The rational among us will be hoping that, in tomorrow’s Georgia senatorial runoff elections, both Democrats will win. For if they do, the Dems will have the Presidency, the House, and the Senate, and stuff can actually get done. But both elections are tossups, though I think the Democrats’ lead is widening. According to FiveThirtyEight (see below, click screenshot for more), each Democrat is leading by about 2%, but that’s well within the margin of error.
If you go to the article, you’ll see that, despite the data, you can make a case for either party (Nathaniel does so for the Democrats; Geoffrey for the Republicans). Just for fun, since we’ll know what happens by the end of the week, we’ll do a poll. And VOTE, damn you!
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I appreciate the other voters’ optimism. But I feel like every time I allow myself that little bit of hope – it’ll get crushed. So in the spirit of superstition, I say none.
I am also not hopeful, and would pessimistically bet on ‘none’ as the most likely outcome.
I voted 2, but that is, of course pure wishful thinking.The idea of Mr McConnell being curtailed is simply too delicious.
Dems are on a roll.
Either they will take both seats or they will take none. I don’t expect much ticket-splitting to occur. Which will it be? Dunno.
If that were true, I would expect the polls for each of them to be the same, but one of them seems to be doing better than the other. Additionally, some people might wish for a slight check on Democrat wokeism. It would be nice if either party’s legislation had to have at least a tiny bit of bipartisan support. The impeachment, for example, had one Republican vote in favor.
We can sort it out on Wednesday. I hope.
One Dem is up by 2.2%, the other by 1.8%.
Might not that .4% difference be noise due to sampling error, rather than statistically significant?
Though I’ll grant you that, in races as close as these, a split-ticket (while incongruous) is still a possibility
Yes, that certainly could be within the range of the poll’s error. But it is still relevant data, since the poll tallies themselves are error free. The “error” in a poll is the error in the accuracy of the inference to the true population value. There is no error in the conclusion that 0.4% of the respondents did split their ticket. We don’t know the true value of that percentage in the population as a whole, but we do know from this poll that some people are willing to split the ticket..
I agree, split tickets seem very unlikely in this election.
The triumph of hope over experience: Two.
keep hoping
According to a news report just now, just over 18,000 teenagers have become eligible to vote since 3 November and most intend to vote for the Dems. The ones interviewed were frustrated at not being able to vote in the presidential election and are keen to go to the polls now that they can.
That is encouraging to hear. Though, teenagers in my town seem to largely be Trump supporters, judging by the Trump flags and Trump slogans on so many teen driven pickup trucks around town. Of course all ages in my town are largely Trump supporters.
I donated my Stimulus payoff to the campaign
Seriously, you’re my hero.
Very well done.
Props.
Maybe it will make someone laugh, I rarely do it, but tomorrow I will pray for a Democratic victory.
It certainly won’t hurt, sometimes even the deist has moments of doubt.(deists don’t pray generaly )
The fewer lunatics and criminals in politics, the better, I think so.
I think the Democrats should, and will, win.
If they don’t, they should complain as loudly and long. The Republicans surely will if they lose, even though it would be caused by Trmp more than anyone else.
After reading the two Democrat candidates’ bios on Wikipedia (one of them was an investigative journalist), I can’t help but feel like they BOTH deserve those Senate seats if anything to keep those nasty Republican demagogues who reek of ethics violations from gaining them, and upset Turtle Mitch’s streak of flipping the middle finger to the American public as of late.
I can only hope. I think the election is too close to call.
Eliz.
I voted for both Democrats to win as it should be. In a straight up fair election in a democratic state they would wipe the floor with these republican inside stock traders. They stand for everything that is bad about the republican party and have no redeeming qualities that I am aware of.
I’ve become distrustful of polls. But I sure hope they are right.
The truth is, if the R’s win, it is because of voter suppression. They have successfully purged from the rolls voters who should be eligible, and they have made voting in democrat-strong districts so difficult that it must certainly discourage enough voters to change the outcome of close elections. Who’s going to wait on a line for 7 hours? That’s why Stacy Abrams lost.
Shelfby County v. Holder, striking down the preclearance provisions of the Voting Rights Act for states, like Georgia, with a long history of voter discrimination, has proved to be one of SCOTUS’s more ill-considered modern decisions.
Given the unseemly alacrity with which states that previously fell under the Act’s ambit began enacting voter-suppression measures almost before the ink on his signature was dry, I wonder if Chief Justice Roberts has had second thoughts regarding the prudence of his majority opinion.
Nice understatement there, counsellor: “ill considered” modern decision. hehehe
“Disaster train wreck and vandalism on democracy, systemic corruption and assholery” – how I’d have put that case summary might …be a tad strong.
D.A., J.D.
NYC
https://whyevolutionistrue.com/2020/06/10/photos-of-readers-93/
Jerry may be optimistic that we will know the results by the end of the week. Lots of mail in ballots means the incumbents may be leading tomorrow night but then the late results trickle in…the democrats win after all votes counted in Atlanta metro area..lots of voter fraud accusations…both results will possibly be recounted at least twice…..pundits will potentially have this to talk about for weeks.
The question is how hard are the Republican thumbs going to push on the scales. There’s a theory by some election integrity experts that Georgia neglected to rig the general election, Trump raises the stink of fraud, Raffensberger says the election was perfect. Georgia decides the Senate races are more important (they are) and the thumbs get placed. What can the Dems say? The GE was fair but the runoffs were corrupt?
Also keep in mind that of the 27 congressional races in the GE that were ranked as “toss-ups”, the Republicans won ALL 27. What are the chances?
So, I’m expecting the Dems lose but I hope I am wrong.
I understand your fear but I think the opposite more likely. Raffensberger made a choice to run fair elections in his state. He’s not going to go the other way now, especially after the phone call makes him a public hero. He’s now the Righteous Raffensberger and he’ll milk that for the rest of his life. It wouldn’t surprise me if he runs for a higher office at the first opportunity.
Raffensberger will look the same regardless of who wins. The rig wouldn’t be revealed. The systems are proprietary and no forensic inspection is allowed. Read Jonathan Simon’s Code Red if you think this is conspiracy theory.
Says the QAnon conspiracy theorist. I’m not reading anything you link to here without you tying it to reality. You offer none. Jonathan Simon’s Code Red my ass.
I don’t have any money on this (or at least not yet) so voted with my heart: Two.
It’s hard to see how the Republicans could’ve fielded two worse candidates — a stuffed suit who twice chickened out from showing up for a second debate against Jon Ossoff, and stock-fraud Barbie (the appointed incumbent and wife of the NY Stock Exchange chairman, who took it upon herself to wheel-and-deal COVID-vulnerable stock immediately after receiving confidential congressional pandemic briefings).
Neither one knows whether to shit or go blind when it comes to backing Trump’s planned stab at a congressional coup on Wednesday, the day after the run-off election, when Mike Pence gets to count the electoral-college votes. Both must be queasy about attending His Nibs’ rally tonight in deep-red Dalton, GA — Loeffler, in person; Perdue via Zoom (since, like seemingly every other mask-eschewing, White House super-spreader-event-attending Republican, Perdue’s been exposed to COVID) — given that there’s no telling what kinda craziness might fall outta the Stable Genius’s pie-hole tonight.
Stock Fraud Barbie. I love it! Mattel should try to get this out right away.
I think a parody based on Sex Metal Barbie by In This Moment could work pretty well.
I hope they release both Barbies, Sex Metal and Stock Fraud, but I imagine the latter as being more in the model of Lori Loughlin during her perp walk.
Well, as between shitting and going blind, the two Republican Georgia US senatorial candidates have decided to take a dump on the US constitution. Both have announced tonight that they will join the Dirty Dozen of Vichy Republican senators who will object to certifying the electoral-college results on Wednesday.
This smells of a quid pro quo demanded by Trump for not badmouthing them at his rally tonight in Dalton.
I voted ZERO because that is what I expect as likely. That expectation did not prevent this Californian from contributing twice each to Warnock, Ossoff, & Fair Fight.
I keep getting emails from these candidates’ campaigns telling me that they are losing in the polls. Clearly they are lying in order to battle donation and voter complacency. The release of Trump’s phone call with GA’s Secretary of State is a timely help. Many will be disgusted with it and, hopefully, it will keep some of those who would vote Republican home tomorrow.
I am going to go with several elections worth of data that shows Five Thirty-Eight consistently overestimating Democratic advantages, even when they claim to have corrected for previous errors. So: zero. Fool me thrice, shame on me, and all that. I would be glad to eat these words.
Yes, that’s my worry too. Plus Five Thirty-Eight have recently cast doubts on their own ability to model this race. This is also totally a turnout-driven affair which makes it pretty much impossible to predict.
zero. Despite the outcome of presidential election, and all of the nonsense that has ensued from that, republicans rarely seem to pay a price for extreme dysfunction.
I voted for dems, because I know they would win if the election was fair and the Georgia purges/suppression efforts didn’t take place. It is heartening how many votes have already been cast- mail-in which heavily favors dems. I’ve given a few hundred dollars to each candidate, and would love some ROI- I lost money on every 2020 Senate race except Mark Kelly’s.
I find it ironic that everyone is calling Raffensberger a hero for rebuking Trump, yet he’s enacting voter suppression as we speak. From Mother Jones:
“ After Black voters and Democrats used mail voting at a much higher rate than white voters and Republicans in the November election, Georgia Republicans have vowed to pass sweeping restrictions on mail voting this year. Raffensperger has endorsed these efforts, calling for an end to no-excuse absentee voting, which 1.3 million Georgians used in November, and for voter ID requirements to be extended to mail ballots. “It opens the door for potential illegal voting,” Raffensperger said of mail voting, even though his own data—which he has repeatedly cited to defend the integrity of the November election from Trump’s assault—shows no evidence of widespread voter fraud. ”
Either way, both races will be very tight, and I predict lots of recounts and more Trump chaos and meddling.
Off topic, but seeing the seditious politicians Nunes and Jordan get the medal of freedom today just shows what a corrupt joke the Republican Party has become. I wish the media would start calling the GOP for what it really is: a criminal enterprise. And I wish they would start reporting what Trump and his backers are attempting is a coup. The media dances around the topic…he’s just letting off steam, he’s just trying to keep the base engaged for the GA run-offs, it’s a long shot, it won’t work, etc. That may all be true, but it doesn’t mitigate the fact that Republicans in the highest offices, including the HIGHEST office want to subvert a fair and legal election. That’s not democracy folks.
Hell, Raffensperger’s a Republican; whaddya expect? He’s just unwilling to go full sedition for the sake of the Donald.
Raffensberger is simply ok with voter suppression as long as it is done by legal means. I suspect that’s where his line is.
Sounds about right. And Ken’s right too…he’s a Republican, whaddya expect? Republicans are as predictable as a sunrise.
That’s not so. Many Republicans would have caved to this kind of pressure from Trump. I believe that the Republicans who stand up against him (at enormous cost to themselves) have some basic integrity, though they may not share our political viewpoints. They deserve some credit.
This is an incredibly low bar to clear. It’s a bit like praising a murderer for not killing everyone in the room,.
‘From Mother Jones:
“ . . . “It opens the door for potential illegal voting,” Raffensperger said of mail voting, even though his own data—which he has repeatedly cited to defend the integrity of the November election from Trump’s assault—shows no evidence of widespread voter fraud. ”’
I’ve no reason to doubt Mother Jones. However, I not infrequently read and hear in the media the word “widespread” used in reporting on these matters. I’ve yet to see the media define “widespread” quantitatively (per cent, number of, etc). Why don’t they? What’s the minimum number of voter frauds qualifying as “widespread”? Maybe I’ve missed it. I’m reminded of how religiously good the NY Times and its ilk is to tell readers that the majority (most – what pct. is that – 51%?) of protesters were peaceful. Great. That’s the satisfactory minimum one should reasonably (if perhaps in this day and age not realistically) expect. What’s the matter with the others? Can’t resist the noble urge to loot and burn, even if it is people of color Mom and Pop small businesses?
You should be asking the Republicans what they mean. They’re the ones who keep claiming “widespread voter fraud”.
As Raffensberger explained to Trump in the recording of Trump’s “perfect” phone call to him released yesterday, of the nearly 5 million votes in Georgia in last November’s presidential election, precisely two were cast by dead people. Raffensberger further explained to Trump that investigations by both the Georgia and Federal Bureaus of Investigation have failed to uncover any additional fraud.
At this time, the expected number of seats according to the poll is 1.12.
I’m not voting above b/c it is such a bloody coin toss. You can bet the result – whoever wins – will be narrower than a cu…. than a *toe* hair AND – without any doubt – one side (and I’m NOT mentioning any names) will scream “FRAUD, ILLEGALS VOTING, DEAD VOTERS, ROBBED!!” and every other nonsense grievance we’ve come to expect from a party that used to be wrong, mostly, but at least was respectable.
Y’know, the New Woke Times a few years ago reported on the hard right shift of the GoP – placing them with their peers of not traditional conservatives like the Tories in the UK, but rather with bonkers UKIP and AfD in Germany. By their policies. Those crazed hard rightests are the US GoP’s equivalents now. The ground has shifted on the right and the left (see work of Jonathan Haidt, NYU (sp).
I’ll note in closing the GoP is the only political party in ANY democracy which denies climate change. I read that a year or so ago (I follow int’l politics fairly closely and write about it myself) and I’ve been unable to disprove it.
When they’re not woke their political and international coverage isn’t half bad, PROFESSOR!
D.A.
Proud NYer.
https://whyevolutionistrue.com/2020/06/10/photos-of-readers-93/
Sorry.. I’m mouthy today.
I wrote my column on the financial shenanigans of these people last week. I worked on Wall St for many years and I couldn’t resist writing about it here-
https://themoderatevoice.com/the-financial-criminality-of-trumpworld-an-expert-perspective/
(syndicated variously)
D.A., (writer/atty)
NYC
These kind of things make me realise how lucky we are in the Netherlands with proportional representation and coalition governments.