Who will be Biden’s VP choice?

July 12, 2020 • 11:30 am

Traditionally the Vice-Presidential candidate is named in July or August, and that time is upon us. We know that Pence will be Trump’s VP candidate, and I hope both go down in flames. But who will be Biden’s?

Joe has said he’ll name a woman as the candidate, and many Dems are also plumping for a woman of color. My only hope is that the person is good, especially because, in view of Biden’s age, she may well be the first woman President.  I have no preference, nor any dog in this fight, but I hope Uncle Joe chooses well.

In his column in this week’s New York Magazine, in which he takes on the usual three topics, Andrew Sullivan muses on the candidate, guessing that she won’t be a “progressive” who could be attacked by Trump and the GOP for being too woke.

Click on the screenshot below to read (the three topics are Trump’s defeat by the coronavirus, which, says Sullivan, will cause him to lose the election in November unless Biden screws up; the Roberts court and which decisions Sullivan approves of (the religious ones!); and the rebuilding of Notre Dame in Paris in the original style (thank god!). The stuff about the VP is folded into the first section, the rest of which you can read for yourself (click on the screenshot):

Sullivan:

Another reason Biden might avoid a culture-war election is that every issue has now been subsumed into or dwarfed by the pandemic and unemployment crisis and a fight over trans rights, say, seems peripheral in contrast. And then there’s simply Joe Biden’s affect, record, and faith. It’s hard to see this lifelong Catholic really conniving with neo-Marxist atheists pledging to “dismantle whiteness.” He’s clearly not in favor of allowing crime to run rampant in the streets. He has made a critical distinction between Confederate statues and those of the Founders, and he has insisted that any removal of monuments be done peacefully and democratically. It’s just hard to paint him as a stalking horse for Ilhan Omar, as some on the right hope to. It doesn’t work.

Because of this, I suspect, the veep choice will be more important than usual. No men need apply, Biden has told us. No white women either, perhaps, if Amy Klobuchar’s withdrawal from consideration turns out to be dispositive. And the nonwhite woman who will therefore be nominated will have yet another burden: Because of Biden’s advanced age, and the likelihood of his serving only one term, she will be deemed the future leader-in-waiting. The GOP media-industrial-complex will define her pretty quickly as the person who is really in charge and try to run against her, rather than against Biden. I hope Biden is figuring out how to counter this obvious strategy and doesn’t walk into a trap. Kamala Harris? Susan Rice? To be honest, I don’t know. But if the Trump narrative is that Biden’s surface centrism disguises a resurgent far left, and that he’ll be a puppet of the woke, the veep choice may matter more than it otherwise might.

Were I to guess, I’d guess Kamala Harris, a reliable centrist who is also a person of color, with a Jamaican father and a (late) Tamil mother. Her stands are on the liberal side, she’s experienced, and she’s popular. But, you know, what do I know? I’m a biologist, not a pundit. Put your guesses below.

I’ll add a quote about the pandemic, since that’s the real topic of Sullivan’s piece:

But the virus will be the real swing voter in this election. The sheer scale of the health crisis, and its current trajectory, obviously sweeps every other issue before it, as it should. It sure hasn’t ended the culture war, which at the elite level is arguably more intense than ever, but it is in the driving seat of the economy, and that is almost always dispositive. If we enter November closing in on 200,000 deaths, with the toll rising, and in a virally caused economic slump, I just can’t see how any incumbent can get elected, and I’m usually pretty good at seeing the worst.

The only way Trump can win is to ignore the pandemic or lie about it. He is trying both right now, and neither tactic is working. And as it becomes clearer and clearer that the U.S. is now a disgraced and humiliated outlier in the developed world in its tackling of the virus, Trump’s ultimate responsibility for this dismal response and thereby our struggling economy will be harder and harder to deny. We may even be approaching the moment when the cult finally cracks. Which suggests to me a Biden and Democratic landslide is no longer out of the question.

The world is laughing at us, when they are not crying at what we have become. And if that isn’t the Trumpiest reason to vote against Trump, I don’t know what could be.

These three paragraphs, and especially the last two sentences, are eloquent—journalism at its best.

118 thoughts on “Who will be Biden’s VP choice?

      1. Yeah Diana, I know that feeling. I thought Mr Inslee was the best presidential candidate by far, and look where that went.
        And I think Ms Rice would make the best VP by far. Especially if the V were to fall away.

  1. Susan Rice is most qualified. The question is if there are any hidden skeletons in her history.

    Val Demings would be great to manage police reform.

    Kamala Harris is probably a better “retail” politician.

  2. I am so impressed by the depth of the bench here. So much experience and competence to choose from!!

    If Harris is chosen for VP, Rice would make a fine Secretary of State. If Rice is chosen, Harris would be great as Atty. General.

    I would be nervous about Warren, if only because she comes from a State with a Republican governor. If the Senate is close, she’s going to be needed there. If it’s not close, though, she’d make a fine Treasury Secretary.

    I am down on Stacy Abrams. She does not have enough experience, and shows no desire to work her way up. She should have run for the Senate, especially since GA has two seats up. I feel the same way about Beto O’Rourke, who should have run against Cornyn.

    Duckworth? I like her a lot, too. If not for VP, Defense Secretary?

    Again, lots of great choices. Wow.

    L

    1. What do you mean that Stacy Abrams lacks experience? She has already appointed herself governor of Georgia.

      I agree that both Kamala Harris and Susan Rice are impressive candidates. However, the idea that the VP candidate must be a WOC—ruling out every other possible choice —seems to me a case of identity politics
      at its most cultish. Wouldn’t it be fine if intelligence, experience, and political ideas were the principal criteria in selecting a VP candidate, but I guess that is too much to hope for.

      On the Republican side, VP choices are cartoonish to be sure, but one might review some past attempts at identity politics. Richard Nixon chose a member of an ethnic
      minority, and John McCain cleverly chose a woman politician.

      1. … John McCain cleverly chose a woman politician.

        And that probably cost him the election. Not because she was a woman, but because she was a looney woman.

      2. The VP selection is always about “identity politics” of some kind — Trump put Pence on the ticket to placate the hard-right evangelicals, just as JFK named LBJ in 1960 to placate the southern conservatives in his party, as LBJ named Hubert Humphrey in ’64 to placate the northern liberals (the same reason Carter put Fritz Mondale on the ’76 ticket), as Poppy Bushed named Dan Quayle in a misguided effort to appeal to younger voters, as Barack named Biden to reassure white voters, and you’ve already covered Moose-a-lini in 2008.

        1. To which we can add such worthies as Millard Fillmore and Andrew Johnson. I rest my case.

          In the few cases where a VP turned out to have a little character and/or intelligence —-say Teddy Roosevelt, Harry Truman, and Al Gore—it was almost an accident. One might hope for better choice criteria.

      3. Mr Nixon naming Mr Agnew, are Greek Americans an etnic minority now, or rather were then? It got him the large Greek American vote? I do not understand your point, but then there are a lot of things in US politics I don’t know or understand.

  3. I would also go with Kamala Harris. Earlier this year, when Sanders was all the rage, I predicted a Biden/Klobuchar ticket. Klobuchar has taken herself out of consideration so I am going with my second choice, Harris.

    One thing to keep in mind, in every election since 1944, with one exception, the Democrats have picked a sitting senator as their veep candidate (when there is no incumbent). The one exception was in 1984 when Walter Mondale picked Geraldine Ferraro, a member of the House.

    In 1972, the initial choice by George McGovern was Thomas Eagleton, a senator from Missouri, who stood down after it was disclosed that he had received electroshock therapy for depression. Sargent Shriver, not a senator, took his place on the ticket.

  4. Laurence Kotlikoff recommends Condoleeza Rice as VP.

    “She’s a Republican, but she’s no ideologue. Consequently, she will instantly appeal to independents across the nation. Her selection would constitute a unity ticket and deprive President Trump not only of most votes in the middle, but millions of votes on the right.

    What everyone will immediately recognize in Secretary Rice is that she can, as needed, run the country. This isn’t simply due to her knowledge of foreign affairs, her deep experience with matters of national security and her close relationships with former and current world’s top leaders. It’s also because of her experience outside of government.”

    https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/501685-joe-bidens-ideal-vp-is-condoleezza-rice

    1. Condoleeza Rice?! To quote Dana Garvey’s George Bush the First: Not. Gonna. Happen.

      Forget about crossing party lines. The stench of Dubya’s misbegotten and ill-executed wars wafts from the yoke around her neck like a dozen-years’ dead albatross.

      1. I think Condoleezza Rice is one of the most overrated security/foreign policy wonks of all time, with both 9/11 and the erroneous Iraq war intel happening under her watch.

        Very surprised she escaped relatively unscathed from those 2 disasters.

    2. That would be super interesting, and possibly pull in some never-Trump Republicans who might otherwise just stay home on election day.

      Though I’m going to go old school, and hope he picks someone who can help him take Georgia or Florida. Yes, ideally a POC or woman or both, in order to galvanize the left wing of the Dem party to show up. Some recognizion of them is really needed, otherwise the Dems could lose just based on voter apathy. However, it’s still about electoral college math people, not majority vote. Florida’s 29 votes counts more than any extra millions of votes Harris could bring in over in California.

      1. I doubt it would make much difference to Never Trumpers. After all, they know that Condoleeza Rice, being a serious and intelligent person, would be gone in months if not weeks. Picking C. Rice for VP would be regarded as a Trump move solely for the purpose of trying to boost his re-election chances. And, for both these reasons, Rice wouldn’t want to have anything to do with Trump. If she has thoughts of running for president some day, it would be in some other party than Trump’s GOP.

          1. Yes, you are correct. I thought the context was obvious from the original post, that we are talking about Joe Biden and his VP choice.

    3. I did say this was interesting but had some time to think of it, and concluded that although still an interesting idea, it is not a good idea. Let’s be honest and say the intention here is to stir up the African American vote, and I don’t think this will do it.

        1. Making Warren VP candidate would allow a Republican governor to fill her Senate seat. IMO this unfortunately disqualifies her.

          1. I disagree. I think the Senate can go at least 50-50 without Warren, but none of it will matter if Trump is re-elected. Warren is the best choice for VP to keep that from happening.

          2. I think the most electable VP would be someone more centrist than Warren – Susan Rice, Kamala Harris, or Val Demings. Warren, while energizing the left, scares a lot of centrists and independents. Her wealth tax scared a lot of liberals.

          3. Her wealth tax? Seriously? You mean the long-forgotten plan that would have affected those with assets over $50 million (less than 0.1% of Americans.) I really doubt that many “liberals” would have given that much thought.

        2. There are several who have this or that factor for them, while also having strikes against them. Anyway, Biden said he will pick a Woman of Color (WOC), and that leaves out E. Warren (who is WOKE).

          1. Where has Biden said he will pick a woman of color? He has said he will pick a woman, period. And Warren is WOKE? Horrors. You say that like it’s a bad thing.

          2. “Warren is Woke”

            Yes, it’s a bad thing though I doubt if she’s very woke. She’s just trying to jump onto the band wagon by doing what the young kids are doing these days. She also claims to be a capitalist but that also sounds calculated to distance herself from Bernie and be less scary to centrists.

          3. So, not very woke. It would be interesting to see what gradations of woke you would allow, although the woke-fear that runs rampant is a bit sad. Warren wrote the book on reining in Wall St, pushes for public education, gun control, single-payer health care, and a number of other positions that are too WOKE for most people, I guess.

    4. Condoleeza or Susan, I’d go for either. I always had a soft spot for Condi, despite me disagreeing on many a point.

  5. Duckworth should be Sec. of Defense. Harris is AG. As I said earlier, Rice is VP. She has the brains and experience to step right in. The important thing in all of this is, the Senate must turn blue.

    1. I also might wonder if some of this country will even be able to hold an election in November. Today we have a new record in Florida with 15,299 new cases in one day. There may be damn few people left down there to even vote.

  6. In truth, I think a lot of the push for a woman of color on the ticket stems from the “anybody-but-Warren” camp. And so many Trump-skeptical conservatives, e.g., George Will, Jennifer Rubin, Brooks, Sullivan, are anxious to weigh in on who benefits Biden, who he should pick, etc. I hope his people ignore this group.

  7. Biden’s selection will have nothing to do with whether this is a culture war election or not. That factor is entirely under the control of the Republican Party and tRump and they will go that way because it is all they have. I don’t think that his selection will have any significant effect on the outcome of the election other than potentially reducing some Dem turnout if the choice is seen to be too conservative. Remember… Biden already owns the “moderate” position. A more progressive selection will help bring in the Sanders/Warren wing of the party.

  8. We know that Pence will be Trump’s VP candidate …

    Do we really? I strongly suspect this will be the case. But if Trump were to conclude it would help him even incrementally to name a new running-mate — say a Nikki Haley (assuming she would demean herself to accept) — he would do it in a New York second, despite Pence’s having crawled so far up Trump alimentary canal even his wife, “Mother,” can rarely reach him by cell phone. The only thing that would stop Trump from doing so is fear of a revolt by evangelicals, whose support Pence was put on the 2016 ticket to secure.

    Plus, dumping Pence would give Trump a scapegoat to blame his administration’s arrant botching of its COVID-19 crisis response on, since Pence is head of the White House’s bogus “task force.”

    “Loyalty,” for Trump, is like Fifth Avenue in front of Trump Tower — strictly a one-way street.

      1. She has indeed. But accepting the bottom half of the ticket on what Trump undoubtedly will turn into a complete shit-show of a campaign would ruin her future in electoral politics. Haley has too much ambition, and much too strong an instinct for self-preservation, for that.

    1. Trump will have a hard time attracting a semi-competent running mate like Nikki Haley if he can’t get his numbers way up.

      1. ” . . . a semi-competent running mate like Nikki Haley . . . .”

        Yes, she know how to stroke the collective ego of her constituency. I remember that, while she was South Carolina governor, she touted “South Carolina values,” as compared to California values, whatever that means in either case.

        I find myself highly admiring Tammy Duckworth for standing her ground with the mouthy chicken hawk likes of tRump and Tucker Carlson. As she put it, I’d like to see them “walk a mile in her legs.”

        1. I always read “South Carolina values” as a mild racial dog whistle, especially if she winked while saying it. Of course it has the advantage of plausible deniability against such a charge.

          1. That was back when she was in favor of keeping the Stars’n’Bars flying atop the South Carolina capitol, before she was against it.

            Nikki don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.

    2. David Duke has endorsed tRump again and wants him to replace Pence with Tucker Carlson. I can see tRump doing that.

          1. The spectacle of Trump throwing Pence to the wolves as a covid scapegoat would be delightful. And then, The Donald picking Betsy DeVos as his running mate (as the phrase goes) would complete the show.

          2. If Trump wants to drive his polls even lower, he’d pick DeVos. She’s horrible. Someone like Tucker or Hannity would be much better for him.

          3. One of the readers here stated (forgotten who it was) it nicely:
            If Trump says he knows everything about something, you know he knows nothing.
            If he says he knows nothing about something, he knows something and it is bad.

      1. Carlson as VP with Trump would make the whole thing interesting again. Carlson would get setup to be the candidate in 2024, and would put a little juice into the Trump campaign. I doubt it will happen, though.

        1. That’s scary. Why do you think it won’t happen? As I mentioned in another comment, Trump has to be looking to upset the apple cart since he’s doing so poorly in the polls. I don’t know much about Tucker Carlson but I don’t see how it would hurt his career. He could make a deal with Fox to get his old job back if Trump loses. It wouldn’t hurt Fox to have one of their own to be in the White House.

          1. For one thing, Carlson might upstage Trump, and Trump doesn’t want that. For another, the GOP platform this year is “our platform in 2016 was perfect, we aren’t changing anything,” which isn’t much to go on. If Carlson is interested in the office, he would be better off avoiding the baggage of Trump and just waiting until 2024.

          2. I don’t know about Carlson specifically, but these media types on Fox seem likely to be publicity hounds with shallow or non-existent morals. He’d fit right in with Trump. I think he’s smart enough to know it has no real future, even if Trump were to win, but I’m imagining he’d do it for the publicity. In fact, it is very much like Trump’s own reason to run for president in 2016: it would be good for his brand even if he loses. The fact that Trump is likely to lose in November might in fact be a plus for Carlson, assuming he really doesn’t want to be in public office. Outshining Trump wouldn’t be a problem as Carlson probably has no agenda. He would continue to shill for Trump much as he does already.

        2. And Blake Neff, Carlson’s top writer at Faux News just fired for making racist postings on an online forum, could become Trump’s speechwriter.

  9. My first choice would be Michelle Obama, since she would provide Biden the best chance of winning. Then Biden could resign the day after his inauguration, and turn the government over to her.

    My close second choice would be Elisa Slotkin of Michigan.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/elissa-slotkin-e2-80-99s-reluctant-war-with-donald-trump/ar-BB16zkzl

    That said, I’m not sure there is even going to be an election, or whether it will matter:

    https://www.newsweek.com/how-trump-could-lose-election-still-remain-president-opinion-1513975

    1. That doomsday scenario is feasible, but only in a close race. If you popular vote margin is greater than 5 points or so, Bill Barr won’t be able to pull it off. It would require the corrupt cooperation of the DOJ leadership (including FBI), most of GOP congress, and the legislators of all the involved (contested) swing states.

      But that doomsday scenario is certainly something to keep in mind and keep an eye on.

    2. Then Biden could resign the day after his inauguration, and turn the government over to her.

      Sounds like the stuff of fan fiction.

      Elisa Slotkin would make an excellent pick for a cabinet-level post in the intelligence community — director of the CIA, Director of National Intelligence, or maybe National Security Advisor. But as a VP candidate she’d bring nothing to the table in terms of electoral politics.

    3. “Michelle Obama”

      I think having spouses or family members of ex-presidents running is a terrible idea.

  10. As you say, the VP picks are to be made soon, at, or just before, the party conventions.

    I am not so sure Pence is a shoe-in. Trump would not reveal a replacement before the convention but he’s obviously looking for ways to shake things up and I’m pretty sure he doesn’t view abandoning Pence as any kind of huge loss. Finally, he dumps everyone eventually. It’s Pence’s time to be loaded into the cannon.

    For Biden’s VP, I pick Susan Rice by a mile. Kamala Harris is not very likable as she proved in the primaries. Also, her law-and-order background might not sit as well with the BLM constituency. Susan Rice is probably neutral on that score. Susan Rice also makes up for Biden’s weakness when it comes to foreign policy. His age makes it hard for him to keep up with the detailed thinking that involves. I’m not saying Biden is bad on foreign policy but I would not want to hear him try to do a Q&A on it, whereas Susan Rice would breeze through it.

    1. … Biden’s weakness when it comes to foreign policy.

      What??? As a US senator, Biden was chairman of the senate foreign relations committee (a job he resigned the chairmanship of the judiciary committee to take). And Obama used him most widely as VP regarding foreign affairs.

      If Obama hadn’t picked him for VP, Biden would’ve been in the running against Hillary Clinton (or, if not against Clinton in the first term, then certainly against Kerry in the second) to be Secretary of State (the job old Uncle Joe would’ve probably preferred).

      Foreign affairs is much more a strong suit for Biden than is domestic policy.

      1. That’s a fair point but I was thinking more of how it would test Biden’s memory and his ability to make gaffes. Biden surely wants to avoid giving Trump’s allies ammunition for their “over the hill” argument. Such gaffes would also undercut the argument that Trump is incompetent and not all there. Relying on Biden’s record in foreign policy is a good thing but Rice might be helpful going forward.

  11. I think Kamala is probably the front-runner. But if she isn’t nominated to the Veep slot, look for her to be our next attorney general, called in to clean up the dispirited swamp William Barr will have left behind.

    After all, before she was a US senator, Harris was the attorney general of California, meaning she’s already overseen the world’s third largest justice department.

    1. Kamala Harris as AG would be a good choice. Assuming she has come to grips with her terrible primary performance, she should see it as the best career step she could possibly make at this point.

      1. I don’t think Harris’s performance in the primaries comes into play. I can’t think of a single US attorney general that’s been appointed (or not) on the strength of his or her performance in a presidential campaign.

        1. I think you may have missed my point. Her past campaign performance would have nothing to do with her acceptability for the AG position. Just the opposite. Her bad performance in the primaries means she is not presidential material and, therefore, she shouldn’t be angling for VP. Instead, AG is her best career move by far.

    2. Given Harris is from a safe state and proved herself an inept campaigner in the primaries, I cannot see why people keep saying she’s the front runner. Back in the day, you chose someone to help you win. Often it was someone who could play dirty so the prez candidate could take the high road. I can’t see Harris being able to do that either.

      1. Often it was someone who could play dirty so the prez candidate could take the high road.

        As Ike did Nixon and Nixon, Agnew and Ford, Dole.

  12. Not happening within .THIS. Universe:

    Vice President Dr Susan Rice
    will help President Biden nominate and confirm
    Brandeis Professor and Attorney Dr Anita Hill
    to the very next US Supreme Court’s
    j u s t i c e – opening.

    Blue

    1. I agree there would be a certain cosmic-justice aspect to naming Anita Hill to SCOTUS.

      But she turns 64 this month, a bit old by modern standards for a president looking to establish a long-term judicial legacy. And she has no experience at all on the bench — which has become all but de rigueur for SCOTUS appointees over the past several decades.

      I don’t think there’s been anyone nominated to SCOTUS without formal judicial experience since Nixon’s appointments of William Rehnquist and Lewis Powell. And I think to find one who came straight from academia, you might have to go all the way back to FDR’s appointment of Felix Frankfurter.

      1. Yeah, Mr Kukec, that I knew:
        the never been, yet, a judge – part.

        So, though, since there have been several
        other such SCOTUS justices, then there can
        be,
        in re egalitarianism as well as in re skill,
        .as many. such ones, now, who are women … … as, in the past, there have been the male ones. Not ?

        http://www.facebook.com/saffron.cobra

        Blue

  13. I’m going for the long shot and picking Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. She has been getting a lot of air time on CNN and comes across as smart, confident, eloquent, and direct

  14. I disagree with Sullivan. I do not think Covid is the most important issue facing our country. I think that is where Democrats think they can most effectively fight Trump. I think it is BLM and the survival of pluralist democracy. I would like a Vice Presidential candidate who will stand up to the first, and stand up for the second, especially since I have little confidence in Biden’s health. (For that matter, I’d like to see Trump jettison Pence.)

  15. My choice is whoever adds the most value in the form of swing state electoral college votes. All other considerations are secondary.

    I have no idea who this is. That’s what political strategists are for.

    1. Florida seems the obvious choice. It’s purple, gets a lot of electoral college votes, and is currently going through a second wave of COVID while Trump hamhandedly pushes for everything to reopen.

      Their economy is significantly dependent on tourism, though, so Biden would need to pick someone who can balance the message “Trump let you down/we’ll do a better job containing and mitigating the disease” without implying “we’re going to demand you shut down your economy.”

      Pick someone popular in the panhandle, maybe that helps you pick up some votes in Georgia and Alabama too.

  16. Sheeit…does he even need a VP at this point? Yes, needs to be a woman. Other than that, the reset button has been pushed. We’ll see…

  17. Warren was my choice for president, with a younger VP; since Biden is the pick, I think a younger VP would make the ticket more electable.

    Rice is excellent, but she has never held an elected position.

    I have been emailing Duckworth regularly for three years, as I live in Illinois, and I very much like the responses that I have received from her office.

    Having thought for months that she would be an excellent choice for VP, it was surprising to read that New York Times opinion article concurring. The additional information about her that the article provided reinforced my opinion.

  18. Not being in the US (and thus having little skin in the game), I was hoping for a Buttigieg / Harris ticket at the beginning of the primaries. If half that gets in, I’ll be happy, so I’m hoping it ends up being Kamala Harris. Though at the end of the day, I just hope it’s someone that helps in swing states.

          1. Plus he’s incredibly intelligent and I8m sure willing to learn on the job – unlike The Moron. Thanks

          2. That’s what interpreters are for. I’d prefer someone with more experience than a few years as a small-town mayor.

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