Welcome to the second day of Passover: Sunday, April 13, 2025, and National Peach Cobbler Day.
It’s also Scrabble Day (celebrating the birthday of its creator, Alfred Mosher Butts [1899-1993]), Palm Sunday, and Thomas Jefferson Day (he was born on this day in 1743). Butts, an unemployed architect, invented Scrabble in Jackson Heights, New York. Near where he lived, they installed a street sign with the letters having their point value in Scrabble. It was stolen, but apparently has now been replaced.
Readers are welcome to mark notable events, births, or deaths on this day by consulting the April 6 Wikipedia page.
Da Nooz:
*Over at his Weekly Dish, Andrew Sullivan excoriates “The Emperor’s new Tariffs.” (The subtitle is “The latest in a long train of abuses. Time for the fepublic to strike back.”:
It has been a clarifying few days, hasn’t it?
My mind kept wandering to the fable of Hans Christian Andersen about the emperor’s new clothes. Insulated from any reality, surrounded entirely by yes-men, and utterly convinced of his own unique powers of observation, the Emperor struts forth one day sure of his new finery, but in fact, remains completely starkers. It takes one small boy to point out the feeble willy swinging in the breeze, and the exposure is complete. Indelible. Irrecoverable.
In this case, the bond market was the little boy. And the numbers proved what the cult kept denying: there was, and is, no coherence to the mad tariffs announced by the mad king — no strategy, no discernible math, no endgame, no rationality. It was just the crank who for decades has failed to understand trade finally acting out his long-held fantasies and delusions.
And that’s the other place my mind wandered, as I absorbed this insanity: how the Founders of America understood the core flaw of monarchy, and how uncannily similar our current plight seems to theirs. They saw kings as unpredictable, self-interested, insulated by courtiers, arrogant, and prone to huge errors of judgment and abuse of power. Vesting the interests of a nation in a single, unfettered person was a recipe for tyranny and instability. Franklin, having observed the British and French monarchies up-close for two decades, saw human nature as a warning against a singular executive.
This was especially true in the arena of foreign affairs, treaties, and tariffs, where a great nation needed stability and predictability if it was to grow and prosper and thrive in the opinion of mankind. Even Madison worried:
An individual who is observed to be inconstant to his plans, or perhaps to carry on his affairs without any plan at all, is marked at once, by all prudent people, as a speedy victim to his own unsteadiness and folly. His more friendly neighbors may pity him, but all will decline to connect their fortunes with his; and not a few will seize the opportunity of making their fortunes out of his.
The Russians, Chinese, Israelis, and Charles Schwab sure have.
. . . The last century, of course, has seen the Senate’s disgraceful abdication of their core constitutional role, with successive presidents crossing successive lines. But Trump — instinctually sensing the vacuum, and unencumbered by any understanding or knowledge of the Constitution — has dialed it to 11. He has effectively become an elected monarch, and is seen and worshipped as such by his people, his courtiers, and his advisers who know never to contradict a single thing the king says.
At the end Sullivan calls for the end of the monarchy that Trump has established, a monarchy that America was founded to oppose. “We have a republic to restore,” he says. But how? Either we have to depend on the courts to do it, or we have to hope that Trump screws up this term so badly that either Democrats or centrist Republicans (do they still exist?) take over in the next term.
*A federal court judge has ruled that former Columbia grad student Mahmoud Khalil, apparently being held in detention in Louisiana, can be deported for his pro-Palestinian activities, activities that endangered American foreign policy.
An immigration judge ruled Friday that Columbia University activist Mahmoud Khalil can be deported on grounds that he threatens foreign policy, as alleged by the Trump administration.
The stunning move may have repercussions on hundreds of other international students who have been targeted by the administration.
The Louisiana judge has given Khalil’s lawyers a deadline of April 23 to file applications for relief to stop his deportation. The judge said if they failed to make the deadline, she would file an order of removal to either Syria or Algeria.
The ruling stunned supporters in the court as the judge issued it. Some supporters in the courthouse began to weep as she agreed with the government’s assertion that they did not have to provide any evidence in addition for the administration’s main claim against Khalil.
Khalil, a green card holder and permanent legal resident who is married to an American citizen, addressed the court after the hearing was adjourned and spoke to the judge directly, referring to a previous comment she had made about due process and “fundamental fairness.”
. . .Judge Jamee Comans’ decision to remove Khalil fell in line with Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s assertion that his continued presence and actions in the country poses “adverse foreign policy consequence.”
One of Khalil’s supporters read a statement from Khalil’s wife, Noor Abdalla, after the ruling, calling it a “devastating blow to our family.”
“No person should be deemed removable from their home for speaking out against the killing of Palestinian families, doctors and journalists,” Abdalla’s statement said. “Today, in court, the government reiterated the same baseless racist claims about my husband that we have heard time and again, an attempt to smear those calling for an end to Israel’s brutal genocide in Gaza. My husband is a political prisoner who is being deprived of his rights because he believes Palestinians deserve equal dignity and freedom.”
. . . . The government has argued, under an obscure 1952 federal law called the Immigration and Nationality Act, that it believes migrants are deportable “if the Secretary of State has reasonable ground to believe that the alien’s presence or activities in the United States would have potentially serious adverse foreign policy consequences for the United States.”
I still think that Khalil was exercising freedom of speech, and that, as a green-card holder, he’s entitled to the same speech rights as an American citizen. But if the legal system rules that he’s deportable, I’ll have to go along with that, though I’d protest. I’m surprised this hasn’t gone to the Supreme Court, but perhaps it will.
*The U.S. talks with Iran over their nuclear program continue. Trump’s threats that the U.S. would strike Iran has forced the Iranians to the table:
US special envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff met briefly with Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi shortly after their two countries held their first round of talks on Tehran’s nuclear program in Oman and agreed to hold a second round next week.
The first known meeting between US and Iranian officials in years appeared to be a way for both sides to save face after US President Donald Trump announced at the beginning of the week that the talks would be direct, while Araghchi insisted that they would be indirect.
Regardless, both the over two-hour-long session mediated by Oman — with the US and Iran delegations in separate rooms — and the subsequent minutes-long conversation between Witkoff and Araghchi represented a potentially major tipping point in ties between the US and Iran.
Trump has warned that the failure of these talks could lead the US to strike Iran’s nuclear program. The US president said earlier this week that Israel would participate in such a strike, if not lead it.
Meanwhile, Iranian officials increasingly warn that they could pursue a nuclear weapon with their stockpile of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels.
. . . Talks between Iran and the US were focused on de-escalating regional tensions, prisoner exchanges, and limited agreements to ease sanctions in exchange for controlling Iran’s nuclear program, an Omani source told Reuters.
I still don’t think that Iran will give up its nuclear program, which it more or less has continued, either openly or secretly, for years. But Trump is the only President bold enough to threaten to strike Iran. (Israel would certainly help.) In the end, even if a deal is struck, I think Iran will continue pursuing the goal of building bombs and a delivery. system.
*If you’re worried that your smartphone or computer would go up hundreds of dollars in price because of the tariffs (most of these are made in China or SE Asia), you can relax–briefly. Trump appears to have largely, but not completely, exempted these items from new tariffs. (second link archived here).
After more than a week of ratcheting up tariffs on products imported from China, the Trump administration issued a rule late Friday that spared smartphones, computers, semiconductors and other electronics from some of the fees, in a significant break for tech companies like Apple and Dell and the prices of iPhones and other consumer electronics.
A message posted late Friday by U.S. Customs and Border Protection included a long list of products that would not face the reciprocal tariffs President Trump imposed in recent days on Chinese goods as part of a worsening trade war. The exclusions would also apply to modems, routers, flash drives and other technology goods, which are largely not made in the United States.
The exemptions are not a full reprieve. Other tariffs will still apply to electronics and smartphones. The Trump administration had applied a tariff of 20 percent on Chinese goods earlier this year for what the administration said was the country’s role in the fentanyl trade. And the administration could still end up increasing tariffs for semiconductors, a vital component of smartphones and other electronics.
The moves were the first major exemptions for Chinese goods, which would have wide-ranging implications for the U.S. economy if they persist. Tech giants such as Apple and Nvidia would largely sidestep punitive taxes that could slash their profits. Consumers — some of whom rushed to buy iPhones this past week — would avoid major potential price increases on smartphones, computers and other gadgets. And the exemptions could dampen inflation and turmoil that many economists feared might lead to a recession.
The tariff relief was also the latest flip-flop in Mr. Trump’s effort to rewrite global trade in a bid to boost U.S. manufacturing. The factories that churn out iPhones, laptops and other electronics are deeply entrenched in Asia — especially in China — and are unlikely to move without a galvanizing force like the steep taxes that the Trump administration had proposed.
“It’s difficult to know if there’s a realization within the administration that reworking the American economy is a gargantuan effort,” said Matthew Slaughter, the dean of the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth.
The electronics exemptions apply to all countries, not just China. The Trump administration has paused its “reciprocal” tariffs on nearly 60 countries globally for 90 days. But if those tariffs resume on July 8, this carve-out would mean they would not apply to chips, TVs and other electronics.
However, the article adds that the Administration is looking at semiconductor tariffs, which are a crucial component of smartphones and other electronics. Be prepared for more swings in the market, if you care about such things. And I still think that Trump is going to tariff us into a recession.
*The Menendez brothers, sentenced to life without parole for killing their parents, have been in jail since 1996. Now they get a shot at freedom.
Erik and Lyle Menendez’s resentencing hearings can continue despite opposition from the Los Angeles County district attorney, a judge ruled Friday.
They were sentenced to life in prison without the possibility of parole at ages 18 and 21 after being convicted of murdering their parents, Jose and Kitty Menendez, in their Beverly Hills home in 1989.
While defense attorneys argued the brothers acted out of self-defense after years of sexual abuse by their father, prosecutors said the brothers killed their parents for a multimillion-dollar inheritance.
The case has captured the public’s attention for decades, and the Netflix drama “ Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story ″ and the documentary “The Menendez Brothers,” released in the fall of 2024, have been credited for bringing new attention to the case. Supporters of the brothers have flown in from across the country to attend rallies and hearings in the past few months.
Former Los Angeles District Attorney George Gascón asked a judge last year to change the brothers’ sentence from life without the possibility of parole to 50 years to life. That would make them immediately eligible for parole because they committed the crime when they were younger than 26.
They went on a spending spree with their inheritance after they shot their parents, and I am not convinced that they were sexually abused. And I certainly do not think they are rehabilitated. But the law will work out what happens.
*And there’s GOOD news tonight: capybara cafes are coming to America (they’ve been a staple in Japan for a while). They are lovely and chill animals, even if they are rodents. Sadly, they can’t be adopted, so I’m not sure what their fate will be.
Animal lovers now have a place to hang out with the “it” animals of the moment — big furry rodents.
In the back of a real estate office building in what is known as America’s oldest city, capybaras are crawling into visitors’ laps, munching on corn on the cob and hunting for scratches from humans at The Capybara Cafe in St. Augustine, Florida.
“You give them lots of scratches and love,” said Stephanie Angel, who opened The Capybara Cafe late last year. “A lot of times they’ll climb on your lap because they’re very used to people, and if you’re really good at giving scratches, they’ll actually fall over. So that’s always our goal to get them so comfortable that they fall over.”
Since opening its doors in October in downtown St. Augustine, near the Flagler College campus, hundreds of animal lovers have visited the site to give the capybaras head scratches. Reservations are booked several months in advance by patrons like Leah Macri, who recently visited the northeast Florida location from Orlando with her daughter.
“Their fur kind of feels like straw a bit,” Macri said.
It ain’t cheap, though:
After entering a reception area with couches and an open pen of baby chicks, visitors are escorted into a smaller room in groups of a half dozen or so people. Blankets are placed over their laps, and three capybaras are brought into the room. Other animals like a skunk, wallaby and armadillo are also introduced into the room, and they crawl among the humans and into their laps. The cost is $49 per person for a half-hour encounter, and $99 for an hour-long encounter that involves the other animals.
I still worry about what will happen to these creatures. At any rate, here’s a capybara cafe in action in Japan:
Meanwhile in Dobrzyn, Hili is anxious in the garden:
Hili: Have you noticed that while we are in the garden we almost forget about the news?A: Yes, but some anxiety still lingers.
In Polish:
Hili: Czy zwróciłeś uwagę na fakt, że w ogrodzie prawie zapominamy o wiadomościach?Ja: Tak, ale jakiś niepokój ciągle zostaje.
And a photo of Baby Kulka:
And in Berlin, Stupsi Stupsi: “Die Sonne im Westen wird bald untergehen.” Translation: “The sun will soon set in the West.”
****************
From Stacy:
From Cat Memes:
From: Things With Faces; a floor rabbit
Here’s Masih arguing that Iran will never give up its quest for nukes:
The Islamic Republic will never dismantle its nuclear program.
Khamenei isn’t negotiating, he’s clinging to anti-American hate at any cost.
He’d rather see its nuclear sites bombed than sign a deal.They understand only one language: pressure.
— Masih Alinejad 🏳️ (@AlinejadMasih) April 12, 2025
Luana sent this and asked me if it was true. Apparently it is; Robinson was sentenced to life in prison for brutal killing of her daughter, though you’ll have to look hard about her feelings about white privilege (you can see some reportage here). I’m still not sure whether this tweet is exaggerated, or the press is playing down Robinson’s dislike of white people (if so, why did she adopt a white child?)
Remember the intense legacy media coverage and outrage? Remember the protests?
Me neither. pic.twitter.com/wNDv4NQC2j
— iamyesyouareno (@iamyesyouareno) April 11, 2025
Reader Simon, who is depressed about the state of the world, says that this post amused him, “and not much has lately.”
Donald Trump has made himself—and by extension, us—the laughing stock of the world.
— George Conway 👊🇺🇸🔥 (@gtconway.bsky.social) 2025-04-12T01:46:00.669Z
From Malcolm, a monkey version of the Sharks vs. the Jets:
This is the astonishing moment two rival gangs of wild monkeys fought each other.
This usually happens when a group of monkeys normally well fed by visitors meets another group and a feud can take place.pic.twitter.com/51DwouM5eX
— Massimo (@Rainmaker1973) April 7, 2025
From my feed: a fancy prancing pony:
Oh he knows he’s fancy!! pic.twitter.com/Z0x0Uhi8u0
— Nature is Amazing ☘️ (@AMAZlNGNATURE) April 11, 2025
From the Auschwitz Memorial, one that I reposted:
A Belgian Jewish boy was gassed upon arrival at Auschwitz. He was six years old.
— Jerry Coyne (@evolutionistrue.bsky.social) 2025-04-13T10:21:35.600Z
Two from Dr. Cobb. For the first one he asks, “How come there aren’t there riots in the streets?” You got me!
What a grim paragraph http://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/10/u…
— Joshua J. Friedman (@joshuajfriedman.com) 2025-04-10T20:16:44.552Z
And of this one Matthew says, “Marx was right.” It’s from a Marx Brothers movie:
Cabinet Member: I wish to discuss the tariff.Firefly: Sit down, that's new business. No old business? Very well, we'll take up new business.Cabinet Member: Now, about that tariff…Firefly: Too late, that's old business already. Sit down.Duck Soup, 1933
— Lev Parikian (@levparikian.bsky.social) 2025-04-09T21:31:15.155Z
A THOUGHT FOR TODAY:
There is also an artificial aristocracy founded on wealth and birth, without either virtue or talents… The artificial aristocracy is a mischievous ingredient in government, and provisions should be made to prevent its ascendancy. -Thomas Jefferson, third US president, architect, and author (13 Apr 1743-1826)
Do you know the context or occasion for this quote from Jefferson, Rick? I am a long-time admirer and reader of Thomas Jefferson, but do not recall this quotation. Certainly Jefferson himself was a Virginia governor, legislator, statesman, and U.S. president of wealth and birth by any reasonable measure.
Jim, I must confess I don’t know the actual source of this quote. I found it in A Word A Day:
https://wordsmith.org/awad/about.html
I highly recommend subscribing to the daily email which is mainly about words but also includes a notable quote in each issue.
The quote appears here:
https://press-pubs.uchicago.edu/founders/documents/v1ch15s61.html
Thanks Charles. I must admit that I have not read all of the Jefferson-Adams correspondence. Like PCC(E), Jefferson could create and write faster than I can read and understand….and that was using the writing instruments of his day!
Wow – the Jefferson Quote
Saw it earlier in my word blog.
Now, Gerry’s blog.
I am in an echo chamber.
Regarding the use of the “death master file,” there is no mass outrage because the benefit recipients should not be receiving benefits in the first place because they are here illegally. That doesn’t mean that there won’t be riots. Like the Venus Flycatcher, many on the left wake up and chose violence.
Wrong. Placement in the death master file means they cannot legally work and pay into the social security fund from which they would never collect, thus hastening the day of reckoning for SS. Of course, it does motivate those so inclined to work under the table so no taxes of any kind are collected. Welcome to a few more billion dollars of deficit and debt. Brilliant!
Wrong.
“By placing migrants in Social Security’s “death master file,” the Trump administration is seeking to cut off their access to credit cards, bank accounts and other financial services.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/10/us/politics/migrants-deport-social-security-doge.html
“…capybara cafes are coming to America… they’ve been a staple in Japan for a while…”
A “staple”? I’ve only ever heard of one here in Japan. Some web searching turned up two more (all-round animal cafes with a capybara or two included). I imagine there could be more, but all the same, a capybara cafe is a very rare novelty here…
What garbage reportage on Khalil in the article quoted above. The “obscure” Imm. & Nat. Act 1952 is one of the key founding laws in immigration jurisprudence. Not “obscure” like an ancient law against jousting!
He lied on his visa application UNLESS he discovered Hamas after his arrival in the US. I doubt that is the case. They ask about membership of a terrorist org. That is deportable itself. We have deported a dozen Nazis last century for this.
PCC(E) – Green Card holders DO NOT have the same rights as citizens.
And certainly not to rally mobs for an organization endorsing over throwing the US gvt (read Hamas’ charter) or causing public harm. Many anarchists were deported a century ago for that.
Except criminal rights, he has those like a US citizen. If he’d murdered somebody he’d be entitled to a free lawyer, but deportation is an ADMINISTRATIVE action, not criminal.
And more keening about his whining wife. Should we consider the family circumstances of other terrorists? Obama says: “Hold off on killing Bin Laden… he has 3 very sympathetic wives!” Really.
The whole thing is a ridiculous argument legally, full of lefty sleights of hand and lies.
Put that terrorist on a plane back to Algeria. A greater punishment is hard to imagine if you know about Algeria!
D.A., J.D.
NYC
I agree. Get this bum out of the country. This is not about free speech. The US constitution is not a suicide pact – i.e., we have no ethical obligation to let foreigners live in the US who want to destroy Western civilization. On Friday’s Real Time with Bill Maher, one of the guest was the Washington Post journalist Josh Rogin. He invoked Christopher Hitchens’ defence of free speech to argue that Khalil should not be deported. Rogin argued that this was about free speech. No it isn’t. I doubt that Hitchens would have argued in favor of Khalil staying. He knew what Islamic fundamentalism is.
The ruling was by an immigration judge, who, while a Federal official (he works for DHS), is not what would usually be considered a Federal judge (District Court judge, Court of Appeals judge – an “Article III judge”). And that immigration judge basically said that, if the reporting is correct: “Rubio said Khalil was a national security risk and I’m not going to second guess that, so he’s deportable.”
But that decision is challengeable in Federal court, and no doubt will be. There is also a separate Federal court order, I believe from New Jersey, that prevents Khalil being deported at the moment.
While David is correct that the rights of a green card holder are not the same as those of a US citizen, the issue of whether Khalil is really a national security risk and therefore deportable has yet to be adjudicated in court as opposed to pronounced by the administration. I express no opinion on that.
Yes, Derek, you’re correct that the pertinent question is “Is he a risk to national security?” This is a term of art that sounds grand but can be quite mundane.
Given his advocacy, his outsized effect…. added to his actual cause (Hamas – remember he’s not advocating for the “Australian Zoo Animal Exhibit Scandal”)… he is indeed a risk. Consider Hamas’ central ideology, they even explained it in person on Oct. 7th.
I’m pleased you understand the bright line between aliens v citizens. Were he a citizen there’d be no deporting him at all. I’d halt the plane myself, though I’d be annoyed.
Central also is that he LIED about it all on his visa application. A HUUUGE no no. If the officer at the airport had known that he’d have been excludable then and there.
cheers Derek,
D.A.
NYC
I inadvertently left the last two letters off my name on my comment above. Sorry. I need to cool my jets.
Obviously being a spoiled, entitled, poor-mannered grifter isn’t grounds for deportation, but has anyone else puzzled over the fact that he is 30 years old and living in pricey student housing in one of the most expensive United States cities doing nothing productive? His relatively new wife is said to be a dentist… Is that where they’re getting their money? Just an everyday human curiosity type question. Nothing fancy. No high minded political statements. Just, what the hell is he doing here? He’s supposed to be a big time activist for the Palestinian cause. Why on a college campus in the US? Is that the best he can come up with? I don’t feel sorry for him. The two of them had some sort of organization in Lebanon that funded Syrians to go to school abroad? Have others read that about this couple? Get a job. Protest closer to the people and place you claim to care about. Have some damn gratitude for being allowed over here in the first place. Shape up or ship out.
Actually, given this guy’s evident beliefs and attitudes, living in a Judenrein Islamofascist paradise such as Algeria might not be a punishment to him at all. Rather, it would be sending him to exactly the kind of place he wants the rest of the world to be.
So what did Apple and other tech companies have to do to get tariffs reduced? I notice we always see that tariffs are reduced or removed, but never what prompted it. I am assuming Trump will not remove a tariff for nothing.
Spoke too soon. Lutnick says tech will get their own tariffs later, so the exemption is temporary:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/article-14604493/trump-tariffs-howard-lutnick-electronics-iphones.html
Yes, Daily Mail, but there is an ABC video embedded that has Lutnick explaining.
Perhaps somebody pointed out to Trump that if the consumer price of iPhones and similar gadgets doubled in coming months (which is what the tariffs on China would mean) then the tariffs and thus Trump would get very unpopular very rapidly.
Retail prices wouldn’t double with a 100% tariff because the tariff applies on the invoiced price of the goods that the importer pays, not on the price they are eventually sold for on American store shelves or catalogue sites. The markups after importing don’t attract tariff (although most types of sales taxes do apply on the post-tariff price, adding another few percent.)
But the importer still can’t pass the tariff totally through to customers. The seller knows that fewer people will buy a phone for $1500 than will buy one for $1000 so to maximize profit in each transaction all sellers have to eat some of the tariff themselves or find internal ways of economizing. How big “some” is depends on how sensitive consumer demand is to price. Unlike with a tax, end users can evade the tariff entirely by deferring purchase of a smart phone until this all blows over.
There’s an elegant little quote I saw earlier this morning from someone unimpressed by Trump’s change of mind, it went something like this:
“Chinese battery imported from China: tariff 145%;
Chinese battery imported in computer from China: tariff 20%;
Chinese battery imported in computer from Vietnam: tariff 0% –
a really great way to encourage US electronics manufacturing!”
I don’t know the truth of this, but I had recently read that China exports to the U.S. amounts to just 2% of the Chinese GDP. I can believe that Trump has badly miscalculated, but wow.
Probably not far off, Mark. Cobbling together Wiki’s article List of Countries by Trade-to-GDP Ratio and this article on China
https://trendeconomy.com/data/h2/China/TOTAL
China’s export trade accounts for 20% of its GDP, of which 15% goes to the U.S.
Of note, export trade accounts for only 11% of the GDP of the United States, far below the rich-country average of 32%. On the import side, the U.S. is also an outlier, with only 15% of GDP accounted for by imports, with the rich-world average being 31%. American exceptionalism indeed.
(All figures are merchandise trade, things you can drop on your toe. Not included are financial services, capital flows, or I don’t think, tourism by visiting foreigners.)
Leslie, your numbers are not consistent with Mark’s 2% number, for the share of Chinese exports to the US as a percentage of Chinese GDP.
From an article from CNBC (from April 11, 2025):
Here’s a breakdown of Chinese exports to the US:
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-chinas-dependence-on-u-s-trade/
In 2023, the size of the Chinese labor force was 772 millions. So if 20 million Chinese are involved in producing US exports (per CNBC), that would be 2.6% of the Chinese labor force.
Population in 2023:
China 1410 million
US 335 million
Canada 40 million
United Kingdom 68.35 million
GDP (Gross Domestic Product) per capita (adjusted for differences in purchasing power) in 2023 (i.e., average yearly income – should be Gross National Income, but the average GNI and average GDP numbers for these 4 countries are very close to each other):
China $24,570
USA $82,770
Canada $61,650
United Kingdom $59,626
Median income or consumption per day (2024):
China $12
US $62.40
Canada $56.30
United Kingdom 46.87
Data for the last 3 statistics are from the World Bank.
15% of 20% is 3%, no? I agree that 3% vs. 2% of a very large number (China’s GDP) is still a big number of dollars different but in terms of ball-parking China’s dependence on the U.S. I thought it was close enough to reassure Mark that his 2% number was grounded in reality. China is attempting to make itself less dependent on export markets, as per Frau Katz’s Atlantic Council article, and perhaps the value of China’s exports to the U.S. will soon fall to 2% of its GDP, as its GDP grows domestically. The important thing is that the number is nothing like 20%, as perhaps some trade warriors want to believe.
A 2% (or 3%) hit to a country’s GDP is, as you say, a devastating blow if the country has little scope to diversify and put those export workers to work doing something else. China’s totalitarian leader is willing to make them “eat bitterness” to do it, as the AC says.
Canada’s oil exports (almost entirely to the United States) account for 5.5% of our GDP. We have no other market for it. There is China-type talk of becoming less dependent on a single customer but developing the capacity to ship our crude out from ports to countries willing and able to refine it sounds too much like political hard work and bitterness for us. Half the country seems to want to get out of the oil business anyway.
Sorry, you are right. Indeed, 15% of 20% is 3%.
Once one looks at the numbers it seems that the US cannot win a trade war against China. And China is an authoritarian country – its rulers are much less dependent on their peoples’ support than in the US. And they care much less about their welfare than US politicians, by design of its political system, have to care about US citizens.
Trump Showed His Pain Point in His Standoff With China. New York Times, April 11, 2025
Xi Jinping, who rules with absolute authority, has shown he is willing to let the Chinese people endure hardship. President Trump revealed he has limits.
https://archive.ph/w9GK2
I found this:
Chinese exports to the United States account for 14.7 percent of China’s total in 2024, down from 19.2 percent in 2018, while overseas shipments to Southeast Asian and Belt-and-Road countries have grown, according to Beijing.
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/china-is-ready-to-eat-bitterness-in-the-trade-war-what-about-the-us/
China is engaging in what economists call beggar-thy-neighbour economic policy – that is, a policy through which one country attempts to remedy its economic problems by means that tend to worsen the economic problems of other countries:
‘The Tsunami Is Coming’: China’s Global Exports Are Just Getting Started. New York Times, April 7, 2025
A staggering $1.9 trillion in extra industrial lending is fueling a continued flood of exports that could be spread even wider across the world by the Trump tariffs.
https://archive.ph/MdhfU
Excerpt:
The NYT article also contains this sentence:
So, China’s population in 2023 was 1410 million while the joint population of the mentioned 5 countries was 663 million.
I’ll check that out.
China needs to stop being authoritarian and grow their domestic economy so they’re not so dependent on exports.
“Needs” from whose point of view, though? Ours? Or China’s?
China becoming less authoritarian and more internally consumptive was one of wishes of the World Order when it let China into it. That didn’t work out so well.
Sometimes what someone “needs” someone to do is just something he “can’t” do…or “won’t” do because our power to influence him to respond to our needs is just not sufficient to move him. Those of us who have been bosses are taught to say, “I need you to get this report done before you go home tonight,” because it sounds more empathic than saying, “Put your report on my desk before quitting time.” Yet both sides of the request are under no illusion. The underling and her boss both know she can’t respond, “But I need to pick my kid up at daycare before 6.” But China can say, “We don’t care what your needs are, except insofar as you need our cheap electric cars if you are going to meet your own NetZero targets.” Until China sees a need for its people to have more say into how they are governed, or to have more domestic private spending power, things will stay as they are. It was a mistake to allow an authoritarian country that will make its people eat bitterness into the economic world order of decadent consumption. But here we are.
I have to say, this discussion (including articles you yourself have cited) is teaching me far more about the tariff war than Sullivan’s unhinged rant against President Trump. Is he always like that? I mean, we all know the story of the Emperor’s new clothes. No need to expound on it in prurient detail. Why couldn’t he have talked more about the movement in the bond market and let us readers think up our own adjectives to describe Mr. Trump?
Domestic Chinese consumption being too low has been an issue for about the last 15 years.
If you look at the numbers I posted:
China’s GDP per capita (PPP estimate) as a fraction of US GDP per capita (PPP estimate): 29.7%.
China’s median consumption per day as a fraction of US median consumption per day: 19.2%
From Forbes Magazine recently:
“China has long been one of the largest holders of U.S. government debt, peaking at over $1.3 trillion a decade ago. Today, those holdings have fallen to just $759 billion, the lowest level since 2009. [The U.S. government currently owes the Social Security Trust Fund $2.77 trillion. Isn’t it convenient for the U.S. government to have access to and effectively treat as additional income taxes the Social Security taxes paid by U.S. citizens?]
Recent Treasury auctions have also sent up red flags. A 3-year note auction held this week drew a bid-to-cover ratio of just 2.48, below recent averages — signaling tepid demand. Poor auction results push yields higher, raising borrowing costs for the U.S. government and putting upward pressure on rates across the board.
If China and other foreign buyers are stepping back from these auctions — or worse, actively selling in secondary markets — it could dramatically shift the supply-demand balance in the world’s largest bond market.”
The U.S. gripes mightily about China but somehow does not refuse to sell the latter government securities. (I wonder if some portion of those sales to China fund the U.S. military budget. Is the apparently imminent $1 trillion U.S. defense budget funded solely by income taxes?) Would the U.S. ever refuse to pay up when securities sold to China mature? Would that not tarnish the “good faith and credit” reputation of the U.S.?
AI tells me that “China’s national debt, including local and central government debt, was approximately $14.9 trillion in 2023. This figure represents about 84.38% of China’s GDP.” The U.S. national debt is currently in excess of $30 trillion.
(For Marco Rubio’s sake, I trust that my statements are not causing “adverse foreign policy consequences.” I’m thinking of visiting Galapagos in 2026. Will U.S. Customs, at the behest of the U.S. State Department, remove me from my plane?)
Relatedly to the death master file, something I’ve been wondering lately re. an old HS friend. Some yrs back – at least 15 – he tracked me down and we corresponded periodically. Then for the last 5yrs or so he has gone silent, altho emails didn’t bounce. As far as I could gather, altho we never talked about it, he had been living in a Mennonite community in relatively rural Colorado, and working somewhat independently in the solar energy area. But no obituaries have shown up. I even went to the extent of mailing him a Xmas card, but got no reply. And traces of his existence remain online.
Now it could be that he has gotten some awful degenerative disease and is too depressed to communicate – another old HS pal is mostly in that category, but has at least told me about it, but the other possibility is that he died and was quietly buried by his community, who continues to collect his Social Security. Does anyone know of instances of this sort of thing, esp in somewhat insular communities?
I would think there would be an inquiry from the IRS.
But if there’s no death certificate, and someone keeps filing income taxes on SS and any other retirement income, they’d have no reason to suspect. If payments were deposited to his bank account, and someone had his passwords, he could appear to still be extant.
Depends somewhat on what Mennonite community in rural Colorado that you are talking about. Big difference between say Rocky Ford and Westcliff.
Trump has no strategy, despite those who claim that he’s playing N-dimensional chess on an intellectual plane that mortal persons cannot comprehend. No. He acts impulsively and creates FUD (fear, uncertainty, and dread). Any positive outcome that results takes place either (1) because others (including government leaders) are so startled that they move to counter or acquiesce, or (2) because saner minds come to the rescue to temper Trump’s acts after the fact. Sometimes—and I’m hoping this is the case with the tariffs—(3) Trump himself discovers that he *ucked up and changes course (typically declaring that his N-dimensional strategy has worked). This is no way to run a government or to manage the global economy.
I very much enjoy the exchanges between Hili and Andrzej, as well as the photos of Kulka and friends.
You can never have too many cat pictures! 🐈🐈🐈
To Leslie et al above: I agree I’d have liked to hear more about the bond market b/c that’s a REALLY big deal.
Money comes, money goes, exports go up and down but the bond behavior IS our “national trust” – our creditworthiness and the real source of our power. (or rather a measure of it).
I was an options/equities trader not doing bonds for my career. I do understand them. But it strikes me how little it is mentioned in the media. Probably b/c it is too complicated to explain to the public?
Great chat above btw fellow WEITers. This place operates on a higher intellectual level than any social media.*
D.A.
NYC
*credit to the editor who weeds out the maniacs!
It is complicated. But I saw a good description at The Bulwark that helped me realize the significance of bonds.