The old Groundhog Day trope is this, “As the tradition goes, if the groundhog sees his shadow, we will have six more weeks of winter. If he doesn’t, an early spring is coming.” The holiday is celebrated on February 2, and over the years the tradition has come to center on Punxsutawney Phil, a groundhog who lives in the eponymous Pennsylvania town.
Every year on February 2, a group of top-hatted men called the “Inner Circle” haul the hapless rodent out of his hibernation, slap him down on a lectern like a pancake, tap him with a cane, and then wait a bit. Then they lift the groundhog into the air and proclaim, via a poem, whether or not he saw his shadow. Here’s this year’s prediction: Phil did see his shadow (so they surmised) so we’re in for a long winter:
Of course the exercise is ludicrous, and Phil’s record of predictions is abysmal: about a 35%-40% accuracy. But I can prove from first principles that this exercise is futile from the get-go.
Here:
To determine if the groundhog sees his shadow there must be
1.) The possibility of a shadow (i.e., the sun must be shining), and
2.) If there is a shadow, the groundhog must have the ability to see it, and we have to know if he did or did not.
But if there is no shadow, as when the weather is overcast like this year, then the groundhog has nothing to see or not see, so he clearly cannot see his shadow whether or not he looks. Thus, if the weather is overcast (as it was this year), you don’t need a damn groundhog: there will be an early spring. (As you see above, he is said to have seen his shadow! Oy!)
If there IS a shadow, then you have to determine whether the groundhog saw it. I doubt that we’re able to do this, as Punxsutawney Phil is not trained to indicate whether or not he saw his own shadow. Thus if it’s sunny, the prediction becomes indeterminate.
Therefore there is only one possible predictive outcome, and that depends solely on whether the weather is sunny or not. The sole prediction is this (here it comes): no shadows possible, therefore an early Spring. That is, of course, bogus as well.
You could diagram this with a decision tree, but I think my logic here is impeccable given our inability to detect qualia in groundhogs. And this indicates why Phil’s bogus “predictions”, based on what the top-hatted men say, have been so inaccurate.
Right on — I guess the other question would be — given how on-edge groundhogs I’ve seen can be — did the groundhog simply see a shadow of a predator, or just didn’t want to bother finding out the hard way?
🕳️
I wasn’t sure how this worked.
If I could invent Groundhog Day, the rule would be that if there was a shadow (if the day was sunny), then the animal of course would see it and that would fore-tell something about when winter would end. If there was no shadow (if the day was cloudy), then the animal of course would not see it and that would predict a different course for winter.
How do you force a groundhog to look at his own shadow? How would you know if he SAW his shadow?
This reminds me of the Drake Equation as applied to the important question of Phil’s cognition: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation.
Phil is just a glorified squirrel. Even if his eyes and brain registered the change of light intensity produced by putting his body between himself and the sun, would that mean that he saw his shadow? Or would we require more, specifically, that he—Phil—actually knew that he was perceiving his shadow? Is he really seeing or is he simply seeing, and would the latter still count?
We may need to add more terms to the equation, which I hereby propose be called forevermore the Coyne-Phil Conjecture.
Groundhog Day is one of those enduring mysteries when all you have to do is see if it’s sunny or not to fulfill the myth. It seems Phil is superfluous, but he sure is cute. I like that we still do these kinds of things. Like the Calaveras County Fair and Frog Jumping Jubilee. A ridiculous bit of fun.
I believe the reasons for the spectacle are the following:
(a) Raise tourism revenue for the Punxsutawney region in the depth of Winter.
(b) Single-handedly prop up the US top-hat industry (as The Daily Show observed recently).
(c) For locals and guests to get up before dawn and party in the cold, thus having an excuse to get hammered before the day starts for good.(*) 🙂
(*) The rules disallow alcohol but evidently do not deter determined party-goers from imbibing on the sly before, during, and after the event.
Ok, since the repeating day in the movie lasted for almost 34 years, and the movie was released in 1993, Phil HAD to see his shadow in 2026, since he saw it in the movie! Only next year will it be a crapshoot.
PS If it hadn’t been for a great movie, who would care?
I’m sure I’ve read this post before…