Why Evolution is True is a blog written by Jerry Coyne, centered on evolution and biology but also dealing with diverse topics like politics, culture, and cats.
Welcome to CaturSaturday, November 2, 2024. We’re into November already; where did the summer go? It’s National Deviled Egg Day (a good treat!). I could easily eat this whole bowl–and more!
American military and intelligence officials have concluded that the war in Ukraine is no longer a stalemate as Russia makes steady gains, and the sense of pessimism in Kyiv and Washington is deepening.
The dip in morale and questions about whether American support will continue pose their own threat to Ukraine’s war effort. Ukraine is losing territory in the east, and its forces inside Russia have been partially pushed back.
The Ukrainian military is struggling to recruit soldiers and equip new units. The number of its soldiers killed in action, about 57,000, is half of Russia’s losses but still significant for the much smaller country.
Russia’s shortages of soldiers and supplies have also grown worse, Western officials and other experts said. And its gains in the war have come at great cost.
If U.S. support for Ukraine remains strong until next summer, Kyiv could have an opportunity to take advantage of Russia’s weaknesses and expected shortfalls in soldiers and tanks, American officials say.
Russian troops have advanced in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. They have clawed back more than a third of the territory that Ukrainian forces seized in a surprise offensive in the Kursk region of western Russia this year. The number of Russian drone strikes across Ukraine has increased from 350 in July to 750 in August and 1,500 in September.
This is deeply disappointing, but really: what chance did Ukraine stand against Russia, especially now that North Korean soldiers have joined the Russians. And, of course, if Russia swallows Ukraine, as it did Crimea, there is nothing we can do. Sanctions accomplish nothing. And I’m worried that China will take a lesson from Russia and go after Taiwan. After all, it’s been practicing to do that for some time.
*As usual, I’ll steal three items from Nellie Bowles’s weekly news summary on The Free Press, this week called “TGIF: We’re all garbage.”
→ We’re all garbage: While Kamala Harris stood outside the White House to deliver her closing pitch to America, looking amazing and elegant in a bright white cowl neck (not sorry! She’s a 10!), Joe Biden made his own closing remarks. From a video call at the White House residence, he called Trump supporters feral trash rats. In Biden’s words: “The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters.”
He was responding to a fairly offensive joke said at a Trump rally by a boorish comedian: “I don’t know if you guys know this, but there’s literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now. I think it’s called Puerto Rico.” The crowd reaction was mixed to negative. And then Biden said that the only trash is Trumpers—it was like watching the Democrats be handed a gift from Team Trump only to watch them crumple it up and hand it back.
Right on cue, America’s reporters snapped into action to deny that Biden said exactly what Biden said. He didn’t mean Trump supporters were trash, he meant that they litter, said The Washington Post.
The White House press office slightly altered the transcript—a “breach of protocol and spoilation of transcript integrity,” according to the White House stenographers—making it seem like he was talking about the supporters’ rubbish, like “Hey, don’t forget your supporters’ garbage should be separated into plastic and paper,” and Politico ran cover. My only question is: Don’t mainstream reporters ever get tired of running interference for Joe and Kamala? Don’t they ever want to just relax, drop their shoulders, and write about the words they say out loud? You can have a hundred delicately placed apostrophes in that sentence; it won’t change the fact that Biden called Trumpers “garbage.” Then he went to the White House Halloween party and bit some costumed babies, which looked really fun. He’s having fun and he’s getting a little loose with the rhetoric. It’s okay!
→ AOC makes the best pro-Harris pitch: Representative Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez made the most compelling Kamala Harris pitch I’ve ever heard. Here’s AOC: “I do not want to do four more years of resistance nonsense under Donald Trump, okay? Like, good god. Like, do we remember what it was like waking up every day and there was some shit going on?” Really, really fair.
The #Resistance era was a modern dark age. For starters, people showed up to dinner reservations acting like they’d just seen live combat when they’d only seen a Kayleigh McEnany press briefing. Journalists posted that they feared arrest and yet were never arrested; our president was communicating policy updates and major political appointments in all-caps Twitter screeds. Let’s just say the literature and paintings from those years will not be archived—no college libraries are bidding on those papers. Language slipped away. Comedy got self-conscious. AOC is completely right. We can’t survive as a culture. If the #Resistance/Twitter-screed era comes back, which I fear it may, we should just preemptively shut down publishing houses for a few years. Take the phones away and let’s do a real dictator run this time where Trump doesn’t call into Fox & Friends so much.
→ A random shoot-out: In Chicago, a West African migrant went to a Jewish neighborhood and shot a Jewish man on his way to a synagogue—while screaming “Allahu Akbar.” He then ran around shooting anyone he could find near the synagogue until police came. It’s all captured on video, even the Allahu Akbar part. But here’s how the Chicago Tribune covered it:
Sure sounds like another racist police shooting if you ask me! Feels like there’s a silent unarmed there. Chicago’s mayor seemed unusually tongue-tied on the matter. And the police say they have no idea what the motive could be, with a spokesman explaining: “The statement that was made. . . is nothing that we could bring in as evidence at this point that would support any motive.”
*Another piece in the NYT, an op-ed by author Sara Sherbill, shows the desperation that people are bringing to next Tuesday’s election, “You might consider praying.” It’s not just the election, for there is global warming, the war in Gaza, and so on. A solution?:
What can we do when our hearts are breaking? When we are filled with stress and anxiety, when the sadnesses stack up, when hopelessness isn’t an irrational response but a genuine reflection of daily reality? What can we do when we don’t know what to do?
We can pray.
Prayer requires no formal religious observance. You need not attend a temple or church or synagogue or mosque. Prayer need not be a poem or acrostic or hymn. Prayers can simply bubble up from the deepest place inside of yourself. It can be prayer in your own words. It can be prayer with no words.
Many of us were raised to believe that prayer is about communicating with God. It can be, of course. But prayer can also be a way of communicating with ourselves, a tool of self-inquiry. It can be entirely our own, bespoke.
. . .And yet, even if prayer as you once understood it isn’t a place of solace, that doesn’t mean it can’t be once again. What if we redefine prayer entirely? What if, when you are home, you simply sit in a chair and breathe, imagining you are worthy of what you pray for? Maybe that’s peace in your heart, or the strength to act with courage even when you are terrified. Maybe you are asking for the clarity of mind to know which path to take next.
Prayer can also be less a request than a thank you. It can be a list of everything you are grateful for.You might direct prayer toward those you have lost: In my case I think of my grandfather, or my best friend who died in April after a long battle with cancer. What if prayer is asking those who are gone to watch over us? Maybe your prayer is a walk in the morning that takes in the world around you, observing the light bouncing off the leaves. It seems to me that, too, is a prayer. Who is to say it is not?
Sorry, but in my book praying has always been about either importuning or at least having a chat with a supernatural being. Now, as we see, it has turned into meditation. So why not call it meditation? Why redefine it—isn’t that just enabling faith? I remember once asking Sam Harris what kind of bedtime meditation he thought would help with my insomnia, and he suggested concentrating on what I’m grateful for. But that’s just what it says above!
Betting markets show former President Donald Trump has a roughly 60% chance of beating Vice President Kamala Harris next week. Should they be trusted?
History suggests that betting markets have generally been good forecasters of U.S. elections. More often than not, the presidential candidate with the best odds before Election Day goes on to take the White House.
But there have been some glaring exceptions. In 2016, for instance, betting markets such as PredictIt and U.K.-based Betfair gave Hillary Clinton a more than 80% chance of defeating Trump in the days before the election. Instead, Trump won an upset victory.
Today, with polls showing Harris and Trump in a dead heat, the accuracy of betting markets has become a politically loaded question. Supporters of Harris have raised doubts about a recent run-up in Trump’s chances, arguing that betting markets are vulnerable to manipulation, skewed to a right-leaning user base and distorted by multimillion-dollar wagers placed by a small number of users. Meanwhile, Trump supporters say the betting markets are reacting to polls tightening in his favor and signs of Harris losing momentum in the campaign’s closing stretch.
. . . . Today’s prediction markets have seized on skepticism of opinion polls to argue that betting markets are a more accurate predictor of election results. Not only did pollsters miss badly in 2016, they have suffered from the growing difficulty of gathering information, as fewer Americans use landline telephones and many don’t answer calls from strangers.
“We believe Polymarket is the most accurate way to follow the election,” Polymarket founder and Chief Executive Officer Shayne Coplan said in an interview over the summer. “Nobody takes polling seriously anymore.”
In 2020, prediction markets gave Joe Biden lower chances of winning than polls implied—and their skepticism turned out to be prescient when Biden didn’t crush Trump in a landslide. At the end of October 2020, for instance, bettors on PredictIt were giving Biden a 65% chance of winning, while FiveThirtyEight’s poll-based statistical model put his chances at 89%.
But betting markets missed in 2022. Just before Election Day, PredictIt was giving Republicans a more than 70% chance of taking the Senate, reflecting media narratives of a “red wave” election. The Democrats ended up flipping a seat to win a narrow 51-49.
Here’s the figure the WSJ gives with its article, with three betting markets showing Trump leading:
A winged creature from Oregon was crowned this year’s winner Thursday in an annual bat beauty contest put on by the Bureau of Land Management.
On Halloween, which was also the last day of International Bat Week, a hoary bat with a feisty personality named “Hoary Potter” defeated “Lestat”, the western small-footed bat from Idaho, in the final round of the contest. It also bested a Townsend’s big-eared bat named “Sir Flaps-A-Lot” from Utah, among others.
The victory marks the third year in a row that a bat from Oregon has taken first place in the contest. Last year, “William ShakespEAR,” a female Townsend’s big-eared bat from southern Oregon took the title. In 2022, a canyon bat named “Barbara” also from southern Oregon was declared the winner.
The federal agency has held the competition since 2019 to raise awareness about the animal’s ecological importance. The bats are part of wild populations living on public lands, and are photographed by agency staff. BLM posted the photos on its Facebook and Instagram accounts, and asked people to vote for the cutest one.
Hoary bats are known for swift flight and wrapping themselves in their own tails to mimic leaves and to hide from predators, the agency said. Because of this attribute, it estimated Hoary Potter would be “the perfect candidate for seeker on this year’s Quidditch team,” referring to the game in Harry Potter that is played on flying brooms.
. . . aaaand, here’s Hoary Potter:
Meanwhile in Dobrzyn, Hili speaks truth to power:
Hili: Do you really think there is no honest media anymore?
A: I’m afraid that you will not find them in the mainstream.
In Polish:
Hili: Czy naprawdę nie ma już uczciwych mediów?
Ja: Obawiam się, że w głównym nurcie ich nie znajdziesz.
From Masih; Jamshid Sharmahd wasn’t an American, but a permanent American resident of German-Iranian ancestry. Still, for his political connections he was kidnapped from Dubai on his way to India and has recently been executed. Germany and the U.S. have pronounced his trial as a “sham”.
What happened to the only American on death row in Iran?
In my testimony at the House Foreign Affairs Committee, I warned the U.S. government about Jamshid Sharmahd’s life and the dangers of handing $6 billion to the terrorist regime in Iran.
Two tweets from Dr. Cobb. First, a Google Street View:
Over the summer, I went to the very North of the Isle of Lewis on a field trip to map the geology there with a close friend of mine. The google street view car went past. We had a geological hammer. The following masterpiece, now on google street view, was the result pic.twitter.com/NIBPnxuIl5
. . . and a gorgeous photo of the dark side of the Moon and the Earth behind:
This photograph reveals the far side of the Moon, which we usually do not see and Earth in view image by the Chang’e 5-T1 spacecraft on October 28, 2014.
Each “side” of the moon is fundamentally different in appearance, so much so that it is hard for most to “see” the Moon here. pic.twitter.com/TEKZ2O8H4y
The problem in Ukraine is the drip-feed nature of Western, especially American, support. Not enough to win or advance, on purpose, just enough to barely survive.
It really is our fault.
I wonder if it is a recent American management flaw to confuse activity metrics with outcome metrics? Like taking a course versus knowledge gained from the course; or worse, making a copy of a research paper versus reading and understanding the paper.
It doesn’t seem like the US wants *anyone* to win except the same damn arms producers who’ve *always* won! Wake up, people!!
The situation on the front looks serious for Ukraine. But Russia is also facing massive difficulties. The fact that it now also has to call on North Korean soldiers is just one symptom of several.
In the linked video, a German historian looks at the problem. He also includes the former Russian intelligence officer Igor Girkin as a source, who speaks of tactical successes by the Russian army, but otherwise categorises this year’s campaigns as a strategic defeat.
If you aren’t looking at conservative media online, you are missing the litany of shenanigans taking place with early voting and absentee ballots, from drop-off boxes being bombed to touch-screens that won’t let the voter choose Trump to cops shutting down early voting hours ahead of times in Red counties in PA (lawsuit got the time extended) to illegals voting. I’m not going to say 2020 was stolen. I am going to say that we have a serious election integrity problem in this country and the Dems are doing whatever they can to make it worse. (E.g., suing to keep admitted illegals on the voter roles in VA.)
I have seen in the past that people conflate registration fraud for voting. In other words, someone paid per new registration fills out a bunch of fake voter registration forms in order to get paid more. These are checked and found to be fraudulent. There are no votes cast on behalf of the fraudulent registrations.
Let’s just say “very few”, not “no votes.” You can’t know it’s zero. You can say “very few” as a guess and no one can contradict you. Say zero, and one illegal vote refutes you. The Free Press had a story of a foreign student at an American university who used his student ID to register, got a ballot, cast it, and then for some reason admitted his crime and tried to have his ballot dis-counted. He was told once the ballot had gone through the counting system it couldn’t be rescinded. His vote will count.
Now, OK, maybe the story is made up. We’ll see. But as we know with trans stories, things that “never happen” sometimes really do. And the more people say they never happen, the more often they do!
There are the usual human errors seen in every election, which do get corrected. But in the present atmosphere where such things are spun up by conspiracy theorists, they take on a dangerous narrative of dark forces at work from a democratic illuminati, working behind the scenes.
It would be helpful if folks on the right weren’t so gullible about rumors that get flogged by bloggers who are monetizing this crap.
Because “conservative media online” is such a dependable, reputable source of information.
*eyeroll*
When the WashPost and NYT have become ordure, where else are you gonna turn?
Fair question. Makes me ever more grateful for The Free Press.
An update on the shooting in Chicago’s West Rogers Park; the shooter is being charged with terrorism and hate crime.
This breaks my heart. I used to live near there and know people who went to synagogue in that neighborhood.
I’m glad the perp is being charged appropriately.
Of course administrators do nothing. They abet it. Theatre like this is good for the brand. If you want antisemites to come to your school — and who else would? — you need this stuff. TMU has nothing else going for it. It’s a jumped-up trade school.
Toronto Metropolitan University is the home of the soon-to-get-off-the-ground medical school that plans to admit 75% of its class using reverse racism criteria, which may include a tranche of “mature” students who could be white or Asian, if they can’t fill the 75% with black, indigenous, and queer students (which seems overwhelmingly likely since under Ontario law 95% of all the spots have to go to Ontario residents. No bearing the bushes in Africa to find children of plutocrats who will pay hefty foreign tuition fees.). Maturity (over 25) might be the saving grace of the place. Finally, some adults in the room.
Nellie Bowles:
“Kamala Harris stood outside the White House to deliver her closing pitch to America, looking amazing and elegant in a bright white cowl neck (not sorry! She’s a 10!)”
Our Lady of the Immaculate Election, of the Church of Perpetual Sublation – the wolf in sheep’s clothing – indeed has a fine taste in clothing, like this Hermès belt :
“Mini H belt buckle ; Reversible leather strap 24 mm”.
Might need a price check before purchasing that one.
Bats are so cool, and White-nose Syndrome is putting them at terrible risk. (Yes, I read all the other news, but I’d rather talk about bats.)
And Halloween! Ours was disappointing. Six well-costumed kids showed up for candy at about 6:15 PM. But by 6:30 it was pouring rain and everyone went home. No more kids came to our door. What are we going to do with all our candy? We’ll do what we always do—ration it to ourselves over the next few months a little at a time.
“Hoary Potter” — such a cute name!
Masih Alinejad for President. That’s a candidacy I would get behind.
I’d say we got the good side of the moon to look at, at least.
The USA could help Ukraine win, but will not. Biden listens to two pro-Russian scoundrels – William Burns and Jake Sullivan, who tell him not to cross Putin. The US administration gives only token aid and doesn’t allow strikes inside Russia to avoid “escalation”, claiming to be afraid of nuclear war. In fact, it is more afraid of disintegration of Russia in the case of its military defeat, as happened with the USSR after its defeat in Afghanistan. The obliteration of Ukraine, mass slaughter of Ukrainians and subsequent invasions of other European countries seems an acceptable price for preserving the stability of Russia, which the USA considers a vital asset rather than the deadly enemy it is.
Back in 1994, the USA and UK forced Ukraine to give up to Russia its vast nuclear arsenal, promising to defend it in return – the Budapest Memorandum. Then America happily forgot its pledge, letting Russia prey on Ukraine as it wishes. Ordinary Americans are unaware of this horrible backstabbing of an ally, but even those who learn about it don’t care much. The strong want to be buddies with the strong, and the weak are considered unimportant. Anyone wondering how the Holocaust was allowed to happen, and why Israel is being demonized now? That’s how, an identical case, excepts that Israel can defend herself for the time being.
The problem in Ukraine is the drip-feed nature of Western, especially American, support. Not enough to win or advance, on purpose, just enough to barely survive.
It really is our fault.
I wonder if it is a recent American management flaw to confuse activity metrics with outcome metrics? Like taking a course versus knowledge gained from the course; or worse, making a copy of a research paper versus reading and understanding the paper.
It’s even worse: https://www.politico.eu/article/volodymyr-zelenskyy-confirms-tomahawk-missiles-victory-plan-blasts-us-for-giving-away-secrets-ukraine-white-house-russia-war-leak/
It doesn’t seem like the US wants Ukraine to win.
It doesn’t seem like the US wants *anyone* to win except the same damn arms producers who’ve *always* won! Wake up, people!!
The situation on the front looks serious for Ukraine. But Russia is also facing massive difficulties. The fact that it now also has to call on North Korean soldiers is just one symptom of several.
In the linked video, a German historian looks at the problem. He also includes the former Russian intelligence officer Igor Girkin as a source, who speaks of tactical successes by the Russian army, but otherwise categorises this year’s campaigns as a strategic defeat.
Russia’s offensive is a ‘strategic FAILURE’ – and many more problems!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCgs5wyUygY
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igor_Girkin
If you aren’t looking at conservative media online, you are missing the litany of shenanigans taking place with early voting and absentee ballots, from drop-off boxes being bombed to touch-screens that won’t let the voter choose Trump to cops shutting down early voting hours ahead of times in Red counties in PA (lawsuit got the time extended) to illegals voting. I’m not going to say 2020 was stolen. I am going to say that we have a serious election integrity problem in this country and the Dems are doing whatever they can to make it worse. (E.g., suing to keep admitted illegals on the voter roles in VA.)
I have seen in the past that people conflate registration fraud for voting. In other words, someone paid per new registration fills out a bunch of fake voter registration forms in order to get paid more. These are checked and found to be fraudulent. There are no votes cast on behalf of the fraudulent registrations.
Let’s just say “very few”, not “no votes.” You can’t know it’s zero. You can say “very few” as a guess and no one can contradict you. Say zero, and one illegal vote refutes you. The Free Press had a story of a foreign student at an American university who used his student ID to register, got a ballot, cast it, and then for some reason admitted his crime and tried to have his ballot dis-counted. He was told once the ballot had gone through the counting system it couldn’t be rescinded. His vote will count.
Now, OK, maybe the story is made up. We’ll see. But as we know with trans stories, things that “never happen” sometimes really do. And the more people say they never happen, the more often they do!
I think this is relevant.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/01/politics/viral-incidents-spur-misleading-election-claims-invs/index.html
There are the usual human errors seen in every election, which do get corrected. But in the present atmosphere where such things are spun up by conspiracy theorists, they take on a dangerous narrative of dark forces at work from a democratic illuminati, working behind the scenes.
It would be helpful if folks on the right weren’t so gullible about rumors that get flogged by bloggers who are monetizing this crap.
Because “conservative media online” is such a dependable, reputable source of information.
*eyeroll*
When the WashPost and NYT have become ordure, where else are you gonna turn?
Fair question. Makes me ever more grateful for The Free Press.
An update on the shooting in Chicago’s West Rogers Park; the shooter is being charged with terrorism and hate crime.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/chicago-suspect-faces-terrorism-and-hate-crime-charges-after-shooting-near-synagogue-here-s-what-we-know/ar-AA1tjL45
This breaks my heart. I used to live near there and know people who went to synagogue in that neighborhood.
I’m glad the perp is being charged appropriately.
Of course administrators do nothing. They abet it. Theatre like this is good for the brand. If you want antisemites to come to your school — and who else would? — you need this stuff. TMU has nothing else going for it. It’s a jumped-up trade school.
Toronto Metropolitan University is the home of the soon-to-get-off-the-ground medical school that plans to admit 75% of its class using reverse racism criteria, which may include a tranche of “mature” students who could be white or Asian, if they can’t fill the 75% with black, indigenous, and queer students (which seems overwhelmingly likely since under Ontario law 95% of all the spots have to go to Ontario residents. No bearing the bushes in Africa to find children of plutocrats who will pay hefty foreign tuition fees.). Maturity (over 25) might be the saving grace of the place. Finally, some adults in the room.
Nellie Bowles:
“Kamala Harris stood outside the White House to deliver her closing pitch to America, looking amazing and elegant in a bright white cowl neck (not sorry! She’s a 10!)”
Our Lady of the Immaculate Election, of the Church of Perpetual Sublation – the wolf in sheep’s clothing – indeed has a fine taste in clothing, like this Hermès belt :
“Mini H belt buckle ; Reversible leather strap 24 mm”.
Might need a price check before purchasing that one.
Bats are so cool, and White-nose Syndrome is putting them at terrible risk. (Yes, I read all the other news, but I’d rather talk about bats.)
And Halloween! Ours was disappointing. Six well-costumed kids showed up for candy at about 6:15 PM. But by 6:30 it was pouring rain and everyone went home. No more kids came to our door. What are we going to do with all our candy? We’ll do what we always do—ration it to ourselves over the next few months a little at a time.
“Hoary Potter” — such a cute name!
Masih Alinejad for President. That’s a candidacy I would get behind.
I’d say we got the good side of the moon to look at, at least.
The USA could help Ukraine win, but will not. Biden listens to two pro-Russian scoundrels – William Burns and Jake Sullivan, who tell him not to cross Putin. The US administration gives only token aid and doesn’t allow strikes inside Russia to avoid “escalation”, claiming to be afraid of nuclear war. In fact, it is more afraid of disintegration of Russia in the case of its military defeat, as happened with the USSR after its defeat in Afghanistan. The obliteration of Ukraine, mass slaughter of Ukrainians and subsequent invasions of other European countries seems an acceptable price for preserving the stability of Russia, which the USA considers a vital asset rather than the deadly enemy it is.
Back in 1994, the USA and UK forced Ukraine to give up to Russia its vast nuclear arsenal, promising to defend it in return – the Budapest Memorandum. Then America happily forgot its pledge, letting Russia prey on Ukraine as it wishes. Ordinary Americans are unaware of this horrible backstabbing of an ally, but even those who learn about it don’t care much. The strong want to be buddies with the strong, and the weak are considered unimportant. Anyone wondering how the Holocaust was allowed to happen, and why Israel is being demonized now? That’s how, an identical case, excepts that Israel can defend herself for the time being.