Religion fades in the U.S.

March 16, 2015 • 9:10 am

Just remember, you heard it here first, and a fair while back: religion is on its way out in the U.S., no matter what John Gray claims. The diminution of faith in my land is much to be welcomed, and, according to Tobin Grant at the Religious News Service, is the ineluctable conclusion of the latest General Social Survey, an survey of American demography, attitudes and beliefs conducted every other year using face-to-face interviews.

This is the genuine Good News. Tobin highlights three conclusions (his words are indented)

1. The “nones” are growing. “Nones are those people who report no formal affiliation with an established church, i.e., have no religious preference. Not all of these are nonbelievers; in fact, I think most of them are either believers who haven’t found a place to worship or have a diffuse kind of “spirituality.” Nevertheless, more than 1 in 5 Americans is now a self-identified member of this group:

When asked their “religious preference”, nearly one-in-four Americans now says “none.” [JAC: it looks closer to 20% than 25%.] Up until the 1990s, this group of so-called “nones” hovered in the single digits.  The 2014 GSS showed that the so-called nones are 21 percent. How large is this group of nones? There are nearly as many Americans who claim no religion as there are Catholics (24 percent). If this growth continues, in a few years the largest “religion” in the U.S. may be no religion at all.

Here’s the time course of “none-itude”; the trend is clear:

GSS-Nones1-807x514As Tobin notes,

An important point to remember as you see the data: each percentage point increase represents a growth of 2.5 million adults.

For the three graphs, we see between a one and three point rise in secularity since 2012, with 7.5 million more people never entering a church or other worship service than just two years earlier.

2. Church attendance is down.

The number of Americans who never darken a church door is also at a new high. Over a third of Americans (34 percent) never attend a worship service (other than weddings and other ceremonies). This is a 3.4 point increase from just a few years earlier. Put differently, the group of Americans who don’t attend church grew by a rate of over ten percent in two years.

As Tobin’s data implies, a 3.4 percent increase in nonattendance means that there are 8.5 million more empty spaces in pews than there were a few years ago.

GSS-Attend1-1

3. The percentage of Americans who never pray has gone up by about 30% in the last decade (at least that’s what I glean from the graph below).

GSS-Pray1

This is still too many, for 6 out of 7 Americans still appear to pray sometimes. Unless they conceive of prayer as a form of meditation, and don’t assume that somebody’s listening, this shows that 6 out of 7 American think that Somebody is Listening Up There. And that means that of 20% of people who are “nones”, a lot of them are still praying.

Regardless, this clearly shows a trend of increasing secularism in the U.S. We’re getting more like Europe, which I think is the inevitable result of a combination of modernity (science removed reasons to believe in God) and the spread of Enlightenment values (it’s irrational to believe without evidence).

Now remember, these data are taken from in-person surveys, so there may be a bias towards answering untruthfully. But if there is, I think that, in light of the opprobrium attached to nonbelief in America, it would be in the direction of people saying that they were more religious than they were; that is, the proportion of unbelief, non-prayer, etc. would be underestimated. And you’d still have to explain why, over the past ten years, it would have become more acceptable for people to claim nonbelief when they really were believers. I can’t think of a good reason for that.

 

71 thoughts on “Religion fades in the U.S.”

  4. Interesting.

    My guess is that statistics like this are likely to spur increasing verbal attacks against atheism in many forums. It’s morally or spiritually “bankrupt;” it doesn’t place enough focus on different ways to understand God; it’s the result of shallow thinking and/or a preoccupation with material objects and/or a desire to insult people, etc.

    Both conservative and liberal believers are going to want to shift the decline so that the numbers go in the opposite direction. But, even more important, they don’t want the group of “Nones” which still believes in a Higher Power to lose their faith in the Transcendent realm — or their faith in faith.

    That last one is a killer. One of the most devastating things which could happen to religious belief in any culture is a diminished status granted towards faith. When “believing in belief” stops being treated like a noble virtue akin to moral courage or humble appreciation and starts being considered dogmatic arrogance and sloppy thinking — they’re cooked.

  5. Unless they conceive of prayer as a form of meditation, and don’t assume that somebody’s listening, this shows that 6 out of 7 American think that Somebody is Listening Up There.

    One of the more interesting descriptions I’ve heard of prayer is that it is a socially acceptable form of immediate, vocal, stress relief for a society (ours) which has very few other such coping mechanisms. Its not socially acceptable to scream, or tear your clothes, or throw things, or pull your hair. You basically can’t freak out in any other way without being thought at last a little crazy. You can’t even talk out loud to yourself in a nonreligious manner to try and relieve the stress. But you can pray and not be thought crazy or committing a social faux pas. So, that’s what people do. The reason (some but certainly not all) people in foxholes pray when they would not otherwise be religious, is because they can pray to deal with the stress…and because there’s not many other things they could do to relieve the stress that would be socially acceptable.

    Why do 85% of people pray? Because they gotta do something to deal with stress, and singing “I’m a little teapot” under their breath instead is not a socially acceptable option.

    1. Religiosity certainly goes up with stress — both individually and in societies. The decline in religiosity in economically poor parts of the US (as in the deep South) likely lags behind the trend elsewhere.
      What can help spur things along? Maybe issue bubble wrap and affordable healthcare and jobs.

    2. I think that if ‘prayer’ ever had to go head-to-head with ‘swearing’ in the “Dealing With Stress” category, the remnants of a religious culture would lose out to the more secular method of instant relief.

    3. You basically can’t freak out in any other way without being thought at l[e]ast a little crazy.

      Unless you’re holding a mobile phone.

      1. Yes, and that goes double for talking out loud. I tell my children that when I was their age, I knew to avoid people talking out loud on the street. Now it is normal.

  6. I’m curious (and a bit hopeful) to see if we are approaching a “tipping point” in the numbers. It seems unlikely, but then consider where same-sex marriage was in the US but a decade or so ago, compared to the broad acceptance today (and by summer it will be the law of the land).

    It would also be interesting to see what the percentages are and how steep the trend over time for just the population that is, say, younger than 65 and not-Southern.

    Thanks for the rare piece of good news!

    1. It would be interesting to see this kind of data broken down to a state-to-state basis. As a rule, the blue states would be less religious, but I wonder which is the least religious.

        1. It’s interesting that the maps shows a large chunk of what is often considered as part of the “bible-belt” to be below average.

          George

          1. Isn’t that what you expect? This is a map of “no religion”. Below average in having no religion means above average in having religion.

          3. But it’s below average in the % that claims no religious identity, less than 8% in the yellow states. Thus, above average in claiming a religious identity.

          5. Thanks for the map! I’m happy to be dark green, which is what I suspected (WA state). I wonder if California is only average because of the many Catholic citizens from Mexico/Central America. Surprising, I thought they’d be dark green as well. I think it’s time for another poll since this related to 2009.

    1. I don’t agree. It’s easy to believe in deities who you think don’t listen.

      Do Scientologists pray?

      1. Maybe not, but they either pay or get sold into slavery. That’s what I heard.

        1. Interesting. Paying to get sold into slavery is not a bad analogy for religion in general.

      2. GBJames, philosophically you are right, of course. But statistically, I think that kind of belief is rare enough that the poll on this question would not be much affected by it. That’s just my opinion, though.

        1. I thought your phrasing was more directed at the principles involved.

          Still, I think there are an awful lot of deist-type people out there, one step short of admitting to atheism, who don’t pray.

    2. Maybe. But there also seems to be a common belief that God is “out there” but it’s not “fair” to pray to God if you haven’t performed the necessary duties (like church attendance, praise and thanksgiving, and identifying yourself as ‘religious.) God will know you’re only sucking up to Him for favors — so you’re more likely to be punished than rewarded.

      People tend to think of God in ways that are simultaneously mysterious and Other and yet very familiar at the same time.

      1. Well, I argue prayer is immoral. Perhaps more believers are accepting my argument? 🙂

      2. Prayer doesn’t necessarily mean selfish intercessionary prayer. It often means completely unselfish prayers to help others get well, etc. Prayer also often amounts to just “talking to god.” Almost anyone who believes in a god would mentally thank him or her for some lucky event or healing or whatever, and most would consider this too as “talking to god”, ie prayer. So I think this question is quite significant.

    1. I wonder if the numbers are statistically significant, or perhaps a temporary blip? I feel like Europeans are too sensible for this to be an ongoing trend. Interesting article.

  9. Possibly interesting factoid:

    When I was drafted in 1967, I got dog tags that said “None”.

    When I went to Vietnam, I was given new dog tags that said “No Pref”.

    1. It always seems to me that categorizing atheists as “no preference” instead of “none” or “atheist” is a not-so-subtle attempt to steer nonbelievers towards accomodationism.

      “Well, I don’t believe in any particular religion but I’m JUST FINE with ALL of them. Live and let live, that’s my motto. Go along to get along. You bet. Put references to God wherever you want and make them often and watch me nod and smile and think it’s grand.”

      A tame atheism doesn’t create any serious waves.

      1. I think it was a not-too-subtle way of deflecting attention away from the fact that someone is dead. War doesn’t seem quit as bad if kids don’t really die.

      2. That’s how I see it. I also feel like there’s a bit of denial there – ‘no pref’ isn’t admitting some don’t believe.

    2. Cf. when Bertrand Russell was sent to prison. He was asked his religion, and he said “agnostic” and the warden said something like “well, they all worship the same god, right?”

  10. Wait for the articles from the religious attacking the atheists for stealing their flock.

  12. Something I didn’t know until recently reading Garry Wills’ “Head and Heart: American Christianities” is that U.S. religious observance was at an all-time low at the time of the nation’s founding, with regular attendance at church services reported at just 17% in 1776. By the time of the Constitutional Convention, American religious fervor had been steadily receding for over 50 years, since the “First Great Awakening” in the earlier decades of the 18th century. It was due to such historical contingencies — including the cresting of the Enlightenment, before the rollback of the anti-Enlightenment and the rise of Romanticism — that the disestablishment views of Jefferson and Madison triumphed, making their way into the First Amendment, even then over heated pushback from religionists.

  13. Evidence of what? If we don’t know what we are talking about or looking for, then evidence doesn’t even come into play. How could it? In order to look for evidence of something, we first must know what that “something” is. But we don’t. So why are we talking about something about which we know nothing? It seems the best thing to do is simply say you have no religious beliefs at all, if that is the case.

  14. Reblogged this on The Invisible Atheist and commented:
    A very interesting piece on the decline of religion in the United States from the excellent ‘Why Evolution is True’ site. As an Englishman I have found the recent surge of Atheism in the US to be quite interesting. I wasn’t fully aware until recently that there was such stigma facing Atheists over there, in fact, according to recent studies most North Americans would not elect an atheist to government, so it’s exciting to see that secularism and atheism is taking off in such a big way despite such stigma being attached to the idea.

    1. You have to be a bit careful in differentiating between North America and the United States. In terms of religious fervour (and much else) Canada is in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean and rather closer to Europe than is the United States.
      It seems to me that the US lags the rest of Western countries in many sociological phenomena. It would be interesting to know if this lag is longer with respect to religon than with respect to other sociological variables. If not, then we could predict when this tipping point should occur by comparison with such other sociological trends.

  15. I sure hope all those new millions of unbelievers are getting along OK without all the “systems of networks and support structures” religion provides for its believers.

  16. You fools who believe in Catastrophic Atheogenesis, don’t you know that the incidence of ‘Nones’ actually peaked in 1998 and even Richard Dawkins admits there’s been a pause.

  17. I don’t particularly want to be be in the category of nones since I know a lot of nones who are spiritual. Although these people are not affiliated with any kind of church they still believe in some kind of cosmic power. The truth is there are probably not many more than 2% Atheists in America.

    1. I don’t doubt that many who self report as nones are into woo of one sort of another. But, have you come across any polls that are specific enough to support a number like 2% for atheists?

      I’ve never seen a poll that does, almost like probing the question of the incidence of atheism too directly is taboo or something.

      I also think it is likely that there are a significant number of people who would not self identify as atheist, for reasons ranging from accommodationism to not wanting to stand out, but are functionally atheists. So I am not quite as pessimistic as you.

  18. The church coffers will empty themselves. Let the next twenty five years see church yards turn into public gardens and their edifices into venues for chamber music.

  19. The question about ever praying seems to be the best proxy for non-belief, and I’m guessing its rise is not tied so much to what anyone’s been specifically doing over the past ten years as it is to basic demographic change in the U.S., as it’s older people who are more likely to have strong religious beliefs.

    1. I don’t think that is true. Religious revivals are often the product of youthful enthusiasm. There are generational cycles, too, that can lead to one generation of old believers being replaced by a subsequent generation of not-so-faithful.

      1. I think the generational cycle idea suffers from the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy, which goes like this: a Texan who thinks he’s pretty hot with a gun decides to do some target practice using the side of a barn. He takes dozens of shots, and not too surprisingly most of them hit the barn’s side. He then goes up and draws concentric circles over the spot where they happen to enclose the most holes and then claims he’s one sharp shooter! The generational cycle similarly structures its data to suit its assertions by how it defines its generations to fit their proposed cycle. It’s nothing more than an exercise in numerolgy, really. The historical record is much better explained by actual events than by resorting to the equivalent of birth order making a difference in behavior.

  20. I don’t think it is a coincidence that the rise in nones would nicely mirror a rise in the prevalence of Internet access. I’m sure a lot of people out there have come to realize that perhaps the nagging doubts and questions they have while immersed in faith communities are legitimate questions and they are not alone in having them.

    As for the 6 out of 7 people who still pray, I think if the question was framed, “Do you ever talk to yourself with the expectation that someone else will hear it?” we might get different results.

  21. Meanwhile, Elaine Eckland has released another tranche of her “vapid nonsense” at AAAS — all kumbaya and accommodationist. Eg, 70% of evangelicals think science and reigion are compatable[mostly, that creation IS science…]; 76% of scientists “identify” with a religious background

    usw… I’m sure PCC will cover this in coming days.

    1. I haven’t heard that, though I see the AAAS is busy (with the help of Templeton) constructing science programs for seminaries. Could you post or (better yet) email me the link to Ecklund’s latest lucubrations?

  22. …which I think is the inevitable result of a combination of modernity (science removed reasons to believe in God) and the spread of Enlightenment values (it’s irrational to believe without evidence).

    I think another factor is the growth of the social “safety net”; that is, the system of supports put in place by government to sustain people in times of personal economic or health problems, a role that has traditionally been fulfilled by churches.

  23. I think the rise in unbelief is tied to politics and the religiosity of America’s enemy. At the end of the 19th century, the most popular speakers were Mark Twain and Robert Ingersoll. Then the Russian revolution happened in 1917. The enemy of the USA was the godless communist. That’s why Americans started to define themselves as christian capitalist, even though Jesus said it’s easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter the kingdom of heaven.

    The Cold War made things even worse. ‘In God we trust’ was added to the dollar bill in 1956. That same year, ‘In God we trust’ was made the national motto by president Eisenhower. ‘Under God’ was added to the pledge of allegiance in 1954. So it was Eisenhower who threw away the secular nature of the USA. The fusion between nationalism and religion was the very thing that Madison and Jefferson warned against. They knew about the horrors of the European religious wars of the 16th and early 17th century; Protestants and catholics going at eachothers throats.

    The enemies of the USA today are the most religious people imaginable. That’s part of the reason why secularism is popular, I think. It’s an antidote against the religious poison.

    1. And socialism was creeping over Western Europe like an itchy red carpet. We had socialists (mostly social democrats) in parliament. Socialism was part of the political mainstream, so we didn’t develop the distaste for atheism.

  24. So if 14% “never pray,” how does that compare with the percentage on surveys who say they don’t believe in God, or they aren’t sure? I’m sure the questions and the wording of same have an influence on the figures you get.

  25. Categorizations should include temporal belief. Example (very generalizable):

    Wake up.
    Drink coffee.
    Drive/bike/walk to work.
    Work.
    Drive/bike/walk home.
    Watch TV/Internet.
    Sleep. Repeat

    Somewhere in there (<1% of time) is praying and talking to God. Another very sensible example, Catholic Nun:

    Wake up.
    Pray (2 hours max).
    Functional Social Work (rest of the day).

    Overall, the most religious Americans could reasonably claim to be religious is on the order of 1 – 5% (integrated over time). Even most Mormons put their under garnets on and forget about them.

  26. “As Tobin’s data implies, a 3.4 percent increase in nonattendance means that there are 8.5 million more empty spaces in pews than there were a few years ago.”

    Can anybody put a monetary value on the loss of revenue from falling church attendance? If the average loss per absent person is five dollars, then forty two million dollars per week goes missing, equating to over $2 billion per year. You could buy a couple of colour-coordinated private jets for that, and also a lot of hot soup for the homeless.
    My figure is highly speculative. Somebody might be able to give a more concrete figure.

    It would also be interesting to find out if the unchurched donate to other charitable institutions.

    1. I was researching tithing before when discussing it on the Creflo Dollar thread and found a figure claiming the average churchgoing family gives 2.2% to the Church. I don’t know how accurate that is, but it’ll do for a back of the envelope calculation. 2.2% * $50,000/yr * 8.5 million people = $9.35 billion/year going elsewhere. Barely a blip on the macroeconomic scale, but certainly big enough for Tea Party Republicans to threaten a Government shutdown.

    2. How much of the decline in church attendance is explained by couch potatoes satisfying their credulousness urges by switching to a goddy TV channel?

  27. So there was an article in the press today about how there is going to be a big effort to recruit evangelicals to the cause of the Republican Party. Let’s hope that doesn’t counter the trend…

    1. I don’t know much about American politics, but I thought the evangelicals were already in the pocket of the Republicans? Were else will they turn to? Democrats?

  28. Been watching the Goodwife love the show.The character on the show not the actress has pretty much come out as an atheist from what i can see.Hasn’t hurt the ratings at all maybe improved them.

  29. Last poll I remember covering “nones” from 2013 said 70% of the “nones” belive in God or a supreme blabady blah blah. Can’t seem to find the actual poll anywhere…

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