It’s “common knowledge” that in the current conflict between Hamas and Israel, younger Americans (say, below 30), tend to favor Palestine, while older ones favor Israel. And that’s what I’ve thought for a long time—until I saw this poll highlighted at the Elder of Ziyon site. The poll, taken by by Harvard’s Center for American Political Studies collaborating with the Harris organization, was done by legitimate organizations, and for me it paints a more optimistic picture of Americans’ views about Israel. And that even includes young people. There’s a lot of different questions asked that I haven’t discussed here, but I’ll concentrate on the news on Israel, throwing in a bit of polling on Biden and Trump.
The Harvard/Harris polls’s pdf is here(or click to read):
These figures are reproduced at the Elder of Ziyon site, but I used the Harris/Harvard originals for clarity. Click the photos to enlarge them, and note that figures are often broken down by age, political affiliation, and viewpoint at the bottom.
Most voters, even young ones, tend to both support Israel and feel that Israel is trying to minimize civilian casualties. That’s far from a “genocide” view, though voters under 24 show substantially weaker support for Israel. Over that age support rises strongly, and is pretty much bipartisan.
The figure below surprised me, since I thought most people would favor a conditional ceasefire even when Hamas was still in nominal power and when not all of the hostages had been released. Note below that the GOP takes a harder line than do the Democrats:
Who should administer Gaza after the war? On the left, a big majority say it shouldn’t be Hamas, but notice the large age effect: older people are appreciably less willing to let Hamas run the territory. On the right, choosing between Israel, the PA or some new Arab authority to run Gaza, it’s pretty much a three-way split, but Israel is the plurality vote overall.
Given Biden’s opposition to a “red line” Israeli invasion of Rafah, this result surprised me too, but the stand is biparisan, and the majority holds with age, though the hard-line position increases with age:
Here the split is closer, but still, even in most age groups a majority of people say that the Biden administration “not giving weapons to Israel” (actually, it’s just bombs, I think) both gives confidence to Hamas and hurts the hostage negotiations. Given this, I’m also surprised that more Americans, including Biden, aren’t making a strong call for Hamas to surrender completely and give back all the hostages. If only there were such a world. . . .
Here we have a majority of Americans opposing Biden’s previous stand (it seems to change from day to day) that Israel entering Rafah should prevent the U.S. from giving some weapons to Israel. Again, The GOP takes a harder line (most Dems, in fact, favor withholding weapons), but so do older people, though the age effect isn’t huge:
To me the question on the left is pretty clear cut, but blame for Hamas is bipartisan—again with older people (over 25) putting more of the blame on Hamas. On the right, Democrats believe the accuracy of Hamas’s casualty figures far more than do Republicans, and so do people under 44. Given the recent revisions on women and children by the UN versus the Hamas figures, I expect that these views would be somewhat different now.
Transitioning to Biden, there’s a big split (as expected) between Democrats and Republicans on whether Biden’s policy on Israel is based more on his perception of American interests versus his desire to take the right stand to be elected. (Actually, the question combines both views in the “re-election” bit.) Most Americans are cynics on this issue, but only by 6%, and Democrats take the “national interest” part far more than do Republicans.
Overall, as a supporter of Israel I’m pleased with these results, and with Americans’ refusal to be gulled by Biden waffling.
Speaking of which, here are two graphs that don’t bode well for our current President in November’s elections, but it’s early days yet:
On the other hand, half of voters think that Trump would be a threat to democracy if elected, and 55% think that Trump has committed crimes (45% think he has not).
h/t: Malgorzata
Yes. I saw this as well. Biden is trying to play the conflict in Gaza both ways—sometimes favoring Israel, sometimes criticizing—but is probably increasing sympathies for Hamas, unfortunately. The real problem with Biden’s behavior is that he seems to be motivated by domestic politics—meaning the November election in the U.S.—and not by principle. If a terrorist group killed thousands of Americans in a mass casualty event and continued to lob rockets into populated border areas, say Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse, you can bet that the U.S. military would be tasked with eliminating the terrorists. The U.S. should be supporting Israel to do the same.
But if the U.S. population included large numbers of Canadian refugees resentful that their adoptive country stubbornly refused to enact gun control and free healthcare, and demanding the right to vote, a Democratic President might well find his hands tied with letting slip the dogs of war against their homeland. (It is assumed that all of those Canadians are natural Democratic voters but they might well stay home on Election Day if America bombed Toronto in retaliation for missiles coming across Lake Ontario.)
[Off topic]
Please do not let any missiles fall on the Martin House and the other Frank Lloyd Wright buildings in Buffalo!
Yes, well said Norman. And the electoral college may be a big factor in the mix. (Take a bow Michigan.)
Marx: “Seems like no matter what I do, I can’t get Americans to spit on their fundamental beliefs and clear-eyed commitment to facts and justice. They simply refuse to become NewMarxistRevolutionaries. ::::: sigh …..”
Support for Israel and Trump high in this poll. That would be a win/win for Israel as Trump would support Netanyahu 100% and sell Israel what ever they wanted. No restrictions on sales and Trump certainly wouldn’t have built that useless pier.
I don’t care for Trump but don’t see him as a threat to democracy. We do have separation of powers, and he was stymied in some of the things he wanted to do last time. The only power he would have is executive orders, the application of which should have been reduced at least a couple of presidents ago. I don’t see any mechanism that would allow him to do any of the bad things that I see predicted.
I saw Biden as a pretty normal democrat in the last election and was hopeful he could act as a unifier and a man of principle. However, I’m not seeing that, especially in the recent past. He seems to be directly pandering to certain constituencies to try to just get enough votes to gain reelection without considering longer term consequences, especially the budgetary consequences:
1. Transferring the debt of student loans from the person who signed the contract to the general taxpayer under the guise of Student Loan Forgiveness
2. Sucking up to the unions by imposing large taxes (tariffs) on goods imported from China. These will raise costs for a wide range of items but gets him large donations from union donors
3. Drawing down the SPR in hopes of reducing fuel prices at the expense of our long term security (they’re called “Strategic” for a reason)
4. Supporting pro Hamas protesters ala the “fine people on both sides” Trumpism, and trying to pander to the large Arab population in Michigan
Our great grandkids will be the ones paying for the effects of this huge debt, and blame is not just Biden’s but also Congress and the previous administration. It has to stop sometime.
The more I see President Biden talk the less I trust him, unfortunately. He has become in my eyes a shell of a president who is pulling out all the tricks to try to remain in power for some unknown reason.
You don’t see him as a threat to democracy?
1. He doesn’t believe the 2020 election was legitimate.
2. He actively encouraged a mob to storm the Capitol to overturn the election.
3. He actively conspired to illegally overturn the results of the 2020 election in several states, and has been indicted for it.
4. He won’t commit to following the results of the 2024 election unless he wins.
5. He has said that he will act as a dictator on day one if he is elected.
5. He claims that, as president, he has absolute immunity from the law. The Supreme Court is actively considering whether or not this is true for anything he does. Do you really believe this court will put limits on what he would do if elected?
6. He has said he will appoint an Attorney General who will dismiss all charges against him if elected.
7. He has promised to prosecute President Joe Biden…for something.
8. He has threatened to use the U.S. military to control protests & demonstrations inside the U.S.
I could go on…and on…
But many of those things he says he wants to do, which you fear, he simply doesn’t have the power to do, including being a “dictator.” To address your last concern, (just because the use of the Army has some international relevance), the Army by law can’t be deployed on U.S. soil except to repel invasion or to put down insurrection when the Insurrection Act is invoked (as President Eisenhower did in Arkansas.) The Army commanders would have to violate their oath to uphold the Constitution in order to obey an unlawful order to deploy against a civilian demonstration or a riot…. or a rival political convention. My country’s soldiers have worked alongside yours for decades and we know it’s not in their culture to obey illegal orders and they would face severe punishment if they did.
On the subject of insurrection, the Dept. of Justice had the opportunity to indict Mr. Trump himself under The Insurrection Act and elected not to. And the indictments it did bring are merely unproven allegations. Particularly for someone as polarizing as Mr. Trump is, it is important not to forget that.
Again on a point of international relevance, all of us foreigners know that regardless of whether he concedes defeat on Election Night, he is still not the President-Elect and will not be inaugurated in January. All of our governments will be working with the President-Elect’s transition team, confident that a peaceful, orderly transfer of power will occur as always. Concession doesn’t affect this.
President Biden is a decent man but it’s time for him to retire and reflect on a long life well lived. Then write a book and enjoy the accolades that will come his way for a long and for DC, distinguished, career.
Right now that is a bit awkward for the process of nominating a candidate. K. Harris would be pretty much leveraged into being the new Democratic nominee.
How did things get to the point where the alternatives are an 81 year old man with a terrible VP and Trump?
+1
I have no respect for the Israeli leadership and have no issue saying that in the past they did things that subtly added fuel to the fire but have finally learned their lesson on that.
While they may be reaping what they helped sow, they’re no longer doing that.
I have no less respect for the Hamas or Hummus or whatever they call themselves and the PLA lost all it gained as well in everything.