Why Evolution is True is a blog written by Jerry Coyne, centered on evolution and biology but also dealing with diverse topics like politics, culture, and cats.
Welcome to CaturSaturday, June 21, 2025: the first full day of summer and shabbos for Jewish cats. It’s also World Giraffe Day. Here’s a photo of three crossing the road (to get to the other side); I took these photos last August in at the Manyeleti Game Reserve in South Africa:
Readers are welcome to mark notable events, births, or deaths on this day by consulting the June 21 Wikipedia page.
As I am leaving for NYC tomorrow early and not returning until Thursday, posting will be very light for that period. I will, however, put up Hili dialogues with a photo (Andrzej says he has four more ready to go.)
Iran sent a barrage of missiles into Israel on Friday that struck in several places, according to Israeli broadcasters and the country’s main emergency service. Two people were severely injured in the northern city of Haifa, the service’s director said in a television interview, and broadcast footage showed debris near one of the impact sites in central Haifa.
Both sides traded fire even as European ministers were meeting with Iran’s top diplomat in Switzerland to try to cool the week-old conflict. Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, said Tehran was not interested in negotiating an end to the war until Israel stopped its attacks.
A day after President Trump said he would put off a decision on whether to join Israel’s attacks for two weeks to give diplomacy a chance, Mr. Araghchi said in an interview with the Iranian state broadcaster IRIB that “we have clearly said that there is no room for talking until this aggression stops.”
Earlier, Israel announced overnight strikes on missile factories and a research center linked to Iran’s nuclear program. The country’s defense minister, Israel Katz, said he had ordered the Israeli military to increase its attacks on Iranian government targets to “destabilize the regime,” deter it from firing at Israel and displace the population of Tehran.
The Iranian missile barrage on Friday wounded at least 17 people, three of them seriously, according to Magen David Adom, Israel’s main emergency service. The Israeli fire and rescue service said it had dispatched teams to seven places in southern Israel where it had received reports that missiles or missile fragments had fallen.
From the Times of Israel:
US President Donald Trump will decide whether or not to join Israel’s air campaign against Iran’s nuclear facilities within the next two weeks as he awaits the outcome of diplomatic efforts between Tehran and Washington, the White House said Thursday.
The announcement, read aloud by Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, appeared to signal the administration’s latest U-turn over the question of whether to commit American forces believed vital to destroying Iran’s most hardened nuclear sites, after a week that saw him vacillate sharply between support for a peaceful solution and a threat to kill Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
On Wednesday, he said nobody knew what he would do.
“Based on the fact that there is a chance for substantial negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future — I will make my decision on whether or not to go within the next two weeks,” Leavitt said at a White House press briefing.
She confirmed that negotiations were continuing to take place between the US and Iran on the nuclear issue despite Israel’s offensive, after a Reuters report revealed that Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff had held a number of phone calls with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
I should add that Iran has a near-complete internet blackout and hence people have no way of knowing what’s going on in the rest of the world, much how their friends and relatives are doing.
Nobody knows what Trump is going to decide, for he’s notoriously mercurial. Israel probably won’t wait two weeks to see if he decides to send B2 bombers and bunker-busters to Israel, but will likely keep chipping away at the nuclear sites. But I don’t believe for a minute that any negotiated settlement will end the problem of Iran’s developing nukes, nor keep it from urging its proxies to attack Israel. As Gideon Saaar, Israel’s foreign minister said, “I don’t trust their intentions. I don’t trust their honesty.”
Since last week, wave upon wave of Israeli warplanes has hit targets across Iran—testing the limits of what air power alone can achieve in conflict.
Conventional wisdom among military thinkers has long been that missiles and bombs, while essential to modern warfare, are seldom enough to achieve victory on their own, especially if the strategic aims of the warring states are expansive.
In this case, Israel has said its goal is to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, by physically destroying its ability to do so or by coercing Iran to give up its atomic ambitions in some kind of negotiated settlement. Israeli politicians have also called for the ouster of Tehran’s theocratic regime.
. . .Israeli policymakers appear to be counting on the ability of air power to win the day without ground operations, perhaps aside from small deployments of special-forces soldiers and intelligence officers assisting airstrikes.
For Israel, there is little choice. It lacks the wherewithal to mount large-scale ground operations far from its borders and against a vastly bigger adversary. The U.S. has the capacity, but the Trump administration has signaled great reluctance to put boots on the ground in any foreign war.
If Israel succeeds, with or without U.S. help, it could prompt a serious reassessment of the capabilities of modern air power, its effectiveness augmented by unmanned aircraft and more sophisticated surveillance and intelligence-gathering technologies. But skeptics abound.
There are few if any precedents for a large-scale armed conflict in which two states exchanged blows via air power alone.
This approach, with no ground forces, “certainly changes the course of any war—you cannot physically seize things, you can only physically destroy,” said Phillips O’Brien, a military historian who teaches war studies at St. Andrews University in Scotland.
Both sides have to look at the enemy country as a functioning machine and identify components, such as military production or command and control, whose destruction can lead to a win. “That’s never easy—which is why there are so few” purely aerial wars, O’Brien said.
All I can say is “We shall see. . . we shall see.” If the U.S. gets involved with its big bombers and bunker busters, the chances of Israel winning are of course raised. But what does “winning” mean? Does the theocracy topple—something that many of us wish? Or does Iran just agree to stop its nuclear-weapons program with verification and inspection? I would not count that as a victory, not only because of the lack of regime change, but because Iran would still be fomenting its proxies to attack Israel.
A federal appeals court in San Francisco said Thursday that President Donald Trump can keep the California National Guard in Los Angeles for now, delivering a win for the president as he aims to use the military to police protests against his deportation efforts.
The unanimous decision from the three-judge panel on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit — two of whom were appointed by Trump in his first term and the third appointed by President Joe Biden — said that Trump appears to have lawfully deployed the National Guard in the city, even though he did not consult California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D).
On social media, Trump hailed the decision as a “BIG WIN” and suggested that it would open the door for similar deployments across the United States if he determines that local law enforcement is “unable, for whatever reason, to get the job done.”
In Thursday’s decision, the appeals court judges disagreed with the federal government’s stance that Trump’s authority to deploy the National Guard could not be scrutinized by the courts.
But the judges also rejected California’s legal argument that a federal statute clearly requires a governor to be consulted before the deployment — rather than just having the president route the deployment command through the governor.
In the end, the court ruled that the president showed that he had at least some reason to believe that protesters interfered with federal law enforcement’s ability to carry out their deportation-related duties and that deploying the National Guard was necessary.
I have no dog in this fight and I don’t have any strong feelings about this decision. The law is the law, and if California doesn’t like this decision they can appeal it to the Supreme Court. I have no idea whether the presence of the National Guard in L.A. (where the rioting seems to be diminishing) is salutary.
*As usual, I’ll steal a few items from Nellie Bowles’s weekly news/snark column at the Free Press (Nellie is back!). This week’s column is called “TGIF: Monitoring the situation” (archived here).
→ Obsessed with J.D. Vance trolling Bluesky and immediately getting suspended: Vice President J.D. Vance joined Bluesky, the alternative to X/Twitter that took off as a leftist hub after Musk arrived. Bluesky has become a holding pen for all the most obnoxious voices of the 2010s, “a containment dome,” and they’re really all in there still yelling at each other, day in and day out. I check in sometimes, because I appreciate seeing onetime media stars in there (all my former colleagues) biting each others’ ankles. J.D. posted a trolling message, saying: “I’ve been told this app has become the place to go for common sense political discussion and analysis. So I’m thrilled to be here to engage with all of you,” and promptly delved into a discussion about gender-affirming care for minors, as I do at every dinner party I attend. Within 12 minutes, his account was suspended. Remember when these people ran all of public discourse? I’m not saying the new regime that blasts me snuff films and racist memes is better, per se. I’m just saying, it was well played. Embarrassed by doing exactly what we all expected them to do, the hall monitors of Bluesky reinstated J.D.’s account.
Also on Bluesky, Harvard Law instructor Alejandra Caraballo posted a nice rant about her belief in the American project: “I honestly don’t care anymore if this country destroys itself and burns down to the ground. The current form of the United States is incompatible with democracy or human rights. It no longer has any a [sic] legitimacy to govern and I’ll dance on its grave. Let something better rise from the ashes.” That tuition is $82,560 a year, baby! The privilege of being told death to America over and over is not cheap.
→ The male brain: A new study out of France shows that while girls outperform boys in most school subjects, they lag in math, as if we needed a study to prove this. Please. Observe any women trying to calculate a tip. We know who is better at math. And this is a problem! We will be happy only when boys perform worse than girls in all subjects. Equality is when one group (the boy group) is doing worse on every metric.
→ Stop beating up Caitlin Clark: During a game against the Connecticut Sun, WNBA star Caitlin Clark was struck in the face, then shoved to the ground. It was pretty brutal. I actually don’t think the racial dynamics are what’s at play with the Caitlin Clark hazing, as many have suggested. I think it’s female dynamics. Women do not like vast differences between each other (women want “status equity,” as the social scientists say). So because Caitlin Clark is single-handedly boosting ratings and interest in women’s basketball, she is a threat. We are like crabs pulling ourselves back into the pot of crappy WNBA ratings. Which is why I have to tell you: Do not read Suzy’s culture column. Don’t do it. She’s too funny, too adorable, too redheaded, and it makes me uncomfortable. People ask me what I’m most afraid of. The answer is Suzy’s column. And if it comes to it, I will shove her.
An Australian moth follows the stars during its yearly migration, using the night sky as a guiding compass, according to a new study.
When temperatures heat up, nocturnal Bogong moths fly about 620 miles (1,000 kilometers) to cool down in caves by the Australian Alps. They later return home to breed and die.
Birds routinely navigate by starlight, but the moths are the first known invertebrates, or creatures without a backbone, to find their way across such long distances using the stars.
Scientists have long wondered how the moths travel to a place they’ve never been. A previous study hinted that Earth’s magnetic field might help steer them in the right direction, along with some kind of visual landmark as a guide.
Since stars appear in predictable patterns each night, scientists suspected they might help lead the way. They placed moths in a flight simulator that mimicked the night sky above them and blocked out the Earth’s magnetic field, noting where they flew. Then they scrambled the stars and saw how the moths reacted.
When the stars were as they should be, the moths flapped in the right direction. But when the stars were in random places, the moths were disoriented. Their brain cells also got excited in response to specific orientations of the night sky.
The findings were published Wednesday in the journal Nature.
I found the paper; click on the title to read it for free. Note that these moths have an annual migration of up to 1,000 km to the north to escape the heat—and then they migrate back again. They have never made either leg of the migration before, so the directions must somehow be coded in their neurons.
Meanwhile in Dobrzyn, Hili is wondering if she’d thrive on Noah’s Ark:
Hili: Was there only one pair of mice on Noah’s Ark?
Andrzej: It’s just a theory.
In Polish:
Hili: Czy na Arce Noego była tylko jedna para myszy? Ja: To tylko teoria.
A good video from Zach Elliott on how to protect women in sports (7.3 minutes, worth watching!). It’s a simple PCR test for the SRY gene, and is almost 100% accurate. Note that it uses a DNA sequence, not just the presence or absence of a Y chromosome.
.@Simone_Biles needs to watch our animated video on how sex screening in sports would work to protect female competition.
Saturday is often a quiet morning, so I will offer a few thoughts:
Thanks to Hili and Andrzej for our continuing morning philosophy.
Love the giraffe at sunset photo.
I know much of Nellie is tongue in cheek, but these behaviors are simply examples of pro basketball thuggery allowed and, perhaps even promoted, by the leagues and their officials because it appears that they apparently build audiences as opposed to protecting players in a civilized athletic competition. I feel so sorry for Caitlin Clark but also worry about the health and safety of all players.
Have a good panel and week at Heterodox Conference. Program looks great.
I have no idea on the matter, but someone had written that there is a lot of jealousy that she has so much fan attention while not being as good as other players.
But still, officials could control the physical attacks by enforcing rules including removal from game and league through significant punishments such as suspension without pay for miscreants.
I was surprised to learn that not much happened, but now there is discussion about stricter enforcement of fair play rules.
One of my friends thinks that this happens to every player, but Clark gets the attention because she’s white and good-looking, and bashing a good-looking white player is considered more heinous than bashing a good-looking black player. I hadn’t thought of that, and there may be some truth in it. That is, she doesn’t get bashed more than anyone else, but when she does it gets more press.
I have no dog in that fight, but it’s worth considering.
I certainly don’t intend any shade to Caitlin Clark, but there are quite a few white women in the WNBA who are much more stereotypically pretty than she is, such as the teammate who came to her defense, Sophie Cunningham.
This tends me toward the belief that the reason there is so much outrage on Clark’s behalf is more because she really has been the target of an outsized amount of undeserved aggression from other players than because she is white or particularly pretty.
Nobody should be bashed in basketball! If people want bashing, they should sign up for mixed martial arts or boxing or the like.
My comment: Sophie, Sophie, Sophie! Sophie, Sophie, Sophie!
That is Indiana Fever teammate of Caitlin Clark, Sophie Cunningham, who meted out some well-deserved punishment, with only 46 seconds remaining on the clock,when the referees hadn’t. Sophie’s team jersey sold out overnight (after the game had ended). If I had some extra $90, I would have ordered one as well. At the next home game of the Fever, Sophie should get a thunderous welcome.
Love the moth study – wow!
“[H]e’s notoriously mercurial” is perhaps the most charitable description of 45 2.0 I’ve ever read.
(Although I refuse to stoop to maga’s level to call a president names, I also don’t like to use 45 2.0’s real name, just as I never refer to John Lennon’s assassin by his given name.)
I’m sorry if I was not hard enough on Trump for you, but I think the word is appropriate.
Agree. I was going to post something along those lines, but you beat me to it.
I knew that when Jerry called Trump mercurial, he meant that Trump “is subject to sudden or unpredictable changes of mind” – which is actually a perfect description of the man’s frighteningly impulsive and irrational decision-making style.
But there’s another definition for “mercurial,” which is the one you were probably thinking of: “Lively ; clever ; sprightly ; animated ; quick-witted”. I’d be puzzled too I thought that someone sincerely thought Trump is clever or quick-witted, not to mention “sprightly”!
The question of whether air power can win a war is really a political question. Britain and the U.S. bombed Germany for years before the ground war coming to Berlin drove Hitler to suicide. It’s a question of the will of the leadership. If Lincoln had been a different President, the Civil War could have ended at any time with a decision to just let the southern State’s go. The Iranian leadership seems pretty fanatical, so I am guessing that forcing serious concessions from them with airpower alone won’t happen (except in the unlikely event that the people revolt, and, of course, then it wouldn’t be a victory through airpower alone). Air power could destroy Iran’s nuclear program. I think that if Israel is after more, then they will be disappointed. It would be hard on the Iranian people, but if Israel destroyed Iran’s oil infrastructure, that would help dry up money for proxy terrorist groups.
Air power could destroy Iran’s nuclear program. For now. But then one must commit to keeping it destroyed. That is the more difficult task.
I lean toward proceeding with military action given the fanatical, uncompromising, and apocalyptic strains running through Iranian leadership. But we would all do well to heed warnings such as those that Lou Jost has posted here. The unintended consequences could be lasting and far reaching.
And, remember, that an adversary does not need subs, bombers, or ballistic missiles to detonate a nuclear weapon in NYC, Washington DC, or Tel Aviv. That fact can, of course, cut either way in the policy debate. There are no easy answers, despite what blowhard politicians might say on TV.
New Shepard (Bezos) tourist flight to von karman line this morning just postponed for today at t-10 minutes due to continuing high winds at launch/landing site in Texas. I am glad they put safety before schedule! Will announce new launch date/time later.
I am very concerned about Israel’s stated intention to displace the population of Tehran. Apparently they are not simply trying to target nuclear weapon production. This is looking more and more like an actual offensive war. Not a great way to try to win the hearts and minds of Iranians. This will only further radicalize and militarize the Iranian government.
Of course it’s an offensive war, Lou. What other kind of war is there? Iran is attacking Tel Aviv. Israel has to go on the offensive to destroy Iran’s war-making ability. She can’t just sit there huddled under the Iron Dome (and its successors) and hope it outlasts Iran’s efforts to overwhelm and degrade it. (Whether de-housing the people of Tehran will be militarily effective is another question. It’s too easy to look at RAF Bomber Command’s efforts and say No.)
It seems pretty clear that Israel’s attack last week started the current phase of direct fighting, and in that sense Israel is on the offensive. Of course Iran’s proxies have certainly been responsible for the unprovoked Oct 7 attack and others, so Israel could perhaps claim that their offense was in fact a defensive war.
For the most part, as far as I know, Iran itself was not shooting missiles at Israel until Israel’s attacks. During the aftermath of Israel’s earlier attacks, most observers thought Iran’s counter-attacks were restrained and measured. Whether that was on purpose or due to technological limitations, I don’t know. But both sides quickly de-escalated. What is happening now is different. I am shocked that the Israeli government actually said that they wanted to displace the people in Iran’s largest (and most progressive) city.
And this will probably solidify Iranians’ support for their military and for extremist Israel-hating governments. Progressives will be marginalized, as history shows when a country is under attack. I don’t know what the solution is, but this is not it.
Will go now, following Da Roolz.
For what it is worth, when it comes to the Middle East, there is no one on the topic that I trust more than Daniel Pipes. He stated in an interview published today
“Iranians in the great majority, perhaps 85 percent, despise their Islamist government, so Islamism will be gone. But deleting an ideology does not assure a path to democracy; will Iran follow more the Ukrainian or the Russian model? The legacy of totalitarian rule makes it difficult to return to normal life, so I am pessimistic. That said, getting rid of tyranny matters most; just as in post-Saddam Hussein Iraq, better anarchy than Khamene’i.”
For the most part, as far as I know, Iran itself was not shooting missiles at Israel until Israel’s attacks.
But its proxy, Hamas, was.
..And Hezb and the Houthis and Shia groups in Iraq. NONE of these could come close to their “achievements” without Iranian assistance, help, money, weapons, etc. The Houthis aren’t hi-tech producers but I hear their caves are cool in the hot Yemeni sun. haha
And ….being behind/financing, providing tech expertise in blowing up the US Emb, Beirut, the Marines also in Beirut, French camp (ditto)….and Argentinian synagogue… there is such a long list and blood trail leading back to Tehran. Some hijacks in the 80s of planes (TWA comes to mind). These tumble out of my memory just sitting here.. off the top of my head.
Chants of “Death to America” and Israel, a “countdown clock” in Palestine Square, Tehran, for the hopeful destruction of Israel in 2040. Sponsoring assassinations in the US, Lebanon and Europe. Western hostages, Lebanon.
So….. we can tell pro-Iranian fools out there (presumably the Pro-Pal activists’ next maneuver):
Who has the jump in this latest fracas is utterly irrelevant when you pull the camera back and take in the last 45 years. The Islamic Republic is the most malignant, aggressive and murderous organization of modern times.
D.A.
NYC
I’m glad to see Hili’s humor and her interest in mice.
That leaf mimic is amazing. How the functioning organs work in the flat leaf amazes me. I see the legs but no real body except the leaf part.
Israel needs to continue its work dismantling Iran’s nuclear capability. Diplomacy doesn’t just involve sitting down and talking. Force (or the threat of force) is needed to nudge the parties in their negotiations. The two work hand in hand.
Iran’s demand that Israel stop its offensive before agreeing to negotiations is, I hope, a non-starter. Israel’s use of force is a prerequisite to negotiations, and it needs to continue even during negotiations—keeping the pressure on the Iranian leadership. The Iranian leadership is trying to stop the bombing in order to save itself and to save its nuclear ambitions. Israel cannot allow the latter.
Agreed. I don’t know how to describe it well, but with regard to international relations, including disputes, the work of a nations’ leaders is not like how neighbors interact over the back yard fence. To paraphrase from various leaders about interactions: ‘There are no enemies, and no friends, only interests’.
Frankly I think Israel had reasons to go postal on Iran’s military infrastructure years and years ago in response to the #$% proxy wars that Irans’ leadership openly supplies and encourages.
(I wrote this yesterday, before we bombed Fordow, but then somehow didn’t send it. Things can change rapidly!)
The service I follow about Ukraine, Reporting from Ukraine, has recently started limited coverage of Iran. Basically anything that hurts Iran helps Ukraine.
In their most recent post, they’re saying that Iran has been effectively cancelled. Of 450+ missiles that Iran launched against Israel in the first five days of the engagement (not sure what day this is), 200 were launched on the first day, decaying down to 30 in the last. As new launch sites are activated, they are taken out.
Seems to me that in this scenario, Israel & friends have the luxury to largely sit back, wait for regime collapse, and see what develops from that.
Today being National Smoothie Day reminds me of a joke that goes:
Knowledge is knowing that a tomato is a fruit. Wisdom is realizing that it’s not good to put a tomato into a fruit salad. Philosophy is wondering if ketchup is a smoothie.
The French math study found the gender gap “affects children from all socio-economic groups, in all regions of France, and in all types of school.” The gap became evident near the end of the first year of school.
The researchers attribute this gap to social factors such as girls’ anxiety about math, stereotypes, and parental expectations. However, it’s challenging to believe that these forces are uniformly present in every French school. Perhaps, instead, the underlying factor influencing every school is an innate genetic predisposition for math in boys, which manifests only towards the end of the first school year. Is this a plausible explanation? Does the evidence not equally support that conclusion?
Did you see PBS Newshour tonight?
First guest was a defender of the Islamic Republic. Unbelievable.
And then a celebration of Colombia U. Algerian terrorist Khalil NOT deported.
Well let’s open the champaign – we don’t have nearly enough terrorist rabble rousers here – we have to import them and keep them here when they break the law (according to a NJ for some reason judge). Top notch.
Maybe we should defund these PBS bastards? I thought my tax dollars went towards promoting American values rather than destroying my country and democracy. Silly me.
D.A.
NYC
(not a conservative. Former volunteer for Hillary’s campaign a decade ago)
Saturday is often a quiet morning, so I will offer a few thoughts:
Thanks to Hili and Andrzej for our continuing morning philosophy.
Love the giraffe at sunset photo.
I know much of Nellie is tongue in cheek, but these behaviors are simply examples of pro basketball thuggery allowed and, perhaps even promoted, by the leagues and their officials because it appears that they apparently build audiences as opposed to protecting players in a civilized athletic competition. I feel so sorry for Caitlin Clark but also worry about the health and safety of all players.
Have a good panel and week at Heterodox Conference. Program looks great.
I have no idea on the matter, but someone had written that there is a lot of jealousy that she has so much fan attention while not being as good as other players.
But still, officials could control the physical attacks by enforcing rules including removal from game and league through significant punishments such as suspension without pay for miscreants.
I was surprised to learn that not much happened, but now there is discussion about stricter enforcement of fair play rules.
One of my friends thinks that this happens to every player, but Clark gets the attention because she’s white and good-looking, and bashing a good-looking white player is considered more heinous than bashing a good-looking black player. I hadn’t thought of that, and there may be some truth in it. That is, she doesn’t get bashed more than anyone else, but when she does it gets more press.
I have no dog in that fight, but it’s worth considering.
I certainly don’t intend any shade to Caitlin Clark, but there are quite a few white women in the WNBA who are much more stereotypically pretty than she is, such as the teammate who came to her defense, Sophie Cunningham.
This tends me toward the belief that the reason there is so much outrage on Clark’s behalf is more because she really has been the target of an outsized amount of undeserved aggression from other players than because she is white or particularly pretty.
Nobody should be bashed in basketball! If people want bashing, they should sign up for mixed martial arts or boxing or the like.
My comment: Sophie, Sophie, Sophie! Sophie, Sophie, Sophie!
That is Indiana Fever teammate of Caitlin Clark, Sophie Cunningham, who meted out some well-deserved punishment, with only 46 seconds remaining on the clock,when the referees hadn’t. Sophie’s team jersey sold out overnight (after the game had ended). If I had some extra $90, I would have ordered one as well. At the next home game of the Fever, Sophie should get a thunderous welcome.
Love the moth study – wow!
“[H]e’s notoriously mercurial” is perhaps the most charitable description of 45 2.0 I’ve ever read.
(Although I refuse to stoop to maga’s level to call a president names, I also don’t like to use 45 2.0’s real name, just as I never refer to John Lennon’s assassin by his given name.)
I’m sorry if I was not hard enough on Trump for you, but I think the word is appropriate.
Agree. I was going to post something along those lines, but you beat me to it.
I knew that when Jerry called Trump mercurial, he meant that Trump “is subject to sudden or unpredictable changes of mind” – which is actually a perfect description of the man’s frighteningly impulsive and irrational decision-making style.
But there’s another definition for “mercurial,” which is the one you were probably thinking of: “Lively ; clever ; sprightly ; animated ; quick-witted”. I’d be puzzled too I thought that someone sincerely thought Trump is clever or quick-witted, not to mention “sprightly”!
The question of whether air power can win a war is really a political question. Britain and the U.S. bombed Germany for years before the ground war coming to Berlin drove Hitler to suicide. It’s a question of the will of the leadership. If Lincoln had been a different President, the Civil War could have ended at any time with a decision to just let the southern State’s go. The Iranian leadership seems pretty fanatical, so I am guessing that forcing serious concessions from them with airpower alone won’t happen (except in the unlikely event that the people revolt, and, of course, then it wouldn’t be a victory through airpower alone). Air power could destroy Iran’s nuclear program. I think that if Israel is after more, then they will be disappointed. It would be hard on the Iranian people, but if Israel destroyed Iran’s oil infrastructure, that would help dry up money for proxy terrorist groups.
Air power could destroy Iran’s nuclear program. For now. But then one must commit to keeping it destroyed. That is the more difficult task.
I lean toward proceeding with military action given the fanatical, uncompromising, and apocalyptic strains running through Iranian leadership. But we would all do well to heed warnings such as those that Lou Jost has posted here. The unintended consequences could be lasting and far reaching.
And, remember, that an adversary does not need subs, bombers, or ballistic missiles to detonate a nuclear weapon in NYC, Washington DC, or Tel Aviv. That fact can, of course, cut either way in the policy debate. There are no easy answers, despite what blowhard politicians might say on TV.
New Shepard (Bezos) tourist flight to von karman line this morning just postponed for today at t-10 minutes due to continuing high winds at launch/landing site in Texas. I am glad they put safety before schedule! Will announce new launch date/time later.
I am very concerned about Israel’s stated intention to displace the population of Tehran. Apparently they are not simply trying to target nuclear weapon production. This is looking more and more like an actual offensive war. Not a great way to try to win the hearts and minds of Iranians. This will only further radicalize and militarize the Iranian government.
Of course it’s an offensive war, Lou. What other kind of war is there? Iran is attacking Tel Aviv. Israel has to go on the offensive to destroy Iran’s war-making ability. She can’t just sit there huddled under the Iron Dome (and its successors) and hope it outlasts Iran’s efforts to overwhelm and degrade it. (Whether de-housing the people of Tehran will be militarily effective is another question. It’s too easy to look at RAF Bomber Command’s efforts and say No.)
It seems pretty clear that Israel’s attack last week started the current phase of direct fighting, and in that sense Israel is on the offensive. Of course Iran’s proxies have certainly been responsible for the unprovoked Oct 7 attack and others, so Israel could perhaps claim that their offense was in fact a defensive war.
For the most part, as far as I know, Iran itself was not shooting missiles at Israel until Israel’s attacks. During the aftermath of Israel’s earlier attacks, most observers thought Iran’s counter-attacks were restrained and measured. Whether that was on purpose or due to technological limitations, I don’t know. But both sides quickly de-escalated. What is happening now is different. I am shocked that the Israeli government actually said that they wanted to displace the people in Iran’s largest (and most progressive) city.
And this will probably solidify Iranians’ support for their military and for extremist Israel-hating governments. Progressives will be marginalized, as history shows when a country is under attack. I don’t know what the solution is, but this is not it.
Will go now, following Da Roolz.
For what it is worth, when it comes to the Middle East, there is no one on the topic that I trust more than Daniel Pipes. He stated in an interview published today
[https://www.danielpipes.org/22597/making-sense-of-the-israel-iran-war?utm_source=Middle+East+Forum&utm_campaign=3a835a19dd-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2025_06_21_12_29&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_086cfd423c-3a835a19dd-33974085]
that:
“Iranians in the great majority, perhaps 85 percent, despise their Islamist government, so Islamism will be gone. But deleting an ideology does not assure a path to democracy; will Iran follow more the Ukrainian or the Russian model? The legacy of totalitarian rule makes it difficult to return to normal life, so I am pessimistic. That said, getting rid of tyranny matters most; just as in post-Saddam Hussein Iraq, better anarchy than Khamene’i.”
For the most part, as far as I know, Iran itself was not shooting missiles at Israel until Israel’s attacks.
But its proxy, Hamas, was.
..And Hezb and the Houthis and Shia groups in Iraq. NONE of these could come close to their “achievements” without Iranian assistance, help, money, weapons, etc. The Houthis aren’t hi-tech producers but I hear their caves are cool in the hot Yemeni sun. haha
And ….being behind/financing, providing tech expertise in blowing up the US Emb, Beirut, the Marines also in Beirut, French camp (ditto)….and Argentinian synagogue… there is such a long list and blood trail leading back to Tehran. Some hijacks in the 80s of planes (TWA comes to mind). These tumble out of my memory just sitting here.. off the top of my head.
Chants of “Death to America” and Israel, a “countdown clock” in Palestine Square, Tehran, for the hopeful destruction of Israel in 2040. Sponsoring assassinations in the US, Lebanon and Europe. Western hostages, Lebanon.
So….. we can tell pro-Iranian fools out there (presumably the Pro-Pal activists’ next maneuver):
Who has the jump in this latest fracas is utterly irrelevant when you pull the camera back and take in the last 45 years. The Islamic Republic is the most malignant, aggressive and murderous organization of modern times.
D.A.
NYC
I’m glad to see Hili’s humor and her interest in mice.
That leaf mimic is amazing. How the functioning organs work in the flat leaf amazes me. I see the legs but no real body except the leaf part.
Israel needs to continue its work dismantling Iran’s nuclear capability. Diplomacy doesn’t just involve sitting down and talking. Force (or the threat of force) is needed to nudge the parties in their negotiations. The two work hand in hand.
Iran’s demand that Israel stop its offensive before agreeing to negotiations is, I hope, a non-starter. Israel’s use of force is a prerequisite to negotiations, and it needs to continue even during negotiations—keeping the pressure on the Iranian leadership. The Iranian leadership is trying to stop the bombing in order to save itself and to save its nuclear ambitions. Israel cannot allow the latter.
Agreed. I don’t know how to describe it well, but with regard to international relations, including disputes, the work of a nations’ leaders is not like how neighbors interact over the back yard fence. To paraphrase from various leaders about interactions: ‘There are no enemies, and no friends, only interests’.
Frankly I think Israel had reasons to go postal on Iran’s military infrastructure years and years ago in response to the #$% proxy wars that Irans’ leadership openly supplies and encourages.
(I wrote this yesterday, before we bombed Fordow, but then somehow didn’t send it. Things can change rapidly!)
The service I follow about Ukraine, Reporting from Ukraine, has recently started limited coverage of Iran. Basically anything that hurts Iran helps Ukraine.
In their most recent post, they’re saying that Iran has been effectively cancelled. Of 450+ missiles that Iran launched against Israel in the first five days of the engagement (not sure what day this is), 200 were launched on the first day, decaying down to 30 in the last. As new launch sites are activated, they are taken out.
Seems to me that in this scenario, Israel & friends have the luxury to largely sit back, wait for regime collapse, and see what develops from that.
Today being National Smoothie Day reminds me of a joke that goes:
Knowledge is knowing that a tomato is a fruit. Wisdom is realizing that it’s not good to put a tomato into a fruit salad. Philosophy is wondering if ketchup is a smoothie.
The French math study found the gender gap “affects children from all socio-economic groups, in all regions of France, and in all types of school.” The gap became evident near the end of the first year of school.
The researchers attribute this gap to social factors such as girls’ anxiety about math, stereotypes, and parental expectations. However, it’s challenging to believe that these forces are uniformly present in every French school. Perhaps, instead, the underlying factor influencing every school is an innate genetic predisposition for math in boys, which manifests only towards the end of the first school year. Is this a plausible explanation? Does the evidence not equally support that conclusion?
Did you see PBS Newshour tonight?
First guest was a defender of the Islamic Republic. Unbelievable.
And then a celebration of Colombia U. Algerian terrorist Khalil NOT deported.
Well let’s open the champaign – we don’t have nearly enough terrorist rabble rousers here – we have to import them and keep them here when they break the law (according to a NJ for some reason judge). Top notch.
Maybe we should defund these PBS bastards? I thought my tax dollars went towards promoting American values rather than destroying my country and democracy. Silly me.
D.A.
NYC
(not a conservative. Former volunteer for Hillary’s campaign a decade ago)