Tuesday: Hili dialogue

July 23, 2024 • 6:45 am

Good morning on Tuesday, the Cruelest Day, July 23, 2024, and National Lemon Day.  You can keep lemons in your fridge for an entire year and it’s easy (this video shows you how):

 

It’s also National Vanilla Ice Cream Day, and Peanut Butter and Chocolate Day, a combination best sampled in Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups. 

Readers are welcome to mark notable events, births, or deaths on this day by consulting the July 23 Wikipedia page.

Da Nooz:

*There’s no doubt that Harris is going to be the Democratic candidate now, as the NYT implies when listing the “key endorsements” she gets:

Vice President Kamala Harris on Monday made her first public appearance since President Biden dropped his re-election bid and endorsed her, praising Mr. Biden’s “deep love of our country” as she moved swiftly to clear a path to the Democratic presidential nomination.

Ms. Harris spoke at a morning event at the White House after scooping up endorsements from would-be challengers, including Governors JB Pritzker of Illinois, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, Andy Beshear of Kentucky, Wes Moore of Maryland, Tim Walz of Minnesota and Tony Evers of Wisconsin. Several of them have been talked about as possible running mates.

She faces the daunting challenges of taking over Mr. Biden’s campaign structure, fending off opposition to her rise to the top of the ticket and defining herself for the American public before Republicans and their nominee, former President Donald J. Trump, do.

The vice president started off with a tremendous burst of excitement from Democrats willing to put aside past doubts about her. Party members are anxious to end the divisions that have torn the party apart in the weeks since Mr. Biden’s halting debate performance persuaded many that he should not remain in the race.

While some party leaders like former President Barack Obama and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi have not endorsed her, suggesting the need for a competition, Ms. Harris sought to defuse complaints of a coronation by emphasizing in a written statement on Sunday that she intended to “earn and win this nomination.”

Once again, although I’m a Democrat and have always voted that way, I would prefer a “competition”. Remember the days when eight Democrats or Republicans would duke it out onstage, whittling away the weaker candidates until it was all decided either right before the convention or at the convention?  I don’t think Harris should be automatically entitled to the nomination, though she does inherit Biden’s campaign contributions. Rather, I’d like to see them all struggle for the nomination by making their best case onstage. And I’d be rooting for Whitmer. But that’s a vain hope; Harris has it locked up.

*NYT columnists and writers rated the “10 best” Democratic candidates, rating them on electability and how exciting they were. Here are the results: my fave Whitmer tops everyone, though Shapiro and Kelly rank as marginally more likely to beat Trump. But Whitmer is not going to run.

Just the “most exciting and “most electable” candidates:

Whitmer: Most exciting

Ross Barkan Electable: 7 • Exciting: 7

Whitmer has won two tough elections in her home state, she’s got the “Big Gretch” Midwestern persona, and she could, like Harris, make history. Coastal Democrats already fawn over her cable TV appearances.

Josh Barro Electable: 7 • Exciting: 6

Whitmer has twice won races for governor in a swing state by a roughly 10-point margin both times. She is likable and down-to-earth, with a demonstrated ability to outrun “generic Democrat” in the Rust Belt. She’d be the ideal nominee for a race that’s likely to come down to Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Jamelle Bouie Electable: 7 • Exciting: 9

The governor of Michigan has a lot of fans (“Big Gretch”), and she is clearly a politician of presidential caliber. But I will not be surprised if she endorses Harris in short order as well.

Jane Coaston Electable: 3 • Exciting: 4

She’s a very successful politician in Michigan in part because the Michigan G.O.P. is a box of rabid cats locked in a closet. Not sure how she’d do nationally.

Ross Douthat Electable: 7 • Exciting: 7

Probably the sweet-spot candidate in terms of both exciting the party’s voters and winning the key swing states; she would almost surely win a secret ballot of party insiders.

Michelle Goldberg Electable: 7 • Exciting: 8

The incredibly effective and telegenic governor of a must-win state, Whitmer would be my dream candidate if we were starting from scratch. But we’re not, and besides, lots of candidates have looked amazing on paper but floundered on the national stage. She’d make a thrilling V.P. choice, though.

Patrick Healy Electable: 7 • Exciting: 8

Trump’s team worries a lot about Whitmer. She’s got a good record, political message and personal story, and she’s a fresh face with a Midwest base. She would not own Bidenomics and Gaza like Biden-Harris. But would her Michigan appeal scale up nationally? You don’t know till you know.

Pamela Paul Electable: 6 • Exciting: 8

Whitmer is moderate and reasonably likable, but she doesn’t come across as a superstar. Her politics are more attuned to the national electorate. I see her as a V.P. candidate to a candidate other than Harris or as a presidential candidate in 2028.

Shapiro: Most electable

Ross Barkan Electable: 7 • Exciting: 6

Shapiro won a huge victory in Pennsylvania, proving he knows how to stump in a swing state. He’s a popular center-left Democrat who’d be the nation’s first Jewish president. If he’s not the nominee, he’d be an ideal running mate; it helps that, unlike his fellow Pennsylvanian John Fetterman, Shapiro hasn’t picked too many fights with the left.

Josh Barro Electable: 7 • Exciting: 5

Shapiro and Whitmer are very similar on paper: swing-state governors with a strong demonstrated ability to appeal to voters in the middle and win, often by wide margins. Shapiro also impressively presided over a lightning-quick rebuild of damaged Interstate 95 in Philadelphia and showed sober leadership in the aftermath of the assassination attempt on Trump. A Whitmer-Shapiro ticket could make a lot of sense to win the Rust Belt.

Jamelle Bouie Electable: 8 • Exciting: 8

Shapiro is, next to Beshear, the other obvious choice to be Harris’s running mate. And with a real national fan base among Democrats, he could also probably beat Trump in his own right.

Jane Coaston Electable: 6 • Exciting: 4

Exceptionally normal. That’s a good thing.

Ross Douthat Electable: 7 • Exciting: 5

Maybe the most talented of the Democratic governors but in line behind Whitmer at the moment.

Michelle Goldberg Electable: 8 • Exciting: 7

He could help deliver the essential state of Pennsylvania, but his ardent support for Israel and criticism of pro-Gaza campus protests would reopen wounds in the Democratic Party that have lately started to heal.

Patrick Healy Electable: 7 • Exciting: 6

Trump advisers see him as formidable. Pennsylvania and Michigan are Democrats’ most urgent must-win states, and he could compete strongly against Trump in both. But would his popularity at home translate nationally? Also: He’s already endorsed Harris. Many top Democrats see him as her V.P. pick.

Pamela Paul Electable: 6 • Exciting: 6

Shapiro would be an excellent vice-presidential candidate, but given the unfortunate but real antisemitism on the left right now (as well as on the right), this may not be the right time for a Jewish Democratic presidential candidate. As a V.P. candidate, he could bring Democrats the swing state of Pennsylvania.

*The Washington Post has a useful article about where Harris stands on key issues, and I’m in line with her on most things, including climate change, the economy, and abortion (but can she effect any change in that given the Dobbs decision?).  But one issue worries me about her,. though it won’t worry others:

Israel and Gaza

A large part of a president’s job is dealing with foreign policy, and Harris is remarkably undefined on this front. But that could be to Democrats’ benefit, said Democratic strategist Matt Duss, because Biden’s low points in polling have come from issues largely tied to foreign policy. Biden’s staunch support for Israel, especially at the start of the war in Gaza, has been a particular wedge in the Democratic Party coalition.

In foreign policy circles, Harris is believed to have a more critical view of the Israeli government’s handling of the war in Gaza than Biden, even pushing to get lines about the need for humanitarian aid to Gaza in key speeches.

“We have also been clear that far too many innocent Palestinians have been killed, that Israel must do better to protect innocent civilians,” she said at an address earlier this year.

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Harris has been “pushing for a more sympathetic policy toward Palestinians,” Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.) said after Biden’s announcement Sunday, adding that she can “build a broad coalition around the issue.”

“Even if she doesn’t announce an intention to dramatically shift foreign policy, I think she’s going to have an easier time than Biden, because she hasn’t been the one driving it,” Duss said.

And here is where the Republicans are going to go after her:

The Border

Early in Biden’s presidency, Biden asked Harris to try to address the root problems of migration at the border by focusing on countries in Central and South America.

“Do not come. You will be turned back,” Harris told potential migrants heading to the U.S.-Mexican border during a Latin American trip in June 2021.

It is not clear what she accomplished. She came under criticism from border Democrats for not visiting the border sooner, and migrant crossings, until recently, have been at record highs under the Biden administration, though administration officials have emphasized that her purview was those underlying causes, not what to do with people once they arrived in the United States.

There’s a hot debate about why border crossings have been so high and whether Biden or Harris could do much about it. But polls and voter groups show voters blame Biden rather than Republicans, even though Biden has cast Republicans as unhelpful when they scuttled a bipartisan border security bill because Trump wanted to run on the issue.

“We will skewer her for her border performance,” said Stephen Moore, a Trump adviser.

If she wins, it will be interesting to see how she deals with the border, though I really do fear about her abandoning Israel. Not enough to vote for Trump, though!

*Everyone is going after Kimberly Cheatle, the director of the Secret Service because of the assassination attempt on Trump, and she was just grilled by Congress:

 Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle said Monday that her agency failed in its mission to protect former President Donald Trump during a highly contentious congressional hearing with lawmakers of both major political parties demanding she resign over security failures that allowed a gunman to scale a roof and open fire at a campaign rally.

In her first congressional hearing over the July 13 assassination attempt, Cheatle repeatedly angered lawmakers by evading questions, citing ongoing investigations. She called the attempt on Trump’s life the Secret Service’s “most significant operational failure” in decades. Cheatle acknowledged that the Secret Service was told about a suspicious person “between two and five times” before the shooting.

Yet, Cheatle gave no indication she intends to resign even as she said she takes “full responsibility” for any security lapses at the Pennsylvania rally. Cheatle vowed to “move heaven and earth” to ensure that nothing like it ever happens again.

“The Secret Service’s solemn mission is to protect our nation’s leaders. On July 13th, we failed,” Cheatle said.

Lawmakers peppered Cheatle with questions about how the gunman could get so close to the Republican presidential nominee when he was supposed to be carefully guarded and about why Trump was allowed to take the stage after local law enforcement had identified Thomas Matthew Crooks as suspicious.

. . . Asked about why there were no agents on the roof where the shooter was located or if the Secret Service used drones to monitor the area, Cheatle said she is still waiting for the investigation to play out, prompting groans and outbursts from members on the committee.

Yes, I know that the boss bears responsibility for her underlings, and that “the buck stops here.” But surely Cheatle didn’t micromanage the arrangements for Trump’s appearance. If she’s been a good director, and a factotum screwed up, on what basis should she resign. (Granted, if Trump were killed or seriously wounded, she’d have to resign, even though her responsibility would have been exactly the same.)  But when there’s a failure like this and it’s not due to an oversight of Cheatle, who didn’t write the playbook for the Secret Service, why is she supposed to resign? Perhaps someone can enlighten me here. For now, I’m a bit baffled by automatically firing someone for an error that they bore no responsibility for. Perhaps the buck doesn’t stop at the top.

*Finally, I’ll probably be writing less about American politics and more about other stuff for a while (and in August I won’t even be around to follow it); I’m finding it exhausting both intellectually and emotionally to follow the roller-coaster-ride that is Election Year, and I’m not any kind of pundit.

So instead of a news piece here, I just want to say that I feel really sorry for what Joe Biden has gone through.  Yes, I disagreed with a fair amount of what he did, but he was infinitely better than the Republican alternative, and now he surely feels cast aside (there were reports that he was angry and hurt when Democrats began asking him to resign).  Before the man is consigned to the judgment of history, let’s remember that he’s a human being, and a good one, and though he should have resigned earlier, we don’t know what it’s like being inside his skin.  I hope he can play some kind of role as “elder statesman” to the Democratic party, though he does seem ill and Obama has claimed the ES role some time ago.  Best of luck, Joe!

Here is Biden’s letter of resignation, curiously sent on his personal stationery rather than Presidential stationery, even though it’s a Presidential letter:

Biden probably feels like this:

Meanwhile in Dobrzyn, Hili wants a night out on the tiles:

A: Are you coming home?
Hili: No, I slept all day, it’s time for some activity.
In Polish:
Ja: Wracasz do domu?
Hili: Nie, spałam cały dzień, pora na trochę aktywności.

And a picture of Baby Kulka:

*******************

From The Dodo Pet:

From Cat Memes:

From Jesus of the Day. That tomato needs exorcism!

There’s nothing from Masih today, but here’s something that J. K. Rowling retweeted. By “men”, I think Grover means transgender women.

From my feed:

From Barry: a thinking cat!

From Malcolm: a FB video of a fishing cat (Prionailurus viverrinus):

Yep, they are very strong:

From the Auschwitz Memorial, one that I retweeted:

Two tweets from Dr. Cobb. The first one he calls “Shellebrity”:

The Big Chill in French government:

88 thoughts on “Tuesday: Hili dialogue”

  1. By “men” I think Sal Grover means men. What the Victoria government means I’m not entirely sure.

  2. TL;DW :

    3% salt, *no iodine* (e.g. Redmond’s Real Salt)
    Washed whole organic (ideally) lemons
    Few days at room T
    Fridge thereafter

    Fermented lemons – this might be a brilliant idea … ‘spose limes too… not sure about a whole year’s worth, but still… this is a good problem to solve….

    The game is afoot…

    1. I looked at the comments on the video. I like much better the idea of juicing the fruit and freezing the juice. I will see if this works with limes.

      1. Gonna try that again too – from way back…

        … the rind is of interest here too, and we’ll just have to see…

    2. I make preserved lemons all the time. They last over a year in the fridge.
      Really good in Middle Eastern recipes

      2. Also preserved limes (or lemons as a substitute) are used in Chinese cuisine. Good to make a savoury chutney/sauce/gravy wth lots of garlic, for sweet and sour duck or chicken.

        1. Wow, have gotta make a canning jar of preserved limes now too!
          Btw, I usually throw in a couple of whole cloves, black peppercorns, and maybe a cinnamon stick for good measure.

    3. I’m telling you. Between you and Leslie there’s nothing one or both of you don’t possess superior knowledge about. Great minds, both of you.

          1. Thank you! You don’t want to know what I was doing when they taught grammar in junior high

  3. I am about to unsubscribe from Bari’s “The Free Press” after this morning’s anemic attempt at punditry by Oliver Wiseman. What have you contributed to the world, Oliver? Please leave Uncle Joe alone. Ever had Covid, Oliver? At age 80? Ever enjoyed the Paxlovid experience? Ever seen a world you had spent your life building, suddenly turn upside down?

    Bari, you were always so good, particularly in identifying the Left in Anti-semitism…i did and do continue to disagree with you on the covid origins, but in growing TFP, I think that some of the non serious punditry for pundity’s sake has embedded itself. I would love to see you keep your focus on Israel and anti-semitism. It is so good to have your interviews and trusted references. And leave the growth to organs like the nyt which you left. In an hostile interview yesterday on cnbc, VC Vinod Khosla who is bucking much of the Silicon Valley leadership which is going over to Trump, talked about the importance of values separate from profits in his opposition to Trump.

    1. Bari’s been kinda disappointing since COVID. I think she’s spending too much time outside her wheelhouse and has fallen victim to audience capture to a degree that surprised me. TBF though, ever since she moved to the NYT from the WSJ she was forced to eat an unreasonable quantity of unreasonable leftist bullshit. I’ve seen Jewish friends undergo more radical transformations in the last decade or so.

      1. Thanks Graham….”forced to eat an unreasonable quantity of unreasonable bullshit”…I like it!

    2. The Free Press is covering the stories that other news media have a nudge nudge, wink wink agreement not to cover. It’s a national treasure.

  4. That video of the fishing cat kittens hunting water plants was fantastic. The close-up shots of their eyes as they’re taking in the newness of the water and the world were wonderful.

  5. The strong ant picture is really a bit of subterfuge that I’ve seen before. The ant is simply hanging upside down, and then the picture is flipped.

      1. I was told by a physics major in college that ants possess the most/greatest biomass of any species on earth. I was a non science major and believed him. Any truth to that? (I think he meant of species that swim, crawl, walk about). Oh, and fly.

    4. I have seen an ant carrying a dead honey bee. It was a struggle, though. When the bee fell off, the ant didn’t manage to get it back into position (at least as long as I watched). The picture I made of that scene unfortunately is far less “picturesque” than the fake weight-lifter ant, and grainy on top of it.

  6. I think Cheatle should resign. From a protection standpoint the Secret Service has one job: to stop people from injuring their protectees. They failed at this on July 13, and Cheatle admits that. She also says she is accountable, which I agree with. What does that accountability mean, though? Her shrugging her shoulders and saying, “My Bad”? She is involved and has ultimate responsibility for personnel choices, and, if those choices are bad—as it would appear they were—she needs to go. (By the way, it hardly matters how serious Trump’s wound was; the bullet was potentially fatal.)

    I would say her testimony yesterday is sufficient to do her in, but, honestly, lying and obfuscating is this Admin’s best practice for Congressional testimony.

    UPDATE: Nancy Mace has filed a motion to impeach Cheatle. This may be the first impeachment in eight years that has a chance of passing both Houses.

    2. The Toronto Sun says she has resigned.
      (All of you probably know that by now.)

  7. Why in a million years would anyone care what giga-grifter Dave “lying-for-dollars” Rubin posts, says, or thinks, on any topic whatsoever? He is as full of crap and nonsense as Candace Owens. They’re Alex Jones-level grifters and frauds.

    1. I believe it was intended to be humorous. I found it such. Relieve a little of the tension of these times?

    2. Rubin will suck the most putrescent, choad-like, uncircumcised dong in the history of the human history if he thinks it’ll boost his alt-right social media score and make him a buck.

  8. I watched some of the Congressional hearings on the Secret Service. As many Congresspeople on both sides of the aisle notes, Cheatle’s performance was cringeworthy at best; she was evasive, deceptive, and made no effort to inform the committee. I would fire her immediately if it were in my power, for her obfuscation and lack of honesty and clarity during the aftermath of the shooting. For example she had said earlier that the almost-flat roof was too sloped to put agents on it, while a more sloped roof on the neighboring building did have agents.

    One of the Congresspersons at the hearing said her testimony was the worst he had ever heard on any issue. That’s hyperbole, but it certainly ranks very high on any list of “Worst Congressional testimonies”. The frustration was bipartisan.

    1. Well, I have to admit that I didn’t watch the testimony; my opinion was based simply on the fact that if the SS followed the rules, then she bore no responsibility. But if she was evasive and did not promise to investigate and change the system to make this less likely to happen again, then yes, she should be fired.

    3. I watched some of it. The interrogators exhibited very little decorum, which was sort of embarrassing.
      Cheatle, on the other hand, was not at all interested in answering any of their legitimate questions. She acted like she is untouchable. She probably is. As a member of the management aristocracy, she will surely be offered a high paying job at a company that lobbies the DNC heavily.

  9. Harris is the cringiest of DEI cringe. There was a split second when Biden withdrew in which I thought maybe I could cast my vote Blue. That hope died with Biden’s and the Clintons’ endorsements of Harris. I plan to vote for Trump. I’m not sure what he could do at this point to change my mind. I enjoy his political incorrectness now. After seeing his instinctive courage upon being shot, I’ve been flipped. Red-pilled. Prior to that, I was planning on just not voting.

    More and more, it seems the Democratic Party is the party of the Deep, Administrative, Security State — the Party of censorship and DEI. I’m no populist or MAGA, I’m non-partisan and a classical liberal. But the Democratic Party is no longer the Party of the people. It’s the Party of posturing and middle-class power games. Nothing convinced me more of this than being at Harvard for the last four years.

    Something that does give me pause is a tweet by Larry Summers, who has said that Trump’s policies will be economically disastrous for many. OK, let’s talk about that. I need to see how. I need a reason to do anything but distrust the Democrats.

    For now, I’m with Trump.

    1. So you won’t vote for any Democrat because the entire Party is not of the People…yet you’ll vote for Donald Trump…because he didn’t cry?

      1. Dear ChasCPeterson,

        Did you not read my comment in which I stated that I was hopeful that there might be a Blue candidate worth voting for? Harris just isn’t it.

        I do not appreciate the incivility from you.

        Best,
        roz

      2. Roz is right; your comment was uncivil whether or not you agreed with it. I would urge you to apologize to her.

        Things are going to heat up as the election approaches, but I want to tell people that they should refrain from being uncivil to other commenters, even if what they say about the commenters is annoying. I want to keep things civil around here.

        1. Understood.
          If snark is uncivil, then guilty as charged.
          I will not apologize to roz; my honest reaction to zyr comment was far less civil than the trying-to-be-funny response I posted.
          But I will shut up.

    2. If I were an American there’s no way I’d vote for Kamala Harris. I find her repellent. She’s even further left than Biden, who didn’t do a very good job either.

      1. She’s far from my first choice, but she’s not interested in turning America into a supersized, far more theocratic version of Hungary. She’s not a wannabe mob boss who kowtows to Putin & ‘Lil Kim.

    3. Presumably you’ve heard of these Trump proposals. What effect do you think they’ll have on the economy, inflation, deficit & debt? Here is a sampling:

      1. 10% tariff on imported goods. Will increase inflation, be regressive, likely start trade wars, be equivalent to 100s of billions in tax increases. Trump seems to be convinced that exporting nations pay the tariffs…

      2. Tax policy – would make permanent tax cuts passed in his administration. Given that he has absolutely no plan to pay for them, they would add several more trillions to national debt.

      3. Deport millions of immigrants with no apparent regard for the effect on a tight labor market. It is easy to envision a sharp rise in inflation as businesses have to raise wages as they compete for fewer and fewer workers.

      4. The consequences of climate change are getting increasing expensive. Try to buy insurance in Florida. Trump’s proposal is “Drill, baby, drill.”

      1. Charles, I am a free-market small-l libertarian at heart, as I disagree with that party on open borders.
        There is no daylight between the Biden and the Trump one on tariffs; as you know, a 100% tariff on new electric vehicles imported from China is now enacted. I’m against all tariffs as they are not paid by the companies or the countries, they are paid by us, the consumer. Yes, even if one country enacts tariffs against US goods, I’m still in favor of us not doing the same. There’s a fairly simple economic proof of this.
        I’d be OK with the tax cuts (more money in our pockets) if government spending was cut accordingly.
        Thanks for bringing up the immigration / labor market item. This is a concrete argument as to why immigration is important, instead of the current head-in-the sand emotional approach “Tearing families apart! Danger in their home country!”. I’m not in favor of open borders, but a strong vetting process and controlled, legal way for people to enter this country and work and pay taxes is something I’d like to see. The current catch and release asylum process does not work for this. Let’s fix this. Many would argue that higher wages in a tight labor market helps the American worker; this is Trump’s position and until recently the union-supported Democrat position. I’m in favor of enhanced competition within the workforce via the influx of new workers, which creates winners and losers based on productivity.

        1. Darryl,
          It appears we are in substantial agreement on immigration. On tax cuts, someone will have to come up with a politically viable place to cut spending before any cuts are proposed and the cuts should NOT be focused on corps and the top 1%.
          I was (and still am) mystified why Biden kept the tariffs on China trade. The rationale I’ve seen is that China had committed to importing more US goods and had reneged on that commitment. Like you, still not a fan of keeping the tariffs in place. That said, Trump’s proposal is for 10% tariffs on all imports. I wouldn’t expect Canada, Mexico, Japan, and the EU (and others) to take that lying down.
          Since Trump does not accept the reality of human caused climate change, he can’t be expected to have any policies to mitigate its short and long term economic consequences, never mind the human costs. I find that downright terrifying.

      2. If you really want to fight climate change, you ought to be against immigration of people from low-emissions-per-capita societies (i.e. poor ones) into the United States. An immigrant’s personal emissions skyrocket as soon as he buys a car (even an old clunker) and wants air conditioning and beef and fresh vegetables out of season and reliable internet and electric light after dark and to buy all the things that are manufactured in and transported from China with fossil fuels but which he had to do without at home.

        You see, fighting climate change consists chiefly of doing without, like wartime rationing. Buying an electric car is trivial by comparison to fewer people eating less and buying fewer things over their lifetimes. There is very little more the American President, whoever s/he is, or the head of government of any rich country can do to fight climate change than all of them have already done. We can’t offshore everything. Stopping drilling for oil will just make gasoline more expensive but demand for energy is neither elastic nor substitutable.

        Climate change is now a Made-in-China-and-India policy problem and they don’t care.

    4. I worry about Harris’s DEI tendencies also. However, when I compare the dangers of DEI (which I believe has peaked and is now on the long, slow slide into the dustbin of bad ideas) versus the authoritarianism that I see surrounding Trump and Trumpism, I am much more fearful of the later. I also feel Trump will predictably do what is best for Trump and that will often not be what is good for the country. I will happily vote for Harris even though I too would prefer Whitmer. I don’t think she will be an option however.

      1. The problem with the “Trump is an authoritarian” argument is that no one is actually afraid of him. People are not afraid to cross him.

        Figures like Obama, Pelosi, and even HRC inspire much more fear. No one *ever* crosses these three.

        1. I would disagree. It appears to me that every Republican official is scared that they will be primaried if they so much as disagree with him. I do not see the same type of fear generated by your other examples.

          1. Mitt Romney retold how Trump gave a speech to prominent Republicans. As soon as he left, everyone mocked his stupidity. But nobody would confront him in person.

            Trump can intimidate people much more capable than himself, and humiliate them too. Remember how crowds laughed when he mocked Jeb Bush for claiming to be tough or hinted that Marco Rubio had a small penis?

    5. Harris is definitely not my first choice but I find Trump far more problematic. It’s unclear how directly Trump was involved in the attempt to overthrow a free and fair election but there is no doubt he encouraged the conditions whereby it could happen. And when it was attempted he clearly did little to discourage it. I strongly believe that had it succeeded he would have gone along without qualm.

      Trump never says he wants to be a dictator (except “…on day one.”) but his endless appeals to emotion set up the conditions for it. I have already read of some in the maga crowd asserting that because he was “cheated” in 2020 Trump deserves another 8 years of presidency. It seems clear to me they don’t just want another 8 years. They want a dictatorship that can force policies that they don’t think should have to compete in the marketplace of ideas.

      If Trump is elected their will be more Trumpers in positions of power and many WILL try to keep him in power beyond four years and they will do a better job next time. And Trump will continue his appeals to emotion that strengthen the conditions for it without ever directly saying he wants to be dictator. I have no idea how likely it is that they could succeed but if they were to, I don’t think Trump would have any problem with it.

      Some of Trumps policy suggestions are arguably good, many to me seem arguably quite bad. But mostly I just don’t think we should flirt with a wannabe dictator with a large cult following.

    6. Welp. That didn’t take long.

      On my way to work this morning, I saw the first new bumper sticker in several months: “Harris? Not even with yours” (Jersey turnpike near Linden/Elizabeth) No picture, unfortunately (the truck it was on was a sight in and of itself), as I was driving.

      For those that don’t know the expression, it a a crude disparagement.

    7. The Ukraine and NATO issues alone, along with his desire to eliminate most environmental regulations and gut the EPA, a la Reagan, are enough to convince me that Trump is truly dangerous for the US and the world.

    8. Roz, I appreciate your forthrightness, particularly in this less-than-Trump-friendly crowd. I see a lot of people rallying around Harris; they are mostly ignoring her weaknesses and exaggerating her strengths. This is familiar. We can call it a replay of Trump 2016, when many on the Right, when faced with his nomination, found ways to dispel the cognitive dissonance.

      Both parties are ignoring the danger of the national debt. Both are overly fond of military conflict, though for different reasons. (Trump, despite his brashness, seems more circumspect here; the conventional Republicans are not.) The Democrats have stolen from the Republicans their infatuation with the intelligence apparatus; the Republicans will snatch it back if they gain power. Leadership in both parties lie and deceive regularly for perceived political advantage. Both thrive on dividing the public and encouraging antagonism, but the Democrats rile me more on this: Trump rarely pretends to be a uniter.

      I don’t use the term “Deep State” because it encourages many to put plugs in their ears, but having worked in that entity, I share your concerns. The executive branch bureaucracy has, over the last few decades, grown increasingly powerful and disconnected from accountability to either the legislative branch, the voters, and, during Trump’s term, even to the president for whom they work. (So much for Trump the powerful autocrat.) Democrats now like this because the bureaucrats tend to be liberal and share priorities with their party, but this is an extraordinarily short-sighted view. Government by the people cannot survive if we continually shift power to unaccountable bureaucracies. I, thus, welcome Supreme Court rulings to rein in that bureaucracy.

      Other issues that we discuss here frequently—DEI, gender, ways of knowing, and so on—are often dismissed with a wave of the hand as “culture war” issues or idiocies that will soon pass. This is also short sighted. These issues, along with assaults on free speech and due process, are foundational. They each involve the undermining and overthrow of liberal principles that have operated in the West for centuries. Blithely accepting the increasingly authoritarian imposition of this insanity in the name of defeating Trump is absurd. Entrench this mindset into the laws and regulations through another couple of Administrations and this country will not be remotely like that into which many of us were born.

      I’m curious: do you see anyone out there who you would draft into the presidency?

    9. Does character count for something, in your book? It’s still shocking to me that anyone would vote for someone who is an adjudicated rapist, of very questionable character, and over whose head hangs a cloud of questions about his sordid past. Google Katie Johnson and Trump. Even McDonalds wouldn’t hire someone around whom swirled a lot of murmurs of his abusive nature. This is definitely one case where there’s smoke there’s fire.

      I don’t have a dog in this fight. I’m just mystified by Trump supporters. Even a global poll revealed his deep unpopularity.

      1. Donald Trump was not “adjudicated” of rape, even by the balance-of-evidence standards of a civil suit. So the jury verdict needs to be interpreted as “more likely than not” he did not rape that woman. They found that he “more likely than not” did do other things on that occasion, which you did not mention.

    10. These don’t seem like coherent reasons to me. Dismissing Harris as DEI dismisses the fact that as a successful prosecutor and senator she’s already more qualified to be President than Trump was in 2016.

      Trump was certainly canny enough to pose for an excellent photo before getting whisked away after receiving a light injury on his ear, but that doesn’t seem like a great reason to vote for him.

      As for the vague ramblings about the “deep state,” what did Trump do about this in his first term? And what does he propose to do about it in his second, aside from filling various civil service positions with party hacks? “Deep state” is a phrase the right wing uses to describe the parts of government that don’t immediately bend to its will, but when in power the right is perfectly happy to have a large administrative state when it’s in power.

      We saw that in his four years as President that Trump was lazy, passed little legislation of consequence aside from a tax cut for the rich, tried to repeal the ACA, and failed to do anything transformative about immigration. If returned to power he will likely be more vengeful but still feckless and chaotic.

    11. Not a US citizen.
      Your choices ARE difficult and even I can appreciate the problem. So many “opinionated experts” and yelling from the sidelines. I thought, and please ignore if this is just another “OE”… you need a list for each party for and against… and after making it, consider each point. For instance, DEI support seems to be waning can you give this less weight and mark it down on the Dem score. Harris has been ineffectual with immigration what has she to say about that now and do you believe it, in part, none of it.
      The next was easy low fruit.(bias alert)
      Trump is a misogynist, shadowy rapist, felon, very Presidential 😁 what weight position would you give that on the Rep score. Carrying on, a family guy but with hooks, promotes family into decision making appointments. Elitism? anti meritocracy?
      Something along those lines and again I’m glad I don’t have to decide, you have some months ahead to adjust scores. Maybe this will help organise a path through the minefield.

      Personally, at bottom for outsiders what happens in US elections bears down on most of us in the west and for democracy. We can’t escape it. Good luck for all of us I say.
      I’m glad also our host is taking leave of US politics, a rest is also good.

  10. Given everything we know, it is a deep mystery to me why Biden pushed for an early debate with Trump. This turned out to be a fatal error.

    Does anybody have a hypothesis?

    1. One characteristic of dementia is that the sufferer may not realize he has it. The farther along it gets, the more self awareness fails.

      His inability to see how badly he performed at the debate suggests his self awareness is definitely failing.

      1. YES! Self awareness goes on a pretty steep slide, unbeknownst to the person him/herself.
        D.A.
        NYC

    2. The NYT explained that Biden was behind in the polls and expected to win. This makes sense without hindsight bias. Trump had said shocking things in previous debates that might turn off voters. And the debate format now included fact-checkers and muted microphones to stave off Trump’s dirty tactics.

    3. Having an early debate gives the campaign more time to recover in case something goes wrong.

  11. Lysander, the debate with Trump must have been ol’ belligerent Joe thinking he could still do it, or maybe his handlers wanting to see if he could. Thank gott it was early – if he waited until after the convention, the result would have been horrendous. For his resignation I really wish that he had addressed the American people directly with a speech rather than on X.
    Dr. Coyne, I tend to agree with you about Cheatle – obviously she did not manage the security at the event. It’s like when Starbucks gets in trouble because some idiot puts the wrong name on a cup. On the other hand, her testimony was not forthright and open, so for me that’s more of the reason.

    1. I understand that Biden has Covid. Respiratory illness that impacts speaking ability.

  13. Biden’s withdrawal, while necessary, is sad for him and his family. I wish him well.

    Kamala Harris. I understand that the Democrats are trying to right the ship as quickly as possible, but righting the ship quickly and anointing Ms. Harris as the de facto nominee may not be the best way to achieve victory. It’s certainly not the most democratic (small d) way to choose a nominee. The desire to “normalize” the situation may not work out in the end. I would much rather see the nominees vetted in televised town halls in advance of the convention, and in competition at the convention itself. Executing a more democratic process in a professional and orderly fashion would lend credibility to the choice of candidate and, perhaps, produce a better outcome in the end.

    And, yes, I am concerned about Harris’s positions on Gaza and Israel. Jewish commentators are also concerned. The Forward, as well as the English-language Israeli web sites, are hashing out her positives and negatives. If there were some town halls with sharp questioners, we could become better informed of her positions—if she even has them. I have found her to be hard to pin down.

  15. I’m not a fan of Harris and really don’t like that she is the nominee without actually winning the nomination. In fact, I kinda can’t stand her. There are a lot of things about the Democrats I really can’t stand. There are a lot of very important criticisms that need to be made of the Democratic Party. And yet, these things just don’t matter in comparison to the threat the Republicans pose. I want to live in a country where you can really dislike the party in charge and still have your freedoms. I’m 100% behind the Democrats and I really hope enough other people are.

    1. I completely agree with this. I’ll hold my nose and vote for Harris. Trump and a Project 2025 future is simply not an option.

      I really do not understand supposed “swing” voters. Either you like (or love) Trump and support what the Republicans are planning to do to this country, which they’ve been pretty clear about, or you do not. In the latter case, you have to vote for whomever the Democrats nominate.

      A Harris presidency might be annoying but it would be survivable. The Republican alternative may not be.

      1. Trump has nothing to do with Project 2025.

        Swing voters may recognise the media bias against Trump and seek to understand what he’s actually likely to do if elected, and decide their votes based on that. They don’t have to like him to decide whether he’s a better or worse choice than Harris.

        1. Six of Trump’s former Cabinet secretaries helped write or collaborated on the project’s playbook. Four people Trump nominated as ambassadors were also involved, and several enforcers of his immigration crackdown. Approximately 20 pages are credited to his first deputy chief of staff. At least 140 people who worked in the Trump administration had a hand in Project 2025.

          Saying that Trump himself didn’t write any of it is pointless, since Trump neither writes or reads much. The facts of the matter is that the Project is in prefect ideological conformity with Trump’s first administration, and his second bodes to carry on in the same style.

        2. The 2025 plan is the latest iteration of what originated in 1981 when it was called “the Mandate for Leadership Series”. Sorry I haven’t the tech skills to provide citations or links. Look it up. It’s nothing new. It’s like a conservative wish list and various Republican presidents have incorporated bits of it into their agenda over the years (beginning with Reagan), but it’s not quite the boogey monster the media is trying to scare people with. It’s a list of suggestions, desires, etc set out by — as everyone by now knows — the Heritage Foundation.

  16. Regarding Cheatle and resignation: Jerry’s question is quite reasonable from the perspective of most professions. However, there is a different ethos among professionals who are authorized to use deadly force and whose lives regularly depend not only on their own competence but on the competence of those around them. This ethos can be most clearly heard in the US Navy’s formulation: Commander So-and-So was relieved due to “loss of confidence” in his ability to command. Firings and resignations of leadership in these professions can seem quick and not always fair when looked at from the perspective of an individual, but the organization matters more than does an individual leader. One should not ask people to put their lives on the line if they are not fully confident that the leadership up and down the chain is competent and has their backs.

    Performance surrounding the Trump assassination attempt suggests to me multiple breakdowns in the organization—be it hiring, training, equipping, coordinating, workplace climate, history of individual accountability and responsiveness to subordinate concerns about any of the above. Still, I would have wanted to see a formal, independent investigation before calling for the removal of Cheatle. (It is important to keep in mind that, as with drunk drivers, the first time that one is caught is rarely the first time that one has offended. There is likely a pattern of problems here, which is what an investigation would seek to reveal.) Then we had Cheatle’s “sloped roof” comment to ABC News; the hearing was also a disaster. She either is not leadership material or she is choking on a tight leash placed on her by this Administration, which is another way to say that she is not leadership material for her type of position.

  17. You wrote “Executing a more democratic process in a professional and orderly fashion would lend credibility to the choice of candidate…”
    Agree absolutely. Credibility, that is what the Democrats need and they still don’t have. And Trump will be hammering them on Bidens’ lack of fitness and the cover-up. I don’t know what a second Trump term will be like but their are enough indicators that point in a autocratic direction. But I don’t know for sure, and right now I don’t trust the Dems either. They have not made me want to vote for them, even though I won’t vote for Trump. And that lack of enthusiasm isn’t the Republicans doing.
    I think an open convention would be difficult but could really give us a feeling of hope.

  18. Sorry, but I disagree with your assessment of both Harris and Trump.
    Harris had a limited role the past four years as most VPs do.

    I disagree with most of the Republican party platforms, but even if I agreed with them I could never vote for Trump. His role in January 6, where I think he would have been happy to see Mike Pence and others assaulted or worse, was repugnant and disqualifying. His refusal to accept the results of the last election and to welcome the new president to the White House was disgusting and petty.
    At that time he had advisors who would tell him “no”. He has learned one lesson, to surround himself with yes-men. We need some of that “deep state” to protect our democracy.
    You may have spent the last four years at Harvard, but I have spent the last 30+ in an area that went from light blue, to purple, to deep red. Trump has brought out the most mean spirited and vulgar aspects of people. And it is not a good thing.

    2. Well said Lab Gurl! It’s amazing how many people have selective amnesia about January 6.

      1. Selective amnesia about 1/6, the Covid response, Putin philanthropy, Zelensky attempted quid pro quo, everyday chaos while doing nothing substantially, tax cuts for the richest people and corporations which skyrocketed the debt, trying to abolish Obamacare, making million$ off the Presidency, sabotaging the Iraq withdrawal, separating migrant children from their parents, appointing 3 theocrats to SCOTUS, Mexico paying for a border wall, getting rid of Roe v. Wade, and finally, don’t forget or ignore the ongoing racism, misogyny, hatred and the politics of retribution (vermin, anyone?).

        Even with the apparent amnesia, I have a strong feeling Trump’s Presidential bid is doomed, and in effect, Biden will have beaten him twice.

  19. Regarding the border, I would advise Harris to say (1) That compared to this time in 2019, the heyday of the Trump administration, border crossings have significantly decreased, (2) an immigration bill with bipartisan support was recently torpedoed because of Trump’s selfish interference, and (3) though she had limited power as VP to resolve the border crisis, as President she will fight to push through the aforesaid bill and provide a solution more effective than trying to perform mass deportations.

  21. The NYT columnists’ graph shows a y-axis labeled “exciting” and “meh.” It is reasonable to prudently assume that this reflects the (“bread and circuses”) mindset of the majority of the electorate. Would that the y-axis were labeled “competent”/”knowledgeable” (in foreign affairs, economics, science). (Am reminded that the “E of “TED” stands for “Entertainment,” not “Education.”)

  22. Reading through all the comments, I am inclined to think that, to some extent, the country has become inured to the utter BS and chaos that comes with Trump. We shouldn’t lose sight of the fact that this man is completely unfit to be President, in so many ways.

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