tip.
This has morphed from a technical discussion of tax policy to a screed against corporate greed which I don’t find particularly interesting. So I’ll pass.
Oh yuck, he wants the creep Matt Gaetz for Attorney General.