Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow

February 2, 2026 • 9:00 am

Over in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, they dragged out a groggy groundhog (Marmota monax), Punxsutawney Phil, from his wooden-box den, and determined whether he could see his shadow.

He did, and that means that we have six more weeks of winter weather to come.  Is that any surprise?

Below is a short video in which Phil is forced to look at a piece of paper. Who knows if he actually saw his shadown, but the top-hatted flacks, members of the so-called “Inner Circle” who interpret Phil’s predictions, did.

But looking at Phil’s history, the rodent is not accurate at predicting the long-term weather:

The Inner Circle claims a 100% accuracy rate, and an approximately 80% accuracy rate in recorded predictions. If a prediction is wrong, they claim that the person in charge of translating the message must have made a mistake in their interpretation. Empirical estimates place the groundhog’s accuracy between 35% and 41%.

So it goes.  It’s a groundhog, for crying out loud, not a weatherman. And the Inner Circle is a religion. . . .

 

8 thoughts on “Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow”

  1. The groundhog must be in a dazed state, being roused from (I assume) hibernation.

    Otherwise, I’d imagine it’d give those guys a good thrashing in an escape. Groundhogs can move.

    🎩
    🕳️

  2. ” If a prediction is wrong, they claim that the person in charge of translating the message must have made a mistake in their interpretation.”

    Sounds like people who predict events for living.

  3. Marmot said there’ll be days like this
    There’ll be days like this my marmot said
    Marmot said! Marmot said!

    Apologies to Luther Dixon, Willie Denson, and The Shirelles

  4. You bet there’ll be days like this–or one great one–and over and over and over . . . R.I.P. Harold Ramis.

  5. We actually used the groundhog’s predictions in a workshop on critical thinking at the National Science Teaching Association conference in Minneapolis several years ago. Phil was below a random flip of the coin and the difference was statistically significant. PLUS: of all the local groundhogs in North America that are trotted out on this day, we noticed that there was no consensus on “meteorologic” spring (predicated on changes in temperature, precipitation, etc.). Whole situation reminds one of this warning back in 2021: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/fsxo3rcdtl6mobu15q5zj/Groundhog_Day_Late_night.mp4?rlkey=apyw0invghmx2wg6iagehc22y&st=nx26oetk&dl=0
    Turns out this old English rhyme is just as good as the animal prognosticator:
    If Candlemas be fair and bright,
    Winter has another flight.
    If Candlemas brings clouds and rain,
    Winter will not come again.
    (Candlemas is Feb 2; https://www.bbc.co.uk/religion/religions/christianity/holydays/candlemas.shtml)
    From 1988–2011, Phil got it right 11 times, the rhyme got it right 13 times, and Jimmy (Sun Prairie WI, groundhog) got it right 15 times!

    1. Kind Sir, I appreciate your Punxsutawney Phil critical thinking-related post.

      May I congenially, respectfully and sincerely invite your attention to the below NSTA position on the bimodality of biological sex as it relates to critical thinking?

      AI tells me:

      “The National Science Teaching Association (NSTA) advocates for inclusive, contemporary biology education that moves beyond a strict binary view, recognizing that biological sex (including genetics and anatomy) can exist on a spectrum, particularly when acknowledging intersex variations. This position, finalized in 2019, emphasizes that modern, gender-inclusive biology education should focus on diversity, rather than just strict binary, to better reflect scientific understanding of variation . . . aiming to align with current, research-informed understandings of biology.”

      Also: “While based on scientific research and the need for inclusive pedagogy, the statement is adopted by the NSTA board, rather than a direct, simple vote of the entire membership.”

      I contemplate what the undisclosed thoughts of the membership are compared to those of the board.

  6. As someone who grew up in Pennsylvania on the outskirts of Penna Dutch country where this tradition comes from, I can tell you that I never even heard of Punxsutawney Phil until college. Just about everybody I knew, even in elementary school, treated it as silly but fun tradition, based more on looking in your own backyard. It’s weird the way Punxsutawney has turned themselves into the “official” Groundhog Day prognosticators.

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