Even before the pandemic struck, I was fairly certain that Donald Trump would be defeated this November. Well, least the polls—which of course are not 100% trustworthy at this point—said so. As I recall, both Biden and Sanders were potential defeaters of the Orange Maniac, and the various polls were fairly consistent, and remain so through early March.
Now that Trump has bungled the handling of the epidemic, makes daily statements about it so palpably stupid that even a “deplorable” can see through them, and gives himself a ten out of ten in handling the crisis, I think his chances of victory are even slimmer. And that’s on top of the economy, which is heading south so fast it will reach Antarctica before the summer.
Because of this, I bet a friend in my department one hundred dollars that Trump will lose in November, no matter whom the Democrats run (I bet on Trump losing). I made the offer after my friend said, “Trump’s gonna win whatever happens.” (He dislikes Trump at least as much as I do.) I replied, “Would you like to bet on that?” “Sure”, he said. I said, “How much?” And he mentioned a hundred simoleons, and I said, “You’re on.” Because we can’t shake hands, we bumped elbows.
Now this isn’t the kind of bet I usually make during an election. I usually find a fairly sure thing, like an Obama win in his second term, and then find a Democrat who’s so scared of Republicans winning that they are willing to bet on Obama losing. I always point out to said mark that if the Democrat wins, he’d be glad to pay me, and if the Democrat loses, he’d at least get some dosh as consolation. (These sucker bets have all been with men.) I won twice on this during Obama’s two runs, accruing two duck dinners—those were the days before my duck-tending started—and several hundred bucks to boot.
This time I made a lose-lose bet, because if Trump wins, I not only lose $100 but I also have to face the country degenerating even further in The Moron’s second term. I still am comfortable with my bet, but what do you think?
Would you bet on Trump losing at this point? If so, how much? Or would you bet on Biden losing; and if so, how much?
I think you’ve got a very high chance of winning.
Then again, I’ve been wrong before.
Bernie would win, Biden will lose. It might be close if he picks a white woman from the midwest as veep. But if he picks Michelle, many more haters will emerge than the few old moderate Democrats who remember her fondly.
Where does this “Michelle” stuff come from? She has no interest in being a politician.
https://www.google.com/search?q=michelle+obama+vice+president&rlz=1C1GCEC_enUS861US861&oq=michelle+obama+v&aqs
You got it from a google search? Lol!
Zero percent chance of Michelle. But, hey, if you’d like to get a bet down on it (like the mark our host managed to find in his own UC department) name your price.
I’ll cover any amount you can count.
I don’t think she will be it. But here on the left coast there is plenty of talk among the university-based Trump and Bernie haters (same group) that Michelle is who they want and need. I don’t agree with them. I think Michelle would kill the ticket, for sure.
I am surprised that folks here are so surprised to find out that she is being mentioned by so many even though she had said she is not interested.
No one is surprised she’s being mentioned. Many things get mentioned. We’re surprised someone takes those mentions seriously.
+ 1. And only in a state where Bernie is so popular could there be a belief that a could win easily. It’s similar to a deep red Trump state in that way. Bernie is not able to win the Democratic primary, and should get out now and put his strength behind Biden before he does too much damage to the party as a whole.
They may be negotiating conditions as we speak. Bernie gets out now and Biden agrees to support universal free dental hygiene. Something like that.
Clean teeth, clean minds.
Some of us are content to settle for the “conscientiously applied program of dental hygiene and regular professional care” half alone. 🙂
Have you seen Biden’s teeth! They are explicitly electable.
Yes, Biden is out to an early lead on the all-important dentition factor.
@Ken Always be wary of the anti-dentite vote. There’s a lot more of them about than you’d think.
Agree. If she ever thought of it, I’m sure 2009-2017 cured her of the idea!
I’d bet an even hundred on Trump winning. I think we fail to appreciate the hold he has on a good part of the electorate. The metric I always come back to is his winning 52% of white women voters. That does not happen if voters can be expected to be rational.
I bet dinner for four last fall that Trump would win. Once I saw this ratings go up for his ‘handling’ of the ‘China Virus Thing’ I added a fine bottle of wine to the dinner.
I think you will win this bet – with the dishonourable exception of my country’s own PM Boris Johnson I can think of no leader who has more comprehensively mangled the job of handling this crisis.
Really? Boris is second only to Trump in handling the crisis? There is little, if any, evidence of that so far.
On current figures (they change by the moment and tell far from the whole story) Italy has almost 32,000 recorded case, the UK about 2,000 (for similar populations).
Ireland 223 v Norway 1,500, for similar pops.
UK v Netherlands(with a third of the pop): 2000 v 1,700.
Of course we don’t yet know how far along different counties are with the epidemic, etc, etc, etc. Which is why your claim is, as I noted, largely unevidenced. And almost certainly premature.
More likely, I suggest, it’s evidence of your dislike of Boris. Which isn’t necessarily helpful in determnng the best path ahead.
Your comparisons are similarly useless since the countries aren’t at the same point on the curve
Both you and aljones909 miss my point, I fear. Which I will now make even clearer.
Thomas is claiming Boris, etc, are mangling the crisis. The figures I cite – so far as they go – provide NO evidence of this. And they they don’t (and Thomas provides no evidence at all). How good are they? Not very, as you both point out and I note in my following para (much is contained in ‘etc’, which is why I repeated it THREE times!):
“Of course we don’t yet know how far along different counties are with the epidemic, etc, etc, etc. Which is why your claim is, as I noted, largely unevidenced. And almost certainly premature.”
Note, further: “premature”. NONE of us know. I certainly don’t. Thomas claimed to, which is why I complained.
This recent piece from a cell biologist at University College London in The Guardian largely aligns with my own view:
“It’s easy to criticise those in charge, but I can’t overemphasise how difficult these decisions are. There is no one right answer about how to tackle a pandemic caused by an entirely novel virus…There are simply too many unknowns.”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/17/new-data-uk-government-coronavirus-pandemic-measures
I understood your point perfectly well. I just objected to what you used as “evidence” against Thomas. Yes, he clearly doesn’t like Boris. But your numbers don’t counter his case. I think something like “I don’t agree… show me your evidence” would be more appropriate.
I think we are largely quibbling. Although I took it further than your suggested “I don’t agree… show me your evidence”.
Namely, to the Guardian piece’s “No one (currently) knows”. Hence my “premature”.
Quibbling, perhaps. I really dislike useless/meaningless statistics.
Me too!
And that, rather, was my point…
But, enough of that particular hammering. I’ll try to be clearer next time.
Thomas was the one making the claim. sted24 was merely saying there is little evidence so far that the UK is handling this badly, at least not statistical evidence.
Confirmed cases aren’t a useful metric (testing varies widely from country to country). Still, can’t see anything wrong with Boris’ handling of the crisis so far.
Boris Johnson’s initial idea for a strategy was not to impose restrictions on mobility and gatherings of large numbers of people, with the idea to get over with it all fast. But people succeeded in changing his mind, and he is now in line with the rest of Europe, with its strategy to slow down the dissemination of infections as much as possible from the start in order to avoid an untreatable avalanche of the infections.
I wouldn’t bet because of hybris. Hybris always gets me.
Hybris? Is this because you’re a Greek scholar so you spell hubris properly? If so, I think you’re onto something. I’m not ready to be as positive about a Democratic victory in November either. This is not a time for the Dems to rest on their laurels. Trump is far more popular than they realize I think.
Yes, I was taught to transliterate that way so I just can’t get past it. It’s the same reason I make my ones and sevens the European way – the influence of certain language & math teachers that creep into my OCD mind.
I do sevens the European way too, and I can’t write a 7 without the line across it. It’s just wrong.
I didn’t realize this. I’ve lived 10 years in the US and never noticed that everybody wrote the sevens without the litle line accros. This is how US spies, trained to speak fluent German during WWII were caught when they would cut their steak into little pieces, put their knife down, and pick up the pieces.
I guess we figure the line across the top and the tilt of the vertical (7) is enough to distinguish it from a 1.
Over here, the 1 really is 1-shaped even in handwriting; it is not a |, it has an oblique onset line that could be confused with the horizontal line of a 7.
I didn’t know about that. That’s really interesting. It’s only recently I found out that people in the US did that. Two of my siblings lived in the US for a while. One of them, and her future husband, have always commented on the table manners of USians, though they never went into detail. Because of a conversation we were having recently they did, and I learned quite a lot I didn’t know before.
I (a USian) simply learned to cut with my knife in my left hand. I thought the whole switching hands business was absurd.
Every once in a while, a fellow USian comments on my left-handed knife technique.
We (and Brits/Europeans) eat with our knives in our right hands and forks in our left hands. When eating like this, the food is put into the mouth with the tines pointing down, not up.
I also operate my computer mouse with my left hand (I am very strongly right-dominant). I had to when the combination of: Weight lifting, mountain biking, daily activities, and computer work (right hand mouse) started to give me carpal tunnel syndrome in my R wrist.
It only took about 2 weeks to become proficient with the L hand. It’s now better with a mouse than the R hand. (I keep the buttons in their default configuration: L-click with the middle finger and R-click with the index finger.)
I can draw in computer programs left handed using the mouse.
I still can’t write with my left hand to save my life though! Well, very slowly and painfully.
I am weakly right dominant so almost anything goes with me.
Interesting.
“Writing”. Isn’t that what people used to do before keyboards were invented?
I have mild carpal tunnel syndrome, like jblilie, and I’ve trained myself to be almost ambidextrous, to reduce stress on my right hand.
I hold the knife in my right hand though and bring food to my mouth with the fork in my left hand. I don’t switch hands. It kinda freaks me out to see people do this.
I think I do that if I’m holding the fork and knife. People thought I was left handed when I did that. No. Just using my right hand for precise work so lefty needs to step up.
Of course with soft things like an omelette or mac’n’cheese, I’d sooner just use a fork in my right hand.
I use a knife for everything. My forks seem too dull and they hurt my hand to use that way. I guess I’m just delicate.
Since we are talking about cultural differences between American and Europeans, here is another interesting true WW2 anecdotes from one of my high-school teachers. While the American Army had progressed through Belgium, pushing back the Germans, one day an American Jeep stopped in front of my teacher’s house. The driver rang the bell and said that his boss wanted to “wash his hands.” Sure, my teacher’s mother said, “come in” and led the driver and an older man to the kitchen sink. No no, said the driver, “toilet, toilet…” They showed the man to the toilet, and things worked out. The next day, in the newspaper my teacher saw a large photo in the newspaper: the man that visited their toilet was General Patton.
It’s a good idea if you have CTS. It must reduce the likelihood of it getting to the point of needing surgery, and reduce the pain on a daily basis.
I saw an excellent specialist and since my CTS is mild, she prescribed adjustable wrist guards/braces to be worn at night. (I chose the readily available Trainers Choice wrist braces from the pharmacy.) They keep my wrists and palms supported to lessen unnecessary strain. They have done wonders, and I no longer get cramping in my hands while I sleep.
This reminds me of a scene in an old USian movie – the extended family was having dinner and half of them ate in the British style, and half in the American style. The British actors could fool you with their faux American accent, but not with the knife and fork.
And the Inglourious Basterds were caught when one of them signalled for “3 glasses” the American (or British) way.
https://katiewillard21.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/inglourious-basterds_-3-glasses.jpg
Here’s a demo of how Brits and Yanks eat:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xP37PwKAnBk
Haha. I think I’m two people. Probably very Canadian to be like that. I have to say I like the American way just because it’s contrary to snooty eating. It’s very Canadian I think to like that and also to pretend not to like it. I’m a bad Canadian so I’m just going to like it and do the bad American things only when it’s going to annoy others.
I like your spunk! 😎
Mary, you’ve got spunk….. I hate spunk. 😉
I am exceedingly hopeful that you win your bet. What happens to the wager if the Orange Idiot and his enablers call off the election?
Riots happen. We storm the Bastille and get medieval on his ass (if you’ll pardon the epoch mash-up). 🙂
Agreed! I tell my Trump-cult relatives to remember, that they are not the only ones with firepower.
Violence is not the way. Use the force Luke. 😎
I’m strictly anti-violence. But in the extraordinary (and extraordinarily unlikely) event that Donald Trump somehow arrogates to himself the tyrannical power unconstitutionally to cancel a United States presidential election — well, under those extraordinary circumstances, it may well come time (as Mr. Jefferson put it) to refresh the tree of liberty once again.
Absolutely. Citizen violence against the State is *only* justified if the State becomes tyrannical. I really, really don’t think it will happen, but if I ever do (unlikely) I will be buying guns.
Pretty hard to disagree with those sentiments. “There comes a time for all good men to come to the aid of their country.”
Congress controls election scheduling. Trump can’t change/cancel it.
Congress also issues subpoenas that Trump ignored. I put nothing past The Despicable One.
It’s one thing to ignore subpoenas when it’s been done by other presidents and the DOJ rationalizes it. It’s another thing for a president to claim powers that the constitution clearly states belong to congress.
With all of the examples Trump and the RP have given us so far I don’t think you should have too much confidence in that. I’ve got none at all. The Constitution clearly grants Congress the authority, the responsibility, to provide oversight of the executive branch and Trump has routinely ignored that and ordered others to do the same. I don’t think your distinction is a distinction at all.
I think the only calculation Trump ever makes is “can I get away with it?” And he has no clue how government works or what the Constitution says, nor does he care.
I think the probability of Trump canceling the election is low, but not because he feels inhibited by the rules.
No, it’s not clear at all. What does oversight even mean and how is it accomplished? That’s all open for interpretation.
Whereas “The Congress may determine the Time of chusing the Electors, and the Day on which they shall give their Votes; which Day shall be the same throughout the United States.” is fairly clear and impossible for the president to undermine.
Do you really not know what the term congressional oversight means? Try Wikipedia for starts.
Do you really think that the clause you quoted “is fairly clear and impossible for the president to undermine”? Pardon me, but that seems delusional to me. As we have ample evidence of it is entirely possible for people in high office to undermine and ignore all kinds of laws and rules and even to get away with it as long as there are enough other people in government in the right place that will allow them to do so. What leads you to believe that the same ethically challenged Trump appointees and RP senators that have provided cover and legal rationalizations for Trump’s illegal actions so far will suddenly be brought up short because of the bit you quoted from the constitution? Because you think it’s not open to interpretation? Aside from the fact that humans are absolute geniuses at constructing any number of bizarre interpretations to fit whatever agenda they may have, what about being overridden by another authority? Like declaring a state of emergency? Trumpsters would swallow that shit whole and ask for more.
No doubt you and I think the clause you quoted is not only quite clear but would support enforcement of it. What I don’t get is why you think this is the line Trump supporters and the RP just definitely won’t cross.
I can’t count the number of times in the past couple of years people have said something like “well yeah he did that, but this will stop him.” But “this” didn’t. Or, “If he does that finally many of his supporters will see how bad he is,” only they didn’t. Or, “if he does that it will finally be too much even for the RP senators and they’ll take steps to rein him in,” only it wasn’t.
Congress’s authority to provide oversight of the executive branch is derived largely directly from the Constitution, but yes, also from later public laws and House and Senate rules. Here are a few examples from the Constitution.
See Article 1 Section 8.
And of course Article 2 Section 4.
The November election includes a host of governorships and other state offices, as well as plenty of mayoral races and other local offices. The federal part is but a small portion of it.
The feds cannot cancel the state elections, and if the states are having those, there is no sense in not including the federal bits as well.
Trump doesn’t have the power to cancel a presidential election.
I am not quite as sanguine about the election as some of you. I know what the laws say, but Trump is a lawless person who truly believes that he is above any law. I have also read about the myriad powers that the President can invoke if he declares a National Emergency. Although I think that this is fairly unlikely, I don’t see it as out of the realm of possibility.
One thing on our side is the fact that Trump is a coward. Bullies generally are. The dangerous ones are those who are willing to sacrifice themselves for a higher cause. I can’t see Trump doing that. He will go down whimpering, blaming and boasting.
It’s Wm. Barr and his ilk I’m more worried about.
While I wish and hope the virus goes away quickly with minimal deaths, it does create several new angles on which the Dems can attack the GOP.
One is the fact that they instituted a single-payer-like system as an emergency measure. So obviously, they believe it works, even if they won’t admit it.
Another is the fact that they oppose vote by mail for the general public (because that makes it easier for the general public to vote, which is bad for them), when nobody in their right mind right now should be insisting people physically go to a crowded polling station.
Now all Americans, high and low, are getting a taste of what social safety nets are.
Trump controls the dark side of the force. I wouldn’t bet the farm that he will lose, but maybe a C-note.
I would bet on there not even being an election in November.
(No need to explain the reasons why I might lose this bet — a couple of sensible people have already given some reasons here when I’ve said this on other threads… one of whom patiently and plausibly explained to me in 2016 why Trump would not win then.)
My other prediction is that in Trump’s second term, the ‘liberal media’ in non-US countries will drop their politely maintained distinction between Trump and the US, and simply report his insanity as the actions of “The US”.
That thought has crossed my mind more than once as well.
Trump has no control over election scheduling – congress controls it. Even if there isn’t an election, Trump’s term expires Jan. 20.
Yup, and with Pelosi as House speaker, she wouldn’t allow a suspension though perhaps a reschedule. If there is no election, come January 20th, we won’t have a government.
Which may be an improvement.
Nor a functioning nation to be governed.
Trump has no trouble ignoring the constitution. If the election isn’t held, regardless of the reason, he’ll claim that he needs to stay in power until “things are sorted out”, presumably by the courts with Trump delaying and appealing at every opportunity. I can’t see the GOP telling him that he and Pence have to leave so Pelosi can run things.
Trump can attempt something like that, but it won’t matter. After Jan. 20 won’t be president. The D.C. police won’t support him, the FBI won’t support him, and the military won’t support him.
President Pelosi will order the Secret Service to remove him.
How about $50 on whether there will be a Presidential election in November. You on?
You’re starting to develop a habit! 😉
Oh… I’m not a betting person and didn’t mean it literally, but as I’ve raised this three times now on your website… Ok — how about a donation to Doctors Without Borders from my side.
If I win, you could donate it to your ducks or anything you feel appropriate!
(MSF or any other charity you nominate of course.)
I’d put that and more into the stock market!
I’d certainly bet on Trump losing. But it won’t be a slam dunk, no matter how badly he blunders.
There’s zero doubt Trump will lose the popular vote again, but the electoral college still strongly favors Trump.
Start with the 2016 results, and move both Pennsylvania and Michigan to the Dem column, and Trump still wins with 270 E.C. votes!
It basically comes down to Wisconsin, and Trump is doing fairly well there.
But turnout will be overwhelming, and that will favor the Dem candidate. Trump would lose even without this latest massive blunder.
(play with E.C. scenarios here: https://www.270towin.com/)
In 58 prior US presidential elections, the loser of the popular vote has managed to win the electoral college just five times. No president has ever done it twice, and no incumbent has ever won reelection while losing the popular vote. Also, since pollsters began keeping track of such things, there’s never been any president who’s ever gone a full four-year term without once having an approval rating above 50%.
There’re first times for everything, I reckon, but I doubt even Donald Trump has that yooge a lucky horseshoe stuffed up his ass.
There is a first time for everything. In 2016 a lying, cheating, pussy-groping, tax-evading, Russian stooge got elected. What more do you need?
I’ve had enough. And I’m sincerely hoping this nation has as well.
I don’t think the E.C. (and the Senate) has been this unfairly skewed before. Trump could lose by even more than he did in 2016 and still win the E.C.
OTOH, his popularity rating really hasn’t moved since before he was elected. He’s almost exactly as popular with the public now as he was the day they elected him.
So, while his absolute approval rating is surprisingly and historically low, in relative terms he’s not any worse off today than he was the day the public elected him.
Yes. And this is a thing that really depresses me. It really lowers my opinion of us humans. Either too gullible, too stupid, too mean or some combination thereof.
Frustrating isn’t it? Politics is all about coming to agreement as to how we all can live together best. But, that naturally involves competition, and competition pushes us to subvert the very process we use to come to agreements. It’s rather perverse, but it’s all we have.
Trump’s approval rating has consistently been three or four points below the 46.1% of the popular vote he got in 2016 (which was 1.1% less than what Mitt Romney lost with in the 2012 election). Trump won the electoral college by drawing an inside straight by getting 77,000 more votes across three swing states — with all the help Russia could give him against the least popular candidate nominated by the Democratic Party since its founding in the early 19th century.
Sure, a poker player can suck out an inside straight two hands in a row, but I wouldn’t bet on it. And you won’t find any players who count on doing so sitting at the final table of the World Series of Poker tournament.
Trump’s approval has dropped since he was elected.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
His starting point ~46% aligns with the election numbers, but his approval drops right away (perhaps because of the insane attempt to convince people the inauguration crowds were bigger than they were).
Since that initial drop, he’s been very steady at 40-44%.
And 2016 was an historically close election in the EC.
We got der Drumpfenfuhrer by just 77,000 votes distributed in MI, WI, and PA.
$500 on Trump to win.
Maybe it’s just that I’m a cynical old curmudgeon, I think there are too many deplorables who still support Trump. If Biden is nominated and Sanders supporters won’t vote for him, we are lost.
Well, to turn Adlai Stevenson’s famous quotation on its head, even if every nonthinking deplorable votes for Trump, that won’t be enough — he still needs a majority (in the swing states that control the EC outcome anyway).
To turn Lincoln upside down: You can fool enough of the people enough of the time.
The Trump-Republican motto.
The ability to fool some of the people all of the time is the margin on which Donald Trump has staked his claim to fame over the course of a lifetime.
Democratic voter turnout was down 26% In 2016. That has to be what gave the election to tRump. That’s not going to happen in 2020.
Yes, keep your eyes on: MI, WI, PA, VA, FL, OH.
So far, Uncle Joe is doing great where it counts.
Trump has to have fully alienated every independent, Obama08/12+Trump16 voter, and every voter that just said, what the heck, give him a try.
His core is lost (to sanity) forever. I have many of them on FB instantiating the 5th Avenue Effect over Trump’s speeches on COVID-19 and his handling of it.
Never underestimate the power of human stupidity.
Unless Donald perishes from coronavirus it is unclear how the the ideologically blind American people would not vote against him. I am not saying they will vote for him but they have to willing chose against the very twisted picture he paints himself to be.
I wish I was wrong, but short of Donald pronouncing he is an atheist, he will probably not lose.
I remember in the earlier days of the virus in the US when Italy was really being swamped, someone on facebook called everyone a cuck and told them to come to the US. An Italian posted “just stop. My neighbours are dying. Stop” and others told the person to get his news from non US sources. I haven’t seen much of this mouthing off since then.
Two days ago, I saw a bumper sticker that read: “It’s Trump’s America, fuck your feelings”. Those cultists are classy people I tells ya, but that’s what we’re up against.
Trump is a very dangerous man. He should be defeated and then arrested. I think the nominee will be Biden, even though I like Bernie’s policy positions. Biden is an experienced politician that a large number of people trust. The Democratic Party must be disciplined enough to mount a massive campaign. I predict that Trump will lose, and House and Senate go Democratic. This quarantine period is a good time to take a closer look at politics. Hopefully, people will do just that.John J. Fitzgerald
Trump thrives on his idea that he is popular. he gets all his kicks from the direct feedback and adulation he gets on his rallies. But now the virus is getting into the way, and I think he will become unhinged quite quickly, and self-combust. I’m not worried.
I am too unsure to place a bet, but my hunch is that Trump might win against Biden, and Biden is the likely candidate to run against him.
In times of crisis, people tend to vote for whoever is in charge. The Republicans were inept in handling the situation so far (I think they are generally incompetent).
However, as time goes on, various measures will be up and running and will give Trump many opportunities to look like a strong leader — which the State Media on Fox News will turn into top grade promotional material. I already see the bald eagles fly, and how the Freedom Force of True Patriotic Americans are fighting The Evil “Chinese Virus”. In face of a the inevitable catastrophe, Trump might even be forced to do good, which will return in popularity.
Sanders has a good chance, because his talking points match exactly what is needed now. You will have a humanitarian crisis in the USA soon. 30 million or so Americans are uninsured. An additional 50 million or so are under-insured. Quibble with the numbers as you like, there’s a catastrophe unfolding in slow motion in the USA. That’s the grim reality of the American pro-bankruptcy and pro-death attitude towards health, widespread even among Democrats. And that while you spend about 5% more GDP than comparable countries in the West.
Not looking good.
I think Biden certainly gives Dems their best chance of losing. By any metric Biden is an objectively inferior candidate to Clinton, and his campaign is somehow even less well-organized than hers was.
But I also think this mishandling of a major crisis will be Trump’s downfall. We were heading for a market correction in any case but now it’s hit far faster and harder and even if markets rally somewhat in the next seven months they’re not going to get back to where they were.
My predictions are Biden wins, governs weakly, either doesn’t run in 2024 or loses to a newer, better Trump-like Republican. I wouldn’t even be surprised if Mitch McConnell held another SCOTUS appointment up this time for four years instead of one.
“By any metric Biden is an objectively inferior candidate to Clinton”
Except the most important one: likeability.
Wrong. In head-to-head matchups against Bernie Sanders, Biden is beating him by bigger margins than Clinton did.
He’s taller too! You did say “any metric”. 😉
I made the same kind of bet in the 80’s on the 49ers losing the Super Bowl contest. I bet against the Niners winning with the idea that I would be glad to pay if the Niners won and have a consolation prize if they lost. I lost the $100.
I think it is a good bet but don’t plan on spending those simoleans any time soon. I hear all flights to Simolea have been cancelled. 😉
FWIW, I think you’ve made a good bet, especially if Biden is the candidate.
I certainly hope you win the bet – I’m not so sure that I would have made it myself, though. I thought you had posted pictures of some duck dinners recently, but am happy to be put right.
The FiveThirtyEight site reports that the aggregate of polls shows that Trump’s disapproval percentage is 52.9% and the approval percentage is 42.9%. With only minor fluctuations, this differential has barely budged in years. Thus, at the moment, the virus has not changed few minds. We’ll see over the next few weeks if things significantly changed. Also, FiveThirtyEight reports that turnout has not been particularly great. The virus may hold down voting totals in the future. All this means that we cannot take it for granted that Trump is a sure loser. His cult can’t be counted out.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/historic-turnout-in-2020-not-so-far/
Yes, we definitely can’t be complacent. Not only could the virus gum up the voting works, I expect Trump and the GOP to find new ways to cheat. such as increased voter suppression for “health reasons” in states with GOP governors.
Yeah, I could see the governor of Florida locking down democratic areas, like southern Florida, and keep the GOP areas open. The coronavirus is an unknown factor that makes the 2020 election up in the air imo. I wouldn’t worry so much if there were more states with mail-in voting and more states with Democratic governors.
And now that SCOTUS is no longer hearing oral arguments and has essentially slowed to a stop, Trump’s financial records will more than likely still be concealed from the public come election time (assuming Roberts wouldn’t want to be revealed as the worst judicial hack in recent memory). I was hoping Trump’s financial records would be another nail in the coffin of his reelection.
50/50 Jerry. If Covid 19 recedes over the summer and autumn (BIG if admittedly), Trump will portray himself as saviour of the nation and you can kiss good bye to your 100 bucks.
Even if the pandemic recedes, the economy won’t be back for a lot longer than that.
Yes, the economy will not be coming back for a long time. The pain will be particularly acute in such industries as entertainment and service. Tickets won’t be bought for sporting and cultural events; the many millions who work in the restaurant industry will not get back their lost tips. The question is whether the pending recession, perhaps depression, will hurt Trump. David Leonhardt and Neil Irwin explain our depressing (no pun intended) immediate future.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-economy-recession.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/upshot/coronavirus-economy-crisis-demand-shock.html?searchResultPosition=4
The US will want a strong stable leader for difficult times, and Trump is a known quantity for the half of the US who hasn’t noticed anything unusual about him.
“Half”…not even close.
Sorry, but yes, close. His approval rating has just “slipped” to 44%. That means it was above it. From here in Germany, with everything that has been going on these last few years, and now with Trump trying to steal a vaccine being developed here, nearly half the US approves of him.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/296060/trump-job-approval-rating-slips.aspx
A single poll isn’t that useful. Gallop has usually shown Trump to be more popular than he really is. A weighted poll aggregate provides a more accurate picture.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
Half? No way. The cult is only 1/3 of the population.
True, but still shameful.
Which may yet drive the Grand Old Party to extinction, once the Trump fever breaks.
Trump has lowered the bar on what we will put up with from a president, and has not only gotten away with most all of it, he’s created his own army of very vocal followers who approve of this; the most ardent ones seeing him as their personal savior. All else is Fake News.
He and his grifter children will never do jail time too the outright frauds they’ve done while Dad’s was in office, his tax returns; will never be publicly available to show how much money he’s made charging the Secret Service to stay in hotels, etc.; he’ll be able to have his own TV show on Fox doing whatever he wants; and he will continue to blame Obama, Hillary and McCain (and everybody else) until he is dead. And then we’ll have the conspiracy theorists arguing for who was responsible forever.
My bet is that even if Biden wins, we will never, ever, be rid of Trump.
I’d love to see tRump and maybe more of his enablers in orange jump suits. Color to match the skin tone. Win/win. Once he’s out of office…
Don’t you think Bush’s enablers, Cheney et al were far worse? They actually started wars, tortured and actually vanished people (phyically, as opposed to merely cancelling them as we now do), killed tens and tens of thousands, or more.
I think I began to lose Hope, as it were, in Obama when he arrived and immediately said “Let’s move on.” And all was forgiven.
Sure it was horrible for Trump to lock up immigrant kids, for example. But how many did Bush, or Obama and Hilary for that matter, kill? Be interesting to see the math.
Similarly with Muslims being excluded v killed…and so on.
Well, the odds on Trump in Las Vegas have steadily dropped. Trump has gone from heavy favorite to Even money today. Biden is +105 (bet $100 to win $105.) If you think Sanders still has a chance, you can clean up, as he’s +$3000.
Even money? That’s pretty depressing.
Six weeks ago he was the prohibitive favorite.
That is because of the strong economy, which will be so no more I think.
Right but it could easily bounce back by November. I’m not saying it will, of course, but it could.
Indeed it could. Once quarantine is lifted, people will be hot to party, travel and spend. Could be a sharp V recession as we economists call them. I hate to root for a bad economy, but if that is what it takes to get Trump out…
If the various lock-downs continue through the Summer and millions are still out of work, they won’t have the money to party and travel, etc. If the stock market rebounds, it won’t mean much to the majority of Americans in the “real” economy.
For sure, the longer the lockdowns last, the less likely will be a quick bounce back.
Yes, the stock market doesn’t have to recover all its losses for the financial outlook to be positive. Plus Trump is somewhat insulated from blame as he didn’t cause the pandemic, just make it worse in ways that are hard to prove. He knows full well how to play the victim as he does so daily.
Word has it Trump wants to meet with Andrew Yang to talk about free money, that could be very popular.
I don’t know about the Yang part but, yeah, you can see the gear turning in Trump’s brain. He’s now going to try to buy re-election at both the corporate and the voter level. There’s some justification to helping folks through this crisis, of course, but he’s not doing it for us but himself. As Bill Maher likes to say, “I can’t prove it but I know it’s true.”
I wouldn’t bet nobody nothin.
We live in deplorable times.
I believe you have landed on my sentiments or very close. Not really much for gambling other than cards and after the 2016 election I have no confidence in the American public to do the right or correct thing politically or on much else. If I gambled on what should come naturally to people it would be an easy bet but as said, so many people are lost today there is no bottom to this civilization.
Trump may well win if he gets his $1,000 per adult payout “vote for me because I sent you this bribery” approved. Nothing says vote R better than a bRibe.
$1,000 won’t do squat for people out of work for months.
Sending $1000 checks to everyone is crazy. People like me who don’t need it will just save it. The relief should be focused on the people being unemployed by the crisis. Double UI benefits for the duration of the crisis and make benefits instantly available to those being laid off.
What about us self employed folks? We are not eligible for UI ?
Hell, one large won’t even cover hookers’n’blow for some folks. Others might even just waste it. 🙂
As I said before, it’ll be Biden (or whoever Dem) by a landslide. Reason is, tRump has a big, dedicated base who turn out to the poles in strong numbers. However, Dems now are so pissed at tRump and Moscow Mitch, they wouldn’t dare miss this one. I think turnout among Dems and Dem leaning voters will be very, very high. It will overwhelm tRump’s base and send him back to doing reality TV. Think of Clinton’s popular vote on steroids. $500.
I think tRump will lose by a landslide. A large death toll will help defeat tRump, but his followers can be beyond all reason. A friend of my wife was getting her hair done 4 days ago and listened to an enthusiastic discussion by a group of ladies as to the “great job” tRump was doing fighting the coronaviris. Maybe they will wake up if they know someone who dies.
Maybe they will wake up if they know someone who dies.
I really doubt it. We normally think of “knowing” as getting new data to evaluate to determine if it should influence our understanding of the world around us. A cult member has to be brainwashed for days or weeks to pull him or her out of the trans. But, tRump will lose anyway, simply because people who are capable of being fed up are now unequivocally fed up.
They won’t wake up. 5th Avenue Effect.
It seemed likely he would lose last time. So likely, and it was such common knowledge, that too many Dems stayed home. And got a big shock by the next day.
So, shhhhhhhhh on the “RumpsTay iz gonna OosLay“
+1,000,000,000
Take NOTHING for granted! Every single vote counts!
(Unless you live in California. Or New York. Or Massachusetts… God, I hate the Electoral College.)
“makes daily statements about it so palpably stupid that even a “deplorable” can see through them”
I am MUCH less sanguine on this than you are Jerry!
I still have several FB interlocutors who refuse to budge an inch on His Orange Greatness, Greatest President of All Time™.
It is truly amazing! Never underestimate the power of human stupidity.
Yes- the stupidity of the statements, even if identified by a deplorable, merely confirms his dominance for them and makes their continuing victory even more entertaining for them.
After the 2016 election, I find some wisdom in an observation by novelist Craig Johnson: “Horse sense is the good judgment that keeps horses from betting on people.”
I wrote the following to a group of friends the other day. See if this makes sense to you all:
“… here is something I saw the other night on Twitter:
“The coronavirus partisan divide is real. Twice as many Democrats (60%) are changing plans or taking precautions than Republicans (31%).
88% of Republicans are satisfied with the government’s response. Among Democrats? 11%.”
While you can’t fool Mother Nature, I am reminded once again you can definitely fool human nature, and human beings. In other words, the political fallout from this pandemic for Trump, if any, will ultimately be determined by how the American voters perceive how well/poorly the Trump administration handled this crisis. And based upon the above tweet, what we are seeing is that public opinion is still consistently divided according to ideological preconceptions. When 88% of Republicans think the government has handled this crisis well, and only 11% of Democrats do, ultimately it won’t matter how many people get infected, or live or die. If 50,000 – 100,000 people die, Democrats will say “look how many people Trump killed,” and Republicans will say “look how many people Trump saved: things would have been much worse had there been a Democratic president in charge.”
In other words, nothing has changed. “Truth” about the coronavirus still comes down to how people will interpret its aftermath, and all indications are that this judgment will still fall along party lines.”
I think it will be close, and if Biden picks Klobuchar and think they will do well, but don’t underestimate the ability of a sizable chunk of America to support Trump no matter what.
Larry Smith
It is going to come down to what Independents think, and the polls point that this part of the electorate does not like Trump. The GOP has shrunk considerably since Trump’s takeover, but this shrinking has made it more concentrated which some mistake as a strength- it’s not. There are at least 12 million more registered democrats than republicans, if we get out the vote (which 2018 proved we can) Trump’s rabid base won’t be able to keep him in office.
I heard plenty of “life-long GOP voters” call in to my local NPR station and say, more or less verbatim: “I hate Trump. Give me a Dem I can vote for.”
Biden fits the description just fine.
You have life-long GOPers listening to NPR in your area? Unicorns!
Biden’s chances will be lessened if he doesn’t pick a progressive VP, and that’s not Klobuchar.
But, there’s always the upside of Republicans not taking covid-19 seriously, and not taking precautions. 🙂
No matter how much you dislike Republicans, that’s not an upside.
Your comment reminds me of a novel I enjoyed, World Without End by Ken Follett. It takes place in 14th century England during the Black Death. The protagonists are intelligent, rational, and humane; their enemies are dogmatic and power-hungry. [SPOILER ALERT] The plot proceeds thus:
Protagonist: Look, those who tend to the sick end up becoming sick and dying themselves! We should separate the sick from the healthy/wash our hands/have caregivers wear masks!
Antagonist: How dare you utter such blasphemy! The only cure for the dread disease is total submission to God (and me, His representative on Earth)!
[Protagonists take protective measures, mostly survive]
[Antagonists refuse to take protective measures out of pride, tend to die]
[A lot of horrible suffering ensues, but protagonists prevail in the end and live happily ever after]
I dunno. Who was it who said “never underestimate the power of stupid people in large numbers”? There is no better description of the American electorate that I know. Want proof? When/if this virus pandemic and travel restrictions end, I invite you to meet my neighbors.
And my relatives….
…and mine…sigh. All of whom have been sucking the Fox news teet for years; and unfortunately for our country that milk poisons the mind.
Right on. It’s an echo chamber, and they truly believe that any negative reporting re Trump is fake news, are actions of the deep state, or the work of the Christian hating, liberal socialists of the Democratic Party.
And my one conservative facebook friend. Bought her a subscription to National Review, in the hopes of drawing her away from the likes of Alex Jones, one of her trusted sources. But now… this virus? A conspiracy against the President!
…and my clients
Dunno who said that, but ol’ HL Mencken said something similar: “Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people.”
Goes a long way toward accounting for the Trump phenomenon.
I was Jerry’s “mark” during the last presidential election. Sadly I won. This time around I’m too unsure to bet. I think Trump will have a better-than-even chance at winning the electoral vote. Memories are short, and people will forget his most assinine comments about the virus. Many have already forgotten that he was saying stupid things about the virus just last week. And the economy will recover quickly enough.
“memories are short”
Yah, Biden’s got to be careful criticizing Trumps response and predicting gloom and doom. If things are well on their way back in October, Trump will throw those words back at him.
“And the economy will recover quickly enough.”
Now that’s a bet I wouldn’t want to take.
I think you grossly underestimate the stupidity of the deplorables. They cannot see beyond their noses and deny the reality of what they see beyond that because of what their dear leader has told them to believe. The deplorables are just like the duffases that appear on Moscow square every year and wail about Stalin’s death and pray for his return.
But, I’d be willing to wager $500 buckaroos that the orange-haired menace will go down in flames in November only because there are many more rational, sane people in this country who are more than ready to boot this taint wipe of a human being to the garbage dump of ‘murkin history. Their eagerness to get to their polling places as soon as possible is inspiring.
I’d be willing to bet $100 against Trump just for the satisfaction of voting against the bastard.
Betting, not voting.
Traveling around Central Florida I see many Trump signs and more than a few Trump 2020 installations. By “installations” I mean multiple signs, flags, posters… rabid Trump supporters. I see very few Democratic signs… a few Bernie bumper stickers no Biden at all.
My area has always been racist but I have never seen as many Confederate Battle Flags displayed proudly. I do not see African Americans turning out in large numbers and Latin Americans are not a political force around here. Small business is 100% behind Republican politics, all public television sets (bars, restaurants, waiting areas are tuned to Fox News if no sports available.
No universities in my area to speak of, church parking lots are full and churches are building or remodeling.
My county was 61% Trump in 2016. I predict he will do at least as well in 2020. On the positive side, Central Florida is the only area of the country I know well politically.
I wish I shared the Professor’s optimism,
Paul
I’ve already rambled on about this in a previous post but all of the emphasis and energy on who can beat Trump is a waste of brain cells. IF the election is fair, IF there is no hacking or other corruption, a broom handle would win in a landslide against Trump. We are focusing on the wrong thing. The most urgent concern is how secure the voting machines are.
Please read Jenny Cohn’s work:
https://twitter.com/jennycohn1/media
in 2016:
46.7% of eligible voters did not vote.
Hillary won the popular vote by approx 3 million.
Third-party candidates and write-ins were another 9 million who did not vote Trump.
Of the Dems who did not vote, the demographics of those who didn’t vote were young people and POC.
There are a lot of people out there who didn’t vote in 2016 that are thoroughly disgusted with Trump. We only need a tiny percentage of those voters to wipe Trump off the map.
We don’t need to worry about who wins the Dem nomination. We need to make sure that we have a fair election, that the polls are accessible and that the BMDs are not compromised. We do not have a functioning FEC to protect the polls.
“We only need a tiny percentage of those voters to wipe Trump off the map.”
But they have to live in the right 3 or 4 states, preferably in Wisconsin.
Yep. Wisconsin is going to decide the fate of the world in 8 months.
And Biden better the hell spend time there, unlike Hillary.
Suddenly I feel powerful.
tomh said: “But they have to live in the right 3 or 4 states…”
And that is the entire story. I live in California. Registered Dem, and I voted for Warren in the primary. In the general, I’ll vote Libertarian, as I always do, because why the hell not? The Dems could nominate Pol Pot/Charles Manson and win California walking away. They don’t need my vote and can’t use it.
If any of us REALLY gave a shit, we would have already moved to Wisconsin.
Heard this idea somewhere on the internet:
Bloomberg could just pay to move 100 thousands liberals from California to Wisconsin and Michigan and lock up the election for the Dems. After the election they can move back to California.
“Bloomberg could just pay to move 100 thousands liberals from California to Wisconsin and Michigan”
Bloomberg and the NIH should also sue the shit out of Fox News for divulging lies that result in numerous deaths (medium age of a Fox viewer is 66).
Sorry, median age is 66.
And also Trump for the same reason.
I did that the day I was born!
Ron Johnson — WTF, GBJ? The consensus pick as dumbest US senator. How in the world did you cheeseheads put a boob like that in office?
Damned if I know. He came in with Scott Walker in ’10. We also have Americas second dumbest congressman, Glenn Grothman.
On the other hand, we have Tammy Baldwin who I actually will claim ownership of.
I’d trade you both of my US senators — Rubio and Scott — and a congressperson to be named later, for one Tammy Baldwin.
You kidding? My momma didn’t raise no dummies!
GBJ:
Just saw that your boy Ron Johnson was one of just eight US senators — all Republicans, natch! — to vote against the cononavirus emergency aid package today.
You have to be a Bond villain to vote against an aid package as well stupid. If you just let people suffer and lose their jobs, the economy tanks.
@Ken: It is outrageous. But he’s in line with the rest of the WI Republicans. Every single Republican congressman voted against it in the House.
MI, WI, PA, VA, FL
But especially the first three.
They are there. As long as they can get to a voting booth and the machine is secure.
Also, Hillary was the second most unpopular person ever to run as a major-party nominee for president, right behind the first most unpopular ever: Donald Trump himself.
Say what one will about old Uncle Joe Biden, no one seems to HATE him. He won’t drive any of those “Flight 93 election”-style voters toward Donald Trump.
On the one hand I fear Trump can pull a rabbit out of his hat. On the other, I figure that he hasn’t gained many supporters since 2016. There also have to be many Dems that “crossed the aisle” due to Hillary-hate and gave Trump a shot. Surely they won’t be voting for Trump again. I think Biden turns off way fewer Dems than Hillary did.
Why doesn’t every state just switch to vote-by-mail right now. There is no excuse anymore. Oregon did away with those foolish voting booths 25 years ago and is much the better for it. Sure, a lot of states let you request an absentee ballot, but that doesn’t compare to all mail-in ballots. If you don’t want to buy a stamp you can drop it in a box–libraries and other places have them in Oregon. Would increase turnout and keep people safe.
After the debacle in LA County this month you can expect to see very registered voter in LA County receive a mail ballot.
Law provides for anyone who wants one to have one. Also, there is no postage required. Couldn’t be easier than that.
It shouldn’t be a choice. Get rid of the voting booths.
Voting by mail in LA County for the primary was very smooth. I could even go online after to make sure they received it. Not sure what happens if they hadn’t, though.
LA County’s problem was at the poll places – their KnowInk Poll Pads did not function as hoped for, and people couldn’t check in quickly. At the same time, they had gone to vote centers which drastically reduced the number of sites for people to vote at. All of this would have been mitigated by vote by mail. The Secretary of State will probably require them to mail ballots to everyone so to avoid this situation in the future.
Yes, I wasn’t disagreeing with you, just saying that mail was the way to go.
Or just online voting with mail-in available for the non-digitals. I just filled out the Census 2020 online in about 5 minutes so I don’t see why voting needs to be any different. Sure, there are security and verification issues but those can and should be dealt with.
After filling out the census here in WA, yeah, about 5 mins, and we also do mail-in voting state wide. It’s really simple: Democrat administrations want people to vote and believe in 1 person 1 vote, Republicans don’t believe in this and squander people’s endeavors. Time will tell if Republicans’ efforts turn this country into an authoritarian/theocratic system. Nothing lasts forever it seems, and history gets lost in the mist.
Never, ever online voting. XKCD explains why succinctly: https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/voting_software.png
I’m a software engineer so I definitely get the issue. The reason is that both software and physical voting can be hacked. For one thing, no voting system is 100% non-digital anyway. I doubt that campaign workers add up separate reports by hand. Even if they did, they could be bribed, someone could gain access to the tallies, etc.
Most of us bank online and that seems to work. I suspect that some of the problems are due to states not really knowing how to evaluate such things and they’re being sold junk by unscrupulous or lazy contract software developers.
Somewhere in the world I suspect they’ve been able to perfect online voting. Let’s find out and copy it, changing the master password of course. 😉
That inevitably brings the Not Invented Here (NIH) people, rejecting an elegant solution unless it has a Made in My Country label. Of course labels can be hacked as well.
There is a jaunty and empowered swagger in Trump’s most recent press conferences. He is LOVING this crisis because he gets to be front and centre almost daily. He gets to dole out a thousand dollars to every household, rate his own performance, and be perceived as being transparent/honest w the public Yikes! All the while, he gets to bash the Chinese for the unleashing the “chinese virus” on the world. This has all the earmarks of a politician knowing not to waste a great crisis. He has awoken to the fact that the crisis gives him even more dictatorial power and media presence, and he won’t waste that opportunity. I am afraid that this will only embolden him and his supporters more. 50% +1 he wins. Arghhhhhh
I was thinking the same thing. His claim it will all pass over will soon be forgotten.
Donald’s blunders won’t be forgotten. They’re on video and they’ll be replayed over and over in campaign ads.
https://twitter.com/jheil/status/1240056993290821640
Do not underestimate the gullibility of many voters. Already his approvable is rising and disapprovable falling on 538.
It’s really going to come down to how well Biden/Sanders is able to hit Trump with his own words. Should be easy, but Dems are bad at offense. Hire the correct people, use Republican fear tactics, trust in common sense. Many readers here don’t trust in common sense; I’m dispirited by that, but not surprised. One thing about me I’ve learned; I’m way more interested in politics than my friends, family and other Americans even in these times; that’s a bit depressing. I’ll have another beer.
Proof doesn’t matter. They simply do not care.
I would have thought that was a pretty good bet until I read an article in last week’s New Yorker about the Trump campaign. Be ready to hit your ATM the day after the election.
I hope you’re not making many of these bets, since your opponent(s)have to vote for Trump to win the $100.00!
I’ll repeat, for fun: President Barf loses the popular-vote by millions more than in 2016, but he nevertheless secures the Electoral College.
This single Twilight Zone episode runs for eight seasons.
Mother of Mercy, THAT should finally spell the end of
Ricothe Electoral College — when, and if, sanity, and a due regard for the principles of representative democracy, should ever be reestablished in these United States.Whatever purpose it may once have served, there remains no defensible justification for the anachronism that is the electoral college. As to every other elective office in this land — from local dog-catcher on upwards — we go with the seemingly sensible notion that the candidate who gets most votes actually wins.
Congratulations Jerry, you’ll be $100 richer.
Trump will lose. The market will give back all gains under the Trump administration which itself would be disqualifying for a second term but he did so with massive deficit spending that we all will inherit.
Imagine the number of US COVID cases and deaths come November. Trump’s goose is cooked so that Jerry can dine on duck.
What I would really like to know is why that old, socialist fool is continuing the fight. It is over “Bernie”. You assembled a group of young idealists by promising things you could not possibly deliver. In other words, you are a liar. Go home.
I think you are fairly sure of a win. When you collect you can at least inform your mate he was a winner too. You’d have enough of a win to be able to take him out to a duck dinner too. Crossed my fingers for you. A win for you is a win for all; good luck! ☘
Now careful Darwin old boy. When I talked like that the other day people were offended.
I think the brass coloured pipe TRUMPET will still win. As an outsider, I look upon the American system as so convoluted that all the Don needs to do is say something that the religARSE like and they will get their flocks to endorse him. Of course, it will take the gullible to be corraled again in the confines of their virus pits. Perhaps the CV will force quarantine until after the election. I have never seen a world leader make so many embarrassingly foolish statements as your head of state. I don’t think I have seen a ten-year-old behave that way, and I feel for his wife and kids.
Since 2016, he’s already got the religARSE and their flocks; they can’t vote twice. Perhaps there will be a few more turning 18; won’t matter in the end.
I learned my lesson from last election. I thought, after the whole pussy-grabber scandal, Trump would lose.
Sure Hillary Clinton was an awful campaigner, so up until then I thought he’d win, but I thought that would put Clinton over the top.
I was wrong, I had underestimated the hypocrisy of the religious right.
My moneys on Trump. The Democratic Party just isn’t running a strong enough candidate, and it doesn’t have a clear message right now beyond “Trump bad”.
I agree that the Democrats need a clear message that they have to repeat ad nauseam. One could be that President Dumb has put american lives in jeopardy by not reacting quickly to the threat of the corona virus and not following the advices of medical experts. Right now, they are reacting the same as Hillary Clinton did = Trump bad.
test
I think this is the end of Trump, but “Make America great again” is still very popular. We need a good slogan. Would “Get rid of MORON-16” be too much for a hat?
Gollum Free America!
I wish you luck with your bet, but I suspect you may lose.
It all boils down to the fact of the Electoral College deciding the outcome. It disproportionately gives weight to rural areas at the expense of heavily populated ones.
I don’t think the pandemic, its mishandling by the Trump/Pence administration, or its effect on the overall economy are going to do much to dissuade Trump’s (largely rural, bible-thumping) supporters. They think Pence’s pray-the-virus-away lack of action is sensible, “social distancing” for the rural farmer in Podunk is situation normal (making rural folk less likely to be affected by the pandemic), and while people in service industries and manufacturing are likely to suffer, the farmers largely won’t. People still need to eat, and that means they need to buy what the farmers are selling. You can bet (no pun intended) that there will be plenty of federal agricultural price support programs.
Which comes back to the Electoral College. Its electors — the ones whose votes actually count — are local folks usually selected by the individual states’ political parties. That means that the ones whose votes wield the most power due to the disproportionate weighting of rural areas will likely be those least adversely affected by the pandemic and its secondary effects, likely supporters of the Trump/Pence dominionist policies, court appointments, etc.
In some cases there may be a repeat of what happened in 2016, where Colorado Democrat electors voted for a Republican, and the courts have held that the votes were the electors’ to cast and the state could do nothing about it (the opposite of what courts in Washington state ruled in similar cases). The Supreme Court could have considered those two cases (but has apparently decided not to do so) to resolve the issue.
With a mere 538 actual voters, there’s plenty of opportunity for the party of “dirty tricks” to influence those voters (legally, ethically, or otherwise), and that’s on top of gerrymandering, voter-suppression, foreign interference, etc.
“…while people in service industries and manufacturing are likely to suffer, the farmers largely won’t.”
Why is that important? Farmers? As if they’ve ever swayed an election; service (108 million jobs) and manufacturing (13 million jobs) compared to 22 million farming jobs. Yes, the EC screws everything up for urban voters, but 2020 isn’t hinging on the farmer’s supporting Trump. His support comes from his cult-base which he hasn’t grown and they can’t vote twice. The only way Trump wins is by cheating, which the GOP is very good at, but it didn’t work in 2018. I think many readers here simply underestimate how motivated and pissed-off democrats are (and there’s 12 million more of them). Add to that the many Independents who left the GOP because of Trump and hate him. Trump is screwed in my opinion; and “his” economy, which happened to be his biggest strength is looking to be going bye-bye.
All the numbers you mention are national numbers, but the US doesn’t have a national election for president. It has 50 separate state elections and not all of these are equal. Votes in some states don’t count the same as votes in other states. So national numbers are useless.
I also think that Mark missed a decimal place on the number of farm workers – 2.2 is likely correct.
There are 22 million agriculture and food jobs, but only 2.6 million on farm jobs, full and part time.
https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ag-and-food-statistics-charting-the-essentials/ag-and-food-sectors-and-the-economy/
I agree with most of what you say. But national numbers I don’t believe are useless and past elections, like Obama’s, prove they are useful. At the same time, we didn’t have a willing crook in the White house to accept foreign help and deal in general nefarious transactions.
Biden is gathering an interesting momentum that is quite inspiring to me. Should he keep it going for at least another year, and win, I’ll keep this chinwag dear to me: “Have you ever been called home by the clear ringing of silver trumpets?”
“I have seen the White City, long ago.”
Long ago. Three years of Trump seem thrice as long as eight years of Obama. And yes, I’m using White City as a symbol.
I’m convinced that all of us on this thread, and including our beloved host (sorry Jerry) don’t know a shit from a Baby Ruth bar when it comes to this country’s 2020 elections. I love ya all the same though ’cause I know even the doubters still want the orange stank out the White House. VOTE BLUE!
“And yes, I’m using White City as a symbol.”
I just reread this and went ACK! I’m not emphasizing White City. Goddamns, Trump’s got me cooky. I’ll move along now.
You may have missed a few key points.
There aren’t a million voters for US President, or even a thousand; there are 538 electors, and that’s it.
The Electoral College which is comprised of those voters heavily weights rural votes and discounts votes from heavily populated regions. Farms, practically by definition, are rural.
Never underestimate the stupidity of the American electorate.
More to the point, the stupidity of the Electoral College.
Yeah, the Electoral College is a stupidity multiplier.
Just FYI, the US stock market has just dropped below where it was on Trump’s inauguration.
America is Great Again!