This CNN bulletin gives what’s likely to be the final Electoral College tally for Biden (306 votes) and Trump (232 votes). (Click on the screenshot.)
I’m letting you know because I was the first person to call the election for Biden AND to give the correct final Electoral College vote for Uncle Joe. This was in a post on November 5. I ask all the readers to avoid false idols like Nate Silver and recognize the prescience and wisdom of your host, who will now celebrate by taking a nap.
You did indeed nail it first Enjoy your nap; that’s what I’m about to do too
Big win all around.
Rest well! You deserve it.
Actually I also called it a few years back but I can’t be bothered to look. Stick a fork in it.
Last year I also forecasted that the Dems would win, but it didn’t cross my mind that it was to be President Biden! A month ago I said Biden would win bigly. But I had no idea of the final electoral vote count.
I can only recall saying that Trump would not be reelected and I was a small minority here at the time. This was long before Biden or anyone to run against. But as always, Trump was running against himself.
Trump has a big limp.
All hail PCC(E)!
So Jerry, about those lottery numbers….
Time to head to the corner store for a scratch it?
We are not worthy!
I first came across the Trump phenomenon when working in The States years ago….They are businesmen with low intelligence (Trump is on the level of a thirteen year old) but combined with an astonishing strategic mind… cunning and manipulative. The lack of intelligence is seen in his indifference to the lives and miseries of people around him… He has a teenager’s indifference to others. He has little or no awareness of society at large; its complexities and its importance to our overall understanding. In this weakness he reminds me of British conservatoves like Thatcher or our present Boris Johnston. Both totally blind to the idea of mutually dependent societies. But it is in his strategic world that the full horror becomes apparent… The world of alternative facts, of name-calling, of clever lies, and of initiating chaos by which to profit. I strongly suspect that it crossed Trumps mind to insult American blacks to bring them onto the streets in BLM marches, and then order the military to fire upon them for a few looters, allowing him to declare a State of Emergency and then suspend the election results. American just came close to losing its democracy…
George in France
Similar thoughts crossed my mind. Trump types are scheming and unprincipled. Glad he will be going, although I believe Trump is still going to do considerable harm before we are finally rid of him.
Oy, master!
Oh oh. I just used a cancelled word.
”
phoffman56
Posted November 4, 2020 at 10:29 pm
I’ll hide my embarrassed self-flagellation for having predicted Biden 370-170 roughly in the EC by just having done it in this same nice short sentence and again going out on a limb with Biden winning both PA and Georgia tomorrow
–>so his margin would be 72 at the EC<–
which is pretty close to 200 if you don’t think about it too much. No commas either.
Actually … Nevada would then lose its fame in this election.
"
So I came close. The "72" instead of the correct 74 must have been because I just doubled the 270 magic number to 540, so thought 306 to 234, not 306 to 232.
That lengthy initial sentence was supposed to be a joke–"…hide my embarrassed self-flagellation ….by just having done it in this same nice short sentence…"—-"No commas either."
Drumpf won 306 in 2016, but only got 304 at EC because of 2 recalcitrant Texans who probably voted for some even worse spoiler candidate than Drumpf, if that's possible.
So it can be said that Mass Murder donald's total 2016+2020 EC vote is less than Clinton+Biden, assuming no hanky-panky at EC this time.
Any minute now, the Donald will be speaking publicly for the first time in over a week. Maybe he’s coming out on the WH South Portico to carp about WEIT calling the election too soon. 🙂
Or maybe he’ll give a graceful and magnanimous concession spee … ha, ha that notion is too ridiculous to complete.
That’s too bad. Ending The celebration
Nate might be Silver, but you’re pure Gold, PCC.
**golf clap**
Well done, lad. Well done.
And now a message of ” prescience and wisdom ”
from fellow Chicagan, Dr Philip Skiba / his tweet:
” We are getting bum – rushed in Illinois.
I AM BEGGING YOU: impose your own lockdown.
Park your ass at home. Don’t go anywhere.
Don’t see anyone. This is about to get
way worse. ”
Today = of Eastern Iowa’s 17 hospitals ?
ONLY two of these joints have ANY available
ICU beds. That is, 15 such hospitals’ ICU units
are, right now, AT capacity. AND are refusing
to take IN any further patients.
Happy ThanksG I V I N G. My ass is … … parked.
Blue
Uncanny prognostication, PCC(E).
We bow down.
I genuflect in the direction of the City of Big Shoulders.
Well done, PCC(e).
Now, can you tell us what to expect in the Georgia Senate races?
And when the crazy orange monster is going to admit to reality.
Not possible, Janet—the event you refer to could only take place in an alternate universe, the same one in which pigs fly and the Titanic steamed through the iceberg without ever making physical contact with it. There is no ‘when’ in that place…
My prediction, about which I’m less certain, is that the Democrats won’t take both of them.
“I hear the sound of victory …” This is pure gold:
https://youtu.be/TzIym0eZsH0
Thanks, that was very excellent.
Now all you need to do is collect your winnings! Cheers!
When you start forecasting Raiders wins, and that happens, I will bow before you.
🙂
Congratulations! Have the people who you had the bets with paid up yet, or are they waiting it out with Trump (and entirely coincidentally, I’m sure) Putin?
I have a bet with PCC(E) that the election would be decided in the Supreme Court. We are waiting by mutual agreement,in case Trump appeals enough of his silly legal challenges to that court…
Fair enough, though with some of Trump’s legal teams withdrawing from their challenges today it sounds like it won’t be long. Though I suspect losing will be a price that you are happy to pay.
Yes, even if I lose, I win!
Give it up, Lou. Ain’t gonna happen.
Yes, it is looking like Trump’s silly claims aren’t even getting past the first tier of judges, much less the Supreme Court. And it looks like the swing states are standing firm about sending the correct electors to the EC. I had not expected that the Republican state officials would stand up to Trump. I am pleasantly surprised.
I’m done with atheism. There’s a new god in town!
Unbecoming.
?
I think we have a rude comment.
I put into writing on November 12th 2016 that Trump would lose badly. I thought it was fairly obvious as ZERO STATES could go from blue to red.
But more than a handful could go from red to blue.
And if you just switch MI, PA, and WI to their rightful colors since the late 1980s and early 1990s (blue) it immediately closes the election out with at 280 electoral college votes.
This means Trump can still win FL, still win OH, still win all the other states he won, but when he lost MI, WI, PA (solidly blue states) it automatically ends the election.
I predicted he knew this and that he would just be “unconventional” and announce he wasn’t interested in a 2nd term. He’d “retire”.
Of course I was wrong about that but was correct that he’d lose badly. I actually believed the polls and thought it would have been much worse (closer to 10 million / 10% than 5 million / 5%). So he did a lot better than I would have guessed in the weeks leading to the election.
https://imgur.com/a/DN0kBcD
Side note: In February of 2013 I predicted that Tammy Duckworth would be a future Secretary of State…lol. That is approaching 8 years ago and I’d say there is about a 20% chance it happens…but probably not?
https://imgur.com/a/kngseTV
https://imgur.com/a/Yom7RWa
I was right about Clinton losing (which I called pretty much as soon as it was clear would be the nominee, and repeated when she named the profoundly mediocre Tim Kane as her VP candidate).
But I was wrong this time in predicting Tr*** would win, or would lose but stage a successful coup. (He still might, and I won’t be relieved until Biden does actually get voted in by the EC, and then also takes office, but especially given the support of other world leaders for Biden, I think the moron will have to go.)
Of course, the US now suddenly has a politically active +70 million anti-democracy Christian white nationalist movement, but it would have been immeasurably worse had Biden and Harris not achieved this victory.
Prediction? Prescience?
I thought we were all hard determinists here!
Why is making a prediction, about which I had no choice, non-deterministic. And “prescience” just refers to the accuracy of the determined prediction.
You are absolutely right: I was hoping to get such a comment.:)
Even though deterministic outcomes are “inevitable”, humans (and other animals) invest a lot of energy in “predicting” those outcomes.
It’s very hard to get one’s head around the fact that a deterministic event in itself is non-probabilistic (only one possible outcome) and that we conceive of it as being “probabilistic”: ie. having many possible outcomes (and therefore having a basis in “chance” and “preference”).
I would have to conclude also that human behaviour plays its part in deciding outcomes (deterministically) though giving an impression of non-deterministic intervention (eg. attempted prediction and its resultant behaviour).
“…lose but stage a successful coup. … I won’t be relieved until Biden … takes office….US now suddenly has a politically active +70 million anti-democracy Christian white nationalist movement..”
But no coup possible AFTER Jan. 20 ?
There will soon enough be never-ending lies and propaganda about Biden fucking up on Covid, in contrast to the relatively ineffective attempts by the Dems to convince the same of Drumpf before November, when he’d clearly been mass murdering. If you disagree with the last, ask Woodward and his niece.
Sorry–reply to 26.
I congratulate you.
306 to Biden, nobody could have known that. Many people are saying it was the greatest prediction ever.
However, I urge caution. There are a number of lawsuits in process regarding election fraud and also some recounts. These will probably be devastating to Biden, leaving him with only 306 electoral college votes.
LOL
I can lay claim to having predicted Trump’s 2016 victory, in the WEIT comment section, only a week or so before the election.
This time I was very confident Biden would win, but I thought it would be a lot less close. I thought he was going to get decimated. The fact that he got as many votes as he did, after letting a quarter of a million Americans die, after the exhausting chaos of four years, after everything…is astonishing. It says something about his bewildering brilliance at lying that he ran his entire campaign as though he was the challenger and that all the violence and chaos and death that occurred over the last nine months had nothing to do with him. He repeatedly said ‘this is what you’ll get under a Biden presidency!’ while pointing to videos of violence and rioting that happened during his presidency.
The chutzpah it takes to pull that off…it’s like the guy who kills his parents and then throws himself on the mercy of the court because he’s now an orphan. And he does some variation on it every time he opens his mouth. I really have never seen anything like it – he must be the most extraordinarily effective liar in recorded human history.
And yet, in this day and age, anyone can check most of his claims by investigating on the internet. It schocks me that it is still so easy to lie.
I do suspect that things were much worse in the distant past, with no resources available to the average man to fact-check leaders’ claims.
shocks