Why Evolution is True is a blog written by Jerry Coyne, centered on evolution and biology but also dealing with diverse topics like politics, culture, and cats.
It’s Friday, March 27, and the twenty-eighth day of Operation Roaring Lion. The global price of oil has reached $109, up 51 percent since the start of the war. Here are the latest developments while you were asleep:
While Trump claims he’s working on a negotiated end to the war, the U.S. is considering deploying up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the Middle East, the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday. The force would likely include infantry and armored vehicles, supplementing the 82nd Airborne Division already in the region, in order to give Trump additional “military options.” Analysts suggest the 82nd Airborne is positioned with Iranian strategic assets—specifically Kharg Island—in mind. It remains unclear where the additional forces would be stationed.
Yesterday, Hezbollah fired over 100 rockets at Israel. Uri Peretz, 43, a father of four from Nahariya, was killed after not making it to a shelter in time. A man in his 50s was seriously wounded, and 13 others were lightly injured by shrapnel.
Sergeant Aviad Elchanan Volansky, 21, from Jerusalem, was killed recently when an anti-tank missile struck a tank belonging to the Golani Brigade’s combat team. Four additional IDF soldiers—two officers and two fighters from Battalion 77—were lightly injured in the attack. Aviad was the cousin of Elhanan Klein, may his memory be a blessing, who was murdered at the start of the war. He was named after his uncle, who was killed in the 2002 terrorist attack in Eli. IDF fatalities during this war have risen to 5.
Naftali Bennett gave his first interview in months last night, attacking Donald Trump’s pardon initiative, the Haredi draft law, and the conduct of the current war. “We’re not winning on any front—not in Gaza, not in Lebanon, and with Iran, we’ll see,” he said. Bennett also used the opportunity to map out his coalition red lines: he will not serve under Netanyahu, will not ally with Ben Gvir, the Arab parties, or the Haredim. He said he would consider Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist party—but only if Smotrich takes a hard line against ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions
. . . and a bit more:
For all the theatricality of the war, the idea of an abrupt ending is surprising—if not a bit disappointing. It seems the Pentagon agrees, if for strategic rather than presentational reasons. According to reports, the Pentagon and U.S. Central Command are developing plans for a “finishing blow” against Iran.
Four main options are reportedly on the table:
Invading or blockading Iran’s oil chokepoint Kharg Island.
Seizing Larak Island, which anchors Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz;
Taking control of Abu Musa and two smaller islands near the strait’s western entrance.
Intercepting Iranian oil tankers on the eastern side of Hormuz.
The military has also prepared plans for ground operations deep inside Iran to seize enriched uranium from nuclear facilities.
After that kind of operation, Trump has options: he can go back into negotiations, dangling new assets, or call an end to the war unilaterally, with something major to show for it.
All of that takes time to prepare—time the global economy doesn’t seem willing to give Trump after his energy ultimatum. If only there were a way to calm the markets—perhaps by letting negotiations drag on and extending the deadline while the military prepares.
I have no idea what Trump’s going to do, since he’s postponed action against Iran’s power and oil infrastructure twice. See next article:
President Donald Trump said Thursday that he would delay attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure by an additional 10 days — extending for a second time his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as he cited progress in negotiations with Tehran.
Talks “are going very well,” Trump wrote in a post on social media.
In the same post, Trump said he was halting further strikes on Iran’s energy assets. Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran last weekend, saying he would “obliterate” the country’s power plants, beginning with the largest, if it did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital conduit for global energy supplies that has been effectively shut by the war. On Monday, Trump issued a new five-day timeline, saying negotiations to end the war had begun.
U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have killed members of the country’s senior leadership and destroyed military infrastructure, but it’s unclear if the attacks have made Tehran more willing to compromise and accept a ceasefire deal with the United States.
Trump’s pursuit of a settlement to the war comes as the conflict approaches the one-month mark and financial markets seem rattled. Stock indexes fell Thursday, as oil prices again rose above $100 a barrel. The S&P 500 lost 1.7 percent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 2.4 percent, ending the day in correction territory — off 10 percent from its recent high. Markets in Asia were down again on Friday, reflecting continuing unease after Trump’s latest announcement.
In a sign of the Trump administration’s deep concern about spiking oil prices, the Treasury Department last week lifted sanctions on 140 million barrels of Iranian oil already at sea.
Again, I’m just waiting stuff out. I have no idea what they’re negotiating for, as Trump’s 15-point “peace plan” and Iran’s demands are very far apart. And remember, these agreements have a way of being breached. For example, Hamas is still in full military control of areas of Gaza not occupied by the IDF. The cease-fire agreement stipulated that Hamas was supposed to lay down its weapons. And I doubt that the Iranian military will.
In an unusual move, two container vessels belonging to China’s state-owned Cosco Shipping were turned back from crossing the Strait of Hormuz on Friday morning, according to ship tracker MarineTraffic and Chinese crew members near the strait.
The two ships—CSCL Indian Ocean and CSCL Arctic Ocean—made U-turns near Larak Island, about 20 miles from the port of Bandar Abbas in southern Iran. In recent days, some ships have transited the strait via the narrow channel between Iran’s Qeshm and Larak islands, including those signaling Chinese owners and crew members.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said Friday that it had turned back three containerships of various nationalities trying to cross the strait, adding that all ship traffic to and from ports of supporters of the U.S. and Israel was prohibited, according to Nour News, which is affiliated with the country’s Supreme National Security Council.
Containership owners told the Journal that the only vessels that can now cross the strait are those with cargoes of Iran-destined household goods, cars, clothing and pharmaceuticals.
In the past week, Iran has allowed four ships loaded with grains to cross the Strait of Hormuz in the other direction, after waiting nearly three weeks in the Gulf of Oman, according to brokers who arranged the cargoes. The bulkers unloaded at Iran’s Bandar Imam Khomeini port, where three-quarters of the cargo handled is grain imports mainly from Russia and South America.
Here’s the WSJ’s figure showing the paths of the two ships as they turned around. The Strait is about 25 miles wide at its narrowest point, with a two-mile-wide shipping lane.
Control of the Strait may well be the dealbreaker for any negotiations going on between the U.S. and Iran, and it is Iran’s trump card. Absent their control of this straits, they might already have been bombed to the point of surrender.
*More administrative narcissism: Trump has decided to sign his name on all American paper currency, the first time a sitting President has had his signature on U.S. bills. This is supposed to be in honor of our 250th anniversary as a country, but we know better than that, don’t we?
The U.S. Treasury Department plans to put President Donald Trump’s signature on all new U.S. paper currency, the agency announced on Thursday.
The move would be a first for a sitting president, since traditionally, U.S. paper currency carries the signatures of the Treasury Secretary and the Treasurer, not the president.
And the plans come in tandem with an ongoing effort to get Trump’s face on a coin, which has also drawn criticism since federal law prohibits the depiction of a living president on U.S. currency.
Earlier this month, a federal arts commission approved the final design for a 24-karat gold commemorative coin bearing Trump’s image to help celebrate America’s 250th birthday on July 4. The vote by the U.S. Commission of Fine Arts, whose members are supporters of the Republican president and were appointed by him earlier this year, was without objection.
Treasury says the plan to include Trump’s signature on all new paper currency is intended to honor the nation’s 250th birthday, and that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s signature would also appear on the currency.
Bessent said in a statement that “there is no more powerful way to recognize the historic achievements of our great country” than with U.S dollar bills bearing Trump’s name.
Michael Bordo, director of the Center for Monetary and Financial History at Rutgers, said the move will undoubtedly come with political pushback, “but I do not know if he has crossed any legal red lines” since the Treasury Secretary may have the authority to decide who signs the currency.
That’s another good reason to avoid using cash (in fact, I don’t think I’ve paid for anything using real money in months). And presumably that signature will disappear when a Democrat gets elected in 2028 (knock on wood). The signature we may well see, which is illegible:
→ Just for a little taste of the streets: You should probably know what is being said in those fun progressive pro-peace protests happening all over the place. Here’s a great example from a protest in Philadelphia this week. A man stands in front of a boisterous crowd: “Until we have done everything in our power to bring the United States to its knees, let us not lose sight of the enemy!” Ok, me too, peace and love,man. He continues: “For every U.S. soldier who comes back in a casket, we cheer!” The crowd cheers.
He also says: “Hamas, Hezbollah, Ansar Allah, all of the resistance forces we celebrate. These popular forces on the ground spend every waking moment in direct confrontation with Zionism and they rely on a strong Iranian state to maintain their fighting capacity.”
It’s just like Woodstock. Just kids swaying, wishing for a better world.
→ And in news of the Jews: A Michigan Democrat campaigning for a U.S. Senate seat opened up about how it was “a risk” for him to condemn the local attack on a synagogue full of small children. But he did it anyway. “It was a risk,” Abdul El-Sayed said. “All of our team was really worried about saying something, but leadership is being willing to say the thing if you believe it to be true that nobody else is going to say.” Which is a nice point about leadership, I guess, but can we go back to that part where everyone was worried about you condemning an attempted mass casualty event on children? To understand how fast the rhetoric has shifted toward mass murder of American Jews, this is what counts as a brave stance now.
You got me. The most atheistic countries in the world are the happiest! But we’ve long known that there’s a negative correlation among countries between religiosity and happiness. The most religious countries are the ones that are the worst off.
→ Kristi Noem’s questionable budget: Remember that anti-border crossing ad Kristi Noem did while heading the Department of Homeland Security? The one that got her in trouble for the big budget? Well, we’ve gotten details. Renting the horses for it cost $20,000. That’s the headline haunting poor Kristi, who just wanted to feel like a real-life cowgirl for a day. What did you want her on, a donkey? She also spent $3,800 on hair and makeup—which, as someone married to a woman who regularly has to dress up—that’s entirely reasonable.
→ Speaking of women on budget journeys: Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez spent nearly $19,000 of campaign funds on a psychiatrist who specializes in ketamine therapy. Caveat: We don’t know who was being treated, and we cannot say it was with ketamine. But let’s imagine for a moment. First of all, aren’t we glad that women are in public office now? Men spend campaign funds on one thing and one thing only: paying off prostitutes. Sometimes it’s paying off people who paid off prostitutes, and probably buying prostitutes. But women with a bucket of campaign funds? Women get creative. Women give us variety. A man never spent 20 grand on horses, or 20 grand on therapists who will give you an IV of horse tranquilizer so you can finally forgive your dad. You know this is just the tip of the iceberg. Botox, special appliances, ecstatic dance lessons. You know it got crazy.
Meanwhile in Dobrzyn, Hili has a bad encounter with the pebbles again:
Andrzej: What are you doing?
Hili: I’m pretending I’m comfortable here.
A tweet from Masih. Put yourself in this Iranian kid’s shoes:
I’m calling on President Steinmeier and Prime Minister Sánchez:
Watch this video. It’s less than a minute. An iranian teenage protester is told he’s charged with “moharebeh.”
He is only 18 and he doesn’t even know what it means. He asks.
See what you’ve been missing in 2D! This Saturday at 2:30 I’ll appear (3rd time) on NYSA Presents, discussing AI & 3D: How AI generates stereo pairs from single 2D images, and whether they’re any good. Show 20260328 – New York Stereoscopic Association https://t.co/DGg15ANLBY
Ha! Au contraire to Jer, I have always used cash. But with the loss of the penny and now the defacing of paper currency with that awful signature, I will likely become a plastic guy…or just stop consuming and fade away…will have to decide.
Yes! I will use a black felt-tip pen to cover the obscene signature. Imagine if a lot of people do this. Millions of bills circulating, in daily use and in full public view, with the dumb a** obliterated.
I never use cash. In fact, a while back, when I was buying something cheap, I found I had left my wallet at home. So I scrambled at the bottom of my purse in hopes of finding some loose coins. When I pulled some out, I was stumped, because I could no longer recognize all the coins by sight. I had to actually read the writing to figure out which of the coins were nickels.
My dear friends in the U.S., you are looking at this whole thing with the bills signed by Trump the wrong way. It actually has consequences. For him.
Because those dollar bills will pass through hundreds of hands. They will get dirty, handled, crumpled, torn, washed, before they are finally officially destroyed by the Fed. Maybe you should keep rubbing these facts in Trump’s face on social media – how badly he is going to be “mistreated”? 😉
Teddy Roosevelt opposed putting “In God We Trust” on money–not because he disagreed with the sentiment (he said that it should be on government documents and public buildings)–but for the reasons RPGNo1 enumerates.
If they are putting the Don’s signature on money for the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence, then they should use John Hancock’s signature instead; he was President of the Continental Congress at the time.
I have just finished reading books on the 1948, six-day, and yom kippur wars and the Golani Brigade features prominently in all. The horror of effective anti-tank rockets became very real in the yom kippur war as a new generation of these weapons was supplied by the Soviet Union to Egypt and Syria. I was amazed at how many soldiers and casualties were related to one another: fathers fighting their second or third war alongside sons fighting their first or cousins or nephews. Very emotional. Very personal. Israel is a small nation.
In Israel, many children like to follow in the parents’ and grandparents’ footsteps when enlisting in the IDF, and there is a great deal of pride in the different service branches and units—especially combat units. Many of these units refer to themselves as “family”, as in “we are a Golani family”.
And yes, we are a small county, and everyone knows everyone else. When a soldier dies, we all grieve. I visit the grave of one of my commanders at least 3 times/year: Before the Jewish New Year, on Memorial Day, and on the anniversary of his death.
Thank you, Starwolf. I teared up in reading your second paragraph. I do not think that most people understand the closeness and commitment of Israelis to their Jewish state…i certainly did not for the vast majority of my life in spite of years of hebrew and religious schools.
I don’t like how the administration is crowing about preparing for a “finishing blow” in Iran, which I’ve been reading about in multiple places. It’s an effort to scare Iranian leadership into submission, but what if the “finishing blow” takes place and doesn’t work? Failure would be a disaster for public opinion because the chattering class would yet again have more ammo to use against the Trump administration continuing the campaign. (“Trump’s war is a failure.”) And failing to follow through on the “finishing blow” would also encourage Iran to continue the fight. It may not seem like much, but announcing that the “finishing blow” is coming is very risky indeed.
Nellie Bowles began this week’s TGIF by mentioning that the University of Southern California cancelled what was going to be a debate by the six leading candidates for governor. Problem? They were all white, and only one was a woman.
I’m not sure what the uninformed students are supposed to do now – refuse to vote in protest of there being no viable black gay trans indigenous female gubernatorial candidate? Maybe one of the six would have come out as something. Now they’ll never know.
It means “combatant” or some-such per Google Translate.
Exactly like when Hitlerites in 1944 Warsaw asked my grandfather “are you a bandit doctor?” he answered “no, I am a doctor.”
The latest panic is that Brent crude has reached $109 a barrel. I am no fonder of higher gas and diesel prices than is anyone else. But let’s put this in perspective. Oil prices steadily increased in the early 2000s with the rise of Chinese and Indian demand, along with other factors. In July 2008, the Europe Brent spot price hit nearly $144 a barrel. That is $214 in today’s dollars. Those prices soon collapsed in the face of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. As economies recovered, prices climbed again, remaining at a nominal price of over $100 for nearly four years of Barack Obama’s presidency. In inflation-adjusted dollars, the average price of a barrel of Brent crude in 2011-2014 was $162, $160, $153, and $138, respectively. A supply glut, aided by the fracking revolution, pulled prices down in Obama’s final years in office.
I know I’m aging, so perhaps the daily drumbeats of oil price doom coming from the NYT in the Obama years may have slipped my memory.
Re the tweet about the University of British Columbia student.
I’m sure the job offers will indeed pour in, as long as he/she doesn’t put his/her demanded they/them pronouns on his/her resumé.
Note that “I use they/them pronouns” is incorrect. “I” never speak of “my”self in the third person. I want other people to validate my idiosyncrasy when talking about me. And “preferred” pronouns is a euphemism. They are “demanded” pronouns. And don’t you forget it!
(In British Columbia they won’t let you forget it: a Human Rights Tribunal could fine you three-quarters of a million dollars if you do, and everywhere in Canada a doctor could lose his licence if a member of the public complained and the doctor refused an order from the regulator to write a suitable apology and promise never to do it again.)
Luana’s post about the interdisciplary studies major would be a lot more funny if not file the fact that he/she/they/them will probably end up as the VP for wokeness at a university or corporation or government department, responsible for being a pain in the distal digestive system to those who do actual work.
Maybe ketamine therapy will knock some sense into the bane of our political system here: AOC ?
Ketamine is a general good for …. well almost anybody to take. You don’t need to be a half witted communista narcissist to get some benefit from it. The price surprises me, though it is very expensive (wildly more expensive in legal than illegal contexts).
Illegal ketamine is typically snorted, on your couch, a park bench, wherever. I’ve done it several times (it’s an intense psychedelic experience). Medical ketamine is administered intravenously in very carefully controlled medical environment, with several professionals monitoring the procedure. I’ve done it several times (it’s an extremely calming, mildly dissociative experience). That’s the source of the price difference, I suspect. I’ll be looking for Miss Ocasio-Cortez snorting up a storm on a park bench somewhere.
Not going to be able to look at that signature on our currency without thinking of, you know, the birthday card to Epstein.
Ha! Au contraire to Jer, I have always used cash. But with the loss of the penny and now the defacing of paper currency with that awful signature, I will likely become a plastic guy…or just stop consuming and fade away…will have to decide.
Fun fact: it is not illegal to ‘redact’ a signature on US currency.
Yes! I will use a black felt-tip pen to cover the obscene signature. Imagine if a lot of people do this. Millions of bills circulating, in daily use and in full public view, with the dumb a** obliterated.
PZ mentioned this, with plans to write PEDO on it.
All of these options are positive acts.
I never use cash. In fact, a while back, when I was buying something cheap, I found I had left my wallet at home. So I scrambled at the bottom of my purse in hopes of finding some loose coins. When I pulled some out, I was stumped, because I could no longer recognize all the coins by sight. I had to actually read the writing to figure out which of the coins were nickels.
My dear friends in the U.S., you are looking at this whole thing with the bills signed by Trump the wrong way. It actually has consequences. For him.
Because those dollar bills will pass through hundreds of hands. They will get dirty, handled, crumpled, torn, washed, before they are finally officially destroyed by the Fed. Maybe you should keep rubbing these facts in Trump’s face on social media – how badly he is going to be “mistreated”? 😉
Teddy Roosevelt opposed putting “In God We Trust” on money–not because he disagreed with the sentiment (he said that it should be on government documents and public buildings)–but for the reasons RPGNo1 enumerates.
If they are putting the Don’s signature on money for the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence, then they should use John Hancock’s signature instead; he was President of the Continental Congress at the time.
I’m no doctor but it looks like he’s flat-lining.
I have just finished reading books on the 1948, six-day, and yom kippur wars and the Golani Brigade features prominently in all. The horror of effective anti-tank rockets became very real in the yom kippur war as a new generation of these weapons was supplied by the Soviet Union to Egypt and Syria. I was amazed at how many soldiers and casualties were related to one another: fathers fighting their second or third war alongside sons fighting their first or cousins or nephews. Very emotional. Very personal. Israel is a small nation.
In Israel, many children like to follow in the parents’ and grandparents’ footsteps when enlisting in the IDF, and there is a great deal of pride in the different service branches and units—especially combat units. Many of these units refer to themselves as “family”, as in “we are a Golani family”.
And yes, we are a small county, and everyone knows everyone else. When a soldier dies, we all grieve. I visit the grave of one of my commanders at least 3 times/year: Before the Jewish New Year, on Memorial Day, and on the anniversary of his death.
Thank you, Starwolf. I teared up in reading your second paragraph. I do not think that most people understand the closeness and commitment of Israelis to their Jewish state…i certainly did not for the vast majority of my life in spite of years of hebrew and religious schools.
That d*g in the Mary Anning statue is exceptionally well done!! The artist has captured its expression perfectly.
Think I will follow the Epstein files and redact Trump’s name from my paper money. There will probably be an increase in black Sharpie pen sales.
I don’t like how the administration is crowing about preparing for a “finishing blow” in Iran, which I’ve been reading about in multiple places. It’s an effort to scare Iranian leadership into submission, but what if the “finishing blow” takes place and doesn’t work? Failure would be a disaster for public opinion because the chattering class would yet again have more ammo to use against the Trump administration continuing the campaign. (“Trump’s war is a failure.”) And failing to follow through on the “finishing blow” would also encourage Iran to continue the fight. It may not seem like much, but announcing that the “finishing blow” is coming is very risky indeed.
Not to worry. Trump never fails….
Nellie Bowles began this week’s TGIF by mentioning that the University of Southern California cancelled what was going to be a debate by the six leading candidates for governor. Problem? They were all white, and only one was a woman.
I’m not sure what the uninformed students are supposed to do now – refuse to vote in protest of there being no viable black gay trans indigenous female gubernatorial candidate? Maybe one of the six would have come out as something. Now they’ll never know.
It means “combatant” or some-such per Google Translate.
Exactly like when Hitlerites in 1944 Warsaw asked my grandfather “are you a bandit doctor?” he answered “no, I am a doctor.”
The latest panic is that Brent crude has reached $109 a barrel. I am no fonder of higher gas and diesel prices than is anyone else. But let’s put this in perspective. Oil prices steadily increased in the early 2000s with the rise of Chinese and Indian demand, along with other factors. In July 2008, the Europe Brent spot price hit nearly $144 a barrel. That is $214 in today’s dollars. Those prices soon collapsed in the face of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. As economies recovered, prices climbed again, remaining at a nominal price of over $100 for nearly four years of Barack Obama’s presidency. In inflation-adjusted dollars, the average price of a barrel of Brent crude in 2011-2014 was $162, $160, $153, and $138, respectively. A supply glut, aided by the fracking revolution, pulled prices down in Obama’s final years in office.
I know I’m aging, so perhaps the daily drumbeats of oil price doom coming from the NYT in the Obama years may have slipped my memory.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/RBRTED.htm
Re the tweet about the University of British Columbia student.
I’m sure the job offers will indeed pour in, as long as he/she doesn’t put his/her demanded they/them pronouns on his/her resumé.
Note that “I use they/them pronouns” is incorrect. “I” never speak of “my”self in the third person. I want other people to validate my idiosyncrasy when talking about me. And “preferred” pronouns is a euphemism. They are “demanded” pronouns. And don’t you forget it!
(In British Columbia they won’t let you forget it: a Human Rights Tribunal could fine you three-quarters of a million dollars if you do, and everywhere in Canada a doctor could lose his licence if a member of the public complained and the doctor refused an order from the regulator to write a suitable apology and promise never to do it again.)
Luana’s post about the interdisciplary studies major would be a lot more funny if not file the fact that he/she/they/them will probably end up as the VP for wokeness at a university or corporation or government department, responsible for being a pain in the distal digestive system to those who do actual work.
This counterexample is darkly funny.
https://www.landfood.ubc.ca/a-white-cis-gender-heterosexual-man-as-associate-dean-edi-in-lfs/
Maybe ketamine therapy will knock some sense into the bane of our political system here: AOC ?
Ketamine is a general good for …. well almost anybody to take. You don’t need to be a half witted communista narcissist to get some benefit from it. The price surprises me, though it is very expensive (wildly more expensive in legal than illegal contexts).
D.A.
NYC
Illegal ketamine is typically snorted, on your couch, a park bench, wherever. I’ve done it several times (it’s an intense psychedelic experience). Medical ketamine is administered intravenously in very carefully controlled medical environment, with several professionals monitoring the procedure. I’ve done it several times (it’s an extremely calming, mildly dissociative experience). That’s the source of the price difference, I suspect. I’ll be looking for Miss Ocasio-Cortez snorting up a storm on a park bench somewhere.