Why Evolution is True is a blog written by Jerry Coyne, centered on evolution and biology but also dealing with diverse topics like politics, culture, and cats.
Bill’s take on the debate in 1.5 minutes:. “Trump told lie after lie after lie. . . he wouldn’t have gotten away with it if Joe Biden had been there.” As for Biden, “I’ve seen beauty pageant contestants answer questions better.”
Here’s Bill’s 10-minute monologue, in which he delivers a mock TED talk (with appropriate attire and gestures) telling young men how to find women using his “G.A.M.E.” strategy. And yes, it’s very sound, especially because Maher’s had a ton of experience.
Here, just posted, is a speech Biden gave today, after last night’s debate debacle. It’s terrific, passionate, and not doddering at all. Are there two Joe Bidens? Does he have a Doppelgänger?
Maybe he was nervous last night.
Here’s an 11-minute video of CNN commentators (and a few guests), most of whom are certainly Democrats, discussing the debate and agreeing that Biden’s performance was dismal—that Biden appeared disengaged and incompetent. As David Axelrod notes, Biden did make some good points, but his performance, particularly near the beginning, made Democrats panic.
Yes, of course Trump blustered and lied, but his supporters are used to that, and probably ignore the lies. Debates are about appearances, not substance, and appearances were critically important in this debate when so many Americans, like me, are worried about Biden’s ability to run the country. Biden flunked. And remember too, he has coattails. If Biden’s defeated, it will affect other Democrats across the country. We’re faced with the prospect of a Republic President, a Congress with two Republican houses, and a conservative, pro-Republican Supreme Court.
My view is the same as that of most of the commentators, and I especially agree with Van Jones. “it was painful.” But I also liked his quip: it was “an old man versus a con man.” Jones added this:
“I just want to speak from my heart. I love that guy. That’s a good man. He loves his country; he’s doing the best that he can. But he had a test to meet tonight—to restore confidence of the country in a debate, and he failed to do that. And I think there’s a lot of people who are going to want to see him consider taking a different course now. We’re still far from our convention, and it’s time for this party to figure out a different way forward if he will allow us to do that. But that was not what we needed from Joe Biden, and it’s personally painful for a lot of people: it’s just panic—it’s pain.”
Most of us Democrats harbor similar affection for Biden, but that doesn’t mean he should now run the country.
A different way forward? Who could the Democrats nominate now? The money has come in, the posters and buttons are printed, and the Democratic Convention is ready to roll. Will Biden step aside now? I wouldn’t bet on it. He and his wife appear convinced that he did okay. And who could take on the painful job of saying, “Joe, it’s time to step aside”?
From Richard:
Here’s your chance to weigh in on the debate in the comments.
I’m watching the debate now, and have gone through an hour. It’s pretty bad: Biden wobbles and Trump lies. So far Biden isn’t totally out of it and has made some good points. But he does look as if age has taken its toll. He’s a good man—far better than Trump—but Trump is winning. Half an hour to go. Here are some “must watch” moments from the debate selected by CNN; the video 35 minutes long:
All I can say is this: I TOLD YOU SO! Every time I worried and kvetched on this site about Biden’s scary shows of incompetence and inscentience, some readers took me to task, even asserting that I was trying to promote Trump. To those folks: do you still think Biden is a good choice for President? You may say he’s better than Trump—and I will never vote for Trump—but how competent will he be in a couple of years? Seriously!
Well, last night’s debate vindicated me, but also terrified me, because Biden’s performance was apparently so appalling that Democrats throughout America are calling for someone to replace him as a candidate—at this last minute! Trump, meanwhile, blustered and lied a lot, but clearly came off looking better. We Democrats had better regroup! Ceiling Cat help us all!
Here’s this morning’s NYT headlines. You can read the stories behind the headlines on the top and left here, and here, respectively:
Here’s Nellie Bowles (a liberal) giving her take on the debate at the Free Press:
→ The debate happened: I don’t know where to begin. In my home we’ve been screaming at the TV for two hours as I write this. Biden walked on stiff, uncomfortable, strange. He held a bewildered expression throughout the night, his mouth slightly open, his eyes wide, staring off into the distance, rarely smiling. I won’t say Trump looked young (he isn’t), but he is less stiff and his eyes blinked normally, jaw firmly in control of mouth. And then they started talking. The extent of Biden’s cognitive decline is undeniable and, speaking as a citizen who wishes my president the best, devastating. For a strange moment as the debate went on, the entire media commentariat was in agreement: this is a disaster for Joe Biden, and the Democrats need to replace him.
Here’s Nicholas Kristof, éminence grise of progressive political commentators: “I wish Biden would reflect on this debate performance and then announce his decision to withdraw from the race, throwing the choice of Democratic nominee to the convention.” Here’s Kasie Hunt, CNN anchor: “The voice, open-mouthed look, and visual contrast between President Biden and former President Trump all have Democrats I’m talking to nearly beside themselves watching this debate.” Here’s top pollster Dave Wasserman: “This debate making abundantly clear that Biden’s insistence on running for another term. . . has gravely jeopardized Dems’ prospects to defeat Trump.”
The low moment for Trump was probably when Biden said Trumpo had “the morals of an alley cat” (great line). And Trump found himself saying: “I didn’t have sex with a porn star.” Which is just. I mean. With all due respect. . .
Low moment for Biden, other than overall presentation, was when his words became a nonsensical garble and then the camera panned to an alarmed-looking Trump for his response. “I really don’t know what he said,” Trump says. “I don’t think he knows what he said either.” Or maybe it was when Biden said, perplexingly: “We finally beat Medicare.”
High moment for both was the two of them fighting about their golf skills. Biden goes: “I got my handicap when I was vice president down to a 6.” Trump hits back: “That’s the biggest lie—that he’s a 6 handicap—of all.” Biden: “I was an 8 handicap and—and—” Trump: “I’ve seen your swing. I know your swing.”
And kudos to CNN’s moderators Jake Tapper and Dana Bush, praised by the left and right for being fair. Turning off the mics after each candidate hit their time limit was really smart, as was having no studio audience. It made for a calmer, more focused debate, and it made it harder for Trump to be a bully. But it still didn’t save Joe.
On CNN, Kate Bedingfield, Biden’s former communications director, said: “It was a really disappointing debate performance from Joe Biden. I don’t think there’s any other way to slice it.” Van Jones, close to tears, suggested Biden should drop out. CNN correspondent John King said senior Democrats are considering going to the White House to urge Biden to drop out. The most positive thing former Obama campaign chief David Axelrod could muster was to warn Republicans that if Biden did drop out, Trump might be in trouble.
I won’t fact-check here, but they both told huge and strange lies (Trump said Democrats allow killing children after they’ve been born full-term; Biden said the Border Patrol guys endorsed him). Maybe I’m slap-happy, but this random left-wing Twitter account made me laugh a lot.
In a last-minute scramble, Biden’s team leaked to friendly media: The President has a cold. The Biden after-party featured an extraordinarily animated Jill Biden saying to her husband: “Joe, you did such a great job. You answered every question! You knew all the facts. And let me ask the crowd, what did Trump do? He lieeeed!”
I think the question we all have to ask after tonight is simple: If this is Biden, who’s been running our country? Like, practically, who’s been doing the job job of it? Jill Biden? The White House handyman? The interns? Karl Rove? A random Houthi? I’m not mad, I just want to know. Because the people who have been pushing to keep him in office certainly know he’s this bad, and they must like it that way. Weak and confused, he can be used, kept as a pet moderate. Interns, release the old man, just tell us your demands, and we can figure something out.
All right, it’s the turn of readers to weigh in. What do you think? Did Biden really do that badly (I’m watching the debate as I write)? Should he be replace? (And isn’t it too late?). If you’re a Democrat, as most of us are, do you still plan to vote for Biden, or will you not vote at all for President (something I contemplate on and off in a state where Biden’s victory is assured)? And if you chewed me out for saying in earlier posts that Biden looked bad, you’re welcome to apologize! 🙂
Your opinion below, please, while I finish watching this debacle. And I’m adding a poll, so please vote, too
[poll id=”39″]
YouTube hasn’t yielded Bill Maher’s comedy segment from his latest “Real Time” show, but I found something nearly as good: his conversation this week with the ladies of “The View”. There are two parts, which I put in reverse order, but both show that Maher’s appeal isn’t just from his (or his assistants’) comedy scripts, but also a general eloquence and thoughtfulness. There’s no script here; he just argues and discusses wokeness, the Presidential candidates, and the war in Gaza with five outspoken women.
I found the second part of Maher’s appearance (10 minutes) more interesting, and so put it first part (9.5 minutes). Watch in reverse order if you want to see the whole thing. All of it’s good.
What happened to Jon Stewart?
It’s “common knowledge” that in the current conflict between Hamas and Israel, younger Americans (say, below 30), tend to favor Palestine, while older ones favor Israel. And that’s what I’ve thought for a long time—until I saw this poll highlighted at the Elder of Ziyon site. The poll, taken by by Harvard’s Center for American Political Studies collaborating with the Harris organization, was done by legitimate organizations, and for me it paints a more optimistic picture of Americans’ views about Israel. And that even includes young people. There’s a lot of different questions asked that I haven’t discussed here, but I’ll concentrate on the news on Israel, throwing in a bit of polling on Biden and Trump.
The Harvard/Harris polls’s pdf is here(or click to read):
These figures are reproduced at the Elder of Ziyon site, but I used the Harris/Harvard originals for clarity. Click the photos to enlarge them, and note that figures are often broken down by age, political affiliation, and viewpoint at the bottom.
Most voters, even young ones, tend to both support Israel and feel that Israel is trying to minimize civilian casualties. That’s far from a “genocide” view, though voters under 24 show substantially weaker support for Israel. Over that age support rises strongly, and is pretty much bipartisan.
The figure below surprised me, since I thought most people would favor a conditional ceasefire even when Hamas was still in nominal power and when not all of the hostages had been released. Note below that the GOP takes a harder line than do the Democrats:
Who should administer Gaza after the war? On the left, a big majority say it shouldn’t be Hamas, but notice the large age effect: older people are appreciably less willing to let Hamas run the territory. On the right, choosing between Israel, the PA or some new Arab authority to run Gaza, it’s pretty much a three-way split, but Israel is the plurality vote overall.
Given Biden’s opposition to a “red line” Israeli invasion of Rafah, this result surprised me too, but the stand is biparisan, and the majority holds with age, though the hard-line position increases with age:
Here the split is closer, but still, even in most age groups a majority of people say that the Biden administration “not giving weapons to Israel” (actually, it’s just bombs, I think) both gives confidence to Hamas and hurts the hostage negotiations. Given this, I’m also surprised that more Americans, including Biden, aren’t making a strong call for Hamas to surrender completely and give back all the hostages. If only there were such a world. . . .
Here we have a majority of Americans opposing Biden’s previous stand (it seems to change from day to day) that Israel entering Rafah should prevent the U.S. from giving some weapons to Israel. Again, The GOP takes a harder line (most Dems, in fact, favor withholding weapons), but so do older people, though the age effect isn’t huge:
To me the question on the left is pretty clear cut, but blame for Hamas is bipartisan—again with older people (over 25) putting more of the blame on Hamas. On the right, Democrats believe the accuracy of Hamas’s casualty figures far more than do Republicans, and so do people under 44. Given the recent revisions on women and children by the UN versus the Hamas figures, I expect that these views would be somewhat different now.
Transitioning to Biden, there’s a big split (as expected) between Democrats and Republicans on whether Biden’s policy on Israel is based more on his perception of American interests versus his desire to take the right stand to be elected. (Actually, the question combines both views in the “re-election” bit.) Most Americans are cynics on this issue, but only by 6%, and Democrats take the “national interest” part far more than do Republicans.
Overall, as a supporter of Israel I’m pleased with these results, and with Americans’ refusal to be gulled by Biden waffling.
Speaking of which, here are two graphs that don’t bode well for our current President in November’s elections, but it’s early days yet:
On the other hand, half of voters think that Trump would be a threat to democracy if elected, and 55% think that Trump has committed crimes (45% think he has not).
h/t: Malgorzata
This article, from Claire Berlinski‘s Substack site was written by her as well as by John Oxley, and paints a picture of Biden as a doddering old fool with no clear take on foreign policy. Biden, they say, has waffled so much on his Israel policy, including his decision to stop most military weapons sold to Israel, that he’ll lose the vote of both Muslims and Jews—a hard thing to do. It also includes ten summaries of and links to other articles, all criticizing Biden and all worth reading. It’s a valuable piece, and those of you who are so certain that Biden will win should read the whole thing. (Claire abhors Trump, by the way; like me, she just wants the Left on a sane foundation.)
Claire, by the way, is the daughter of evolution opponent David Berlinski, but seems to have a whole lot more common sense.
Clicking on the headline may get you one free read, but you also may wish to subscribe, as I enjoy Berlinski’s prose—and ideas. (The articles are written by Berlinski and other people.) Try clicking on the headline:
I’ll quote a lot of her short article, and be sure to read the Bret Stephens article mentioned in the first sentence (it’s archived here).
I just saw this column by Bret Stephens, who echoes my sentiments almost verbatim. I hadn’t seen that when we recorded this last night, and obviously, he hadn’t listened to this podcast.1 But he wrote more or less exactly what I’ve said here.
All of this is disastrous for Biden, and thus disastrous for us all.
I figured until this that he was basically a savvy politician who understood why the American electorate put him in power quite well. Normalcy. Not extremism. But I was wrong. He’s in a bubble. He doesn’t understand how much of his support comes from people like me.
People like me—and I suspect the majority of Americans, even still—loathe the far right. They also loathe the far left and the Islamists. People like me have for years rejected the argument that Biden is dangerously in the sway of the Islamists and the far left on the grounds that it’s absurd to say so. Befuddled though he may be, Biden is clearly an old-fashioned center-leftist, firmly in the postwar American tradition. He’s not going to do anything grotesquely offensive in office. Trump, meanwhile, is literally—not just metaphorically or hyperbolically—insane, a Clusterfuck B personality disorder on cloven hooves. It really is an open question whether the American republic would survive another term under his aegis.
I still maintain this—passionately. For all his deficits, and there are so many, there’s no option but Joe Biden. The prospect of a second Trump presidency is too terrible to consider.
But until recently, I had allowed myself not to consider it. I believed, in some primitive, unjustifiable way, that it just couldn’t happen. That Americans will somehow come to their senses before Election Day.
I no longer think so. What this tells me is that Biden is so out of touch that he’s confused the campus of Columbia with mainstream American opinion. It’s an unforced and terrible error. It tells me the people around him—including his cabinet—are giving him awful advice. Neither he nor his advisors have properly understood how many Americans want to vomit when they see those spoiled, pampered, Hamas-loving campus imbeciles demanding “humanitarian aid”—for themselves. So they don’t get peckish during their sleepover parties with their little chums.
It’s not just the greasy-pole climbers like Elise Stefanik who feel this way. There’s a broad American center that cannot stand what we’ve recently seen emerging from these institutions. They will instinctively and immediately understand that Biden has decided to pander to them at the expense of our ally, and they will understand that in doing so, he has made us weaker. They may not be able to admit or articulate to themselves what causes them to stay home on Election Day. But it will be this—this, and our withdrawal from Afghanistan, our timidity in arming Ukraine, our misbegotten efforts to coax Iran back into a nuclear deal it clearly does not want. This—and Biden’s infernal mumbling, stuttering, and slurring. This—and the massive, coordinated information war that Russia and China will mount on Trump’s behalf. (There will be a hell of an October Surprise. I promise.) This, and the failure of our judiciary to swiftly put Trump behind bars— not for paying off a porn star, but for attempting a coup. All of this, together, is enough to win Trump reelection.
I have no idea how Biden made this decision, or why. How could he fail to appreciate that it’s the political kiss of death to be lauded by Ilhan Omar? Her words will be on GOP attack ads from now until Election Day.
In capitulating to his party’s loons and cranks, Biden has breathed life into a GOP argument that until now was easy to dismiss—viz., that the crackpots are secretly running his administration.
This is a disastrous headline for Joe Biden:
(The headline below is from a WBMA, an ABC news site in Birmingham, Alabama).
Here’s a new tweet by AOC, echoing the misguided claim that invading Rafah is a “red line”. What she doesn’t say it that crossing that line would make both Israel and the world safer. In other words, AOC (and Biden) simply want Hamas to persist as the rulers of Gaza.
Biden has not “lost his mind.” He is upholding the word of the US.
There are 1.3 million people in Rafah. You do not need to slaughter them to go after Hamas.
Biden stated the US red line was Rafah. It would make us weaker & the world less safe to let Bibi, or anyone, cross it. https://t.co/EKaGyYnyDH
— Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (@AOC) May 9, 2024
If AOC, Omar, and the other “squaddies” were in college, they’d be encamped.