Is this the end for Trump?

June 16, 2017 • 10:00 am

Obstruction of justice is a serious and impeachable offense. Will The Donald survive?

One thing’s for sure: if he fires lead investigator Robert Mueller, à la Nixon and the Saturday Night Massacre, he’s done for. I don’t think it’s beyond hope now that Trump will be impeached, though I’m betting against it.

Ken White, the lawyer who posts at the legal site Popehat, thinks that Trump’s been getting good legal advice but ignoring it (h/t: Grania):

96 thoughts on “Is this the end for Trump?”

  1. Trump will not get impeached (I’m sorry to say). He’ll likely resign. Let’s hope this happens before the end of the year.

    1. President Caulfield doesn’t get that a “phony witch hunt” is a real hunt. No surprise.

  2. I don’t share your relative optimism regarding the “end” of tRump. One huge, yuge, difference between this and Watergate is that nearly the entire Republican Party doesn’t really care what damage he’s doing to the country. They’re on board with it and actively participating.

    2. It depends on results of 2018 mid-term elections, if the composition of congress changes enough.

      1. Fair enough. But I still don’t expect enough change to make the difference. Gerrymandering in 2010 is going to make that difficult in the best of scenarios. That and the now-established voter suppression in states like mine.

        1. I think even this Congress would impeach following 2018. I think the reason there is no enthusiasm for it now is that they think it will turn Trump supporters against them. Once the mid terms have happened though, Trump will be fair game. I think the priority will change to “make sure Trump (approval rating 38.7%) isn’t the Republican nominee for 2020”.

  3. Muller is investigating him and didn’t tell him to fire anyone. He’s deranged.

    1. And didn’t he tell us it was his iwn decision to fire Comey anyway?

      There is no “The buck stops here” sign on this president’s desk.

      The sign, if it existed, would say: “If it’s good news, it’s down to me. Anything else is someone else’s fault.”

  5. I think he will go one way or the other. Many things still need to unfold, particularly the Russian connections. This is all still to come regardless of the obstruction business. My belief is that the Trumps are so financially entangled with Russian money and loans – this guy is a walking conflict of interests. He has been unwilling to put anything out in the open or comply in any way. He is guilty as hell of many things and will not survive. The real ignorance is in the American people who voted for this.

    2. “He is guilty as hell of many things and will not survive.”

      The thing is, we actually need concrete evidence to substantiate such statements, and we don’t know of any yet. This is especially true if you’re going to try and impeach him.

      Do I *believe* he is probably guilty of this? Yes, he *probably* is, but I know of no concrete evidence, so I would neither make such definitive statements nor count on impeachment until there is said evidence of collusion.

        1. I think what we are doing here is speculating. Unless you are in the fortune telling business that is what we are doing here. My speculation is just as likely as anyone’s. The part about stupid to have voted for him, that part is confirmed.

        2. There’s a prima facie case of obstruction of justice right now, between the effort to squelch the Flynn investigation and the firing of James Comey. Whether that’s enough for the Republican House to vote articles of impeachment (or for Bob Mueller to present an indictment to a grand jury) is, of course, a different matter.

          1. I don’t think it’s as open and shut as you do. If Comey did, in fact, tell him that he wasn’t personally under investigation, and if he fired Flynn before Comey (which he did), it might be very difficult to prove he was trying to obstruct an investigation.

          2. I’m not saying it’s open-and-shut, just that there’d be some evidence of each of the essential elements needed to take an obstruction-of-justice charge to a jury. The operative language of the omnibus section of the applicable statute, 18 USC section 1503(a), provides that “[w]hoever corruptly … endeavors to influence … the due administration of justice” is guilty of the crime.

            I’m sure Bob Mueller would like to nail down some additional evidence that the Donald’s effort to influence the investigation was done “corruptly” rather than (as Trump’s lawyer would likely argue) stupidly or ignorantly or with mere hubris and bluster aforethought.

            Also, [insert your own Clapton, Ginger Baker, Cream reference here]. 🙂

          3. “Also, [insert your own Clapton, Ginger Baker, Cream reference here].”

            I didn’t shoot the sheriff (even if we were both alone in the office together and he was dead when everyone came back), and only my surrogates killed the deputy. 🙂

            (not an original Clapton song, but good enough)

          4. I think so far the clearest example of possible obstruction of justice is Trump telling Comey to leave Flynn alone, then firing Comey. I don’t know if that would make it a open-and-shut case in a regular court, but I wouldn’t bet against it.

          5. The problem is Comey is the only one who can/will say that he told him that. Unless it’s on tape or at least one other person steps forward to confirm it, it’s his word against Trump’s.

          6. Even if a tape proved that Trump said what Comey claims he said, it wouldn’t hold up in court. Comey testified that he took Trump’s “I hope that” as a directive, but that’s matter of interpretation, not a matter of what was said.

      2. Imo “I believe” is not a definitive statement. Randy seems to me to just be giving his opinion. I don’t see a problem with that.

        Clearly there is no evidence yet, just a whole lot of smoke.

        There is however, a lot of “methinks [he] doth protest too much.”

        Assuming he’s innocent, a helluva could be cleared up if he did what he said he would do when he got elected: provide his tax returns. Of course, we know that when he said that he didn’t think he would win.

        1. Yeah, I know that Trump is one of the most strange and bizarre things on the planet. But even he would not act so guilty about everything and totally refuse to offer any evidence ever to clear anything up.

          1. I have to guess that Trump is a golden opportunity for psychiatrists to study a deviant personality. I’ve read some of their public pronouncements and he sounds simply fascinating as a study. What a rare opportunity.

          2. And perhaps to also study the psychology of at least a few of those so in thrall to him.

          3. “But even he would not act so guilty about everything and totally refuse to offer any evidence ever to clear anything up.”

            And you know this how?

            All evidence seems to point the opposite direction.

          4. Yeah, I would say even if he is innocent, the man is so defiant and full of himself that he would stridently refuse to bring such evidence to light simply out of a feeling of “sticking it to my enemies.” He can’t see past his own narcissism.

  6. This is the single hardest thing for me to deal with as an atheist. I cannot rely on a belief that some bearded man in the sky or even some karmic force will make sure everyone gets what they are due. Instead, I must deal with the fact that we are surrounded by injustice everyday, and that the “bad guys” sometimes win. In a way, I guess that makes me fight harder, knowing that if we don’t fight for justice, it certainly won’t come about by the grace of Yahweh. Do I think the Donald will get impeached? Not with the current Republican sycophants still relishing their new found power after 8 years of serving under the Antichrist/Muslim/Communist, willing to put party before country or justice for that matter. I just can’t see Trump resigning either, which would be to admit defeat. Unless the Republicans see some way of saving face and impeaching Trump, we’re stuck with the tyrannical narcissist.

    1. In addition to which, even if Trump is impeached or resigns, Pence and the entire cabinet follow in his footsteps. We can’t get there from here.

  7. I too see little evidence for actual obstruction to get him impeached … YET!

    And here’s the thing: Once he DOES get investigated by Mueller .. chances are good, given his well known nature to do so, coupled with his misplaced outwardly overconfidence (outward, since I think, deep down, he’s a very insecure person) .. that he starts lying about something. Now THAT, when found out, could possibly get him impeached.
    (Wasn’t that what got Clinton in trouble: that he lied DURING his investigation?)

    1. “that he starts lying about something”

      Say what? He’s been doing that compulsively for decades!

      1. But not during official investigations … (while under oath). (As far as we know).

        So maybe I should have said ‘continues lying, while under oath)

        1. Right, every politician lies. We need to catch him lying under oath. It seems like he’s listening to his lawyers better than he ever listened to advisers during his campaign or in the beginning of his Presidency, but he might not be stupid enough to lie under oath. It’s pretty easy to just evade (Alberto Gonzalez, anyone?).

          1. If Trump follows through with his promise (made at his presser last week) to testify under oath, he will undoubtedly perjure himself. Trump is an inveterate liar, a self-mythologizing fabulist incapable of controlling the impulse to prevaricate. The lying will no doubt begin with his pledge to “tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but …”

            Nevertheless, Trump will likely renege on his “100%” promise to testify under oath, just as he reneged on his promise to disclose his tax returns, and just as he’s reneged on so many others.

          2. I agree that Trump will certainly perjure himself if he testifies under oath. He won’t be aware that Mueller knows things that Trump doesn’t think he knows. It’s a classic perjury trap.

            I believe Mueller has the power to compel sworn testimony from Trump. His best option is to take the 5th. That wouldn’t look good.

        2. He’ll keep lying, oath or no oath.

          I don’t think tRump has enough respect for the truth to know how not to lie. The man simply says what seems useful in the moment and cares not a whit whether two statements in sequence contradict each other.

  8. Ah, an easy one. Having found the spotlight, we will never be rid of him. His family fortunes, and that of his children, will be enriched. Win, lose or draw, he will spin it as a win. And his followers will continue to support him. The End.

    1. “Having found the spotlight”

      Not so sure about that ..

      He may initially have liked the spotlight, but now that that light is firmly on him all the time, while the rest of the world ridicules him, and actively works against him, with only a bunch of spineless brown-nosers around him ‘adoring’ him, he may not like that spotlight that much anymore.

      Rumors have it that he gets increasingly frustrated and angry about everything around him, .. so I think he’s already found out that this is NOT a fun job. And that NOT everybody adores him.
      You only have to read his tw**ts to see how deeply all those attacks affect him.
      No .. I don’t think he’s enjoying the job anymore.

  9. My prediction; no impeachment and no charges of obstruction. Too many Republicans in the way.

    Also does Betteridge’s Law of Headlines apply to websites? I hope not. I hope my prediction is wrong.

    1. I think they will find obstruction but GOP will decide that the circumstances surrounding the obstruction only warrants censure and not impeachment. Or as Paul Ryan said: “He’s just new to this.”

    2. I think the republicans in charge may not WANT to ‘rescue’ him, lest they would be completely crushed in the next elections.
      No, I think they wouldn’t mind to ‘let him go’ and get rid of all the turmoil and controversies! They would still get a very conservative, Republican president in his place, and one who DOES know how ‘Washington’ works.

  10. “Is this the end for Herr D?” Yes, I do believe that we’re witnessing the beginning of the end of this asswipe’s reaign.

    Each and every day he digs a deeper hole while at the same time he digs he tightens the noose around his orange neck.

    I strongly suspect that his stupid reign won’t last a full year. But don’t gloat; the next asswipe to assume power will be Pence, IMHO perhaps even more stupid and more dangerous, if that’s even possible.

    What a freakin’ pickle the deplorables have gotten us into.

    1. IMHO, I would rather have the dependable hypocrisy of Trump than the “God said it, I believe it, that settles it” brand of religioun that Pence exhibits. He truly scares me.

  11. As they get into issues, more and more Republicans are ignoring and opposing Trump’s wishes. I think they will eventually oppose him completely. His vacuous cronies are going to get caught. Flynn, Sessions, Kushner and others will fall and Trump will eventually resign, claiming he was set up by the entire world. He is guilty of obstruction and intermingling his business interests.

  12. I’m worried that the investigation will be inconclusive. Think of how much evidence has probably already been deleted. Then, as often happens in politics and in life, something will happen (a war?) to bale Trump out and his poll numbers will jump and the GOP will continue to support him. If he runs against a weak democratic candidate(there are so many) in 2020, he could get another chance to destroy democracy as we know it. Call me a pessimist.

    1. I’m concerned that, if the noose really tightens, Trump might launch against N. Korea in a last-ditch effort to salvage his presidency.

      Nothing rallies public support like war, even if a bogus one. Plus, with the Tomahawk strike in Syria and the MOAB in Afghanistan, Trump got the taste of blood in his mouth, and he seemed to like it. He’ll not hesitate to return for more.

      1. Even he can’t be stupid enough to launch a war against “Democratic People’s Republic of Korea” (I always enjoy saying the whole name because it makes me snicker to myself every time). Even if he wanted to, the generals would never allow it. We’d be putting South Korea and Japan in immediate danger of multiple nuclear strikes, and we’d have to fight a ground war against over one million troops indoctrinated into NK’s special brand of zealotry.

        2. As the commander-in-chief, the president has the sole and exclusive authority to launch a missile strike; generals have no de jure authority to countermand his order. If they did so anyway, we’d have a real constitutional crisis on our hands.

          1. Does anyone else see how perilous and ridiculous it is to “lawfully” or “constitutionally” allow any one person to have that “right”; i.e. to empower one individual to launch a nuclear war?
            Even if it were a more ethical, intelligent and responsible person, it seems ridiculous, but to give this power to someone like Trump borders on criminal negligence. (Would you give a loaded handguns to a toddler if the constitution allowed it?)

            -evan

          2. The system we have in the US for launching nukes is a remnant of the cold war. It’s designed to effectuate a counterattack while there’s still the opportunity to do so (which is assumed to mean within 4 minutes of the president’s decision to launch). The president’s order must be confirmed by the Secretary of Defense, but the SecDef is limited to validating the order’s authenticity (i.e., that it’s coming from the president), not to second-guessing the decision’s wisdom.

          3. He may have that authority, but the military has to carry it out. If he tried to launch a missile strike against North Korea, I really don’t think the generals would carry it out unless North Korea attacked first. That was my point.

          4. Maybe not, but generals have spent a career in a system in which the chain of command is sacrosanct. Respect the uniform even if you can’t respect the man, is their operating credo.

            And my point is, if someone like Gen. Mattis were to arrogate the authority to countermand Trump’s order, essentially it would constitute a Seven-Days-in-May style coup. Where do we go from there?

          5. It’s not an unprecedented action. The first event that comes to mind is how all out nuclear war was avoided between the US and USSR in 1983 (although that wasn’t on the level of the generals, it was a military man who decided to defy the chain of command and saved the world).

          6. The 1983 Soviet incident is inapposite; that was a false alarm detected by an underlying, not a direct order countermanded. (It is to avoid such false alarms that the seconding by the SecDef is required prior to a nuclear launch by the US.)

            Same thing happened with Denzel and Gene Hackman in Crimson Tide. 🙂

  13. One risk is that Mueller’s investigations clears Trump from a strictly legal point of view (however morally dubious his actions may be found to be) and republicans take it to be a whole vindication of the man. That’s what I really fear.

    1. I think it would be hard to clear Trump given the facts we know now. However, even if Trump is cleared, there is going to be a lot of collateral damage to Trump and the GOP from this investigation. I don’t think Kushner, Bannon, Flynn, Manafort, The Trump Foundation, and a host of others will come out unscathed.

  14. Question: Could Pence be more dangerous than Trump? With Trump, his outrageous and harmful ideas are clearly on display, and his antics inspire opposition. With Pence, I get the feeling he would quietly affect more insidious change, and the opposition would be weaker.

  15. It’s not a ‘witch hunt’ if he’s guilty of the very thing they are investigating…

  16. Impeaching Trump would take a literal act of congress. Before that, you need to prove wrongdoing from Trump, not his surrogates, the man himself. Not only do you have to prove wrongdoing, you have to prove that wrongdoing was so egregious that removal from office is the best possible option for the country.

    While Trump has been helping to expedite the process, I doubt an impeachment trial would ever start until Dems regain majority. Impeaching a sitting president is the legal equivalent to moving a mountain. While I don’t think he’s fit to serve as President, I’m really not expecting him to be removed from office anytime soon.

    A better course of action than “well, surely THIS will start the impeachment process” comments is holding locally elected officials feet to the fire. You have more sway over them than you might think. In a red district that supports Trump, pressure your official to explain why. Have conversations with people and point out the impacts on policy decisions. Go to local govt. meetings, contact your representatives, volunteer with a political campaign. Get out of your echo chamber and engage in dialogue with the other side. It’s not easy (I know because I’ve been trying this since Trump was elected) but it’s the only rational way forward.

    1. Exactly. We need to stop concentrating on only the Presidency. Republicans have been dominating on the state and local levels for a long time now, and that’s only getting worse. The Democrats have completely taken their eyes off the ball regarding these levels for far too long now, and it’s going to take significant, long term efforts to reverse these issues.

    1. Gaslighting only works until people realize they are being gaslighted. I think we’re reaching critical mass on that.

    2. Alternately it may be symptomatic of developing dementia / Alzheimer, or a worsening of his addiction to bullshitting. It must be taxing to a really divisive President. And, at 71, he will not find the energy to change the way he behaves, so the problem will stay:
      “An old leader is a problem only when enthralled with geriatric ideas”
      (Timothy Egan, Presidential Youth Envy, NY Times)

  19. The Congressional Republicans are afraid to cross Trump because of his die-hard base. The question is: What could the investigation turn up that would alienate the base? I can think of one, aside from outright, smoking-gun treason or obstruction of justice. I bet Mueller is looking at Trump’s tax returns and other financial records and Trump may not even know about it. It’s possible that he isn’t a billionaire, or even close to it, and may even be so in hoc to Russian oligarchs that he’s actually broke.

    1. “I can think of one, aside from outright, smoking-gun treason or obstruction of justice.”

      Nope. His base is convinced that everything negative is made-up, deep-state, attack on their hero. These are people for whom no amount of evidence can counter the faith. Committed fundamentalists.

      1. There are some like that. Even many. But not all. Trump is historically unpopular, especially at this early stage. His base is in the mid to high thirties, and he has about a 60% disapproval rating. I have to believe that a substantial percentage are persuadable in the face of serious criminal wrong-doing; if, for example, he were to fire Mueller.

        1. “His base is in the mid to high thirties”

          Right. These are the Republicans. They’re the problem, tRump is just the symptom. I have near-zero confidence that they will ever see him as anything but a persecuted hero.

  20. Robert Mueller is assembling a crack legal team, including members specializing in the investigation of money-laundering and other financial crimes. They’ll be doing a deep dive into the financial records of Trump and his crew, including the tax returns the Donald has so adamantly refused to reveal (and which may well hold the gateway into whatever compromising material the Russians have on him).

    I strongly suspect that Trump will fire Mueller rather than let the investigation run its course, probably sooner rather than later. If that happens, we’ll be off into a national crisis. Rod Rosenstein, the acting Attorney General for Russiagate, will either resign or be fired rather than can Mueller, and I suspect a chunk of lawyers at Main Justice will leave with him.

    The real question will be whether congressional Republicans then will finally find the spine to stand up to Trump. (Those that represent deep-red jurisdictions — the states and districts that went for Trump by double-digit margins in the last election — are deathly afraid of a backlash from his hardcore, energized base, which probably bottoms out at about half of the Republican party and a quarter of the American public.) So far in the debacle that’s been the Trump presidency, a patriotic congressional Republican has been harder to find than a vein on a comatose junkie.

  21. Another question to work on is who gets to finish off Trump. I think, either himself or Mueller’s team. And probably in the next 6 to 8 months.

  22. While I have always despised Trump, in recent years it has become increasingly obvious that he suffers from dementia. It’s not so much fun to hate him any more.

    But, I’m hoping he will not be impeached because I believe his moronic VP would be even worse, as he might actually be able to get things done. And his agenda is no better than Trumps.

    2. Yes, the difference between a clown with Alzheimer’s and an Ayatollah who knows how the system works and gets (nasty) things done.
      Give me the Clown anyday.

  23. Unless some hard evidence comes along, i don’t see how Trump will be deposed…and even if he is, Mike Pence won’t be any better. The presentation may be different, but the policies will remain the same. In spite of all his posturing and bluster, Trump doesn’t run things, the GOP does.

    Meanwhile Democrats are still in self-destruct mode as they continue to fume over the 2016 primaries…So don’t expect much in the 2018 Midterms. Republicans will likely own the government for the next 8 years.

  24. As someone pointed out above, Trump is merely a symptom, the GOP (Greedy Old Pricks) is the disease.

    And the Dems need to do some serious soul searching if they want to prevail in the future- a point which is lucidly made in the following interview:

    https://soundcloud.com/washington-post/justin-gest-on-how-trump?tid=rainbow

    Please give it a listen, as it’s perhaps the most satisfying explanation of the Trump phenomenon I have encountered.

    If correct, the theory also predicts that Bernie would have won against the orange menace..

  25. We British also have a leader unwanted by the majority of the voters who is an irritating embarrassment to the ruling Party and clearly lost the support of the political press but is still hanging on to the job.
    Are WE depressed?
    Well yes, but this is what all top Politicians do and have always done,so they wait for better times and for the main opposition party to make its own mistakes.
    Power is power and Team Trump is behaving in a time honoured and predictable manner in the certain knowledge that the week after next something else will grab the voters attention and with luck his Poll ratings will soar again..

  26. Trump isn’t going to be impeached and he isn’t going to resign–that would imply that he’s capable of shame,which he’s not. Whether this investigation is the end of Trump depends on only one thing: whether the investigation finds that Trump is guilty of wrong doing. Nixon certainly was. I don’t think Trump is. I’m no fan of Trump’s but to a certain degree I think he’s right: it’s a witch hunt. That and a whole lot of wishful thinking.

    1. The last Witch Hunt was Salem, Mass. long time ago. The only hard evidence that did it for Nixon was the tapes. He sunk himself. I think one way or the other, Trump will do the same. He is not as smart as Nixon, however and will probably go kicking and screaming. In the investigation still to come, of Trumps buddies there is always the chance that someone will turn. Maybe Flynn, maybe someone else. There is also the slim possibility they find a leaker from Russia.

    2. Since the Russian hacking scandal surfaced, every time Trump has had an opportunity either to look innocent or to look guilty — every time he could either disclose or cover-up — he’s opted to look guilty.

      If Trump has been compromised by the Russians (either because his campaign was complicit in the hacking or because the oligarchs have their financial hooks in him) then these acts make sense. Trump being compromised also would explain a host of other suspicious circumstances — the sudden change to the GOP platform regarding Crimea, the 18+ contacts between Trump’s people and Russians during the campaign, the rampant lying about same, Michael Flynn’s promise to Kislyak to lift the sanctions, Jared Kushner’s desire to communicate with the Kremlin via the Russian consulate, Kushner’s meeting with money-launderer/spy/oligarch Sergey Gorkov in December, and Donald Trump’s utter inability ever to criticize Vladimir Putin, among many others.

      As I say, there’s a guilty explanation that would explain all this. But try as I might, I can conjure no plausible innocent explanation that accounts for it all. Can you? Or is it all just Donald Trump’s extremely unlikely concatenation of unfortunate circumstance?

      1. “I can conjure no plausible innocent explanation that accounts for it all. Can you?”

        Not me. But then again I’m not a Republican. They think things like “deep state conspiracy” are plausible explanations.

      2. I think you make the case why the guy will not remain standing this whole term. Like it was once said, when it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, swims like a duck…

  27. “Obstruction of justice is a serious and impeachable offense. Will The Donald survive?”

    By his own admission Trump has engaged in obstruction with his firing of Comey, and there’s been no serious impeachment talk. What could possibly come out of investigation on the obstruction front that’s worse than firing the guy who’s running it?

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