The campaigning for President reaches a fever pitch today, and then tomorrow people head for the polls to cast their vote (many of us, including me, have voted by mail already). This is of course an unscientific poll of readers, so let’s call it the Nate Goldenberg poll. There are two of them, and of course votes are anonymous. First, tell us your own choice:
Who is getting your vote for President
- Kamala Harris (72%, 417 Votes)
- Donald Trump (11%, 64 Votes)
- I'm not going to vote (11%, 61 Votes)
- Other (including write-in candidates) (5%, 29 Votes)
- Undecided (2%, 9 Votes)
Total Voters: 580
Loading ...and then tell us who, in your view, will win:
Loading ...I’ve left the second poll unexpired because we have no idea how long the vote-counting will go on!
Of course you are encouraged to leave comments pertaining to both questions.
As a Brit, I find it astonishing that a second Trump term is even a possibility. I also find it depressing how many intelligent rightwing commentators and celebrities have endorsed Trump – people like Ben Shapiro, Gad Saad, Bret Weinstein, etc. I can only assume it’s financially motivated in the main, or that they’re so deeply immersed in the culture war that they’ve lost their judgement on more important considerations, like being a decent human being or supporting the democratic system. I’ve opted for a Kamala win in the poll but really I don’t think it’s possible to predict. Anecdotally, there are women who are planning to vote for Kamala but won’t admit it in front of their potentially violent MAGA partners, skewing polls. But who knows how significant the numbers are?
Many conservatives see Harris as the threat to democracy. They don’t believe that Jan. 6 was a coup or insurrection. On the other hand Democrats are threatening free speech, the right to bear arms, and the very social fabric of the U.S. with their green policies and immigration policies (which also challenge election integrity). The personal corruption of Biden and the corruption of his Administration are an albatross around the Democrats’ necks.
What personal corruption of Biden? His son Hunter may be sleazy, but I’ve never heard of any evidence of corruption on the part of Joe Biden. Unlike Trump, who is corrupt in many ways, such as using the presidency to enrich his businesses.
And many Trump supporters see Haitian immigrants eating people’s pets. “Many people are saying!”
Of course Trump supporters don’t believe that Jan 6 was a coup. People believe or disbelieve all sorts of things. You still have people around who believe that COVID vaccines are an evil liberal plot to inject Americans with trackers or some such. The question is, what is the basis for their belief or disbelief?
And complaining about Biden’s corruption is really rich when Harris is running against Trump, the most corrupt person ever to disgrace the White House.
Dr B is back to parroting the crap he hears from Hannity.
It is always unfathomable to me that Trump supporters can harp about Hunter Biden using his relation to the President to get rich, when Trump’s whole family is openly and not so openly doing this.
And how can someone deny that Jan 6 was an insurrection? I watched the whole thing unfold live from the very beginning on the internet. The chants included “Hang Mike Pence”. They beat down doors and broke windows and attacked law enforcement and forced the entire Congress to flee for their lives (including Republicans). People were killed.
This is the danger to our country. People who deny obvious facts.
I grew up in a rural area and know a lot of Trump voters both from that region and from Second Amendment rights groups I support. Vanishingly few of them support the man himself. Most would not trust Trump alone with their wallets, let alone their daughters. Many are former military who take concepts like integrity and honor seriously.
As a rule, they are voting not for Trump, who is often referred to as “flawed” in those circles. They are voting against progressivism. If the Democrats had run someone like Jared Polis or another center-left politician willing to reject the worst of the woke positions, they’d sweep this election.
I also believe that if the Republicans had run a center-right candidate against Harris, they would have had an easy win.
Interesting comment. Thank you. I should have said that it’s also astonishing to me how badly the US left has failed to comprehend what motivates Trump voters and address some of those same issues from a more reasonable standpoint. They seem unable to get past their visceral contempt for those sections of US society. This shows a shocking lack of empathy and political acumen.
+1. You can add some write-in and third party voters to your analysis.
Agreeable to all that. A centrist candidate from left or right should be able to beat the other candidate. The middle ground has been sadly vacated, and I’ve said for years that running from that position would get a lot of positive attention.
One way or another, the spell that Trump has cast will eventually be dispelled from the Republican Party, and future candidates will pivot to relative moderation. Fox News will come down with a case of amnesia, as they have done so many times before.
It’s astonishing that either of them could become president. Trump’s misdeeds and character defects are well documented, but Harris is a word salad-spouting buffoon–a depressing illustration of how the modern obsession with DEI can catapult a complete mediocrity into a position of pivotal importance. Both of them are repellent in their own ways, so I guess it’s going to boil down to what repels undecided swing-state voters the most. I’d vote for her, if I was a U.S. citizen, but happily I’m not.
Agree completely. The self-described “greatest country on earth” can’t come up with better candidates than these two??? Our system no longer works.
I hope the winner will moderate the extreme elements in their respective party and get on with the business of governing and dealing with global threats sternly but wisely. I am not confident either of the major party candidates are built to do so. They always seem to have the need to feed the beast that paid, excuse me, paved the way to their success.
Who are the “extreme elements” of the Democratic Party? Bernie Sanders? AOC?
Maybe Marxists living in oppressor/oppressed group paradigms who teach children that version of their reality as truth? Supporters of Hamas? People who tear down pictures of Israeli hostages? Supporters of castrating children or cutting off their breasts to improve their mental health? We permit that in my state for possible trans-children as young as 13, in some cases, without parental permission or even knowledge. Supporters of letting post pubescent genetic males who identify as females play competitive sports as females? Technocrats who manipulate tech algorithms to assist their own or some government’s chosen philosophies and promote those versions of truth? Is any progressive idea too extreme?
Paul’s comments above mirror those of my own family in the UK, but also of most of the people I know in the US. Which probably reflects my personal bubble.
I’m nauseously confident (as someone said) – I think there will be a sweep of the swing states (or close to) so I don’t think the electoral college vote will be as close as the popular vote. My inclination is that it will break to Harriss – but then I was wrong on this 8 years ago when the polls were less close.
The polls out of Iowa (Selzer) and Kansas are suggestive of a move away from Trump potentially driven by older white women. I guess we will know in a week or so.
We will know sooner if the actual margins are greater than the virtual ties being reported from the swing states.
What gave me considerable worry was the post here some weeks ago about how polls have tended to underestimate the Republican vote by 2-3%. This is because more voters from that side refuse to answer polls. So a virtual tie in the swing states would mean Trump will win in those states by 2-3%, if this trend continues.
What we don’t really know is the extent to which the pollsters, having learnt from those experiences, have now corrected their polls for that effect.
Fair point. But they don’t say that this is factored in.
Since neither candidate meets my bar, I find it difficult to vote for either. (Note that I haven’t said which candidate I voted for, if any.)
Regarding who I think will win, I made a choice in the poll, but a coin toss would have served just as well. A third-party or write-in candidate would also be possible via a coin toss, but only if the coin lands on an edge—not very likely.
Hmm. Which would be worse?
Trump, I think, would be worse. Kamala would be the better of the two lessers.
Trump will win. Might get as many as 312 electoral college votes.
Democrats inserted a candidate who is unqualified to be president of a free republic and commander in chief of the armed forces of the United States. She is “Mamala,” but we need Prometheus.
She and her VP choice are far more radical than Dems let on. Bernie Sanders and AOC are ludicrous socialists, but Harris, despite her giggling, is the real thing, trying to make her communist parents proud. She is incompetent, but the Obamas et al will be right behind. Her tax plans are so anti-capitalist even Karl Marx is shocked. Yet … the United States is not founded as a Marxist nation.
She would not stop the flood of non-legal newcomers, and fight hard for new 2-trillion in spending, in order to keep up with Biden’s achievement in that arena. The Administrative State will bloat.
Yes, Trump is disgusting. However, he represents a resumption of the American Revolution. Red America wants that. Trump will be lame duck for 4 years, with a fierce team.
Here’s a preview: Elon Musk points out that there are 400+ Federal agencies. He has stated he will apply his engineering motto and principles of staffing to do to FedGov what he did to make X.com profitable.
Musk’s motto? “The best part is no part.”
Can’t tell if sarcastic. Using the “profitability” of X.com (or anything else he’s done to it) as a yardstick for success is kind of insane.
He saved free speech.
He what, now?
I won’t banter here. I stand by my claim. Restating: As far as “social media” goes, Elon Musk saved free speech, unlike the other big censoring social media platforms.
Vote for the scumbag; it’s important.
Which one?
Since the day Trump started running agains HRC, all he and the Republican Party have talked about is… Trump. Since then, all the Democrats talked about is Trump. And who is this Harris person, apparently running against him with the message ‘I’m NOT Donald Trump’?
It’s the Democrats who insisted on giving Trump universal name recognition. But with Trump, there is really no such thing as bad publicity. Advertising works. Free advertising is the best kind.
I just voted for the sane candidate. I’m not that thrilled with her but his behavior and mental state is beyond belief. I’m also prochoice.
I just hope she won’t cater to the far left of the party.
Basically, I’m just voting against Trump here.
It will probably be a narrow win for Harris but then the shenanigans will begin.
I guess I’m never an optimist…
She IS the far left of the party.
My state (Arizona) takes the right to choose away from the candidates. We can vote yes for right to abortion and still vote for a conservative or 3rd party candidate. I believe this is the case in many states. No?
I’m speaking of the proposition process
Is there a ballot item about legalizing abortion in Arizona? I think that could help the Democratic vote. I believe the item is on the ballot in Missouri, and the Republicans fought hard to keep it off.
Yes, Mark, there is. I worked on it (circulated petitions) and it seems almost certain to pass.
I am reading all the stories about voting issues, and am very concerned that the Dems will, in fact, steal the election. The latest is that four counties in Georgia (Fulton, Cobb, DeKalb and Gwinnett) illegally allowed voting over the weekend and kicked out Republican poll watchers.
Beware disinformation,
From APNEWS:
“The Fulton County lawsuit was filed late Friday and cited a section of Georgia law that says ballot drop boxes cannot be open past the end of advance voting, which ended Friday. But state law says voters can deliver their absentee ballots in person to county election offices until the close of polls at 7 p.m. on Election Day. Despite that clear wording, lawyer Alex Kaufman initially claimed in an emergency hearing Saturday that voters aren’t allowed to hand-deliver absentee ballots that were mailed to them.
Kaufman then argued that voters should be blocked from hand-delivering their ballots between the close of early in-person voting on Friday and the beginning of Election Day on Tuesday, even though he said it was fine for ballots to arrive by mail during that period. It has long been the practice for Georgia election offices to accept mail ballots over the counter.
Fulton County Superior Court Judge Kevin Farmer, in an online hearing, repeatedly rejected Kaufman’s arguments before orally ruling against him.
“I find that it is not a violation of those two code sections for a voter to hand-return their absentee ballots,” Farmer said.
Republicans have been focused on the conduct of elections in Fulton County for years, after President Donald Trump falsely blamed Fulton County workers for defrauding him of the 2020 election in Georgia.”
They arent stealing anything. And you should never believe a word out of Trumps mouth, or any of his cronies. He lies, and then when called on it, lies more.
Same with his party.
Republicans (of a certain bent) have been signalling for months that they won’t accept defeat and will claim malpractice whether there’s evidence or not. So understandably it’s difficult to take this kind of allegation seriously.
I once read a story about a carpenter that walks on water. I read another about a wizard who fought a Balrog of Morgoth atop the Misty Mountains. Another time I read a story about a guy with the powers of a spider who fights crime.
Sources, please.
You made me LOL for real. Good one!
And of course that far-left, Marxist-aligned Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger is allowing this travesty to happen, saying, “Under state law, election officials can receive absentee ballots in person at govt facilities if the county chooses. Several counties have chosen to do this. We are working with the counties and the political parties to ensure this is done transparently and within Georgia law.”
How dare those counties try to make it easier for their residents to turn in their valid absentee ballots! Voting is a privilege that should be very, very difficult to do. In fact, the date of election day should be changed every year so that people have to stop by polling places every day until they chance upon the correct day.
Wait, what am I saying? That still makes it too easy! The location of the polling places should change every year – and not be announced! Then only the real patriots will be able to cast their votes!
Heck, we should just do away with elections and appoint Trump President-for-Life. After all, the U.S. is a republic, not a democracy!
This can be examined by an easy test :
Ask how to check how your own votes were recorded.
I saw someone trying this – you think it’d work. I have to check mine again – it might be recorded, but can’t recall at the moment.
Not a slam-dunk test, but it’d mean something.
I voted for Harris because she’s tough, smart, and actually educated as an economist. The US economy has turned in an amazing performance over the past 4 years, and the Democrats should take all credit for that. Trump’s economic and immigration “plans” will set off even higher prices for consumers.
I think Harris will win, and I’m not usually an optimist.
On balance, I hope you are right. But even if that is so she will likely have lost both the House and the Senate, or lost one and a split on the other. That means Harris won’t be able to do much other than saving us from Trump.
If Ms. Harris is all of that, then why am I hearing so little about her plans? Her campaign is running on Trump, which indicates no confidence in her own position. How should I be convinced that her way is the way forward, when apparently she isn’t?
sublation
Whoever wins will have the task of presiding over an electorate that is functionally ungovernable. We really need a transformative character with incredible (some would say elite) political skills to lead us out of this clusterf**k. That is, a moderator who can guide us back together as a nation. What we are going to get is either a deranged maniac who wants to burn it all down or a placeholder who will not even acknowledge that problems exist (aside from racism and Republicans). We keep kicking the can down the road on a lot of serious problems in this country and we’re running out of road.
Edit: Sorry.This comment/question was intended for Mary Ann (#9) You must be living in a different US than me. My rent doubled, as did my auto insurance, I cannot buy what I like to eat as groceries have become unaffordable. Which state do you live in? Maybe I’ll move there. No sarcasm intended.
Hmm. What does the federal government have to do with local zoning regulations and building codes? They’re the reason that there’s a housing shortage. I appreciate your unhappiness about your rent, but you’re angry at the wrong government. Burn down city hall, if you must.
Burn down city hall, if I must? Who are you? You must not have read many of my comments. I would never burn anything down. I don’t appreciate that kind of talk. I honestly see no connection between what I wrote and your remark. I asked Mary Ann which state she lived in because I am looking to relocate. Why would you say something so rude to me? And I’m not angry at anyone!
Abstaining from voting is honestly indefensible when the opponent is Trump. It was always indefensible, and sentiments like that have been known to cost expected winners elections because too many stayed home thinking it was in the bag.
The stuff about being in a democratic state neglects to consider how important it is that a clear message is sent to all the conspiracy nutters who continue to claim (and will claim again, especially if it’s close in the popular vote) that the system is rigged against Trump. The US needs a landslide in favor of Kamala.
Not to mention the fact that for the vast majority of people they don’t get the perfect candidate they want. Often times elections are, to the majority of voters, about voting in the person who they like the most among the two competitors. Sad you didn’t get the candidate that agreed with you on everything, you still should go and vote.
+1,000,000,000,000,000
Our local newspaper had a lovely letter to the editor recently, which seems apropos here:
“The rant in recent political letters, and claims of the moral ideological high ground, have really caused me to re-examine my entire worldview and be more sympathetic to the causes expressed — said no one, ever!”
Bill Maher worthy post Kristin. Ty.
To piggyback on Mikkel’s comment:
“Voting isn’t marriage. It’s public transport. You’re not waiting for “the one”. You’re getting on the bus. And if there isn’t one going exactly to your destination, you don’t stay home and sulk. You take the one that’s going closest to where you want to be.” Mohamad Safa
I voted 99% against Trump and 1% for Harris. If the Dems lose they will only have themselves to blame. I said Trump will win because so many educated and professional people I know are voting for Trump. He attracts more than uneducated white men.
All democracies eventually die. It may be our turn to transition to on oligarchy of billionaires. I hope I am wrong.
I have my fingers crossed for KH but have mentally prepared myself for DT part deux. I am a fan of neither but DT is completely, utterly unacceptable. In either case, I expect the republic to survive.
I am not a US citizen so cannot vote but if I could it would definitely be for Harris. She is not the best that could have run for the Dems but ces’t la vie.
The weird electoral college system really makes it easier to game the system. If it was dependant on the total popular vote there would be a much better chance that Harris would win.
I’m also not a USA citizen, from New Zealand instead.
My understanding is that our laws will not allow a bankrupt to stand for parliament. Or a convicted criminal. Or someone with questionable psychological health.
There’s less concern about age, but unless they actually started a party – cough (Winston Peters) cough – I don’t believe they would be even considered as head of state.
Unless the average IQ of the USA is much less than I understand to be the case, I just can’t understand why there is even a question of who should be the next president.
Just a comment, it’s not contributing much…
Sure, Trump tried to overthrow our system of government rather than admit his election loss. And sure, he promised that we would be #1 so much we’d get sick of it, and then made us #1 at being sick (and having citizens die) during Covid. But the price of eggs is too high! Where’s your sense of priorities?
Voted Harris, but putting a little more probability on a Trump win.
We will not get on a path back to political sanity until the Left reckons with its culpability for Trump and his MAGA movement. Contrary to what seems to be the fashionable belief, the man is no fascist, but a Harris victory might very well awaken talent far more dangerous than the Trump of feverish dreams.
For a long-but-fascinating take on our political moment, one could do worse than revisit George Orwell—not the work you might be expecting:
https://musaalgharbi.substack.com/p/book-review-the-road-to-wigan-pier
His interview on BARpod last month is worth a listen. Spirited commentary too.
https://www.blockedandreported.org/p/episode-230-why-liberal-elites-have
I agree with you that the left created Trump. Too many people have been shut out and condescended to for too long. You can’t insult and ignore half the population without some sort of reactionary movement rising up.
Trump is Trump’s fault, along with the patriotic party – the republicans, who don’t seem to actually care about law and order, democracy, science, truth…
I always saw the Maga movement (of which I am not a member) as a backlash to Obama.
Republicans created Trump and MAGA and created a Frankenstein’s monster that destroyed the party. Reagan got into the political bed with the Religious Right. The neoconservatives got Shrub Bush into office and used him like a puppet to start wars. I blame John McCain for putting Caribou Barbie on his presidential ticket, which opened up the floodgates for the truly inept and detached-from-reality Republicans we have today. Examples include Marjorie Taylor Greene, Lauren Boebert, Matt Gaetz, and others who twist reality (Jewish space lasers) and insist the Jan. 6 riot was just excited tourists. Forty years ago you had serious GOP candidates, not brain dead ex-football players or coaches running for or getting elected to the Senate. Fanatic cults wind up eating their own, and that is the best hope for the demise of Trump and MAGA.
Trump is many things. A symbol of fake manhood for insecure men, a means of power for the fake Christians to inflict their beliefs on the country, a road to tax cuts for corporations and the rich, and an appointer of judges for groups like the Heritage Foundation and the Federalist Society. He’s basically a dangerous but useful idiot for many Americans.
Yes, and he is all those things, too.
An excellent book to read about all this mess is “Mindf*ck: Cambridge Analytica and the plot to break America, written by Chris Wylie.
Bannon is, or was the head of this sordid snake, and he has always been about destroying and changing cultures.
The Social Media debacles of the 2010-2020 period allowed him and corrupt data analysts, along with willing social media platforms, to create the mess you are in now. Its the same mess that got poor African countries in to a lot of trouble. And its working here, among republicans.
Psych is my field, and the research used to analyze social media data, and manipulate you is very real, and in some cases can be done by undergrads.
The far left did make dispensing with facts when their often ridiculous narratives would do, a fashionable thing yes.
But in the end, we are each responsible to do our own homework and think critically. In fact much more americans knowing how to think critically would have made sure Trump never arose to power.
And yet, here the scum is once again.
The media effect leading up to the election has been interesting to observe. As many people have mentioned, the vote against Trump, driven by fear, has led people to disregard the obvious issues with Harris in terms of her policies and political leanings. There is a hive-mind about Trump based on a lot of half-truths and misrepresentation of what he said. When I hear people say they can’t vote for him because “he said with his own words that he’ll be a dictator” or “he’ll use troops against US citizens” or “he wants to put Liz Cheney in front of a firing squad”, I have to hand it to those who have manipulated such a large segment of the population.
By no means is he a great candidate, but in terms of policy he’s stronger, with the big exception of tariffs, which has now become a plank in both platforms instead of just the Dem’s.
Additionally, I’m intrigued by the possibility of Musk looking at the operational side of big government, though I’m sure there will be a lot of pushback from inside and outside so I’m not sure how far he could really get. Maybe an Elon Musk / Rand Paul / Tom Massie team could find some efficiencies.
The one who tried to steal the last election, who admires Putin, who sews doubt about elections (because he doesn’t care about them) … He’s the stronger candidate? Nice values you’ve got there.
“Ignorance is strength.”
Trump’s values are not mine. I merely said his policies were stronger, and that is based on my opinion of course. I don’t know if he admired Putin, but Putin didn’t attack Ukraine during the the Trump presidency, so on the basis of reality, I’d prefer to have a president who kept one country from invading another and causing thousands of deaths and billions in destruction than one under whose watch it occurred. He was also against the Nordstream pipeline which provided benefit to Russia. Actions speak louder than words (or mean tweets) for me.
He did contest the election, stupidly. I’ll certainly agree. If you’re talking J6, then there is evidence that he tried to prevent that by requesting support which was rejected by Milley and others. If you’re talking Georgia, then we’ll see how the courts parse his request to find 11k votes; was it a request to falsify records, or was it a request to check and recheck the numbers to see if there were 11k votes that were missed? It could be interpreted either way.
We’ll all be OK no matter who wins. Thanks for disagreeing with me – as long as we’re free to do so in this country, we’re doing something right. Thankfully we have guardrails in place in the form of a constitution and bill of rights to ensure that we can continue to do so.
Hopefully he or Kamala will have the election sewn up so neither one of them can sow doubt about the results.
Laudable restraint, and a very nice (double) touch in that last line after having had your supposed values attacked.
The US Supreme Court pretty much removed the guardrails.
It matters not one whit how soundly Trump is beaten. A bigger loss just means it must have been a bigger steal by a vaster conspiracy. Does anybody really doubt this?
+1
Fear
Hate
What are the drivers of any decision? Does Nate Silver incorporate these religious notions in the latest model?
Recall:
“All models are wrong, but some are useful”
Box GEP, Hunter WG, Hunter JS. 1978. Statistics for Experimenters New York: Wiley Interscience in ~1984.
Voted Harris, though not with enthusiasm, but the prospect of another Trump presidency is truly dismaying. Yet I suspect it may happen. Right now I don’t see Harris’ chances as better than a coin flip. If she wins it will feel like an upset, which in itself is shocking. And lead to the inevitable claims of “rigged” and “theft”.
But I see no point, at this stage, of debating the respective merits/dangers of the candidates. Anyone opining on here has long since made up their mind. I think this is easily the most polarized election of my lifetime (and I’m not Gen Z).
The polarization is astounding. I find it quite puzzling that we remain divided nearly 50 / 50 and have been for some time despite the radical changes—even policy reversals—in each party over the last few decades. 50 / 50. It’s almost as though we each pulled a position from our double-sided backsides and are largely required to stick with the result. Even the resorting—Kennedy types to the right, neocons (back) to the left—seems to have a chance result to it. Give or take a point here and there, it still hovers around 50 / 50.
Maybe. It remains to be seen how many of the bitter clingers, the “deplorables,” the “irredeemable,” and the “garbage” show up to vote this time. If enough of them could be bothered to get to the polls, the front-row kids would get firmly kicked out of the class.
Not a US Citizen. I am Australian. I would vote for Harris
I was in both Ireland and Scotland this year. Pretty much all of the unsolicited comments I received from those I talked with was something along the lines of “WTF, Trump? What is wrong with your country?”.
I just shrugged and shook my head.
I don’t know why people would not vote at all. Or why they would vote for Trump, the man whose foundation stole from a children’s cancer charity and was shut down, whose “university” defrauded students and was shut down, who presents himself as a manly role model but is a serial adulterer and a whiner, who sought to legally and illegally overthrow the 2020 election, who had a crazed revolving door administration, who alienated our allies, and who openly expressed grabbing women by their genitals.
At least Harris is not a deranged narcissist and she would surround herself with competent people. I’m reminded of a meme that says “I know Darth Vader went to the Dark Side and blew up a planet but I’m not sure about Luke Skywalker.”
It’s actually an easy call for Manichean wokies: I am good; good folx must not support or associate with ungood folx; Harris is plus ungood (being insufficiently pro-Hamas for one thing); Trump is doubleplus ungood; thus I can not vote for either.
For those who care, Sam Harris has just issued an endorsement of Kamala Harris. He provides a somewhat lengthy, and to my mind rather compelling, justification for taking this position. And it has nothing to do with sharing a surname.
https://samharris.substack.com/p/literally-and-seriously
I 2nd your recommendation. Unlike so many Harris has not become detached from reality.
Thank you for the Sam Harris link. It is extremely well done, and worth reading even if you have already made up your mind.
The Honestly podcast with Bari Weiss has a good debate with Sam Harris and Ben Shapiro about the candidates. It’s not going to change the mind of anyone in all likelihood, but it’s a decent and civil conversation. A couple of clever remarks were made about an ideal Harris / Shapiro ticket as well.
I can’t vote because I’m Japanese. 🇯🇵
I don’t know who will win, Donald Trump or Kamala Harris. 🇺🇸🗳🤔
I instinctively pressed the “Kamala Harris” button. ✅🐱
I love the cat altering clothes at the sewing machine. That look! It fits perfectly.
Thank goodness for Georg Ferdinand Duckwitz. And he never sought recognition for his good deeds which makes his efforts all the more worthy!
What a thread of comment.
Read too much history so here it’s one issue.
I think FT Gideon Rachman is dead wrong: “Trump, Harris and peace in our time. The two candidates have fundamentally different views about America’s global role and how to keep the peace.” For Rachman “Trump’s view of US foreign policy — like his “America first” slogan — harks back to a pre-1941 vision of the country’s role in the world.”
Rear view mirror musing? That’s 83 years ago. An eon ago. The USA [fortunately like PRC] is engaged globally like never before, like it or not. They have far more proportionately at stake than before WW2.
Also right now in two wars – both shockers, which should never have been allowed – two of the 3 global bad guys have overreached, trapped by their delusion.
Both can be defeated by a US led “Free World” at comparatively little cost, meaning 100 year historic sea change. Leaving just one.
Will Trump understand? Or stay with Isolationist Okies?
Well there seem people apparently close who you’d think do understand, re Europe, Mideast and China. Musk, Pompeo? Lutnick, Kushner, even Boris.
The Okies were poor migrants (from dust bowl states), who were generally unwelcome.
I overstepped. No doubt some fine folk among them.
Just Isolationists.
We’d likely still get there with KH but she and Biden [and BLINKEM, who should stay with the guitar] have been hopeless.
T’s a horrible man in many ways, but not a complete idiot and may just understand the hand he’s dealt here.
If by chance.
If Blinken is the A-Team, I’m glad we haven’t yet seen the B-Team of Winken and Nod.
Interesting that on a biological sciences oriented site, no on has mentioned DJT’s statement that he’d let RFK, Jr “go wild” on health care. Maybe after we Take America Back (to the 1950’s, when there was no legal abortion), we can bring back polio, measles, pediatric meningitis caused by H. flu and Pneumococcus, and other vaccine preventable diseases. That, along with J6, Trump’s admiration of Putin, Xi, Kim, his disparagement of NATO, his moral character, his grifting, his mental and physical decline, etc., etc., etc., I found it easy to vote for Harris, much as I’d prefer Whitmer, Klobuchar, Buttegieg, or many others.
Alas, it looks like a coin toss as to who will win.
Though I voted “Harris will win”, I really think that, as of the evening before, the election outcome is a coin flip. I believe that the winner will have something like 320 EV but I do not have a good feel for the direction of polling error.
I believe that the state polling error variables are correlated and will tend toward one candidate or the other.
https://x.com/japantimes/status/1850569952790737083 🇯🇵🗞
https://x.com/BBCWorld/status/1850627125650329772 🇯🇵🗞
On Sunday, October 27th, a general election was held in Japan. 🇯🇵🗳
As a result, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party suffered a major defeat. 🌀
Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party is a bit like the British Conservative Party. 🇬🇧
Right now, Japanese politics is in chaos as they are trying to form a “coalition government.” 🌀
I’m Japanese, but the US presidential election makes me very nervous. 🇺🇸🗳
Because the US president has an impact on the world. 🌎
I hope America will have a happy future. 🍀🙏🍀
Colin Wright :
“A vote for a candidate is not a Valentine.”
See his eXtwitter writing and Substack for more.
Hatecraft is a ritual magic of Hegel’s Leftism. This is important because E Pluribus Unum guarantees contradiction – the fuel of Hatecraft.
Remember the Hate Has No Home Here signs – now we know what they were for – normalization of sublated hate – repressive tolerance (Marcuse) – in The Church of Perpetual Sublation.
I concur. While the Democrats are often accused of being Marxist in their philosophy, and many are, I find the Hegelian Leftism to be much more of the guiding spirit. I don’t see a proletariat revolution being promoted, and wokism looks to me like the promotion of the Hegel rather than Marx.
Agreed, recalling that both are dialectical.
“spirit”-> “Geist”
The German captures it best, I think, as well as the capital letter – which is exactly the way Hegel expressed it.
I’m looking for the quote where Marx turns Hegel on his head – but this will be ok :
“My dialectic method is not only different from the Hegelian, but is its direct opposite. To Hegel, the life process of the human brain, i.e., the process of thinking, which, under the name of “the Idea,” he even transforms into an independent subject, is the demiurgos of the real world, and the real world is only the external, phenomenal form of “the Idea.” With me, on the contrary, the ideal is nothing else than the material world reflected by the human mind, and translated into forms of thought.”
-Karl Marx
London
January 24, 1873
Capital
Volume One
Afterword to the Second German Edition
(From marxists dot org)
… really, he wrote that. I do not make this up!
Perpetual Sublation means dialectical transformation is continuously applied, so we hear American characteristics blended in – celebrities, entertainers, to convince the audience old thought with black-and-white photos and awesome beards and mustaches is long gone, irrelevant, etc.