Israel is at war with Palestine

October 7, 2023 • 5:58 am

When I was just in Jerusalem, a politically savvy friend, whose ears were attuned to increased military activity in Gaza, told me that Israel would be at war with Palestine in September or October. I didn’t (and couldn’t) believe him.  Yesterday I wrote him, “Where is the war you predicted?” and he responded, “Give me some 3 weeks more – as I predicted. I said Sept. or October.”

He was right. This morning, according to both the BBC and NYT (see the barrage of rockets from Gaza in the NYT front page),  Gaza attacked Israel with both a huge rocket bombardment (over 2200 missiles: more than the Iron Dome can handle) and an incursion of armed fighters over the border, killing many Israeli soldiers and civilians. Israeli civilians have, reportedly, been taken hostage and moved into Gaza. Netanyahu has declared, “We are at war.” And so it they are.  I’m glad I left Israel before the fighting started, but in some ways I also want to be there now to see what’s happening “on the ground”.

What we know so far (quotes from both sources):

  • Israel and Gaza were on a war footing on Saturday after Palestinian militants fired thousands of rockets into southern and central Israel in a surprise morning attack that was among the biggest from Gaza in years.

    The Israeli military said that armed gunmen had crossed the border fence in several locations and infiltrated Israeli communities in a ground assault from Gaza, a poor coastal enclave that has been under blockade by Israel and neighboring Egypt for about 15 years.

    Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel said operations were underway to clear the militants from infiltrated towns and that he had issued a call-up of reservists.

    “We are at war,” he said in a televised statement.

    The Israeli military said that at least 2,200 rockets [JAC: as of 9 a.m. Chicago time, 7,000 rockets] had been fired into Israel by 11 a.m. on Saturday. It declared “a state of alert for war” and said that its fighter jets had begun airstrikes on the Gaza Strip.

  • The Israeli military said that at least 2,200 rockets had been fired into Israel by 11 a.m. on Saturday. It declared “a state of alert for war” and said that its fighter jets had begun airstrikes on the Gaza Strip.

About 545 people have been injured in the attacks, with at least 22 Israelis dead, according to Israeli officials.  Muhammad Deif, the leader of the military wing of Hamas, the Islamic militant organization that controls Gaza, said in a recorded message that the group had decided to launch an “operation” so that “the enemy will understand that the time of their rampaging without accountability has ended.”

  • The assault began without any warning about 6:30 a.m. on the Jewish Sabbath and the morning of a festival, the last of the series of Jewish high holidays. It was 50 years almost to the day after the surprise attack by Egyptian and Syrian forces over Israel’s northern and southern borders at the opening of the 1973 war that traumatized the nation.

  • The Israeli television channel Reshet 13 reports that Palestinian militants are holding Israelis captive in the southern town of Ofakim, according to the Reuters news agency.

    This is one of the first reports we have from Israeli media on the situation, after widespread claims on social media that Palestinian militants have taken captives.

    Unverified videos on social media appear to show Palestinians taking civilians captive and moving them by motorbike into Gaza.

    The Israeli authorities have said they will not comment on this and BBC News has so far been unable to verify the reports.

    However, a Hamas spokesman told Al Jazeera that “they are not hostages – they are prisoners of war”.

And from the BBC:

There has been a lot of reaction to the Palestinian attacks in Israel, here’s a selection of it:

French President Emmanuel Macron strongly condemned the attacks, saying “I express my full solidarity with the victims, their families and loved ones”

Germany’s foreign minister said “violence and rockets against innocent civilians must stop now”

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described the attack as “terrorism in its most despicable form”

The United States condemned the violence and urged both sides to refrain from retaliating.

Russia’s deputy foreign minister said “it goes without saying that we always call for restraint”

Russia’s deputy foreign minister said “it goes without saying that we always call for restraint”

  • Meanwhile, the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, has denounced reports of civilians being taken hostage. He called the act a violation of international law and demanded their release.

Borrell posted on social media: “The news of civilians being held hostage at home or in Gaza is appalling. It goes against international law. The hostages must be released immediately.

“We follow with anguish the news coming from Israel. We unequivocally condemn the attacks by Hamas.

“This horrific violence must stop immediately. Terrorism and violence solve nothing.”

His comments came as Hamas posted several videos and images on social media that appear to show captives.

Look at the mealymouthed US reaction, “condemning the violence” (which violence?), and “urging both sides not to retaliate”. Israel is supposed to just sit there and not respond? That’s ridiculous!  Here the U.S. reaction is diverging from that of the rest of the West (except for Russia!).  If this is the view of the Biden administration, then I condemn it strongly.  Biden’s reaction and America’s response in the next couple of days will tell us a lot about official feelings about the administration towards Israel.

I am not a political expert, but if Hezbollah begins firing its more sophisticated rockets from Lebanon, Israel will have to fight on both its northern and southern borders. The casualty figures are undoubtedly underestimates.

Israel will mount a huge military response on Gaza, and given that the Hamas deliberately targeted civilians, and are taking hostages and destroying Israeli villages, Israel will create more casualities, including civilians, in Gaza.  The world will object because much of it is on the side of Palestine (despite the fact that this is an attack initiated by Palestine and involves war crimes on the part of Hamas), and the UN may call for a worldwide boycott of Israel; that will hamper military aid to the country.  We can expect worldwide condemnation of Israel and not Palestine, despite what happened.

I expect that Palestine will say that they had no recourse other than this attack, but they have had several chances to have a two-state solution. That hasn’t happened because Palestine doesn’t want a two-state solution; it wants the destruction of Israel as a country, with Palestine extending “from the river to the sea”.  This war was unnecessary.

I also expect that if the death toll after an Israeli response is higher than Palestine’s death toll—as is likely because Hamas puts its weapons and headquarters among civilians, and despite Israel’s attempts (unlike Hamas’s!) to avoid killing civilians—we’re going to start hearing about “disproportionate deaths”, which seems to be some kind of justification for Hamas’s killing spree of civilians.

This is a serious situation, and a real war, and it’s very sad. All of Israel is hiding in shelters, and all we can do at wait.  Many innocent civilians will die on both sides.

The BBC has the best live coverage, with ongoing interviews.

51 thoughts on “Israel is at war with Palestine”

  2. I thought of our host just as I saw this news. It’s remarkable that your friend could be so plugged-in as to have foreseen this.

  3. The leader of the Labour Party, Keir Starmer, tweeted:

    I utterly condemn the ongoing attacks on Israel and her citizens.

    There is no justification for this act of terror which is being perpetrated by those who seek to undermine any chance for future peace in the region.

    Israel has a right to defend herself.

    https://x.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1710578659415757310

    Jeremy Corbyn would never have said that.

    1. Apparently the U.S. doesn’t think that Israel has a right to defend itself! See the U.S. comments I’ve added to the post. In this the U.S. diverges from the rest of Western nations, who have spoken up along the lines of Starmer.

    2. Others on the left have echoed Starmer’s condemnation- including London mayor Sadiq Khan and David Lammy. Only the Novara Media cranks are coming out with the predictable anti-Israel propaganda.

    3. All true. One more reason that Starmer will be elected as Prime Minster, after Corbyn led Labor to a massive defeat. For the record, I would not vote for either of them. American’s miss this, but Labor just (massively) won a by-election against the SNP.

  5. Biden should just say, we no longer have a government so just do what you have to. The lost party has no leader and the democrats are busy building walls.

  6. A positive development is that the White House has issued a more forceful stance the terrorism against Israel. National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson released this statement condemning the attacks:

    “The United States unequivocally condemns the unprovoked attacks by Hamas terrorists against Israeli civilians. There is never any justification for terrorism. We stand firmly with the Government and people of Israel and extend our condolences for the Israeli lives lost in these attacks. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has spoken to Israeli National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi and we remain in close contact with our Israeli partners.”

  8. CNN is currently getting info from a military guy in the IDF. He has stated nearly 3000 rockets fired so far. Not giving any details on dead and injured. No doubt the response will be big on this one. The CNN does not really know what questions to ask. And this guy is not really going to tell them what they are doing.

    1. Something else I can add. Currently the U.S. does not have a senior “General” rank officer in Israel because of the crap the republicans have been pulling in the Senate. more than 300 positions going unfilled due to the clown from Alabama..

    2. More info from MSNBC. At least 40 dead. This is a reporter in Israel. The Air Force is making numerous hits into Gaza. Some hostages taken into Gaza.

  9. This was very upsetting news to wake up to. I’m glad that you aren’t there Professor. 🇮🇱❤️

  10. It is an unforgivable, despicable attack.
    That being said, the Palestinians have indeed some pertinent grievances. The sad case is that quite a bit of it is of their own making (voting for a terrorist organisation like Hamas not the least). Fundamentalist Islamic rhetoric -as espoused by Hamas- poisons everything and makes a reasonable solution virtually impossible. Hamas is no friend of real Palestinian human interests, I’d think.
    The basic problem is that the Islamists deny Israel the right to exist. Denying your opponent the right to exist is never a fruitful way to improve a situation.

    1. But remember that two-state solutions have been rejected not just by Hamas, but by the PA, which represents the whole country. As I said, the Palestinian Territories have rejected two-state solutions, and reasonable ones, at least four times. And I’m not sure that “reasonable Palestinian interests” don’t involve getting rid of Israel.

      From a poll at the Times of Israel (this was 2014, so the figures for getting rid of Israel would almost certainly be higher now):

      Palestinian support for a two-state solution with Israel has dropped to below the 30 percent mark, according to a new poll commissioned by the US-based think tank the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, though most respondents said they were opposed to violent resistance.

      Marking a notable shift in Palestinian public opinion, 60 percent of the population surveyed in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip (55% and 68%, respectively) said that the five-year goal “should be to work toward reclaiming all of historic Palestine, from the river to the sea,” according to the poll, a position meaning the elimination of Israel. Meanwhile, less than 30% (31% in the West Bank, 22% in Gaza) would like to “end the occupation of the West Bank and Gaza to achieve a two-state solution.”

      1. Yes, I should not have limited it to Hamas, which I only did because Hamas started this most recent flare-up of a very long war.
        It – denying Israel’s right to exist- is pervasive in about all, if not actually all, Palestinian organisations. But mixing in Islam makes it 100% intractable.
        Ahl al-Kitāb (People of the Book) have some minor privileges in Islam, but independence is definitely not one of those.
        Sadly, Israel cannot win peace in any ‘morally acceptable’ (to muslims) sense, it is forced>/i> to rely on strength.

      2. In 1987, while I was in grad school, I was a TA for an electronics lab class that all physics undergrads had to take. There was a Palestinian guy in that class who told me: “There will be no peace in the Middle East until Israel is gone.”

        I’m afraid that is still the attitude of most Palestinians.

    2. Their grievances seem to be primarily based on the fact that the Israelis treat them as if they are the sort of people who randomly stab or blow up anyone who they suspect might be Jewish, and teach their children that killing all Jews is the highest of virtues.

      When one lives surrounded by people of whom a significant percentage hold such values, you will not survive long if you pretend otherwise.

  11. A new and more heartening statement from the US:

    US ‘will work to ensure Israel has what it needs to defend itself’ – Austin
    US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has released a statement on the attacks on Israel by Palestinian militants.

    “I am closely monitoring developments in Israel. Our commitment to Israel’s right to defend itself remains unwavering, and I extend my condolences to the families of those who lost their lives in this abhorrent attack on civilians,” he says.

    “Over the coming days the Department of Defense will work to ensure that Israel has what it needs to defend itself and protect civilians from indiscriminate violence and terrorism.”

    In the meantime, the death toll in Israel has risen to 40.

  12. Latest from “Times of Israel”:
    The Health Ministry says so far 908 injured people have been taken to hospitals for treatment in the ongoing terror attack by Hamas on southern and central Israel.

    At least 100 have been killed in the unprecedented assault, authorities say,

  13. If Israel truly decided they were “at war” with Gaza, they would take out the leaders of Hamas, which is, after all, a terrorist group. They know where these people live. But Israel won’t do this, they will hit only military targets.

    If Israel truly decided they were at war with terrorism, they would arrest Abbas and his staff, try them for terrorism, and lock them all up forever. And then do the same if the next batch tried it, until they finally got Palestinian leaders who were interested in peace. But they won’t do this either, preferring instead to pretend that the Palestinians did not instantly abrogate Oslo with their Intifadas. Preserving the relatively calm “status quo” is more important to Israel than drawing a line in the sand that says “terrorism will not be tolerated”.

    It boggles this American’s mind. Imagine if MAGA declared it was hereby justified to murder civilian Democrats. Do you think America would tolerate this for a second, let alone suffer 100 years of such a policy? Israel may be the only government in the world which tolerates civilian murder as a legitimate political policy of its opposition. And so they suffer this intolerable condition, which they themselves allow.

    1. Couldn’t it be that Israel fears that its allies would abandon it (or “condemn in the strongest possible terms its making war on Palestinian civilians”) if it implemented your sensible suggestions? Even many Israelis might be uncomfortable with making total war on a military that embeds itself in a civilian population, and militarizes it thereby. In addition, Israel has to be careful how it deploys its soldiers. It might be possible to decapitate the Hamas leadership from the air or by using special forces. But realistically you need to send in the infantry to make sure the enemy is really dead (as one of our infantrymen put it to a journalist some years back, on the way to Afghanistan.) Can Israel spare the resulting casualties in urban slum warfare when the enemy hides behind his children?

      The situation in Israel is closer to The Troubles in Northern Ireland than to an extremist insurgency in the United States, partly because we have actual experience of the former. Despite deploying 21,000 soldiers in Ulster at the peak — 300,000 soldiers rotated through during the long struggle — and resorting to controversial tactics, the British Army was never able to defeat the IRA and suffered more casualties than the paramilitaries did on both sides. It was only able to prevent it from forcing Republicanism on the North and it could not prevent the IRA from operating in England and elsewhere. The military stalemate was attributed to a climate of romantic and fashionable popular support for Republican terrorism among the influential international Left, much of it in North America I might add. Echoes of, “from the river to the sea, Palestianians will be free.”

      Perhaps the current action will change the calculus of what is doable or thinkable and what isn’t. War has a way of doing that.

    2. Unfortunately, the world’s public opinion: UN, Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch and all people who either are unsure whether it’s OK for Jews to have a sovereign state, are absolutely sure that it’s NOT OK and do not agree with you. All international bodies would call for sanctions, total arms embargoes, boycotts, etc.

      And I’m not guessing. When Israel tried to take out terrorist leaders one by one, the world’s condemnation was unanimous. With so many enemies, Israel has to try to placate “world opinion” and sometimes has to act in a manner detrimental to its own security. Just wait a few days now and you will hear condemnation for “disproportional reaction”.

      1. Short of nukes, I have difficulty in considering any reaction of Tsahal to 3000 rockets in one morning ‘disproportionate’.

  14. From the BBC [a typo above]:
    Russia’s deputy foreign minister said “it goes without saying that we always call for restraint”

    Russia’s deputy foreign minister said “it goes without saying that we always call for restraint”

    – Russia’s deputy foreign minister said that twice.
    – Russia’s deputy foreign minister always says that. 😉

    1. Yeah, Russia always calls for restraint, like in Bucha, Makhariv, Izium and many other places.

  15. I don’t know, we seem to tolerate Trump saying the Chief of the Joint Chiefs of Staff should be killed. So far we tolerate him leading an insurrection and passing out all kinds of classified information. What else is new.

      1. Hamas gets plenty of weapon smuggled from Iran by sea (fishing boats), through Egypt (tunnels), hidden in goods coming through Israel. There is also a whole industry in Gaza – instructions how to produce rockets (and instructors as well) came from Iran.

    4. From wiki:

      Palestinian rockets include those locally made in Gaza and the West Bank as well as weapons smuggled from Iran and Syria.

      They must have been stockpiling for a while…

  17. Apparently Biden is going to make a public announcement in about 30 minutes.
    It seems the terrorist, Hamas, came across the boarder and hit several locations. Took many hostages back into Gaza. What the purpose of this was I have no idea. This is likely to go on for a long time. Israel was not prepared for this type of attack. Who would be.

    1. Their intelligence should haven seen buildups at the border or other signs. I read someone say that Netanyahu may have replaced competent intelligence experts with his cronies, so that may be why they did not predict this.

    2. I suspect that the purpose of taking civilian hostages is to deter a ground invasion of Gaza. However, I predict there will be such a ground invasion anyway.

  18. Statement from President Joe Biden:

    “This morning, I spoke with Prime Minister Netanyahu about the horrific and ongoing attacks in Israel. The United States unequivocally condemns this appalling assault against Israel by Hamas terrorists from Gaza, and I made clear to Prime Minister Netanyahu that we stand ready to offer all appropriate means of support to the Government and people of Israel. Terrorism is never justified. Israel has a right to defend itself and its people. The United States warns against any other party hostile to Israel seeking advantage in this situation. My Administration’s support for Israel’s security is rock solid and unwavering.

    Jill and I are keeping in our prayers all of the families who have been hurt by this violence. We are heartbroken by the lives that have been tragically cut short and hope for a swift recovery for all those who have been wounded.

    My team and I are tracking this situation closely, and I will remain in close touch with Prime Minister Netanyahu.”

    While this is much stronger than the earlier BBC reporting would suggest, the word “appropriate” in the fifth line is doing a great deal of work. So are statements like Austin’s “defend itself and protect civilians.” The devil is in the details, as they say.

    For context: BBC is now reporting that per the Israeli health ministry over 150 people have been killed in Israel. The population of Israel is now slightly more than nine million. The United States population per the 2000 census was 281 million. Just under 3000 people died the next year on 9/11. Anyone who cares to can do the math and judge whether the US Administration’s statement on Israel was proportional to the assault.

  20. My concern is that this war will most likely derail the ongoing normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia. That’s probably one of the main reasons why Hamas attacked in the first place.

    1. I imply, however subjectively, that as a condition of normalizing relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia requires Israel not to retaliate. I’d like to see Saudi Arabia go on record to that effect.

  22. Al Jazeera of all places, as of late October 7, reports that most media/nations are siding with Israel.

    (I also saved the page to archive.org)

  23. To me, the obvious question is ‘why now?’. My answer is that Hamas / Iran see the world going in the wrong direction (against them) and they see this as their ‘last chance’. Of course, they would never admit that, but it is true (at least I think so) anyway. Another casualty of this war will probably be Biden’s efforts at an Iran/USA rapprochement. My guess is that Iran new this, and decided on war anyways.

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