Open thread: Happy New Solar Revolution edition

January 1, 2015 • 11:00 am

by Grania

 

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Kliban Party Cats

It’s past bedtime in India, and Professor Ceiling Cat thought that it might be a good time for another open thread.

As the song says: No more champagne and the fireworks are through. I don’t do New Year’s Resolutions as I never have any intention of keeping any, but for 2015 I’ll say my ambition is to win the lottery, which is a lot harder than you’d think because I never purchase tickets.

It’s also that time of year when the usual suspects announce their suspiciously vague and ambiguous “predictions” for the year, so I thought it was good opportunity to talk about resolutions and predictions (sane or insane) and of course, prepare for the day when we reach Singularity.

143 thoughts on “Open thread: Happy New Solar Revolution edition”

    2. But they just left scattered on the ground the hats and entrails of all the poor mice they ate. A cat has to be a cat, I know. Still … I shudder at the carnage!

      1. My vision must be failing, I didn’t see any mouse parts, including innards. I did see ribbons.

        Some of our cats have been hunters. They never ever left entrails lying around. Half rabbits, yes. Half mice, yes. Half fish, too. But guts, never.

        1. Our Maine coon, Lionel, was trained in the hunt by his mom. All through his 15 years of life he brought in mice and non-resident birds (the locals were on to him). He would always eat his catch on Flo’s favorite rug. And always dissected out the stomach or crop and left it on the rug. Frequently found these reminders by stepping barefoot..

          Present cat specializes on rodents, including rats. Very rarely eats them, and then only to make the point that her kibbles don’t pass the sniff test.

          1. When we had outside cats, we had (over the years) 2 or 3 who routinely left some portion of the entrails of their rodent prey uneaten.

          2. What is it about cats and our favorite rugs? Freddie (if he could make it) always made a point of barfing on my favorite hand-woven ( by me) rug. If he was upstairs, it would be on the part of another rug right in the middle of under-the-bed….

          3. I’m convinced one of my d*gs holds it in till she can find a carpet to barf on. I’m tempted to vinyl the whole house.

          4. I guess you’d like confort when you’re barfing…Unlike the usual toilet bowl for us…

    3. I’ve not seen it before either.

      In addition to the presumed female in that hat, I suppose the one on the opposite branch that appears to have an inverted plastic tumbler on its head is male.

  2. but for 2015 I’ll say my ambition is to win the lottery, which is a lot harder than you’d think because I never purchase tickets.

    Making the odds of winning only slightly worse. 🙂

      1. Don’t remember the last time I bought a lottery ticket, though I do make a mental note that I probably should every time I see a billboard with some insane dollar amount on it. Not that I’d actually win, of course, but because it gives me a chance to think of what I’d do with that much money…and some of what I’d do with that much money is stuff I can and should do without that much money.

        Still, wouldn’t it be loverly to find a winning lottery ticket laying on the sidewalk?

        b&

          1. When people at work do lottery pools I join in but I consider it insurance, which is very responsible, and not foolishness.

      2. A former Premier of Quebec Province in Canada once described buying lottery tickets as a “tax
        on fools”. That pretty well says it all!!!

        1. Two things I’ve heard about the lottery:

          “You CAN’T win if you don’t play,
          and you don’t win if you DO play.”

          “The odds of winning the lottery are roughly equivalent to the odds of anyone as ugly as Billy Joel ever again marrying anyone as good-looking as Christy Brinkley!”

          1. Perhaps we should pray to whatever Higher Power that Billy Joel be delivered from what whoever you’re quoting says ails him?

        3. John Oliver did an episode on Last Week Tonite about the crazy lottery situation. Besides the ridiculous odds, he points out that:
          a) Most people who play regularly are those who can least afford to throw their money away. Some spend a significant amount of their income on a lost cause.
          b) Despite the huge marketing effort that emphasizes how much money it puts into our state coffers, the lottery is actually a lose-lose game. Lotteries are linked to motivating legislatures into repeated rounds of tax cuts (b/c hey, the lottery makes up for it). Only it does NOT. Revenues fall well short of what was given up by tax cuts.

    2. The odds of winning the lottery is the same
      even if you don’t buy a ticket to 8 decimal places.

      I do buy a single ticket anytime the jackpot exceeds $400 million. This is rare so I can afford it. I enjoy the fantasy of the riches until the drawing.

      1. It does serve a useful purpose, though — in helping to educate people on the statistics surrounding evolution.

        Yes, the odds of any particular individual winning the lottery are astronomical. Yet, amazingly enough, somebody always wins. Curious, innit?

        b&

        1. Actually, not curious.

          Either they pick a number at random and occasionally no one wins and they roll it over to the next drawing, or they pick a number from those purchased and guarantees that someone wins.

      2. The California Lottery ran a series of ads some time ago featuring celebrities sharing their “lucky” lottery picks.

        Steve “Woz” Wozniak’s numbers were 1-2-3-4-5-6-7, because “any set of numbers has as much chance of winning as any other.”

        Which I think was the most deliciously subversive thing a person could do in a lottery ad, pairing a seemingly hopeful statement (hey, you never know!) with one that lays bare the futility of playing.

        Obviously the guy that wins a $200 million pot remains blind to that message.

        2. There is a slight downside to picking such a distinctive set of numbers. It increases the chance that someone else has picked the same set, so that if you did win the jackpot you would have to share it.

          1. The best strategy for not sharing the prize is to choose only from numbers higher than 31. No doubt most people allow their numbers to be randomly generated,but of those who select their own tend to include their birthday, or birthdays of their children.

            So, combining strategies, I’ll take 32-33-34-35-36-37, and not share with – oops. Now I’ll have to split with you….

          2. That at least is an improvement on “Now I’ll have to kill you…”

            See, the human race _is_ getting more civilised.

    3. I once did some calculations for the Dutch national lottery. My conclusion was that an average participant could expect to die in a road accident 15 times before winning the jackpot once.

      1. Which is not a sensible metric to apply. Do you vote? What are the odds your vote will decide the election?
        If we are going to slam lottery players, let’s be accurate. What is the expected return? You have to adjust a bit for diminishing returns, but assuming what you want is a positive expected value, there have been a few times when buying a lottery ticket was the rational choice. Better than praying or voting.

        1. It’s perfectly reasonable illustrative figure, given that the advertising for the lottery is mostly based around the size of the jackpot. I’m intrigued to know which lotteries you think offer a positive rate of return.

      2. “die in a road accident 15 times”

        That must be tough. Most people only do it once.

        (Sorry ’bout that…)

  3. I will be following through on a resolution I made for 2014 and kept: getting in shape. No one would ever say I look grossly overweight or chubby, but I’ve started to get that man-in-his-50s paunch that I can’t stand! So I lost fifteen pounds in 2014, kept it off, and now aim to lose about five to ten more pounds — and then I will buff up a wee bit. Chris Hemsworth, watch out!

    As I type these words, it’s 12:08 NY time, and I’m now off to the gym. Hows that for commitment?

    1. I’ll second that. The meds are wreaking havoc on my weight and shape so it’s time to hit the streets again.

      Congratz on making it this far!

      1. Thanks. I can sum up in one sentence the best way to lose weight (outside of doing cardio and strength training): Don’t eat anything that’s made with flour. I know, that’s tough to follow. But it works!

        1. Maybe I should try that, but no bread?

          Runnning/biking is more my thing and I just can’t find the motivation on a treadmill or in the gym, so I’m doing it old-school.

          Hopefully there’s not much snow left this winter. ( already looking for excuses 🙂 )

          1. Sugar is worse — much worse — than wheat. And if it’s homemade whole wheat bread in moderation, I wouldn’t worry.

            Lots of fresh veggies with every meal is important. Add modest amounts of protein, unprocessed carbohydrates, and fats, and you’re basically set.

            For the exercise…it’s damned hard to beat bodyweight. No equipment, so you can do them anywhere; there’s that whole set of excuses gone. And it’s highly efficient of your time, aside from the lack of a need to go to the gym and change and shower and what-not; you work more muscles per movement with bodyweight than you do with any elaborate machine in the gym. And the safety concerns of free weights are basically nonexistent…for example, one-armed pushups with your feet on a chair are about the same as bench pressing twice your weight, but you don’t have this slippery bar with hundreds of pounds of steel at the ends that could come crashing down on your ribcage if you falter.

            See here for more:

            https://www.marklauren.com/

            His smartphone app is worth the purchase price of a smartphone….

            b&

          2. one-armed pushups with your feet on a chair are about the same as bench pressing twice your weigh

            So a two-armed push-up is equivalent to four times your weight?😁

          4. Thanks, Ben, I’ll check it out.

            I think I’ll start out by ramping up on the veggies, but I pretty much only eat once a day so proteins are high priority.

            Most fruits are not an option because of the ol’ gut, but I do love good bread. 🙂

          5. I think I’ll start out by ramping up on the veggies, but I pretty much only eat once a day so proteins are high priority.

            Um…not such a good idea. More smaller meals is much better all the way ’round, especially including for weight management, than fewer large meals. You’re putting your body into starvation mode, where it’s not sure where the next calories are going to come from, and so it holds onto as much as it can. Plus, the large spike in blood sugar and insulin from all those calories all at once…not good….

            b&

          6. It’s by no means a choice and I try to drink plenty of water at all times. Morbus Crohn unfortunately makes it a challenge to intake sufficient amounts of what is needed.

            I have seen a dietist though, and she recommended me to amp up on the proteins and calories when I can eat.

            So plenty of meat, creamy soups and lot’s of gravy. I can’t complain. 🙂

          7. I would like to add one more aspect of fitness . . . mobility. Following Dr. Kelly Starrett at http://www.mobilitywod.com and learning what he advocates is one of the most beneficial things you can ever do for yourself. Daily self maintenance will go far toward undoing the physical stresses placed upon our bodies by our sedentary jobs. Proper technique when performing bodyweight or weight training exercises goes far in staving off injuries. Wide stance push-ups will eventually lead to joint strain, which leads to damage. Doing them properly means you’ll be stronger as well as injury free. The same goes for squats, lunges, or pull-ups.

          8. I’m not familiar with Dr. Starrett, and that page doesn’t want to load…but I’d absolutely agree. And that’s one of the big advantages of bodyweight exercises: the movements are normal, natural ones that build strength at the things you actually do, as well as balance and range of motion and the like.

            b&

          9. “Eat plenty of fiber, drink lots of water, and be merry.”

            Sign in doctor’s office.

          12. On the contrary!

            Much of that fantastic Indian food you’re eating right now, especially all the vegetarian dishes, most especially the ones with all the legumes, are high in fiber. Fresh veggies, fresh fruit, nuts…who doesn’t love chowing down on some almonds and cashews? Artichokes…I could live on artichokes, practically. Oatmeal cooked with some berries or dates or the like and some nuts?

            High-fiber foods aren’t just healthy, some of them are culinarily essential. How could you do New Year’s dinner without blackeyed peas (with the bone from the Christmas ham, of course) and cornbread, and maybe come coleslaw?

            b&

          13. This is really quite good for a simple, succinct guideline — an easy guide to increase chances of adequate nutrients and also associated with decrease incidence of some chronic diseases. It’s not necessarily restricting your intake of things you enjoy.

    2. There was a nice gym near where I worked so I would go every day or an hour or so.
      Except for January. Way too crowded.

  5. I resolve to read fewer opinion pieces in right wing newspapers and the below the line comments attached to them. It’s making me ill.

    1. Comment sections in general have become fairly awful, except for WEiT for some reason. I predict and hope it stays that way.

      1. Comments are usually pretty much the bottom of the internet. Although this video of a Youtube gamer reading his “fan” comments make me giggle quite a bit, especially the end bit.

        1. That video IS mighty funny, Ms Grania !

          I, too, toast the interwebs’s commenters with m’New Rotation’s cycle … o’T E A R S !

          “ … dot.dot.dot: exclamation point !
          Thank you !”

          L O V E this Kliban !
          Blue

  6. Sub – French Dip.

    Dinner NYE was duck ravioli with veal meatballs appetizer. Bogarted some mussels from my wife.

    Was informed by my friend (yes, I have more than one friend) that the lobster bisque was the best he ever was served.

    2. I have read that frogs giving live birth to tadpoles is seen in many species in the tropics. There are also frogs that skip the tadpole stage, developing straight into froggy form. Eggs are food, and tadpoles are vulnerable, so the idea may be to skip all that and hit the ground hopping.

  8. I don’t know if this is a prediction or hope, maybe both, but I predict WEiT will not move to Patheos.

    1. I predict that there will be no stories where atheists force others to engage in the practice of atheism, and that there will be many where Christians try to have Christian beliefs inserted into government and science classrooms.

  9. I can tell by the piece on AGI that making predictions is a pretty useless endeavor and resolutions I just don’t do. If we just attempt to do things that make us happier and smarter – that should be first on the list. After that do things that will improve the rock we live on.

    On the national political level in this country I do not see much good coming soon. The prospect of another Clinton/Bush election cycle cannot be good and I do not predict reason with so many unreasonable people. The U.S.A. is well into an Oligarchy that really started 30 to 40 years ago and who can predict when that will change?

    1. The Oligarchy started with Reagan whom I believe was one of the most destructive Presidents in US history. And “they” still think trickle-down economics works even though it has been proven to be an abject failure. But let’s try it again…maybe it will work this time. The definition of insanity is rife in American politics.

      Reagan helped march in the age of the American billionaire; think how destructive billionaires are to our economy. What makes more sense for a strong economy, one family making a billion dollars a year or 10,000 families making 100k/year? First, a billion dollars spread through 10,000 families would not sit in off-shore accounts, and I guarantee that no billionaire owns 10,000 houses with the accompanying appliances, furniture, etc. Not to mention 20,000 cars, (since most families own 2). It just boggles my mind how we think creating billionaires is a sound economic strategy. It amazes me how Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are really the only politicians who talk about income inequality. I tell you it makes me queasy.

      1. The NY Times thinks $8-9B is some chunk of change for collegiate football to generate. I find myself comparing it to Bill Gates’s net worth ($50B?).

        I see also from the Times that the projected highest-paid college football coach will make $7M. That is a minimum 18 times the salary of the POTUS. I once compared the $3.2M salary of a university football coach to that of the POTUS. Eight times that of POTUS. Someone responded, “But think of the prestige of the presidency.” I got to thinking, “So, how much more would the football coach have to be paid to reach the level of prestige of the POTUS?”Conversely, how much lower on the federal civil “servant” totem pole would one have to descend to achieve the “prestige” of the football coach?

        1. When Babe Ruth was told he made more money than the president, he famously replied, “I had a better year than the president.”

      2. I’m not so sure supply-siders believe trickle-down economics “works” in any way but the way it has: smothering wage growth and shoveling the majority of economic benefits, and with it political power, into the hands of the few. It’s a scandal that they get away with presenting it as a boon to the average American. Corporate media is a mix of lazy, craven and self-interested reporters; any journalist, politician or other public figure who speaks truth to corporate power is quickly and successfully branded a hippie, communist, crackpot, traitor and worse – and, if that person is female, they throw in bi**h, lesbian and bad mother to boot.

        Demand drives economies up, not supply. Spending drives demand, not tax and spending cuts. I think conservative economists know this perfectly well; their project is free money and hegemony for the entitled, not anything like a level playing field for the “moochers” and “layabouts” in the fourth quintile and down.

        2. ” . . . is quickly and successfully branded a hippie, communist, crackpot, traitor and worse – and, if that person is female, they throw in bi**h, lesbian and bad mother to boot.”

          Add “populist.”

          It reasonably seems to me that the preamble to the U.S. Constitution could start with, “We The Populists of the United States . . . .”

          BTW, what is the opposite of “populist,” other than “anti-populist”? “Oligarchist”?

      3. “And “they” still think trickle-down economics works even though it has been proven to be an abject failure.”

        Sure works for your “they”, though.

  10. An on-line course on genetics and evolution by Dr. Noor at Duke University, through coursera, opened today. I am enrolled, having learned about it several months ago from someone in the comments here at WEIT, and having stumbled into WEIT because of my desire to learn more about evolution. A good beginning for the new year!

    1. Well, let us know what you are learning from time to time. Does he give a definition of a ‘gene’? It turns out that can be a slippery subject!

    2. Well, press on and complete the course and don’t drop out. What is the average completion rate for such courses?

      1. I think completion rates are very low for on-line classes, but I do not know the rates for this particular course. This is my first such attempt and I intend to give it serious effort. It will be difficult though, lots of new concepts for me.

  11. People that go up snowcapped mountains sometimes die there, but it seems there were additional risk factors in this case. ‘There’s no fear in death’, apparently, as a lightly-clad, happy-clappy Christian.

    1. The “Ascent to Life” Ministry.

      Apparently not this time.

      (Sorry ’bout that. I have never been accused of good taste. )

  12. Quiz question of the day. Who recently wrote:

    “Most serious writers on religion conflate the transcendent quest for meaning with the tribalistic defense of creation myths. They accept, or fear to deny, the existence of a personal deity. They read into the creation myths humanity’s effort to communicate with the deity, as part of the search for an uncorrupted life now and beyond death. Intellectual compromisers one and all, they include liberal theologians of the Niebuhr school, philosophers battening on learned ambiguity, literary admirers of C. S. Lewis, and others persuaded, after deep thought, that there must be Something Out There. They tend to be unconscious of prehistory and the biological evolution of human instinct, both of which beg to shed light on this very important subject.”

      1. None other than E. O. Wilson in his latest. This time around he doubles down on group selection, but the chapter on Religion has a very New Atheist flavor.

          1. He came up with a very clever formula for discovering “The Meaning of Human Existence” – just redefine the word “meaning.” How stupid of me not to think of it!

  13. My new year resolution is to buy a fancy camera and to spend a lot of free time crawling on my belly taking pix of arthropods.

    1. I will continue photographing plants. As for fancy camera, I need to acquire one for use with my dissecting microscope.

        1. Not bad! with some cropping and color correction it would be passable.
          Best I can do with the real small stuff, besides holding an iphone to a microscope, is to clip on one of the ‘macro’ lenses onto it. For every 30 or so pictures I can maybe get one that is decent.

          1. Yeah, that was way before I ever attempted any post-processing. Part of my problem is that the ‘scope lights are dimming and the stage is filthy. 😀

            But I was so thrilled when I discovered I could just stick the lens of my old Nikon Coolpix 300 into an eyepiece and get good shots. And then when I discovered I could also use the cam’s zoom through the scope, I was off to the races. 🙂

          2. So far my attempts to photograph through the eyepiece have failed, but you are inspiring me to try again. I want to photograph things like perigynia and lemmas, and at least they aren’t swimming around.

          3. Once you hit on the method, it’s a piece of cake. The hardest part for me, I think, was lining up the fields of view…unless the camera is pointed just right, part of the scope image is obscured. With hand-holding, I found it important not to have too much coffee. I also dimmed the room lights to avoid unwanted reflections.

            I also learned to rely on the cam’s focusing info; out-of-focus warnings were usually correct, but sometimes it only mattered that you go with what your cam lcd screen showed you. I also used burst a lot, but that was mostly because I was usually looking at plankters that were moving!

            So, for me, obviously, it was mostly a matter of trial and error. After a while it became easy. I persevered because so many interesting minute things emerged in my reef tanks; but also used the system to sex my tarantulas (from part of the shed skin), etc.

            I think the most important thing is to have a lens that fits into the scope eyepiece. If the scope has exit-pupil rubber cups that fold down for glasses-wearers, it helps to fold them out to hold the cam in place. You can still use glasses for viewing the lcd image.

            It was also natural to stand up to do this, with my scope on my dining room table. If it were on a lab bench, one might need a step stool.

            Yes, I’m at the baling string and chewing gum level of technology… 😀

          4. Go on eBay & buy yourself an old point-&-shoot with a lens small enough to fit into one of the scope eye cups. I replaced my Coolpix 3100 with the exact same cam when the original crapped out. Got one for $30.

            BTW, I didn’t even use any slowing agent for the trematodes, so they were not only tiny and moving up and down through the water column, they were moving around, too; esp. as the heat began to get to them.

  14. I’m repeating my resolution of the last few decades: I intend to grow taller.

    I looked at one of those height/weight charts, and I appear to have a height problem.

    1. On my refrigerator door I have a weight/height card and in big letters it says ‘Now you don’t have to lie about your weight anymore, now you can lie about your height!’

  16. For those who want to lose weight, try myfitnesspal.com. There are both a free website and a free app for smartphones.

    This app allows you to keep set your own goals, keep track of the calories burned up by exercise and consumed by eating and drinking.

    There are ancillary aids such as friends links, blogs, etc.

    It actually works.

    2. Is it “one weird trick”? The Internet tells me a man in my local area achieved his fitness goals with “one weird trick” so that’s what I think I should be looking for.

      1. My experience is that when I use it I lose weight and when I stop using it I gain weight. There is no trick; but I guess it depends on the accuracy of the caloric assignments for exercise and food. Sometimes I think I should lose weight and I don’t; other times I lose weight unexpectedly. Generally using it I lose weight. But if I am not paying attention to the numbers on a daily basis, I gain weight.

  17. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2015/01/150101-national-geographic-magazine-animals-cover-birds-bears-apes-natural-history/

    If you do a little maths and conflate some obvious groups, you get 30 birds, 18 primates, 13 big cats, and 12 bears in the most popular subjects for covers of National Geographic. Dogs (wolves) get only 4 covers, with foxes also getting 3. Cats beat dogs, and are only beaten buy ourselves (primates), and birds, which covers a huge number of species and has the unfair benefit of feathers which are very colourful and fancy.

    2. I always think of life as a bonus.
      The odds of you actually existing is vanishingly small – you have won an improbable lottery!
      Also, but for the happy chance that there was someone available nearby who knew what to do, I would have died in my adolescence.
      Double bonus.

      2. “The odds of you actually existing is vanishingly small”

        I’d say the odds of me existing is 100%, since I do exist (so far as I can tell). If I didn’t exist I wouldn’t be around to know how tough the odds were. It’s kind of a meaningless statistic. So I don’t think one can attribute ones existence to any sort of fortune or luck. It just is.

        And while my background is just one among the many millions of possible backgrounds – well I have to have one background and what I have is what I’ve got.

        On the other hand I do feel very lucky to be me and not, say, some starving beggar in Calcutta being haranged by crazy old Albanian nuns, for example. And I agree BillyJoe can count it as good luck that he didn’t die in adolescence.

  19. A quote I just heard from the annual Vienna New Year’s Concert on PBS (wish I could remember the author’s name): “He who loves not wine, women, and song, remains a fool his whole life long.” Guess what waltz that quote introduced? Happy New Year everyone.

  20. I once joked with my father-in-law, who is a compulsive gambler, that he should always buy 2 tickets because you double your odds for just another buck and a dollar will never go that far again after the second ticket.

    He insisted that buying 2 tickets doesn’t double your odds, but never explained why. He also proceeded to explain how stupid I am for not playing the lottery. Go figure…

  21. I had to completely stop reading Patheos this week because of a malware infected fake android update that redirects you to it *every* time you click on a link.

    Screw patheos and their dodgy ad system that has the potential to infect the phones and/or computers of its users.

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