El pulpo es correcta: Spain 1, Germany 0

July 7, 2010 • 2:19 pm

The final on Sunday will be between Netherlands and Spain—Spain’s first entry ever to a World Cup final (or even a quarter final!)  Indeed, maybe this game was the final, since I’m betting that Spain will (as Germany would hav ) walk over Netherlands.  But what do I know, except that I’m for Spain.

I still don’t believe, though, that Paul is prescient.  And now he’s receiving death threats from angry German fans.  They want to eat him!

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A fair number of you in our World Cup contest guessed Spain and the Netherlands in the final.  Most of the feasible scores are covered, too, so there should be a winner.

30 thoughts on “El pulpo es correcta: Spain 1, Germany 0”

  2. I am very disappointed. The German team has up until tonight been the joy of the tournament, and now Spain is in the final on the back of only one really good match and a miserly 7 goals in 6 matches.

    Anyway; I’m still behind Spain in the finals. Dutch football-fans tend to rub me the wrong way somehow.

      1. That is not exactly fair. Spain has made huge strides in the recent years, not least legalizing gay marriage in 2005. And the churches keep getting emptier.
        I will be rooting for Spain.

        1. I had in my mind the number of players I noticed crossing themselves and or pointing to the sky during matches but point taken.

          2. all post hoc, quarterback monday, no pun intended, commentaries are useless. The fact is Spain destroyed the krauts. Neanderlands follow.

    2. WHAT?
      How can you NOT be for the Netherlands, with a last name like that?

      1. My Dutch ancestor is 8 generations back (or something like that), and just because there is straight male lineage from him to me, it doesn’t mean I feel very Dutch at all.

        Anyway; Germany is the only team that fielded a player called Jansen, if Netherlands came around to doing that… The maybe I’ll give them a cheer.

  4. One of your previous posts discusses what would convince skeptics of God’s existence. Maybe God is showing that he exists through a squid that predicts games correctly about 80% of the time… You can’t prove that God isn’t talking to that mollusk, can you?

    1. Rev Robertson, in his infalliblity, makes amazing predictions annually about what will happen in the US, which obviously, have to come true. For instance, if he predicts a tsunami, he claims credit when rains. He claims that he receives the info direclty from god himself. And he is proud of his “track record”.
      It puzzles me, the source of the data being the almighty, how is it that any track record of less than 100% accuracy is even remotely acceptable. Faulty transmission?

  5. Well, the Germans have played in this tournament some cracking Blitzkrieg football, wonderfully adapted to their strengths.

    I admit it, I was afraid (and believed) that Spain would fall victim to its, well, original sin, (yes, the authorized LOL Cat Bible calls it “sin”, too) namely, tossing the ball and moving around too slowly and without the intent of shooting immediately when it is possible. They proved my fears only partially justified.

    Del Bosque made the very wise decision of putting Pedro to the opening and taking Torres in only after Spain had scored as the game was then much better suited to the present form of Torres. For most of the time, Spain had wonderful fluidity and movement in their game – and also their focus was firmly on the cookies.

    In effect, they pre-emptively eliminated Germany´s strengths. In fact, Germany looked for most of the time just a poor sparring team to Spain. That is how the Beautiful Game should be played.

    As for Paul the Octopus, well, its impressive successes can be viewed as an intent to participate in the “What would make you ready to start believing in teh Ceiling Cat” – competition. I, for one, would already be wholly convinced, except that I know that Paul is just a very good Bayesian…

    1. Spain looked so fluid because Germany sat back and let them play with the ball instead of closing them down the way they did to Argentina (and the way Spain did to Germany). Germany played the same gutless strategy as Portugal and got the same result. Spain went after the Germans when the Germans had the ball and Germany did not return the favour. Löw lost his nerve and tried to play safe. The end of the game showed that the placid Spanish possession of the rest of the game was not due solely to the Spanish but reflected the earlier German passivity.

      Against a team that has shown it won’t score much, you can risk pressing. Germany didn’t risk pressing and they got the predictable result, a loss to Spain. If Netherlands plays the same game of sitting back and waiting for Spain to make an unpressed mistake, they’ll meet the same fate as Germany and Portugal. Paraguay showed the way to make life difficult with Spain. Some team with better talent than Paraguay needs to give it a try.

      1. Well, I agree that Germany should have tried a more aggressive and enterprising tactic. I am sure that the Dutch will do that, despite the risk of receiving yellows and even that fateful red.

        Still, Spain played against Germany with the style they have not showed until the semifinal.

        It is, in fact, very difficult to get the ball back from a team that passes it quickly and very accurately and when the movement of the players is great.

        There are some legendary games where Barcelona has kept the ball for ages, despite the increasingly desperate attempts of the opposition to take it away from them. The point here is that chasing after a ball, that is moving so frustratingly, breaks the rhythm of the opposition and is tiresome.

        The Dutch will be determined to avoid that fate and will play to their own strength: aerial bombardment to the box, corners and free kicks can be expected…

  6. I predicted a Holland win at the start of the tournament. I am sticking to my guns.

    1. “predicted” you claim a scientific basis for “predicting” soccer?? jajajaja

  7. I strongly suspect that Paul the octopus has a human collaborator who helps him make informed guesses. They give him 2 servings of food and whichever he goes to first is his prediction, right? Seems like octopus handlers might have a good idea what kinds of food an octopus would prefer, and might have an interest in swaying the predictions…

  8. justsearching: “Maybe God is showing that he exists through a squid that predicts games correctly about 80% of the time… You can’t prove that God isn’t talking to that mollusk, can you?”

    Does that mean he is the Octapostle Paul?

  10. Well, Spain wear red & sports teams that wear red are supposed to be more likely to win –
    http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20327232.400-winners-wear-red-how-colour-twists-your-mind.html

    Unless you are England!
    And as they failed their World cup exam this other study from Rochester says red is associated with failure in exam situations -http://www.rochester.edu/news/show.php?id=2801

    I suppose the octopus is a bit like the flying spaghetti monster… only under water & real! Hang on – octo-pus = octo-kitteh! q.e.d.

  11. Small niggle, Spain have been in many a quarter final, but this was their first semi-final

  12. Nobody has scored one single goal to Spain. The only goal they have received was an own goal.

    1. Spain has given up two goals. You need an excuse for the other one, Jose.

      1. You’re right!! I was just thinking about Switzerland and forgot about Chile! My bad.

        That was an own goal too though. (Piqué hit the ball with his knee) How’s that for a lame excuse? 🙂

  13. I just agree with the first comment: “el pulpo es correcta” is wrong spanish…I would say “el pulpo acertó” or “el pulpo está en lo correcto” 🙂

    And I hope, Paul takes the Holland´s box!

    1. “wrong spanish”??whats that and maybe el pulpo is transexual, in that case could be “correcta”. The only applicable verb is soccer is “adivino”. which means no rationale behind it.

      1. no. you are wrong. Do you know what´s the meaning of “wrong”? “adivino” is not a verb! and if the pulpo is transexual, it doesn´t matter. Still “correcta” is wrong.

  14. Paul has now made its calls: Germany will win the Bronze match and Spain the final!

    I have also received, via sources more hush-hush than Wikileak, a message from Paul himself:

    “OK, I sort of agree with PZ Myers that this may be getting out of control now; we do know what happened when Orson Wells produced that “The War of Worlds” back in 30s. If I continue giving these “psychic” verdicts correctly, many superstitious people – and they are many, even outside the world of football – will start hunting my brethren in the hope of getting some supernatural guidance.
    I have bee doing because I know how much all this means to football fans: they need to find a way to release a little tension and my calls have served this need pretty well, I think.

    But I am not a “psychic”, but just a scientifically oriented Cephalopod guy who uses the best statistical inference techniques and best available evidence to make the predictions. The rest is due to luck, pure and simple.

    By predicting victories for Germany and Spain I am now signalling that I am swimming in the mainstream. If I am right, most people will understand that I am saying what other experts are saying, If I am wrong, they will see that even experts make mistakes. No prophetic, supernatural or psychic powers here.

    Hopes that this helps.

    Yours, touching you all with my tentacles

    Paul, See Life (Oberhausen)

    P.S. By the way, some people have asked whether I would be willing to give them hints about handball, too.
    No, I do not think that is a good idea as I am not, as a Cephalopod, very interested in football, which is good for my Bayesian activities. As for handball, I play it myself, and find it difficult to retain my objectivity…”

    So, that was the hush-hush message my anonymous sources leaked straight from Paul – hope it helps!

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