Welcome to the Crueliest Day: Tuesday, February 25, 2025. and National Chocolate-Covered Nut Day, celebrating something good for you covered with something bad for you. Like these, displayed on Wikipedia (M&M Peanuts are a related species):

It’s also Let’s All Eat Right Day, National Clam Chowder Day (only the New England form is acceptable) and World Spay Day, a day to have all our ovaries or testes removed. This is supposedly the best chowdah (and lobster rolls) in Chicago, though I haven’t been there:
Readers are welcome to mark notable events, births, or deaths on this day by consulting the February 25 Wikipedia page.
Da Nooz:
*Trump is NOT on the side of the angels vis-à-vis the war in Ukraine, for the U.S. has just voted against a United Nations resolution condemning Russia for starting that war. (Remember Trump blaming it on Zelensky?) What?
The United States voted with Russia, North Korea, Belarus and 14 other Moscow-friendly countries Monday on a resolution condemning Russian aggression in Ukraine and calling for its occupied territory to be returned that passed overwhelmingly in the U.N. General Assembly on Monday.
The U.S. delegation also abstained on its own separate resolution that called simply for a negotiated end to the war after European-sponsored amendments inserting new anti-Russian language also passed the 193-member body by a wide margin.
The votes were a clear sign of opposition by major U.S. allies as well as countries throughout the Global South who were prepared to buck heavy diplomatic pressure from the Trump administration to support President Donald Trump’s efforts to quickly end the war through direct negotiations with Moscow
A State Department official, speaking on the condition of anonymity about the fast-moving diplomacy, said the United States would introduce its resolution at a meeting of the 15-member U.N. Security Council later Monday and would veto any amendments.
“While our partners at the Security Council and in the General Assembly would like to debate the entire situation now, we are much more focused on just getting the parties to the table so that whatever the next step is can be undertaken,” the official said
Richard Gowan, a U.N. expert at the International Crisis Group, said the divide between the United States and Europe marked “the biggest split among Western powers at the U.N. since the Iraq War — and probably even more fundamental.”
Everything the U.S. does about this war is insane. Yes, it’s a tough situation, but voting against our allies and taking sides with Putin rubs me the wrong way. The European-amended resolution, however, passed the UN with a vote of 93-18, with 65 abstaining, a vote that reflects weakening but still strong support for Ukraine, as well as a big split between the U.S. and our allies.
*The six-week cease-fire between Israel and Hamas is coming to the end of Phase 1. Will there be a Phase 2? Nobody knows, but Israel’s refusal to release the latest dollop of Palestinian terrorist shows that the Jewish state is running out of patience.
When Israel and Hamas agreed to a six-week cease-fire in January, there were hopes that it would evolve into a longer and more stable truce.
Now, those hopes are dwindling.
Both sides have accused each other of breaking the terms of the existing deal, which have allowed for the exchange of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners. Over the weekend, Israel delayed the release of several hundred prisoners, protesting the humiliating manner in which Hamas had paraded hostages before handing them over.
With just days before the current truce elapses on Sunday, the sides have yet to begin negotiations for an extension.
Steve Witkoff, the Mideast envoy for the Trump administration, said he would return to the region on Wednesday to push for a new truce.
(Witkoff is the new Blinken, trying to hold back Israel by telling it how to fight and/or negotiate.) More:
While a brief extension is possible, the likelihood of a long-term arrangement — preventing the revival of fighting — seems remote.
Both sides have preconditions that make it hard to reach a permanent resolution. Israel’s leaders say they will only end the war once Hamas no longer exerts military and political power in Gaza. Hamas has indicated it could give up some civil responsibilities but its leaders have largely dismissed the idea of disarmament, at least in public.
, , , The two sides were supposed to use the six weeks to negotiate the terms for a permanent truce that would have begun as soon as March 2. Those negotiations were expected to focus on who should govern postwar Gaza, as well as the release of roughly 60 other hostages.
Though punctured by disruptions, most of the exchanges have gone roughly to plan. The negotiations for a second phase have not. They have yet to begin in earnest — even though, under the terms of the January agreement, they were supposed to conclude by this past Sunday.
That failure is partly because, according to the agreement, the truce can only formally roll over if both sides agree to end the war. But Israel and Hamas have such differing visions of a postwar Gaza that the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has been unwilling to even restart talks.
My prediction? The war will start again, unless Hamas agrees to surrender, giving up its arms and its power. I don’t see that happening.
*Germany is turning towards the right, as are many European countries. The election yesterday was not good news for the German Left. From the Free Press’s morning bulletin yesterday:
. . . It’s not a guten morgen for Germany’s center-left.
The polls predicted an electoral earthquake in Germany’s elections—and that is exactly what voters in Europe’s largest economy delivered on Sunday.
Turnout was at its highest since reunification. The right-wing populist party, Alternative for Germany (AfD), doubled its vote share and finished second. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s center-left Social Democratic Party (SDP) slumped to an all-time low. And the center-right CDU/CSU bloc came top, with their leader, Friedrich Merz, poised to take over as chancellor.
Never before in Germany’s postwar history has a party other than the CDU and the SDP finished in the top two in the Bundestag election. The message from the result is stark, writes Christopher Caldwell in The Free Press today: “German voters have decided that stopping mass immigration, legal and illegal, is a national emergency.”
Germany is far from the only Western democracy in which voters’ anger at high rates of immigration—and an elite refusal to grapple with the issue—has driven its politics. But, for obvious historical reasons, the rise of a right-wing, populist party brings with it added apprehension in Germany.
That’s part of the reason why the German electorate isn’t quite ready to give up on its establishment parties. The math in the Bundestag means Merz will likely end up in a grand coalition with the SDP—the same governing arrangement that kept Angela Merkel in power for so long. The question, though, is whether the next chancellor can use that power to fix the issue that has voters so angry.
This of course largely reflects a dissatisfaction with widespread immigration, particularly after a series of nasty and fatal attacks against Germans. And if the CDU/CSU don’t do something about this problem, then we’re only a Sieg, Heil away from the AfD.
*The NYT reports that a rare oarfish was spotted swimming on the beach in Mexico. There are three species of this fish in two genera (Agrostichthys and Regalecus, and they are not considered very edible.
The elusive oarfish, a creature nicknamed the “doomsday fish” because of its place in folklore as a precursor to disaster, was captured on video this month after it was seen in shallow water in Baja California Sur, along Mexico’s Pacific Coast.
A group of people who were visiting the area spotted the fish swimming near a beach in early February.
Oarfish have an eel-like slender body and gaping mouth, but the sea-monster-like creatures have rarely been seen alive by people. As of August, only about 20 oarfish sightings had been recorded along the coast of California since 1901, according to the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, though one washed up in the state as recently as November.
In Japanese mythology, oarfish are viewed as harbingers of doom, signaling impending earthquakes. But researchers in Japan debunked any significant link in a paper published in 2019.
Oarfish typically dwell at depths of around 650 feet, but have been found living much deeper, up to 3,280 feet, according to the Florida Museum of Natural History.
From Wikipedia:
R. glesne is not fished commercially, but it is an occasional bycatch in commercial nets. When cooked, the taste of an oarfish is described as “like paper.” R. glesne was offered to a dog who regularly consumes fish, and was refused. Six people agreed to try fried oarfish and said that the taste was suitable, but the flesh was extremely flaccid, and overall objectionable.
Here’s one labeled, “United States Navy SEALs holding a 23-foot (7.0 m) giant oarfish, found washed up on the shore near San Diego, California, in September 1996″. It’s HUGE! And it’s the world’s largest bony fish.
*Bad news for the consumer (and most of us): coffee prices are at a 50-year high, and this is due largely to climate change (article archived here).
Some see more expensive coffee as a corrective to an international system that has long underpaid producers, having the potential to rectify generations of injustice and environmental destruction.
“Older methods of production have stripped soil health and fertility, and they don’t allow for resilience against climate change,”said Amanda Archila, executive director of Fairtrade America, a Washington-based nonprofit that establishes environmental and social standards for coffee producers, certifying those that abide and connecting them with world markets at guaranteed minimum prices. “Higher prices are where we need to go, pricing that allows these farmers to invest in the future of coffee.”
Sixty percent of the world’s coffee is produced by an estimated 12.5 million people working on farms no larger than 50 acres — and most far smaller than that — according to World Coffee Research, a nonprofit organization that promotes sustainable farming practices. Some 44 percent of these so-called smallholders are living below the World Bank’s measure of poverty.
. . . Even in modern times, the enterprise has largely revolved around scale and abundance. Coffee harvested and processed into green beans from Colombia to Kenya has been shipped to boutique roasters and vast agribusiness conglomerates in wealthier countries. It is a chain connecting laborers who earn as little as $2 a day in Latin America, Asia and Africa to people who hand over more than twice that for a single cappuccino in Copenhagen, Dubai and Boston.
The bulk of the profits have traditionally been captured by major coffee roasters. Their profits have grown along with the price of coffee beans, even as many growers have failed to capture a piece of the extra bounty.
The solution? Perhaps cooperatives and fair-trade agreements, but the workers have to be properly compensated. And given that Starbucks is not going to charge reasonable prices for its fancy coffee, that means higher prices for consumers. That’s fine with me: I buy my own beans and grind them. In the end, people will pay whatever the traffic will bear, for coffee is not just a drink, but a necessity (when I was a grad student at Harvard, you could buy it from Lab Supplies using grant money, for it was considered an essential tool of scientific research.
Meanwhile in Dobrzyn, Hili is down on philosophy, and it’s no surprise:
Hili: The poverty of philosophy.A: Have you been reading Marx again?Hili: No, Judith Butler.
Hili: Nędza filozofii.Ja: Znowu czytałaś Marksa?Hili: Nie, Judith Butler.
*******************
From Cat Memes:
From Things With Faces, a sad garlic clove:
From Jesus of the Day; I think it refers to micturation:
From Masih; Fatima Payman is an Australian senator who defended the two Muslim Aussie nurses who said they’d kill Israeli patients if they could.
I am a woman from Iran, and I testify that you, @SenatorPayman, are lying.
Look me in the eye, if you dare, and repeat your words. The Islamic Republic shot me for protesting my sister Mahsa Amini’s murder. I had only my voice; they took my eye. https://t.co/4qCQ5pZiEP pic.twitter.com/rmajty3CsN
— Kosar Eftekhari 🕊️ (@kosareftekharii) February 24, 2025
From Luana; you can see the ad here, and oy, is it anti-Semitic!
As part of a cluster hire in Palestinian Studies, Hunter College is looking to hire an anti-Israel activist.
A new job ad calls for an expert in “settler colonialism, genocide, human rights, apartheid, migration, climate and infrastructure devastation, health, race, gender and… pic.twitter.com/X3lzpq1R06
— Steve McGuire (@sfmcguire79) February 24, 2025
From Malcolm, three species in friendship:
Just a fox, cat and birds.. 😊 pic.twitter.com/G9zu0nPK2O
— Buitengebieden (@buitengebieden) January 30, 2025
From my Bluesky feed. Did they really decorate 10 Downing Street that way?
Slava Ukraini! 🇺🇦(Photo @justinng.bsky.social – 2022)
— Larry the Cat (@number10cat.bsky.social) 2025-02-24T10:08:30.898Z
I want this job, too!
The job that I want pic.twitter.com/K1EgFKnFIk
— NO CONTEXT HUMANS (@HumansNoContext) February 23, 2025
From the Auschwitz Memorial, one that I reposted.
Gassed upon arrival at Auschwitz, this German Jewish boy was only 12.
— Jerry Coyne (@evolutionistrue.bsky.social) 2025-02-25T11:00:08.419Z
An old guy making jokes about getting old (sound up):
This old timer is a comedic genius 🤣 😂 pic.twitter.com/loRwkTy9Q7
— internet hall of fame (@InternetH0F) February 24, 2025
One tweet from Dr. Cobb, currently in Asilomar; it leads to a thread about “lazy corn”:
A brief #Cornfax. And since I've been lazy with my #cornfax, let's talk about lazy corn. Lazy corn is, well, a pretty apt description. Unlike the corn on the left which stands tall and proud, the lazy corn just lies on the ground. It doesn't grow straight. So what's up (or not up in this case)? 1/4
— Jeffrey Ross-Ibarra (@jrossibarra.bsky.social) 2025-01-22T14:26:26.511Z





In the cellars of the night, when the mind starts moving around old trunks of bad times, the pain of this and the shame of that, the memory of a small boldness is a hand to hold. -John Leonard, critic (25 Feb 1939-2008)
Thank you for this. I thought it was only my mind scrambling around at midnight.
Reminds me of an Indian poem that Oppenheimer once quoted (his own translation from Sanskrit):
In battle, in forest, at the precipice in the mountains
On the dark great sea, in the midst of javelins and arrows,
In sleep, in confusion, in the depths of shame,
The good deeds a man has done before defend him.
For fellow space cadet readers: Jeff Bezos’ latest sub-orbital space tourism flight is scheduled to launch at 1030 ET this morning. You tube live coverage should be at
On the German election, the map showing the votes (item 2 in the following link) displays a very stark difference between the old East and West Germanys: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/24/a-country-divided-five-key-takeaways-from-the-german-election
That is interesting. Some 6-7 political parties (!), and old East Germany is far right.
6-7 is normal, or maybe a bit on the low side, for countries with proportional representation.
It is beyond me how anyone can call a two-party system (even if it is only effectively two-party) democratic with a straight face; it’s not that much differerent from a one-party system.
As to why the far-right AfD is most popular in former East Germany, my guess is that the people there didn’t magically experience a huge increase in the standard of living after unification and are thus disappointed with the traditional parties. The party “Linke” (literally “Left”) is also more popular there, but might be avoided by some of the disappointed because it is a descendant of the SED, the former ruling party in East Germany.
See my comment above (the link to a longer explanation on X); while the map is not wrong, it is important to understand what it actually shows. Many will get the impression that the east—west split, though real, is larger than it actually is.
The UK had a referendum on voting systems back in 2011. PR was rejected by 67.9% of the voters. In theory the two-party system should diminish extremism. It is unclear if it really does. It is somewhat clear that the shift away from ‘smoke filled rooms’ to primaries (US) and letting party members pick party leaders (UK) has promoted extremism. For example, Corbyn was quite popular with Labor party members. He was not popular with voters.
Communism is a debilitating wasting disease, often fatal. Prognosis for full recovery is never good. Sometimes the only treatment is amputation, as of a gangrenous limb.
A pox on Marx, Engels, and their villainous movement, and to those adjacent thereto.
https://x.com/PhillipHelbig/status/1894001851231617442
It is important to understand what the map actually shows.
Three thoughts…
First: The AfD is not right-wing populist or national conservative (as the English Wikipedia site trivializes), but it is largely nationalist and right-wing extremist.
Second: Germany had the highest voter turnout in a federal election for decades (since 1987 to be precise) namely 82.5%. I see that as a positive sign. Democracy is not dead.
Third: Germany will have a two-party coalition, namely the conservative CDU and the social democratic SPD. After 3.5 years of unrest and chaos in the traffic light coalition under a weak Chancellor Olaf Scholz, which was largely due to the destructive actions of the liberal FDP (of all parties!), we can now expect far more calm and practical work. That is the most important thing in view of the difficult global political situation.
True, but most of the voters who increased the turnout voted for AfD or Linke.
It’s important to put things in perspective. The CSU (the “sister party” of the CDU in Bavaria) is the most conservative of the traditional parties. Yet it supports free education through university, single-payer healthcare, gun control, etc.; it’a actually to the left of Bernie Sanders on some issues.
I would say that the AfD are quite similar to Trump’s Republicans.
Please explain how AfD is right-wing extremist.
I’ve read their Manifesto For Germany and it does not seem extremist. Nationalist, yes. But I don’t know how you are defining extremist, so I’d like to understand this better.
Side note: I don’t see the term “left-wing extremist” used, even by those on the right, and even when describing those who favor communist or socialist policies. I can’t recall the last time I’ve seen this used in media, if ever.
For example, I’d regard the DSA as left-wing extremists, but the media doesn’t use that term to describe them, nor does Wikipedia. Same with Antifa; Wikipedia calls them ” a left-wing anti-fascist and anti-racist political movement in the United States” but not “extremist” even though they often resort to violence. I guess if a group has the same philosophy you do, they’re not extremists, but those who are opposed to that view are.
Obviously, it depends on the definitions of “right wing” and “extremist”. In a world in which a long-haired atheist Jew from Montreal, who is an avid cyclist, married to a writer, voluntarily childless, and has spent most of his professional life teaching psychology at Harvard and MIT can be dubbed “alt right” with no irony whatsoever, it is important to define the terms.
Do you agree that the real, original Nazis were right-wing extremists?
In the famous interview with Elon Musk, Alice Weidel claimed that Hitler was “left-wing” and “a communist”. That in itself would probably make her a right-wing extremist. Other members of the party have often spoken of the Holocaust as if it is no big deal. The party thinks that Ukraine, not Russia, started the war.
Björn Höcke, an important member of the AfD, has regularly used real, actual Nazi vocabulary. That isn’t obvious to those not familiar with it, but of course it is a “code” to those in the know as to his real intentions. (One can rule out that he didn’t know that the terms had those connotations because his job before he became a politician was history teacher.)
Wikipedia is known for its wokeness, so that’s not a good source.
Certainly in the German media one regularly hears about both left-wing and right-wing extremists. The AfD is getting more publicity now that they have done well in recent elections, and most left-wind extremists are not organized in a political party so, while individual actions can be dangerous, there is less of a real danger that they would actually come into a position to wield any real political power.
A working definition could perhaps be that an extremist party sees violence as a legitimate political tool and/or works to reduce democracy (provided that that benefits them, of course), or encourages those who do so.
Are all members of the party right-wing extremists? No, but some are, including some in important positions. Are all voters? No. Some are, but probably a lower percentage than in the party.
Thank you for setting the record straight. As a fellow German I mostly agree on your take of the AfD.
https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/bundestagswahl/afd-fraktion-krah-helferich-100.html
I generally dismiss the word “extremist” as having little value other than telling me what a speaker doesn’t like. Best to stick with describing actions and ideas with which one disagrees. Even when speaking of Nazis and Islamic suicide bombers.
Translated with DeepL
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_f%C3%BCr_Deutschland
BTW, the AfD-politician Björn Höcke can officially be called a fascist. This has been confirmed by the courts.
In the European Parliament, the French Rassemblement National considered the AfD to be too right-wing to be in their “mega party” (not sure what the English word is: essentially a party in the European Parliament but composed of similar parties from the various countries).
The most important thing about AfD is that they are pro-Putin.
Some good news today: I saw a news article that some pro-Palestinian Barnard students who burst into and disrupted a “History of Modern Israel” class were expelled.
Surely it must be illegal to hire based on political views. I would think some people have a good lawsuit.
The final score: 93 countries, including major European countries like Germany, UK, France and the G7 (minus the US) voted in favour; 18, including Russia, US, Israel and Hungary voted “against; and 65, including India, China and Brazil, abstained.”
Why didn’t Israel abstain at least?
My guess is that the Israeli leadership didn’t want to get crossways with President Trump. He could turn on Israel in a heartbeat.
Given the history of weaker groups not sticking up for each other, the Israeli leadership should know better.
First they came for the Ukrainians…
Well, sticking up for each other should go both ways. Between 2015 and 2025 at the UN General Assembly Ukraine voted against Israel 122 times, abstained 41 times and voted for 0 (zero) times.
2015-2025 is a very long time and involves for the vast majority a time where Israel deserved to be voted against due to their illegal settlements.
What is the record since October 2023?
Also I would like to note your endorsement of transactional foreign policy – is this really how the Jewish state should conduct itself in your view? I certainly wouldn’t want my native nation to engage in such behavior but would expect them to do the right thing and criticize the leadership in case they do the wrong thing.
You should know the answer for your question: since October 2023 Ukraine not once voted for Israel.
Of course, I do not agree that all resolutions against Israel until 2023 were deserved nor do I (and very many experts in international law) agree that while Arabs may live in Israel (some 2 million of the do) Jews should be forbidden to live in Judea and that their town and villages are “illegal”.
I don’t know what you mean by saying that I endorse “transactional foreign policy”. Israel voted according to its own interests not for any other reason. I just wanted to show that you can’t demand only from one state to behave in a certain way but not from any other. If you think that small groups should stick to each other it means also that you should demand it from Ukraine as well. It seems though that you, like so many others, have different standards when it comes to Israel than when it comes to the rest of the world.
I do not know the record since October 2023, since it makes a difference if Ukraine abstained or voted against.
I also do not say, that every resolution against Israel was justified – only that there were reasons for why it would be justified to vote against Israel.
The 2 million Arabs that live in Israel subject to the laws and rules of the nation of Israel. The “Jews living in Judea” in their towns and villages do not subject themselves to the laws and rules of the administration that governs that land. Instead they subject themselves to Israeli law. That is a key difference.
Finally I’d say that did not levy this demand against Israel alone. I want my own nation as well as all our EU allies to vote for what’s right and not what’s expedient. I want other nations to do so as well and I do not endorse Ukraine’s voting record – I merely question the validity of taking 10 years of voting when the situation in both countries has radically changed in that time.
Therefore it is valid in my book to criticize Israel to vote for what is expedient. Do you think it was best for Israel to vote in favor of one of the major backers of Iran? What does it do Israel’s standing if it signals it’s a willing vassal of an erratic US leader? In the grand scheme of things, I’m pretty sure that an international order that reacts harshly against wars of aggression favors Israel.
I do not see much difference between voting against or cowardly abstaining from a vote.
Israel just now is in the middle of an existential war on seven fronts (and still has its own citizens in bloodthirsty terrorists captivity). To survive this war Israel depends on the U.S. For me it is a reason enough to try not to antagonize the U.S. especially because the U.N., E.U. and “human rights” behemoths are so hostile against it.
Moreover, the situation of both countries (Israel and Ukraine) didn’t change so radically during these 10 years. Israel fought two wars during this time (2014 and 2021) and all the time had rockets from terrorists and terrorist attacks inside Israel to deal with, Ukraine had to deal with attacks on Crimea and Donietsk region and a low level war with Russia.
Thanks for that info. It makes sense now. Sad.
This is sad. I suppose the Ukrainians do not want to spoil their relationships with Arab countries who are chief negotiators in prisoner exchanges, but still quite a depressing situation.
I think that is the case Norman. Trump isn’t known for his wider loyalty. Israel has had to be discrete in its alliance with Ukraine so as not to anger Russia too much — there are a lot of Jews still in Russia. Putin had a sit down with some hats (orthodox) the other day in the Kremlin. Like a hostage video.
How did Micronesia and Palau vote? They ALWAYS toe our line! Bless those little coral reefs with flags.
D.A.
NYC
I think the same. A sad affair all around.
BTW, according to Ukrainian media, there is currently a discussion among some Israelis that, taking a note from Ukraine’s fate, their country should not depend on the USA for anything.
Here’s a different take on the Russo-Ukraine War.
And by “different take” you mean Putin’s propaganda of “Ukraine and its NATO backers” caused the war. Oh the irony between the ‘might makes right’ rhetoric now and the “racist wokerati are oppressing dissidents” rhetoric under the previous administration.
At least there is another news source to be put on the black list for BS. Should have saved the time spent skimming the article after the “Gaslighting!” ad and the desire to sell my data to 200+ “legitimate interest” vendors.
Dr. B. is renowned around these here parts for his occasional “different takes”.
D.A.
NYC
Interesting article. That was well-written and seemed not to be partisan.
I had forgotten about the claim that Russia’s economy would collapse under the sanctions. Those sanctions are still in place, but had no lasting effect.
This quote from the article is telling: “The war party’s only hope is to blame their failure on Trump, and to spin out the conflict until it becomes a permanent state of war.” It seems obvious that the Ukraine is not going to take back the land, at least not without major intervention and escalation by Western powers. That leaves a stalemate position at best. So what can be done? The best answer seems to be a brokered peace. For the US to broker that peace means to acknowledge Russian territory gains, which then leads to the charge that Trump is acquiescing to Putin. But to me the alternative co continuing the current strategy seems worse: no change in conditions on the ground, more dead bodies, and arms makers getting richer. I do hope that any Trump plan also includes a significant penalty for any further Russian incursions.
It’s interesting how the neo-con war movement migrated from the Republican party during the Bush years to the Democratic party with Hillary Clinton / Joe Biden. Trump’s definitely no neo-con.
Hold up on the “sanctions have had no effect” there Darryl. It looks like that for sure but I follow the economics of the conflict quite closely given the importance of economics in these situations.
Putin has been sanctions proofing since 2014 so they had less effect than hoped but what has happened there is a major mortgaging of Russia’s financial future on this war and it effects all levels of their society. The bill of this leverage will come due in the next few years and it’ll be hell to pay.
You have to look under the hood to see the big picture economic damage coming soon-ish.
best regards,
D.A.
NYC
Yes, “sanctions have had no effect” is very, very wrong.
The Russian petro-state is running a deficit after burning through it’s reserve.
Interest rates in Russia are at 22% but that’s still not enough to curb inflation which is running at roughly 30%.
The central bank surrendering to political pressure.
Modest GDP growth while significant amount of the GDP goes into things that get blown up in Ukraine.
Significant worker shortage.
Debt-bondage recruitment where Russian men are forced to sign up to have the debt forgiven they rack up trying to make ends meet.
All signs of a very robust Russian economy not under duress from sanctions and the war… If Trump wouldn’t fellate Putin swallowing all the Russian demands, Trump could end the war. By giving Ukraine the assistance it needs to retake its territory. Instead, Trump prefers to carve up Ukraine mineral rights with the aggressor and thinks Europe will secure US mineral exploitation.
Then again… if one thinks this article well-written and non-patisan, I cannot help.
Obviously the war itself is taking a toll, and the sanctions have forced Russia to shuffle trade alliances. However, if the intent of the sanctions was to force Russia to back off from the invasion and continued aggression in the Ukraine, they are not working. It will indeed be interesting to see the effect of leveraging long-term, but those potential future effects aren’t making Russia act any differently.
Regarding the well-written comment, I’ll admit that some of it is confirmation bias that reinforces my longstanding dislike of neo-cons.
Biden was no neocon. He sold out Ukraine. He always deliberately gave too little aid and with delay so that not to cross Putin. He would never give Patriots, he would never give F-16, so he said. And he forbade Europeans to give much as well. He would finally give all these things but in tea spoons and in delay so that they wouldn’t give victory. The Patriots were given with the recognition module removed (because it was thought that Ukraine would never be given US aircraft), so when F-16 were given, the Ukrainians, unable to recognize them, shot one, killing the pilot.
Biden pressured the Ukrainians to launch a major offensive in 2023, while leaking the plans to the Russians to ensure that it will fail. His goal was to bleed Ukraine to the point when it would agree to unfavorable terms of peace, but because of how the elections turned out, this dirty job fell to Trump.
I am writing of “Biden” but I really mean the people who were pulling the strings behind him – Sullivan, Burns or whoever it was.
Now, let’s remember how Bill Clinton pressured Ukraine into surrendering its nuclear arsenal, promising that the USA would defend its territorial integrity. My command of English does not allow me to explain what I think of this betrayal and backstabbing by the USA, and besides, Prof. Coyne would ban me.
Not interested in Russian propaganda. There’s been a lot. One group that was just caught is Tenet Media.
Please do not repeat their lies.
Thank you. Russian propaganda gets on my nerves when I see it retranslated by Westerners.
Putin gave two Canadians living in the USA a whole bunch of money to solicit popular YouTubers and pay them to repeat Putin’s propaganda.
It wasn’t Putin himself they dealt with of course, it was a Russian living in the US, who was eventually arrested for not registering as a foreign agent.
The Canadians then fled back to Canada where they were questioned in Parliament. They claimed not to know that all this money was coming from Russia.
The YouTubers also claimed ignorance.
Their company was called Tenet Media: prime example of Russian propaganda pushed through an intermediary.
Israel voting against Ukraine in the UN is seriously disappointing since they should be the ones to know best how it feels to suffer an attack and needing international assistance to mount an effective defense.
Prisoners’ Dilemma, I guess.
Jews have sided with the fellow oppressed before, as with the American Negro civil rights movement in the 1960s at personal cost to themselves. Fat lot of good it did them.
Jews in Israel and abroad can and do criticize Israel’s policies (as does everyone else, it seems.) The only foreign-policy principle the Israeli Government should follow is, “Is it good for the Jews?”
Indeed fat lot of good, Leslie. A disaster.
Click to Bernie Saunders being arrested at a civil rights march 1960s. Those Jewish vote rider guys in Alabama, etc.
That whole alliance fell apart – was cleaved apart – by damn Palestine.
Which ultimately screwed the Dems.
The murderous (see “Ferguson and Floyd Effects”) BLM and the crazies in black coalition allying with Hamas was a last straw. BLM are today’s Black Panthers/Third World Socialists just as crocs are today’s birkensocks (sp? Not a boomer, can afford good footware).
Sadly the craziest and worst shod idiots can do untold damage.
D.A.
NYC
The old timer comedian who was pulled over after drinking and smoking hash – inhaled on the breathalyzer and passed it to the cop.
🙂
Nice memory about coffee in scientific research. In a hospital I trained in, one of the senior faculty physicians had her clinical office on the same floor as the inpatient ward where most of the medical teaching took please. She arranged for her private office staff to brew up a big urn of coffee every morning. The interns and residents were always welcome to stop by when they had a need for a lift, especially those who had been up all night on call and were trying to get through to 1800 when, with luck, we’d be able to go home.
Thank you, Dr. Vale (RIP)
We get our beans from a local farmer whose son, a missionary, exports them directly to her from growers he works among in Nicaragua. It’s not outrageously more expensive than good beans from the supermarket but noticeably better. As you say, coffee in a shop seems like a waste of money.
Coffee is the best life-extending drug we have. I’m buying it—whole beans I buy in bulk and grind myself—no matter what.
When I arrived in the lab in Stockholm, severely jet-lagged from my first trans-Atlantic flight, just in time for afternoon coffee, they handed me a cup. Having embraced dilute midwestern coffee as a grad student, I recoiled.
The comment was, “Oh, where you come from coffee is a drink. Here, it is a medicine.”
I consider cream or milk to be the most dispensable ingredients in chowder. I lived in a remote fishing village for a few years and we made chowder from a variety of foods such as shellfish, fin fish and vegetables. Dairy products were only available hours away by either vehicle or vessel, but there was always access to ample amounts of potatoes and flour to stiffen the broth.
As for coffee, I guess it’s going up along with other things. Never cared for the taste of Starbucks, although that aspect of it is unique; more than that, I can’t stomach the prices for such coffee. I generally buy something cheap and brew my own; if I want a treat, I may get Café Bustelo – it’s pretty robust. Before it got too high and I got too cheap, I liked the McDonald’s red (?) label as it was very smooth.
As for things moving to the right in Europe, there can be little doubt as to the cause. I have predicted this for a while, at least as far as the US is concerned – as one side moves farther left, the other will move farther right. Years ago, I began to refer to this phenomenon as the pendulum effect.
This US vote on the UN resolution is characterized by many as a vote against Ukraine and a vote for Russia. The original US-written resolution, which later passed at the Security Council, simply deplored the loss of life on both sides, reiterated the UN commitment to peacefully resolve disputes, and called for a swift end to the war, with arrangements for a lasting peace. No assignment of blame, no redlines for negotiation, no pretending that some lives are worth more than others, no virtue-flaunting demands that would kill negotiations if insisted upon. All of that has already been done over the last three years. We are at a different place now—except for those who want others to continue (or begin) to fight.
The Ukrainian proposal and the EU amendments, on the other hand, demand that Russia return all territory. Crimea? Uh huh. Tell me, if territorial concessions are either being discussed with Russia or if they are highly likely to be discussed, then why would the United States publicly declare something counter to its negotiating position? So that those who favor indignation over realistic negotiations could feel good? In one’s personal life, one would call this disingenuous. “We stand for returning all of Ukraine’s land (but we really don’t; we realize that some of it has been lost and will negotiate accordingly).”
I believe that Ukraine should be involved in negotiations, but screeds assailing your opponent, claiming to want an end to the war this year, but then demanding that you get your desired way on every point, is not a reasonable way to negotiate—especially when you lack military leverage. Understandable? Sure. Impediment to progress? Yes. I also believe the US should be negotiating; those who believe we shouldn’t do not fundamentally understand the nature of this war.
https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/02/1160456
Nice spin.
The USA is now simply siding with Russia 100%. Trump’s idea of negotiating with Russia is giving it everything it wants before the negotiations have even begun. Allowing it to keep all grabbed land? Sure. Ukraine to forget about NATO? Sure. Blaming Ukraine for being invaded? Sure. Europeans have trusted the USA for far too long.
I recall a story that Trump is in Putin’s hands as Vlad has a video of him in a compromising situation in a Moskow hotel.
As if anyone would care.
He does.
In fact, no video can be remotely as compromising as the things he publicly says and does.
The problem is he doesn’t know that but gets a video of him being urinated on.
My guess is that the Gaza war will resume. My guess is that Hamas does not understand the impact of returning dead bodies on public opinion in Israel. However, what else is new? Hamas has never been very good at reading Israeli public opinion (or Arab public opinion). The attack on the Nova festival was an ‘own goal’ of major proportions. In one stroke, Hamas united Israelis (a normally fractious lot) against them. Of course, I didn’t think any hostage exchanges would ever occur. Obviously, I was wrong.
My guess is that the war will be fought to the bitter end. Is that wise from a Hamas point of view? Probably, not. However, when has Hamas shown any wisdom?
There is an article in The Atlantic by David Frum that should be taken quite seriously.
“If Liberals Won’t Enforce Borders, Fascists Will”
The article is from 2019.