A couple of polls and a discussion

July 29, 2024 • 10:00 am

Like several people I know, I’m caught up in a temporary fit of the downs because the world seems to be going off kilter. I worry about politics, I worry about Israel, I worry about Ukraine, I worry about Iran and its forthcoming nukes, I worry about fulminating wokeness and its effect on science, and, well, the list goes on.  But something is keeping me awake at night. Although I don’t lie abed racked with conscious worries, my theory (which is mine) is that the worry has become internalized. Further, it’s hard, for me at least, to avoid converting the worry into anger, as it’s made me short-tempered, so I have to exert more control over my behavior.

So much for the personal stuff. But since all the stuff I have to write about is depressing (in the wings are articles about the ideological capture of chemistry, Wikipedia’s “Jewish problem”, the school curriculum in New Zealand—in other words, the kind of thing you see her regularly), there’s no light at the end of the tunnel. I’m thinking of writing about more personal stuff, just to improve my writing and go off on a different tangent. But there will always be the Hili dialogues with their daily five news items.

Do recall that on Saturday I leave for a month in South Africa, and posting will be very sparse for that month and somewhat sparse from now until Saturday.

So let’s have a couple of polls—about politics, of course. Please vote if you’re reading this and, more important, explain your feelings below if you wish.

First poll:

Who do you think will win the Presidency?

View Results

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Second poll (remember, all answers are anonymous and I don’t know who votes which way):

Right now, who do you plan to vote for?

View Results

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Weigh in below.  You needn’t tell me that this is not a scientific poll. It’s simply a survey of the readers.

120 thoughts on “A couple of polls and a discussion”

          3. Jon,

            Your comments -in general- don’t qualify as civil and opposing opinions, they are often combative shots in the dark.

            Try a bit of charm, it goes a long way.

    2. Rosemary, you are correct–but so be it for this group. I wish/hope Harris wins, but I don’t have a firm opinion, hence my answer is ‘no opinion’ yet.

  2. I discovered my body is utterly starved of exercise – possibly for decades.

    Deliberate exercise resulted in immediate improvement in ongoing sleep trouble and handling daily toil/dynamics/whatever.

    I’m not going exercise guru here – just some darn thing. Real simple. Lifting dumbbells in the kitchen, jogging if I can, but deliberate at least 5 or so minutes. But the goals are : push myself, feel the lactate, feel the heart accelerate. Then REST! It’s there!

    Make of it what one will.

    Politically, I get it – a quote:

    “Not to have a correct political point of view is like having no soul […]”

    -Mao Zedong / Mao Tse-Tung


    On the Correct Handling of Contradictions Among the People (February 27, 1957); 1st pocket ed., pp. 43-44

    As such, I will take the opposite view / reject that notion. We will never live in a contradiction-free world. In fact, we likely would not survive.

    Looking forward to South Africa! I haven’t noted that yet, but 🐗🐗🐗 is my first thought!

      2. + doble mucho
        Exercise is a wonder drug for so many things both physical and mental. Plus it gives you something else to talk about with others.

    2. Jujitsu used to be the only thing that tired me out enough to release my anger on the state of the world, but covid ended the classes. So recently took up fast-walking around the neighborhood, early before anyone is up. It helps.

      Our host explained it perfectly: “worry has become internalized… it’s hard… to avoid converting the worry into anger, as it’s made me short-tempered, so I have to exert more control over my behavior. Me too.

      1. I third that. A sense of powerlessness over so many big issues can cause a type of madness. I’m not burying my head in the sand, but I do keep media off most of the day. I find that’s tremendously helpful.
        The exercise thing IS a biggie. That was always my go to. Unfortunately, I’ve been struck with health issues that have rendered me homebound and quite inactive. Life is a trip.

        1. I also took up Tai Chi this year. Not a formal class, just once a week, but a free offering from our local library, just for seniors. I was looking for more of the martial arts aspect, but the slow movements and concentration on proper breathing have helped me to “let go of” of a lot of stuff. This instructor posts free practice videos online, and links to handpan drums music that are rather calming.

          Sorry to hear about your health issues, and I hope you find something that helps. We need something to get us through to November. As political analyst Chris Stirewalt recently said “In this political season, every day is like a week.”

          1. Thsnks for that. I remember watching a guy do that stuff in a park about half way through my long walk with the dog. It looked cool. I appreciate the reminder as I’d completely forgotten about it. Time to get creative and stop focusing on what I used to do which is depressing as heck. Good call.

  3. Yes, I’m reading this and seldom fail to pay fairly strict attention to your thoughts. As for those negative feelings you expressed, well, what can be offered to decrease their intensity? It may pay to consider that you have earned the respect of many of your readers who look forward to your posts. You are raising issues worthy of serious consideration.

  5. As a citizen of the wrong country, I didn’t answer the second poll. If, at the end, the numbers are different by one two, it’s my fault.

    Edit: Amended following my reading of reply #4

  6. I’ve started dieting. Cutting sugar and carbs with exercise. Been at it for a few weeks. Tired and out of sorts. Going to the grocery is just depressing.

    1. My thought is, if I can push myself through that burn – an incline, a weight – it will be easier with other things.

      Mind over matter is another thought here.

  7. I would vote for pretty much anyone who isn’t Trump, but I actually like Harris, and I like all of the people who have been mentioned as her possible VP picks.

    I’m terribly worried about the world, the country, the rise of the right, the state of the environment, and a whole slew of other things, and my prediction that Harris will win is more of a hope than it is a true prediction. It’s just too depressing to me to think that Trump will win.

  8. I also wanted to add that this newsletter and the people who post on here in the comments keep me hopeful and sane, and I think it’s a huge service that you provide. I am sure the daily wading into it isn’t easy and only adds to your malaise and anger. Thank you for the newsletter and the great group of people who come together to read it.

  9. I worry about exactly the same things! Part of the reason is that my concerns are reinforced here. It would be interesting to know whether I would have the same worries with the same magnitude if I had not been participating here, but I’m glad I have been participating, as it has helped me form and defend my positions.

    While the state of the world concerns me, I try not to let it get me down. I avoid feeling miserable by diverting some of my concern to the “interesting” category (rather than the “hopeless” category) and thinking that most of the problems will recede into the background as conditions change. I don’t think they will necessarily be solved, but problems wax and wane in intensity as new problems come to the fore and grab the world’s attention.

  10. I’m a student of history and thus I take the long view — moral progress has never been a straight line, but it’s undeniably real just the same. Yes, we have been in a moral downslope for a few years but from decade to decade, and certainly from century to century and millennium to millennium, the direction is up. So hang in there.

    Also, I have been dabbling in (modern) Stoic philosophy, which has really helped me with difficult people and difficult situations.

  11. I am afraid that the readers of this site are far too optimistic about the Dems winning. At the same time, I feel funny using the word ‘optimistic’ with respect to Harris. I’ll be voting for her because the only thing I dread more than a Harris presidency is a Trump presidency. It’s easy to see why our host is depressed.

    1. In my many years (I’m over 70) I’ve never a US election with such poor candidates as Trump & Harris.

      (I’m a Canadian so I won’t be voting but just thought I’d note it.)

      1. Trump and the current Biden were worse. Harris has now made the choice clear for those who were on some strange fence.

    2. I was also surprised about the slant of the votes. I would be very happy to be wrong, but I think the Orange One will still probably win.

  12. J.D. Vance has written the forward for a book, “Dawns Early Light”, a book by Kevin Roberts, the architect of Project 2025. Vance is a supporter of Project 2025. This book is scheduled to be published in September. This may be a problem for Vance. “Weirdo” may not be a label that is a problem for Vance. “Project 2025 supporter” will be. And Trump will be forced to do some fancy tap dancing here also. I suspect Harris is going to play this hard. Meanwhile, Taylor Swift’s blog has been relabeled officially “a cat blog”. Expect eventual Harris endorsement.

  14. When my anxiety about the world and overwhelming evidence to support it creep into my brain and I notice that it is affecting my behavior and those I love and respect, I recall some things Ma use to tell me: Sometimes the universe does not behave the way you want, be what you want the world to be, take a long walk in the woods and remember you are surrounded by joy (psst-let it in!). Besides, what else can you do?… Then do it.

    She was born in 1917 and made it to over 99 years. She saw much depravity in the world and suffered some in her time. Yet she considered herself extremely fortunate. Maybe just a cockeyed optimist. But what good does my anxiety do?

    Like the Grateful Dead said “such a short time to be here and long time to be gone…”

    1. Writer comes to mind : John Burroughs – friend of Whitman. Sort of atheist but still spiritual or what have you.

      1. Funny, I came across Burroughs’s name just today, in a history of Daggett, California, a Mojave desert mining town he visited in 1911.

  15. I have no opinion on who will win. The polls are too close, and each candidate is loathed by tens of millions of people. That said, Trump has what Harris lacks: tens of millions adore him. But it is Trump, and he is always capable of turning good fortune into disaster.

    As to who I will vote for: Early in my military career, I adopted the practice of George C. Marshall and other senior military leaders and refrained from voting. They did so not only because they had to work for the commander-in-chief no matter the party, but because they believed it important for the military to remain apolitical under our system of government. It is easier to achieve this when you don’t choose teams. In any case, I lacked their discipline, and after sitting out a couple of elections, I began to vote. Nevertheless, I adopted two rules. First, always being stationed away from my home state of residence, I chose to never vote for a state-wide or local office. Second, I don’t tell anyone who I vote for—to include my wife of many, many years—nor do I ask it of her.

    Now retired, I have retained the latter practice. I find it useful in discussing, criticizing, and praising across the political aisles. Of course, when you won’t publicly commit, the partisans of each side usually assume you are on the “wrong” team!

    https://www.marshallfoundation.org/articles-and-features/george-marshall-and-the-u-s-presidency/

      1. I vote for civilization, which is made possible by a balance between individualism and collective needs. Steven Pinker explains it well.

      1. Rockin’ and a rollin’. Unfortunately it seems to be a stallin’. Nevermind…

  16. As Woody Allen said: “We stand at a crossroads. One path leads to despair, the other to destruction. Let’s hope we make the right choice.” I’ve heard that in another version, with a choice between nuclear disaster and catastrophic climate change. Take your pick…

  17. I chose Harris both polls because I have to tap into hope for my country. TFG and his supporters are truly an existential threat. The state of the world does depress me. I tell myself I will take a break from the news occasionally but rarely succeed.

    Appreciate your work here. I look forward to your posts everyday. Thanks so much for the insights and discussions you create on this site.

  18. I hope you’re able to relax on your upcoming vacation. Try not to worry. As a determinist, what happens is and always will happen (as if I need to tell you that). Try to go for the Alfred E. Newman mindset: “what, me worry?” That’s a motto I live by…or at least aspire to.

    When it comes to Trump, I’d vote for a wet noodle before I’d consider that wreck of a human being, so the poll was a no-brainer.

  19. There are still too many variables for me to predict the election winner. I’d love to see Harris and Trump debate. Someone suggested people write in Mike Pence for President but I am going to follow my feminist bent to write in Liz Cheney. I live in a red county in Texas so it win’t matter.

    2. Interesting…
      I came across a suggestion that Kamala should choose Liz Cheney for VP. At first I was all like “Liz Cheney???!!!!” And then I was all like “Liz … Cheney …… Hmmmm….” 🤔

        1. I agree that Harris should not choose a woman. But I don’t understand talk about how America is reluctant to vote for even one woman. Nationwide in 2016 Hillary got 3 million more votes than Trump.
          If it wasn’t for our stupid electoral college system, she would have become president. Harris has plenty of issues other than her female sex.

  20. I’m sorry you feel this way, Jerry. I actually had to take a break from reading the website and the news in general in order to not feel this way!! Everything that is happening is so depressive. I really like the comment that said that you do important work. I’m very grateful for all you write and I hope you can find ways to not get so affected by it.

  21. I feel the exact same worries and it is very much of a downer for me.
    I will be voting for Kamala Harris but regrettably. I think she leans more to the progressive side politically which I used to be but certainly not now.

    I am extremely worried about anti-Semitism. Although this is a fear I’ve always had. I never had any interest in Israel until all this hate towards Jews. I think she will not be good for Israel, but Trump is incredibly dangerous in my view. I feel a bit politically homeless for the first time in my life. I saw an old Instagram post where Harris spoke at a mosque and said something to the effect of, we have to stop using the term Islamic extremists. Oy! Not good for the kind of brain I happened to have.

    1. She’s pandering, one hopes not seriously, just to win Michigan. Will the Islamist extremists vote for her, hoping empty words will morph (payback) into foreign policy action? Or will she just follow her boss’s course once she learns America’s deepest secrets on being sworn in*, and play at hectoring Mr. Netanyahu ineffectually from the sidelines? Who knows?

      She may need the Islamist extremist vote to win, but surely not to stay in power. Perhaps she will throw them under the bus and rely on the incumbent advantage to win in 2028 without them.
      ———————-
      * Harry Truman learned about the Manhattan Project only upon FDR’s death.

  22. Not that my vote for Harris will mean anything. I live in a deep, deep red state and its Electoral College votes are certainly going for Trump.

  23. I share your concerns but happily I don’t lose much sleep. I have found that in general I feel calmer and more relaxed since I changed to a mostly vegetarian Mediterranean way of eating about 2 1/2 years ago. I have also increased my exercise which I know can also boost mood. These are certainly challenging times in which to maintain one’s emotional equilibrium and equanimity. I hope that your trip gives you a boost. Take care and safe travels.

  24. I see the positive energy coming out of the Harris nomination which this country hasn’t seen in quite a while, and I am content to enjoy it in the moment. Too many variables beyond my control make further speculation pointless.

    I agree about philosophy’s intrusion into science being a big problem. I don’t, however, see that as one-sided. The situations you write about are real and potentially very damaging. At the same time, I am acutely aware of Project 2025’s intention to disband, or at least cripple, the weather service, for which I have been a volunteer for nearly 33 years. I couldn’t figure out what they could possibly have against the weather service, until I read that for them, the weather service is the source of “all that climate change hysteria”. I think denial about situations that are real is as much of a threat as DEI in academia. I hope that at some point reality might again have some value.

    I am greatly looking forward to whatever you might post about your trip – scenery, meals, etc. I love being able to travel with you without having to actually go anywhere. So, thank you for that.

    L

    1. I agree about philosophy’s intrusion into science being a big problem.

      I suppose you mean ideology not philosophy.

      Your weather story reminded me of Jane Lubchenco saying that a member of Congress told her that he doesn’t need weather satellites because he watches the Weather Channel.

      I am also reminded of Steven Weinberg’s encounters with congress, which he recounted in Dreams of a Final Theory.

      Even so, given the success of the country, US politicians must be among the best in the world.

  25. Going by what they have said and done, I cannot support Trump or Harris, and will vote for Chase Oliver, as the less evil option.

    1. Due to the stupid U.S. electoral system, your vote will not do anything positive, and would be better used if cast for whomever of the two candidates you find better (i.e. less bad). No, even if so many people vote for someone else that it affects the election results, it won’t change anything. Gore would have won if Nader had not run.

      1. Suggest caution in calling your own electoral system stupid. If the “stupid” system elects the “wrong” candidate does that mean you don’t regard the election as legitimate and want your fellows to think the same? Consider that if the popular vote mattered, the other side in landslide states might come out to vote instead of staying home. Can you imagine if the Republican vote in California or Illinois mattered in a close race, especially if the GOP had an incentive to campaign there? (Also think how expensive campaigning would be if both candidates had to chase every single vote across the nation.)

        Both candidates are playing by the same rules, vying for the same battleground states, ignoring the citadel states, theirs and their opponents. If the rules were different they would both campaign differently. Whoever loses under those rules still loses.

        1. It is a stupid system when one party, the Republican Party, is able to win without earning the most votes. They haven’t won the popular presidential vote since Bush barely squeaked by Kerry in 2004. And Bush lost the popular vote in 2000 but was still given the presidency.

          Also, the Democratic half of the Senate represents 40 million more Americans than the Republican half. The system is badly skewed toward the minority party.

          1. But those are the rules: the national popular vote doesn’t count. It’s reported for entertainment value, and also to check the predictive accuracy of opinion polling which is a big competitive business. You can’t play by those rules, lose the election, and then claim the rules aren’t fair, or that they’re stupid because your candidate lost. That’s essentially to deny the results of an election. Rather, what the aggrieved party needs to do is figure out how to make its platform more attractive to people who don’t live in big woke cities and vote as a bloc. Or physically move some of its supporters out of states that it wins by useless landslides and get them into states where a few thousand more Democrats could tip the scales and win a raft of electoral votes. California would still be reliably Democratic but isn’t this what is actually happening to Arizona, Colorado, and Georgia, maybe even Texas?

            The Democrats have to resign themselves to needing, what, a 2% edge in popular vote in order to overcome the current Republican Electoral College advantage. Tough. The EC isn’t going anywhere. So the Dems have to figure out how to overcome that handicap if they want to elect the President. It shouldn’t be hard when they have a machine that delivers 90% of black voters, two-thirds of unmarried women, and all of Hollywood and the intelligentsia into the Democratic column.

      2. As another Chase Oliver voter, I must strongly disagree. Chase beat the spread and forced a runoff in a Georgia election that was ultimately won by a Democrat. He has the potential to beat the spread in several swing states. That’s how a minor party gets influence over the duopoly parties.

        Further, the only wasted vote is for someone you don’t support. I’m voting FOR Oliver, not AGAINST Trump.

        1. I love this (your) way of thinking. I wish more voters adopted it. Just imagine what we could accomplish if more did. I’m with you!

        2. Exactly. I’m voting also for Chase Oliver. When people tell me that I’m wasting my vote, I always say that if you vote for someone who does not represent your views, that’s wasting your vote.

  26. In my case, worry has also become internalized, so I often deal with insomnia and depression. Some of my worries are the same, especially the dread if Trump is elected again, but also issues like book banning, climate change, the probability of election denial and fraud, plus personal issues. Sometimes my dreams highlight one issue or the other.
    My vote for Harris in your poll indicates a hope, rather than a conviction, as I know the MAGAs will be out in force. I can only hope there are more than sufficient voters who will counteract that. Jennifer Rubin has an excellent oped in the “Washington Post” today about how radical the Trump/Vance ideas about women are and how, she hopes, they will prompt women and enlightened men to vote against that team.

  28. As for my prediction (Trump), I’m just going with the betting markets, which are currently giving Trump the edge over Harris with about 60:40 odds.

    I think a Harris presidency could be an existential threat to Israel, so I would not vote for her, even against Trump. I have the luxury of living in a solid blue state where my vote for president doesn’t count. I am planning, therefore, to cast a protest vote, probably for Kennedy.

      1. I still wouldn’t voter for her. I’ll vote Democrat again when the party throws its progressive wing under the bus where it belongs.

        1. Jay, that’s likely where I am heading. Protest vote. +1

          I will vote DEM again (never voted for any when the party before) when the party figures out what a woman is, supports womens’ sex based rights, gets savvy on Israel and adopts a sane immigration policy. This means the DEMS must throw the lunatic fringe under the bus, or least show meaningful signs of doing so.

  29. I subscribe to Heather Cox Richardson’s Substack as it is very informative and somewhat optimistic, which is something this pessimist needs.

    As to Harris, until Trump picked Vance I thought there was no way she would beat Trump. The “x” remaining in the equation is who she ( or Obama, Pelosi, Schumer et al pick for her) picks for VP.  If “she” picks Kelly, I think her chances improve. That said, I probably  wouldn’t vote for her over most any candidate from the GOP.  I found Andrew Sullivan’s substack quite informative (another that I subscribe to).  The Trumpers have a lot to work with in this campaign, if they can ever get past the insults.

    https://andrewsullivan.substack.com/p/the-kamala-chimera?utm_campaign=email-half-post&r=ks2c2&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

    In my view, all the Trumpers need to do is send marketing crews to the West Coast and show what happens to states when they are ruled by liberals, and they will win.  This is something even Nicholas Kristof indirectly acknowledges:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/15/opinion/progressives-california-portland.html

    Harris and the MSM may be overstating her reputation.  One hears about her being a tough prosecutor taking on this or that crime ring.  She spent much of her prosecutor days as the DA and the Attorney General, positions that are generally administrative and set policy.  Is she claiming successful prosecutions because she set them as priorities, leaving to the trial staff to do the real work?.  I wonder how many jury trials she prosecuted where she would deserve the credit for “going after” a criminal or crime ring.

    This quote from her Wiki page does not help all that much as to the years she  was a trial attorney.  For example, when she was the head of the career criminal unit where she “supervised” 5 attorneys, did she  try the cases or did she just supervise the staff of 5 that actually did.

    “In 1990, Harris was hired as a deputy district attorney in Alameda County, California, where she was described as “an able prosecutor on the way up”.[58] In 1994, Speaker of the California Assembly Willie Brown, who was then dating Harris, appointed her to the state Unemployment Insurance Appeals Board and later to the California Medical Assistance Commission.[58] Harris took a six-month leave of absence in 1994 from her duties, then afterward resumed working as prosecutor during the years she sat on the boards. Harris’s connection to Brown was noted in media reportage as part of a pattern of California political leaders appointing “friends and loyal political soldiers” to lucrative positions on the commissions. Harris has defended her work.[58][59][60]

    In February 1998, San Francisco district attorney Terence Hallinan recruited Harris as an assistant district attorney.[61] There she became the chief of the Career Criminal Division, supervising five other attorneys, where she prosecuted homicide, burglary, robbery, and sexual assault cases – particularly three-strikes cases. In 2000, Harris reportedly clashed with Hallinan’s assistant, Darrell Salomon,[62] over Proposition 21, which granted prosecutors the option of trying juvenile defendants in Superior Court rather than juvenile courts.[63] Harris campaigned against the measure, which passed. Salomon opposed directing media inquiries about Prop 21 to Harris and reassigned her, a de facto demotion. Harris filed a complaint against Salomon and quit.[64]

    In August 2000, Harris took a job at San Francisco City Hall, working for city attorney Louise Renne.[65] Harris ran the Family and Children’s Services Division representing child abuse and neglect cases. Renne endorsed Harris during her D.A. campaign.[66]”

    Anyway, I am not convinced about her legal reputation, especially since since she thinks more police will not improve public safety as described in Sullivan’s article.

    Her support is for the medical and surgical transformation of children would normally be an automatic disqualifier for me, but for the fact she is running against Trump.  (See the links in the Sullivan article.)

    In my view, both parties have turned to their extremes and in the process scraped the bottom of the barrel to find a candidate.  The next 4 years could be a disaster no matter who wins.

    Just my 2 cents.  dj 

  30. I’m European so voting your poll was wrong, sorry. Anyway now that I’m here I would like to say I would vote for Harris, out of desperation, but every time I saw one of her speeches she sounded incompetent, very awkward, sometimes “what am I doing here” dumb. How come? Only when she said she isn’t afraid of Trump because she knows criminals, there I liked her

  31. I predict Harris will win. I won’t vote for her.
    I don’t fear a Trump presidency nor do I fear a Harris presidency. For those of you who do, take a step back and see that your emotions are being manipulated. Read Manufacturing Consent – media are being used for social control. Rather than being fearful of some unknown future consequence of the election, be angry that your emotions have been played by politicians and the media in such a way that damages your life and psyche while enriching theirs, then go find a way to extricate yourself from that bubble.
    Note: Chomsky seems to put more weight on commercial business manipulation and is an anarcho-syndicalist, but you can apply his points to either side.

    I believe that whoever loses will accuse the other side of election fraud or voter tampering or something along those lines. If Trump wins, I expect CNN-style “mostly peaceful protests”.

    Regarding the comments about Project 2025, there are parts of it that are standard republican platform items, and others that are small-government libertarian items, and others that are Christian-leaning policy proposals. Trump has said he doesn’t know much about it, and if you think that Trump is going to listen to anyone, including the Heritage Foundation, then I’ve got a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you. He’s a center-right blowhard with many policies more aligned with traditional democrat positions than republican.

    3. He certainly listened to the Heritage Foundation when nominating SCOTUS justices.
      I doubt Trump himself has any ‘policies’. Whomever flatters him most effectively will have his ear, as always.

  33. I echo the many comments above about the immense impact of this site. It is the first one I check in the morning, and the last one I look at before I zonk out at night. I value your honesty and the way in which you portray and face up to the issues, however depressing they might be.

    Everyone copes with the world in different ways. The missus and I try to go for a long walk two or three times a week, somewhere in the countryside surrounding the town where we live. We’ve walked all the footpaths many times, but each time is different. I’m not a great fan of ‘mindfulness’, but looking at a few simple things – a field of ripe barley, say, or a hovering kestrel – doesn’t half take your mind off the woes of the world.

  34. I try to be stoic, but what I’ve noticed is that I’ve mostly become numb. I find little pleasure in simple things anymore. Perhaps that’s also what happens in old age, I don’t know.

    I do try to stand back and look at the arc of human existence, in which civilizations constantly rise and fall. It shouldn’t be surprising that the US is failing, that is in the normal course of human affairs. Even if Trump is defeated this time, eventually some more credible autocrat will find a way to seize power. The public is too easily fooled.

    Whether humanity survives the more existential threats it has created for itself is an open question. But that will likely occur after my corporal existence has passed.

  35. After Biden dropped out and Harris took his place, Trump’s previous lead in the polls was nearly erased, which to me shows that Harris is seen in a far more positive light than Biden had been. In the past week she’s shown some real strengths as a candidate and the surge of enthusiasm for her is considerable. So given Trump’s awful negatives I think she can and will win in November.

    As a moderate Democrat I’m happy to vote for Harris as a sensible progressive, and think she’s got a more unified Democratic Party behind her, while Trump’s own dictatorial tendencies have alienated some Republicans who might vote for an (R) House or Senate candidate but not Trump, and that will be critical in the so-called battleground states. That Harris was a former prosecutor means she can effectively attack Trump for his fraudulent and now felonious past too. The camera also loves Harris I think, no small thing in politics these days.

    So for the first time since that debate back on June 27th, I’m feeling more optimistic about the future. Of course a lot can happen by Election Day…

  36. I’m surprised by the initial vote results as of my Pacific time at almost 1:30pm on Monday. Excluding Jerry’s own comments, if I were to judge his website just by those who most often post political comments, I would think it was Trump-leaning, or at least Republican-leaning. Curious.

  38. I’ve had chronic low level anxiety my whole life punctuated with two acute anxiety attacks in my 30’s (I’m 64 now). I feel like I was born with it. My dad had it. I don’t know if it’s inherited or learned behavior or a bit of both.

    For me it seems the biggest help has been learning to let go of control. But there’s a catch 22 in that any attempt to let go of control is itself an act of control. In fact my second acute attack happened when I was trying to force myself to relax and let go. The harder I tried the more anxious I got and it developed into a full on acute anxiety attack.

    Both my acute attacks were stopped by xanax which worked brilliantly well for me. But long term for me if feels like watching my mind and learning about it and then letting my best understanding act without me trying to control anything has been the biggest help and my anxiety level is far lower now than it once was. Over the years of course many things change and it’s hard to tell exactly what caused what but learning to let go has certainly felt key for me.

    I feel similarly about acting in the wider world. Quick change can happen through force and control and is sometimes necessary but the most durable positive change comes about by spreading wider and deeper understanding. Which is why I so very much like this website.

  39. Jerry, you should consider minimizing screen time when in South Africa. Your mood will greatly improve, especially if you can get out in nature and walk every day.

    As far as the candidates go, both are performative-focused political actors without the seriousness and conscientiousness to be even borderline competent as POTUS. I will hold my nose and vote for Trump based on the differences in the parties’ energy policies. The energy transition will take much longer than they think and the Democrats’ green policies will degrade our standard of living and penalize innovation that might enable us to achieve a workable transition.

    The 900 lb. gorilla in the room is the impending debt crisis. Within a decade or two, the interest on our debt will be more than the country takes in in total income taxes. We can’t inflate our way out of it. We can’t tax our way out of it. We can’t confiscate the billionaires’ loot and pay for it. Collapse will come, and what this will look like on the other side is unknown. If these candidates have addressed this issue I haven’t heard it. This keeps me awake at night because I have children and grandchildren.

    On the bright side, I’m old and will be dead soon.

    1. I’m a bit puzzled by the reference to energy policy and the “transition,” since Trump has made it clear that there will be no “transition,” and the U.S. will rely exclusively on fossil fuels under MAGA rule. Under Biden, by contrast, renewable energy has been pursued while the U.S. has been producing a record level of oil. That ought to satisfy both the ‘green’ supporters of renewables and the interests vested in fossil fuels, should it not?

      The more important issue for me is that Trump is the most vile, unqualified, dishonest, criminal individual ever to serve as president— he was recently named the worst president in U.S. history, and the fact that any rational, decent voter would support him is bewildering. Even members of his own administration, including cabinet members, have warned against ever allowing him to hold office again. Too many of those administration members who do support him have ended up in prison.

    2. “We can’t confiscate the billionaires’ loot and pay for it.”

      Why not?
      People have been fretting over the debt for decades and decades. I can’t ever remember a time (I’m 55) when the “debt crisis” wasn’t a concern. I don’t get worked up over it. If you have children/grandchildren, I’d be much more worried about climate change than an amorphous collapse caused by debt.

      1. Yep, climate change is real. More devastating fires here in Canada. It’s been so warm and dry over the winter.

        I can remember the climate when I was a teenager, 60 years ago.

        I get impatient with the deniers.

        2. You do realize that climate change, real as it is, is a made-in-Asia problem, though, right? It shouldn’t rationally affect voting decisions in North America or Europe. We should extract oil and gas according to our economic needs, just as we grow wheat and broccoli according to what sells.

          Ontario’s Independent Electricity System Operator has concluded, twice, that Ontario cannot replace its gas turbines with windmills without suffering blackouts especially if the provincial government also wants to “electrify everything” — that’s actually the slogan — with millions of new immigrants pouring into the province and several nuclear plants going to need refueling and life extension later this decade. Ontario is just not all that windy. Will Ontarians choose blackouts while China and India burn coal and make cement with abandon? I guess we’ll have to see.

          1. Yes there’s no simple solution and yes, China and India are a big problem.

            I don’t know what the solution is.

      2. Yes! The debt crisis only comes up when Democrats are in power, then Republicans start screaming about it.. When Republicans are in charge, they feel free to run up the debt with no concern for the “debt crisis”.

  40. When writing for this site and deep diving into conflict, hypocrisy, the perpetually offended, hate, and we don’t see what has been binned, keeping the site free of the worst of the human, it is little wonder Herr Host you feel mentally exhusted from it.
    Clearing the way for us readers to organize ourselves is something I am extremely grateful for. Thank you Prof.(E)

  41. Hoping not to offend Jerry about the number of posts today, I would like to point out that “conservative” Robert Zubrin has come out full-force on X-Twitter for Harris. On July 26 he wrote:

    “I’m a conservative. I voted for Ronald Reagan twice, for GW Bush twice, for John McCain, Mitt Romney, & Nikki Haley.”
    “I’m voting for Kamala Harris because we need to defend the free world and can’t do it with a corrupt treasonous Putin-allied lunatic pervert in the White House.”

    Robert Zubrin is a major figure in the community of people who want to colonize Mars, so I imagine that he might be pissing off Elon Musk.

    Today Zubrin — whose home page lists him as a “freethinker” — noted that his post has gone beyond a million views. I wrote in response: “Interesting! I’ve been pro-space most of my 75 years (almost as soon as I could read). I’m way more politically left than you, so I’m glad you support democracy, even if it means alienating some followers or compromising on some issues. Having freedom isn’t just about rockets.”

    I followed up with this comment: “I’ve been supporting Mark Kelly with monthly donations for a while now. It’s heartening to me that he’s being considered for VP. If he’s chosen, I’m hoping he could balance the apparent sympathy Harris has for identity politics. In any case, I’m voting for democracy.”

    Below is the link to Zubrin’s original posting. Needless to say, he’s become the focus of some hate comments, but he is also getting supportive comments. Adam Kinzinger posted “Well said.”
    https://x.com/robert_zubrin/status/1816680204921663503

  42. I worry for Israel and Taiwan if Harris wins and for Ukraine if Trump does.
    I worry about results of illegal immigration and free speech censorship with Harris and global warming with Trump.
    Neither is going to accept election results so there are riots to look forward to, mostly peaceful or not.
    Neither is interested in the national debt which is a slow moving bullet to the head of the economy.
    Neither has mentioned upgrading our 3 power grids which will be required before even mostly renewable energy is feasible.

    DEI seems to have reached its pinnacle of influence which feels like a win though I fear how extreme the rebound will be.
    Transgender care for minors has been defunded or banned in most states which also feels like a win (albeit in mostly red states).

    Things are a mess and I see disaster with both candidates. Trump talks as if he will become a dictator while Harris has gotten zero votes and still became one of the two nominees.
    Who represents democracy?

    I feel our hosts anxiety

  43. Have a great trip to South Africa. Thanks for writing WEIT everyday. That’s a phenomenal output. Everyday your output of informed and valuable commentary helps stabilize my thinking. You provide good information on a variety of subjects that I care about. I can’t find that anywhere else.

    I will vote for Kamala Harris because I will not vote for her opponent. Her qualifications could be better but I think that is always the case. The most important aspect of the President is who she will surround herself with for advice. Getting elected doesn’t automatically make you the smartest person in the country. Seeing Donald Trump in the Whitehouse proved that.

  44. I’ll make sure Jerry doesn’t get a moments rest when he gets to South Africa. 🙂

    His anxiety levels will be through the roof when we get derailed by a massive bull elephant 2 feet from our vehicle. Still, this is a much “nicer” anxiety (more like silent terror) than worrying about Trump and/or Harris.

    ASIDE:
    Jerry is a thoughtful, intelligent and fair human. A rare breed. ❤️

    1. I am optimistic the trip will give our host a thorough reset!

      A change is as good as a rest. And if anything will get a person living and loving life in the moment, it is an African safari. For us, it was when a young cheetah jumped on our open vehicle (the guide should have prevented this by driving slowly) and we said “What do we do, what do we do!?” and the guide responded with “Take a selfie, take a selfie!” It was exhilarating and slightly terrifying.

      I wish you both a wonderful month!

  45. I wish just to thank Prof. Coyne and Tom B for worrying about Ukraine. I am shocked by the number of Americans willing to abandon it.

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