29 thoughts on “Just for fun: One year ago today

  1. His legal challenges may change the trajectory, but barring that I do think he is the inevitable Republican nominee. Trump will certainly try to run, and I doubt other Republicans will dare to pose a serious challenge since they have always been unable to muster a shred of principle concerning this man. Meanwhile his base will whisk him thru the primaries.
    I will not take that bet, but that is what I think right now.

    1. “Change”? Why not just pay the membership fee for the period that will cover the internal list-defining elections (which is what “primaries” seem to be, from the outside), vote against him, then cancel the direct debit.
      It’s not as if you couldn’t be a member of three different parties, if you wanted to be. The membership of clubs and societies is not a matter of public record.

  2. Trump will run.

    His ego will not let him sit it out. He’s way too addicted to adoring crowds.

    What bothers me most about the whole situation is that Republicans will not state what they are FOR. They are just against everything. Their campaigning amounts to racist dog whistles and vague intimations about election “irregularities”.

    People may not agree with Democratic proposals, but at least they have some.

    I would like to see Carville in a position to affect this.

    L

  3. I agree with Mark and Linda that Trump will run again. Pace Linda, policies don’t matter much to the majority of voters. The narrative or myth is what hooks people or repels them, and politicians, willy nilly, become mythic figures. Looking at the situation mythically, Trump is still the God-King of the Republican Party. On the opposite side, Biden’s warm Uncle Joe persona worked well last year, but now his image has become Grandpa Joe, tottering and impotent, and Harris is little more than a cipher in the public eye. I can back up my claims but don’t want this to turn into a lengthy post. For now, I’ll hang this here, from fellow Illinoisan, the clownish Mark Curran, Trump bootlicker, failed candidate for US Senate last year, and current candidate for Illinois Supreme Court. I submit this as evidence of Trump’s mythic power continuing unabated. https://www.linkedin.com/posts/activity-6862307798546550785-Wbj9

    1. “Pace Linda, policies don’t matter much to the majority of voters.”
      You raise the issue that has divided political observers. What determines elections, policies (usually of the economic kind) or cultural appeals that play into assuaging voters’ psychic needs? I don’t think this question is anywhere near being definitively answered. But, I think there are enough voters that vote on the cultural issues to decide close elections. This seems to have been the case in the Virginia election where rural voters turned out in record numbers to elect Youngkin. Rural, white Christian America has been a major source of support for Trump. These folks feel disrespected by the urban elites and will vote for a demagogue like Trump, regardless that his policies (if has any) do nothing for them. The NYT has a recent article discussing rural Americana.

      https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/06/us/rural-vote-democrats-virginia.html

      1. 100% agree. You summarize the issue very well. We have many relatives who are hard-core Voldemort voters. They feel as you state.

        They really hate the “college boys” (and girls these days) that they have to answer to at work. They think their “garage logic” trumps data and science.

        Voldemort plays them like an orchestra.

  4. I’m betting he won’t be the GOP’s nominee for President in 2024 …

    Trump may be the GOP’s 2024 nominee … and, if so, he may have to run for president from a prison cell like Lyndon LaRouche and Eugene V. Debs.

    1. I’d forgotten about Lyndon LaRouche. Why can’t Trump solidify his “populist” claim by putting that worthy on his ticket as VP? Lyndon’s appearance on a Republican ticket would simply extend his trajectory, which had earlier spanned the SWP, various parties of his own invention, and the Democratic Party. Trump could explain that reports of Lyndon’s death in 2019 were rigged, or fake news. And Lyndon’s absence from all campaign rallies would leave more time for Donald to occupy center stage.

  5. I’m betting he won’t be the GOP’s nominee for President in 2024, but what do I know?

    He might not be (he might be dead in a brothel), but I suspect a lot of his followers would be totally with one of the Trumplings “taking on his mantle”.

  6. What, no poll?

    I doubt that there are enough vertebrae in relevant offices to hold Trump legally accountable for his various offenses. Put that together with what Mark, Linda, and StephenB point out, and I expect him to be the R nominee.

    1. I think there are enough vertebrae to hold him legally accountable, because there are just so many offenses in so many areas. Here’s a Rolling Stone article from 8/27/21 covering them all. (I didn’t read the entire article, but from what I did read, I got the impression that Trump’s in deep shit.) :

      https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/donald-trump-lawsuits-legal-challenges-1189110/

      If there was a poll, I’d probably tick “No opinion” as there are simply too many variables right now, 3 years out.

  7. I love the twitter disclaimer: Official sources may not have called the race when this was Tweeted.

    As if that would have mattered. If he still had twitter, he’d probably retweet this today.

  8. I think it’s likely he’ll be the the victim of a self-inflicted Big Mac Attack by 2024 but we’ll certainly see someone who appeals to a similar audience.

    1. Yup, maybe not the Donald but I wouldn’t bet against someone named Trump running for the presidency (sadly, I’m not expecting it to be the sensible niece).

  9. Such a relief not to see Trump’s nonsense every day! Of course, if he does run for 2024 the crazily protracted US presidential election cycle will be starting very soon… (Assuming that it actually ever stops.)

  10. Why should he run? He never conceded, to so many he’s still “The President.” Hell, he’s also the Second Coming.

    He can’t to run for president— he might win. All that responsibility and negative press? When he can just continue playing hard to get, rake in the cash and just blather on to devoted followers who don’t give a damn that he doesn’t make sense to his groupies.

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