I’ll be occupied most of the day, so here’s your chance to weigh in on anything. There are lots of questions you can discuss, but feel free to vent about what’s on your mind.
1.) The Hamas/Israel war. I find myself perhaps overly occupied with this, perhaps because I was in Israel only two weeks before it started, but also because it tweaks my Jewish DNA. What’s your take? Will Israel really destroy Hamas? If it does, who will govern Gaza? Should Israel have attacked Gaza in the first place? Is there any more it can do to avoid the deaths of Palestinian civilians.
2.) Trump: Many people are now predicting that he’s a shoo-in for President next year, a possibility that frightens me greatly. One of them is Andrew Sullivan, whose sensors detect a move towards Trump:
But the moment I knew his presidency was almost certain was when the Brexit result was announced in June, when everyone still assumed Hillary was a shoo-in. Something was stirring. And that’s why, after my annual trip back to Britain last week, I’m feeling the nausea again.
The mood is just ugly — a deep pessimism suffused with barely stifled fury. It’s not quite right or left, as we used to understand those things. It’s more irrational than that, and less predictable. A usually mild-mannered, anti-Brexit friend of mine told me that the lockdowns had filled him with a ragethat was as unfamiliar to him as it was white-hot. Another friend talked about the perils of polarization, and then, as we went back to her house for a cup of tea, I noticed she had an enormous EU flag covering her entire front window. A pollster friend who specializes in focus groups said that pessimism and anger were starker now than ever: almost 80 percent, he said, saw their country as in a “steep decline” — Tories and Labourites, for different and often opposing reasons.
. . . And Gallup’s latest polling on how the public feels about crime should terrify the Democrats. Coming back to DC this week after seven months away, I’m struck by how stark the decline has become. It says something when a city is experiencing a massive wave of carjackings, bars the cops from pursuing them, and just hands out free AirTags so you can track your stolen car yourself.
There’s also a Washington Post op-ed by Robert Kagan, “A Trump dictatorship is increasingly inevitable. We should stop pretending.”
Let’s stop the wishful thinking and face the stark reality: There is a clear path to dictatorship in the United States, and it is getting shorter every day. In 13 weeks, Donald Trump will have locked up the Republican nomination. In the RealClearPolitics poll average (for the period from Nov. 9 to 20), Trump leads his nearest competitor by 47 points and leads the rest of the field combined by 27 points. The idea that he is unelectable in the general election is nonsense — he is tied or ahead of President Biden in all the latest polls — stripping other Republican challengers of their own stated reasons for existence. The fact that many Americans might prefer other candidates, much ballyhooed by such political sages as Karl Rove, will soon become irrelevant when millions of Republican voters turn out to choose the person whom no one allegedly wants.
Is Trump’s election really that certain, even if he’s convicted of felonies (something that would probably happen after the election)? Will he be able to pardon himself? (He can’t do that for state crimes.)
3.) Why are there so many waxing parlors in Cambridge?
If there aren’t at least 50 responses by the end of the day, I’ll be very sad.
Having just come off of surgery, I don’t really want to get into the Israel/Hamas war or orange Cheeto.
On my mind :
…. not sure where to start.
… what are they waxing, exactly? I presume not cars. Why? Well – supply/demand : everyone’s got an _____ and they all could use a wax job…?
Happy Saturday, WEIT readers!
Oh – weed, of course – get baked and then waxed – makes sense… and painlessly smooth skin!
Well yes, Stephen Bero, just who is the incomparable Thyroid Planet?
I feel sure it’s hidden in an anagram.
Ropey Hand Tilt?
Hardly Into Pet?
Ian Thy Droplet?
Only Death Trip?
No, I don’t think I have cracked it yet. I’ll keep trying, but really I prefer the mystery.
Yes, I’m resigned to embracing the mystery.
Wrt Trump I’m not American but fwiw can make an observation in the spirit of Sullivan’s British correspondents. The Liberal Party of Canada is Our Natural Governing Party. Sadly its current leaders are unprincipled and faithless corporate consultant types, and their partners in the current coalition government are champagne socialists in bespoke suits. So although I’m a lifelong Liberal and centrist I’m getting ready for the first time to vote for a Conservative Party candidate in the next federal election. Can’t really believe I’m saying that “out loud”.
Right now I am banking on the hope that once the election campaigns really get started, post Trump nomination, that people from the political center and leftward will actually wake up and realize that letting Trump be elected will be a for-real-its-not-abstract-its-goddam-happening-right-now crises. In this view, the polls that are out now cannot reflect where we will be some months from now.
Well said, and I’ll add one thing: I’m not even looking at polls eleven months out. That’s a mug’s game.
While what you say about the Liberal and NDP leadership may be true, please consider how abysmally awful the leader of the CPC is before you vote. A government of science-deniers isn’t what we need now.
Thanks. Sure I share your concern about some Conservative policies. I’m a professional scientist & I know exactly what Poilievre is. Trudeau is just a different flavour of reality denier (cf. teddy bears in Kamloops).
I’m still thinking about voting Conservative because the Liberals have had such terrible effects on our economy, oil & gas development, civil rights, the environment, culture, pandemic management, the civil service, relationships with other countries, and the Canadian military.
The only reason I can think of right now not to vote Conservative is if my local Conservative riding association nominates another MP candidate who is a homophobic religious lunatic. Those folks are truly dangerous.
https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/conservatives-drop-burnaby-north-seymour-candidate-after-homophobic-comments
[edit to add: I agree with Rosemary@15 that electing a conservative government will also mean resurgent woke extremism, and it’s another cost to voting Conservative that I should take into account.]
In what way would a religious homophobic back-bencher MP be “dangerous” (as opposed to merely distasteful) in an elected dictatorship that is run out of the Prime Minster’s office, Mike? The party leaders purge these expendable candidates (as they did Ms. Leung) not to keep them from having any dangerous power in office (or any independent viewpoint diversity at all) but because they are bad for the party brand in more contestable regions, such as the Greater Toronto Area, which is where the Conservatives must win a lot of close races (and did under Stephen Harper) if they are to make third time against Trudeau the charm. In Vancouver, I don’t think it matters if the Tories run anyone at all.
None of those beefs you describe can be fixed by a Conservative government because they are engrained in the Canadian culture: “This is who we are.” All parties (and indeed all Canadians I think) are too afraid of fundamentalist Islam and militant Native activism to do anything about either.
My prediction (my ballot is secret) is that the Conservatives will win a few more seats than any other party but will be unable to find another party to support them in the House, leaving us with a diminished Liberal-NDP socialist quasi-coalition. This is a long prediction given that an election could be nearly two years away. The Economist thinks that if JT can hold out until after the U.S. election, he will be a shoo-in if Donald Trump wins.
Sure even if elected Leung could not get into government. If “dangerous” is the wrong adjective, maybe “corrosive” is better (like Bobert or MTJ or The Squad). I agree with your analysis of the election. I hope you’re wrong about the culture.
I am saying out loud also. Trudeaus LPC is riven with SJ Ideology, unsustainable immigration, poor fiscal management and it goes on. The most unpopular Canadian PM for decades and still he pontificates even his wife got bored.
Will the Conservatives under Polivier be better? arguably couldn’t be worse or could they? Despite recent conferences he still seems hesitant on some serious issues, the whole gender nonsense springs to mind and the immigration policy seems worrying familiar. Multiculturalism is proven to be a failed idea, just looking at Europe shows the disaster and still politicians seem not to notice the polls, except maybe in Holland recently. People just do not want to be submerged by incomers with no intention of integrating and are openly hostile to values and tradition and the ageing demographic excuse doesn’t hold water. I see my neighbours children living in their parents basements because of housing and they openly admit to not having children in an environment of uncertainty and who can blame them. They do not want a Provincial or Federal administration telling them that their intention is to double the population in ten years when they cannot manage a sustainable economic policy now.
I renmain optimistic and will definitely vote against my Federal LPC “benchwarmer”
Ha yes mine is a benchwarmer too. Lovely guy, but not the sharpest knife in the drawer.
Also need to apologize: the teddy bears were at Cowessess (Saskatchewan), not Kamloops (BC). There was so much pandering that summer one can hardly keep track 🙁
Two thoughts on the war. First, I am pessimistic that Hamas can be “destroyed.” Even if the current structure and leadership is, absent real progress towards a permanent and independent status for Palestinians in both Gaza and the West Bank, it will only be a matter of time until a new terrorist organization (likely even more like ISIS) will arise.
So that leads to my second point. Assuming Hamas is neutralized in the short term, what then? Here, I highly recommend a recent podcast interview of Amir Tabon, an Israeli journalist and October 7 survivor, on The Bulwark Podcast (available along with transcript at https://www.thebulwark.com/podcast-episode/amir-tibon-terrible-choices-for-israel-2/). His prognosis: “some kind of a Palestinian entity that governs Gaza with support of Egypt and the US is the least terrible option right now.” I agree with him, however the road to that kind of solution is not at all clear.
If, by some miracle, a two-state compromise does finally emerge, Hamas’ latest operation makes sure that the Palestinian state will be isolated and poor. In theory (utterly obsolete), Palestinian development could be facilitated by economic ties to the more advanced economy and technology of neighboring Israel. But NOW, Israel is sure to avoid any relationship with any Palestinian polity, which will be separated from its western neighbor by an impregnable, fortified, barrier wall. The advanced technology of Israel will benefit other Arab states, e.g. those of the Gulf, which will themselves keep their distance from the “Palestine” basket case. Hamas has achieved the culmination of “missing no opportunity to miss an opportunity”.
I assume they’ll be selling the technology for that back to Trump (45+47…) to install along the Southern and Northern borders. Though the economics of getting Mexico/ Canada to pay for it will remain as challenging as ever.
How he’s going to get around communications with Alaska, Hawaii, the other Pacific dependencies and (whatever status Puerto Rica has), I have no idea. He’ll probably sell them back to Putin as being the simplest solution. But he may leave that for his third presidency. Or he may leave it on the to-do list for whichever of his children he selects to be President 48. That’s going to be a bun fight to watch!
Following our host’s comments about UNRWA in today’s Hili, I just came across this: https://x.com/DrEliDavid/status/1730659512258879907
A new peer-reviewed analysis of data about puberty blockers and mental health has been published. It finds that the mental health of 34% of youth actually “reliably deteriorated”. https://x.com/segm_ebm/status/1730458209704698133
Thanks for that. I wonder if we can ever really find much truth in this, given all the variables involved, and how kids in this situation are so fragile to begin with.
How does that compare to people who are going through some sort of crisis and are blocked from getting puberty blockers? More deterioration or less?
Yes, there are never control groups in the children’s gender experiments so we never properly know. The new paper is just a re-evaluation of data from an earlier study.
With regard to the Gaza situation and with the benefit of hindsight, would it not have been more correct for Israel to simply issue an ultimatum to the people of Gaza themselves following October 7th to hand over all Hamas leaders within a certain period of time, otherwise then the total destruction of their hideouts would be initiated? That way the Gazan population might possibly have had chance to consider their options and avoid the destruction that has befallen them.
The chance that that ultimatum would have worked is approximately 0%. You do realize that, don’t you? And, of course, Hamas was RULING Gaza. Who would ensure that Hamas leaders would be handed over.
I’m sorry, but your solution is a non-starter.
Nevertheless, Israel would magnanimously have given the people the chance to do something! If that had completely failed it would confirm to the world that the Gazan population were fully under Hamas’s grip, and that there was therefore zero possibility for a non-destructive resolution
We already know it would not work. Although perhaps you are wishing for some sort of early demonstration that conveys virtue and moral higher ground on the part of Israel, so parts of the world might be less condemning of it once the war inevitably started.
But countries (led by their leaders) can’t work that way. They literally cannot manage a run-up to knock-down war like its a spat on Twitter, where how one looks sympathetic and empathic gets you more ‘likes’ in world opinion than the other side. A real leadership has to put its own people first. Full time. Every time.
The Star Trek Anthem (I forget the artists) parodied that decades ago : “We come in peace. Shoot to kill!”
It’s called “Star Trekkin'” and it was released by a band called “The Firm”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FCARADb9asE
Watch the video at your own risk. It’s a bit of an ear worm.
Having seen how Hamas responded to rivals in Fatah and, even more so, how alleged “collaborators with Israel” have been summarily executed in the recent past I can’t see your suggestion working.
Amnesty International’s report can be downloaded here: https://www.amnesty.org/en/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/MDE2116432015ENGLISH.pdf
They made sure to slip in plenty of condemnation of Israel, but their findings on the barbarism of Hamas are plain – including documenting the use of al-Shifa hospital for torture and the disposal of bodies in the hospital’s morgue.
Hamas is indeed repressing Palestinians but not only were they voted in, the entirety of the “Palestinian nation” is based in Jew/Israeli/Western/Infidel hatred.
A big problem here is that I think secular westerners can’t get their head around the fact that other people value things differently.
Palestinians are ALL IN on the “throw the Jews into the sea”, kill ’em all ideology. In 30 years of studying this, with a degree in it and graduate work, studying Arabic and extensive travel there I have never met one who doesn’t take destroy Israel as a legitimate goal. A given. It is an organizing ideology in itself.
We MUST get our heads around that. Other people are not “just like us”. I lived in Japan as a young man and speak Japanese. My friends who visit there say;”Dave,, everything in Japan is different, they value very different things….” Which is true. I am a big Japanophile. But those same friends can’t imagine those in the Arab world/Islamosphere have equally different values to our own, all be them not positive like in Japan. Nations, cultures, people all differ enormously.
D.A.
NYC
*my recent article, variously syndicated:
https://themoderatevoice.com/there-are-no-two-sides-in-gaza/
For other reasons, I was reading some meta-SF last night and came (back) across one of “Niven’s Laws” (a trope within SF) : “There exist minds that think as well as you do, but differently.”
Indeed, people do have a problem with this. Have had for all of recorded history, AFAICT. It may be an intrinsic, natural, selected part of humans’ evolved social reflexes. Which doesn’t stop it from being extremely dangerous.
On your article and the Israel situation. Exactly.
On Japan, I am trying to learn Japanese now as I do want to visit and experience a somewhat different culture than my European/Australian wrapping.
Japan is enticing in its weirdness and its modernness and advancements and traditions.
I wonder, with a language like Japanese could they be anything other than weird.
Only 2000 Kanji to go.
It gets easier the more kanji you learn. I found the first 200 or so difficult, but once you get used to the common elements that make up the more difficult-looking ones, the patterns fall into place.
I suppose the government of Israel must have argued about the right response to the act of war that Hamas, as the government of Gaza, carried out against it on 7 Oct. It is clear that a state-sanctioned act of war involving your armed forces is a causus belli for going straight to a declaration of war if you want to (as the United States did against Japan after the attack on Hawaii in 1941.) No need for ultimata first.
An ultimatum is tricky, diplomatically. You have to be sure about what you hope to get from it and that the likely payoff is better than a military solution. You issue one only when another state (and you issue them only to state leaders with executive power, not to the people) has severely wronged you but has not committed an outright act of war. You are saying that if the other side accepts, by the deadline, the ultimatum demanding some kind of abject humiliation or indemnity you won’t declare war, but if he rejects it, you will. Either way you have to follow through.
The thinking behind an ultimatum is that avoiding war is better for you, (by getting satisfaction without going to war), not better for the enemy or his people. If war against a weaker enemy is a better bet for you, and the enemy has already committed an act of war, there is no rational reason to issue an ultimatum. Just declare war and smite him.
The difficulty with an ultimatum to Gazans would have been that there would be no way for Israel to assess compliance. What if the people of Gaza had coughed up a couple of inept battalion commanders about to be terminated anyway and said that’s all they could get? The rest were dug into barricaded tunnels behind armed guards. Would that have counted as compliance, preventing Israel from lawfully going to war? Much of the world would insist that it was and Israel’s diplomatic position would have been weakened. The world does respect resoluteness — it fears it because it can so rarely find it in itself — even if it hates Jews.
Israel instead declared war and has as its goal the total destruction of Hamas and its hideouts, just as you posit the Gazans were going to do for them under the terms of an ultimatum. An actual ultimatum would not have affected that calculus, except to delay what Israel had decided it needed to do.
If you are willing to take sides in this war, you have to be willing to stop caring about the other side’s civilians, particularly what might have been but wasn’t. Jus ad bellum and jus in belli are two different things. Concern for the latter doesn’t negate the former. There aren’t very many wars where the former trumps the latter. This is one of them.
Now, off to read David Anderson‘s article.
I wonder if the waxing is an Iranian/Persian expat thing. Friends of ours live in what has become an enclave of delightfully secular Iranian exiles and the proliferation of waxing studios on Yonge Street is striking, all with signs in Farsi and English. FWIW they mostly support Israel against Hamas. A contingent schlepped all the way downtown to speak at the pro-Israel rally last month. So this comment might be just an excuse for a shout-out to secular Iranians.
I second that shout-out.
When we were granted our Canadian Citizenship back in 2012 we sat next to a secular Iranian family and became friends and this revealed quite an expat community of like people keen to fully integrate into Canada whilst not totally abandoning their heritage. If only more were so!
I visited Iran with the RAF prior to the removal of the Shah and despite the brevity I enjoyed it very much.
I hope that the population can rid themselves of the insane theocracy that dominates now.
Hello PCCE. Wish the professor a great week-end!
Hope this comment can count as one of the fifty responses…
I’m going to take a day off from torturing myself over the Israel/Hamas war. The war and all its associated mishagas are taking their toll.
Waxing parlors? I will refrain from commenting on why there we so many in Harvard Square, but I’m definitely curious. Maybe you can ask around while you’re there, Jerry. 🙂
I doubt Israel’s offensive in Gaza will eradicate Hamas, but then, what else could Israel do? Every day a two-state solution seems more distant, but again, what other solution would bring peace to the region?
10/7 made me realize that I didn’t know enough about the whole mess. So let me recommend two books that have been very helpful in my remedial self-education:
1. Benny Morris, “One State, Two States: Resolving the Israel/Palestine Conflict.” It’s an excellent overview of the history of the situation, from a well-respected historian. The only problem is that he talks a lot about specific locations–towns, rivers, lines, etc., assuming more familiarity with the geography of the region than is probably warranted. Which is where my item #2 comes in.
2. Martin Gilbert, “The Routledge Atlas of the Arab-Israeli Conflict 10th Edition.” (Don’t get this on Kindle; you need a physical copy.) This excellent little book has over 200 relevant maps. That might seem excessive at first, but it’s not. In fact, it’s still not enough. I especially wanted more from the distant past (3000 years ago to the 19th century, which is where the book picks up). But that quibble aside, having fairly detailed maps of where various events occurred has been enormously clarifying to me. And the book isn’t just bare maps; each map has many little text boxes explaining what’s being depicted. It really brings home the constancy of the threat the Jews have lived under since even before Israel’s establishment as a state.
Between those two books, I feel like I have a pretty solid grasp on the overall picture of the last 100 years in the region.
There’s a third that I can’t recommend yet, because I’m only about 10% of the way through it. But I have high hopes for it providing a more detailed account of roughly the 1990-2005 period, i.e., the evolution of the Oslo process, and specifically America’s role in what happened: Aaron David Miller, “The Much Too Promised Land: America’s Elusive Search for Arab-Israeli Peace.” The author was a member of the US negotiating team, and speaks both Hebrew and Arabic. And from what I’ve seen so far, he’s a good writer. I’m optimistic that this will be a useful third book to get into my brain.
Thanks for the tip Robert. Just ordered Gilbert’s tenth edition to be delivered Thursday. Did an online “look inside” and am excited about this volume. They show two earlier maps, one back to 1000BCE. Thanks again for participating in WEIT.
That reminded me of Nina Paley’s animation, “This Land is Mine”: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hnnz-c5tx5I
Thank you for that link. Deserves many more views than it got.
I have a feeling that I first came across it here at WEIT a while ago, but I may be mistaken.
Texas rant here: In November over 80% of voters approved amendments to the state constitution granting tax cuts for property owners and COLAs for retired teachers. As a property owner, retired teacher, and former election worker, I am outraged that the amendments can’t be implemented because a tiny minority of right-wing cranks have filed suit questioning the legitimacy of election procedures in seven counties. Two of these suits have been filed by a former Californian, a real estate salesman, who is obviously trying to get his name known so I’m not naming him. We can look forward to more of this s**t in the election year to come. What’s to be done?
I can’t imagine why conservatives of any stripe would be against tax cuts. Over here in Michigan, tax cuts and abortion laws seem to be the only thing they campaign about.
It’s the election system they’re against, and damn the collateral damage.
Ok, I’m only leaving a comment because you blackmailed us all by indicating you’d be heartbroken if we didn’t. This is not a good way to move the masses. 🙂 Still, here I am.
1) Hamas/war. I don’t see a two-state solution, I don’t think Hamas is warring for statehood (or for that matter, even for land rights), Hamas is warring for a caliphate, its grievances go beyond Israel; Hamas is warring against western civilization, the war is civilizational. A two state solution will not solve an ideological/theological impasse. Israel must be recognized as a sovereign nation by the Arab world, this can happen, the Saudi’s and UAE are (almost there). The suffering masses in Gaza (and they *are* suffering) must be absorbed by Egypt and Jordan. Add to this, a two-state-solution will not be accepted (it never has been) by the Palestinians, no matter how this incarnation of the war ends. There’s also the “small” problem of the venomous hatred toward jews, inculcated in the Arab population by Hamas and similar proxies serving Iran. This is an interesting listen: https://www.fdd.org/podcasts/2023/12/01/what-hamas-believes/. And no you aren’t obsessing about Israel. Israel is the canary in the coal mine
2) I don’t like Trump. I also don’t think a second Trump presidency will be a dictatorship (what would that look like? the US has too many safeguards in place, like congress), we need to tone down the *derangement* rhetoric – at least a bit. Of course, I could be wrong, the DEMS may lose both houses, Trump may decide to go the *revenge* route and we may have scorched earth policies governing us at every turn. Note** there were a couple things (at least) Trump was right about; the unholy mess at the border and the Abraham accords.
I fervently hope he will not be our next President, but mostly (from my perspective) because the woke-fever will become much worse -unbearable- under a 2nd Trump presidency. The unhinged will have a legitimate target to rail against. There’ll be no “space” for pushback. Any progress we made will be set back; this worries me the most.
3) Why are there so many waxing parlors in Cambridge?
Things are getting hairy out there.
Great post, Rosemary!
Agree.
Trump is a liar and a bully and a horrible person. I am one of the many homeless independent voters out there and would be happy for him to disappear.
One of the worst parts about a Trump return would be the response on the left. I remember the summer of 2020 wondering how we would get kids back in school, ventilation, etc. Then in early July Trump threatened that schools had to reopen. That was that, the left had to be against it because Trump was for it. I so wish he had just shut up, but we all know he won’t or can’t.
Trump was good on the policies you mentioned, as well as recognizing title IX protections for female sex, not gender.
Susan, yes, Title IX and protections for females. A big worry. We are (at the moment) slowly but surely winning aspects of this “battle”. It’s difficult to see that progress continuing under Trump. His bombast and blowhard rhetoric (on its own) may ruin it for females.
Well put. Islam is an existential global risk and we all should be aware and prepare.
Israel should be looking to reduce all of Gaza to rubble and kill every enemy who appears. They have no alternative to survive. War is nasty defeat is nastier.
I predicted the first Trump experience and whilst not either in the US or a USian I also do not see a second term as a “ dictatorship” we shall see as it looks likely he will be elected.
1) Of course Hamas has dealt a significant set-back to peace accords between Israel and Saudi Arabia, I think mainly bc the Saudis don’t dare more forward on that while its populace is watching the heavy destruction in Gaza. I think that was a main reason why Hamas had attacked. But the war will end, eventually, and the process of recognizing Israel may yet continue. A real key-stone event would be the end of the Iranian regime, as without that, Hamas or any such replacement will have much shallower pockets to fund their war. I don’t know how Iran can ever be made to change, though.
2) A Trump presidency will probably be a temporary dictatorship, of sorts. But that too will end. What amazes me is how well our safeguards actually worked at critical points. It was like watching a nuclear reactor almost go to melt-down. Almost. But it didn’t happen. After his second term is over, I think we will see republican toadies lining up to say “Trump? Trump who? I never liked the guy!” The spell will finally be broken.
3) I wish Jerry would pop into one of those waxing parlors to see who is in there.
1 (“The suffering masses in Gaza (and they *are* suffering) must be absorbed by Egypt and Jordan”) is a proposal of a crime, violating the Statute of Rome, Geneva Accords, and Customary International Law.
I am continually surprised that so many (MSM) seem surprised that more of the American hostages have not been released. They are one of Hamas’ greatest assets. They constrain Biden, who in turn constrains Netanyahu. Strategically, Hamas needs to keep Americans for leverage as long as Hamas and the hostages exist.
Yes, you are right.
Venting. I can do that. I’m one of the really angry ones. For so many reasons…
TRUMP / A democracy that would allow him to run after what he’s said and done — supported storming the capitol, throwing his VP under the bus, saying he’d be happy to our first dictator, suspending the constitution, etc. That alone… is insane.
THE FAR LEFT® / Efforts in swapping gender identify for biological sex, capturing the language within so many organizations and businesses, succeeded. Just saying a woman is “an adult human female,” will get you bullied, cancelled or assaulted. Insane.
HAMAS / Antisemitism has always been around, but I didn’t expect the overwhelming, mostly positive support for a terrorist group committed to the most extreme, continuing cruelty— or the outright denial that Hamas caused it. Insane.
THE MEDIA / The pandemic gave us… Science versus Wearing A Mask. Which made no logical sense, but TheMedia loved it as did The Left and The Right. Battle lines were drawn, memes were made, it was one or the other, especially on Facebook. Easy to sort us. Humans have been binarized. Good short-term business decision.
Which I detest, but, “it is what it is,” as they used to say. I don’t know the current phrase is, but I’m sure ChatGPT would be able to tell me.
As usual I agree with you on all points Su.
D.A.
NYC
As for Trump, I cannot believe people support him over Biden. Trump is a criminal Biden is old, but not that much older than the criminal and much more coherent. The economy is peaking, unemployment is low, infra-structure repair is rolling along. The US people should be positive about Biden. I just don’t get (and abhor) the support for Trump. I am not sure where I will go if he is elected. I am afraid there is no escaping him anywhere. So, things are depressing now.
I thought the same about Ronald Raygun’s presidency, so I left the country. It’s a big world out there, and even considering the expense and hassles of immigration there could very well be somewhere you find preferable. If you are seriously considering this then start early (e.g. deciding on a destination and getting any necessary visas) — joining a rush for the exits may be too late.
The morning after Trump was first elected I told a colleague that I would be moving out of the country. Well, Biden was elected before I finally got my affairs in order but, profoundly concerned about a possible return of the demented traitor, I eventually left.
My colleague recently told me that she wishes she could have been able to leave too.
“The mood is just ugly — a deep pessimism suffused with barely stifled fury”.
No doubt Andrew Sullivan has reported his friends’ views accurately; but they’re very one-dimensional and not at all typical of everybody here in the UK. There is a general sense that the Tory Government is third-rate and exhausted, and is incapable of much except short-term gestures that have little impact, and certainly have no effect on their poll ratings.
On the other hand, there is some confidence that a Labour Government, possibly supported by the Lib Dems, would be patriotic, competent and internationalist. The economy is struggling, partly due to Brexit, but is nowhere near as bad as Sullivan’s pals make out.
The glass is half full. Sullivan’s friends see it as half empty, but this is unduly pessimistic. (Of course, to the engineer in the old joke, this means that the glass is twice as big as it needs to be).
Well said. Totally agree.
As long as Iran is the way it is, will anything change? We talk about Hamas not doing anything constructive in Gaza since they came to power. Well you can say the same thing about Iran. They pauper their population in order to finance Hezbollah and Hamas. Iran doesn’t want a resolution to the Israeli/Palestinian situation. And talking to them doesn’t work.
As for trump with all the help he got from the illiberal left I was surprised he didn’t get reelected the first time.
“3.) Why are there so many waxing parlors in Cambridge?”
I read this as “why are there so many waxwing parlours in Cambridge” and thought, how nice, places where you can go and drink coffee while you interact with those pretty little birds.
Hey, I did too, as this is a very bird-friendly site!
I understand why Trump anxiety is looming and real and pundits like Sullivan love to stir the pot; it’s what they get paid for. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. 11 months is a LONG time. IIRC Obama was also looking like a loser in 2011 vs. McCain at this time. Recent polling tells us polling isn’t reliable nowadays. Biden hasn’t even started campaigning yet and he has a lot of dosh, a lot of accomplishments and a lot of ammunition. The economy is improving and most likely will continue to improve. I know the stock market isn’t the economy, but it’s at record highs. Inflation continues to fall. Trump is a loser and it has been proven over and over since 2018. Trump recently said if he becomes President he was going to abolish Obamacare (again)- more proof that he’s a loser. Trump is inextricably tied to the overturning of Roe. This really pisses off a majority of the electorate, whether red or blue, as recent elections reveal. Trump has yet to go to trial for his 4 indictments citing 44 federal charges and 47 state charges, all of them felonies. Two of the four trials start in March, 2024. Does anyone actually think he’ll dodge 91 felonies? I think it’s nigh impossible. At least for now, I’m taking the advice of Alfred E. Newman: “What, me worry?”
Hope you are right. I read Jennifer Rubin and she is not panicking. I need all the optimism I can get right now. The fact that trump probably will win the nomination speaks so ill of millions of my fellow Americans, I struggle against pessimism.
Saturday morning rant invitation. Thank you Dr. C. So my concern is with a political culture that is infected with chronic, perhaps life threatening diseases. The chronic dysfunctions include extreme jerrymanders, closed primaries, and some arcane Senate procedures, like unanimous consent for various motions. We have added new to me political tools that have amped up the dysfunction. Republican funded civil lawsuits against Bill Clinton morphed into Democratically initiated civil and criminal lawsuits against Trump and his family. Which is morphing into attacks on Biden through his son. Impeachments for consensual sex, a phone call to the Ukraine, and perhaps on the horizon, for the efforts of a president’s son to support that son’s lifestyle. Both parties are equally guilty of using underhanded tactics to try to gain a bit of a momentary political advantage. These tactics destroy our civic culture. Many folks are deeply afraid that another Trump presidency would lead to the demise of our democracy. It might, but the political and judicial guardrails held during his first term. President Biden is much more conventional but his administration is very strategically transactional. Without express Congressional approval, it forgave college loan debt to solidify for the Democrats, the votes of young college students and grads for at least a generation. It gave federal funds to farmers unless they were “white” males, again, at least in part, to buy votes. Which approach is worse? I’m not happy with either choice. I may stick with President Biden if he stays strong on support for Israel and the Jewish people. If he wavers or caves to the anti-Israel poster rippers, I’ll look for a third party.
Thank you Suzi. I’m with you. I’m weary of both parties, and the “hatred” manufactured by legacy media setting Americans against one another, misleading us, incessantly.
Give me enough time, and I can explain (quite easily) why people vote for Trump. Many have legitimate reasons and many may be F-U votes, nevertheless, they count.
“Both parties are equally guilty of using underhanded tactics to try to gain a bit of a momentary political advantage. These tactics destroy our civic culture.” – indeed, yes. And therein lies the rub, what should concern us most – our civic culture. The tribalism must end, it’s destroying us.
I too may stick with Biden if he stays strong on Israel AND on aspects of the environment. Otherwise, I’m also looking elsewhere. I may just write in my cat.
And if Biden wins, he may not last the next 4 years, meaning Harris will be president. Good lord. She speaks in tongues.
Is this the best we can do?
In good news, independents are growing – rather massively.
“The rise of the independents comes at a time of widespread public disillusion with both parties: the polarization, the vitriol, the sheer illogic of a binary system so broad that it puts Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the left-wing New York congresswoman, and Joe Manchin, the right-leaning West Virginia senator, under the same Democratic tent.”
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3836562-if-independent-were-a-party-it-could-dominate-american-politics/
To both of you, I hope that when the time comes that you realize that a vote for a third party, or an opt to not vote, is a vote for Trump. Just think about that.
Yes. Let’s not pat ourselves on the back for casting an indirect vote for trump. He is very, very, dangerous.
Depends on the state. Voting for a third party candidate will have no effect on presidential elections in NY.
No, 2024 is a year that a third party(*) candidate can win outright, not be a spoiler. NoLabels should hurry up and get their centrist on the campaign now and not wait for the conventions.
(*) Though not the Greens or Libertarians, who are extreme in their own way.
As for the Hamas-Israel thing, my take is here.
https://mikealexander.substack.com/p/a-proposal-for-the-israeli-palestinian
As for Trump I do not see him getting any of the 53% of the electorate who refused to vote for him in 2016 and 2020. If they didn’t like him then they aren’t going to like him any better now. 48% of the electorate supported Clinton, and Dems will get that too. Then there is the 1-2% who vote third party. This leaves 3.5% of true swing voters. Clinton in 2016 got none of them and she lost; Biden in 2020 got all of them and he won.
This presents the best case for Trump. Basically, he needs all of those people who will not vote for him, but don’t like Biden either to vote third party.
On the economy the issue is simple. Real wages are lower today than when Trump left office, while they were rising when Trump was in office. The unasked question is why with super low unemployment, are entry-level jobs not paying a higher wage? How about have the Senate pass a $15 minimum wage (this is what entry level wages were when Biden came to office in current dollars, so it obviously isn’t too high. Send it over to the House and when Republicans shoot it down, start running the ads that Republicans won’t give America a raise to what they were making during the pandemic because it would make Biden look good. They put politics before your well-being. And pound that message hard, so people can see a tangible benefit they could be getting were Republicans not tools of employers.
What works is the combination of a tangible benefit being received as a result of a *visible* policy from a party who communicates this to you in real time. This is how the Democrats build the New Deal coalition:
https://mikealexander.substack.com/p/how-the-new-dealers-gained-the-ability
What does not work is passing policy that creates X thousand jobs. Those who got the jobs might vote for you, but you might lose the votes of some who didn’t get jobs and who are receptive to GOP messaging about another handout to be paid for by taxpayers.
I hope not, but the current increasing rate of existential churn suggests that it may be too late to establish self-sufficient colonies beyond Earth, either on Mars, or on the Moon, or in large orbital habitats. The window of opportunity may be closing.
It’s now becoming easier for me to imagine a barricaded SpaceX Starbase launch site breached by a frothing mob intent on returning to some imagined idyllic past in supposed harmony with nature.
This scenario was convincingly shown in the innovative 1936 movie “Things to Come,” which was based mostly on the 1933 H.G. Wells book, “The Shape of Things to Come.” Toward the end of the movie, in the fictional year of 2036, a mob tries to stop — if not destroy — the first launch of an exploratory spaceship carrying a man and a woman toward the Moon.
(Given some ambiguity about such technology then, the spaceship is actually a projectile shot from an immense cannon — which, of course, we now know would kill any onboard astronauts.)
In any case, the mob is not successful in stopping the launch. In the philosophical final scene, the spaceship is visible on its trajectory toward the Moon as a bright dot against a field of stars as displayed on a massive round video screen. The ultimate fate of the astronauts — and of the world — is not clear.
Raymond Massey plays the main character, who is also the father of the woman on the spaceship. He points to the video screen and says, “All the universe or nothing?” … “Which shall it be?” … “Which shall it be?”
US politics has drifted into bizarro world in three ways, all located in the Republican Party. (1) A significant but nonetheless minority wing of that party, enthralled by an absurd grifter/windbag from the NYC outer borough, seems to be in charge of the party.(2) If the Republicans were to dump the grifter/windbag and identify with rational moderate Conservatism—like, say, the Civic Platform in Poland or the Christian Democrats in Germany and the Netherlands—they could very likely capture both the presidency and Congress; but they refuse to do so. (3) The windbag wing has also abandoned the GOP’s former military militancy, and often sounds like either admirers of Putin, or the faux-pacifists of the NATO-baiting Left.
Speaking of the latter, the Democratic Party has its small wing of fellow travellers cruising the “global Left” to music provided by Hamas, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and similar entertainers. But that is an old story. It is the GOP that is pioneering in new territory. If this is progress, what are we progressing into?
Other democracies can manage to prosecute their head of state or prime minister whilst that person is serving in office. The world does not end, democracy, however flawed, continues and parliaments govern.
I find it amazing in a democracy such as the United States, which holds itself to be the gold standard of democracy, treats its President, whilst in office as a monarch. All because of an internal Justice Department memo. If a President can be impeached, why can that same officeholder be prosecuted for a crime. There is nothing in the Constitution that provides the President with criminal immunity as I understand it.
And as a side note, in the US people can get upset for being called a pussy and the world apparently ends. But in Australia we get upset when children are murdered in schools and ban most types of firearms as a result. The second amendment is an amendment. It can, by definition, be amended.
So my point is this. The US is not a gold standard in democracy, rather it is a plutocracy governed by a duopoly incapable of fixing itself. I suspect your civil war will turn hot within a decade in a form not dissimilar to the conflict in Northern Ireland.
The deaths of the men who liberated Europe, Asia and the Pacific have been in vain
+1. I agree that the US is a pseudo-democracy, a plutocracy in reality. I underscore your observation that we will experience a hot civil war sooner than later, sad to say.
Should I move to Australia?🤔
… while at the same time, eschewing the idea that a sitting monarch can be executed by the other branches of the state (the “representative” branches such as “parliament” in many forms (example ; Russia); the military branch, if sufficient of the officers decide to do so (example : Britain) ; even the “people”, if political demagogues can motivate them sufficiently (example : France).
I suspect that Trump is actively working on managing these threats : control of the “representatives” by manipulating the electoral process ; control of the military (he’s keeping that well below the radar, but I really doubt he’s neglecting it) ; control of the “mob” (Jan 6th).
In the words of the old proverb, “interesting times”.
I’m not an American, so I don’t have a good frame of reference here. But is the right-wing/conservative part of America really in thrall of “white-supremacist” and “nazi” ideologies? Or is this a caricature that is a consequence of the woke’s PR tactics, i.e. the constant hyper-racialization of media, academia, etc? I’ve also heard of the right being characterized as “fascistic”. Is this sentiment accurate, or is this a generalization of an extreme minority to the entire right? It’s hard to get a good sense of what’s going on in America now, since your cultural institutions are largely just mouthpieces for woke ideology.
I am an American who lives in a safe, lovely, liberal suburb but whose work takes me through rural country regularly. From my experience in the farmlands of America, I can attest that white male Christian supremacy is a real thing and is on the move.
I would caution us, especially those who talk about Trump Derangement Syndrome, not to fall into Woke Derangement Syndrome. As deleterious as the post-modern influences are on science and as damaging to careers and reputation as cancel culture can be, the greater danger is from the Trump supporters, who not only threaten to use physical violence but who have done so already; the prime example being January 6, 2021. Indeed, I predict that we will see violence return with a vengeance next year, such that January 6th will look like a warm-up in retrospect.
Stephen, I am 75 years old and, as an army brat, lived in many states and a few countries. As an adult, I don’t and haven’t known any white supremicists. Not one. And I know a few Republicans. Calling Red America a bucket of white supremicists is a canard that is nothing more a partisan slur. Pull a Selena Zito and stop in a small town anywhere in America. Go into a cafe and listen to the conversation. Talk to the customers and workers there. Listen to them with an open heart. Then see whether your negative judgement of them remains as harsh as it seems here. You might be surprised.
I’ve done what you’ve suggested and Stephen is correct. In smaller town Indiana, I’ve heard many racist sentiments (eg. N’&&*?$ in the White House) and seen many F*#- Biden Flags. Ditto for non-front range Colorado
Suzi, as for “Go into a cafe and listen to the conversation.”, I overheard this at a restaurant in Plymouth, Indiana, during the time when Trump’s policy of separating families at the border was being implemented: “They could solve the problem if they put all those kids on a boat and sent it out to sea.”
Sorry, I didn’t feel like talking to those customers or listening to them with an open heart.
From NYT, “In a remarkable sign of a gradual racial realignment between the two parties, the more diverse the swing state, the farther Mr. Biden was behind, and he led only in the whitest of the six.”
It is political rhetoric, made with the intention of convincing voters that any vote contrary to the DNC’s interests will result in the apocalypse.
I spend my time between three deep red areas of the country, and a recurring part of political discussions here is amazement that people are under the impression that this is a hotbed of racism and fascism. It is not.
You will occasionally read an article in magazines like the New Yorker about a reporter who undertakes an expedition to deepest flyover country, and discovers to their shock that everyone they meet is just super nice. I suppose they expect to see Klan meetings or the hillbillies from Deliverance.
The idea that fascism is likely to take hold is particularly absurd. People are way more likely to be stubbornly independent, even to their own disadvantage.
Most of us have views on the places we have never been and the inhabitants there based on what we read or see through media, or even fictional accounts of happenings in those places. Media has always tended towards liberalism, which is expected. These days, it pretty much exclusively propagates views favorable to one specific party, the DNC. A remarkable number of people move between positions in democratic administrations and media jobs. It is not just that media folks support the DNC, they are often the same people. And they have apparently decided that there is a political advantage to portraying people in areas where they get scant support as monsters.
I have yet to talk to anyone here who does not fully support Israel in the current conflict. Our Synagogues are probably safer than any in the world.
Proton, your instinct is good. Go with it.
I have met white supremacists in America. I have known people who used the n-word with abandon; who spoke with disgust of seeing little “pickaninnys” pushed in shopping carts in Dixie; who spoke of human breeding in terms of thorough-bred horses and dogs; who God-fearing, church-going though they might be did not believe that black men had souls. You know what all these people had in common other than being white? They were all born in a time and a place in which they as young children knew—literally, physically knew—men and women who had survived the Civil War or who had grown of age during Reconstruction. You know what they have in common today? They are all dead.
Suzi, when I was a young man, I found many of those in the Deep South, particularly of the working class, terribly ignorant of people living elsewhere. But those same people, over time, also taught me something about my own ignorance. Over the last ten or fifteen years, that regional dynamic has reversed and it is the more “enlightened” zones that amaze me with their ignorance about their fellow citizens. Sastra mentioned here not long ago something along the lines of how it is so easy for us to see shades of difference among those on our own side of the aisle–I’m not that kind of liberal; I’m not that kind of progressive—but it is much harder to see the variety that exists in groups of which we are not a part and, particularly, in groups with whom we have little to do. (While I would not have said it as well, I hope I did not mischaracterize Sastra’s comment.)
And, Stephen, yes, if you travel through some parts of the Bible Belt you will see gargantuan and ugly steel crosses by the roadside, hectoring billboards telling you to prepare to meet your God, admonitions against abortion, pleas to find Jesus. Even a lot of the church goers smile at the excess. But may I ask you to show me any widespread “white male Christian supremacy,” whatever that means? I can show you some shacks with Confederate flags covering the entire front of the house; those “houses” are smaller than the size of the average garage in your presumably middle-class suburb, and the citizens of that suburb would not likely deign to let their dogs in such ramshackle places. That is not Red America; it is part of Red America. And most of the run-down shacks don’t fly Confederate flags. Moreover, there are few of the vile elements of the right today who would be caught dead in a church, let alone praying to Jesus. The only thing that the cretins, fools, and misfits of the Charlottesville march have in common with the heirs to Jerry Falwell is that they all spent time in Virginia. Well, and one other thing: many of them will vote for Donald Trump. Does that make them all the same, “the” Trump supporters? All violent? All fascists? Just like all of us in the center or liberal or progressive who will vote for the same men and women that the vile, left-wing Jew haters among us vote for. Does that make us all the same? All Hamas apologists? All antisemites? All woke lunatics? On the move . . . should we be very afraid?
Very good points, Doug.
A big part of the issue is what people read into some of the things they see and hear. The giant crosses, as an example. We always joked that giants seem to be unwelcome in those towns. But those churches are a threat to nobody. There are no witch burnings or battles between the Evangelicals and Methodists. Nobody threatens the Jews or the Amish. Most folks watch football or go fishing on Sunday, and see church as a place for weddings or funerals.
Confederate flags are another thing. It is not what was the national flag of the confederacy. Nobody wants the confederacy back. It had become after many years, just a symbol of southern identity, and rebel spirit in general. And Lynyrd Skynyrd. When US forces took Shuri castle in the battle of Okinawa, one of our soldiers raised a rebel flag over the castle. He did so out of good-hearted rivalry with Yankee soldiers for whom he would gladly give his own life.
Our new racialists needed to find hate symbols to march against, and rebel flags were an easy choice. So, after the anti-flag campaign of the last few years, people have been conditioned to see a rebel flag and read into the owner intentions that are likely not there. Most people who fly them now do so BFYTW. They do not like being told what to do by people who are themselves the real racists.
The same people campaigning against the rebel flag have tried to do the same with the “OK” sign and countless other things.
Lacking any significant supply of actual racism, it is easier to designate things as signs of racism, which allows you to assume racism in the folks that display them.
Nobody is claiming that rural areas do not have any people with fringe beliefs. Such people exist in all populations. But they tend to stay under their rocks. Someone espousing racist views here would be no more accepted than they would be anywhere else. Less so, probably, because we are a generally polite community.
“Someone espousing racist views here would be no more accepted than they would be anywhere else. Less so, probably, because we are a generally polite community.” Yes, the response to open racism in the “polite” communities would likely be an indulgent smile and a comment along the lines of “Now, now.”
Also, I wonder if you’re actually asked any Jews or Amish about their experiences in these “polite” communities.
You misunderstand my point. Polite is not the same as meek or indulgent. That means, should Antifa or the Klan, or others with similar agendas show up and start making trouble, they would find it.
Funny, but my best friend is Jewish, having moved here from NY a couple of decades ago. We have talked often about his experiences here and back home.
We are pretty close to the Amish as well. They built our barns, and we have something of a sideline renting them campsites along the river. Besides the view and great spots for swimming and fishing, we offer them privacy, which they value.
I have no doubt that there are racists in our community, just like anywhere else. If someone made open racist remarks, I am positive that more than one person would speak up and ask them to leave. I imagine word would filter back to their Mama, and it would not happen again.
That is theoretical, because I have not heard any such remarks, public or private, as far as I can remember.
Proton’s question was if it was accurate that rural areas are hotbeds of fascism and White supremacy. I am pretty confident that if it were the case, those of us who have lived here for generations would have noticed. And many of us pay attention to such things.
Why isn’t there any talk of replacing Kamala?
Everyone is acutely aware of the fact that Biden’s age means that there is a much higher than average chance that his VP will become the president. This makes the VP particularly important. In what promises to be a white-knuckle race, it’s insane for the Dems to keep a VP that they know is wildly unpopular.
Dems still act like they can easily win over Trump. They also thought Hillary would win easily. Even joked that they’d ‘hold their nose and vote for her. I doubt that Kamala would fare better.
Be of good cheer: the end of our democracy
is not nearly so near as some dumb poles
would have it appear! And if Biden keeps on
taking his Geritol and Prevagen while the GOP
crowd can only flail and bail as the Maga-Great
“Trumptanic” continues on its juridically ruled
ride to the bottom, then we’ll be okay. To quote
another one of our presidents who went through
times like these once before – All we have to
fear is fear itself! TEB
I presume you mean “polls” rather than “Poles”!
There should be a rule that if the imagined gods want killing done then they have to do it themselves by miracle. I was surprised recently to discover that there is an Old Testament story, Numbers 16, which touches on this idea. I saw the story highlighted in Skeptics annotated Bible. The Bible is a book with interesting anomalies. One of the most relevant stories to our time could be Numbers chapter 16 and verse 28, “Then Moses said, “This is how you will know that the Lord has sent me to do all these things and that it was not my idea. If these men die a natural death and experience only what usually happens to men then the Lord has not sent me. But if the Lord brings about something totally new, and the earth opens its mouth and swallows them then….it was the Lord” Well the story says Korah’s side was miraculously swallowed up and a further 14700 wiped out by plague. Anyway if the numbers chapter 16 story was real history then why didn’t Yahweh just wipe out all the unchosen ones in Egypt and Levant ? Why if Yahweh could wipe out the Egyptian first born Exodus 11&12 did he not just go the whole way and wipe them all out so the Israelites could colonize Egypt ? Why don’t we have many Bible characters asking well if Yahweh could strike those people down by miracle then why not make use of that skill more widely, why are we getting sent into mortal combat ? Why weren’t their prayers filled with expectation that a request for a surgical strike would be fulfilled ? What we actually see in the world is that no religion or superstition cult or so called devil cult has any clear advantage over the others. 2 Peter 3v4 has a skeptic voice, “the world just keeps going the same as before Christ like nothing much has changed” Wouldn’t a real devil know the secrets of the west and whisper them to the communists ? If there was a risen conquering Christ then why not just make all the unchosen ones infertile as a non violent way to rule the Earth ? Would have been surprising if a Bible character, such as Solomon, had said, “Due to our expanding universe maybe God and Satan have found themselves on the far side of the universal event horizon thus unable to have any knowledge of even our existence let alone to meddle in Earthly affairs. That is why miracles no longer happen or was it perhaps that the miracle stories were fictional ?”
Regarding the waxing parlors: follow the money, honey. Onlyfans.
Ah.
Eew.
Israel: I sincerely hope Hamas is annihilated. There will never be a solution to the Middle East, only the temporary respite of push back by Israel. You are right about most things, Jerry, but you are wrong about Trump because like Sam Harris, you are blind to his virtues. Yes, has a couple…
Virtues that make up for everything? That is hard to believe. Maybe you’re not a fan of the constitution and democracy though.
I’m pretty pessimistic about US politics generally speaking, and I saw Trump winning the White House on his first try before the votes actually came in. Despite all that, I don’t think Trump has a chance in hell of becoming president again. I do of course believe that my assessment could be wrong, but I don’t think it is.
It seems as if you have been following the most pessimistic journalism about Trump vs Biden while perhaps not being aware of much other news that is positive. Have you noticed how DP candidates for various offices have been hugely overperforming pretty much everywhere over the past couple of years? Have you seen any of the articles in which pros have criticized many of the recent polls that you’ve mentioned, in great detail? Does Andrew Sullivan have a good track record of being accurate about the future? In my experience his accuracy is abysmal.
If we are venting let me just say it right out loud. Anyone still talking about “both sides are bad” at this late date has allowed themselves to become deluded. Detached from reality. The DP may have it’s contingent of problematically woke but it also still has a large contingent of decent, dedicated, smart people, and those are the ones leading their party. Meanwhile the RP is all but entirely craven, ethically bankrupt, and the worst of them are the ones leading their party. At least at the federal level, all the decent old school Republicans already left the party, years ago, and they have opposed Trump more vigorously than the DP or anyone else. Their political ads are wonderful.
For context, I’ve never been a Democrat or a Republican. Funny thing, for many years I thought I had once registered as a Republican in my younger days, but recently came across my voter registration card, which I hadn’t seen in at least 23 years. Turns out I had registered as an Independent.
On Israel. I stand with Isarel 100%. Everything that needs saying has been said (here that is).
That Israel has to fight another type of war with the rest of the idiot world is annoying.
Waxing? Today’s youth are engaged in a mass delirium of mammalian denialism that demands the obliteration of all traces of body hair.
1. There won’t ever be lasting peace between Israel and Palestine, unless Iran embraces that idea or hell freezes over. (This would require their theocracy to be swept aside.)
There is no hope for a two-state solution. The most-alarming thing is yet another entire generation of very young people brainwashed and radicalized to hate Israel and Jews. The whole dilemma is heartbreaking and earth-shattering, as it is an insoluble one. Hamas caused the current debacle by resorting to a new brand of terrorism and barbarism, arguably much worse than Boko Haram and ISIS. Israel has to walk a tight-rope each day, in prosecuting this war against them. But to sit on their hands and do nothing w/b to invite annihilation. The challenge will be for both sides and the rest of the world not to lose their sense of humanity nor to ignore history.
2. I still don’t think Trump will ever be re-elected president.
3. Many of the waxing parlours are probably fronts (or backs).
Is Salman Rushdie’s novel The Moor’s Last Sigh crazy or what?!
The only fact that gives me hope in the next election is that Trump lost the popular vote in both of his elections. Trump lost to Clinton by about 3 million votes. Trump lost to Biden by about 7 million votes. It remains disheartening that he could remain so popular with Republicans.
The Israeli/Palestinian conflict will have no winners. It will not end once cessation of IDF military action is accomplished, it will be a resumption of basically where it left off, nowhere! at least where you would call it a relatively peaceful existence…
Israel vilified forever (what’s new) for whatever action it takes or doesn’t take is a guarantee, they have no choice and it will make no difference, just more body count and misery for both sides, ineffably sad that it has to be this way.
From one side, a continued state of perceived oppression and the other a perpetual uncertainty will resume.
Say you have a particularly disagreeable neighbour. He never liked “your kind” when you moved in to your house next door to him and he has been carrying out a vendetta against you for years. Finally one day he breaks into your house, kills your wife and son, and kidnaps your daughter. The police come and arrest him. He is convicted and sent away to prison for a long time. In some countries he would be put to death. Your ordeal is finally over. (Maybe you got your daughter back alive, maybe you didn’t.)
In the context of the community of nations, what would it look like for the bad Gazan neighbours of Israel to be sent away to prison for life? There may be no actual judges and no actual prisons to handle the cases of 2 million bad neighbours, but that’s not really Israel’s problem is it? Israel still needs to get rid of those people, just as their ancestors needed to deal with murderous neighbours before there were law courts and prisons.