Thursday: Hili dialogue

Welcome to Thursday, April 30, 2026, with May nearly upon us.  It’s also National Bugs Bunny Day, celebrating the day the dwatted wabbit made his first appearance in 1938. And here it is, in “Porky’s Hare Hunt.” Bugs first appears 46 second in, as wily as ever.

It’s also Adopt a Shelter Pet Day, National Bubble Tea Day, National Oatmeal Cookie Day (best to abjure these and have chocolate chip cookies), National Raisin Day (one reason oatmeal cookies are lame) and International Jazz Day,  Here’s Coleman Hawkins playing one of my favorites (and his most famous song): “Body and Soul”:

Finally, there’s a Google Doodle today celebrating Route 66: America’s most famous highway (and its remaining attractions), a road that’s largely been replaced and subsumed into other roads: It’s celebrated today because, as Wikipedia says, “The numerical designation 66 was assigned to the Chicago-to-Los Angeles route on April 30, 1926.”

When you click on the screenshot above, it shows the route of that road, which extends from Santa Monica in California to good old Chicago:

Readers are welcome to mark notable events, births, or deaths on this day by consulting the April 30 Wikipedia page.

Da Nooz:

*Trump has told his aides that the U.S. should prepare for a long blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which of course means a long war.

President Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran, U.S. officials said, targeting the regime’s coffers in a high-risk bid to compel a nuclear capitulation Tehran has long refused.

In recent meetings, including a Monday discussion in the Situation Room, Trump opted to continue squeezing Iran’s economy and oil exports by preventing shipping to and from its ports. He assessed that his other options—resume bombing or walk away from the conflict—carried more risk than maintaining the blockade, officials said.

Yet continuing the blockade also prolongs a conflict that has driven up gas prices, hurt Trump’s poll numbers and further darkened Republicans’ prospects in the midterm elections. It has also caused the lowest number of transits through the Strait of Hormuz since the war began.

Since ending the major bombing campaign in an April 7 cease-fire, Trump has repeatedly walked back from escalating the conflict, opening space for diplomacy after earlier threatening to destroy the entirety of Iranian civilization. But he still wants to tighten the grip on the regime until it caves to his key demand: dismantling all of Iran’s nuclear work. On Monday, Trump told aides that Iran’s three-step offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and save nuclear talks for the final phase proved Tehran wasn’t negotiating in good faith, The Wall Street Journal reported.

For now, Trump is comfortable with an indefinite blockade, which he wrote Tuesday on Truth Social is pushing Iran toward a “State of Collapse.” A senior U.S. official said the blockade is demonstrably crushing Iran’s economy—it is straining to store its unsold oil—and sparked fresh outreach by the regime to Washington.

Trump’s decision represents a new phase of sorts of the war and highlights the fact that the president, who always seeks a quick and salable victory, is devoid of a silver bullet.

Unilaterally stopping the fight offers a quick exit to the conflict and relief to the U.S. and global economies. But Iran’s proposal last weekend would have allowed Tehran to set the terms of that off-ramp.

Restarting hostilities, meanwhile, would further weaken a battered Iran, but it would likely react by wreaking more havoc on Gulf energy infrastructure, bolstering the costs of the war. The blockade shrinks the Islamic Republic’s funds but commits U.S. forces to a longer deployment in the Middle East—with no guarantee the regime capitulates.

“Iran is calculating that its ability to withstand and circumvent the blockade outstrips the U.S. interest in preventing a wider energy crisis and potentially a global recession,” said Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert and vice president of the Brookings Institution’s foreign policy program. “A regime that slaughtered its own citizens to silence protests in January is fully prepared to impose economic hardships on them now.”

Iran is making that calculation, but it’s risking political suicide in the hopes that the Hormuz blockage will wreak havoc on the entire world.  This, however, is probably the savviest move that Trump can make, and there’s always a chance—albeit a small one—that a population forced to suffer economic hardship on top of political oppression could revolt.  But as we know, the theocracy could give a rat’s patootie about the well-being of the Iranian people.

*It’s Noon in Israel explains the significance of the UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC.

It’s Wednesday, April 29, and the United Arab Emirates has announced its departure from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). As the group’s third-largest producer, the move is monumental. By way of comparison, it is akin to a permanent member of the Security Council leaving the United Nations—except, of course, the world actually cares about what OPEC has to say.

. . .So, why now?

Well, the oil market is vastly different from that of the 1970s. The first blow to the OPEC monopoly was that the U.S. now ranks among the world’s top three exporters of crude following the shale revolution in the 2010s. The U.S.’s impending control over the reserves of one of OPEC’s founding members, Venezuela, is another, and Operation Roaring Lion is the third. During the recent conflict, production policy was coordinated through OPEC, but in some ways it was every oil nation for itself: the Saudis had their contingency for bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, and the UAE had its own.

The exit also resolves a long-standing tension between the UAE’s rapidly expanding production capacity—which targeted 5 million barrels per day by 2027—and restrictive cartel quotas that forced the nation to operate roughly 30 percent below its capability. This is reflective of a fundamental difference in interests: Saudi Arabia requires crude prices near $80 per barrel to balance its national budget and fund Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s ambitious plans for the country.

Conversely, the UAE possesses a vastly more diversified economy and massive sovereign wealth funds. The UAE’s overall economic health is tied more closely to global macroeconomic growth than to the nominal price of a barrel of oil. By exiting OPEC and actively increasing global supply to lower energy costs, the UAE can deliberately stimulate the global economy, curb Western inflation and thereby bolster the returns of its own massive international investment portfolios.

Perhaps most interestingly, the withdrawal signals a deepening geopolitical rift with Saudi Arabia. Though the two nations have long clashed through proxies in Yemen and Sudan, the UAE is now charting a more permanent, independent course—one that hugs the U.S. and Israeli coasts rather than being bound to the Saudi winds. This isn’t just speculation; MBZ’s top adviser, often considered his mouthpiece, has grown increasingly vocal about his disappointment with the Arab League and the Gulf Cooperation Council. But even when the relationship isn’t overtly adversarial, the UAE is clearly finished with regional conformity.

Well, this answers the questions I had yesterday about the significance of the UAE’s withdrawal.  As for the price at the pump, it portends a decline, which is not that important to me but may well be to truckers and some impecunious consumers.

*This is ridiculous: for the second time, a federal grand jury has laid charges against former FBI director James Comey (bitter enemies with Trump)—this time over an arrangement of seashells on a North Carolina beach! Here’s the photo as posted by Comey (via Jim Acosta on X):

Excerpts:

James B. Comey, the former F.B.I. director, was indicted on Tuesday over a social media post, signaling a renewed effort by the Justice Department to pursue charges against him after its bid last year ended in failure.

A federal grand jury in North Carolina charged Mr. Comey with making a threat against the president and transmitting a threat across state lines, according to court records.

The case, which centers on an image of seashells that Mr. Comey posted on Instagram, is the latest salvo in the department’s tortured efforts to satisfy the demands of President Trump to go after longtime targets of his wrath. Under the acting attorney general, Todd Blanche, the department has sought to accelerate Mr. Trump’s retribution campaign after the president fired Attorney General Pam Bondi, in part, over his dissatisfaction with her effectiveness in bringing cases against his perceived enemies.

Mr. Comey vowed to fight the case.

“I’m still innocent, I’m still not afraid and I still believe in the independent federal judiciary, so let’s go,” he said in a video statement posted online. Mr. Comey urged Americans to “keep the faith.”

. . .The new Comey charge stems from an incident nearly a year ago, when the former F.B.I. director, vacationing on the North Carolina coast, posted a photograph on social media showing seashells arranged to say “86 47,” combining the slang term “86,” often used to mean dismiss or remove, with an apparent reference to Mr. Trump, the country’s 47th president.

After an uproar ensued over the post, Mr. Comey deleted it, saying that he did not know that it could be seen as having a violent connotation and that he opposed violence of any kind.

Members of the administration, as well as Mr. Trump’s family, declared that the meaning of “86” was to kill, and that the seashell message amounted to a threat to assassinate the president.

According to court records, the case was assigned to Judge Louise W. Flanagan of the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of North Carolina, an appointee of President George W. Bush whose courthouse is in New Bern, N.C.

I simply can’t believe that Comey meant “kill Trump” when he used “8647”.  It’s much more likely that he was simply calling for the removal of the President, or simply dissing him rather then asking someone to assassinate him.  (Some people think Comey was threatening to kill Trump by himself.)  And to make a federal court case out of all this. .  well, it’s ludicrous and a waste of time and money.

*The Supreme Court voted, with the usual 6-3 conservative/liberal split, to prevent Congressional redistricting along racial lines. According to the Wall Street Journal, this lessons “protections for minority voters”:

The Supreme Court on Wednesday sharply restricted states from using race to draw voting districts that help minority communities elect their preferred candidates.

The 6-3 decision, which divided the court along ideological lines, further weakens the Voting Rights Act and could prompt some states to attempt to quickly redraw their congressional maps before this year’s midterm elections, potentially eliminating safe Democratic congressional seats and converting them into districts that lean Republican.

“Allowing race to play any part in government decisionmaking represents a departure from the constitutional rule that applies in almost every other context,” Justice Samuel Alito wrote in the majority opinion.

The case involved the congressional map in Louisiana, which has six seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. The state, prodded by rulings from federal courts, drew two of those six districts to have a majority of Black voters. Voting-rights activists said the majority-Black districts were necessary for the state to comply with the Voting Rights Act, the landmark 1965 law that prohibits racially discriminatory election rules.

But a group of self-described “non-African American” voters sued to challenge the state’s map as an unconstitutional racial gerrymander. They argued that considering race in drawing district lines—even if only to comply with the traditional understanding of the Voting Rights Act—violated the 14th Amendment’s prohibition on race-based discrimination.

Alito and the other conservative justices agreed. In doing so, they adopted a narrow interpretation of the central provision of the Voting Rights Act, known as Section 2.

Section 2, Alito wrote, applies only to state redistricting practices that “intentionally” discriminate against voters on the basis of race. It doesn’t prevent states from pursuing a “partisan advantage” in ways that may also reduce the voting power of large and geographically compact minority communities, he wrote.

What the disadvantage to blacks seems to be is that, by lumping them together with whites, it reduces their power as a group to vote for candidates more suitable to their ethnicity (this would be Representatives, of course, since we’re talking about federal law here). Apparently it’s okay to draw lines that favor parties, but not races. Since the two are somewhat correlated, the Court is drawing a fine line here, and I’m not quite sure why one is okay and the other not.  Lines should, in my view, be drawn just to contain equal numbers of people in each district, and that has been shown to be possible without gerrymandering.

*Trump’s megalomania, which compels him to slap his name or visage on everything, has now gotten his scowling mug on the inside of some (but not all) U.S. passports.

President Trump’s signature is set to be added to U.S. dollars. His name has been affixed to the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts. A plan to mint a 24-karat gold coin with his image is moving forward.

Now there are plans to release a limited-edition U.S. passport bearing the president’s likeness.

The State Department revealed the plans on Tuesday, saying that the new passports would be made available in commemoration of the country’s 250th anniversary this summer. A “limited number of specially designed” passports will be released, according to Tommy Piggott, a spokesman for the State Department. They will be available for any American citizen who applies for one at the Washington Passport Agency when the rollout happens and will continue for as long as inventory lasts, the department said.

Pictures of the proposed design, which Mr. Piggott said will feature “customized artwork and enhanced imagery,” show a serious-looking Mr. Trump above his signature in gold ink.

There will be no additional cost for the Trump-themed passports, the State Department said. It is unclear how many will be produced.

News of the passports was earlier reported by The Bulwark and Fox News.

The passport redesign is the latest example of the president or his allies pushing to put his name, image or signature on institutions in Washington and across the country. This year’s National Parks passes display his face alongside George Washington’s, and some of his administration’s initiatives, such as Trump savings accounts for children and TrumpRx, where Americans can buy prescription drugs directly, are named after him.

Here’s the new passport. It seems that Trump actually likes pictures of himsef scowling; perhaps it projects an image of determination and authority. All I know is that I’m glad my passport doesn’t expire until 2034.

Meanwhile in Dobrzyn, Andrzej and Hili commiserate again:

Hili: Sometimes I have doubts.
Andrzej: It happens to me too.

In Polish:

Hili: Czasem mam wątpliwości.
Ja: Mnie się też to zdarza.

*******************

From Stacy; now why would anyone want to setal that sign? (I know, so you needn’t answer.)

From Things With Faces; a happy beam:

From Funny and Strange Signs:

From Masih; another peaceful Iranian protestor sentenced to death.  Somehow Trump has managed to leave such people out of his rationale for war, though he mentioned them in his initial announcement:

Iran’s Regime Sentences 21-Year-Old Karate Champion to Death for Protesting، Execution Imminent!

So let me get this straight;
Sasan Azadvar goes to a protest… and the regime’s response is not a debate, not reform, but a rope?

He isn’t a criminal. He’s a kid with medals, a… pic.twitter.com/L2Feijr9Md

— Masih Alinejad 🏳️ (@AlinejadMasih) April 29, 2026

From Luana; a bit of protest brewing on my campus. For some reason the size of the “demonstration” is miniscule:

The University of Chicago’s “Popular University” may not have many participants, but its rhetoric is hard to miss.

“Bring 🔻 the Intifada Home” is an obvious riff on the Weather Underground’s “Bring the War Home.” pic.twitter.com/icqDtySP9r

— Stu Smith (@thestustustudio) April 28, 2026

Emma answers a conundrum by saying that she’d sacrifice herself:

Different question that requires over 50% of people to voluntarily self-sacrifice for anyone to survive.

I switch to red – no dependents, not gonna repopulate the world, not about to cure cancer.

This iteration would solve the pension crisis 😉 https://t.co/KBNBJxCyih

— Emma Hilton (@FondOfBeetles) April 29, 2026

The #10 Cat stands up for Jews—sadly, in the face of a new anti-Jewish crime, which is being treated as an act of terrorism.

Attacks on Jewish people on the streets of Britain are attacks on us all. I am so incredibly sorry that these disgusting and horrifying things are happening. https://t.co/b2PJkQtXRN

— Larry the Cat (@Number10cat) April 29, 2026

This seems to be real, not AI, despite an objection on “Community Notes”. But of course one can never tell (Grok says it’s real):

The laws of physics don’t apply to mountain goats. 🐐 pic.twitter.com/8j6FCUs9yX

— Earth_Wanderer (@earth_tracker) April 28, 2026

One I reposted from The Auschwitz Memorial: I didn’t know they had a free monthly online magazine, but it looks, well, very instructional. I read “Children of Block 10” in the issue highlighted below:=

A new edition of “Memoria” – the online monthly magazine of the Auschwitz Memorial.

📖 It is available to read online or download as a PDF:https://t.co/2XRv6mAc22

Inside:
🔹 Nazi Party Membership Files Online
🔹 Children from Block 10
🔹 Auschwitz Museum acquires the original… pic.twitter.com/KiVPkyGaPb

— Auschwitz Memorial (@AuschwitzMuseum) April 30, 2026

Two from Dr. Cobb, heading back to the UK from Chile. First, a painting by Jacob DUCK, a Dutch painter:

Dividing up the spoils of war: Some soldiers. And their dogs. By Jacob Duck, whose day is today.

— Dr. Peter Paul Rubens (@peterpaulrubens.bsky.social) 2026-04-27T16:06:02.652Z

A crab feast:

Not sure what this crab 🦀🦑 is eating, but she's going to town on it. #crustaceans #nature #smallwonders #Maui #marinelife #nokings #love #eat

— Menestune (@menestune.bsky.social) 2026-04-22T06:33:33.194Z