In the next couple of days, when I finally get time to write, I’m going to point out several articles in the MSM which are gleeful about the supposed return of religion to America. The New York Times, for example, is laden with pieces about how we’re afflicted with a God-shaped hole in our souls that must be filled by religion. They have, in fact, published several excepts (which I’ve criticized) of Ross Douthat’s new book Believe: Why Everyone Should Believe in God, and now you can find his goddy lucubrations at The Free Press as well. The New Yorker also gave his views a lot of space, views that I summarized and criticized here. An excerpt from that post:
I swear, NYT columnist Ross Douthat must have a huge publicity machine, because his latest book, Believe: Why Everyone Should Be Religious, is appearing everywhere, usually as excerpts. The point of the book is to assert that religion’s decline in America is slowing, and that readers having a “God-shaped hole,” denoting a lack of religious meaning in their lives, should not just become religious, but become Christian. (Douthat thinks that Catholicism is the “right” religion, and of course he happens to be Catholic).
And by “believe,” Douthat doesn’t just mean adhering to a watered-down form of Christianity that sees the New Testament as a series of metaphors. No, he really believes the tenets of his faith, including the miracles of Jesus, the Crucifixion and Resurrection, and the existence of Satan and the afterlife. (See my posts on this delusional book here.) It is a sign of the times that this book, which calls for people to embrace claims that are palpably ridiculous and totally unevidenced—unless you take the New Testament literally, which you can’t because it’s wrong and self-contradictory—is getting not only wide press, but approbation. Even the New Yorker summary and review of the book, which you can read by clicking below (the screenshot links to the archived version here) is pretty mild in its criticism. Author Rothman is a nonbeliever, and gives good responses to Douthat’s “evidence” for God, but at the end says the he “respects [Douthat’s effort to persuade.” What does that mean? He respects Douthat’s efforts to proselytize people with a divisive and harmful faith, and to believe stuff without evidence? Well, the New Yorker has always been a bit soft on faith (despite the fact that most of its writers are atheists), because some of their rich and educated readers have “belief in belief”.
All the attention devoted to the “resurgence” of religion in American seems to come from a 2024 Pew survey of “nones” (people who aren’t affiliated with a conventional church), a group that’s been increasing for a long time, Nones include atheists, agnostics, people who consider themselves spiritual, pantheists, and God-believers who don’t fit in anywhere.
Look! A drop in one year!
As you see, the rise in “nones” has been pretty steady since 2007, nearly doubling in percentage by 2022. But from 2022 to 2023, the number of nones fell by 3%. That fall is what seems to have excited lots of believers (or “believers in belief”), who are pumping out articles on the resurgence of religion in America and excitedly writing books and articles dissecting why God is back.
Now this fall may be real, but I doubt it will continue, if for no other reason than, as Steve Pinker has pointed out, science and rationality continue to take up the space that used to be God’s purview, at least in the West. My own prediction is that, given a few centuries, America will be about as atheistic as Scandinavia, with “religious” observances confined to weddings, holidays, and the like.
What does the fall mean? Well, it could reflect a rise in wokeness, an ideology that nicely accommodates religious belief. It could reflect the fact that we had a pandemic, or that American economic and social well being fell during this period. It’s well known that when well-being falls, religiosity rises and “none-ness” is likely to fall. (Marx was perhaps the first to realize this but it’s been modernized and verified by the work of Norris and Inglehart, whose thesis is summarized in this book, summarized thusly:
This book develops a theory of existential security. It demonstrates that the publics of virtually all advanced industrial societies have been moving toward more secular orientations during the past half century, but also that the world as a whole now has more people with traditional religious views than ever before. This second edition expands the theory and provides new and updated evidence from a broad perspective and in a wide range of countries. This confirms that religiosity persists most strongly among vulnerable populations, especially in poorer nations and in failed states. Conversely, a systematic erosion of religious practices, values, and beliefs has occurred among the more prosperous strata in rich nations.
The U.S., by the way, doesn’t rank very highly in either happiness or well-being (including income inequality), possibly explaining why, though we have a substantial amount of secularity, it’s much lower than in countries like Sweden, Denmark, and Switzerland, which are also less religious.
At any rate, the slight fall in the graph above has given rise to a huge amount of press explaining and extolling America’s return to God. We are told, for example, that we harbor a “God-shaped hole”: a longing to find meaning in life that can be fulfilled only by accepting a divine being. (Ayaan Hirsi Ali is a prominent exponent of this view,and it may have worked for her.)
All I’m saying is that I predict a spate of articles in the press touting America’s return to God and explaining our “God-shaped hole.” And, as far as I can see, it all comes down to that 3% drop in “nones” over one year. There may be more to these claims that I don’t know, but I don’t think America is reverting to conventional religious belief.
Factor in that Biden allowed in over 10 million migrants during his presidency, and poorer countries tend to be more religious. Much of Central America is more Christian than America.. (A similar thing is happening happening in the UK; in terms of people who actually believe a religion and attend church/mosque/temple the UK is getting much more religious, in that Islam in the UK is growing fast.)
Same thing in most developed countries with birth rates below the replacement rate and aging populations, including here in Canada. Need workers and they come from religious parts of the world. Liberals might be surprised down the road if newcomers “vote” like social conservatives … part of Hispanic switch to Trump? Although some evidence that immigrants less religious than in their home countries, but still not as religion-free as most host countries.
That’s not correct. The 10 million number bandied about by critics of Biden is really just made up from adding up all border encounters plus estimates of the number of undocumented migrants who were lost to follow up.
The actual number is difficult to estimate because undocumented migrants are, well – undocumented. The total has been estimated as relatively stable for the past 20 years at around 10 – 11 million, with an increase of several million during Biden’s term which was partly due to a rebound after border shut downs during COVID.
See here for more details.
https://cis.org/Report/ForeignBorn-Number-and-Share-US-Population-AllTime-Highs-January-2025#:~:text=Overall%2C%20we%20find%20that%20there,foreign%2Dborn%20in%20the%20survey.
and
https://www.factcheck.org/2024/02/breaking-down-the-immigration-figures/
I saw in Le Monde the other day that for the first time in its history, Germany has more people without faith (47%) than catholics plus protestants (45%). Score one for them.
I’m not worried at the moment. In the long run the conditions that have led people away from religion remain intact—the triumphs of science, secular public schools, secular governance, secular workplaces, college education, the widespread acceptance of non-belief in the culture of the west, etc. This doesn’t mean that there can’t be short-term retrenchment for various reasons. When times are uncertain, people sometimes revert to the comforts they grew up with. Some people may even re-affiliate with their co-religionists simply for social connection, rather than because of renewed belief. Hard to say. It’ll be interesting to see that graph again in 2030.
My guess is that the secular trend toward secularism will continue.
I agree with N. Gilinsky and PCC(E) that this data does not warrant the conclusion the long term trend is reversed. In addition to comments already made by others, I would add (a) perhaps Douthat thinks he can “encourage” the trend with his book and media enthusiasm, (b) perhaps media on brings it up because it IS new and unexpected, and (c) one might be skeptical (in the sense of doublechecking things) about the Pew results being quoted. The text on the plot suggests that how the survey has been conducted over the years has changed. One would want to check on any changes in that last year in the procedure (including even minor changes to questions or survey population). (a) and (b) and (c) combine to reporting an answer Douthat likes and won’t question, while scientifically it seems inconsistent with the trend and should be questioned.
Secular knowledge is hard to come by. It requires an openness to new ideas and the cognitive capacity to evaluate them. It invites uncertainty and change, two things most people don’t like.
I think people abandon theology when it just doesn’t comport with the real world. But they don’t abandon the search for certainty and stability. That’s what creates the “hole”. As Norm notes above, comfort is very appealing, especially when secular knowledge can change with new data.
We don’t think that those who believe have any real choice in the matter, do we? As a determinist, I certainly don’t. It’s just all part of nature’s great diversity.
“Socialism is precisely the religion that must overwhelm Christianity. In the new order, Socialism will triumph by first capturing the culture via infiltration of schools, universities, churches and the media by transforming the consciousness of society.”
-Antonio Gramsci
Probably Prison Notebooks 1915
Crystal clear, IMHO.
Quote source update:
Been looking for an accurate source, and coming up with nothing. Google searches just repeat this quote. I got an eBook of Prison Notebooks as well as looking on Marxists dot org and cannot find it.
One blog says the quote is from some other author.
So ’til further information appears, I’m calling this quote is fake.
It’s pretty amazing and disappointing because I’ve seen it quoted a number of times and always wanted to verify if it was true because it seemed plausible – people love quoting this one in particular with no reference.
If I could add just this new info :
Some AI assistance suggested Gramsci wrote the following (citation below ) :
[begin supposed quote :] Socialism is precisely the religion that must kill Christianity. … [end supposed quote]
“Audacia e Fede”
Avanti!, 22 May 1916
reprinted in Sotto la Mole: 1916–1929 (Turin: Einaudi, 1960), 148
Source : a website titled “donutapologetics”, which probably took from yet another website “thegospelcoalition”.
FWIW I also found a L’Avanti! archive with the paper, but it is not easy to see where the quote is.
Interesting note : “Avanti!” is Italian for “Forward!”, “Audace e Fede” is “Audacity and Faith”.
You’re more optimistic than I am, Jerry. Hope you’re right but I fear as times get worse, and they’re probably going to get worse for a number of reasons, a lot of people are going to flock back to religion. Not that it’ll do them any good, but religion is the only con that never has to pay up on its promises.
And I plead again for replacing “god-shaped hole” with “human hole-shaped god(s)”.
I have to admit that I have a “god-shaped hole” .
It’s down in the back of my trousers.
Norris and Inglehart: This confirms that religiosity persists most strongly among vulnerable populations, especially in poorer nations and in failed states. Their theory of existential security, would seem to predict that four years of brilliant Trump economic policy, reducing support for the poor and middle classes may produce an even larger decrease in the “nones”.
Indeed; that is a decent prediction
Isn’t that crazy? The snake!
It would be interesting to know the demographic and geographical distribution of the little 3% decrease in “Nones”. Irreligion frequency appears to decrease with cohort age; and geographically it is highest in New England and in the NW (including Alaska), and of course lowest in the South. Is the 3% decrease evident in all regions, or concentrated in some?
I tried to find that data on the site of the Pew Research Center and instead found out something interesting that might be at least partially the cause of this apparent decline of nones.
So there is actually detailed data from each state and the big cities: https://www.pewresearch.org/religious-landscape-study/
But only from 2007, 2014, and 2023-24. This makes me think that these are years when they conducted a bigger, more detailed study than in normal years. This means that the 2022 data and the 2023 data do not come from the same sample size and sample distribution and the difference in the results could be partially or fully due to this.
A quick check online with the Pew Research Center: I read the error on the ‘nones’ is +/- 1.4%. To me, that suggests the decline in ‘nones’ could be barely outside of the error bars and that we need to wait for the next survey to see whether the fall is real and continues.
Another possible explanation for the rise in self-reported religiosity in the US is cognitive dissonance (or something similar) operating at a large scale.
I will elaborate. Many Americans could not bring themselves to vote for the Dems in 2024. The list of reasons why is long. I’m a lifelong, liberal lefty and think the Dem’s anti-science, authoritarian, illiberal, woke ideology stinks to high heaven. Middle America absolutely hates it and soundly rejected it. I think many Americans now think: “if I voted AGAINST Dems then I must be FOR Republicans”. I realize such dichotomous thinking is fallacious, but fallacious thinking is common. It’s a simple next step that this cohort also thinks that if they voted for Republicans, then they must agree with Republicans, which means more of them will consider themselves religious.
I have “been without religion” for 72 years and have not missed it, Never read Douthat after I read the first paragraph of his column many years ago.
I don’t see that we will ever get to Scandinavian levels of non-religion. As long as we stay ‘American’, and here that means lack of support for public health care, and a porous economic safety net, then we will have ample amounts of misery and so ample amounts of religion.
I think it’s hard to know what’s going on with the ‘nones’ unless we know what’s going on with the non-nones. I went to the website and tried digging around but couldn’t find any corresponding numbers for the latter group.
More on god-shaped holes from the New York Times:
“People who practice a religion tend to be happier than those who don’t, a study by the Pew Research Center found. They are also healthier: They are significantly less likely to be depressed or to die prematurely from suicide, alcoholism, cancer, cardiovascular illness or other causes, multiple studies from Harvard found.
This isn’t true for everyone, of course. Many people have built happy, healthy lives outside of faith, and about a third of Americans who have left religion appear to be doing just fine, according to a new study from Burge.
But in aggregate, religion seems to help people by giving them what sociologists call the “three B’s” — belief in something, belonging in a community and behaviors to guide their lives.
Religion fills a psychological need, Michele Margolis, a political scientist at the University of Pennsylvania, told me. “We want to feel connection,” she said. “We want to feel like life makes sense.” Finding these things alone or creating them from scratch is “really hard,” she added.”
In the midst of this was, today, a NYT interview with Krista Tippett. I hope PCC(E) didn’t miss it, given his past admiration of her insight. 🙂
It can even be genetic. So there.
And in yet another proof of the efficacy of prayer, god has answered the pleas of hundreds of millions of the faithful and has finally knocked off his pope, presumably in the hopes, surely to be dashed, that there will be no need for another one.
That this occurred only hours after Vance’s enthusiastically anticipated visit, and on Easter monday to boot, even if raucously hilarious, is probably to be seen as pure coincidence, though the ways of the lord are inscrutable, as we all know.
I’m very much looking forward to seeing The Onion’s reporting on this, and I can only hope they aren’t too squeamish about it.
God Recalls Representative on Earth
Pearly Gates, Monday – In a brief announcement God said today that she was recalling her representative on the earthly plain, citing “problems with infallibility”. Those affected by the recall are encouraged to contact their local church for possible refund. Seeking to view the matter in a positive light, God said she was now very much looking forward to a deserved re-release of “Conclave”.
Could the “God-shaped hole” be part of the reason young people are finding new religions in the form of things like trans rights?