This article from the New Zealand Herald shows what we already know: that “indigenous ways of knowing” in New Zealand, or Mātauranga Māori (henceforth “MM”) are loudy touted as making substantial contributions to scientific knowledge—in this case to predictions of volcanic eruptions. And while it’s possible that MM can make some contributions to predictions of the damage that could result from eruption, even those predictions are nebulous. As usual, the mixture of empirical knowledge, legend, superstition, ideology, and proper behavior that constitute MM are said to be crucial for an empirical endeavor, but no specifics are ever given. In the end, it seems again that MM is tacked on to science to pretend that it’s coequal in its value, but that no evidence is given to support coequality.
You can see an archived link by clicking the headline below.
The issue is how to predict when a now-dormant volcano, Mount Taranaki on New Zealand’s North Island, will erupt again. The article summarizes a five-year study of how to predict not just that but also how to assess the damage from an eruption. The researchers apparently used real science to get the dates of eruptions (radiometric dating for dates of past eruptions, which go back to 200,000 BCE, with the most recent being 1854), and research from Massey University to calculate possible damage. That damage could be severe because Mount Taranaki can have damaging eruptions involving collapse of the volcanic cone plus dangerous mudflows. The hazards are summarized by Wikipedia:
Much of the region is at risk from lahars [mudflows], which have reached the eastern coast.[25]: 466 A volcanic event is not necessary for a lahar: even earthquakes combined with heavy rain or snow could dislodge vast quantities of unstable layers resting on steep slopes. Many farmers live in the paths of such possible destructive events.
Although volcanic eruptions are notoriously chaotic in their frequency, some scientists warn that a large eruption is “overdue”. Research from Massey University indicates that significant seismic activity from the local faults is likely again in the next 50 years and such might be permissive to an eruption. What ever in the next 50 years, the probability of at least one eruption is between 33% and 42%.[25]: 473 Prevailing winds would probably blow ash east, covering much of the North Island, and disrupting air routes, power transmission lines and local water supplies.[35]
None of the references given in the Herald piece, including this one and this one—papers and articles that discuss the volcano’s geological history and possible damage—even mention MM, but it’s still touted as helping contribute to this five-year project. Some quotes from the NZ Herald article (I’ve put my translations of the Māori, taken from the Māori Dictionary, in brackets):
A Mt Taranaki eruption could bring the region to a standstill, knock out regional infrastructure and cause up to $16 billion worth of damage, a new study has found.
Researchers across New Zealand undertook a five-year study weaving together volcanic science, dynamic risk modelling, economic analysis and mātauranga ā iwi [knowledge from the tribes] to project what would happen if the volcano erupted.
University of Auckland Professor Shane Cronin said the programme began because researchers knew there was a 30-50% chance that Taranaki could erupt in the next 50 years.
“Our job was to listen to the mounga [mountain], study its past behaviour, and start to understand what signs it might give before erupting again.”
The rest of the article discuses the dates of previous eruptions (determined by direct observation by “Westerners” or via radiometric dating), as well as the possible damage that could occur, including this:
The research revealed how a disruption to the electricity system could cascade through the oil and gas industries, transport networks, and water systems, causing widespread impacts across the= region and nation.
“The risk modelling suggests a Taranaki eruption is a potential regional disaster, it’s a national energy security challenge, and a potential future economic crisis,” Wilson said.
“The ripple effects of an eruption go far beyond ash and lahars.
“Volcanic ash can short-circuit power lines, block roads, contaminate water sources, and clog water treatment plants, causing critical infrastructure systems to fail at the exact time they’re needed most.
“Lahars could also destroy bridges and cut off lifeline services, disrupting transport and access to basic needs like food and water, as well as limiting access to some communities.”
Economic modelling predicts losses from a future eruption of Taranaki mounga could be between $12b and $16b, depending on the type, scale, and duration of the event.
This appears to have come from empirical observation, with no explicit contribution from MM. But then they put in the indigenous “ways of knowing” stuff, heavily larded with Māori words.
Weaving m ātauranga Māori and risk science.
The programme worked in partnership with Uri to weave together [Note the reference to “Western science”, which should be “modern science”.]
Bilingual resources, interactive StoryMaps, and wānanga [tribal or traditional knowledge; could also mean an “indigenous sage”] created spaces for kōrero [conversations] about the mounga’s past and future.
“You can’t understand volcanic risk in Taranaki without understanding the whakapapa [genealogy or history] of the mountain, whenua [land] and awa [rivers], the kōrero tuku iho [oral tradition] and mātauranga [knowledge] held by whānau [family groups], hapū [kinship groups or tribes] and iwi [tribes] who hold ancestral connections to the mounga [mountain] and have done so for generations,” said Acushla Dee Sciascia of Mapuna Consultants.
This research provided a platform for Māori researchers to contribute their voices, leading to richer outputs including monographs, visual exhibitions, and new ways of telling the mounga’s story.
“Taranaki mounga [tribal groups near the mountain] provides us with so many learnings from its past and how our tūpuna [ancestors] navigated previous volcanic events, and it’s up to us now to prepare our whānau [land] for the future,” Sciascia said.
“This programme has laid a foundation. But the real mahi [effort] is in how we carry this forward, and how we embed mātauranga Māori into everyday planning, science, and response.”
What is missing here is how mātauranga Māori really is woven together with Western science in a productive way. Conspicuously absent is any mention about how MM really does help us assess volcanic risk, and mentioning “StoryMaps”, visual exhibitions, traditional knowledge, and so on doesn’t give us any insight about the two main aspects of the article: predicting future eruptions and assessing potential damage. Nor does seeing how earlier inhabitants coped with the damage give us much help in figuring out how to cope with the damage now. In the end, it seems that straight empirical observation and empirical-based prediction is what is needed here, and I can’t for the life of me find out how MM can help with that.
Nevertheless, I’ve tried to understand how it could, and, to be fair, it’s possible that Māori could contribute to the risk assessment by describing the ways that they would deal with an eruption, and what are their strengths and weaknesses in doing so. Also—and this is PR more than science—mixing MM in with science could prompt the Maori to take the risks of living near the volcano more seriously. But this doesn’t show how mixing MM with “Western science” gives us any idea of when Mount Taranaki is going to blow (that will be from pure science) or how to deal with possible damage (which depends on the seriousness of the eruption, something we don’t know). Once again we find that “traditional ways of knowing” don’t seem to help with understanding the real world, though catering to its proponents may create more amity between indigenous peoples and the descendants of Western colonists.
Here’s Mount Taranaki from the Wikipedia article. I think I saw it when I visited NZ, and it’s impressive.
And a photo I took in April, 2017. It’s not labeled, but it sure looks like Mt. Taranaki! I would ask Heather Hastie, but she is no more.
How about just “science”?
I find the sprinkling of Maori words into an English language article annoying. It seems a little bit precious, as my mother used to say. I suppose they do it to imply that the Maori word has a meaning that cannot be adequately expressed in English, probably because it has some spiritual nuance. The effect, though, is like the use of any jargon or cant, and serves to obscure rather than illuminate. It also implies that the article (or book) isn’t intended for a broader audience. It all comes across as fetishistic, which the proponents of MM probably wouldn’t object to.
Yes, giving the words (Maori is an official language of NZ, though almost no Maori speak it at home) is a form of virtue flaunting unless they also give the English equivalents.
Dear Jerry
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Please come and save us from ourselves!
An overseas NZer who has drunk the Kool Aid undoubtedly will be targeted/recruited.
+1. There is no such thing as “Western science”. The same science is used in China, Korea, Japan, etc. as France, Germany, and the USA, etc.
The idea that ‘science” can be divided was a key idea of the Nazis and they were wrong.
The article from the New Zealand Harold has been archived here (on 22 Oct 2025 14:10:12 UTC):
https://archive.ph/SKVig
Thanks. I’ll put that as the link in the headline).
Google lens identifies that second mountain as “Mount Ngauruhoe, an active volcano in New Zealand’s Tongariro National Park”. I did the search as the top seems flatter than Taranaki.
Okay, thank you. I’ll leave it up with your correction.
The cone in the second photo looks more like Mt Ngauruhoe, which is on the volcanic plateau of the central North Island.
AIUI, MM has something to say about the family resemblance between Mt
EgmontTaranaki and the central plateau volcanos. It says that Taranaki was originally on the plateau with its relatives, but on account of a family feud it left in a huff and moved itself to the western coast. I kid you not. And this sort of just-so story is supposed to aid scientific investigations?To be fair, a tiny amount of the local lore just might be of use — if some animals are regarded as particularly good predictors of earthquakes or eruptions then just maybe they are reacting to subsonic precursors, and empirical investigation of these species subsonic senses could point to useful frequencies to monitor. (IANA geoscientist).
Barbara KNox,
Kiwis often used to learn the lore from the back of the NZ AutoAssociation maps. The family feud was a fight over a girl — pretty little Pihanga, another mountain. Taranaki lost to Ruapehu and then stomped off to the coast to be alone.
It was fun mythology on the back of the ‘AA maps’. No one complained about it back then. But we weren’t getting it crammed down our throats and told we must bow before these higher gods.
I agree – it’s almost certainly Ngauruhoe, with Tongariro to the left.
The term “indigenous ways of knowing” is a misnomer. You don’t have to have lived on the land from the earliest times to become in tune with your environment. Some knowledge has become instinctive, and it helped keep us alive for thousands of years. Animals and plants can be sensitive to things that we aren’t, but being aware of their reactions can alert us when there is danger around, or bad weather coming. Farmers who have worked the land for a few generations can often tell a lot about the weather without equipment.
It’s often ingrained, and may seem supernatural to town folk, but it’s not magic. It’s just having the experience of living on the land and observing it.
OTOH, to neolithic cultures damn near everything was magic.
True. Sadly, it seems that some people are going backwards into believing that again 🤦♀️
A graphic on the Indigenous went around recently.
The question arose – for the non-Indigenous – (because, that is the idea), .. to which place.. precisely… are they… Indigenous?…
I think readers here would immediately say either northern /eastern Africa (Olduvai gorge?) or where the Denisovans’ cave is, in IIRC Siberia.
Or, further back, the oceans,
If anyone wishes to engage the services of Mapuna Consultants, to find out if they offer what you need, visit: https://www.mapuna.co.nz/capability . A brief summary:
“Our capability programmes are best suited to beginner level participants who are wanting an introduction to Te Ao Māori me ōna āhuatanga (the Māori world and its attributes) and is delivered by excellent facilitators and teachers. Our programmes usually cover;
Te Reo Māori
Te Ao Māori (Māori worldviews)
Te Tiriti o Waitangi (The Treaty of Waitangi) “
Unfortunately, the mix of victim culture and white guilt (including our proclivity for self-flagellation) will keep this nonsense alive for some time.
Could be. But past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Bookmarked under “Indigenous propaganda”.
As I understand it, it has been scientifically proved that the best way to help trees in New Zealand affected by blight is to play whale songs. Perhaps the Māori have equally scientific methods to calm the volcano spirits.
I wouldn’t blow my top over this, but I sympathize with the eruptions against the Maori madness. It fires me up, too.
(Sorry, I couldn’t resist. You can all slap me later or explode now! But, please recall, the ROOLZ insist that we not get too heated.)
These puns may be of limited magmatude, but I did erupt with lavaster.
Lahardy har har.
BTW, AIUI the biggest rail disaster in NZ was due to a lahar wiping out a bridge.
Please pay attention to the frequency of commenting Roolz. Thanks!
Oh no.
Again, big cheer to PCC(E) for amplifying this nonsense.
Mt. Taranaki is utterly beautiful, by the way, Fuji level aesthetics.
Yet the fiasco of MM continues, apace, to at once annoy reality based scientists and also patronize Maori people.
The larding of Maori vocab (which so few people actually speak) is a “tell” always.
I retweeted this.
“You can’t understand volcanic risk in Taranaki without understanding the whakapapa [genealogy or history] of the mountain,”
— you wanna bet?
Gggggrrr
D.A.
NYC (formerly of Auckland).
Auckland is built on a volcano as well.
When that city blows it’ll be even more like a 1970s disaster movie.
You aren’t accounting for the established value of sacrificing a virgin to the angry god when the volcano begins to rumble. It has been shown that this has a p-value of .03 with a probability of success of -23% (SD +/- -6%). This was published in the Journal of MM Science, a highly regarded journal among practitioners, in the June 1984 edition. The journal doesn’t require peer review because MM knowledge is known by all. Its impact factor is a noteworthy 0.0002.
The only thing I can think of that might constitute a real contribution from MM to the specific question of how to predict future eruptions of Mt Taranaki is if oral tradition has preserved some record of some identifiable event that preceded a previous eruption and which seemed to be connected to it. If there is no such oral account, MM has nothing to offer on the matter.
Volcanoes in New Zealand are dangerous, and not just to the folks who live there. The following is from Google AI
“The Great Famine of 1315-1317 in Europe was linked to a climate shift that caused crop failures, and while historians debate the primary cause, there is evidence suggesting a volcanic eruption in New Zealand may have contributed to the change. Research suggests the Mount Tarawera eruption around 1315 may have been one factor in triggering the cool, rainy weather that led to famine, as volcanic gases and ash can impact global weather patterns. “