Why Evolution is True is a blog written by Jerry Coyne, centered on evolution and biology but also dealing with diverse topics like politics, culture, and cats.
It’s Saturday, April 30, and in Chicago it’ll be cool with a 99% chance of precipitation by this afternoon (how do they get that figure?). On this day in 1789, George Washington was sworn in as the first President of the United States, On April 30, 1945, Hitler and Eva Braun committed suicide in his bunker in Berlin as Russian troops approached. Mimi Fariña, the sister of Joan Baez and a radical activist, was born on this day in 1945 (she died in 2001), on the same day as writer Annie Dillard (still with us). Édouard Manet died on this day in 1883, and, ironically, in 1966 writer Richard Faiña (Mimi’s husband) was killed in a motorcycle accident at age 29. In 1983, both Muddy Waters and George Balanchine died on April 30.
Meanwhile in Dobrzyn, Hili performs an uncharacteristic act of charity, bringing flowers to Andrzej:
Hili: Is it your birthday today?
A: No, why do you ask?
Hili: Because I have a present for you.
In Polish:
Hili: Masz dziś urodziny?
Ja: Nie, dlaczego pytasz?
Hili: Bo mam dla ciebie prezent.
And we have a special bonus today. The cherry trees are at last in full bloom in the orchard, and at least one reader asked for a photo of Hili among the flowers. Here are two!
Isn’t she lovely?
As another treat, reader Dennis D. sends a photo of Willet Babcock, a Civil War veteran who later ran a furniture store in Paris, Texas. He’s buried in the local Evergeen Cemetery, and, before he died in 1881, Babcock ordered a local stonecutter to produce a special gravestone memorial: Jesus (or an angel) wearing cowboy boots!:
Along with some typical memorial elements – carved wreaths, a cross, an angelic figure in robes – Babcock gave his final presentation to the world a little Texas twang. The Jesus like figure is sporting cowboy boots.
There is debate about whether it really is Jesus. Some say the face is too feminine (there is no beard) and he (she?) appears to be leaning on the cross rather than carrying it. But whoever the angel in robes was intended to represent, the memorial has long since been dubbed “Jesus in Cowboy Boots”.
Yep, them’s cowboy boots!
This is a gross act of Christian cultural appropriation, for Jesus is clearly “punching down” here.
“Jesus in Cowboy Boots” would be a great title for a Country/Western song.
Also, Claude Elwood Shannon, born on 30 April 1916. He’s known as “the father of information theory…He’s also well known for founding digital circuit design theory in 1937, when, as a 21-year-old master’s degree student at the MIT.”
“There is debate about whether it really is Jesus.” The debating has already Begun. In 2000 years the story will have morphed into Jesus having been a cowgirl from Texas. There’s the evidence, carved in stone, just like the commandments.
“a 99% chance of precipitation by this afternoon (how do they get that figure?)”
Probably from the forecaster hedging his bet. This hedging works because the verification score (at least when I was at the Wx Service) for precip forecasts is related the sum (over many days of forecasting) of the SQUARE of the difference between the forecast probability and the actual “probability” — the latter being either 1.0 (it rained) or 0.0 (it didn’t). The lower the score the better.
So why, if the forecaster was all that sure, didn’t she state 100& chance? If she was wrong, it cost her 10,000 “points”; with a 99% forecast, the cost is 199 points less. But if it does rain the difference is only 1 point. 1 for 200 is a good bet.
Upon such distinctions reputations are made.
Very interesting. I had no idea that forecasters had reputation.
We, just west of Chicago a few hundred miles are at 100%, I presume since it is raining hard. Maybe blame this weather on climate change or boots on Jebus but it is crazy. Had lots of mowing to do yesterday, ahead of this 100% water and I had to wear a winter coat as the temp was 48 degrees F with a wind. Must get a heater on the mower.
Hili looks fabulous…
Wonderful photos of a cherry-blossom-enwreathed Hili, Malgorzata and Andrzej. Thank you. Wishing you a bountiful crop this year!
+1
It’s Saturday, April 30, and in Chicago it’ll be cool with a 99% chance of precipitation by this afternoon (how do they get that figure?).
I think you might have been napping at the time, but Ken was driving Kelly, you, and me back from Flagstaff when he explained it.
In short, in 99% of previous observations of similar conditions, it’s rained. As such, it’s not really a forecast prediction, but rather an historical summary report.
Eventually, one might hope that prediction will evolve to the point where you’d get figures along the lines of, say, “30% of the land area in this region will receive measurable rainfall in the morning,” but we’re not there yet.
“Jesus in Cowboy Boots” would be a great title for a Country/Western song.
Also, Claude Elwood Shannon, born on 30 April 1916. He’s known as “the father of information theory…He’s also well known for founding digital circuit design theory in 1937, when, as a 21-year-old master’s degree student at the MIT.”
“There is debate about whether it really is Jesus.” The debating has already Begun. In 2000 years the story will have morphed into Jesus having been a cowgirl from Texas. There’s the evidence, carved in stone, just like the commandments.
“a 99% chance of precipitation by this afternoon (how do they get that figure?)”
Probably from the forecaster hedging his bet. This hedging works because the verification score (at least when I was at the Wx Service) for precip forecasts is related the sum (over many days of forecasting) of the SQUARE of the difference between the forecast probability and the actual “probability” — the latter being either 1.0 (it rained) or 0.0 (it didn’t). The lower the score the better.
So why, if the forecaster was all that sure, didn’t she state 100& chance? If she was wrong, it cost her 10,000 “points”; with a 99% forecast, the cost is 199 points less. But if it does rain the difference is only 1 point. 1 for 200 is a good bet.
Upon such distinctions reputations are made.
Very interesting. I had no idea that forecasters had reputation.
We, just west of Chicago a few hundred miles are at 100%, I presume since it is raining hard. Maybe blame this weather on climate change or boots on Jebus but it is crazy. Had lots of mowing to do yesterday, ahead of this 100% water and I had to wear a winter coat as the temp was 48 degrees F with a wind. Must get a heater on the mower.
Hili looks fabulous…
Wonderful photos of a cherry-blossom-enwreathed Hili, Malgorzata and Andrzej. Thank you. Wishing you a bountiful crop this year!
+1
I think you might have been napping at the time, but Ken was driving Kelly, you, and me back from Flagstaff when he explained it.
In short, in 99% of previous observations of similar conditions, it’s rained. As such, it’s not really a forecast prediction, but rather an historical summary report.
Eventually, one might hope that prediction will evolve to the point where you’d get figures along the lines of, say, “30% of the land area in this region will receive measurable rainfall in the morning,” but we’re not there yet.
b&